Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.7#263
Expected Predictive Rating-3.8#225
Pace66.6#260
Improvement-0.2#207

Offense
Total Offense-2.4#233
First Shot-3.9#286
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#96
Layup/Dunks+2.0#116
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#90
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#290
Freethrows-4.0#344
Improvement+0.2#160

Defense
Total Defense-3.3#282
First Shot-3.5#298
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#185
Layups/Dunks-3.7#306
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#14
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#302
Freethrows+0.8#136
Improvement-0.4#229
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.1% 5.5% 2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.9 15.3
.500 or above 16.0% 31.0% 12.3%
.500 or above in Conference 27.6% 38.7% 24.9%
Conference Champion 3.1% 4.7% 2.6%
Last Place in Conference 28.9% 19.7% 31.2%
First Four0.8% 0.8% 0.9%
First Round2.7% 5.0% 2.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota St. (Away) - 19.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 93 - 13
Quad 48 - 611 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 128 Drake L 71-77 22%     0 - 1 -3.5 +0.7 -4.3
  Tue, Nov 11 9 @Arizona L 49-84 1%     0 - 2 -12.7 -13.8 +1.7
  Mon, Nov 24 243 Cal Poly W 93-87 57%     1 - 2 -1.6 +5.9 -8.1
  Wed, Nov 26 233 Southeast Missouri St. W 79-72 56%     2 - 2 -0.2 +4.1 -4.3
  Wed, Dec 3 147 South Dakota St. L 62-75 37%     2 - 3 -15.3 -8.5 -7.2
  Sat, Dec 6 149 @North Dakota St. L 67-76 20%    
  Tue, Dec 9 82 @Arizona St. L 67-83 7%    
  Sat, Dec 13 262 @San Diego L 75-78 39%    
  Thu, Dec 18 320 Southern Utah W 76-70 72%    
  Sat, Dec 20 171 @Incarnate Word L 67-75 25%    
  Thu, Jan 1 197 @Montana L 73-79 28%    
  Sat, Jan 3 152 @Montana St. L 66-75 21%    
  Thu, Jan 8 192 Weber St. L 74-75 49%    
  Sat, Jan 10 167 Idaho St. L 67-69 44%    
  Thu, Jan 15 274 @Sacramento St. L 74-77 41%    
  Sat, Jan 17 156 @Portland St. L 68-77 22%    
  Mon, Jan 19 197 Montana L 76-77 49%    
  Sat, Jan 24 151 Northern Colorado L 72-75 39%    
  Thu, Jan 29 251 Eastern Washington W 77-75 58%    
  Sat, Jan 31 187 Idaho L 72-73 48%    
  Thu, Feb 5 167 @Idaho St. L 64-72 24%    
  Sat, Feb 7 192 @Weber St. L 71-78 29%    
  Thu, Feb 12 156 Portland St. L 71-74 41%    
  Sat, Feb 14 274 Sacramento St. W 77-74 62%    
  Sat, Feb 21 151 @Northern Colorado L 69-78 22%    
  Thu, Feb 26 187 @Idaho L 69-76 28%    
  Sat, Feb 28 251 @Eastern Washington L 74-78 38%    
  Mon, Mar 2 152 Montana St. L 69-72 40%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 4.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.9 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.4 3.2 0.9 0.1 6.9 4th
5th 0.2 2.3 4.0 1.4 0.1 8.0 5th
6th 0.1 2.2 5.3 2.4 0.1 10.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.7 3.4 0.3 11.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.9 6.1 3.9 0.5 0.0 13.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.2 5.9 4.1 0.7 0.0 16.4 9th
10th 0.4 1.7 3.8 5.8 5.2 2.8 0.6 0.0 20.2 10th
Total 0.4 1.7 4.0 7.1 9.9 11.8 13.2 12.6 11.8 9.3 7.0 4.9 3.2 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 98.0% 0.3    0.3 0.1
14-4 81.0% 0.7    0.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 51.3% 1.0    0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 21.8% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 3.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.1% 3.1 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 44.9% 44.9% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.3% 19.0% 19.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-4 0.8% 17.8% 17.8% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
13-5 1.9% 16.3% 16.3% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.6
12-6 3.2% 11.3% 11.3% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 2.8
11-7 4.9% 10.5% 10.5% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 4.3
10-8 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 6.5
9-9 9.3% 5.7% 5.7% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 8.8
8-10 11.8% 2.4% 2.4% 15.9 0.0 0.3 11.5
7-11 12.6% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 12.5
6-12 13.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 13.1
5-13 11.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 11.7
4-14 9.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.9
3-15 7.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.1
2-16 4.0% 4.0
1-17 1.7% 1.7
0-18 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.3 96.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%