Marshall
Sun Belt
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.4#189
Expected Predictive Rating-2.5#209
Pace74.6#52
Improvement-0.2#186

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#208
First Shot-1.0#198
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#208
Layup/Dunks-3.5#303
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#66
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#187
Freethrows+0.5#147
Improvement+0.0#173

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#164
First Shot-1.1#205
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#92
Layups/Dunks-0.5#181
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#314
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#27
Freethrows-3.6#349
Improvement-0.2#194
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.7% 7.1% 3.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.1 14.5
.500 or above 63.5% 73.4% 49.6%
.500 or above in Conference 70.0% 79.3% 57.0%
Conference Champion 6.8% 9.6% 3.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 0.6% 3.3%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round5.7% 7.0% 3.8%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Miss (Away) - 58.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 34 - 74 - 10
Quad 412 - 416 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 212   Toledo L 80-90 66%     0 - 1 -15.5 -5.0 -9.7
  Nov 11, 2024 283   Southern Indiana W 77-63 78%     1 - 1 +4.3 -0.8 +5.1
  Nov 16, 2024 343   Bellarmine W 83-62 89%     2 - 1 +6.4 -0.4 +6.8
  Nov 23, 2024 21   @ Purdue L 45-80 5%     2 - 2 -17.8 -19.8 +0.4
  Nov 27, 2024 245   South Carolina St. W 82-53 73%     3 - 2 +21.3 +7.6 +14.1
  Nov 30, 2024 103   @ Western Kentucky L 82-90 20%     3 - 3 -0.5 +6.1 -5.7
  Dec 04, 2024 280   Morehead St. W 80-77 78%     4 - 3 -6.6 +3.5 -10.1
  Dec 07, 2024 135   @ UNC Wilmington L 69-78 29%     4 - 4 -4.6 -5.8 +1.6
  Dec 11, 2024 156   @ Wright St. L 79-88 33%     4 - 5 -5.9 -0.9 -4.4
  Dec 14, 2024 149   Ohio W 79-70 55%     5 - 5 +6.4 +0.7 +5.4
  Dec 21, 2024 282   @ Southern Miss W 76-74 58%    
  Dec 28, 2024 178   @ Elon L 71-74 38%    
  Jan 02, 2025 140   Texas St. W 73-72 52%    
  Jan 04, 2025 126   Troy L 73-74 48%    
  Jan 09, 2025 115   James Madison L 74-76 44%    
  Jan 11, 2025 231   Georgia Southern W 81-76 69%    
  Jan 16, 2025 115   @ James Madison L 71-79 25%    
  Jan 18, 2025 270   @ Coastal Carolina W 70-69 55%    
  Jan 23, 2025 263   @ Georgia St. W 77-76 54%    
  Jan 25, 2025 231   @ Georgia Southern L 78-79 48%    
  Jan 30, 2025 263   Georgia St. W 80-73 74%    
  Feb 01, 2025 270   Coastal Carolina W 73-66 75%    
  Feb 05, 2025 109   Arkansas St. L 74-76 42%    
  Feb 13, 2025 201   @ South Alabama L 69-72 41%    
  Feb 15, 2025 294   @ Louisiana W 77-74 59%    
  Feb 20, 2025 314   @ Old Dominion W 78-74 65%    
  Feb 22, 2025 193   @ Appalachian St. L 67-70 40%    
  Feb 25, 2025 314   Old Dominion W 81-71 82%    
  Feb 28, 2025 193   Appalachian St. W 70-67 61%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.1 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 6.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.6 2.5 0.7 0.1 9.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.7 2.8 0.5 0.0 10.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.8 5.4 3.6 0.6 0.0 11.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 5.3 4.5 0.8 0.0 11.6 5th
6th 0.4 3.9 5.2 1.2 0.0 10.7 6th
7th 0.1 2.5 5.2 1.8 0.1 9.7 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 4.5 2.7 0.2 8.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 3.0 3.0 0.5 0.0 6.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.6 2.9 0.8 0.0 5.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.8 2.2 1.1 0.1 4.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.8 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.9 5.2 8.3 11.3 13.3 14.5 13.6 11.2 8.2 5.1 2.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 94.6% 1.0    0.8 0.2 0.0
15-3 75.2% 2.1    1.3 0.7 0.1
14-4 41.6% 2.1    0.7 0.9 0.4 0.0
13-5 13.2% 1.1    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.8% 6.8 3.3 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 36.4% 36.4% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.3% 23.2% 23.2% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-2 1.1% 26.9% 26.9% 13.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8
15-3 2.8% 18.7% 18.7% 13.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.3
14-4 5.1% 14.6% 14.6% 13.6 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 4.3
13-5 8.2% 13.2% 13.2% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 7.1
12-6 11.2% 10.0% 10.0% 14.4 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 10.1
11-7 13.6% 6.7% 6.7% 14.6 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 12.7
10-8 14.5% 3.2% 3.2% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 14.0
9-9 13.3% 2.0% 2.0% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 13.0
8-10 11.3% 1.2% 1.2% 15.7 0.0 0.1 11.1
7-11 8.3% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 8.2
6-12 5.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 5.2
5-13 2.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.9
4-14 1.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.5
3-15 0.6% 0.6
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.1 1.8 0.5 94.3 0.0%