North Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.8 #147
Expected Predictive Rating +3.3 #113
Pace 65.9 #267
Improvement +0.4 #164

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #138 C C C D- D-
Defense #168 D B+ B B B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #335 1.16 #172 -4.0 #313
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #86 0.81 #102 +2.5 #64
Three Pointers 43% #143 1.02 #172 +1.2 #140
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #184 -0.3 #183
Freethrows 14.7 #304 70% #249 10.4 #311
Second Chance 33.2% #112 0.95 #294 0.32 #181
Turnovers 16.3% #164
Total Offense +0.8 #138

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #290 1.27 #311 +0.4 #160
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #122 0.77 #205 -0.7 #238
Three Pointers 43% #109 1.10 #294 -3.1 #304
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #290 -3.5 #287
Freethrows 14.1 #37 76% #302 10.7 #62
Second Chance 32.1% #253 0.80 #4 0.26 #43
Turnovers 18.6% #67
Total Defense +0.0 #168

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.2% #315 -0.9% #93
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.7% #152 8.0% #320
Possession Length 18.0 #247 17.4 #196
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #149 0.14 #67
Improvement +2.5 #55 -2.1 #300

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.5% 32.5% 28.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.7 14.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 71.9% 76.9% 55.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round31.5% 32.5% 28.1%
Second Round1.1% 1.3% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oral Roberts (Away) - 77.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 35 - 55 - 6
Quad 417 - 222 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 195 @Oregon St. L 65 - 67 50% -1  0 - 1 -1 -4 D+ F A+ +2 F A+ C
 Wed, Nov 5 181 @UC Davis L 68 - 80 47% -2  0 - 2 -10 -3 F A- C -7 F F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 207 Cal St. Northridge W 90 - 68 74% +5  1 - 2 +16 +2 F A+ B +11 A+ D+ A+
 Mon, Nov 17 146 Southern Illinois W 92 - 85 61% +4  2 - 2 +5 +12 A+ A- B -8 F B+ A
 Wed, Nov 26 216 Jacksonville St. W 56 - 43 66% +10  3 - 2 +10 -11 C- F C +22 A+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 145 @Arkansas St. L 80 - 85 OT 38% +1  3 - 3 -1 -0 D+ F D+ -0 C- A F
 Wed, Dec 3 161 @Montana W 81 - 72 42% +3  4 - 3 +12 +9 D- A+ C +3 C- B+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 315 Northern Arizona W 69 - 68 89% +1  5 - 3 -11 -12 F D- F +0 D B B-
 Thu, Dec 11 299 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 80 - 69 71% +6  6 - 3 +6 +2 F A+ D+ +3 C+ C B+
 Sat, Dec 13 158 @Drake W 99 - 94 41% +9  7 - 3 +8 +25 A+ A- A+ -17 F A+ A
 Sun, Dec 21 123 UC Irvine L 73 - 74 44% -3  7 - 4 +1 +10 A+ A+ F -9 F C+ C-
 Mon, Dec 22 256 @UTEP L 66 - 76 61% -3  7 - 5 -12 -5 C F F -7 F B- B
 Wed, Dec 31 283 South Dakota W 84 - 61 84% +10  8 - 5 1 - 0 +13 +13 B B+ A- +3 C A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 321 Oral Roberts W 79 - 77 2OT 90% -0  9 - 5 2 - 0 -11 -5 F B+ F -6 D+ C C
 Thu, Jan 8 353 @UMKC W 97 - 73 85% +18  10 - 5 3 - 0 +14 +22 A+ F A -8 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 261 @Nebraska Omaha W 78 - 76 63% -6  11 - 5 4 - 0 -1 +13 A D+ C+ -13 F F B+
 Wed, Jan 14 170 South Dakota St. W 76 - 65 68% +8  12 - 5 5 - 0 +7 +7 A+ F B +1 D A+ C
 Sat, Jan 17 131 St. Thomas W 68 - 65 58% +3  13 - 5 6 - 0 +2 -6 D F C +7 B A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 22 280 @Denver W 82 - 77 67% +5  14 - 5 7 - 0 +1 +7 B D- C+ -6 D B D
 Sat, Jan 24 321 @Oral Roberts W 76 - 68 77%
 Sat, Jan 31 283 @South Dakota W 81 - 76 68%
 Thu, Feb 5 280 Denver W 84 - 74 84%
 Sat, Feb 7 261 Nebraska Omaha W 78 - 69 81%
 Sat, Feb 14 297 @North Dakota W 78 - 72 70%
 Wed, Feb 18 170 @South Dakota St. L 74 - 75 45%
 Sat, Feb 21 353 UMKC W 82 - 65 94%
 Thu, Feb 26 131 @St. Thomas L 72 - 76 36%
 Sat, Feb 28 297 North Dakota W 81 - 69 87%
Totals 20 - 8 13 - 3 +1 +1 C C C +0 D B+ B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 5.6 18.3 25.4 17.1 4.8 71.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.3 9.6 8.4 2.1 25.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 1.2 0.3 2.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.8 6.2 15.5 26.7 27.5 17.1 4.8 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 4.8    4.8
15-1 100.0% 17.1    16.3 0.8
14-2 92.5% 25.4    19.6 5.9
13-3 68.5% 18.3    10.2 7.8 0.3
12-4 35.9% 5.6    1.9 3.0 0.7 0.0
11-5 11.0% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1
10-6 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 71.9% 71.9 52.8 17.8 1.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 4.8% 44.1% 44.1% 12.4 0.1 1.1 0.9 0.1 2.7
15-1 17.1% 39.2% 39.2% 13.3 0.0 0.7 3.5 2.4 0.2 10.4
14-2 27.5% 34.6% 34.6% 13.7 0.2 3.2 5.1 1.0 0.0 18.0
13-3 26.7% 29.9% 29.9% 14.1 0.0 1.4 4.7 1.8 0.0 18.7
12-4 15.5% 23.3% 23.3% 14.3 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.5 0.0 11.9
11-5 6.2% 20.0% 20.0% 14.5 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.0 5.0
10-6 1.8% 16.3% 16.3% 14.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.5
9-7 0.3% 10.8% 10.8% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
8-8 0.1% 0.0 0.1
7-9 0.0% 0.0
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 31.5% 31.5% 0.0% 13.7 68.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.1% 100.0% 12.4 4.7 50.4 40.2 4.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0%