Marshall
Sun Belt
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.1#182
Expected Predictive Rating-2.0#201
Pace70.4#125
Improvement-0.1#201

Offense
Total Offense-0.6#190
First Shot-0.8#202
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#177
Layup/Dunks-2.1#261
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#59
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#238
Freethrows+1.1#106
Improvement+0.3#169

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#186
First Shot-1.4#223
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#101
Layups/Dunks-1.4#229
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#301
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#48
Freethrows-1.9#307
Improvement-0.4#205
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.7% 6.2% 3.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.6 14.9
.500 or above 79.4% 93.5% 71.9%
.500 or above in Conference 93.1% 99.1% 89.8%
Conference Champion 1.2% 3.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round4.7% 6.2% 3.9%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas St. (Home) - 35.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 63 - 10
Quad 413 - 416 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 201   Toledo L 80-90 63%     0 - 1 -14.4 -5.4 -8.3
  Nov 11, 2024 324   Southern Indiana W 77-63 85%     1 - 1 +1.5 -2.1 +3.6
  Nov 16, 2024 356   Bellarmine W 83-62 91%     2 - 1 +5.0 -1.3 +6.3
  Nov 23, 2024 9   @ Purdue L 45-80 3%     2 - 2 -14.6 -17.2 +1.0
  Nov 27, 2024 229   South Carolina St. W 82-53 69%     3 - 2 +22.8 +9.4 +13.8
  Nov 30, 2024 115   @ Western Kentucky L 82-90 26%     3 - 3 -2.6 +5.5 -7.2
  Dec 04, 2024 282   Morehead St. W 80-77 78%     4 - 3 -6.2 +4.7 -10.8
  Dec 07, 2024 117   @ UNC Wilmington L 69-78 27%     4 - 4 -3.7 -5.8 +2.4
  Dec 11, 2024 196   @ Wright St. L 79-88 42%     4 - 5 -8.2 -1.8 -5.7
  Dec 14, 2024 168   Ohio W 79-70 55%     5 - 5 +6.5 +2.3 +3.9
  Dec 21, 2024 248   @ Southern Miss L 66-68 56%     5 - 6 0 - 1 -4.7 +7.4 -12.5
  Dec 28, 2024 175   @ Elon L 59-73 39%     5 - 7 -12.2 -12.5 +0.0
  Jan 02, 2025 184   Texas St. W 77-71 60%     6 - 7 1 - 1 +2.2 +4.7 -2.1
  Jan 04, 2025 111   Troy L 57-58 42%     6 - 8 1 - 2 -0.2 -7.3 +7.0
  Jan 09, 2025 137   James Madison W 80-78 50%     7 - 8 2 - 2 +0.9 +5.0 -4.2
  Jan 11, 2025 254   Georgia Southern W 81-69 74%     8 - 8 3 - 2 +4.2 +8.7 -4.0
  Jan 16, 2025 137   @ James Madison L 64-67 31%     8 - 9 3 - 3 +0.9 -8.1 +9.0
  Jan 18, 2025 309   @ Coastal Carolina W 77-64 68%     9 - 9 4 - 3 +6.9 +7.1 +1.0
  Jan 23, 2025 278   @ Georgia St. W 92-79 61%     10 - 9 5 - 3 +9.0 +16.9 -7.6
  Jan 25, 2025 254   @ Georgia Southern W 71-67 57%     11 - 9 6 - 3 +1.1 -0.6 +1.8
  Jan 30, 2025 278   Georgia St. L 81-85 77%     11 - 10 6 - 4 -13.0 -0.8 -12.0
  Feb 01, 2025 309   Coastal Carolina W 67-62 82%     12 - 10 7 - 4 -6.0 -1.7 -3.5
  Feb 05, 2025 93   Arkansas St. L 72-77 35%    
  Feb 13, 2025 156   @ South Alabama L 65-69 33%    
  Feb 15, 2025 301   @ Louisiana W 73-69 64%    
  Feb 20, 2025 275   @ Old Dominion W 73-70 58%    
  Feb 22, 2025 145   @ Appalachian St. L 65-70 31%    
  Feb 25, 2025 275   Old Dominion W 76-68 78%    
  Feb 28, 2025 145   Appalachian St. W 68-67 54%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 0.5 1.2 1st
2nd 0.2 3.5 4.1 0.4 8.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.4 8.1 1.4 13.0 3rd
4th 1.3 9.7 4.5 0.0 15.5 4th
5th 0.3 7.4 10.7 0.8 19.3 5th
6th 0.1 4.5 14.1 3.1 0.0 21.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 7.6 3.0 0.1 12.1 7th
8th 0.1 2.7 3.1 0.1 6.0 8th
9th 0.3 1.6 0.4 0.0 2.3 9th
10th 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.9 6.0 15.9 25.9 27.2 17.1 6.1 0.9 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 54.1% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1
13-5 10.3% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.2% 1.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.9% 5.9% 5.9% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.8
13-5 6.1% 11.4% 11.4% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 5.4
12-6 17.1% 8.6% 8.6% 14.7 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.2 15.6
11-7 27.2% 5.2% 5.2% 14.9 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.2 25.8
10-8 25.9% 2.9% 2.9% 15.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 25.2
9-9 15.9% 1.8% 1.8% 15.3 0.2 0.1 15.6
8-10 6.0% 0.8% 0.8% 15.6 0.0 0.0 6.0
7-11 0.9% 0.9
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.5 0.7 95.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%
Lose Out 0.4%