Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.3#250
Expected Predictive Rating-4.7#246
Pace68.8#164
Improvement+0.9#148

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#235
First Shot-5.5#322
After Offensive Rebound+3.2#24
Layup/Dunks-3.1#292
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#26
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#226
Freethrows-4.3#359
Improvement-0.9#236

Defense
Total Defense-3.0#262
First Shot-4.4#309
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#66
Layups/Dunks-0.7#197
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#281
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#275
Freethrows-0.6#229
Improvement+1.8#90
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.7% 6.0% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 38.4% 54.6% 24.2%
.500 or above in Conference 33.5% 49.3% 19.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.6% 1.2% 5.7%
First Four2.2% 2.2% 2.1%
First Round3.6% 4.9% 2.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Montana St. (Home) - 46.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 62 - 8
Quad 411 - 714 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2024 78   @ Stanford L 64-90 9%     0 - 1 -16.1 +4.2 -24.0
  Nov 14, 2024 302   @ Pacific W 60-57 51%     1 - 1 -2.5 -12.3 +9.9
  Nov 22, 2024 291   Incarnate Word W 75-74 66%     2 - 1 -8.6 +0.2 -8.7
  Nov 26, 2024 300   Eastern Michigan L 68-72 60%     2 - 2 -11.7 -8.8 -3.0
  Nov 27, 2024 290   @ Houston Christian W 74-71 47%     3 - 2 -1.6 +4.6 -5.9
  Dec 04, 2024 315   @ Oral Roberts L 76-83 55%     3 - 3 -13.5 -1.9 -11.8
  Dec 07, 2024 262   South Dakota W 95-82 61%     4 - 3 +4.8 +5.5 -1.7
  Dec 14, 2024 217   @ Pepperdine L 76-86 33%     4 - 4 -10.7 +2.8 -13.4
  Dec 21, 2024 268   @ Southern Utah W 83-75 43%     5 - 4 +4.5 +7.4 -3.1
  Jan 02, 2025 234   Idaho St. L 67-72 56%     5 - 5 0 - 1 -11.7 -6.2 -5.7
  Jan 04, 2025 286   Weber St. W 80-77 65%     6 - 5 1 - 1 -6.3 +6.7 -12.8
  Jan 09, 2025 207   @ Montana L 76-81 30%     6 - 6 1 - 2 -4.8 -1.7 -2.9
  Jan 11, 2025 189   @ Montana St. L 53-58 27%     6 - 7 1 - 3 -3.9 -20.4 +16.6
  Jan 16, 2025 337   Sacramento St. W 77-53 80%     7 - 7 2 - 3 +10.0 +0.7 +9.7
  Jan 18, 2025 215   Portland St. L 69-80 51%     7 - 8 2 - 4 -16.5 -1.3 -15.9
  Jan 23, 2025 252   @ Eastern Washington W 70-61 41%     8 - 8 3 - 4 +6.2 +2.6 +4.3
  Jan 25, 2025 249   @ Idaho W 80-72 40%     9 - 8 4 - 4 +5.3 +9.2 -3.2
  Feb 01, 2025 154   @ Northern Colorado L 69-87 21%     9 - 9 4 - 5 -14.9 -3.8 -11.2
  Feb 03, 2025 286   @ Weber St. L 73-77 46%     9 - 10 4 - 6 -8.3 -5.5 -2.7
  Feb 06, 2025 189   Montana St. L 72-73 47%    
  Feb 08, 2025 207   Montana L 74-75 51%    
  Feb 13, 2025 215   @ Portland St. L 71-76 31%    
  Feb 15, 2025 337   @ Sacramento St. W 70-66 62%    
  Feb 20, 2025 249   Idaho W 75-73 61%    
  Feb 22, 2025 252   Eastern Washington W 75-72 61%    
  Mar 01, 2025 154   Northern Colorado L 76-79 39%    
  Mar 03, 2025 234   @ Idaho St. L 69-73 35%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.3 0.8 0.4 1.6 2nd
3rd 0.7 4.1 2.2 0.1 7.2 3rd
4th 0.4 5.7 4.7 0.3 11.1 4th
5th 0.1 5.1 9.1 1.2 0.0 15.4 5th
6th 0.0 2.7 12.6 3.7 0.0 19.1 6th
7th 0.0 2.0 11.6 7.3 0.1 21.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 7.3 7.0 0.6 16.2 8th
9th 0.4 2.9 3.5 0.5 7.3 9th
10th 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.9 10th
Total 0.8 4.6 13.1 22.0 26.0 19.3 10.3 3.3 0.6 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 1.7% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.6% 8.6% 8.6% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.5
11-7 3.3% 11.7% 11.7% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 3.0
10-8 10.3% 10.2% 10.2% 15.6 0.0 0.4 0.6 9.3
9-9 19.3% 6.7% 6.7% 15.8 0.2 1.1 18.0
8-10 26.0% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.0 1.1 24.9
7-11 22.0% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.4 21.6
6-12 13.1% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.3 12.7
5-13 4.6% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 4.5
4-14 0.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.8
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 15.8 0.1 0.9 3.7 95.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%