St. Thomas
Summit League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.8#166
Expected Predictive Rating-0.2#180
Pace69.4#187
Improvement+1.0#103

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#163
First Shot+5.2#50
After Offensive Rebound-5.2#359
Layup/Dunks+9.2#5
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#360
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#81
Freethrows-2.8#320
Improvement+0.6#133

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#191
First Shot-2.3#245
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#91
Layups/Dunks-2.8#284
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#25
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#259
Freethrows+0.0#181
Improvement+0.4#153
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.8% 23.4% 18.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.4 14.9
.500 or above 90.3% 94.6% 82.1%
.500 or above in Conference 90.5% 92.4% 86.9%
Conference Champion 26.9% 29.4% 22.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.4% 0.9%
First Four1.3% 1.0% 1.8%
First Round21.1% 22.8% 17.9%
Second Round0.7% 0.8% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Weber St. (Home) - 65.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 34 - 44 - 6
Quad 415 - 519 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 42 @St. Mary's L 58-84 8%     0 - 1 -11.2 -1.9 -11.4
  Sat, Nov 8 342 Army W 83-76 89%     1 - 1 -7.3 +4.2 -11.3
  Mon, Nov 10 158 @Washington St. L 71-81 36%     1 - 2 -7.2 -1.0 -6.4
  Thu, Nov 13 264 Green Bay W 80-61 78%     2 - 2 +10.2 +1.0 +9.1
  Sat, Nov 15 233 @Southeast Missouri St. W 84-72 52%     3 - 2 +10.8 +4.4 +5.4
  Fri, Nov 21 151 Northern Colorado W 73-72 46%     4 - 2 +1.3 -2.4 +3.6
  Sat, Nov 22 303 Cal St. Fullerton L 80-88 75%     4 - 3 -15.9 -3.7 -11.5
  Sun, Nov 23 270 @Portland W 76-66 59%     5 - 3 +6.9 +0.0 +6.7
  Wed, Dec 3 152 @Montana St. L 74-82 35%     5 - 4 -4.9 +5.5 -10.7
  Sun, Dec 7 192 Weber St. W 78-74 66%    
  Sat, Dec 13 210 @UNC Asheville L 75-76 48%    
  Sat, Dec 20 271 UC Riverside W 77-69 78%    
  Sun, Jan 4 291 Denver W 82-73 81%    
  Wed, Jan 7 276 South Dakota W 84-76 79%    
  Sat, Jan 10 311 @Oral Roberts W 80-75 66%    
  Thu, Jan 15 340 @North Dakota W 77-70 74%    
  Sat, Jan 17 149 @North Dakota St. L 70-74 35%    
  Thu, Jan 22 147 South Dakota St. W 74-72 55%    
  Sat, Jan 24 276 @South Dakota W 81-79 58%    
  Thu, Jan 29 340 North Dakota W 80-67 89%    
  Sun, Feb 1 339 UMKC W 79-66 88%    
  Wed, Feb 4 147 @South Dakota St. L 71-75 34%    
  Sat, Feb 7 311 Oral Roberts W 83-72 83%    
  Thu, Feb 12 252 @Nebraska Omaha W 77-76 55%    
  Sat, Feb 14 339 @UMKC W 76-69 74%    
  Sat, Feb 21 291 @Denver W 79-76 61%    
  Thu, Feb 26 149 North Dakota St. W 73-71 56%    
  Sat, Feb 28 252 Nebraska Omaha W 80-73 74%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.2 6.1 8.3 6.4 3.0 0.7 26.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.1 8.7 8.3 3.0 0.4 25.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 5.4 8.4 5.3 1.1 0.1 21.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.7 5.4 2.6 0.2 12.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.4 1.2 0.1 7.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.9 0.7 0.0 4.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.5 5.1 8.7 12.7 15.4 16.4 15.5 11.3 6.8 3.0 0.7 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
15-1 100.0% 3.0    3.0 0.1
14-2 93.4% 6.4    5.4 0.9 0.0
13-3 73.3% 8.3    5.1 2.8 0.4 0.0
12-4 39.2% 6.1    2.5 2.8 0.7 0.1
11-5 13.4% 2.2    0.4 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0
10-6 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 26.9% 26.9 17.1 7.9 1.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.7% 59.0% 59.0% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3
15-1 3.0% 47.6% 47.6% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.6
14-2 6.8% 40.3% 40.3% 13.8 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.4 0.0 4.1
13-3 11.3% 32.1% 32.1% 14.2 0.0 0.6 1.7 1.2 0.1 7.7
12-4 15.5% 28.5% 28.5% 14.6 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.2 0.4 11.1
11-5 16.4% 21.5% 21.5% 14.9 0.1 0.9 1.9 0.7 12.9
10-6 15.4% 17.8% 17.8% 15.2 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.9 12.7
9-7 12.7% 12.5% 12.5% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 11.1
8-8 8.7% 8.7% 8.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 7.9
7-9 5.1% 7.0% 7.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3 4.7
6-10 2.5% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.1 2.4
5-11 1.3% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 1.3
4-12 0.4% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4
3-13 0.1% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 21.8% 21.8% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.5 6.5 8.0 4.1 78.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 11.8 2.7 26.7 54.7 13.3 2.7