Iowa St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.7#10
Expected Predictive Rating+17.1#14
Pace70.6#107
Improvement-4.3#330

Offense
Total Offense+7.6#32
First Shot+5.9#45
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#81
Layup/Dunks+4.2#46
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#49
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#274
Freethrows+2.2#59
Improvement-6.7#362

Defense
Total Defense+11.0#6
First Shot+8.6#12
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#24
Layups/Dunks+5.8#26
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#319
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#97
Freethrows+2.7#31
Improvement+2.4#67
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.8% 2.3% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 17.1% 21.8% 2.8%
Top 4 Seed 87.9% 94.0% 68.9%
Top 6 Seed 99.7% 100.0% 98.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 3.4 3.2 4.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round93.4% 94.2% 90.8%
Sweet Sixteen60.7% 61.8% 57.5%
Elite Eight28.0% 29.5% 23.2%
Final Four11.9% 12.2% 10.9%
Championship Game5.0% 5.1% 4.6%
National Champion2.0% 2.0% 1.8%

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b6 - 28 - 7
Quad 28 - 116 - 8
Quad 33 - 119 - 9
Quad 46 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 83-44 100.0%    1 - 0 +8.0 -7.6 +13.4
  Nov 11, 2024 234   UMKC W 82-56 98%     2 - 0 +19.3 +13.1 +7.8
  Nov 18, 2024 318   IU Indianapolis W 87-52 99%     3 - 0 +22.8 +1.6 +21.0
  Nov 25, 2024 2   Auburn L 81-83 30%     3 - 1 +22.2 +15.9 +6.3
  Nov 26, 2024 74   Dayton W 89-84 85%     4 - 1 +12.5 +19.6 -7.0
  Nov 27, 2024 85   Colorado W 99-71 87%     5 - 1 +34.7 +27.2 +6.3
  Dec 04, 2024 25   Marquette W 81-70 72%     6 - 1 +23.6 +14.9 +8.7
  Dec 08, 2024 269   Jackson St. W 100-58 99%     7 - 1 +33.3 +18.5 +12.3
  Dec 12, 2024 63   @ Iowa W 89-80 74%     8 - 1 +20.9 +16.2 +4.5
  Dec 15, 2024 149   Nebraska Omaha W 83-51 96%     9 - 1 +30.0 +6.9 +23.3
  Dec 22, 2024 333   Morgan St. W 99-72 99%     10 - 1 +13.2 +11.8 +0.0
  Dec 30, 2024 85   @ Colorado W 79-69 81%     11 - 1 1 - 0 +19.4 +15.1 +4.6
  Jan 04, 2025 27   Baylor W 74-55 74%     12 - 1 2 - 0 +31.0 +11.1 +21.4
  Jan 07, 2025 64   Utah W 82-59 88%     13 - 1 3 - 0 +29.0 +12.6 +16.6
  Jan 11, 2025 7   @ Texas Tech W 85-84 OT 36%     14 - 1 4 - 0 +23.5 +14.1 +9.3
  Jan 15, 2025 18   Kansas W 74-57 67%     15 - 1 5 - 0 +31.1 +8.5 +22.3
  Jan 18, 2025 43   @ West Virginia L 57-64 66%     15 - 2 5 - 1 +7.5 -2.0 +9.1
  Jan 21, 2025 78   Central Florida W 108-83 90%     16 - 2 6 - 1 +29.6 +22.4 +4.1
  Jan 25, 2025 73   @ Arizona St. W 76-61 79%     17 - 2 7 - 1 +25.3 +8.9 +16.6
  Jan 27, 2025 12   @ Arizona L 75-86 OT 42%     17 - 3 7 - 2 +9.7 +2.5 +8.5
  Feb 01, 2025 59   Kansas St. L 61-80 86%     17 - 4 7 - 3 -12.0 -5.9 -6.0
  Feb 03, 2025 18   @ Kansas L 52-69 47%     17 - 5 7 - 4 +2.6 -2.8 +3.3
  Feb 08, 2025 77   TCU W 82-52 90%     18 - 5 8 - 4 +34.6 +19.6 +16.8
  Feb 11, 2025 78   @ Central Florida W 77-65 79%     19 - 5 9 - 4 +22.1 +8.8 +13.5
  Feb 15, 2025 45   Cincinnati W 81-70 82%     20 - 5 10 - 4 +19.8 +16.3 +3.7
  Feb 18, 2025 85   Colorado W 79-65 91%     21 - 5 11 - 4 +17.9 +11.8 +6.4
  Feb 22, 2025 4   @ Houston L 59-68 25%     21 - 6 11 - 5 +16.6 +7.4 +7.9
  Feb 25, 2025 91   @ Oklahoma St. L 68-74 83%     21 - 7 11 - 6 +2.4 -1.7 +4.3
  Mar 01, 2025 12   Arizona W 84-67 63%     22 - 7 12 - 6 +32.2 +14.0 +17.6
  Mar 04, 2025 20   BYU L 85-88 2OT 68%     22 - 8 12 - 7 +10.7 +1.0 +10.2
  Mar 08, 2025 59   @ Kansas St. W 73-57 72%     23 - 8 13 - 7 +28.5 +8.9 +19.7
  Mar 12, 2025 45   Cincinnati W 72-65 75%    
Projected Record 24 - 8 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 100.0 100.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 100.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 100.0% 100.0% 9.4% 90.6% 3.4 1.8 15.4 40.7 30.1 9.5 2.3 0.3 100.0%
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 9.4% 90.6% 3.4 1.8 15.4 40.7 30.1 9.5 2.3 0.3 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 9.4% 100.0% 2.3 10.5 54.2 32.2 3.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 8.3% 100.0% 2.9 2.5 24.0 56.8 15.9 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 26.6% 100.0% 3.1 1.5 19.4 52.8 24.0 2.3 0.2
Lose Out 24.4% 100.0% 4.1 0.1 2.7 24.2 41.9 23.2 6.8 1.1