Furman
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.1#153
Expected Predictive Rating+0.5#164
Pace65.5#285
Improvement+4.6#5

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#138
First Shot+3.2#94
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#307
Layup/Dunks+3.6#67
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#300
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#50
Freethrows-2.7#317
Improvement+4.2#2

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#196
First Shot+0.4#155
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#276
Layups/Dunks-0.1#180
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#350
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#134
Freethrows+2.7#41
Improvement+0.4#149
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.7% 21.5% 15.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.0 14.5
.500 or above 87.5% 92.0% 77.0%
.500 or above in Conference 90.7% 92.4% 86.7%
Conference Champion 24.8% 27.4% 19.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four0.6% 0.4% 1.0%
First Round19.4% 21.4% 15.0%
Second Round1.1% 1.4% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Harvard (Home) - 69.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 34 - 55 - 8
Quad 414 - 419 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 93 High Point L 71-97 31%     0 - 1 -20.7 -5.6 -14.0
  Fri, Nov 7 146 Troy L 61-64 59%     0 - 2 -5.2 -10.7 +5.5
  Fri, Nov 14 87 @Northern Iowa L 54-70 20%     0 - 3 -7.1 -6.8 -1.8
  Sun, Nov 23 199 Queens W 90-79 70%     1 - 3 +5.6 +20.1 -13.3
  Thu, Nov 27 104 Richmond W 73-72 33%     2 - 3 +5.5 +2.9 +2.6
  Fri, Nov 28 101 Illinois St. L 65-72 32%     2 - 4 -2.2 -2.8 +0.3
  Wed, Dec 3 223 @Elon W 97-88 53%     3 - 4 +8.3 +16.8 -8.8
  Sat, Dec 6 193 Harvard W 72-67 70%    
  Thu, Dec 18 310 @Manhattan W 78-73 68%    
  Sun, Dec 21 288 Charleston Southern W 78-68 82%    
  Wed, Dec 31 191 Mercer W 79-74 69%    
  Sat, Jan 3 281 Western Carolina W 79-69 81%    
  Wed, Jan 7 209 @Chattanooga W 72-71 50%    
  Sat, Jan 10 337 VMI W 80-66 90%    
  Wed, Jan 14 228 @Samford W 74-73 54%    
  Sat, Jan 17 208 Wofford W 77-71 70%    
  Wed, Jan 21 363 @The Citadel W 77-65 86%    
  Sat, Jan 24 293 @UNC Greensboro W 74-70 66%    
  Thu, Jan 29 228 Samford W 77-70 74%    
  Sun, Feb 1 209 Chattanooga W 75-69 70%    
  Wed, Feb 4 115 @East Tennessee St. L 69-75 29%    
  Sun, Feb 8 293 UNC Greensboro W 77-67 82%    
  Wed, Feb 11 191 @Mercer L 76-77 48%    
  Sat, Feb 14 337 @VMI W 77-69 77%    
  Wed, Feb 18 115 East Tennessee St. L 72-73 49%    
  Sat, Feb 21 208 @Wofford W 74-73 50%    
  Wed, Feb 25 363 The Citadel W 80-62 95%    
  Sat, Feb 28 281 @Western Carolina W 76-72 63%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.9 6.4 7.0 5.2 2.1 0.5 24.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 5.9 8.9 6.0 1.9 0.3 24.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.7 6.0 7.0 2.6 0.5 0.0 17.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 4.5 5.1 1.6 0.1 12.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.9 3.0 3.4 0.9 0.0 8.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.2 2.4 0.6 0.0 5.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.2 1.4 0.4 0.0 3.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.4 4.7 7.0 10.3 13.5 15.2 14.6 12.9 8.9 5.6 2.1 0.5 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 100.0% 2.1    2.1 0.1
16-2 94.4% 5.2    4.6 0.7
15-3 78.5% 7.0    4.8 2.1 0.1
14-4 49.6% 6.4    3.3 2.6 0.5 0.0
13-5 19.8% 2.9    0.7 1.5 0.6 0.1
12-6 4.2% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 24.8% 24.8 16.0 7.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 54.3% 54.3% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
17-1 2.1% 49.7% 49.7% 12.5 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1
16-2 5.6% 37.8% 37.8% 13.1 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.0 3.5
15-3 8.9% 34.1% 34.1% 13.6 0.2 1.1 1.4 0.3 5.9
14-4 12.9% 28.7% 28.7% 14.0 0.1 0.9 1.9 0.8 0.0 9.2
13-5 14.6% 22.3% 22.3% 14.3 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.1 0.1 11.3
12-6 15.2% 17.2% 17.2% 14.6 0.1 0.9 1.3 0.3 12.6
11-7 13.5% 13.8% 13.8% 14.9 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.4 11.7
10-8 10.3% 8.1% 8.1% 15.5 0.0 0.4 0.4 9.5
9-9 7.0% 7.2% 7.2% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 6.5
8-10 4.7% 6.2% 6.2% 15.8 0.1 0.2 4.4
7-11 2.4% 2.5% 2.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.4
6-12 1.4% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 1.3
5-13 0.5% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.5
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 19.7% 19.7% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.0 6.9 5.3 1.9 80.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.4 3.5 5.3 45.6 38.6 7.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%