Elon
Colonial Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.7#175
Expected Predictive Rating+0.7#159
Pace63.5#307
Improvement-2.4#291

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#176
First Shot-3.3#276
After Offensive Rebound+3.7#16
Layup/Dunks-3.0#288
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#286
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#161
Freethrows+0.9#121
Improvement-1.5#274

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#209
First Shot+2.2#108
After Offensive Rebounds-3.2#352
Layups/Dunks+3.1#71
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#210
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#299
Freethrows+2.1#55
Improvement-0.9#234
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.2% 10.9% 6.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.0 14.2
.500 or above 98.5% 99.9% 97.6%
.500 or above in Conference 90.4% 97.8% 85.7%
Conference Champion 1.7% 3.5% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round8.2% 10.9% 6.4%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Campbell (Away) - 39.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 35 - 66 - 9
Quad 413 - 418 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 36   @ North Carolina L 76-90 8%     0 - 1 +1.2 +5.6 -3.5
  Nov 15, 2024 236   @ Gardner-Webb L 79-80 55%     0 - 2 -2.9 +9.6 -12.6
  Nov 20, 2024 338   @ Northern Illinois W 75-48 79%     1 - 2 +17.9 +2.2 +16.7
  Nov 22, 2024 83   @ Notre Dame W 84-77 16%     2 - 2 +16.8 +21.6 -4.1
  Nov 29, 2024 199   Maine L 56-69 54%     2 - 3 -14.7 -9.7 -6.2
  Nov 30, 2024 263   Navy W 69-63 69%     3 - 3 +0.3 -4.5 +4.9
  Dec 01, 2024 273   @ Penn W 68-53 62%     4 - 3 +11.2 +2.6 +11.1
  Dec 07, 2024 151   Wofford W 79-56 54%     5 - 3 +21.3 +7.9 +14.9
  Dec 18, 2024 153   @ East Tennessee St. L 58-84 35%     5 - 4 -22.8 -9.5 -15.2
  Dec 21, 2024 159   UNC Greensboro W 73-69 55%     6 - 4 +1.9 +7.2 -4.8
  Dec 28, 2024 182   Marshall W 73-59 61%     7 - 4 +10.4 -0.2 +10.8
  Jan 02, 2025 333   @ N.C. A&T W 75-67 77%     8 - 4 1 - 0 -0.4 +6.1 -5.6
  Jan 04, 2025 287   Hampton W 70-62 79%     9 - 4 2 - 0 -1.4 -2.2 +1.4
  Jan 09, 2025 208   @ William & Mary L 65-78 47%     9 - 5 2 - 1 -12.9 -1.8 -12.9
  Jan 13, 2025 178   Campbell W 81-68 60%     10 - 5 3 - 1 +9.7 +15.5 -4.7
  Jan 16, 2025 195   @ Drexel W 65-54 44%     11 - 5 4 - 1 +11.9 +8.1 +6.2
  Jan 18, 2025 232   @ Delaware L 77-79 54%     11 - 6 4 - 2 -3.6 -1.8 -1.8
  Jan 23, 2025 253   Monmouth W 83-71 75%     12 - 6 5 - 2 +4.2 +3.2 +0.6
  Jan 25, 2025 131   College of Charleston L 62-76 50%     12 - 7 5 - 3 -14.8 -4.9 -11.5
  Jan 30, 2025 174   Hofstra L 63-74 59%     12 - 8 5 - 4 -14.0 -3.2 -11.5
  Feb 01, 2025 206   Northeastern W 71-60 65%     13 - 8 6 - 4 +6.3 +5.0 +2.6
  Feb 06, 2025 178   @ Campbell L 66-68 39%    
  Feb 08, 2025 131   @ College of Charleston L 72-77 30%    
  Feb 13, 2025 333   N.C. A&T W 81-68 89%    
  Feb 15, 2025 117   @ UNC Wilmington L 67-73 27%    
  Feb 20, 2025 160   Towson W 65-64 57%    
  Feb 22, 2025 208   William & Mary W 79-75 67%    
  Feb 27, 2025 253   @ Monmouth W 71-69 56%    
  Mar 01, 2025 318   @ Stony Brook W 72-66 70%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.0 0.5 1.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.9 2.7 0.2 4.9 2nd
3rd 1.9 6.8 1.6 10.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 9.0 5.2 0.1 15.3 4th
5th 0.2 6.4 10.5 1.0 18.1 5th
6th 0.1 3.4 12.7 3.4 0.1 19.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 7.8 5.7 0.1 14.5 7th
8th 0.1 2.8 5.3 0.5 8.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.7 1.3 0.0 4.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 1.1 0.1 2.0 10th
11th 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.2 1.7 7.7 18.1 26.1 25.0 15.1 5.3 0.8 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 70.7% 0.5    0.2 0.3 0.1
13-5 17.8% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.8% 24.0% 24.0% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6
13-5 5.3% 18.2% 18.2% 13.5 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 4.4
12-6 15.1% 14.1% 14.1% 13.9 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.5 13.0
11-7 25.0% 9.1% 9.1% 14.2 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.8 0.0 22.8
10-8 26.1% 5.7% 5.7% 14.3 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.0 24.6
9-9 18.1% 4.7% 4.7% 14.5 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 17.2
8-10 7.7% 3.0% 3.0% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 7.4
7-11 1.7% 1.2% 1.2% 15.0 0.0 1.7
6-12 0.2% 4.5% 4.5% 15.0 0.0 0.2
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.8 2.5 0.1 91.9 0.0%