Elon
Colonial Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.4#158
Expected Predictive Rating+2.6#125
Pace63.5#312
Improvement-0.7#213

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#149
First Shot-2.8#262
After Offensive Rebound+3.8#15
Layup/Dunks-2.8#286
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#285
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#150
Freethrows+1.0#111
Improvement-0.7#225

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#187
First Shot+2.5#101
After Offensive Rebounds-3.0#351
Layups/Dunks+3.2#67
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#204
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#291
Freethrows+2.1#52
Improvement+0.0#180
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.5% 13.2% 9.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.6 13.8
.500 or above 98.5% 99.2% 95.6%
.500 or above in Conference 94.2% 96.4% 84.8%
Conference Champion 17.4% 19.8% 7.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round12.5% 13.2% 9.6%
Second Round0.8% 0.9% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Monmouth (Home) - 81.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 35 - 66 - 8
Quad 414 - 320 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 26   @ North Carolina L 76-90 8%     0 - 1 +2.5 +6.9 -3.5
  Nov 15, 2024 241   @ Gardner-Webb L 79-80 58%     0 - 2 -2.6 +9.6 -12.3
  Nov 20, 2024 356   @ Northern Illinois W 75-48 86%     1 - 2 +15.9 +1.0 +16.0
  Nov 22, 2024 77   @ Notre Dame W 84-77 18%     2 - 2 +17.0 +21.4 -3.8
  Nov 29, 2024 200   Maine L 56-69 59%     2 - 3 -14.8 -10.0 -5.9
  Nov 30, 2024 292   Navy W 69-63 78%     3 - 3 -1.5 -6.3 +4.9
  Dec 01, 2024 267   @ Penn W 68-53 64%     4 - 3 +11.8 +3.6 +10.7
  Dec 07, 2024 130   Wofford W 79-56 55%     5 - 3 +22.2 +8.3 +15.3
  Dec 18, 2024 147   @ East Tennessee St. L 58-84 37%     5 - 4 -22.1 -8.9 -15.1
  Dec 21, 2024 129   UNC Greensboro W 73-69 54%     6 - 4 +3.4 +7.7 -3.9
  Dec 28, 2024 178   Marshall W 73-59 65%     7 - 4 +10.4 +0.3 +10.3
  Jan 02, 2025 322   @ N.C. A&T W 75-67 75%     8 - 4 1 - 0 +1.4 +7.2 -4.9
  Jan 04, 2025 254   Hampton W 70-62 79%     9 - 4 2 - 0 -0.1 -1.2 +1.6
  Jan 09, 2025 194   @ William & Mary L 65-78 47%     9 - 5 2 - 1 -11.8 -1.7 -11.9
  Jan 13, 2025 250   Campbell W 81-68 78%     10 - 5 3 - 1 +5.2 +13.1 -6.8
  Jan 16, 2025 186   @ Drexel W 65-54 45%     11 - 5 4 - 1 +12.6 +8.6 +6.3
  Jan 18, 2025 195   @ Delaware L 77-79 47%     11 - 6 4 - 2 -0.8 -0.1 -0.7
  Jan 23, 2025 268   Monmouth W 74-65 81%    
  Jan 25, 2025 126   College of Charleston W 75-74 53%    
  Jan 30, 2025 175   Hofstra W 64-60 65%    
  Feb 01, 2025 202   Northeastern W 72-67 68%    
  Feb 06, 2025 250   @ Campbell W 69-66 59%    
  Feb 08, 2025 126   @ College of Charleston L 72-77 32%    
  Feb 13, 2025 322   N.C. A&T W 81-69 88%    
  Feb 15, 2025 135   @ UNC Wilmington L 68-72 34%    
  Feb 20, 2025 174   Towson W 66-62 65%    
  Feb 22, 2025 194   William & Mary W 79-74 68%    
  Feb 27, 2025 268   @ Monmouth W 71-67 62%    
  Mar 01, 2025 320   @ Stony Brook W 72-65 73%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.1 5.5 6.9 3.4 0.6 17.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 5.8 8.4 2.1 0.1 17.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.8 9.0 3.0 0.1 16.0 3rd
4th 1.4 8.5 4.7 0.3 14.8 4th
5th 0.2 4.9 5.4 0.6 11.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.8 5.7 1.5 0.0 8.9 6th
7th 0.3 3.3 2.2 0.1 5.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 2.4 0.3 3.9 8th
9th 0.3 1.5 0.7 2.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.1 1.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.8 8.5 14.5 19.8 21.1 17.1 9.1 3.5 0.6 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.6    0.6
15-3 96.0% 3.4    2.8 0.5 0.0
14-4 75.7% 6.9    3.7 2.5 0.6 0.1
13-5 32.0% 5.5    0.9 2.4 1.7 0.5 0.0
12-6 5.1% 1.1    0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.4% 17.4 8.0 5.7 2.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.6% 27.4% 27.4% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
15-3 3.5% 28.8% 28.8% 12.7 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 2.5
14-4 9.1% 20.6% 20.6% 13.1 0.3 1.1 0.4 0.0 7.2
13-5 17.1% 18.5% 18.5% 13.5 0.3 1.2 1.5 0.1 14.0
12-6 21.1% 14.3% 14.3% 13.8 0.1 0.8 1.7 0.4 0.0 18.1
11-7 19.8% 9.5% 9.5% 14.1 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.4 17.9
10-8 14.5% 5.8% 5.8% 14.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 13.6
9-9 8.5% 4.2% 4.2% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 8.2
8-10 3.8% 3.6% 3.6% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.7
7-11 1.5% 2.0% 2.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 1.5
6-12 0.4% 0.4
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.5% 12.5% 0.0% 13.6 0.1 1.1 4.2 5.6 1.5 0.0 87.5 0.0%