St. Thomas
Summit League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.7 #131
Expected Predictive Rating +3.1 #116
Pace 70.5 #136
Improvement +1.7 #103

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #130 A F B- D+ A
Defense #157 C D+ B C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #64 1.35 #19 +6.7 #14
2 Pt. Jumpers 9% #349 0.57 #353 -5.0 #359
Three Pointers 48% #54 1.08 #94 +4.9 #38
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #28 +6.6 #28
Freethrows 16.4 #236 70% #261 11.6 #248
Second Chance 18.9% #364 1.01 #230 0.19 #363
Turnovers 15.4% #112
Total Offense +1.4 #130

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #102 1.23 #267 -3.1 #284
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #269 0.67 #57 +1.7 #62
Three Pointers 41% #197 1.01 #177 +0.3 #161
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #206 -1.0 #208
Freethrows 15.7 #96 76% #303 11.8 #139
Second Chance 30.0% #152 1.20 #335 0.36 #280
Turnovers 18.7% #62
Total Defense +0.3 #157

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.4% #15 1.1% #273
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 9.1% #46 0.8% #199
Possession Length 17.0 #140 17.0 #132
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #157 0.15 #90
Improvement +1.0 #127 +0.7 #137

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36.3% 38.3% 31.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.4 13.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
Conference Champion 44.8% 52.1% 27.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round36.2% 38.3% 31.5%
Second Round1.6% 1.8% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota (Away) - 69.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 34 - 44 - 6
Quad 418 - 222 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 42 @St. Mary's L 58 - 84 11% -11  0 - 1 -11 -2 A+ F C -10 F A C+
 Sat, Nov 8 333 Army W 83 - 76 92% +11  1 - 1 -7 +2 C- C B+ -9 F C+ C
 Mon, Nov 10 141 @Washington St. L 71 - 81 41% -15  1 - 2 -6 -0 B- F B- -6 C+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 13 255 Green Bay W 80 - 61 82% +19  2 - 2 +11 -0 A F C +11 A+ C A+
 Sat, Nov 15 245 @Southeast Missouri St. W 84 - 72 63% +13  3 - 2 +10 +5 A+ F F +4 B- D B
 Fri, Nov 21 185 Northern Colorado W 73 - 72 63% -5  4 - 2 -1 -5 D C F +4 B F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 229 Cal St. Fullerton L 80 - 88 71% +1  4 - 3 -12 -0 F D A+ -11 C- C D-
 Sun, Nov 23 210 @Portland W 76 - 66 57% +5  5 - 3 +10 +3 C+ D+ A+ +7 C- F A+
 Wed, Dec 3 152 @Montana St. L 74 - 82 43% -1  5 - 4 -4 +6 A+ F F -11 C- D+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 217 Weber St. W 88 - 65 78% +18  6 - 4 +17 +11 A+ B- B- +5 B+ C A+
 Sat, Dec 13 205 @UNC Asheville W 80 - 59 56% +13  7 - 4 +21 +12 A+ D- B +11 A- C A+
 Sat, Dec 20 293 UC Riverside W 92 - 78 87% +7  8 - 4 +3 +15 A+ D- A+ -12 D- D C
 Sun, Jan 4 280 Denver W 92 - 88 86% +3  9 - 4 1 - 0 -6 +6 C D- A -12 C- F C
 Wed, Jan 7 283 South Dakota W 99 - 86 86% +15  10 - 4 2 - 0 +3 +15 A+ F A -12 F D+ A
 Sat, Jan 10 321 @Oral Roberts W 82 - 71 79% +2  11 - 4 3 - 0 +4 +11 B- F A+ -6 F C F
 Thu, Jan 15 297 @North Dakota W 91 - 80 73% +5  12 - 4 4 - 0 +6 +11 A+ F C -5 D F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 147 @North Dakota St. L 65 - 68 42% -3  12 - 5 4 - 1 +1 -6 C F F +7 B- A+ B
 Thu, Jan 22 170 South Dakota St. W 74 - 69 71% -1  13 - 5 5 - 1 +1 -1 B D F +2 C B B
 Sat, Jan 24 283 @South Dakota W 85 - 79 70%
 Thu, Jan 29 297 North Dakota W 84 - 71 88%
 Sun, Feb 1 353 UMKC W 85 - 67 95%
 Wed, Feb 4 170 @South Dakota St. L 76 - 77 49%
 Sat, Feb 7 321 Oral Roberts W 82 - 67 92%
 Thu, Feb 12 261 @Nebraska Omaha W 78 - 74 65%
 Sat, Feb 14 353 @UMKC W 82 - 70 87%
 Sat, Feb 21 280 @Denver W 85 - 80 70%
 Thu, Feb 26 147 North Dakota St. W 76 - 72 64%
 Sat, Feb 28 261 Nebraska Omaha W 81 - 71 83%
Totals 21 - 7 13 - 3 +2 +1 A F B- +0 C D+ B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 4.7 14.1 17.7 7.6 44.8 1st
2nd 0.2 2.4 10.0 17.2 13.7 3.5 47.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 2.6 2.6 0.7 6.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.7 5.3 13.3 22.6 27.9 21.2 7.6 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 7.6    6.9 0.8
14-2 83.4% 17.7    11.8 5.8
13-3 50.8% 14.1    6.4 7.4 0.3
12-4 20.6% 4.7    1.2 2.8 0.7 0.0
11-5 4.7% 0.6    0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1
10-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 44.8% 44.8 26.3 17.2 1.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 7.6% 50.2% 50.2% 12.3 0.2 2.2 1.3 0.1 3.8
14-2 21.2% 44.1% 44.1% 13.2 0.0 1.2 5.2 2.8 0.1 11.8
13-3 27.9% 37.8% 37.8% 13.6 0.4 4.1 5.3 0.8 0.0 17.3
12-4 22.6% 32.8% 32.8% 13.9 0.1 1.8 4.2 1.3 15.2
11-5 13.3% 26.5% 26.5% 14.2 0.0 0.4 1.9 1.2 0.0 9.8
10-6 5.3% 22.5% 22.5% 14.5 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 4.1
9-7 1.7% 19.9% 19.9% 15.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.3
8-8 0.4% 16.4% 16.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.3
7-9 0.0% 0.0
6-10 0.0% 0.0
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 36.3% 36.3% 0.0% 13.5 63.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.8% 100.0% 12.3 5.1 58.2 35.0 1.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.4%