Furman
Southern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.1#165
Expected Predictive Rating+4.1#105
Pace64.5#282
Improvement-6.0#349

Offense
Total Offense+1.1#151
First Shot-0.2#181
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#108
Layup/Dunks-3.5#301
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#233
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#39
Freethrows-0.9#244
Improvement-0.1#191

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#203
First Shot+1.3#134
After Offensive Rebounds-2.2#333
Layups/Dunks-4.0#319
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#299
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.7#1
Freethrows-1.1#261
Improvement-5.8#360
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.9% 10.0% 8.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.8 14.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 89.2% 90.8% 66.4%
Conference Champion 1.4% 1.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round9.9% 10.0% 8.7%
Second Round0.5% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Carolina (Home) - 93.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 39 - 410 - 8
Quad 410 - 220 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 140   @ Belmont W 76-74 36%     1 - 0 +5.8 +1.3 +4.5
  Nov 11, 2024 179   Jacksonville W 78-69 64%     2 - 0 +5.6 +2.3 +2.9
  Nov 15, 2024 141   Tulane W 75-67 56%     3 - 0 +6.7 +6.5 +0.6
  Nov 23, 2024 285   @ Charleston Southern W 67-46 67%     4 - 0 +16.7 -2.4 +20.5
  Nov 26, 2024 162   Seattle W 61-56 50%     5 - 0 +5.2 -3.0 +8.9
  Nov 30, 2024 7   @ Kansas L 51-86 3%     5 - 1 -13.5 -6.5 -9.1
  Dec 04, 2024 164   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 76-73 40%     6 - 1 +5.6 +8.0 -2.2
  Dec 07, 2024 129   Princeton W 69-63 53%     7 - 1 +5.4 +0.0 +5.8
  Dec 14, 2024 229   South Carolina St. W 68-64 73%     8 - 1 -2.2 +4.9 -6.4
  Dec 21, 2024 241   @ Harvard W 77-63 59%     9 - 1 +11.9 +12.8 +0.6
  Jan 01, 2025 350   @ Western Carolina W 90-61 84%     10 - 1 1 - 0 +18.7 +14.7 +4.1
  Jan 04, 2025 159   @ UNC Greensboro L 67-84 39%     10 - 2 1 - 1 -14.1 +3.1 -19.2
  Jan 08, 2025 358   @ The Citadel W 67-63 OT 86%     11 - 2 2 - 1 -7.6 -13.2 +5.4
  Jan 13, 2025 151   Wofford L 62-81 57%     11 - 3 2 - 2 -20.7 -5.9 -17.3
  Jan 15, 2025 153   East Tennessee St. W 73-70 58%     12 - 3 3 - 2 +1.2 +3.5 -2.1
  Jan 18, 2025 138   Chattanooga L 71-75 55%     12 - 4 3 - 3 -5.1 -1.9 -3.4
  Jan 22, 2025 304   @ VMI L 82-91 71%     12 - 5 3 - 4 -14.6 +6.3 -20.9
  Jan 25, 2025 222   @ Mercer W 79-74 54%     13 - 5 4 - 4 +4.1 +10.9 -6.5
  Jan 29, 2025 109   Samford W 72-70 45%     14 - 5 5 - 4 +3.4 -1.4 +4.9
  Feb 02, 2025 153   @ East Tennessee St. L 69-72 38%     14 - 6 5 - 5 +0.2 +6.5 -6.7
  Feb 05, 2025 350   Western Carolina W 79-64 93%    
  Feb 08, 2025 138   @ Chattanooga L 71-75 34%    
  Feb 12, 2025 222   Mercer W 77-71 73%    
  Feb 15, 2025 159   UNC Greensboro W 69-67 60%    
  Feb 19, 2025 109   @ Samford L 73-79 26%    
  Feb 22, 2025 304   VMI W 77-66 84%    
  Feb 26, 2025 358   The Citadel W 76-59 95%    
  Mar 01, 2025 151   @ Wofford L 68-71 37%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.6 0.9 1.4 1st
2nd 0.9 4.5 0.7 6.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 6.1 4.0 10.4 3rd
4th 0.2 4.9 11.4 0.5 16.9 4th
5th 0.1 3.5 15.4 5.4 24.5 5th
6th 0.1 3.4 15.4 10.7 0.4 30.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 4.6 3.2 0.1 8.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.2 2.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.8 8.9 22.4 31.3 24.3 9.6 1.6 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 57.4% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0
12-6 5.7% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 1.6% 23.9% 23.9% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.2
12-6 9.6% 16.6% 16.6% 13.2 0.1 1.1 0.4 0.0 8.0
11-7 24.3% 11.7% 11.7% 13.7 0.1 1.0 1.6 0.2 21.4
10-8 31.3% 9.6% 9.6% 14.0 0.0 0.5 1.9 0.6 0.0 28.3
9-9 22.4% 6.3% 6.3% 14.3 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 21.0
8-10 8.9% 6.1% 6.1% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 8.3
7-11 1.8% 4.5% 4.5% 15.3 0.1 0.0 1.7
6-12 0.2% 0.0 0.2
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.9% 9.9% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.4 2.9 4.8 1.7 0.1 90.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 12.6 2.7 37.8 59.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%