North Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.4#149
Expected Predictive Rating+0.9#160
Pace68.3#215
Improvement+1.9#50

Offense
Total Offense-0.8#186
First Shot-5.1#312
After Offensive Rebound+4.3#16
Layup/Dunks-3.4#299
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#127
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#226
Freethrows-1.2#242
Improvement+0.6#132

Defense
Total Defense+1.2#131
First Shot-3.4#295
After Offensive Rebounds+4.6#5
Layups/Dunks-3.0#288
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#335
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#173
Freethrows+2.1#64
Improvement+1.2#70
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.5% 30.1% 22.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.1 14.7
.500 or above 92.6% 94.7% 83.7%
.500 or above in Conference 93.6% 94.5% 89.8%
Conference Champion 38.1% 40.4% 29.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.4% 0.9%
First Four0.9% 0.8% 1.5%
First Round28.1% 29.7% 21.6%
Second Round1.4% 1.5% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Arizona (Home) - 80.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 34 - 54 - 7
Quad 415 - 319 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 163 @Oregon St. L 65-67 42%     0 - 1 +0.4 -3.0 +3.3
  Wed, Nov 5 168 @UC Davis L 68-80 44%     0 - 2 -9.9 -0.9 -9.3
  Tue, Nov 11 253 Cal St. Northridge W 90-68 79%     1 - 2 +13.8 +2.4 +8.5
  Mon, Nov 17 142 Southern Illinois W 92-85 58%     2 - 2 +5.3 +9.0 -4.4
  Wed, Nov 26 238 Jacksonville St. W 56-43 68%     3 - 2 +8.5 -8.6 +18.8
  Fri, Nov 28 155 @Arkansas St. L 80-85 OT 40%     3 - 3 -2.0 +0.2 -1.7
  Wed, Dec 3 197 @Montana W 81-72 49%     4 - 3 +9.6 +7.6 +2.1
  Sat, Dec 6 263 Northern Arizona W 76-67 80%    
  Thu, Dec 11 280 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 74-70 64%    
  Sat, Dec 13 128 @Drake L 66-71 31%    
  Sun, Dec 21 125 UC Irvine L 67-69 41%    
  Wed, Dec 31 276 South Dakota W 83-73 81%    
  Sat, Jan 3 311 Oral Roberts W 82-70 85%    
  Thu, Jan 8 339 @UMKC W 75-66 78%    
  Sat, Jan 10 252 @Nebraska Omaha W 76-73 60%    
  Wed, Jan 14 147 South Dakota St. W 73-70 60%    
  Sat, Jan 17 166 St. Thomas W 74-70 65%    
  Thu, Jan 22 291 @Denver W 78-73 66%    
  Sat, Jan 24 311 @Oral Roberts W 79-73 70%    
  Sat, Jan 31 276 @South Dakota W 80-76 63%    
  Thu, Feb 5 291 Denver W 81-70 83%    
  Sat, Feb 7 252 Nebraska Omaha W 79-70 77%    
  Sat, Feb 14 340 @North Dakota W 76-67 78%    
  Wed, Feb 18 147 @South Dakota St. L 70-73 39%    
  Sat, Feb 21 339 UMKC W 78-63 90%    
  Thu, Feb 26 166 @St. Thomas L 71-73 44%    
  Sat, Feb 28 340 North Dakota W 79-64 90%    
Projected Record 17 - 10 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.5 7.4 11.0 10.0 5.4 1.5 38.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.7 8.8 8.5 3.6 0.7 25.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.7 7.1 4.3 1.0 0.1 16.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.5 2.0 0.2 0.0 9.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.2 1.0 0.0 4.9 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.5 0.0 2.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.3 1.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 3.5 5.6 9.7 13.1 15.9 16.9 14.7 10.7 5.4 1.5 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.5    1.5
15-1 100.0% 5.4    5.3 0.1
14-2 93.9% 10.0    8.6 1.4 0.0
13-3 74.9% 11.0    7.2 3.5 0.4 0.0
12-4 43.8% 7.4    3.3 3.3 0.8 0.1
11-5 15.6% 2.5    0.5 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0
10-6 1.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 38.1% 38.1 26.4 9.6 1.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.5% 58.7% 58.7% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6
15-1 5.4% 54.7% 54.7% 13.1 0.0 0.7 1.4 0.8 0.1 2.5
14-2 10.7% 43.3% 43.3% 13.6 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.0 0.5 0.0 6.1
13-3 14.7% 36.3% 36.3% 14.1 0.1 1.1 2.7 1.4 0.1 9.4
12-4 16.9% 32.1% 32.1% 14.4 0.0 0.5 2.5 2.1 0.3 11.5
11-5 15.9% 26.0% 26.0% 14.8 0.1 1.3 2.2 0.5 11.7
10-6 13.1% 19.4% 19.4% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.6 10.6
9-7 9.7% 15.2% 15.2% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 8.2
8-8 5.6% 11.5% 11.5% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 5.0
7-9 3.5% 8.6% 8.6% 15.9 0.0 0.3 3.2
6-10 1.8% 5.9% 5.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.7
5-11 0.7% 8.3% 8.3% 16.0 0.1 0.7
4-12 0.3% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-13 0.1% 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 28.5% 28.5% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.0 9.9 8.8 3.1 71.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.6 3.3 33.3 63.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%