Western Carolina
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.3 #289
Expected Predictive Rating -7.7 #293
Pace 72.9 #75
Improvement +0.9 #136

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #231 D+ C- D C- C
Defense #317 F C+ D D+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #147 1.09 #269 -0.9 #216
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #165 0.76 #168 +0.2 #162
Three Pointers 40% #210 0.97 #244 -1.6 #238
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #243 -2.2 #243
Freethrows 16.7 #225 70% #251 11.8 #229
Second Chance 33.1% #116 0.92 #329 0.30 #209
Turnovers 18.1% #285
Total Offense -2.4 #231

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #286 1.18 #216 +1.6 #126
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #174 0.89 #336 -1.4 #292
Three Pointers 44% #83 1.18 #351 -5.4 #348
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #329 -5.2 #330
Freethrows 18.2 #229 75% #282 13.7 #263
Second Chance 29.5% #131 1.03 #163 0.30 #131
Turnovers 14.5% #293
Total Defense -5.0 #317

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.1% #190 -0.5% #119
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.4% #250 10.7% #341
Possession Length 17.5 #186 16.8 #86
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #319 0.20 #262
Improvement +2.6 #48 -1.7 #283

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.9% 2.1% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 1.1% 1.3% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 20.6% 24.6% 6.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 8.1% 3.7% 23.4%
First Four1.6% 1.7% 1.3%
First Round1.2% 1.3% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: VMI (Home) - 77.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 32 - 53 - 11
Quad 47 - 810 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 49 @Cincinnati L 63 - 94 4% -20  0 - 1 -17 -6 C- C- F -7 F C A
 Sat, Nov 8 3 @Duke L 54 - 95 1% -23  0 - 2 -16 -11 F D+ B+ -2 A C F
 Sun, Nov 16 332 Stetson W 76 - 65 73% +8  1 - 2 -3 -7 B F F +4 A+ C- F
 Wed, Nov 19 205 UNC Asheville W 80 - 73 44% +1  2 - 2 +1 +12 D+ B+ A- -10 F A+ D+
 Sat, Nov 22 174 @Lipscomb L 62 - 83 19% -12  2 - 3 -19 -12 F D F -6 F D+ C-
 Sat, Nov 29 98 @High Point L 73 - 93 8% -7  2 - 4 -12 -3 A+ F F -8 F A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 303 @South Carolina Upstate L 67 - 78 42% -4  2 - 5 -16 -8 F D+ C -8 D+ C C+
 Thu, Dec 11 58 @Virginia Tech L 74 - 96 4% -15  2 - 6 -9 +5 B C C- -13 F D- C+
 Thu, Dec 18 24 @Georgia L 82 - 112 2% -16  2 - 7 -11 +7 A+ B- C- -14 F A+ C
 Wed, Dec 31 215 Wofford L 74 - 79 46% -3  2 - 8 0 - 1 -11 -6 F D F -5 F C+ B-
 Sat, Jan 3 165 @Furman W 80 - 77 OT 18% +3  3 - 8 1 - 1 +5 +8 C A D -2 C- A- F
 Wed, Jan 7 249 @Samford L 77 - 82 30% +6  3 - 9 1 - 2 -7 +4 F A+ F -11 F D D
 Sat, Jan 10 351 @The Citadel L 77 - 79 OT 59% +2  3 - 10 1 - 3 -12 -2 F F B -10 C- F F
 Wed, Jan 14 135 East Tennessee St. W 72 - 68 29% -0  4 - 10 2 - 3 +3 +7 B B D- -4 C+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 247 Chattanooga L 82 - 90 52% +3  4 - 11 2 - 4 -16 +11 B- D- A+ -27 F F F
 Wed, Jan 21 149 @Mercer L 76 - 88 15% -14  4 - 12 2 - 5 -8 +3 D A F -11 B F F
 Sat, Jan 24 349 VMI W 82 - 74 77%
 Thu, Jan 29 135 @East Tennessee St. L 69 - 81 14%
 Sat, Jan 31 249 Samford W 80 - 79 52%
 Wed, Feb 4 294 @UNC Greensboro L 78 - 81 40%
 Sat, Feb 7 215 @Wofford L 76 - 83 26%
 Wed, Feb 11 351 The Citadel W 79 - 71 78%
 Sat, Feb 14 247 @Chattanooga L 74 - 80 30%
 Wed, Feb 18 294 UNC Greensboro W 81 - 78 62%
 Sat, Feb 21 349 @VMI W 79 - 77 57%
 Wed, Feb 25 149 Mercer L 80 - 85 33%
 Sat, Feb 28 165 Furman L 73 - 77 36%
Totals 9 - 18 7 - 11 -7 -2 D+ C- D -5 F C+ D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.2 2.2 3rd
4th 0.1 2.1 2.9 0.7 0.0 5.8 4th
5th 0.2 3.9 6.4 1.9 0.1 12.5 5th
6th 0.2 3.9 9.4 3.3 0.2 17.0 6th
7th 0.2 4.0 11.4 5.3 0.4 21.2 7th
8th 0.4 5.1 12.0 6.3 0.5 0.0 24.3 8th
9th 0.4 3.3 6.3 2.9 0.2 13.1 9th
10th 0.2 1.1 1.5 0.6 0.0 3.4 10th
Total 0.2 1.5 5.3 12.1 19.1 22.1 19.2 12.3 5.9 2.0 0.4 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 20.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6 5.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.4% 6.3% 6.3% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.4
11-7 2.0% 6.3% 6.3% 15.3 0.1 0.0 1.9
10-8 5.9% 4.9% 4.9% 15.9 0.0 0.3 5.6
9-9 12.3% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.4 11.9
8-10 19.2% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.5 18.7
7-11 22.1% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.3 21.8
6-12 19.1% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.2 18.9
5-13 12.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 12.0
4-14 5.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.2
3-15 1.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.5
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 15.9 98.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%