Long Beach St.
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.9 #250
Expected Predictive Rating -5.1 #238
Pace 68.3 #202
Improvement +2.9 #55

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #245 C D+ C D+ F
Defense #248 C- C- C F C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #292 1.26 #76 -0.4 #193
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #29 0.73 #206 +3.4 #39
Three Pointers 35% #306 1.00 #202 -3.3 #294
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #186 -0.3 #185
Freethrows 15.5 #274 73% #185 11.3 #268
Second Chance 27.2% #278 1.02 #222 0.28 #268
Turnovers 16.5% #175
Total Offense -2.6 #245

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #137 1.26 #303 -3.1 #282
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #132 0.85 #308 -1.4 #291
Three Pointers 38% #267 0.96 #106 +2.6 #85
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #241 -1.9 #240
Freethrows 20.4 #320 76% #323 15.5 #333
Second Chance 26.5% #45 1.30 #361 0.34 #246
Turnovers 16.8% #158
Total Defense -2.3 #248

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.1% #335 0.0% #158
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.5% #138 3.7% #248
Possession Length 17.7 #209 17.0 #124
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #237 0.19 #232
Improvement -0.2 #187 +3.0 #36

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.4% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.3 15.8
.500 or above 1.7% 3.4% 0.6%
.500 or above in Conference 31.3% 47.9% 20.5%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.7% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 6.3% 2.5% 8.7%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
First Round0.7% 1.3% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Santa Barbara (Home) - 39.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 103 - 16
Quad 49 - 411 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 46 @San Diego St. L 45 - 77 5% -13  0 - 1 -18 -20 F D- F +2 A- F A+
 Sat, Nov 8 143 @Fresno St. L 62 - 82 20% -10  0 - 2 -16 -7 F D- F -8 F A- A
 Wed, Nov 12 132 @Pacific L 66 - 69 18% +3  0 - 3 +2 -4 F B+ F +5 A+ F B+
 Sun, Nov 16 90 Illinois St. L 80 - 82 22% -4  0 - 4 +1 +11 A+ C A+ -10 B- A+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 152 Montana St. L 72 - 78 41% -3  0 - 5 -8 -1 C+ F C -8 C+ F D-
 Wed, Nov 26 210 @Portland L 73 - 93 32% -11  0 - 6 -20 -1 D+ D+ D -19 F C B-
 Sun, Nov 30 209 San Diego W 76 - 72 55% -1  1 - 6 -2 +8 C+ A+ A+ -10 D- F A+
 Thu, Dec 4 144 @UC Santa Barbara L 77 - 84 OT 20% -1  1 - 7 0 - 1 -3 -1 F A+ C -1 C A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 6 109 UC San Diego L 74 - 80 29% -4  1 - 8 0 - 2 -5 +4 B F A- -9 F A+ B-
 Tue, Dec 9 238 @San Jose St. L 83 - 89 OT 36% -1  1 - 9 -7 +6 D- A D -14 F F C
 Thu, Dec 18 279 Pepperdine W 81 - 78 68% -2  2 - 9 -7 +6 A D A -13 F F A+
 Sun, Dec 21 8 @Iowa St. L 60 - 91 1% -29  2 - 10 -8 -4 D+ F A+ -2 D+ C- B
 Sat, Jan 3 281 Cal Poly W 74 - 66 68% +10  3 - 10 1 - 2 -2 -5 C D- D+ +3 A+ F F
 Thu, Jan 8 123 @UC Irvine L 64 - 74 17% -7  3 - 11 1 - 3 -5 -3 B F D+ -1 C A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 299 Cal St. Bakersfield W 81 - 75 72% +5  4 - 11 2 - 3 -5 -2 C C- F -3 F A+ C
 Thu, Jan 15 293 UC Riverside W 88 - 73 71% +10  5 - 11 3 - 3 +4 +13 A+ C B+ -8 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 17 207 @Cal St. Northridge W 87 - 80 31% +0  6 - 11 4 - 3 +7 +4 B+ F D+ +2 A+ F B-
 Thu, Jan 22 229 @Cal St. Fullerton L 61 - 71 35% -11  6 - 12 4 - 4 -11 -9 D- F F -2 F A A+
 Sat, Jan 24 144 UC Santa Barbara L 73 - 76 39%
 Thu, Jan 29 293 @UC Riverside L 72 - 73 49%
 Sat, Jan 31 106 Hawaii L 67 - 73 28%
 Thu, Feb 5 109 @UC San Diego L 67 - 79 14%
 Thu, Feb 12 229 Cal St. Fullerton W 80 - 78 57%
 Sat, Feb 14 181 @UC Davis L 72 - 78 28%
 Thu, Feb 19 123 UC Irvine L 69 - 73 34%
 Sat, Feb 21 207 Cal St. Northridge W 80 - 79 54%
 Thu, Feb 26 281 @Cal Poly L 81 - 82 46%
 Sat, Feb 28 299 @Cal St. Bakersfield L 74 - 75 50%
 Thu, Mar 5 181 UC Davis L 75 - 76 48%
 Sun, Mar 8 106 @Hawaii L 64 - 76 13%
Totals 11 - 19 9 - 11 -5 -3 C D+ C -2 C- C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.6 0.8 0.1 3.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 3.8 2.2 0.2 7.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 6.4 3.9 0.4 12.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 7.7 6.0 0.9 0.0 16.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 8.1 7.9 1.4 0.0 18.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 7.0 8.6 2.0 0.1 18.6 8th
9th 0.5 4.6 6.2 1.7 0.1 13.1 9th
10th 0.2 1.6 3.3 1.0 0.0 6.1 10th
11th 0.5 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.2 11th
Total 0.7 3.3 9.3 15.6 20.4 19.6 15.3 9.1 4.6 1.6 0.5 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 57.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 46.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 4.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.5% 11.1% 11.1% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-7 1.6% 7.0% 7.0% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.5
12-8 4.6% 3.1% 3.1% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.5
11-9 9.1% 2.1% 2.1% 15.8 0.0 0.2 8.9
10-10 15.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2 15.1
9-11 19.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 19.4
8-12 20.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 20.4
7-13 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.6
6-14 9.3% 9.3
5-15 3.3% 3.3
4-16 0.7% 0.7
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 15.5 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%