Marshall
Sun Belt
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.3 #163
Expected Predictive Rating +0.5 #156
Pace 72.4 #87
Improvement -2.6 #298

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #142 C+ B D D+ D-
Defense #206 C+ B- C D- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% #353 1.31 #35 -3.0 #285
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #94 0.71 #254 +1.1 #113
Three Pointers 46% #89 1.07 #108 +3.6 #70
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #130 +1.7 #129
Freethrows 15.0 #293 76% #89 11.4 #262
Second Chance 32.7% #122 1.16 #52 0.38 #65
Turnovers 18.4% #300
Total Offense +0.7 #142

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #296 1.15 #167 +2.5 #95
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #71 0.76 #189 -1.5 #301
Three Pointers 41% #168 1.00 #154 +0.2 #169
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #139 +1.2 #141
Freethrows 20.4 #321 72% #155 14.7 #313
Second Chance 32.9% #278 0.87 #20 0.29 #99
Turnovers 16.1% #202
Total Defense -1.0 #206

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.4% #320 -1.5% #64
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.7% #90 -0.9% #164
Possession Length 15.7 #45 17.8 #262
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #89 0.18 #197
Improvement +0.1 #171 -2.7 #320

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.4% 13.5% 7.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.8 14.1
.500 or above 96.5% 98.5% 92.3%
.500 or above in Conference 91.7% 96.1% 83.1%
Conference Champion 4.2% 5.8% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round11.4% 13.5% 7.2%
Second Round0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Alabama (Home) - 66.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 36 - 46 - 8
Quad 413 - 419 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 176 @Massachusetts W 78 - 72 42% +5  1 - 0 +8 -4 A+ C F +11 C A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 166 @Toledo W 85 - 73 39% -1  2 - 0 +14 +9 A+ F F +5 B+ A A+
 Wed, Nov 12 184 Elon W 96 - 89 66% +6  3 - 0 +2 +9 A- A+ F -7 C+ C F
 Sat, Nov 15 16 @Virginia L 78 - 104 4% -20  3 - 1 -5 +9 C A+ F -12 C- D D-
 Thu, Nov 20 334 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 98 - 70 89% +5  4 - 1 +14 +10 A+ F C +2 A+ C B
 Sun, Nov 23 306 Mercyhurst W 69 - 60 85% +5  5 - 1 -2 +1 A F C -2 A- C+ C
 Wed, Nov 26 174 Lipscomb L 67 - 90 65% -17  5 - 2 -27 -13 F B- F -11 F A+ A-
 Wed, Dec 3 125 @UNC Wilmington L 69 - 70 29% -1  5 - 3 +4 +8 C- A+ F -3 A+ B- F
 Sat, Dec 6 196 @Ohio L 81 - 88 46% -6  5 - 4 -6 +5 D+ B+ C- -11 D+ C+ F
 Wed, Dec 10 162 Western Kentucky W 77 - 61 61% +7  6 - 4 +13 +5 D A A+ +8 B A+ B
 Sat, Dec 13 154 Wright St. W 76 - 74 59% -1  7 - 4 -1 +9 B- A+ C -9 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 112 @Troy L 63 - 70 26% -6  7 - 5 0 - 1 -1 -7 F D F +6 A+ A B
 Wed, Dec 31 273 Georgia St. W 84 - 80 80% +2  8 - 5 1 - 1 -5 +5 B+ A+ F -10 F F C
 Sat, Jan 3 206 Appalachian St. W 88 - 81 70% +8  9 - 5 2 - 1 +1 +13 A+ F B+ -12 D D C
 Wed, Jan 7 231 @James Madison W 66 - 64 53% +8  10 - 5 3 - 1 +1 -1 F A- B+ +2 A D+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 273 @Georgia St. L 73 - 81 61% +3  10 - 6 3 - 2 -11 -1 C- B- F -9 B- F C+
 Wed, Jan 14 252 Coastal Carolina L 83 - 85 77% -5  10 - 7 3 - 3 -10 +9 A+ D A -19 F B- A-
 Sat, Jan 17 231 James Madison W 77 - 72 74% -0  11 - 7 4 - 3 -2 +0 F A- F -2 B- F A
 Thu, Jan 22 361 Louisiana Monroe W 115 - 60 95% +28  12 - 7 5 - 3 +36 +26 A+ A+ F +7 A+ C C-
 Sat, Jan 24 191 South Alabama W 75 - 70 66%
 Wed, Jan 28 263 @Texas St. W 75 - 73 59%
 Sat, Jan 31 145 @Arkansas St. L 81 - 85 34%
 Wed, Feb 4 244 Southern Miss W 79 - 72 75%
 Sat, Feb 7 89 Miami (OH) L 80 - 84 36%
 Wed, Feb 11 240 @Old Dominion W 78 - 77 54%
 Sat, Feb 14 251 @Georgia Southern W 83 - 81 55%
 Thu, Feb 19 206 @Appalachian St. L 70 - 71 48%
 Sat, Feb 21 252 @Coastal Carolina W 76 - 74 56%
 Tue, Feb 24 240 Old Dominion W 81 - 74 74%
 Fri, Feb 27 251 Georgia Southern W 86 - 78 76%
Totals 18 - 12 11 - 7 +0 +1 C+ B D -1 C+ B- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.8 0.7 4.2 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 6.4 8.5 3.4 0.3 19.7 2nd
3rd 0.8 8.7 11.2 3.3 0.1 24.2 3rd
4th 0.1 4.5 9.9 2.0 0.0 16.5 4th
5th 0.8 8.0 2.6 0.0 11.5 5th
6th 0.0 3.0 4.1 0.2 7.3 6th
7th 0.3 4.1 1.0 0.0 5.4 7th
8th 0.0 1.5 2.7 0.1 4.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.4 0.6 0.0 3.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 1.3 0.0 2.1 10th
11th 0.1 0.9 0.2 1.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 0.4 2.0 5.8 11.3 18.5 22.5 19.9 13.2 5.4 1.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 66.8% 0.7    0.4 0.3
14-4 34.2% 1.8    0.6 1.0 0.2
13-5 10.5% 1.4    0.2 0.7 0.4 0.1
12-6 1.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.2% 4.2 1.2 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 1.0% 34.6% 34.6% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.7
14-4 5.4% 29.0% 29.0% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.1 3.8
13-5 13.2% 23.3% 23.3% 13.7 0.1 1.2 1.5 0.3 10.1
12-6 19.9% 16.0% 16.0% 13.9 0.1 0.8 1.8 0.5 0.0 16.7
11-7 22.5% 8.8% 8.8% 14.1 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.6 0.0 20.5
10-8 18.5% 4.1% 4.1% 14.4 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 17.7
9-9 11.3% 3.2% 3.2% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 10.9
8-10 5.8% 1.5% 1.5% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.7
7-11 2.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.0
6-12 0.4% 0.4
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.4% 11.4% 0.0% 13.8 88.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.2 3.8 76.9 19.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%