Cal St. Bakersfield
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.6#245
Expected Predictive Rating-3.9#232
Pace65.6#249
Improvement-0.8#227

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#187
First Shot-1.5#222
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#104
Layup/Dunks-3.9#317
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.9#5
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.5#350
Freethrows+2.1#68
Improvement+0.3#179

Defense
Total Defense-4.3#304
First Shot-4.3#310
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#184
Layups/Dunks+0.9#137
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#163
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#172
Freethrows-6.2#364
Improvement-1.1#243
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 50 - 7
Quad 33 - 83 - 15
Quad 49 - 412 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 105   @ California L 73-86 15%     0 - 1 -6.3 -0.2 -5.6
  Nov 11, 2024 143   North Dakota St. W 86-81 39%     1 - 1 +3.2 +16.1 -12.3
  Nov 16, 2024 258   Fresno St. W 74-58 63%     2 - 1 +8.0 -4.0 +11.3
  Nov 22, 2024 187   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 54-74 28%     2 - 2 -18.7 -8.2 -14.5
  Nov 23, 2024 257   Florida International L 73-76 OT 52%     2 - 3 -8.2 -0.9 -7.2
  Nov 24, 2024 209   Northeastern W 68-60 43%     3 - 3 +5.3 +2.9 +3.4
  Nov 30, 2024 304   @ Southern Utah L 64-74 54%     3 - 4 -15.5 -6.8 -9.1
  Dec 05, 2024 70   @ UC Irvine L 66-82 9%     3 - 5 0 - 1 -5.4 +2.9 -8.5
  Dec 07, 2024 47   @ UC San Diego L 60-81 5%     3 - 6 0 - 2 -6.9 -4.6 -2.5
  Dec 18, 2024 273   @ Portland W 81-64 46%     4 - 6 +13.5 +13.7 +1.8
  Dec 21, 2024 202   Portland St. L 58-59 52%     4 - 7 -6.2 -12.9 +6.7
  Dec 23, 2024 143   @ North Dakota St. L 60-94 21%     4 - 8 -30.3 -14.2 -16.9
  Jan 02, 2025 236   UC Davis W 75-64 59%     5 - 8 1 - 2 +4.2 +8.4 -3.5
  Jan 04, 2025 294   Long Beach St. W 80-65 71%     6 - 8 2 - 2 +4.6 +12.1 -5.5
  Jan 09, 2025 152   @ UC Santa Barbara L 66-78 23%     6 - 9 2 - 3 -8.9 -3.1 -6.4
  Jan 11, 2025 113   Cal St. Northridge W 94-90 31%     7 - 9 3 - 3 +4.6 +14.8 -10.4
  Jan 18, 2025 221   @ Hawaii L 70-81 35%     7 - 10 3 - 4 -11.6 -2.3 -9.3
  Jan 23, 2025 351   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 71-68 72%     8 - 10 4 - 4 -7.5 -6.6 -1.0
  Jan 25, 2025 142   UC Riverside L 79-83 39%     8 - 11 4 - 5 -5.7 +11.6 -17.7
  Jan 30, 2025 194   Cal Poly L 81-90 50%     8 - 12 4 - 6 -13.6 +0.1 -13.1
  Feb 01, 2025 113   @ Cal St. Northridge L 62-88 16%     8 - 13 4 - 7 -19.9 -11.5 -6.9
  Feb 06, 2025 152   UC Santa Barbara L 75-81 42%     8 - 14 4 - 8 -8.4 +9.5 -18.7
  Feb 08, 2025 142   @ UC Riverside L 64-69 21%     8 - 15 4 - 9 -1.2 -1.4 -0.4
  Feb 13, 2025 47   UC San Diego L 54-73 11%     8 - 16 4 - 10 -10.4 -2.1 -12.4
  Feb 15, 2025 351   Cal St. Fullerton W 91-54 86%     9 - 16 5 - 10 +21.0 +12.7 +8.2
  Feb 20, 2025 236   @ UC Davis W 71-66 38%     10 - 16 6 - 10 +3.7 +6.5 -2.4
  Feb 22, 2025 70   UC Irvine L 64-73 18%     10 - 17 6 - 11 -3.9 -2.2 -1.8
  Feb 27, 2025 294   @ Long Beach St. W 88-87 OT 51%     11 - 17 7 - 11 -3.9 +7.0 -10.9
  Mar 01, 2025 194   @ Cal Poly L 72-98 30%     11 - 18 7 - 12 -25.0 -9.1 -13.2
  Mar 06, 2025 221   Hawaii W 76-64 56%     12 - 18 8 - 12 +5.9 +8.3 -1.2
  Mar 12, 2025 152   UC Santa Barbara L 70-75 32%    
Projected Record 12 - 19 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 100.0 100.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12 100.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.1 100.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.7%
Lose Out 69.5%