Elon
Colonial Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.2#207
Expected Predictive Rating-3.0#227
Pace68.5#204
Improvement+0.7#106

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#177
First Shot-0.7#207
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#141
Layup/Dunks-3.1#281
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#237
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#81
Freethrows+0.6#158
Improvement+0.2#146

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#242
First Shot+2.1#110
After Offensive Rebounds-4.3#344
Layups/Dunks+7.6#13
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#262
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.7#348
Freethrows+2.4#62
Improvement+0.6#104
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.6% 7.8% 4.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.3 14.1
.500 or above 48.3% 71.9% 46.1%
.500 or above in Conference 57.6% 72.2% 56.2%
Conference Champion 5.5% 10.2% 5.1%
Last Place in Conference 5.0% 2.2% 5.2%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round4.5% 7.8% 4.2%
Second Round0.4% 0.9% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Notre Dame (Away) - 8.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 34 - 74 - 11
Quad 411 - 515 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 8   @ North Carolina L 76-90 3%     0 - 1 +6.6 +6.8 +0.6
  Nov 15, 2024 219   @ Gardner-Webb L 79-80 41%     0 - 2 -0.7 +11.1 -11.9
  Nov 20, 2024 325   @ Northern Illinois W 75-48 65%     1 - 2 +20.9 +3.9 +18.1
  Nov 22, 2024 53   @ Notre Dame L 63-77 9%    
  Nov 29, 2024 236   Maine W 68-66 56%    
  Nov 30, 2024 309   Navy W 75-69 72%    
  Dec 01, 2024 267   @ Penn W 74-73 51%    
  Dec 07, 2024 206   Wofford W 72-69 61%    
  Dec 18, 2024 188   @ East Tennessee St. L 71-75 37%    
  Dec 21, 2024 171   UNC Greensboro W 70-69 55%    
  Dec 28, 2024 196   Marshall W 76-74 58%    
  Jan 02, 2025 285   @ N.C. A&T W 78-77 54%    
  Jan 04, 2025 307   Hampton W 73-64 79%    
  Jan 09, 2025 210   @ William & Mary L 77-80 40%    
  Jan 11, 2025 257   Campbell W 74-68 70%    
  Jan 16, 2025 144   @ Drexel L 65-71 29%    
  Jan 18, 2025 216   @ Delaware L 74-76 42%    
  Jan 23, 2025 265   Monmouth W 78-72 71%    
  Jan 25, 2025 112   College of Charleston L 75-78 39%    
  Jan 30, 2025 134   Hofstra L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 01, 2025 149   Northeastern W 73-72 50%    
  Feb 06, 2025 257   @ Campbell L 70-71 49%    
  Feb 08, 2025 112   @ College of Charleston L 72-81 21%    
  Feb 13, 2025 285   N.C. A&T W 81-74 73%    
  Feb 15, 2025 150   @ UNC Wilmington L 71-77 31%    
  Feb 20, 2025 129   Towson L 67-68 45%    
  Feb 22, 2025 210   William & Mary W 80-77 61%    
  Feb 27, 2025 265   @ Monmouth W 75-74 51%    
  Mar 01, 2025 302   @ Stony Brook W 74-72 58%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 5.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.6 1.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 6.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 3.5 2.3 0.5 0.0 7.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 4.0 2.7 0.5 0.0 8.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.0 3.6 0.7 0.0 9.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.3 4.5 1.3 0.1 9.5 6th
7th 0.1 2.3 5.0 1.9 0.2 9.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 4.8 2.8 0.3 9.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.5 3.7 0.6 0.0 8.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.4 3.7 1.0 0.0 7.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.0 1.4 0.1 0.0 6.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.4 1.5 0.2 5.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.6 14th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.6 5.5 7.9 10.1 12.2 12.5 12.1 10.8 8.6 6.3 4.0 2.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 99.2% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 94.3% 0.8    0.7 0.1 0.0
15-3 75.5% 1.6    1.0 0.5 0.1
14-4 43.7% 1.8    0.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 13.3% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.5% 5.5 2.8 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 46.2% 42.3% 3.8% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.7%
17-1 0.3% 38.4% 37.6% 0.8% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.3%
16-2 0.8% 32.7% 32.7% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6
15-3 2.1% 20.4% 20.4% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.7
14-4 4.0% 15.3% 15.3% 13.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.4
13-5 6.3% 12.5% 12.5% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 5.5
12-6 8.6% 10.4% 10.4% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 7.7
11-7 10.8% 6.0% 6.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 10.1
10-8 12.1% 2.9% 2.9% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 11.8
9-9 12.5% 1.7% 1.7% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 12.3
8-10 12.2% 1.1% 1.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 12.1
7-11 10.1% 0.6% 0.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 10.1
6-12 7.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.9
5-13 5.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.5
4-14 3.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.6
3-15 1.9% 1.9
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.4 1.1 0.5 95.4 0.0%