Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.8#285
Expected Predictive Rating-4.9#247
Pace68.0#210
Improvement-0.2#191

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#217
First Shot-4.8#315
After Offensive Rebound+3.2#25
Layup/Dunks-2.1#265
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#35
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#226
Freethrows-4.0#354
Improvement+0.5#138

Defense
Total Defense-5.1#327
First Shot-6.0#350
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#104
Layups/Dunks-2.0#252
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#173
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#322
Freethrows-0.5#222
Improvement-0.7#239
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.6% 5.0% 3.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.4 15.7
.500 or above 28.8% 47.1% 22.7%
.500 or above in Conference 35.5% 45.1% 32.3%
Conference Champion 3.2% 4.9% 2.6%
Last Place in Conference 17.9% 13.3% 19.4%
First Four1.4% 1.3% 1.5%
First Round2.9% 4.4% 2.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Utah (Away) - 24.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 32 - 62 - 7
Quad 411 - 912 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2024 94   @ Stanford L 64-90 8%     0 - 1 -17.0 +3.4 -24.1
  Nov 14, 2024 277   @ Pacific W 60-57 37%     1 - 1 -0.3 -9.2 +9.1
  Nov 22, 2024 304   Incarnate Word W 75-74 65%     2 - 1 -9.7 -0.5 -9.1
  Nov 26, 2024 317   Eastern Michigan L 68-72 58%     2 - 2 -12.8 -8.4 -4.5
  Nov 27, 2024 349   @ Houston Christian W 74-71 59%     3 - 2 -6.2 +1.9 -7.8
  Dec 04, 2024 294   @ Oral Roberts L 76-83 40%     3 - 3 -11.1 +1.2 -12.4
  Dec 07, 2024 235   South Dakota W 95-82 51%     4 - 3 +5.9 +6.2 -1.2
  Dec 14, 2024 237   @ Pepperdine L 76-86 29%     4 - 4 -11.1 +2.2 -13.3
  Dec 21, 2024 218   @ Southern Utah L 72-79 25%    
  Jan 02, 2025 251   Idaho St. W 69-68 55%    
  Jan 04, 2025 208   Weber St. L 71-73 45%    
  Jan 09, 2025 215   @ Montana L 73-80 25%    
  Jan 11, 2025 141   @ Montana St. L 69-80 16%    
  Jan 16, 2025 335   Sacramento St. W 71-64 73%    
  Jan 18, 2025 260   Portland St. W 78-76 56%    
  Jan 23, 2025 254   @ Eastern Washington L 75-80 34%    
  Jan 25, 2025 279   @ Idaho L 72-75 38%    
  Feb 01, 2025 197   @ Northern Colorado L 74-82 23%    
  Feb 03, 2025 208   @ Weber St. L 68-76 25%    
  Feb 06, 2025 141   Montana St. L 72-77 34%    
  Feb 08, 2025 215   Montana L 76-77 46%    
  Feb 13, 2025 260   @ Portland St. L 75-79 35%    
  Feb 15, 2025 335   @ Sacramento St. W 68-67 53%    
  Feb 20, 2025 279   Idaho W 75-72 60%    
  Feb 22, 2025 254   Eastern Washington W 78-77 55%    
  Mar 01, 2025 197   Northern Colorado L 77-79 42%    
  Mar 03, 2025 251   @ Idaho St. L 66-71 34%    
Projected Record 12 - 15 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 5.1 2nd
3rd 0.4 2.2 3.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 7.2 3rd
4th 0.3 2.5 4.3 1.6 0.1 8.8 4th
5th 0.2 2.5 5.6 2.1 0.2 10.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.5 5.9 2.9 0.3 0.0 11.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.5 6.3 3.7 0.4 0.0 13.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.0 6.1 4.2 0.6 0.0 14.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.6 5.4 3.5 0.7 0.0 14.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.2 3.4 1.6 0.3 0.0 11.1 10th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.0 4.4 7.5 10.3 12.5 13.9 13.1 11.8 9.2 6.6 4.0 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 96.8% 0.1    0.1
15-3 92.3% 0.5    0.4 0.1 0.0
14-4 76.8% 0.8    0.6 0.2 0.0
13-5 43.4% 1.0    0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 14.4% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 2.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.2% 3.2 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 23.8% 23.8% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.5% 21.5% 21.5% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4
14-4 1.1% 18.7% 18.7% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9
13-5 2.2% 16.3% 16.3% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.9
12-6 4.0% 10.9% 10.9% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 3.5
11-7 6.6% 8.3% 8.3% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 6.0
10-8 9.2% 6.8% 6.8% 15.9 0.1 0.5 8.6
9-9 11.8% 4.1% 4.1% 15.9 0.1 0.4 11.3
8-10 13.1% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3 12.8
7-11 13.9% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 13.7
6-12 12.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 12.4
5-13 10.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 10.2
4-14 7.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 7.4
3-15 4.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.4
2-16 2.0% 2.0
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.1% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1
Total 100% 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.5 96.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%