Iowa St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +20.7 8
Expected Predictive Rating +21.4 8
Pace 69.8 145
Improvement -4.3 334

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A- #25 A A- B- C C+
Defense A #6 B+ B- A+ B+ A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 90 68% 14 +6.3 15
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 217 37% 219 -1.0 230
Three Pointers 39% 213 41% 3 +3.6 64
1st FG Attempt 1.20 8 +9.0 8
Second Chance 39.7% 9 1.07 125 0.42 25
Turnovers 15.2% 78
Freethrows 0.33 105 68% 310 0.23 158
Total Offense +9.4 25

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% 356 56% 140 +6.1 22
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% 41 34% 39 -0.9 261
Three Pointers 45% 62 30% 32 +0.7 157
1st FG Attempt 0.90 35 +5.8 35
Second Chance 26.3% 43 1.02 160 0.27 66
Turnovers 23.1% 4
Freethrows 0.24 21 70% 82 0.17 21
Total Defense +11.4 6

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.5 123 -1.4 20
Shot Type Accuracy +8.2 7 -4.4 40
Possession Length 15.9 49 18.8 352
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 62 0.13 40
Improvement -4.4 #352 +0.1 #187

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1% 1% 0%
#1 Seed 10% 12% 4%
Top 2 Seed 35% 43% 19%
Top 4 Seed 85% 91% 72%
Top 6 Seed 99% 100% 97%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100% 100% 100%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100% 100% 100%
Average Seed 3.1 2.8 3.8
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 3% 4% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round100% 100% 100%
Second Round96% 97% 94%
Sweet Sixteen66% 68% 61%
Elite Eight35% 37% 30%
Final Four17% 19% 15%
Championship Game8% 9% 7%
National Champion3% 4% 3%

Next Game: Kansas (Home) - 67.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 44 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 28 - 6
Quad 29 - 017 - 6
Quad 33 - 020 - 6
Quad 47 - 027 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 329 Fairleigh Dickinson W 88 - 50 100% +24  99% 1 - 0 A+ +24 B- +5 A F B+ A+ +19 A+ C- A+
 Thu, Nov 6 285 Grambling St. W 102 - 62 99% +16  99% 2 - 0 A+ +30 A+ +19 A+ A B+ A- +9 C+ B+ A
 Mon, Nov 10 79 Mississippi St. W 96 - 80 89% +11  82% 3 - 0 A+ +23 A+ +18 A+ A+ B B- +4 C- F A+
 Mon, Nov 17 330 Stonehill W 96 - 57 100% +18  100% 4 - 0 A+ +25 A+ +19 A+ C+ B- B +6 F A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 20 St. John's W 83 - 82 62% +2  64% 5 - 0 A +19 A+ +18 C+ A+ A+ C+ +1 A- D+ C+
 Tue, Nov 25 61 Creighton W 78 - 60 87% +10  91% 6 - 0 A+ +27 B +7 C A+ A A+ +20 B A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 67 Syracuse W 95 - 64 87% +11  78% 7 - 0 A+ +39 A+ +20 A+ C A+ A+ +18 A A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 351 Alcorn St. W 132 - 68 100% +36  94% 8 - 0 A+ +48 A+ +31 A+ A+ C+ A- +9 F C A+
 Sat, Dec 6 9 @Purdue W 81 - 58 39% +9  73% 9 - 0 A+ +47 A+ +21 A+ C C A+ +28 A+ B+ A+
 Thu, Dec 11 25 Iowa W 66 - 62 77% -1  47% 10 - 0 A- +17 B- +4 C C A+ A+ +13 C+ C+ A+
 Sun, Dec 14 326 Eastern Illinois W 78 - 53 100% +15  76% 11 - 0 B+ +12 C +0 C D B A +11 B C+ A+
 Sun, Dec 21 251 Long Beach St. W 91 - 60 99% +29  99% 12 - 0 A+ +23 B +7 A B+ C+ A+ +14 A- A+ B-
 Mon, Dec 29 298 Houston Christian W 89 - 61 99% +12  94% 13 - 0 A- +17 A +11 F+ A+ A B+ +7 C A B+
 Fri, Jan 2 56 West Virginia W 80 - 59 89% +10  72% 14 - 0 1 - 0 A+ +28 A+ +23 A+ A C A- +8 B+ B+ A-
 Wed, Jan 7 42 @Baylor W 70 - 60 69% +3  50% 15 - 0 2 - 0 A+ +26 C +0 D B+ C- A+ +25 A+ D A
 Sat, Jan 10 59 Oklahoma St. W 83 - 71 91% +3  61% 16 - 0 3 - 0 A +18 B +6 C B A A +11 B A+ A
 Tue, Jan 13 12 @Kansas L 63 - 84 45% -15  0% 16 - 1 3 - 1 C +1 B- +5 B+ C D- D+ -5 F+ A- C
 Sat, Jan 17 45 @Cincinnati L 70 - 79 72% -7  13% 16 - 2 3 - 2 B- +6 A- +11 B- A B- D -6 C- C- F+
 Tue, Jan 20 52 Central Florida W 87 - 57 89% +15  96% 17 - 2 4 - 2 A+ +38 A+ +19 B+ A+ A+ A+ +21 A+ C A+
 Sat, Jan 24 59 @Oklahoma St. W 84 - 71 79% +18  99% 18 - 2 5 - 2 A+ +25 A +13 A- A+ F A +12 B B+ A
 Thu, Jan 29 77 Colorado W 97 - 67 93% +22  95% 19 - 2 6 - 2 A+ +34 A+ +24 A+ A+ B+ A +11 A- A+ C+
 Sun, Feb 1 101 @Kansas St. W 95 - 61 88% +23  96% 20 - 2 7 - 2 A+ +42 A+ +21 A+ C B- A+ +20 A+ A+ B+
 Sat, Feb 7 42 Baylor W 72 - 69 85% +4  75% 21 - 2 8 - 2 B+ +13 B +7 A+ C+ F B +6 A+ F C
 Tue, Feb 10 50 @TCU L 55 - 62 74% +1  62% 21 - 3 8 - 3 B- +7 F -10 D B- F A+ +17 A+ D+ A+
 Sat, Feb 14 12 Kansas W 75 - 70 67%
 Mon, Feb 16 5 Houston W 70 - 69 54%
 Sat, Feb 21 21 @BYU W 81 - 80 51%
 Tue, Feb 24 110 @Utah W 83 - 69 91%
 Sat, Feb 28 16 Texas Tech W 77 - 72 69%
 Mon, Mar 2 2 @Arizona L 74 - 81 26%
 Sat, Mar 7 69 Arizona St. W 85 - 69 93%
Totals 26 - 5 13 - 5 +21 A- +9 A A- B- A +11 B+ B- A+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A- A- C- A A 42% 19% 39% C+ A A C+ A- B- B- D C A C+ B B+ B+ 29% 26% 45% A- B+ B C B- A+ B+ B- B+
1.22 68% 37% 41% +8 0 1.20 40% 1.1 .42 15% .33 68% .23 0.92 56% 34% 30% -4 -1 0.90 26% 1.0 .27 23% .24 70% .23
Nov
3		 Fairleigh Dickinson B- A+ F+ A+ A+ 34% 27% 39% D- A C- F F B+ F D- F A+ C- A+ A+ A+ 22% 24% 54% A A+ A+ F C- A+ D- A+ C
1.25 85% 31% 52% +18 -1 1.36 26% 0.3 .09 13% .15 67% .10 0.71 60% 18% 20% -16 -2 0.67 20% 1.4 .28 25% .32 59% .19
Nov
6		 Grambling St. A+ B A+ A+ A+ 42% 9% 49% B- A+ A C+ A B+ A+ F B+ A- C- B- B C 42% 36% 22% A C+ A+ F B+ A F+ B D
1.36 64% 60% 42% +11 +2 1.26 44% 1.1 .47 16% .46 62% .29 0.83 58% 31% 30% -4 -2 0.91 16% 1.2 .19 25% .41 70% .29
Nov
10		 Mississippi St. A+ B+ A+ F+ A 51% 15% 35% A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ B A+ B- A+ B- B- F D C- 33% 16% 51% D+ C- F D- F A+ C F D+
1.27 64% 63% 26% +3 +2 1.11 41% 1.1 .46 12% .37 76% .28 1.06 56% 50% 36% +3 0 1.08 48% 1.1 .55 34% .28 79% .22
Nov
17		 Stonehill A+ A+ A+ B- A+ 42% 23% 36% C- A+ B- D+ C+ B- A+ F+ A+ B F D+ F+ F 14% 39% 47% A+ F A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+
1.36 73% 67% 37% +14 0 1.30 30% 1.0 .30 10% .47 63% .30 0.81 71% 40% 38% +5 -4 1.04 19% 0.5 .09 28% .04 50% .02
Nov
24		 St. John's A+ F+ F A+ C+ 43% 24% 33% C C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ C+ B+ A+ C- A- 46% 19% 35% B- A- D+ C D+ C+ F D+ F
1.21 43% 25% 44% -5 0 0.92 45% 1.3 .58 16% .43 80% .35 1.20 50% 22% 35% -6 +1 0.92 42% 1.2 .50 15% .51 77% .39
Nov
25		 Creighton B C D D C- 52% 24% 24% B+ C A- A+ A+ A B- D- C A+ A+ F D- B 32% 16% 52% C B C- A+ A+ A+ B A+ A
1.15 57% 31% 31% -3 +1 0.96 36% 1.5 .53 12% .23 64% .15 0.88 44% 50% 38% +1 0 1.04 30% 0.4 .11 25% .22 55% .12
Nov
26		 Syracuse A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 56% 11% 33% A A+ C- C+ C A+ B F+ C A+ C A+ B A 37% 12% 51% D+ A C- A+ A+ A+ C- B- C
1.32 70% 50% 44% +13 +2 1.33 30% 1.1 .33 13% .33 67% .22 0.89 61% 17% 32% -3 +1 0.98 33% 0.6 .19 26% .36 63% .23
Dec
3		 Alcorn St. A+ A- F A+ A+ 44% 9% 47% B- A+ A A+ A+ C+ B- C+ B- A- F A F F 30% 34% 36% A F C+ C- C A+ A- C+ B+
1.64 72% 20% 74% +33 +2 1.72 48% 2.0 .95 17% .36 75% .27 0.85 80% 24% 44% +7 -2 1.12 24% 0.9 .21 34% .17 67% .11
Dec
6		 Purdue A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 24% 36% 40% D- A+ A+ F C C F C- F+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ 31% 35% 33% A A+ D A+ B+ A+ C+ A+ A+
1.24 75% 61% 50% +22 -3 1.40 38% 0.6 .24 18% .11 67% .08 0.89 80% 29% 13% -7 -2 0.83 42% 0.9 .36 23% .28 43% .12
Dec
11		 Iowa B- B- F C C 44% 21% 35% C+ C B- D- C A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ D+ C F C- 34% 36% 30% A+ C+ B- D+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A+
1.07 63% 22% 33% -1 0 1.00 30% 0.8 .24 15% .44 74% .32 1.01 67% 44% 46% +10 -2 1.18 31% 1.1 .35 26% .11 60% .07
Dec
14		 Eastern Illinois C A+ A F C 42% 17% 42% C C C F+ D B A+ D A+ A A A C+ B 29% 33% 39% B B B- C C+ A+ B C- B
1.11 75% 50% 20% 0 +1 1.04 34% 0.9 .31 17% .46 74% .34 0.75 43% 25% 32% -10 -2 0.78 23% 1.0 .23 26% .23 75% .17
Dec
21		 Long Beach St. B A+ F A+ A+ 35% 31% 35% F+ A A D+ B+ C+ F+ F F A+ F D+ A+ A- 28% 35% 37% B+ A- A+ A+ A+ B- A+ B A
1.24 74% 29% 53% +12 -2 1.24 38% 1.2 .44 16% .29 44% .13 0.81 75% 40% 14% -5 -3 0.86 18% 0.6 .10 19% .17 70% .12
Dec
29		 Houston Christian A A+ F F F+ 41% 25% 34% D- F+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ D+ A+ B+ F D+ B+ D- 19% 45% 36% A+ C A+ F A B+ D F F
1.34 83% 9% 27% -1 0 1.00 53% 1.4 .75 14% .66 71% .47 0.92 89% 38% 29% +4 -4 1.00 10% 1.3 .13 21% .32 82% .27
Jan
2		 West Virginia A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 30% 23% 47% D+ A+ A+ D A C A- F C+ A- F A+ A+ B+ 31% 18% 51% B B+ A D B+ A- A F C+
1.32 85% 30% 55% +21 -1 1.42 43% 0.9 .39 18% .30 60% .18 0.98 71% 25% 26% -4 0 0.93 23% 1.3 .30 20% .25 83% .21
Jan
7		 Baylor C A+ C- F C- 18% 53% 29% F D A C B+ C- A F B- A+ B A+ A+ A+ 15% 38% 48% A+ A+ D C- D A F A+ F
1.01 78% 38% 21% -1 -6 0.88 38% 0.9 .36 17% .35 60% .21 0.87 57% 17% 13% -23 -4 0.48 43% 1.2 .51 20% .53 59% .31
Jan
10		 Oklahoma St. B C+ F B- C+ 44% 28% 28% D C C A+ B A A+ A+ A+ A C- B C- C+ 32% 21% 47% A+ B A+ F A+ A F F+ F
1.14 59% 29% 36% -1 -1 0.98 28% 1.3 .38 14% .48 80% .38 0.98 60% 30% 36% +1 -1 1.02 10% 1.3 .13 21% .45 81% .36
Jan
13		 Kansas B- C- F B B- 46% 10% 44% A+ B+ A+ F C D- C F D+ D+ B- F F F 38% 19% 42% C- F+ D A+ A- C A+ F+ A
0.97 50% 0% 35% -7 +2 0.92 40% 0.5 .21 18% .21 55% .11 1.29 60% 60% 45% +12 0 1.27 37% 0.8 .30 14% .21 83% .18
Jan
17		 Cincinnati A- F+ F A+ C+ 44% 16% 40% A- B- A- A- A B- A+ D- A+ D C- F C D 24% 27% 49% A C- F A- C- F+ A- F+ B
1.06 42% 29% 41% -4 +1 0.95 31% 1.3 .40 18% .50 63% .31 1.19 62% 53% 33% +5 -2 1.07 42% 0.9 .36 12% .21 75% .15
Jan
20		 Central Florida A+ A- F D+ B- 51% 8% 42% A+ B+ A+ A A+ A+ B F C- A+ B C- A+ A+ 22% 20% 57% B+ A+ C+ C C A+ A+ F A+
1.33 67% 25% 32% +2 +3 1.11 44% 1.3 .56 8% .35 57% .20 0.87 55% 40% 21% -11 -1 0.78 36% 1.2 .44 29% .13 83% .11
Jan
24		 Oklahoma St. A D+ A+ A- B+ 41% 7% 51% B+ A- A+ A+ A+ F A+ A A+ A B C- C B- 33% 17% 50% A B C+ A B+ A D- D F+
1.19 53% 67% 38% +3 +2 1.12 41% 1.6 .67 26% .52 78% .40 1.01 53% 38% 35% -1 0 1.00 31% 0.8 .25 20% .41 78% .32
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
29		 Colorado A+ A+ B- A+ A+ 36% 24% 40% C A+ A- A A+ B+ A+ C- A A F A+ A A- 31% 24% 45% A- A- A+ C- A+ C+ C B- C+
1.42 83% 42% 50% +20 -1 1.40 35% 1.3 .46 13% .41 71% .29 0.98 80% 25% 27% -1 -1 0.98 15% 1.0 .15 15% .33 74% .24
Feb
1		 Kansas St. A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ 34% 20% 46% C A+ B F+ C B- B+ B B+ A+ B+ D+ B A 25% 34% 42% A+ A+ A+ B- A+ B+ A+ B+ A+
1.33 71% 40% 57% +20 0 1.42 38% 1.0 .38 17% .34 75% .25 0.86 54% 39% 32% -2 -3 0.92 22% 1.0 .22 20% .10 67% .07
Feb
7		 Baylor B A+ C+ D A 33% 28% 40% A A+ A+ F C+ F A+ F A- B F A- A A+ 17% 25% 58% C+ A+ A+ F F C A+ A- A+
1.15 93% 42% 29% +10 -1 1.19 45% 0.6 .29 22% .39 63% .25 1.10 75% 33% 29% -3 -2 0.92 26% 2.6 .68 14% .17 67% .11
Feb
10		 TCU F A F F F+ 45% 10% 45% A D C A- B- F F F F A+ A+ C B A+ 48% 17% 35% D+ A+ B- F D+ A+ F A- D
0.80 68% 0% 18% -10 +2 0.86 26% 1.2 .31 25% .16 25% .04 0.91 41% 38% 31% -10 +1 0.85 31% 1.3 .41 22% .43 65% .28



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 2.2 3.0 1st
2nd 1.3 8.3 1.4 10.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.2 17.7 8.0 28.9 3rd
4th 1.7 14.4 11.9 0.1 28.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 9.3 9.6 0.7 20.1 5th
6th 0.1 2.6 4.0 0.3 7.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.2 1.5 7th
8th 0.2 0.1 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.6 4.3 15.3 27.6 31.5 17.1 3.6 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 61.9% 2.2    0.3 1.4 0.6
14-4 4.5% 0.8    0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 0.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.0% 3.0 0.3 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 3.6% 100.0% 25.1% 74.9% 1.5 1.9 1.4 0.3 100.0%
14-4 17.1% 100.0% 20.2% 79.8% 2.1 3.9 8.6 3.9 0.8 0.0 100.0%
13-5 31.5% 100.0% 14.9% 85.1% 2.7 3.0 10.7 12.1 5.0 0.6 0.0 100.0%
12-6 27.6% 100.0% 9.7% 90.3% 3.4 0.6 3.9 10.2 8.7 3.5 0.6 0.0 100.0%
11-7 15.3% 100.0% 6.3% 93.7% 4.3 0.1 0.7 3.0 4.9 4.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 100.0%
10-8 4.3% 100.0% 3.5% 96.5% 5.3 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.3 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
9-9 0.6% 100.0% 7.3% 92.7% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 100.0%
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 12.9% 87.1% 3.1 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 1.2 81.3 17.6 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8% 100.0% 1.5 52.6 43.6 3.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.3% 100.0% 1.8 36.4 51.9 11.6