Elon
Colonial Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.9#179
Expected Predictive Rating+1.4#148
Pace65.7#264
Improvement-2.3#315

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#179
First Shot-1.7#221
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#109
Layup/Dunks-2.4#275
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#238
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#141
Freethrows+0.7#132
Improvement-2.9#348

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#189
First Shot+3.0#88
After Offensive Rebounds-3.7#359
Layups/Dunks+3.7#61
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#166
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#291
Freethrows+1.8#66
Improvement+0.6#143
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.9% 10.3% 7.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.1
.500 or above 79.2% 86.9% 68.4%
.500 or above in Conference 77.4% 81.2% 72.0%
Conference Champion 11.9% 14.0% 9.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 1.1% 2.3%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round8.9% 10.3% 6.9%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Greensboro (Home) - 58.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 34 - 65 - 8
Quad 413 - 518 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 22   @ North Carolina L 76-90 6%     0 - 1 +3.1 +5.9 -1.9
  Nov 15, 2024 238   @ Gardner-Webb L 79-80 51%     0 - 2 -2.3 +9.6 -11.9
  Nov 20, 2024 346   @ Northern Illinois W 75-48 78%     1 - 2 +18.0 +2.2 +16.9
  Nov 22, 2024 83   @ Notre Dame W 84-77 16%     2 - 2 +16.8 +23.3 -5.9
  Nov 29, 2024 212   Maine L 56-69 56%     2 - 3 -15.5 -10.7 -6.0
  Nov 30, 2024 302   Navy W 69-63 74%     3 - 3 -1.7 -6.9 +5.4
  Dec 01, 2024 274   @ Penn W 68-53 59%     4 - 3 +11.8 +3.4 +10.9
  Dec 07, 2024 155   Wofford W 79-56 58%     5 - 3 +20.0 +7.6 +13.9
  Dec 18, 2024 132   @ East Tennessee St. L 58-84 29%     5 - 4 -21.3 -8.2 -14.9
  Dec 21, 2024 157   UNC Greensboro W 68-66 58%    
  Dec 28, 2024 190   Marshall W 74-71 62%    
  Jan 02, 2025 321   @ N.C. A&T W 79-74 68%    
  Jan 04, 2025 266   Hampton W 72-64 76%    
  Jan 09, 2025 222   @ William & Mary L 78-79 47%    
  Jan 11, 2025 295   Campbell W 73-64 80%    
  Jan 16, 2025 146   @ Drexel L 65-69 35%    
  Jan 18, 2025 219   @ Delaware L 75-76 45%    
  Jan 23, 2025 272   Monmouth W 75-67 77%    
  Jan 25, 2025 121   College of Charleston L 73-74 49%    
  Jan 30, 2025 151   Hofstra W 66-64 56%    
  Feb 01, 2025 160   Northeastern W 71-69 58%    
  Feb 06, 2025 295   @ Campbell W 70-67 61%    
  Feb 08, 2025 121   @ College of Charleston L 71-77 28%    
  Feb 13, 2025 321   N.C. A&T W 82-71 84%    
  Feb 15, 2025 134   @ UNC Wilmington L 69-74 31%    
  Feb 20, 2025 213   Towson W 66-61 66%    
  Feb 22, 2025 222   William & Mary W 81-76 67%    
  Feb 27, 2025 272   @ Monmouth W 72-70 57%    
  Mar 01, 2025 307   @ Stony Brook W 73-69 64%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.7 3.4 1.7 0.5 0.1 11.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.0 4.8 2.9 0.7 0.1 11.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.8 5.4 2.9 0.5 0.0 11.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 1.9 5.6 3.5 0.6 0.0 11.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.9 4.4 0.7 0.0 10.9 5th
6th 0.3 3.2 4.8 1.2 0.0 9.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 4.7 1.9 0.1 8.3 7th
8th 0.6 3.4 2.6 0.2 0.0 6.9 8th
9th 0.2 2.0 2.9 0.5 0.0 5.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.2 0.8 0.0 4.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.0 0.1 3.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.2 2.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.9 6.2 9.1 11.9 13.9 14.6 13.0 10.4 7.0 4.1 1.7 0.5 0.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 96.7% 1.7    1.5 0.2 0.0
15-3 83.1% 3.4    2.3 1.0 0.1
14-4 52.4% 3.7    1.6 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 19.9% 2.1    0.5 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.2% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.9% 11.9 6.5 3.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 40.7% 40.7% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.5% 36.3% 36.3% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
16-2 1.7% 30.3% 30.3% 12.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 1.2
15-3 4.1% 22.7% 22.7% 13.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.2
14-4 7.0% 18.7% 18.7% 13.4 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 5.7
13-5 10.4% 15.1% 15.1% 13.7 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.2 8.9
12-6 13.0% 12.8% 12.8% 14.1 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.0 11.4
11-7 14.6% 8.7% 8.7% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.0 13.3
10-8 13.9% 5.3% 5.3% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 13.2
9-9 11.9% 2.9% 2.9% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 11.6
8-10 9.1% 2.1% 2.1% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.9
7-11 6.2% 1.0% 1.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 6.2
6-12 3.9% 0.9% 0.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 3.9
5-13 2.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.0
4-14 1.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.0
3-15 0.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.7 3.2 2.0 0.3 91.1 0.0%