Marshall
Sun Belt
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -0.4 164
Expected Predictive Rating +0.9 143
Pace 71.4 107
Improvement -2.5 281

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C #145 C+ B- C- D D
Defense C- #214 C+ C C D+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% 347 66% 39 -2.4 265
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 87 36% 246 +1.2 111
Three Pointers 45% 110 35% 120 +2.8 86
1st FG Attempt 1.05 127 +1.5 126
Second Chance 32.3% 136 1.09 84 0.35 93
Turnovers 18.0% 257
Freethrows 0.26 325 73% 165 0.19 312
Total Offense +0.8 145

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 305 59% 208 +2.2 103
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 81 36% 105 -0.7 248
Three Pointers 42% 135 34% 183 -0.6 213
1st FG Attempt 1.00 147 +0.8 149
Second Chance 33.2% 290 0.92 48 0.31 165
Turnovers 17.1% 176
Freethrows 0.35 306 71% 94 0.25 286
Total Defense -1.2 214

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -1.1 317 -0.7 66
Shot Type Accuracy +2.7 90 -0.1 178
Possession Length 15.7 39 18.0 291
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 73 0.18 214
Improvement +0.4 #155 -2.9 #314

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17% 20% 12%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.8 14.1
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 99%
Conference Champion 24% 34% 10%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round17% 20% 12%
Second Round1% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Georgia Southern (Away) - 60.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 36 - 47 - 7
Quad 413 - 520 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 183 @Massachusetts W 78 - 72 42% +5  87% 1 - 0 B- +8 F+ -8 B C F A+ +15 C A+ A
 Sat, Nov 8 165 @Toledo W 85 - 73 39% -1  34% 2 - 0 A- +15 B+ +7 A+ D- D- B+ +7 B B A-
 Wed, Nov 12 215 Elon W 96 - 89 70% +6  95% 3 - 0 C +1 B +6 B+ A+ D- D -5 C C D-
 Sat, Nov 15 23 @Virginia L 78 - 104 4% -20  0% 3 - 1 D+ -7 B +6 C A+ D- F+ -11 D+ D D-
 Thu, Nov 20 313 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 98 - 70 86% +5  50% 4 - 1 A- +16 B+ +8 A+ F C+ B +6 A C+ B
 Sun, Nov 23 304 Mercyhurst W 69 - 60 85% +5  87% 5 - 1 C- -2 D+ -3 B+ F+ C+ C+ +1 B+ C+ C-
 Wed, Nov 26 187 Lipscomb L 67 - 90 66% -17  0% 5 - 2 F -28 F -18 F B- F D- -8 F A B+
 Wed, Dec 3 113 @UNC Wilmington L 69 - 70 26% -1  31% 5 - 3 B- +5 B- +4 C- A+ F+ C+ +1 A+ B- F
 Sat, Dec 6 199 @Ohio L 81 - 88 47% -6  0% 5 - 4 D+ -7 C+ +2 D+ B+ C D- -9 D B- F+
 Wed, Dec 10 160 Western Kentucky W 77 - 61 61% +7  71% 6 - 4 B+ +13 B- +4 C- B+ A+ A- +10 B- A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 13 150 Wright St. W 76 - 74 58% -1  28% 7 - 4 C -0 B +6 C+ A C D -6 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 135 @Troy L 63 - 70 31% -6  10% 7 - 5 0 - 1 C- -2 F -11 F D+ D- A- +8 A B B
 Wed, Dec 31 276 Georgia St. W 84 - 80 80% +2  61% 8 - 5 1 - 1 D+ -5 C +0 C+ A F+ D -6 D F+ C+
 Sat, Jan 3 161 Appalachian St. W 88 - 81 61% +8  92% 9 - 5 2 - 1 C+ +4 A +13 A+ F+ B+ F+ -9 D F+ C
 Wed, Jan 7 222 @James Madison W 66 - 64 49% +8  96% 10 - 5 3 - 1 C+ +2 D+ -2 F B+ B+ B +5 A- C- C+
 Sat, Jan 10 276 @Georgia St. L 73 - 81 62% +3  56% 10 - 6 3 - 2 D- -11 D- -6 D B- F D+ -5 B+ F B
 Wed, Jan 14 238 Coastal Carolina L 83 - 85 75% -5  17% 10 - 7 3 - 3 D -9 B +7 A- D A- F -16 F B- B-
 Sat, Jan 17 222 James Madison W 77 - 72 71% -0  59% 11 - 7 4 - 3 C -1 C- -1 D B+ F C +0 B- F+ B+
 Thu, Jan 22 356 Louisiana Monroe W 115 - 60 94% +28  97% 12 - 7 5 - 3 A+ +37 A+ +24 A+ A+ D+ A +10 A+ C D+
 Wed, Jan 28 234 @Texas St. L 68 - 72 53% -4  21% 12 - 8 5 - 4 D+ -5 D -5 D+ F+ A+ C -0 C F C
 Sat, Jan 31 141 @Arkansas St. W 70 - 61 33% +4  76% 13 - 8 6 - 4 B+ +13 B- +4 C B F+ A +10 A+ A- C-
 Wed, Feb 4 241 Southern Miss W 81 - 77 75% -2  29% 14 - 8 7 - 4 C- -4 B+ +8 A B C F -11 D- D- B
 Sat, Feb 7 87 Miami (OH) L 74 - 90 36% -13  0% 14 - 9 D- -13 D+ -3 D C+ B F+ -10 C- F B
 Wed, Feb 11 253 @Old Dominion W 81 - 79 57% -7  10% 15 - 9 8 - 4 C -0 B- +4 A+ F C+ D+ -4 D- D D-
 Sat, Feb 14 274 @Georgia Southern W 83 - 80 61%
 Mon, Feb 16 191 South Alabama W 74 - 69 66%
 Thu, Feb 19 161 @Appalachian St. L 68 - 71 38%
 Sat, Feb 21 238 @Coastal Carolina W 74 - 73 53%
 Tue, Feb 24 253 Old Dominion W 81 - 73 76%
 Fri, Feb 27 274 Georgia Southern W 86 - 77 80%
Totals 19 - 11 12 - 6 +0 C +1 C+ B- C- C- -1 C+ C C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C B+ C- C+ B- 30% 25% 45% D C+ C+ B- B- C- D- C D C- C- B- C C 34% 24% 42% B C+ D+ B C C D B- D+
1.10 66% 36% 35% +3 -1 1.05 32% 1.1 .35 18% .26 73% .19 1.10 59% 36% 34% 0 -1 1.00 33% 0.9 .31 17% .35 71% .18
Nov
3		 Massachusetts F+ A+ F C B+ 33% 14% 53% C B A- F C F D+ B- C- A+ C D- B+ C+ 43% 22% 35% C- C A A+ A+ A F A F
0.96 82% 29% 33% +6 +1 1.16 36% 0.8 .29 32% .34 74% .25 0.88 57% 45% 29% -1 0 1.00 25% 0.4 .10 25% .58 58% .34
Nov
8		 Toledo B+ A+ F A+ A+ 25% 10% 65% C- A+ C+ F D- D- D+ D- D B+ A+ F C B 41% 29% 30% C+ B F A+ B A- D D+ D-
1.20 85% 20% 44% +15 0 1.33 36% 0.7 .24 21% .21 67% .14 1.03 35% 69% 35% 0 -1 1.00 37% 0.6 .22 20% .33 79% .26
Nov
12		 Elon B B C A A- 31% 15% 54% C B+ D A+ A+ D- B+ D B- D F A+ B C 37% 7% 56% C+ C C C C D- C- C- D+
1.26 63% 38% 43% +9 0 1.19 28% 2.1 .59 18% .35 68% .24 1.16 71% 25% 31% +2 +2 1.09 33% 1.0 .33 13% .33 73% .24
Nov
15		 Virginia B D A+ F C 28% 30% 42% D+ C B- A+ A+ D- A+ A A+ F+ B- C F D+ 42% 13% 45% C- D+ A- F D D- F C F
1.03 47% 50% 23% -7 -2 0.85 31% 1.8 .56 20% .40 79% .31 1.37 57% 43% 44% +7 +1 1.18 35% 1.5 .51 12% .54 72% .39
Nov
20		 Arkansas Pine Bluff B+ A+ D+ A+ A+ 32% 26% 42% F A+ D- F F C+ D- A D+ B F+ C+ A+ B 17% 50% 33% A+ A C B C+ B F C- F
1.28 78% 33% 54% +18 -1 1.35 28% 0.6 .16 14% .32 81% .26 0.91 67% 35% 24% -5 -5 0.81 26% 0.9 .23 21% .43 77% .33
Nov
23		 Mercyhurst D+ D+ F A+ A 25% 18% 57% F+ B+ D F F+ C+ D- A C- C+ C B A+ A- 40% 34% 26% D+ B+ D- A C+ C- F A+ D+
1.09 55% 13% 48% +7 -1 1.14 30% 0.8 .24 17% .31 81% .25 0.95 55% 35% 15% -9 -2 0.80 32% 0.8 .27 16% .30 56% .17
Nov
26		 Lipscomb F D F F F 35% 22% 43% C F C- A B- F A- B+ A D- F+ C F F 37% 17% 46% B+ F A- A A B+ F A+ F
0.86 53% 25% 17% -15 0 0.70 29% 1.3 .37 22% .36 77% .28 1.16 68% 33% 50% +14 0 1.31 18% 0.8 .15 19% .41 65% .27
Dec
3		 UNC Wilmington B- A+ C F C+ 17% 42% 42% F C- B A+ A+ F+ F+ A+ C- C+ F+ A+ B+ A+ 21% 38% 40% A+ A+ F A+ B- F F D F
1.11 88% 40% 25% 0 -4 0.94 31% 1.5 .47 18% .18 100% .18 1.12 67% 13% 29% -11 -3 0.74 43% 0.8 .33 10% .69 74% .51
Dec
6		 Ohio C+ A- D- F D 48% 11% 41% A- D+ B- B+ B+ C C+ C+ C+ D- A+ F F D- 33% 24% 43% C+ D B C- B- F+ F C+ F
1.12 67% 33% 22% -4 +2 0.98 37% 1.2 .43 17% .33 75% .25 1.21 44% 54% 43% +5 -1 1.11 25% 1.0 .25 12% .46 69% .31
Dec
10		 Western Kentucky B- D+ B C C 26% 40% 34% F C- B+ B+ B+ A+ F D+ F A- C+ A- B C+ 35% 27% 38% A- B- C- A+ A+ B- F+ B- D-
1.12 53% 43% 35% +2 -3 0.98 34% 1.0 .34 12% .25 67% .17 0.89 50% 29% 30% -8 -1 0.85 34% 0.4 .14 16% .36 71% .26
Dec
13		 Wright St. B A+ B+ D B 25% 27% 48% F C+ A- B+ A C C A+ B D D A F F+ 24% 29% 47% A+ D+ F A+ A+ F A+ A- A+
1.20 75% 46% 30% +4 -2 1.06 39% 1.2 .45 17% .31 81% .25 1.17 64% 29% 43% +5 -2 1.08 41% 0.5 .20 8% .10 67% .07
Dec
20		 Troy F A F F F 25% 26% 49% D- F B+ F D+ D- D F+ D A- A+ A+ B- A+ 47% 4% 49% F+ A C+ B+ B B F F F
0.90 69% 29% 19% -11 -2 0.77 37% 0.8 .28 20% .25 64% .16 1.00 42% 0% 32% -11 +3 0.86 32% 0.8 .27 19% .41 83% .33
Dec
31		 Georgia St. C A+ F D C+ 33% 16% 51% C- C+ D- A+ A F+ A- F B- D F D B F+ 23% 38% 40% A D D- D F+ C+ F+ F F
1.12 76% 25% 31% +2 0 1.06 27% 1.8 .48 20% .37 64% .23 1.07 67% 40% 29% 0 -3 0.94 32% 1.2 .38 17% .37 87% .32
Jan
3		 Appalachian St. A B- A A+ A+ 34% 26% 40% D A+ F D F+ B+ A+ C+ A+ F+ F+ F B- F+ 33% 27% 41% A D D F+ F+ C F A F
1.25 59% 46% 55% +15 -1 1.30 21% 0.8 .18 11% .40 72% .29 1.15 69% 46% 30% +3 -1 1.06 33% 1.2 .38 16% .52 55% .29
Jan
7		 James Madison D+ F A+ F F 29% 27% 43% F+ F B- A B+ B+ F+ B- D- B C A+ A A 35% 19% 46% B- A- F B+ C- C+ B A B+
1.07 33% 50% 27% -8 -2 0.82 33% 1.2 .41 10% .29 75% .21 1.03 59% 22% 27% -7 0 0.88 36% 0.9 .33 18% .26 62% .16
Jan
10		 Georgia St. D- C D- D D 34% 20% 46% D+ D B C B- F A F C+ D+ A- C- A+ A- 31% 26% 43% C- B+ F F F B F F+ F
0.99 59% 30% 30% -4 0 0.94 38% 1.0 .38 23% .39 59% .23 1.10 46% 36% 22% -12 -1 0.76 41% 1.4 .56 19% .66 85% .55
Jan
14		 Coastal Carolina B B- C+ A+ A+ 20% 52% 28% F A- B- F D A- D F F+ F F F F F 33% 24% 43% D+ F A+ F B- B- D F F
1.20 58% 42% 53% +10 -5 1.12 31% 0.8 .23 9% .25 63% .16 1.23 75% 58% 43% +16 -1 1.33 17% 1.3 .21 17% .30 88% .26
Jan
17		 James Madison C- C F C+ D+ 35% 28% 37% F+ D A+ D- B+ F A+ A+ A+ C A+ C- D C+ 26% 23% 51% A B- F D+ F+ B+ F+ B+ D
1.13 56% 23% 35% -4 -1 0.91 46% 0.9 .41 19% .51 82% .42 1.05 42% 36% 38% -2 -1 0.96 36% 1.1 .40 20% .37 65% .24
Jan
22		 Louisiana Monroe A+ C F A+ A+ 26% 7% 67% C A+ A+ A- A+ D+ F A F+ A A+ F A+ A+ 35% 19% 46% C- A+ C C- C D+ F C F
1.55 63% 25% 51% +18 +1 1.39 54% 1.3 .71 18% .15 78% .11 0.81 28% 50% 17% -20 0 0.62 24% 1.0 .24 16% .47 72% .34
Jan
28		 Texas St. D A- C F D+ 40% 25% 35% D D+ F C+ F+ A+ F F F C B A+ F C 48% 24% 28% D- C C+ F F C D- A D+
0.99 70% 36% 25% -1 0 1.00 17% 1.0 .17 10% .19 58% .11 1.05 50% 25% 43% -3 0 0.96 31% 1.3 .39 19% .34 68% .23
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Arkansas St. B- C+ D A+ B- 27% 38% 35% F C A D+ B F+ D A C A D- A+ A+ A+ 32% 11% 57% C A+ D- A+ A- C- F A+ F
1.10 62% 33% 41% +3 -3 1.02 35% 1.0 .35 19% .29 80% .23 0.96 67% 20% 19% -12 +1 0.79 42% 0.7 .28 19% .49 64% .31
Feb
4		 Southern Miss B+ A+ A B A+ 32% 30% 38% F+ A C+ A B C B+ C- B F F A+ F F 12% 35% 53% A+ D- F A D- B F B+ F
1.22 80% 50% 39% +13 -2 1.26 29% 1.2 .35 17% .40 68% .27 1.16 100% 13% 43% +4 -4 1.02 46% 0.8 .38 21% .57 70% .40
Feb
7		 Miami (OH) D+ A+ F F D 32% 20% 48% C D A D- C+ B C F D- F+ F A+ F C- 40% 23% 36% B- C- F F F B D C+ D+
1.05 78% 27% 26% -2 0 0.98 39% 0.7 .28 16% .29 59% .17 1.28 79% 18% 41% +8 0 1.17 41% 1.6 .66 18% .37 76% .28
Feb
11		 Old Dominion B- A- C A+ A+ 38% 25% 36% D A+ F F F C+ F+ F F D+ F+ F C F 32% 36% 32% A- D- B F D D- A- A+ A
1.15 71% 36% 50% +13 -1 1.27 14% 0.5 .07 14% .28 65% .18 1.12 67% 45% 33% +5 -2 1.07 21% 1.6 .32 13% .21 62% .13



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 4.3 14.1 6.0 24.4 1st
2nd 1.4 14.8 7.0 23.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 9.3 11.6 0.5 21.6 3rd
4th 2.5 12.0 0.6 15.0 4th
5th 0.1 5.4 2.8 8.4 5th
6th 0.7 3.4 0.2 4.3 6th
7th 1.3 0.7 1.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 0.0 0.9 8th
9th 0.2 0.1 0.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.3 2.9 12.2 25.7 31.3 21.7 6.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 6.0    4.4 1.6
13-5 65.2% 14.1    3.6 7.4 3.0 0.2
12-6 13.8% 4.3    0.1 0.8 1.6 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 24.4% 24.4 8.0 9.7 4.6 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 6.0% 31.3% 31.3% 13.1 0.3 1.1 0.5 0.0 4.1
13-5 21.7% 25.8% 25.8% 13.8 0.1 1.7 3.3 0.6 16.1
12-6 31.3% 20.8% 20.8% 14.1 0.0 1.0 4.0 1.4 0.0 24.8
11-7 25.7% 9.5% 9.5% 14.2 0.3 1.4 0.7 0.0 23.2
10-8 12.2% 4.3% 4.3% 14.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 11.7
9-9 2.9% 2.0% 2.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9
8-10 0.3% 3.2% 3.2% 15.0 0.0 0.3
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 17.0% 17.0% 0.0% 13.9 83.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.9% 100.0% 13.1 15.0 59.4 25.1 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.6%