Iowa St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +20.4 #8
Expected Predictive Rating +22.9 #9
Pace 70.5 #137
Improvement -4.2 #341

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #18 A+ A B+ B- C+
Defense #7 A- B A+ A+ A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #82 1.32 #31 +5.5 #23
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #175 0.75 #183 +0.0 #177
Three Pointers 37% #265 1.28 #2 +3.0 #87
1st FG Attempt 1.19 #11 +8.5 #11
Freethrows 20.1 #51 68% #303 13.7 #115
Second Chance 40.1% #9 1.06 #163 0.42 #31
Turnovers 13.9% #44
Total Offense +9.8 #18

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% #352 1.15 #170 +5.5 #30
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #37 0.68 #66 -1.3 #286
Three Pointers 44% #87 0.89 #45 +1.1 #135
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #42 +5.3 #41
Freethrows 12.7 #15 70% #62 8.9 #12
Second Chance 27.4% #69 0.99 #108 0.27 #70
Turnovers 23.5% #2
Total Defense +10.7 #7

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.5% #155 -2.9% #19
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 15.9% #10 -7.8% #49
Possession Length 15.8 #49 18.7 #340
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #57 0.12 #45
Improvement -3.5 #341 -0.7 #231

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.6% 3.1% 0.6%
#1 Seed 15.7% 17.9% 7.5%
Top 2 Seed 40.8% 45.0% 25.1%
Top 4 Seed 86.6% 89.4% 75.9%
Top 6 Seed 98.9% 99.3% 97.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 3.0 2.8 3.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.3% 99.7% 97.8%
Conference Champion 8.5% 10.0% 2.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round95.8% 96.5% 93.3%
Sweet Sixteen66.4% 68.0% 60.4%
Elite Eight36.5% 38.1% 30.7%
Final Four18.9% 20.0% 14.6%
Championship Game9.6% 10.2% 7.2%
National Champion4.5% 5.0% 3.0%

Next Game: Oklahoma St. (Away) - 79.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 45 - 4
Quad 1b5 - 210 - 6
Quad 29 - 119 - 6
Quad 32 - 020 - 6
Quad 47 - 027 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 348 Fairleigh Dickinson W 88 - 50 100% +24  1 - 0 +23 +7 A+ F A- +15 A+ C- A+
 Thu, Nov 6 287 Grambling St. W 102 - 62 99% +16  2 - 0 +30 +19 A+ A- A+ +8 B- A- A+
 Mon, Nov 10 76 Mississippi St. W 96 - 80 88% +11  3 - 0 +24 +20 A+ A+ B+ +2 D F A+
 Mon, Nov 17 339 Stonehill W 96 - 57 100% +18  4 - 0 +25 +19 A+ C B- +5 F A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 18 St. John's W 83 - 82 62% +4  5 - 0 +18 +20 C A+ A+ -2 A D- B-
 Tue, Nov 25 44 Creighton W 78 - 60 80% +10  6 - 0 +29 +11 C+ A+ A +19 B+ A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 67 Syracuse W 95 - 64 87% +11  7 - 0 +39 +24 A+ C- A+ +15 A A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 347 Alcorn St. W 132 - 68 100% +36  8 - 0 +49 +35 A+ A+ C +5 F C A+
 Sat, Dec 6 5 @Purdue W 81 - 58 36% +9  9 - 0 +47 +23 A+ C C- +25 A+ A A+
 Thu, Dec 11 23 Iowa W 66 - 62 75% -1  10 - 0 +17 +9 C+ C A+ +9 C+ C+ A+
 Sun, Dec 14 310 Eastern Illinois W 78 - 53 99% +15  11 - 0 +13 +4 B- F C+ +9 B+ C+ A+
 Sun, Dec 21 250 Long Beach St. W 91 - 60 99% +29  12 - 0 +23 +10 A+ A- C+ +12 A+ A+ B
 Mon, Dec 29 298 Houston Christian W 89 - 61 99% +12  13 - 0 +17 +13 F A+ A- +6 C A+ A
 Fri, Jan 2 52 West Virginia W 80 - 59 88% +10  14 - 0 1 - 0 +29 +25 A+ A+ C- +7 A+ B+ A+
 Wed, Jan 7 41 @Baylor W 70 - 60 69% +3  15 - 0 2 - 0 +25 +3 D B+ D+ +23 A+ D- A+
 Sat, Jan 10 61 Oklahoma St. W 83 - 71 91% +3  16 - 0 3 - 0 +18 +8 C- A- A +9 B+ A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 13 19 @Kansas L 63 - 84 51% -15  16 - 1 3 - 1 -1 +6 A- C F -8 F A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 49 @Cincinnati L 70 - 79 74% -7  16 - 2 3 - 2 +5 +13 B- A+ B+ -9 D+ D F
 Tue, Jan 20 53 Central Florida W 87 - 57 88% +15  17 - 2 4 - 2 +38 +23 A A+ A+ +17 A+ C+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 61 @Oklahoma St. W 86 - 78 79%
 Thu, Jan 29 78 Colorado W 85 - 69 93%
 Sun, Feb 1 85 @Kansas St. W 85 - 75 83%
 Sat, Feb 7 41 Baylor W 83 - 72 86%
 Tue, Feb 10 45 @TCU W 75 - 69 72%
 Sat, Feb 14 19 Kansas W 77 - 71 72%
 Mon, Feb 16 4 Houston W 70 - 68 56%
 Sat, Feb 21 12 @BYU L 77 - 78 45%
 Tue, Feb 24 104 @Utah W 85 - 72 89%
 Sat, Feb 28 15 Texas Tech W 78 - 73 69%
 Mon, Mar 2 2 @Arizona L 75 - 81 30%
 Sat, Mar 7 88 Arizona St. W 87 - 70 94%
Totals 26 - 5 13 - 5 +20 +10 A+ A B+ +11 A- B A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 2.0 4.4 2.1 8.5 1st
2nd 0.2 3.2 9.6 4.6 0.2 17.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.8 12.8 7.7 0.6 25.1 3rd
4th 0.1 2.5 10.4 7.7 0.6 21.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 6.5 6.4 0.9 15.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.8 3.7 0.8 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 1.4 0.6 0.0 3.0 7th
8th 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.0 5.8 13.6 21.5 24.8 19.9 9.5 2.3 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 90.0% 2.1    1.5 0.6 0.0
15-3 45.8% 4.4    1.3 2.2 0.8 0.1
14-4 9.8% 2.0    0.2 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.0
13-5 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.5% 8.5 2.9 3.4 1.7 0.5 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 2.3% 100.0% 28.6% 71.4% 1.3 1.7 0.6 0.0 100.0%
15-3 9.5% 100.0% 26.3% 73.7% 1.5 5.1 3.8 0.6 0.0 100.0%
14-4 19.9% 100.0% 21.2% 78.8% 2.0 5.5 8.7 4.8 0.8 0.1 100.0%
13-5 24.8% 100.0% 15.4% 84.6% 2.7 2.8 7.9 9.3 4.2 0.5 0.0 100.0%
12-6 21.5% 100.0% 12.1% 87.9% 3.4 0.6 3.4 7.9 7.2 2.2 0.3 0.0 100.0%
11-7 13.6% 100.0% 8.6% 91.4% 4.1 0.0 0.7 3.0 5.3 3.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-8 5.8% 100.0% 6.5% 93.5% 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.8 2.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
9-9 2.0% 100.0% 4.8% 95.2% 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
8-10 0.6% 99.1% 4.3% 94.9% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.1%
7-11 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
6-12 0.0% 0.0 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 15.5% 84.5% 3.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 1.1 88.6 11.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6% 100.0% 1.2 75.2 24.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7% 100.0% 1.4 61.4 35.0 3.6