Furman
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.6 #165
Expected Predictive Rating -0.4 #168
Pace 66.2 #259
Improvement -1.3 #250

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #193 C+ D+ D- D- B-
Defense #151 B- C D A- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #252 1.31 #45 +1.2 #132
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #315 0.94 #20 -1.6 #261
Three Pointers 50% #28 0.90 #316 +1.8 #120
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #128 +1.4 #134
Freethrows 15.9 #275 66% #345 10.5 #316
Second Chance 31.2% #163 0.91 #335 0.28 #256
Turnovers 19.1% #326
Total Offense -1.1 #193

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #240 1.14 #158 +1.4 #129
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #77 0.77 #200 -1.5 #296
Three Pointers 40% #227 0.92 #72 +2.6 #86
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #98 +2.6 #98
Freethrows 13.7 #21 73% #225 10.0 #26
Second Chance 29.9% #149 1.11 #277 0.33 #216
Turnovers 14.6% #291
Total Defense +0.5 #151

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.3% #95 -1.1% #81
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.2% #145 -4.0% #105
Possession Length 17.5 #195 17.4 #194
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #118 0.20 #270
Improvement -2.1 #299 +0.8 #133

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.7% 20.2% 15.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.1 14.6
.500 or above 96.4% 98.5% 92.5%
.500 or above in Conference 92.7% 96.8% 85.3%
Conference Champion 9.4% 12.6% 3.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
First Round18.6% 20.2% 15.7%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Greensboro (Away) - 64.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 35 - 46 - 7
Quad 413 - 518 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 98 High Point L 71 - 97 29% -17  0 - 1 -21 -5 C+ D- F -14 F B- F
 Fri, Nov 7 112 Troy L 61 - 64 46% -7  0 - 2 -3 -11 D+ D- F +8 A- A+ A
 Fri, Nov 14 110 @Northern Iowa L 54 - 70 24% -10  0 - 3 -9 -5 D D D- -5 C- B+ F
 Sun, Nov 23 177 Queens W 90 - 79 64% +11  1 - 3 +7 +21 A+ F A+ -13 B F F
 Thu, Nov 27 120 Richmond W 73 - 72 37% +6  2 - 3 +4 +2 B+ A+ F +2 B- C A+
 Fri, Nov 28 90 Illinois St. L 65 - 72 25% -4  2 - 4 -1 -1 A- F F +0 A- F C-
 Wed, Dec 3 184 @Elon W 97 - 88 43% -1  3 - 4 +10 +19 A+ F A+ -8 B+ C F
 Sat, Dec 6 168 Harvard W 79 - 69 62% +7  4 - 4 +6 +7 A+ B+ F -0 B- B+ F
 Thu, Dec 18 327 @Manhattan W 75 - 68 74% +2  5 - 4 -0 -4 C D F +3 C+ C- B-
 Sun, Dec 21 234 Charleston Southern W 84 - 76 73% +6  6 - 4 +1 +3 C+ B- C -3 B C+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 149 Mercer W 74 - 72 57% +3  7 - 4 1 - 0 -0 +1 B F C+ -1 A+ D+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 289 Western Carolina L 77 - 80 OT 82% -3  7 - 5 1 - 1 -13 -4 C- F C+ -10 C F D
 Wed, Jan 7 247 @Chattanooga W 78 - 67 55% +5  8 - 5 2 - 1 +9 +5 C- B- D+ +4 C+ C B+
 Sat, Jan 10 349 VMI W 69 - 48 91% +10  9 - 5 3 - 1 +6 -8 D B+ F +15 A+ C- A+
 Wed, Jan 14 249 @Samford W 77 - 73 55% +2  10 - 5 4 - 1 +2 +1 C- D+ D +2 C+ C C
 Sat, Jan 17 215 Wofford L 70 - 74 71% +3  10 - 6 4 - 2 -10 -1 F A- F -9 F D F
 Wed, Jan 21 351 @The Citadel L 75 - 77 OT 80% +6  10 - 7 4 - 3 -12 -4 D- F D+ -8 B- F F
 Fri, Jan 23 294 @UNC Greensboro W 76 - 72 65%
 Thu, Jan 29 249 Samford W 77 - 70 75%
 Sun, Feb 1 247 Chattanooga W 75 - 68 75%
 Wed, Feb 4 135 @East Tennessee St. L 67 - 72 31%
 Sun, Feb 8 294 UNC Greensboro W 79 - 69 82%
 Wed, Feb 11 149 @Mercer L 75 - 79 34%
 Sat, Feb 14 349 @VMI W 77 - 68 79%
 Wed, Feb 18 135 East Tennessee St. W 70 - 69 53%
 Sat, Feb 21 215 @Wofford L 74 - 75 49%
 Wed, Feb 25 351 The Citadel W 77 - 62 92%
 Sat, Feb 28 289 @Western Carolina W 77 - 73 64%
Totals 17 - 11 11 - 7 -1 -1 C+ D+ D- +0 B- C D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 3.5 3.9 1.1 9.4 1st
2nd 0.1 2.0 7.8 7.5 1.2 18.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.9 11.9 10.5 2.2 0.0 28.6 3rd
4th 0.2 3.5 11.1 8.1 1.6 0.0 24.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 5.6 3.6 0.4 10.9 5th
6th 0.5 2.4 2.0 0.2 0.0 5.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.2 2.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.7 5.1 11.5 18.8 22.4 20.7 13.2 5.1 1.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 1.1    0.9 0.1
14-4 76.6% 3.9    2.0 1.7 0.3
13-5 26.5% 3.5    0.7 1.6 1.1 0.1
12-6 4.2% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.4% 9.4 3.6 3.7 1.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 1.1% 41.4% 41.4% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6
14-4 5.1% 34.9% 34.9% 13.4 0.1 0.9 0.8 0.1 3.3
13-5 13.2% 28.0% 28.0% 13.9 0.1 0.9 2.2 0.6 0.0 9.5
12-6 20.7% 21.7% 21.7% 14.2 0.0 0.6 2.6 1.3 0.0 16.2
11-7 22.4% 17.1% 17.1% 14.5 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.9 0.2 18.6
10-8 18.8% 14.4% 14.4% 14.9 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.4 16.1
9-9 11.5% 10.1% 10.1% 15.2 0.1 0.7 0.3 10.3
8-10 5.1% 7.9% 7.9% 15.5 0.2 0.2 4.7
7-11 1.7% 8.1% 8.1% 15.7 0.0 0.1 1.6
6-12 0.3% 9.0% 9.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3
5-13 0.1% 0.0 0.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 18.7% 18.7% 0.0% 14.3 81.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 12.5 3.4 49.4 43.8 3.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%