Southeast Missouri St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -3.7 223
Results Rating -3.7 232
Consistency 0.15 178
Pace 72.1 89
Improvement +1.7 125

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 293 D+ C C C C+
Defense C+ 143 C- C C F D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 57 C- 55% 251 +1.6 117
2 Pt. Jumpers 42% 135 D+ 35% 283 -1.0 234
Three Pointers 37% 265 D 31% 304 -3.8 309
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.4 118 D -3.5 303
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.96 280
Second Chance D+ 27.6% 260 B+ 1.17 28 C 0.32 143
Opponents' Steals C- 9.7% 218
Other Turnovers C 7.1% 164
Turnovers C 16.9% 191
Freethrows C+ 0.32 121 D 68% 316 C 0.22 182
Total Offense D+ -4.5 293

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots D 38% 322 C 11.4% 203
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 27% 144 B- 3.9% 105
Three Pointers C+ 86% 135 D- 1.7% 332
Total D 49% 311 D+ 6.3% 267


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 55 C+ 56% 110 +1.9 242
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 223 F+ 44% 348 +0.6 242
Three Pointers 37% 284 C 34% 187 -1.8 106
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.5 272 C +0.1 188
1st FG Attempt C- 1.04 201
Second Chance B- 27.6% 79 D 1.12 297 C 0.31 179
Turnovers from Steals D+ 8.5% 254
Other Turnovers B+ 8.6% 38
Turnovers C 17.1% 154
Freethrows F 0.40 358 D- 75% 331 F 0.30 363
Total Defense C+ +0.9 143

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B+ 39% 26 C 11.2% 161
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 30% 264 D 2.3% 320
Three Pointers D+ 87% 270 A- 2.0% 28
Total B- 51% 81 C+ 6.0% 144

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.7 100 17.0 127
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 241 0.20 268
Consistency 0.11 97 0.12 118
Improvement -1.6 271 +3.4 36

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 241 228 203
Results Rating Rank 240 229 180
Conference Record 14 - 6 14 - 6 14 - 6
Conference Finish 3 3 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 15
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19% 29% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.5 n/a
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four3% 4% 0%
First Round17% 27% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 32 - 22 - 5
Quad 415 - 817 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 24 @Saint Louis L 67 - 92 3% -10  22% 0 - 1 D+ -6 D -5 D F+ A C+ +2 B C B+
 Fri, Nov 7 46 @Missouri L 84 - 89 5% -2  32% 0 - 2 B +10 B +6 B+ C+ D- B +4 F A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 112 St. Thomas L 72 - 84 35% -13  0% 0 - 3 D- -12 F -11 D- C+ C C +0 F A A+
 Tue, Nov 18 29 @Iowa L 70 - 99 3% -19  0% 0 - 4 D -11 B- +4 B- A+ D- F -16 F F B-
 Tue, Nov 25 227 Cal Poly W 84 - 68 50% +3  38% 1 - 4 B+ +12 C +0 D+ C+ C A +11 A+ F A
 Wed, Nov 26 316 @Northern Arizona L 72 - 79 61% -7  1% 1 - 5 D- -14 F+ -9 F C- A D+ -5 C F C-
 Sat, Nov 29 195 Lipscomb L 77 - 88 56% -4  18% 1 - 6 F+ -16 F -10 F D+ F+ D+ -4 F+ C B+
 Sat, Dec 6 286 @Chattanooga W 74 - 70 52% -1  22% 2 - 6 C -0 C -0 C+ B F+ C+ +0 F+ D B+
 Thu, Dec 18 310 @Tennessee Tech L 74 - 85 59% -2  47% 2 - 7 0 - 1 F+ -17 D- -7 F A- F F -10 C- F+ F+
 Sat, Dec 20 196 @Tennessee St. W 91 - 82 33% +10  95% 3 - 7 1 - 1 B +10 B+ +8 A A+ F C+ +1 C A D-
 Thu, Jan 1 326 Eastern Illinois W 68 - 59 83% -2  37% 4 - 7 2 - 1 C- -5 F -10 F A+ A B+ +6 D+ A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 3 364 Western Illinois W 73 - 50 95% +9  80% 5 - 7 3 - 1 C +1 D- -6 D+ A D- A +9 A- A- A+
 Thu, Jan 8 337 @Southern Indiana W 84 - 76 70% +5  73% 6 - 7 4 - 1 C -1 B +7 A+ F B D- -8 F F A
 Sat, Jan 10 283 @Morehead St. L 69 - 71 50% +4  86% 6 - 8 4 - 2 D+ -6 C +1 D- C- A+ D- -7 F B- B
 Thu, Jan 15 276 Lindenwood L 76 - 88 71% -17  2% 6 - 9 4 - 3 F -21 F -13 F B+ C D- -7 D F C+
 Sat, Jan 17 250 SIU Edwardsville L 55 - 68 66% -16  0% 6 - 10 4 - 4 F -21 F -14 F D- F D- -8 F+ D- C-
 Tue, Jan 20 230 Tennessee Martin W 66 - 50 62% +18  99% 7 - 10 5 - 4 B +9 D+ -2 D+ A- C+ A+ +13 A C A+
 Thu, Jan 22 299 Arkansas Little Rock W 70 - 65 76% +5  85% 8 - 10 6 - 4 D+ -6 F+ -9 D+ F B- B- +3 B+ B- F
 Thu, Jan 29 364 @Western Illinois W 78 - 74 87% +2  72% 9 - 10 7 - 4 D- -12 D+ -3 B- D- F F+ -9 F B+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 326 @Eastern Illinois W 77 - 59 65% +12  97% 10 - 10 8 - 4 B +10 B +7 A+ F A- B +4 D+ C+ B+
 Thu, Feb 5 283 Morehead St. W 82 - 70 72% +9  93% 11 - 10 9 - 4 C+ +2 C- -1 B- A F B- +3 F+ C B
 Sat, Feb 7 337 Southern Indiana W 90 - 65 86% +5  53% 12 - 10 10 - 4 B +10 A +13 C- A+ A+ C- -2 C C- C-
 Thu, Feb 12 250 @SIU Edwardsville L 56 - 74 43% -1  58% 12 - 11 10 - 5 F -20 F -12 D- F+ C+ F+ -9 D+ F D-
 Sat, Feb 14 276 @Lindenwood W 73 - 61 49% +2  54% 13 - 11 11 - 5 B +9 D -4 D F C+ A+ +13 A- A+ F
 Tue, Feb 17 230 @Tennessee Martin W 56 - 53 OT 39% +5  83% 14 - 11 12 - 5 C+ +2 F -16 F C+ F A+ +18 A+ A+ D-
 Sat, Feb 21 299 @Arkansas Little Rock W 70 - 65 56% +1  49% 15 - 11 13 - 5 C -0 D- -7 F+ F D- B+ +7 A- A F
 Thu, Feb 26 196 Tennessee St. L 71 - 79 56% +1  47% 15 - 12 13 - 6 D- -13 F -11 F C B+ C- -2 B- B D+
 Sat, Feb 28 310 Tennessee Tech W 89 - 73 79% +2  52% 16 - 12 14 - 6 C+ +4 A- +10 B D+ A+ D -6 D+ A F
Totals 16 - 12 14 - 6 -4 D+ -5 B D C+ C+ +1 D D C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C- D+ D D 43% 42% 37% C+ D+ D+ B+ C C C+ D C C+ C+ F+ C C 44% 19% 37% D+ C- B- D C C F D- F
1.02 55% 35% 31% -4 0 0.96 28% 1.2 .32 17% .32 68% .22 1.07 56% 44% 34% 0 +1 1.04 28% 1.1 .31 17% .40 75% .24
Nov
3		 Saint Louis D C D F C 25% 42% 32% F D F F+ F+ A A- D B C+ F B+ A B+ 49% 5% 46% C- B F+ A C B+ D F F+
0.87 53% 32% 26% -7 -4 0.80 15% 0.7 .11 12% .38 69% .26 1.19 71% 33% 31% +4 +3 1.16 39% 0.9 .33 19% .34 81% .27
Nov
7		 Missouri B A- A+ C A 26% 31% 43% D- B+ A F+ C+ D- A- A A B F F D F 41% 33% 27% A+ F B+ A+ A+ A+ F A F
1.09 64% 53% 35% +7 -2 1.11 38% 0.7 .26 21% .34 81% .28 1.15 75% 63% 38% +17 -1 1.33 31% 0.9 .28 25% .53 61% .33
Nov
15		 St. Thomas F D D- F+ D- 46% 23% 32% D+ D- F A+ C+ C F F F C F A+ F F 49% 11% 40% C- F A+ F A A+ F F F
0.94 54% 31% 28% -7 0 0.89 18% 2.0 .35 17% .19 58% .11 1.10 82% 0% 44% +14 +2 1.33 5% 2.0 .09 21% .43 85% .36
Nov
18		 Iowa B- D A+ C C+ 46% 17% 37% B B- A A+ A+ D- A F C F F F F+ F 41% 14% 45% C- F D+ F F B- F B- F
1.03 53% 57% 33% 0 +1 1.05 34% 1.5 .52 25% .41 57% .23 1.45 78% 67% 40% +16 +1 1.36 36% 1.8 .64 16% .68 74% .51
Nov
25		 Cal Poly C C- A F D 50% 7% 43% A D+ B- C C+ C C- A+ B A A+ A+ A+ A+ 34% 15% 51% A- A+ F F F A F D- F
1.12 59% 50% 28% -3 +3 1.02 34% 1.1 .37 16% .27 88% .24 0.91 31% 14% 21% -23 0 0.57 38% 1.2 .45 25% .66 84% .56
Nov
26		 Northern Arizona F+ D+ F F F 59% 7% 34% A F D B+ C- A F F F D+ C D C+ C 49% 26% 26% D+ C C- F F C- F D- F
1.04 56% 25% 20% -9 +3 0.90 29% 1.3 .36 12% .21 54% .11 1.14 57% 42% 33% 0 0 1.02 25% 2.4 .61 16% .43 72% .31
Nov
29		 Lipscomb F D- B F F 43% 26% 30% C F C D- D+ F+ A+ A- A+ D+ C- C+ F F+ 43% 11% 45% C- F+ A- F C B+ F B- F
0.96 52% 43% 19% -8 0 0.85 32% 0.8 .26 21% .47 77% .36 1.10 61% 33% 42% +6 +2 1.17 18% 1.3 .24 20% .40 73% .30
Dec
6		 Chattanooga C C+ D- B C+ 35% 19% 46% C- C+ C A B F+ F F F C+ B- F F F+ 48% 22% 30% D- F+ B+ F D B+ D- C- D-
1.12 61% 30% 38% +2 0 1.06 32% 1.4 .44 17% .16 56% .09 1.06 55% 50% 43% +5 +1 1.13 16% 1.8 .28 18% .31 76% .24
Dec
18		 Tennessee Tech D- F D+ F F 38% 13% 50% B F B+ B A- F A+ C+ A+ F C+ A+ F C- 43% 24% 33% D+ C- C F F+ F+ F F+ F
1.02 22% 33% 29% -18 +1 0.69 37% 1.3 .49 19% .53 77% .41 1.18 55% 18% 40% -3 0 0.96 29% 1.3 .39 15% .68 83% .57
Dec
20		 Tennessee St. B+ B A+ A A 44% 13% 42% C A C+ A+ A+ F A+ B- A+ C+ D+ A F C- 40% 36% 25% B- C A+ B+ A D- F B F
1.19 65% 67% 42% +12 +1 1.29 32% 1.7 .54 25% .50 76% .38 1.07 62% 26% 38% -1 -2 0.96 23% 0.9 .21 13% .54 72% .39
Jan
1		 Eastern Illinois F F F F F 65% 4% 31% A+ F D+ A+ A+ A C+ F F B+ A C- F C 53% 18% 29% F D+ A+ A+ A+ C- F C+ F
0.97 48% 0% 27% -11 +4 0.88 32% 1.9 .62 14% .33 45% .15 0.84 42% 38% 38% -7 +1 0.91 16% 0.4 .06 17% .38 73% .28
Jan
3		 Western Illinois D- D+ A+ D- D 59% 11% 30% A- D+ C- A+ A D- B D C+ A A- C A+ A 34% 27% 39% C- A- B- A+ A- A+ F F F
1.12 58% 60% 31% +1 +3 1.09 33% 1.6 .54 17% .35 68% .24 0.77 43% 36% 19% -15 -1 0.71 21% 0.7 .14 26% .54 73% .39
Jan
8		 Southern Indiana B A- B A+ A+ 50% 24% 26% C- A+ F+ F F B A+ F C+ D- C+ F A- F 41% 14% 45% F F F+ F F A F F F
1.20 68% 42% 54% +14 0 1.30 25% 0.7 .18 13% .46 54% .25 1.08 50% 71% 27% -3 +1 0.98 35% 1.2 .41 21% .49 85% .42
Jan
10		 Morehead St. C B+ F F D- 41% 22% 37% D+ D- D+ C+ C- A+ B+ D- B- D- F F F F 41% 34% 24% B F D A B- B F+ C+ D-
1.14 65% 27% 28% -3 0 0.96 33% 1.0 .33 8% .38 67% .25 1.18 71% 57% 40% +14 -2 1.27 38% 0.8 .29 20% .37 72% .27
Jan
15		 Lindenwood F F F+ D+ F 50% 12% 38% B F C- A+ B+ C B+ F+ C+ D- C A+ B C- 61% 4% 35% F D D- F F C+ F C+ F
0.93 41% 29% 32% -11 +2 0.84 31% 1.4 .44 17% .39 65% .25 1.08 57% 0% 29% -5 +4 1.00 35% 1.5 .51 20% .53 66% .35
Jan
17		 SIU Edwardsville F F A F F 45% 24% 31% B- F F A D- F A+ F A D- A F F D- 43% 24% 33% F+ F+ C+ F D- C- F+ D F+
0.87 37% 50% 23% -12 0 0.79 20% 1.2 .23 20% .46 65% .30 1.07 45% 45% 47% +2 0 1.07 27% 1.3 .35 17% .32 71% .23
Jan
20		 Tennessee Martin D+ D- D- C- D+ 27% 15% 58% B- D+ A- B+ A- C+ C F F+ A+ B- B A+ A+ 36% 8% 56% F A F A C A+ F A F
1.03 54% 29% 32% -4 0 0.94 40% 1.1 .43 19% .33 53% .17 0.78 54% 33% 20% -14 +1 0.78 46% 0.7 .31 33% .51 59% .30
Jan
22		 Arkansas Little Rock F+ B- C- D- D 43% 12% 45% B- D+ F F F B- A C A- B- A+ A F A- 37% 30% 33% D B+ A F B- F D- D D-
1.03 67% 33% 32% +2 +1 1.08 21% 0.7 .14 16% .37 71% .26 0.96 35% 25% 44% -7 -1 0.85 22% 1.3 .27 12% .28 71% .20
Jan
29		 Western Illinois D+ A+ F F C 51% 7% 42% A- B- F A+ D- F A+ D+ A+ F+ C A- D- F+ 35% 14% 51% F F B- A+ B+ F F D F
1.13 82% 0% 28% +6 +3 1.19 18% 1.8 .32 19% .59 70% .41 1.07 53% 29% 36% -2 +1 1.00 22% 0.8 .16 10% .47 69% .32
Jan
31		 Eastern Illinois B A F A+ A+ 43% 8% 49% B A+ D F F A- F D- F B A+ B F C 49% 20% 31% F D+ A- F C+ B+ C- C+ C-
1.18 71% 25% 46% +13 +2 1.33 30% 0.6 .17 15% .20 73% .14 0.91 38% 30% 47% -6 +1 0.92 20% 1.2 .23 21% .29 73% .21
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Morehead St. C- D- A A+ B- 51% 13% 36% B B- C A+ A F A D B+ B- B F D F+ 48% 23% 29% F+ F+ A+ F C B B+ D- B-
1.17 50% 50% 47% +4 +2 1.15 37% 1.4 .50 21% .40 68% .27 1.00 52% 64% 36% +4 0 1.10 24% 1.3 .32 20% .25 79% .20
Feb
7		 Southern Indiana A A- C F D+ 53% 23% 23% C C- A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C- A F A C+ 44% 18% 38% F+ C C- D+ C- C- F D F
1.33 68% 36% 18% -1 +1 1.02 44% 1.6 .70 9% .52 88% .45 0.96 41% 44% 26% -11 +1 0.82 30% 0.9 .27 16% .41 70% .28
Feb
12		 SIU Edwardsville F F F A+ D- 29% 27% 45% D D- F C+ F+ C+ D F F F+ B- F B- C- 42% 26% 32% D- D+ F+ F F D- F+ C D-
0.85 36% 15% 41% -8 -1 0.84 20% 1.0 .20 15% .29 50% .14 1.13 52% 46% 31% -2 0 0.98 33% 1.3 .42 15% .32 67% .22
Feb
14		 Lindenwood D A F F D- 55% 15% 30% B D D F F C+ A+ C- A+ A+ A+ F A+ A- 46% 23% 31% C A- A+ D+ A+ F F A+ D+
1.01 69% 0% 21% -5 +2 0.96 26% 0.6 .15 17% .66 70% .46 0.84 42% 50% 19% -12 0 0.79 17% 1.1 .20 14% .40 56% .22
Feb
17		 Tennessee Martin F F F F F 42% 19% 40% B F B D+ C+ F A+ C A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 30% 32% 38% A A+ B+ A+ A+ D- D C+ D+
0.78 40% 11% 21% -20 0 0.63 38% 0.9 .33 27% .46 71% .32 0.74 50% 24% 15% -18 -2 0.62 29% 0.6 .17 18% .34 65% .22
Feb
21		 Arkansas Little Rock D- A+ D+ F D 27% 33% 40% F F+ D+ F F D- A+ D A B+ C C+ A+ B+ 30% 44% 26% A A- B+ A+ A F F F F
1.03 92% 31% 26% +2 -2 1.02 33% 0.6 .21 21% .41 68% .28 0.95 60% 32% 23% -6 -4 0.82 25% 0.8 .19 13% .32 89% .29
Feb
26		 Tennessee St. F F F B+ F 54% 10% 36% B+ F D- A+ C B+ A D+ A- C- A+ F B B- 43% 35% 22% C B- D+ A+ B D+ F F F
0.96 37% 20% 39% -11 +2 0.86 24% 1.4 .32 16% .45 71% .32 1.07 40% 50% 30% -5 -1 0.89 34% 0.8 .28 15% .67 86% .57
Feb
28		 Tennessee Tech A- A+ F B- B+ 45% 25% 30% C B F+ A+ D+ A+ A+ B A+ D C+ F A+ C- 47% 19% 34% F+ D+ A+ F A F F F+ F
1.31 83% 15% 38% +7 0 1.17 22% 1.5 .33 6% .39 80% .31 1.07 55% 56% 25% -3 +1 0.98 15% 1.3 .19 12% .50 83% .42



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 100.0 100.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 100.0% 18.5% 18.5% 15.5 0.0 0.8 7.9 9.9 81.5
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 18.5% 18.5% 0.0% 15.5 81.5 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 18.5% 100.0% 15.5 0.0 4.0 42.7 53.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 20.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 24.4%
Lose Out 36.6%