Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.4 #315
Expected Predictive Rating -11.0 #332
Pace 63.7 #316
Improvement -5.1 #353

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #272 C F C- F C-
Defense #338 D- D+ C- B+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #144 1.12 #213 -0.1 #181
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #92 0.69 #282 +0.8 #126
Three Pointers 35% #299 1.08 #91 -1.7 #240
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #212 -0.9 #212
Freethrows 14.7 #305 64% #359 9.5 #345
Second Chance 24.4% #329 0.95 #298 0.23 #337
Turnovers 17.2% #232
Total Offense -3.5 #272

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #129 1.17 #188 -1.3 #226
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #307 0.78 #212 +1.4 #85
Three Pointers 43% #113 1.17 #346 -4.5 #335
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #312 -4.4 #312
Freethrows 14.3 #40 73% #218 10.5 #51
Second Chance 33.3% #292 1.08 #241 0.36 #281
Turnovers 15.9% #214
Total Defense -5.9 #338

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.9% #250 1.4% #304
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.9% #194 7.1% #309
Possession Length 18.9 #322 17.3 #183
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #314 0.16 #127
Improvement +0.0 #180 -5.1 #360

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 85.9% 74.9% 91.5%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Colorado (Home) - 33.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 111 - 14
Quad 46 - 97 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 158 Drake L 71 - 77 19% -0  0 - 1 -6 -1 C- F A+ -5 D- A+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 2 @Arizona L 49 - 84 0% -24  0 - 2 -9 -11 D F F +3 C+ C A+
 Mon, Nov 24 281 Cal Poly W 93 - 87 51% +0  1 - 2 -4 +4 B+ C C -9 F B+ C
 Wed, Nov 26 245 Southeast Missouri St. W 79 - 72 43% +7  2 - 2 -1 +5 D+ A+ B- -5 B- C F
 Wed, Dec 3 170 South Dakota St. L 62 - 75 30% -6  2 - 3 -17 -12 F F F -5 A- D C-
 Sat, Dec 6 147 @North Dakota St. L 68 - 69 11% -1  2 - 4 +3 -4 C D- C +7 B+ B- A+
 Tue, Dec 9 88 @Arizona St. L 48 - 73 5% -12  2 - 5 -16 -19 F F C +1 C B A+
 Sat, Dec 13 209 @San Diego L 69 - 78 19% -6  2 - 6 -9 -1 B- D+ F -9 F F A-
 Thu, Dec 18 284 Southern Utah W 65 - 57 52% +0  3 - 6 -2 -6 F D+ B +4 C A+ A-
 Sun, Dec 21 223 @Incarnate Word L 66 - 90 20% -10  3 - 7 -25 -5 A- F F -21 F F F
 Thu, Jan 1 161 @Montana L 64 - 78 13% -4  3 - 8 0 - 1 -11 -3 D+ C F -9 F B+ C+
 Sat, Jan 3 152 @Montana St. L 68 - 77 12% -7  3 - 9 0 - 2 -5 +5 A F A- -11 F D- D-
 Thu, Jan 8 217 Weber St. L 65 - 78 38% -5  3 - 10 0 - 3 -19 -4 F D+ A- -17 D- F F
 Sat, Jan 10 219 Idaho St. L 79 - 81 39% -2  3 - 11 0 - 4 -8 +8 D+ A+ D+ -17 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 15 290 @Sacramento St. L 69 - 83 31% -1  3 - 12 0 - 5 -18 -3 C F F -17 F F F
 Sat, Jan 17 153 @Portland St. L 52 - 63 12% -5  3 - 13 0 - 6 -7 -9 C F F -0 B- D C
 Mon, Jan 19 161 Montana L 72 - 98 27% -12  3 - 14 0 - 7 -29 +7 A+ F A- -40 F F F
 Sat, Jan 24 185 Northern Colorado L 72 - 77 34%
 Thu, Jan 29 243 Eastern Washington L 74 - 76 42%
 Sat, Jan 31 183 Idaho L 69 - 74 33%
 Thu, Feb 5 219 @Idaho St. L 67 - 76 20%
 Sat, Feb 7 217 @Weber St. L 70 - 79 20%
 Thu, Feb 12 153 Portland St. L 66 - 73 26%
 Sat, Feb 14 290 Sacramento St. W 78 - 77 54%
 Sat, Feb 21 185 @Northern Colorado L 69 - 80 16%
 Thu, Feb 26 183 @Idaho L 66 - 77 16%
 Sat, Feb 28 243 @Eastern Washington L 71 - 79 24%
 Mon, Mar 2 152 Montana St. L 67 - 74 25%
Totals 6 - 22 3 - 15 -9 -4 C F C- -6 D- D+ C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.1 0.9 0.1 2.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.3 2.6 0.5 0.0 5.7 8th
9th 0.3 2.2 6.4 5.9 1.6 0.1 16.4 9th
10th 4.0 13.0 21.4 20.7 12.2 2.9 0.2 74.3 10th
Total 4.0 13.0 21.7 22.9 18.9 11.2 5.6 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9 0.1% 12.5% 12.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1
8-10 0.6% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.6
7-11 2.0% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 2.0
6-12 5.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 5.6
5-13 11.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 11.1
4-14 18.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 18.9
3-15 22.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 22.8
2-16 21.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 21.6
1-17 13.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.0
0-18 4.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.0
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.9%