Iowa St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+19.4#5
Expected Predictive Rating+22.0#6
Pace71.7#102
Improvement+0.3#158

Offense
Total Offense+11.2#8
First Shot+9.0#7
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#61
Layup/Dunks+4.3#45
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#43
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#217
Freethrows+3.3#34
Improvement-0.1#183

Defense
Total Defense+8.3#7
First Shot+6.1#23
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#46
Layups/Dunks+6.0#26
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#329
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#152
Freethrows+1.3#90
Improvement+0.5#146
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 7.3% 7.3% 4.2%
#1 Seed 33.2% 33.2% 20.8%
Top 2 Seed 62.2% 62.2% 37.5%
Top 4 Seed 89.0% 89.0% 66.7%
Top 6 Seed 96.8% 96.8% 87.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.8% 99.8% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.7% 99.7% 100.0%
Average Seed 2.5 2.5 3.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.1% 98.1% 95.8%
Conference Champion 38.2% 38.2% 16.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 4.2%
First Round99.7% 99.7% 95.8%
Second Round94.1% 94.1% 91.7%
Sweet Sixteen68.0% 67.9% 79.2%
Elite Eight42.9% 42.9% 54.2%
Final Four24.6% 24.6% 25.0%
Championship Game13.3% 13.3% 4.2%
National Champion6.9% 6.9% 0.0%

Next Game: Morgan St. (Home) - 100.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 45 - 4
Quad 1b6 - 111 - 6
Quad 27 - 118 - 7
Quad 32 - 021 - 7
Quad 46 - 027 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 83-44 99.9%    1 - 0 +14.8 -3.9 +16.6
  Nov 11, 2024 240   UMKC W 82-56 98%     2 - 0 +18.7 +11.3 +8.9
  Nov 18, 2024 354   IU Indianapolis W 87-52 99.6%    3 - 0 +19.2 +4.4 +14.7
  Nov 25, 2024 1   Auburn L 81-83 37%     3 - 1 +20.8 +14.3 +6.5
  Nov 26, 2024 46   Dayton W 89-84 80%     4 - 1 +15.6 +21.3 -5.6
  Nov 27, 2024 75   Colorado W 99-71 87%     5 - 1 +35.5 +26.3 +8.0
  Dec 04, 2024 18   Marquette W 81-70 76%     6 - 1 +23.1 +13.5 +9.7
  Dec 08, 2024 303   Jackson St. W 100-58 99%     7 - 1 +31.3 +18.6 +10.2
  Dec 12, 2024 42   @ Iowa W 89-80 71%     8 - 1 +22.8 +18.8 +3.9
  Dec 15, 2024 298   Nebraska Omaha W 83-51 99%     9 - 1 +21.8 +5.5 +16.5
  Dec 22, 2024 348   Morgan St. W 98-63 100.0%   
  Dec 30, 2024 75   @ Colorado W 79-70 80%    
  Jan 04, 2025 12   Baylor W 79-73 73%    
  Jan 07, 2025 66   Utah W 85-71 90%    
  Jan 11, 2025 24   @ Texas Tech W 77-74 59%    
  Jan 15, 2025 10   Kansas W 79-74 69%    
  Jan 18, 2025 39   @ West Virginia W 76-71 67%    
  Jan 21, 2025 84   Central Florida W 83-67 92%    
  Jan 25, 2025 62   @ Arizona St. W 80-73 75%    
  Jan 27, 2025 17   @ Arizona W 81-80 54%    
  Feb 01, 2025 68   Kansas St. W 82-68 90%    
  Feb 03, 2025 10   @ Kansas L 76-77 47%    
  Feb 08, 2025 88   TCU W 81-65 93%    
  Feb 11, 2025 84   @ Central Florida W 80-70 81%    
  Feb 15, 2025 26   Cincinnati W 77-68 79%    
  Feb 18, 2025 75   Colorado W 82-67 91%    
  Feb 22, 2025 6   @ Houston L 67-70 40%    
  Feb 25, 2025 97   @ Oklahoma St. W 84-73 84%    
  Mar 01, 2025 17   Arizona W 84-77 74%    
  Mar 04, 2025 40   BYU W 84-73 83%    
  Mar 08, 2025 68   @ Kansas St. W 79-71 77%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.6 8.8 11.0 8.6 4.3 1.1 38.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.9 8.2 6.5 2.6 0.5 0.0 22.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.7 3.9 1.0 0.1 13.9 3rd
4th 0.2 1.6 4.1 2.7 0.5 0.0 9.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.6 2.3 0.4 0.0 6.0 5th
6th 0.2 1.5 1.9 0.5 0.0 4.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.2 4.3 7.0 10.4 13.5 16.2 16.3 13.6 9.1 4.3 1.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.1    1.1
19-1 99.8% 4.3    4.2 0.1
18-2 94.5% 8.6    7.6 1.0 0.0
17-3 80.7% 11.0    7.7 3.0 0.3 0.0
16-4 53.9% 8.8    4.1 3.7 0.9 0.1
15-5 22.2% 3.6    0.9 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0
14-6 5.4% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 38.2% 38.2 25.6 9.6 2.4 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.1% 100.0% 50.4% 49.6% 1.1 1.0 0.1 100.0%
19-1 4.3% 100.0% 46.2% 53.8% 1.1 3.7 0.6 0.0 100.0%
18-2 9.1% 100.0% 42.0% 58.0% 1.2 7.0 2.1 0.1 100.0%
17-3 13.6% 100.0% 34.6% 65.4% 1.4 8.5 4.6 0.5 0.0 100.0%
16-4 16.3% 100.0% 30.1% 69.9% 1.7 7.1 7.3 1.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 16.2% 100.0% 24.3% 75.7% 2.1 4.1 7.3 3.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 13.5% 100.0% 20.9% 79.1% 2.7 1.5 4.6 5.0 2.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-7 10.4% 100.0% 14.6% 85.4% 3.3 0.2 1.9 3.8 3.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-8 7.0% 100.0% 10.3% 89.7% 4.1 0.1 0.4 1.6 2.3 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-9 4.3% 99.9% 7.0% 92.9% 5.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
10-10 2.2% 99.7% 4.4% 95.4% 6.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
9-11 1.2% 97.1% 2.8% 94.3% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.0%
8-12 0.5% 87.8% 1.1% 86.7% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 87.7%
7-13 0.2% 79.1% 1.1% 78.0% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 78.9%
6-14 0.0% 13.6% 13.6% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.6%
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.8% 25.5% 74.3% 2.5 33.2 29.0 17.0 9.8 5.0 2.8 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 99.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 1.1 92.7 7.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 86.4 13.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 87.4 12.6