UNC Asheville
Big South
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.8 #205
Expected Predictive Rating -5.8 #258
Pace 66.4 #254
Improvement +2.1 #88

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #218 C- C D+ C+ F
Defense #205 C- B- C- C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% #357 1.12 #222 -6.3 #348
2 Pt. Jumpers 39% #2 0.83 #82 +8.4 #1
Three Pointers 32% #336 1.05 #138 -3.8 #309
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #229 -1.7 #228
Freethrows 19.5 #84 68% #301 13.3 #138
Second Chance 28.9% #232 1.08 #132 0.31 #189
Turnovers 17.9% #271
Total Offense -1.8 #218

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #46 1.17 #186 -3.4 #293
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #210 0.89 #338 -0.8 #246
Three Pointers 37% #296 0.99 #152 +2.6 #86
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #229 -1.6 #232
Freethrows 18.8 #264 68% #28 12.8 #204
Second Chance 31.2% #207 0.94 #51 0.29 #109
Turnovers 15.4% #241
Total Defense -1.0 #205

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -6.1% #364 1.1% #276
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.8% #135 1.9% #214
Possession Length 18.7 #308 17.3 #187
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #287 0.19 #253
Improvement +0.7 #144 +1.4 #100

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.6% 6.7% 4.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.5 15.9
.500 or above 13.3% 13.7% 2.5%
.500 or above in Conference 79.1% 80.4% 44.8%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.7%
First Four2.9% 2.9% 4.2%
First Round5.5% 5.6% 3.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Gardner-Webb (Home) - 96.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 31 - 61 - 10
Quad 411 - 612 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 103 @Wichita St. L 58 - 75 16% -4  0 - 1 -9 -10 F A+ F -0 A F A+
 Sat, Nov 8 251 @Georgia Southern L 90 - 93 47% +1  0 - 2 -5 +3 C+ B+ F -8 F A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 174 Lipscomb W 69 - 64 55% +4  1 - 2 +1 +1 A- B F +0 A+ C- C
 Wed, Nov 19 289 @Western Carolina L 73 - 80 56% -1  1 - 3 -11 +3 A- F D -15 C- D- F
 Tue, Nov 25 241 Tennessee St. L 73 - 75 67% +3  1 - 4 -9 -8 A+ F F -2 C+ F A+
 Sun, Nov 30 206 Appalachian St. W 67 - 55 62% +8  2 - 4 +6 -2 D- A+ F +9 A- A+ C
 Tue, Dec 2 294 UNC Greensboro W 82 - 77 68% +0  3 - 4 -3 +9 C+ B C+ -11 F C B
 Sat, Dec 6 26 @North Carolina St. L 63 - 75 4% -3  3 - 5 +6 +0 F C C+ +5 A+ F A+
 Wed, Dec 10 89 Miami (OH) L 87 - 90 OT 27% -6  3 - 6 +0 +5 B+ C- B- -4 C A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 131 St. Thomas L 59 - 80 44% -13  3 - 7 -22 -12 F D+ F -11 D C- D
 Sun, Dec 21 117 @UAB L 47 - 72 21% -13  3 - 8 -19 -19 F F F -2 D A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 98 High Point L 69 - 87 31% -11  3 - 9 0 - 1 -16 -3 F C+ A+ -14 F D A-
 Sat, Jan 3 234 @Charleston Southern L 83 - 86 43% -6  3 - 10 0 - 2 -4 +8 F A+ C+ -12 F F A+
 Wed, Jan 7 262 Longwood W 72 - 61 71% +6  4 - 10 1 - 2 +2 +1 C D C+ +2 C+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 253 @Radford W 91 - 72 47% +9  5 - 10 2 - 2 +17 +11 A+ F C +5 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 266 @Presbyterian L 70 - 71 50% -6  5 - 11 2 - 3 -4 +1 F C C+ -5 F A C+
 Sat, Jan 17 130 Winthrop L 67 - 69 44% -6  5 - 12 2 - 4 -3 -7 F F B+ +4 A+ A A+
 Wed, Jan 21 303 @South Carolina Upstate W 83 - 69 59% +6  6 - 12 3 - 4 +9 +14 A D C+ -4 F A+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 363 Gardner-Webb W 85 - 66 97%
 Sat, Jan 31 130 @Winthrop L 70 - 78 24%
 Wed, Feb 4 303 South Carolina Upstate W 75 - 67 78%
 Thu, Feb 12 262 @Longwood L 73 - 74 50%
 Sat, Feb 14 266 Presbyterian W 71 - 65 71%
 Thu, Feb 19 98 @High Point L 71 - 82 15%
 Sat, Feb 21 253 Radford W 80 - 75 69%
 Thu, Feb 26 363 @Gardner-Webb W 82 - 69 89%
 Sat, Feb 28 234 Charleston Southern W 77 - 73 65%
Totals 12 - 15 9 - 7 -3 -2 C- C D+ -1 C- B- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 2.3 0.4 4.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.1 15.3 15.0 3.4 0.1 37.0 3rd
4th 1.2 11.8 11.8 1.8 0.0 26.7 4th
5th 0.3 6.2 9.0 1.5 0.0 17.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 2.2 5.9 1.4 0.0 9.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.5 0.8 0.0 4.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.9 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.2 5.3 14.2 25.3 28.8 18.4 6.0 0.7 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 36.1% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1
11-5 2.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.7% 17.0% 17.0% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6
11-5 6.0% 11.5% 11.5% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 5.3
10-6 18.4% 9.6% 9.6% 15.1 0.1 1.4 0.3 16.6
9-7 28.8% 6.8% 6.8% 15.9 0.2 1.7 26.8
8-8 25.3% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 1.3 24.0
7-9 14.2% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.6 13.6
6-10 5.3% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.2 5.1
5-11 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.2
4-12 0.2% 0.2
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 15.5 93.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 13.2 8.0 68.0 24.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%