Iowa St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+20.4#6
Expected Predictive Rating+23.2#8
Pace73.4#90
Improvement+1.6#67

Offense
Total Offense+10.4#11
First Shot+10.1#7
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#158
Layup/Dunks+5.2#34
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#169
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#61
Freethrows+0.5#153
Improvement+0.7#122

Defense
Total Defense+10.0#6
First Shot+8.8#10
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#108
Layups/Dunks+6.3#18
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#213
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#178
Freethrows+2.4#54
Improvement+0.9#110
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 5.5% 8.8% 3.9%
#1 Seed 25.2% 34.9% 20.5%
Top 2 Seed 50.7% 63.7% 44.6%
Top 4 Seed 83.0% 90.5% 79.5%
Top 6 Seed 95.0% 98.1% 93.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.6% 99.9% 99.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.5% 99.9% 99.3%
Average Seed 2.9 2.4 3.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 97.6% 98.8% 97.1%
Conference Champion 32.4% 38.5% 29.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Round99.5% 99.9% 99.3%
Second Round92.9% 95.7% 91.5%
Sweet Sixteen66.3% 72.5% 63.3%
Elite Eight39.1% 45.9% 35.9%
Final Four21.4% 26.2% 19.1%
Championship Game10.8% 13.7% 9.4%
National Champion5.3% 7.4% 4.3%

Next Game: Purdue (Away) - 32.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 45 - 4
Quad 1b5 - 110 - 5
Quad 28 - 118 - 6
Quad 32 - 020 - 6
Quad 47 - 027 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 362 Fairleigh Dickinson W 88-50 99.7%    1 - 0 +20.1 +4.1 +15.6
  Thu, Nov 6 284 Grambling St. W 102-62 99%     2 - 0 +30.3 +19.4 +8.3
  Mon, Nov 10 81 Mississippi St. W 96-80 89%     3 - 0 +23.2 +18.8 +3.1
  Mon, Nov 17 338 Stonehill W 96-57 99.5%    4 - 0 +24.9 +17.7 +6.8
  Mon, Nov 24 13 St. John's W 83-82 60%     5 - 0 +18.9 +18.8 +0.1
  Tue, Nov 25 45 Creighton W 78-60 81%     6 - 0 +29.3 +11.9 +17.9
  Wed, Nov 26 61 Syracuse W 95-64 85%     7 - 0 +40.1 +25.3 +13.9
  Wed, Dec 3 333 Alcorn St. W 132-68 99%     8 - 0 +50.5 +36.1 +6.1
  Sat, Dec 6 2 @Purdue L 74-79 32%    
  Thu, Dec 11 27 Iowa W 77-68 80%    
  Sun, Dec 14 325 Eastern Illinois W 88-55 99.9%   
  Sun, Dec 21 286 Long Beach St. W 89-59 99.7%   
  Mon, Dec 29 282 Houston Christian W 88-58 99.8%   
  Fri, Jan 2 65 West Virginia W 78-63 91%    
  Wed, Jan 7 28 @Baylor W 83-79 63%    
  Sat, Jan 10 47 Oklahoma St. W 91-79 87%    
  Tue, Jan 13 18 @Kansas W 75-74 55%    
  Sat, Jan 17 68 @Cincinnati W 79-70 80%    
  Tue, Jan 20 63 Central Florida W 89-74 91%    
  Sat, Jan 24 47 @Oklahoma St. W 88-82 72%    
  Thu, Jan 29 64 Colorado W 86-71 91%    
  Sun, Feb 1 71 @Kansas St. W 88-78 80%    
  Sat, Feb 7 28 Baylor W 86-76 80%    
  Tue, Feb 10 48 @TCU W 78-72 72%    
  Sat, Feb 14 18 Kansas W 78-71 74%    
  Mon, Feb 16 7 Houston W 71-67 62%    
  Sat, Feb 21 8 @BYU L 76-78 43%    
  Tue, Feb 24 117 @Utah W 85-71 89%    
  Sat, Feb 28 30 Texas Tech W 81-71 80%    
  Mon, Mar 2 9 @Arizona L 79-81 43%    
  Sat, Mar 7 82 Arizona St. W 87-71 93%    
Projected Record 26 - 5 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 4.5 9.4 10.2 5.9 1.6 32.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 4.9 8.7 6.0 1.5 0.1 22.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.8 7.1 3.7 0.6 0.0 15.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.2 2.7 0.4 10.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 3.3 2.2 0.3 6.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.0 1.8 0.3 0.0 4.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 1.5 0.5 0.0 3.1 7th
8th 0.3 1.1 0.4 0.0 1.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.5 3.0 5.3 8.5 12.5 15.9 17.3 15.9 11.7 5.9 1.6 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.6    1.6
17-1 98.5% 5.9    5.3 0.5
16-2 87.3% 10.2    7.6 2.5 0.1
15-3 58.8% 9.4    4.6 3.9 0.8 0.0
14-4 26.0% 4.5    1.1 1.9 1.2 0.2 0.0
13-5 5.5% 0.9    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 32.4% 32.4 20.3 9.1 2.4 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.6% 100.0% 51.5% 48.5% 1.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-1 5.9% 100.0% 45.3% 54.7% 1.3 4.4 1.4 0.1 100.0%
16-2 11.7% 100.0% 35.7% 64.3% 1.5 6.9 4.1 0.6 0.0 100.0%
15-3 15.9% 100.0% 31.5% 68.5% 1.8 6.8 6.6 2.2 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-4 17.3% 100.0% 25.9% 74.1% 2.3 3.8 7.1 4.9 1.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 15.9% 100.0% 20.7% 79.3% 2.9 1.6 4.2 6.0 3.2 0.8 0.1 100.0%
12-6 12.5% 100.0% 14.0% 86.0% 3.6 0.3 1.6 3.9 4.0 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 8.5% 100.0% 10.2% 89.8% 4.5 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.6 2.4 1.3 0.3 0.0 100.0%
10-8 5.3% 99.6% 5.6% 94.0% 5.4 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.6 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
9-9 3.0% 99.6% 6.0% 93.5% 6.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.5%
8-10 1.5% 97.5% 2.7% 94.8% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 97.5%
7-11 0.5% 78.1% 78.1% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 78.1%
6-12 0.2% 50.7% 50.7% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 50.7%
5-13 0.1% 22.6% 22.6% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 22.6%
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.6% 23.6% 76.0% 2.9 25.2 25.6 19.5 12.8 7.6 4.3 2.2 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.4 99.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.1 90.2 9.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 89.7 10.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 92.9 7.1