Iowa St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.0#8
Expected Predictive Rating+18.1#11
Pace70.3#126
Improvement-5.4#346

Offense
Total Offense+8.1#23
First Shot+6.3#40
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#83
Layup/Dunks+4.3#41
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#47
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#275
Freethrows+2.3#59
Improvement-6.7#364

Defense
Total Defense+10.0#6
First Shot+7.7#14
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#25
Layups/Dunks+5.6#29
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#329
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#110
Freethrows+2.6#34
Improvement+1.4#115
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.7% 2.9% 0.7%
Top 2 Seed 12.0% 12.9% 4.9%
Top 4 Seed 49.5% 51.8% 30.9%
Top 6 Seed 81.5% 83.5% 65.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.7% 99.8% 98.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.7% 99.8% 98.8%
Average Seed 4.7 4.6 5.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 99.9% 98.7%
Conference Champion 3.7% 4.0% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.4%
First Round99.7% 99.8% 98.7%
Second Round84.6% 85.7% 76.0%
Sweet Sixteen49.9% 51.1% 40.7%
Elite Eight24.6% 25.4% 18.5%
Final Four11.9% 12.4% 7.7%
Championship Game5.5% 5.8% 3.2%
National Champion2.3% 2.4% 1.4%

Next Game: TCU (Home) - 88.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 54 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 18 - 7
Quad 27 - 115 - 8
Quad 34 - 119 - 8
Quad 46 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 83-44 99.9%    1 - 0 +11.4 -6.1 +15.5
  Nov 11, 2024 235   UMKC W 82-56 98%     2 - 0 +19.2 +12.5 +8.3
  Nov 18, 2024 330   IU Indianapolis W 87-52 99%     3 - 0 +21.9 +3.2 +18.5
  Nov 25, 2024 1   Auburn L 81-83 31%     3 - 1 +21.2 +15.2 +6.0
  Nov 26, 2024 80   Dayton W 89-84 84%     4 - 1 +12.3 +19.4 -7.0
  Nov 27, 2024 98   Colorado W 99-71 89%     5 - 1 +32.9 +25.2 +6.4
  Dec 04, 2024 21   Marquette W 81-70 68%     6 - 1 +24.3 +15.2 +9.1
  Dec 08, 2024 284   Jackson St. W 100-58 99%     7 - 1 +32.8 +18.6 +11.6
  Dec 12, 2024 60   @ Iowa W 89-80 72%     8 - 1 +20.9 +16.6 +4.1
  Dec 15, 2024 212   Nebraska Omaha W 83-51 97%     9 - 1 +26.8 +6.4 +20.7
  Dec 22, 2024 329   Morgan St. W 99-72 99%     10 - 1 +14.0 +12.4 +0.2
  Dec 30, 2024 98   @ Colorado W 79-69 84%     11 - 1 1 - 0 +17.4 +13.0 +4.6
  Jan 04, 2025 20   Baylor W 74-55 67%     12 - 1 2 - 0 +32.3 +10.8 +23.0
  Jan 07, 2025 84   Utah W 82-59 89%     13 - 1 3 - 0 +27.6 +12.4 +15.4
  Jan 11, 2025 12   @ Texas Tech W 85-84 OT 42%     14 - 1 4 - 0 +21.1 +13.5 +7.6
  Jan 15, 2025 7   Kansas W 74-57 56%     15 - 1 5 - 0 +33.5 +9.3 +23.8
  Jan 18, 2025 39   @ West Virginia L 57-64 64%     15 - 2 5 - 1 +7.4 -3.1 +10.2
  Jan 21, 2025 62   Central Florida W 108-83 86%     16 - 2 6 - 1 +31.5 +24.0 +4.4
  Jan 25, 2025 61   @ Arizona St. W 76-61 74%     17 - 2 7 - 1 +26.5 +11.5 +15.1
  Jan 27, 2025 10   @ Arizona L 75-86 OT 41%     17 - 3 7 - 2 +9.3 +3.0 +7.5
  Feb 01, 2025 55   Kansas St. L 61-80 84%     17 - 4 7 - 3 -11.6 -7.9 -3.7
  Feb 03, 2025 7   @ Kansas L 52-69 37%     17 - 5 7 - 4 +4.5 -2.2 +4.6
  Feb 08, 2025 68   TCU W 75-62 89%    
  Feb 11, 2025 62   @ Central Florida W 81-74 71%    
  Feb 15, 2025 59   Cincinnati W 72-61 85%    
  Feb 18, 2025 98   Colorado W 80-64 93%    
  Feb 22, 2025 3   @ Houston L 62-69 24%    
  Feb 25, 2025 102   @ Oklahoma St. W 79-68 83%    
  Mar 01, 2025 10   Arizona W 78-75 61%    
  Mar 04, 2025 33   BYU W 78-71 75%    
  Mar 08, 2025 55   @ Kansas St. W 75-69 68%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.3 2.3 3.7 1st
2nd 0.1 3.6 8.9 1.8 14.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.9 13.7 7.1 0.1 23.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 11.7 11.5 1.0 26.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 6.0 9.5 1.7 17.8 5th
6th 0.2 2.3 4.9 1.6 0.0 8.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.0 1.1 0.0 3.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.7 5.5 13.7 25.8 30.6 18.3 4.2 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 54.8% 2.3    0.5 1.2 0.5 0.1
15-5 7.3% 1.3    0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1
14-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.7% 3.7 0.6 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 4.2% 100.0% 22.2% 77.8% 2.0 1.2 2.0 0.8 0.3 100.0%
15-5 18.3% 100.0% 18.2% 81.8% 3.1 1.2 4.6 6.3 4.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-6 30.6% 100.0% 11.4% 88.6% 4.1 0.3 2.2 7.2 9.3 7.5 3.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 25.8% 100.0% 9.3% 90.7% 5.2 0.0 0.5 2.6 4.8 7.1 6.0 3.7 1.0 0.1 100.0%
12-8 13.7% 99.7% 5.5% 94.2% 6.4 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.3 3.2 4.0 2.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 99.7%
11-9 5.5% 98.5% 4.9% 93.6% 7.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.6 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.1 98.5%
10-10 1.7% 95.2% 3.6% 91.6% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 95.0%
9-11 0.2% 77.3% 9.1% 68.2% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 75.0%
8-12 0.0% 0.0 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.7% 11.2% 88.5% 4.7 2.7 9.3 17.2 20.3 18.6 13.4 10.5 5.2 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.3 99.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 1.5 54.3 42.6 3.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0% 100.0% 1.9 33.7 46.3 17.9 2.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.4% 100.0% 2.2 18.3 53.5 20.4 7.7