North Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.8 146
Expected Predictive Rating +2.8 117
Pace 65.5 264
Improvement -0.3 193

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ #123 C C C+ D+ D
Defense C #202 D B B B- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 323 59% 160 -3.1 288
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 96 39% 145 +1.8 83
Three Pointers 43% 152 35% 118 +1.8 115
1st FG Attempt 1.03 159 +0.5 158
Second Chance 32.4% 124 0.97 264 0.32 165
Turnovers 16.6% 156
Freethrows 0.27 295 71% 217 0.19 292
Total Offense +1.7 123

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 280 65% 336 -0.5 195
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 187 40% 259 -0.4 220
Three Pointers 44% 78 37% 311 -3.7 326
1st FG Attempt 1.11 320 -4.6 318
Second Chance 30.7% 188 0.87 18 0.27 62
Turnovers 19.1% 63
Freethrows 0.25 37 76% 344 0.19 70
Total Defense -0.8 202

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.9 300 -0.2 127
Shot Type Accuracy +1.4 123 +4.7 339
Possession Length 18.2 263 17.4 196
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 187 0.14 75
Improvement +3.4 #40 -3.7 #335

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32% 33% 28%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.1
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 73% 82% 52%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round32% 33% 28%
Second Round1% 1% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: North Dakota (Away) - 69.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 36 - 47 - 6
Quad 415 - 322 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 178 @Oregon St. L 65 - 67 46% -1  26% 0 - 1 C -0 D -5 C- F+ A- B +5 D- A+ C+
 Wed, Nov 5 180 @UC Davis L 68 - 80 47% -2  43% 0 - 2 D -10 D -5 F B+ B- D+ -5 F F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 186 Cal St. Northridge W 90 - 68 70% +5  68% 1 - 2 A- +17 C +0 F A+ B+ A+ +14 A+ D A+
 Mon, Nov 17 127 Southern Illinois W 92 - 85 57% +4  79% 2 - 2 B- +6 A +11 A B+ A- D -6 F C+ A-
 Wed, Nov 26 184 Jacksonville St. W 56 - 43 59% +10  79% 3 - 2 B+ +11 F -11 C F C+ A+ +25 A+ A A+
 Fri, Nov 28 141 @Arkansas St. L 80 - 85 OT 37% +1  40% 3 - 3 C -1 D+ -2 C- F+ C C+ +2 C B+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 170 @Montana W 81 - 72 44% +3  75% 4 - 3 B+ +11 B+ +8 D A+ B- B- +3 D+ B C
 Sat, Dec 6 311 Northern Arizona W 69 - 68 88% +1  65% 5 - 3 D -11 F -16 F D F B +5 C- B B-
 Thu, Dec 11 322 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 80 - 69 78% +6  78% 6 - 3 C+ +4 C- -2 F A+ D+ B +5 C+ C- B
 Sat, Dec 13 177 @Drake W 99 - 94 46% +9  94% 7 - 3 B- +7 A+ +20 A+ B+ A+ F -13 F A+ A-
 Sun, Dec 21 119 UC Irvine L 73 - 74 42% -3  15% 7 - 4 C+ +2 B+ +8 B+ A+ F D -6 F C C
 Mon, Dec 22 239 @UTEP L 66 - 76 59% -3  23% 7 - 5 D- -11 D- -6 C+ F F D+ -5 F C B
 Wed, Dec 31 281 South Dakota W 84 - 61 84% +10  58% 8 - 5 1 - 0 B+ +13 A +11 B- A- A- B +4 C- A- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 337 Oral Roberts W 79 - 77 2OT 91% -0  47% 9 - 5 2 - 0 D- -12 F+ -8 F B+ F D+ -4 D+ C- C+
 Thu, Jan 8 357 @UMKC W 97 - 73 88% +18  99% 10 - 5 3 - 0 B+ +12 A+ +21 A+ F+ A- D- -8 F B+ A
 Sat, Jan 10 249 @Nebraska Omaha W 78 - 76 61% -6  8% 11 - 5 4 - 0 C +0 A- +11 A- C- C+ F+ -11 F+ F B
 Wed, Jan 14 193 South Dakota St. W 76 - 65 72% +8  96% 12 - 5 5 - 0 B- +6 B- +4 A+ F B- B- +3 D A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 123 St. Thomas W 68 - 65 55% +3  74% 13 - 5 6 - 0 C+ +2 F+ -8 D+ F C- A +11 B- A A+
 Thu, Jan 22 257 @Denver W 82 - 77 63% +5  80% 14 - 5 7 - 0 C+ +3 B +6 B D+ C+ C- -3 D B- D
 Sat, Jan 24 337 @Oral Roberts W 86 - 58 81% +19  95% 15 - 5 8 - 0 A +20 A+ +18 A B- A B +5 D- C+ A-
 Sat, Jan 31 281 @South Dakota W 89 - 84 OT 68% +7  90% 16 - 5 9 - 0 C +1 B +6 A- D F+ D+ -5 F C+ D
 Thu, Feb 5 257 Denver L 71 - 78 81% -5  7% 16 - 6 9 - 1 F+ -15 F -15 F D D+ C -0 C- B C-
 Sat, Feb 7 249 Nebraska Omaha W 92 - 84 80% +8  85% 17 - 6 10 - 1 C +0 A+ +16 A C+ A+ F -15 F C- C-
 Sat, Feb 14 288 @North Dakota W 78 - 73 70%
 Wed, Feb 18 193 @South Dakota St. W 75 - 74 50%
 Sat, Feb 21 357 UMKC W 82 - 63 96%
 Thu, Feb 26 123 @St. Thomas L 73 - 78 32%
 Sat, Feb 28 288 North Dakota W 81 - 70 85%
Totals 20 - 8 13 - 3 +1 C+ +2 C C C+ C -1 D B B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C C+ C+ C+ 33% 25% 43% D C C+ D+ C C+ D C- D+ C D- C- D D- 35% 20% 44% C+ D C A- B B B D- B-
1.11 59% 39% 35% +1 -1 1.03 32% 1.0 .32 17% .27 71% .19 1.10 65% 40% 37% +5 0 1.11 31% 0.9 .27 19% .25 76% .20
Nov
3		 Oregon St. D C+ A+ F D+ 44% 15% 41% C+ C- D+ F F+ A- F F F B D+ F D+ F+ 29% 17% 54% C+ D- A+ A+ A+ C+ F B F
0.99 58% 50% 23% -5 +1 0.94 28% 0.7 .21 11% .19 64% .12 1.02 58% 57% 36% +5 0 1.12 17% 0.6 .10 18% .48 73% .35
Nov
5		 UC Davis D C- D+ F F 46% 17% 37% C+ F A+ D- B+ B- F A+ C- D+ F+ A F F 58% 9% 33% F F F B+ F A+ C+ B+ B-
0.99 56% 33% 10% -15 +1 0.74 47% 0.9 .40 17% .25 93% .23 1.16 69% 25% 47% +12 +3 1.31 44% 0.9 .40 26% .33 71% .24
Nov
11		 Cal St. Northridge C C- B+ F F 30% 18% 52% C- F A+ A- A+ B+ A- C+ A- A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 50% 23% 27% B- A+ C+ F D A+ B D B-
1.12 56% 45% 22% -9 0 0.84 39% 1.4 .54 12% .37 77% .28 0.84 54% 23% 20% -11 +1 0.80 31% 1.2 .36 25% .26 69% .18
Nov
17		 Southern Illinois A F A- A+ A+ 25% 25% 50% D- A C A+ B+ A- C- A+ B D F F A+ F 45% 29% 25% C- F F A+ C+ A- A+ F B+
1.19 40% 47% 47% +7 -2 1.13 28% 1.4 .39 15% .29 84% .24 1.10 72% 69% 21% +11 -1 1.22 37% 0.7 .27 21% .21 77% .16
Nov
26		 Jacksonville St. F A F A+ B- 23% 34% 43% F C D- F F C+ C+ F F+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ 29% 29% 43% A+ A+ C+ A+ A A+ F A+ D+
0.90 70% 20% 42% +2 -3 1.00 23% 0.4 .09 16% .33 59% .19 0.69 42% 17% 22% -18 -2 0.62 29% 0.6 .17 24% .49 57% .28
Nov
28		 Arkansas St. D+ F C A+ C- 34% 23% 43% C- C- C- F F+ C A+ F+ A- C+ B- A+ D+ C 37% 10% 53% D+ C A+ D+ B+ F C F F+
1.02 42% 38% 42% 0 -1 1.00 24% 0.7 .18 15% .47 65% .30 1.08 55% 17% 35% -2 +1 1.00 29% 1.1 .31 14% .33 91% .30
Dec
3		 Montana B+ C A+ F D+ 28% 34% 38% F D B+ A+ A+ B- A- A+ A+ B- D+ F D+ F+ 22% 35% 43% A+ D+ D+ A+ B C A- A+ A+
1.16 60% 56% 15% -4 -2 0.89 36% 1.5 .53 14% .37 91% .33 1.03 64% 56% 36% +9 -3 1.14 26% 0.8 .19 20% .23 62% .14
Dec
6		 Northern Arizona F F+ B- D- F+ 27% 37% 37% F F B+ F D F B F C- B F B+ F+ D 34% 38% 28% A+ C- C- A B B- A+ F A
0.98 50% 42% 32% -2 -3 0.92 40% 0.7 .29 23% .33 61% .20 0.96 72% 30% 40% +4 -3 1.06 24% 0.8 .18 18% .14 75% .10
Dec
11		 Cal St. Bakersfield C- F F F F 43% 17% 40% C+ F A A+ A+ D+ A+ C- A+ B D A B+ C 35% 38% 27% B C+ D C+ C- B C- F D
1.09 45% 25% 21% -16 +1 0.72 49% 1.3 .65 19% .62 70% .44 0.94 61% 25% 29% -6 -3 0.85 36% 0.9 .33 22% .37 81% .30
Dec
13		 Drake A+ C- D A+ A+ 21% 23% 55% D A+ F A+ B+ A+ B- D C F F A F F 27% 20% 53% C+ F B A+ A+ A- F F F
1.37 58% 31% 55% +16 -2 1.30 18% 2.0 .36 7% .33 64% .21 1.30 77% 30% 54% +19 -1 1.39 22% 0.3 .07 18% .49 90% .44
Dec
21		 UC Irvine B+ C- D A+ A- 31% 27% 42% D+ B+ A+ A- A+ F A+ F C- D F D C F 46% 24% 30% D F D+ B- C C C+ A- B
1.11 50% 33% 42% +1 -1 1.02 51% 1.1 .54 29% .36 47% .17 1.12 70% 42% 33% +6 0 1.14 33% 1.0 .33 17% .29 63% .18
Dec
22		 UTEP D- B- A+ F C+ 36% 32% 32% D C+ F F F F B- C- C+ D+ D F F F 22% 40% 38% A F F+ A C B F F F
0.97 63% 71% 14% +3 -2 1.05 22% 0.8 .19 24% .40 71% .29 1.12 64% 45% 42% +9 -4 1.12 32% 0.8 .26 19% .38 76% .29
Dec
31		 South Dakota A A+ A+ F B+ 40% 19% 40% D- B- A- C A- A- B- F C- B A+ F F D 25% 30% 45% A+ C- C A+ A- A+ B F C
1.32 76% 70% 24% +7 0 1.17 41% 1.3 .52 13% .31 65% .20 0.96 36% 46% 40% +1 -2 1.00 28% 0.7 .19 24% .31 87% .27
Jan
3		 Oral Roberts F+ F+ F D- F 39% 24% 37% D- F A+ F B+ F A+ F A+ D+ C- A C- D 31% 12% 57% C D+ F+ B+ C- C+ A F B
1.05 48% 31% 30% -8 0 0.85 52% 0.9 .45 21% .53 61% .32 1.03 56% 29% 33% -2 +1 0.98 33% 0.8 .28 19% .21 85% .18
Jan
8		 UMKC A+ A A+ A+ A+ 34% 19% 47% D+ A+ A- F F+ A- B B B+ D- F F F F 39% 22% 39% D- F F A+ B+ A D- B D
1.42 72% 50% 52% +20 0 1.42 44% 0.6 .26 13% .32 74% .24 1.06 67% 60% 39% +11 0 1.24 38% 0.4 .16 25% .33 65% .21
Jan
10		 Nebraska Omaha A- A+ A+ D A 38% 16% 46% C A- F A+ C- C+ F A+ D- F+ F A+ F F 40% 17% 43% D F+ F C F B C+ F D-
1.26 79% 63% 30% +9 +1 1.22 20% 1.4 .28 13% .20 91% .19 1.23 74% 13% 40% +6 +1 1.15 38% 1.1 .42 19% .28 93% .26
Jan
14		 South Dakota St. B- C B A+ A+ 24% 22% 55% D A+ F+ F F B- F A D- B- F A+ D+ D- 33% 16% 51% C+ D A A+ A+ C+ B+ B- B+
1.17 58% 45% 50% +15 -1 1.29 20% 0.5 .10 14% .22 83% .18 1.00 75% 25% 36% +5 0 1.12 22% 0.3 .06 17% .22 67% .15
Jan
17		 St. Thomas F+ A+ F B C- 30% 30% 41% F D+ B+ F F C- C F D+ A B- F C+ B 31% 6% 63% C+ B- C A+ A A+ C A- C+
0.98 75% 13% 36% -1 -2 0.96 36% 0.6 .21 19% .27 67% .18 0.93 60% 67% 33% +2 +1 1.08 19% 0.3 .06 22% .31 65% .20
Jan
22		 Denver B B+ D+ A+ B+ 37% 18% 45% D+ B D+ C- D+ C+ D- B D+ C- B- B- F D 33% 19% 47% D- D A- D B- D A+ C+ A+
1.26 68% 33% 43% +10 0 1.22 32% 1.1 .35 12% .26 73% .19 1.18 53% 36% 44% +5 0 1.12 24% 1.3 .29 12% .07 75% .05
Jan
24		 Oral Roberts A+ B+ A A+ A 53% 8% 40% B+ A C- A- B- A F A+ F B D+ C D+ F+ 40% 17% 43% C D- B- C- C+ A- A+ B+ A+
1.38 64% 50% 43% +10 +3 1.26 31% 1.3 .41 10% .16 89% .14 0.93 58% 38% 35% +1 +1 1.04 23% 1.0 .23 22% .19 67% .12
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 South Dakota B C+ C+ A+ A- 50% 13% 38% C A- C- D- D F+ F A F+ D+ F+ F C F 35% 13% 52% C- F A+ F C+ D C- F D-
1.20 61% 43% 48% +10 +2 1.25 31% 1.1 .34 20% .19 82% .15 1.13 67% 57% 33% +5 +1 1.13 19% 1.3 .26 15% .36 87% .32
Feb
5		 Denver F D F F F 42% 23% 35% D F F A- D D+ B C- B- C D+ F A C 35% 22% 43% D C- A+ F B C- C- F D
1.00 55% 17% 28% -10 0 0.83 25% 1.3 .33 14% .36 68% .25 1.10 61% 64% 27% +2 0 1.06 18% 1.6 .29 14% .31 84% .26
Feb
7		 Nebraska Omaha A+ B B A+ A+ 34% 26% 40% D- A B- C C+ A+ B A+ A+ F F B F F 31% 12% 57% D F B- F C- C- A D B+
1.37 67% 43% 48% +12 -1 1.25 32% 1.0 .32 7% .35 91% .32 1.25 69% 33% 48% +15 +1 1.33 23% 1.3 .30 16% .21 75% .16



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 3.9 24.8 33.9 10.6 73.2 1st
2nd 0.7 12.2 11.6 24.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 0.5 2.4 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.1 2.5 16.6 36.4 33.9 10.6 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 10.6    10.6
14-2 100.0% 33.9    26.4 7.5
13-3 68.2% 24.8    10.3 14.4 0.0
12-4 23.4% 3.9    0.6 2.6 0.7
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7
8-8
Total 73.2% 73.2 47.9 24.5 0.8



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 10.6% 42.4% 42.4% 13.0 0.0 0.9 2.8 0.8 0.0 6.1
14-2 33.9% 35.7% 35.7% 13.7 0.2 4.3 6.5 1.0 21.8
13-3 36.4% 29.9% 29.9% 14.1 0.0 2.1 6.1 2.7 0.1 25.5
12-4 16.6% 22.6% 22.6% 14.3 0.5 1.9 1.3 0.1 12.8
11-5 2.5% 17.9% 17.9% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.0
10-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 31.7% 31.7% 0.0% 13.8 68.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.5% 100.0% 13.0 0.2 20.2 61.8 17.1 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.4%