UNC Asheville
Big South
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.5#166
Expected Predictive Rating+0.4#163
Pace69.1#178
Improvement+4.0#16

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#143
First Shot-1.3#210
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#55
Layup/Dunks-1.9#256
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#19
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#270
Freethrows-0.5#213
Improvement+1.9#47

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#216
First Shot-1.1#203
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#223
Layups/Dunks-1.5#228
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#261
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#58
Freethrows-2.1#313
Improvement+2.1#40
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.9% 21.4% 16.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 13.9 14.4
.500 or above 78.8% 89.9% 73.5%
.500 or above in Conference 81.6% 86.5% 79.2%
Conference Champion 23.9% 29.5% 21.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 0.9% 2.1%
First Four0.7% 0.4% 0.9%
First Round17.6% 21.2% 15.8%
Second Round1.1% 1.6% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Wilmington (Away) - 32.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 34 - 55 - 8
Quad 411 - 416 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 8   @ Alabama L 54-110 4%     0 - 1 -35.6 -15.1 -17.4
  Nov 09, 2024 149   @ Ohio L 76-82 35%     0 - 2 -2.6 +0.3 -2.7
  Nov 18, 2024 188   @ North Florida W 89-75 41%     1 - 2 +15.7 +16.0 +0.2
  Nov 22, 2024 289   Southeast Missouri St. W 72-64 73%     2 - 2 +1.2 -1.3 +2.6
  Nov 24, 2024 339   @ Central Arkansas L 83-92 2OT 77%     2 - 3 -17.3 -5.1 -11.0
  Dec 01, 2024 316   @ Tennessee St. W 92-74 69%     3 - 3 +12.3 +13.7 -2.1
  Dec 03, 2024 87   @ George Mason L 52-74 17%     3 - 4 -12.6 -10.2 -3.9
  Dec 14, 2024 311   Western Carolina W 78-61 84%     4 - 4 +5.6 +0.6 +4.7
  Dec 17, 2024 188   North Florida W 95-81 64%     5 - 4 +9.7 +10.9 -1.9
  Dec 21, 2024 134   @ UNC Wilmington L 71-76 32%    
  Jan 04, 2025 135   High Point W 76-75 55%    
  Jan 08, 2025 172   @ Longwood L 72-75 40%    
  Jan 11, 2025 250   @ Presbyterian W 73-72 55%    
  Jan 15, 2025 338   South Carolina Upstate W 85-71 90%    
  Jan 18, 2025 187   Winthrop W 80-76 63%    
  Jan 22, 2025 238   @ Gardner-Webb W 77-76 53%    
  Jan 25, 2025 301   @ Charleston Southern W 76-72 65%    
  Jan 29, 2025 204   Radford W 73-68 66%    
  Feb 05, 2025 238   Gardner-Webb W 80-73 73%    
  Feb 08, 2025 135   @ High Point L 73-78 33%    
  Feb 12, 2025 338   @ South Carolina Upstate W 82-74 76%    
  Feb 15, 2025 301   Charleston Southern W 79-69 82%    
  Feb 19, 2025 204   @ Radford L 70-71 45%    
  Feb 22, 2025 172   Longwood W 75-72 61%    
  Feb 26, 2025 250   Presbyterian W 76-69 75%    
  Mar 01, 2025 187   @ Winthrop L 77-79 42%    
Projected Record 15 - 11 10 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.8 7.1 6.6 4.0 1.4 0.3 23.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 5.1 7.8 4.2 1.0 0.1 19.2 2nd
3rd 0.6 5.2 7.5 2.8 0.3 0.0 16.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 4.1 6.5 2.2 0.1 13.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.9 5.6 1.8 0.1 10.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.0 1.5 0.1 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.4 1.0 0.1 5.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.0 2.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.8 5.3 8.5 11.9 14.5 15.6 14.6 11.6 7.6 4.1 1.4 0.3 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
15-1 100.0% 1.4    1.4 0.0
14-2 98.1% 4.0    3.7 0.3 0.0
13-3 87.1% 6.6    4.9 1.6 0.1
12-4 61.1% 7.1    3.4 3.1 0.6 0.0
11-5 26.0% 3.8    0.9 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.0
10-6 4.3% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 23.9% 23.9 14.7 6.8 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.3% 48.0% 48.0% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
15-1 1.4% 44.8% 44.8% 12.7 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8
14-2 4.1% 39.3% 39.3% 13.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.5
13-3 7.6% 34.3% 34.3% 13.5 0.1 1.2 1.1 0.2 5.0
12-4 11.6% 26.6% 26.6% 13.9 0.0 0.7 1.7 0.6 0.0 8.5
11-5 14.6% 21.1% 21.1% 14.3 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.2 0.1 11.5
10-6 15.6% 16.7% 16.7% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.2 13.0
9-7 14.5% 12.8% 12.8% 15.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.4 12.6
8-8 11.9% 10.3% 10.3% 15.2 0.1 0.8 0.4 10.7
7-9 8.5% 8.0% 8.0% 15.8 0.2 0.5 7.8
6-10 5.3% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3 5.0
5-11 2.8% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 2.8
4-12 1.3% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 1.3
3-13 0.4% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.4
2-14 0.1% 0.1
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 17.9% 17.9% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 3.5 6.0 5.4 2.0 82.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.6 6.7 33.3 56.7 3.3