Southeast Missouri St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.2#233
Expected Predictive Rating-9.6#304
Pace75.2#48
Improvement-0.9#252

Offense
Total Offense-3.1#249
First Shot-5.6#321
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#48
Layup/Dunks+1.4#131
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#38
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.2#355
Freethrows-2.0#289
Improvement-0.6#230

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#206
First Shot-1.6#223
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#151
Layups/Dunks+1.3#132
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#296
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#42
Freethrows-5.7#362
Improvement-0.3#219
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.0% 18.5% 13.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.4 15.7
.500 or above 47.2% 63.8% 38.8%
.500 or above in Conference 74.8% 81.0% 71.6%
Conference Champion 15.8% 20.8% 13.3%
Last Place in Conference 2.1% 1.3% 2.6%
First Four5.9% 5.2% 6.2%
First Round12.3% 16.0% 10.3%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chattanooga (Away) - 33.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 00 - 3
Quad 31 - 41 - 7
Quad 412 - 814 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 46 @Saint Louis L 67-92 5%     0 - 1 -10.9 -4.5 -4.1
  Fri, Nov 7 37 @Missouri L 84-89 4%     0 - 2 +10.8 +9.2 +2.1
  Sat, Nov 15 166 St. Thomas L 72-84 48%     0 - 3 -15.8 -9.2 -5.6
  Tue, Nov 18 27 @Iowa L 70-99 3%     0 - 4 -11.9 +6.7 -19.3
  Tue, Nov 25 243 Cal Poly W 84-68 51%     1 - 4 +11.4 +4.0 +6.4
  Wed, Nov 26 263 @Northern Arizona L 72-79 44%     1 - 5 -9.7 -2.1 -7.7
  Sat, Nov 29 164 Lipscomb L 77-88 48%     1 - 6 -14.7 -6.1 -7.2
  Sat, Dec 6 209 @Chattanooga L 73-77 34%    
  Thu, Dec 18 306 @Tennessee Tech W 78-77 53%    
  Sat, Dec 20 249 @Tennessee St. L 76-78 40%    
  Thu, Jan 1 325 Eastern Illinois W 75-67 77%    
  Sat, Jan 3 361 Western Illinois W 79-66 89%    
  Thu, Jan 8 317 @Southern Indiana W 79-78 55%    
  Sat, Jan 10 327 @Morehead St. W 74-72 58%    
  Thu, Jan 15 246 Lindenwood W 79-76 62%    
  Sat, Jan 17 206 SIU Edwardsville W 72-70 55%    
  Tue, Jan 20 239 Tennessee Martin W 74-71 61%    
  Thu, Jan 22 305 Arkansas Little Rock W 76-69 73%    
  Thu, Jan 29 361 @Western Illinois W 76-69 74%    
  Sat, Jan 31 325 @Eastern Illinois W 72-70 57%    
  Thu, Feb 5 327 Morehead St. W 77-69 77%    
  Sat, Feb 7 317 Southern Indiana W 82-75 75%    
  Thu, Feb 12 206 @SIU Edwardsville L 69-73 35%    
  Sat, Feb 14 246 @Lindenwood L 76-79 41%    
  Tue, Feb 17 239 @Tennessee Martin L 71-74 40%    
  Sat, Feb 21 305 @Arkansas Little Rock W 73-72 53%    
  Sat, Feb 28 306 Tennessee Tech W 81-74 73%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 11 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.2 3.0 4.4 3.7 2.5 0.9 0.1 15.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.0 5.3 2.8 0.8 0.1 16.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.9 5.6 5.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 14.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.6 5.2 4.5 1.1 0.1 12.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 4.5 4.1 1.0 0.1 10.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.6 3.9 0.9 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.6 0.9 0.0 7.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.5 1.0 0.0 5.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.9 0.8 0.0 4.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 2.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.7 4.3 6.4 9.5 11.1 12.3 13.4 12.4 10.1 7.4 4.4 2.6 0.9 0.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
17-3 95.6% 2.5    2.2 0.3 0.0
16-4 82.3% 3.7    2.7 0.9 0.1
15-5 59.5% 4.4    2.6 1.5 0.3 0.0
14-6 29.7% 3.0    1.1 1.3 0.5 0.1
13-7 9.3% 1.2    0.2 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-8 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 15.8% 15.8 9.7 4.4 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.1% 64.3% 64.3% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.9% 63.1% 63.1% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3
17-3 2.6% 47.4% 47.4% 14.7 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 1.4
16-4 4.4% 39.1% 39.1% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.8 2.7
15-5 7.4% 36.0% 36.0% 15.6 0.1 0.9 1.7 4.7
14-6 10.1% 27.5% 27.5% 15.8 0.0 0.5 2.3 7.3
13-7 12.4% 19.2% 19.2% 15.9 0.0 0.3 2.1 10.0
12-8 13.4% 12.8% 12.8% 16.0 0.1 1.6 11.7
11-9 12.3% 7.4% 7.4% 16.0 0.0 0.9 11.4
10-10 11.1% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.0 0.6 10.6
9-11 9.5% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.3 9.2
8-12 6.4% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 6.3
7-13 4.3% 4.3
6-14 2.7% 2.7
5-15 1.4% 1.4
4-16 0.7% 0.7
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 15.0% 15.0% 0.0% 15.6 0.1 0.2 1.0 3.2 10.5 85.0 0.0%