Southeast Missouri St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.8#265
Expected Predictive Rating-5.5#254
Pace71.2#98
Improvement+1.0#144

Offense
Total Offense-4.0#282
First Shot-0.5#193
After Offensive Rebound-3.4#342
Layup/Dunks-1.6#249
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.1#7
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#233
Freethrows-3.2#346
Improvement+2.4#60

Defense
Total Defense-1.8#224
First Shot-0.5#193
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#291
Layups/Dunks-0.8#203
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#239
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#16
Freethrows-4.2#360
Improvement-1.4#266
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.7% 20.6% 12.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 69.7% 84.8% 58.5%
.500 or above in Conference 98.6% 99.8% 97.7%
Conference Champion 20.0% 35.8% 8.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four8.8% 10.0% 7.8%
First Round11.2% 15.7% 7.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Morehead St. (Away) - 42.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 31 - 6
Quad 415 - 816 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 94   @ Bradley L 60-88 10%     0 - 1 -19.7 -8.9 -10.5
  Nov 10, 2024 57   @ Vanderbilt L 76-85 6%     0 - 2 +3.3 +5.2 -1.5
  Nov 17, 2024 138   Chattanooga L 82-87 33%     0 - 3 -6.1 -3.9 -1.6
  Nov 21, 2024 341   @ Central Arkansas W 77-73 OT 63%     1 - 3 -5.3 -8.3 +2.6
  Nov 22, 2024 172   UNC Asheville L 64-72 30%     1 - 4 -8.4 -10.5 +2.0
  Nov 30, 2024 235   UMKC W 80-59 54%     2 - 4 +14.2 -1.8 +14.1
  Dec 05, 2024 110   @ Lipscomb L 60-78 14%     2 - 5 -12.0 -9.5 -2.7
  Dec 08, 2024 171   @ Murray St. L 53-73 22%     2 - 6 -17.8 -11.8 -8.8
  Dec 19, 2024 332   Eastern Illinois W 79-72 76%     3 - 6 1 - 0 -6.2 +7.9 -13.6
  Dec 21, 2024 266   SIU Edwardsville W 80-64 60%     4 - 6 2 - 0 +7.6 +7.9 +0.3
  Jan 02, 2025 289   @ Tennessee St. W 67-65 45%     5 - 6 3 - 0 -2.5 -10.1 +7.5
  Jan 04, 2025 307   @ Tennessee Martin L 63-66 51%     5 - 7 3 - 1 -9.0 -4.8 -4.6
  Jan 09, 2025 324   Southern Indiana W 77-66 74%     6 - 7 4 - 1 -1.5 -2.5 +0.9
  Jan 11, 2025 282   Morehead St. L 56-67 63%     6 - 8 4 - 2 -20.2 -14.0 -7.3
  Jan 14, 2025 227   Arkansas Little Rock L 71-73 51%     6 - 9 4 - 3 -8.0 -0.3 -7.7
  Jan 16, 2025 298   @ Tennessee Tech W 77-70 48%     7 - 9 5 - 3 +1.8 +5.6 -3.4
  Jan 23, 2025 349   @ Lindenwood L 68-72 66%     7 - 10 5 - 4 -14.0 -8.8 -5.0
  Jan 25, 2025 354   @ Western Illinois W 72-51 69%     8 - 10 6 - 4 +10.2 +2.7 +10.0
  Jan 30, 2025 307   Tennessee Martin W 90-79 69%     9 - 10 7 - 4 +0.1 +11.3 -11.2
  Feb 01, 2025 289   Tennessee St. W 89-87 OT 64%     10 - 10 8 - 4 -7.5 +2.4 -10.1
  Feb 06, 2025 282   @ Morehead St. L 67-69 42%    
  Feb 08, 2025 324   @ Southern Indiana W 73-71 54%    
  Feb 11, 2025 227   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 65-70 31%    
  Feb 15, 2025 298   Tennessee Tech W 75-71 67%    
  Feb 20, 2025 354   Western Illinois W 73-63 84%    
  Feb 22, 2025 349   Lindenwood W 76-67 82%    
  Feb 27, 2025 266   @ SIU Edwardsville L 68-70 40%    
  Mar 01, 2025 332   @ Eastern Illinois W 70-68 57%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 2.4 9.6 6.5 1.4 20.0 1st
2nd 1.8 11.5 7.9 0.6 21.8 2nd
3rd 0.7 9.4 9.9 1.0 21.1 3rd
4th 0.1 5.1 11.0 1.5 17.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 2.3 7.9 2.5 0.0 12.9 5th
6th 0.6 2.8 1.8 0.1 5.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.0 1.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 1.3 5.8 15.5 24.9 25.4 18.5 7.1 1.4 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 1.4    1.4 0.1
15-5 91.4% 6.5    4.2 2.2 0.1
14-6 51.9% 9.6    2.7 4.7 2.1 0.2
13-7 9.6% 2.4    0.1 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 20.0% 20.0 8.3 7.5 3.2 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 1.4% 40.3% 40.3% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.9
15-5 7.1% 34.6% 34.6% 15.8 0.0 0.6 1.9 4.7
14-6 18.5% 27.1% 27.1% 15.9 0.5 4.6 13.5
13-7 25.4% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0 0.2 3.9 21.3
12-8 24.9% 9.5% 9.5% 16.0 0.1 2.3 22.5
11-9 15.5% 6.9% 6.9% 16.0 0.0 1.1 14.4
10-10 5.8% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.2 5.7
9-11 1.3% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 1.2
8-12 0.1% 0.1
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 15.7% 15.7% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.7 13.8 84.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 14.7 3.4 25.9 67.2 3.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%