Elon
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.7 #184
Expected Predictive Rating -0.6 #172
Pace 67.9 #216
Improvement -1.1 #246

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #98 B+ C C C A+
Defense #311 D+ D- D+ C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #24 1.21 #121 +5.4 #24
2 Pt. Jumpers 8% #358 0.59 #347 -5.3 #361
Three Pointers 46% #79 1.14 #36 +5.3 #35
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #45 +5.3 #45
Freethrows 18.5 #125 69% #297 12.7 #175
Second Chance 33.3% #106 1.01 #228 0.34 #137
Turnovers 16.2% #155
Total Offense +3.1 #98

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #303 1.08 #78 +4.0 #59
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #267 0.79 #245 +1.0 #116
Three Pointers 48% #27 1.18 #352 -7.5 #359
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #272 -2.6 #264
Freethrows 16.5 #140 72% #133 11.8 #132
Second Chance 33.6% #297 1.14 #290 0.38 #321
Turnovers 14.9% #272
Total Defense -4.8 #311

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 4.2% #6 0.1% #167
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.0% #87 5.7% #283
Possession Length 17.4 #178 17.8 #253
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #196 0.18 #202
Improvement -2.6 #320 +1.4 #95

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.4% 6.9% 4.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.1 14.4
.500 or above 67.9% 83.9% 59.8%
.500 or above in Conference 65.0% 82.2% 56.2%
Conference Champion 4.1% 8.9% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.2% 1.1%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round5.4% 6.9% 4.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: College of Charleston (Away) - 33.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 36 - 77 - 11
Quad 49 - 416 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 294 @UNC Greensboro W 92 - 90 OT 61% +1  1 - 0 -3 +9 C+ F A+ -12 F A- C-
 Wed, Nov 12 163 @Marshall L 89 - 96 34% -6  1 - 1 -4 +9 B+ B- A- -13 F F C
 Sat, Nov 15 363 Gardner-Webb W 95 - 84 96% +16  2 - 1 -11 +4 A+ B- F -16 F D- D-
 Thu, Nov 20 40 @Miami (FL) L 72 - 99 7% -10  2 - 2 -12 +4 A+ D F -15 D- F D+
 Mon, Nov 24 206 @Appalachian St. W 88 - 53 43% +17  3 - 2 +35 +29 C A+ A+ +11 A A+ D+
 Sat, Nov 29 149 Mercer L 84 - 91 52% -1  3 - 3 -9 +0 D- D+ F -9 C- A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 165 Furman L 88 - 97 57% +1  3 - 4 -13 +12 B C A+ -24 F C F
 Sat, Dec 6 215 @Wofford W 73 - 52 45% +21  4 - 4 +21 +9 A F D- +15 A+ A- C-
 Sat, Dec 13 318 Northern Illinois W 85 - 79 85% -4  5 - 4 -7 +7 B- F A+ -14 D+ D- F
 Wed, Dec 17 120 Richmond W 73 - 70 44% -2  6 - 4 +3 +4 A+ F F -1 D- F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 58 @Virginia Tech L 81 - 82 OT 9% +6  6 - 5 +12 +15 A+ A+ F -3 A- F A+
 Mon, Dec 29 259 Northeastern W 103 - 91 74% +5  7 - 5 1 - 0 +4 +21 A+ A+ D -18 F C- C+
 Wed, Dec 31 164 College of Charleston L 81 - 85 56% -7  7 - 6 1 - 1 -7 +2 C C- A+ -9 B- F C+
 Thu, Jan 8 304 @N.C. A&T W 69 - 64 63% +6  8 - 6 2 - 1 -0 -5 F C D+ +5 A+ F C
 Sat, Jan 10 190 Campbell W 83 - 82 62% -6  9 - 6 3 - 1 -4 +9 B+ A+ B+ -13 F A F
 Thu, Jan 15 259 @Northeastern L 78 - 85 52% -4  9 - 7 3 - 2 -9 -4 B- F F -5 C+ F D-
 Sat, Jan 17 126 @Hofstra W 89 - 85 25% +3  10 - 7 4 - 2 +9 +22 A+ D A+ -13 F A+ C
 Thu, Jan 22 157 Towson L 59 - 72 55% -5  10 - 8 4 - 3 -16 -2 C- C F -17 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 24 164 @College of Charleston L 77 - 81 34%
 Thu, Jan 29 138 William & Mary L 83 - 84 50%
 Sat, Jan 31 242 Stony Brook W 77 - 71 71%
 Thu, Feb 5 230 @Hampton L 73 - 74 47%
 Sat, Feb 7 203 Drexel W 72 - 68 64%
 Thu, Feb 12 125 @UNC Wilmington L 71 - 78 26%
 Sat, Feb 14 138 @William & Mary L 80 - 86 28%
 Sat, Feb 21 304 N.C. A&T W 84 - 75 81%
 Thu, Feb 26 157 @Towson L 68 - 73 33%
 Sat, Feb 28 202 @Monmouth L 73 - 75 42%
 Tue, Mar 3 125 UNC Wilmington L 74 - 75 47%
Totals 15 - 14 9 - 9 -2 +3 B+ C C -5 D+ D- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.6 1.8 0.6 0.1 4.1 1st
2nd 0.1 2.6 3.8 0.9 0.0 7.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.7 5.8 1.6 0.1 9.2 3rd
4th 0.3 5.6 3.8 0.2 10.0 4th
5th 0.0 2.7 7.7 0.9 0.0 11.3 5th
6th 0.5 7.7 3.7 0.0 11.9 6th
7th 0.0 3.3 8.0 0.6 11.9 7th
8th 0.8 6.7 2.8 0.0 10.3 8th
9th 0.2 3.5 5.5 0.3 9.4 9th
10th 0.1 1.4 5.0 1.4 7.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 2.6 2.0 0.1 5.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.2 12th
13th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
Total 0.1 1.1 4.7 11.5 17.6 21.7 19.3 13.3 7.1 2.7 0.7 0.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1
14-4 93.4% 0.6    0.5 0.2 0.0
13-5 64.6% 1.8    0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0
12-6 22.1% 1.6    0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.1% 4.1 1.4 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.1% 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.7% 12.4% 12.4% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
13-5 2.7% 16.1% 16.1% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.3
12-6 7.1% 13.3% 13.3% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 6.1
11-7 13.3% 9.4% 9.4% 14.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 12.1
10-8 19.3% 6.6% 6.6% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.0 18.1
9-9 21.7% 3.5% 3.5% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.0 21.0
8-10 17.6% 2.4% 2.4% 15.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 17.1
7-11 11.5% 1.5% 1.5% 15.6 0.1 0.1 11.3
6-12 4.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 4.7
5-13 1.1% 1.1
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 14.3 94.6 0.0%