Wofford
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.3 #215
Expected Predictive Rating -0.3 #165
Pace 68.9 #182
Improvement +0.8 #139

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #141 D+ D+ B- B+ B
Defense #297 D+ D C- C D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #151 1.01 #332 -2.4 #269
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #317 0.71 #246 -2.8 #312
Three Pointers 47% #65 1.00 #209 +2.4 #102
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #257 -2.8 #256
Freethrows 20.5 #38 73% #183 14.9 #51
Second Chance 29.2% #228 0.96 #282 0.28 #262
Turnovers 15.3% #108
Total Offense +0.7 #141

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #20 1.13 #138 -3.6 #303
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #237 0.82 #285 +0.2 #175
Three Pointers 36% #314 1.11 #306 +1.0 #141
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #259 -2.4 #260
Freethrows 16.0 #119 79% #358 12.6 #185
Second Chance 31.8% #242 1.16 #314 0.37 #301
Turnovers 15.4% #248
Total Defense -4.1 #297

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.8% #62 1.6% #319
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.2% #297 3.1% #236
Possession Length 17.9 #233 16.6 #66
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #299 0.16 #143
Improvement +4.7 #6 -3.9 #347

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.5% 11.4% 7.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.7 15.1
.500 or above 95.2% 98.7% 92.1%
.500 or above in Conference 94.6% 98.5% 91.2%
Conference Champion 12.4% 21.0% 4.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.4%
First Round9.3% 11.3% 7.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mercer (Home) - 46.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 53 - 8
Quad 416 - 418 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 86 @George Mason L 46 - 70 11% -9  0 - 1 -14 -19 F D F +3 B+ D A-
 Sat, Nov 8 248 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 86 - 76 67% +12  1 - 1 +2 +2 F A- D+ -1 B- A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 27 @Auburn L 62 - 93 4% -19  1 - 2 -13 -6 F F C -7 C F B-
 Sat, Nov 15 300 @Bellarmine W 94 - 86 56% +8  2 - 2 +3 +13 A+ F D -10 C F F
 Wed, Nov 19 350 North Florida W 86 - 78 87% +1  3 - 2 -7 -3 F B+ C -5 D- A+ D-
 Wed, Nov 26 178 @Northern Kentucky L 83 - 93 31% -2  3 - 3 -8 +6 F D- A+ -14 F F F
 Sat, Nov 29 254 @Eastern Kentucky W 83 - 77 45% +8  4 - 3 +4 +4 F D A+ -0 A+ F F
 Wed, Dec 3 266 Presbyterian W 63 - 56 70% +4  5 - 3 -2 -7 F D- A+ +6 A+ D- C-
 Sat, Dec 6 184 Elon L 52 - 73 55% -21  5 - 4 -26 -19 F F C+ -10 D- A+ B-
 Mon, Dec 15 363 @Gardner-Webb W 83 - 57 88% +11  6 - 4 +10 +3 F A+ D +7 B- A+ B+
 Wed, Dec 17 103 @Wichita St. L 73 - 84 15% -7  6 - 5 -3 +8 C- A- B -12 F B D-
 Wed, Dec 31 289 @Western Carolina W 79 - 74 54% +3  7 - 5 1 - 0 +1 +1 C D+ D- -1 A- C C+
 Sat, Jan 3 351 @The Citadel W 95 - 86 73% +8  8 - 5 2 - 0 -1 +21 A+ F D- -21 F F C+
 Wed, Jan 7 294 UNC Greensboro W 97 - 85 76% +11  9 - 5 3 - 0 +1 +18 D- A+ A+ -16 F F D-
 Sat, Jan 10 149 @Mercer L 97 - 109 25% -7  9 - 6 3 - 1 -8 +15 B A- C+ -23 F F C+
 Wed, Jan 14 247 Chattanooga L 67 - 76 67% +2  9 - 7 3 - 2 -17 -9 F F A+ -8 F A C
 Sat, Jan 17 165 @Furman W 74 - 70 29% -3  10 - 7 4 - 2 +6 +11 A- C B+ -4 A F C-
 Wed, Jan 21 249 Samford W 88 - 78 67% +1  11 - 7 5 - 2 +2 +15 A+ C- B- -12 F F C
 Sat, Jan 24 149 Mercer L 81 - 82 47%
 Thu, Jan 29 247 @Chattanooga L 75 - 77 44%
 Sat, Jan 31 135 East Tennessee St. L 73 - 75 43%
 Wed, Feb 4 349 @VMI W 80 - 74 72%
 Sat, Feb 7 289 Western Carolina W 83 - 76 74%
 Wed, Feb 11 249 @Samford L 78 - 79 45%
 Sat, Feb 14 294 @UNC Greensboro W 79 - 78 55%
 Wed, Feb 18 349 VMI W 83 - 71 87%
 Sat, Feb 21 165 Furman W 75 - 74 51%
 Wed, Feb 25 135 @East Tennessee St. L 70 - 78 23%
 Sat, Feb 28 351 The Citadel W 80 - 68 87%
Totals 17 - 12 11 - 7 -3 +1 D+ D+ B- -4 D+ D C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 3.9 4.9 2.3 0.3 12.4 1st
2nd 0.1 2.2 8.3 8.5 2.1 0.1 21.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 4.0 12.2 10.5 2.4 0.1 29.2 3rd
4th 0.2 3.5 9.8 7.3 1.3 0.0 21.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 4.9 3.0 0.3 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.3 2.0 1.6 0.2 4.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.1 1.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.1 10.2 17.0 21.9 20.9 14.8 7.1 2.4 0.3 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.3    0.3
15-3 97.2% 2.3    1.8 0.4 0.0
14-4 69.6% 4.9    2.5 2.1 0.3
13-5 26.6% 3.9    0.9 2.0 1.0 0.1
12-6 4.2% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.4% 12.4 5.6 4.8 1.6 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.3% 27.5% 27.5% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-3 2.4% 24.0% 24.0% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.8
14-4 7.1% 17.9% 17.9% 14.4 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 5.8
13-5 14.8% 14.0% 14.0% 14.6 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.1 12.7
12-6 20.9% 10.6% 10.6% 14.9 0.0 0.4 1.5 0.3 18.7
11-7 21.9% 7.3% 7.3% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.5 20.3
10-8 17.0% 6.4% 6.4% 15.5 0.0 0.5 0.6 15.9
9-9 10.2% 4.3% 4.3% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 9.8
8-10 4.1% 2.8% 2.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 4.0
7-11 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.1
6-12 0.2% 0.2
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.5% 9.5% 0.0% 14.9 90.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%