Fairleigh Dickinson
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -10.9 329
Expected Predictive Rating -12.7 344
Pace 64.4 296
Improvement +5.0 21

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D #316 D D+ D+ D C
Defense D #324 F+ B- D+ D+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 321 57% 197 -3.6 300
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 225 39% 137 -0.7 216
Three Pointers 49% 35 29% 349 +0.2 164
1st FG Attempt 0.94 306 -4.1 306
Second Chance 30.9% 168 0.86 351 0.26 281
Turnovers 18.3% 273
Freethrows 0.27 301 70% 250 0.19 307
Total Offense -5.5 316

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 205 64% 322 -1.9 245
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 221 41% 280 +0.0 189
Three Pointers 43% 113 39% 358 -4.7 346
1st FG Attempt 1.15 352 -6.5 351
Second Chance 27.9% 78 0.97 98 0.27 74
Turnovers 15.6% 258
Freethrows 0.34 295 72% 175 0.25 292
Total Defense -5.3 324

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.1 204 +0.2 194
Shot Type Accuracy -3.9 309 +6.2 358
Possession Length 19.3 345 16.6 62
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.06 364 0.18 226
Improvement +0.2 #167 +4.8 #14

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7% 7% 5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 86% 93% 64%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 1% 0% 2%
First Four6% 7% 5%
First Round3% 3% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: St. Francis (PA) (Home) - 73.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 40 - 8
Quad 49 - 1210 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 8 @Iowa St. L 50 - 88 0% -24  0% 0 - 1 D- -14 F -13 F C D C -1 F A+ D
 Sat, Nov 8 228 @St. Peter's L 83 - 93 17% -7  0% 0 - 2 D -11 B- +4 A+ A- F F -14 F B- D-
 Wed, Nov 12 30 @Texas L 58 - 93 1% -17  11% 0 - 3 F+ -17 F -15 F+ F B+ C -1 D A+ D
 Sat, Nov 15 315 @NJIT L 81 - 93 33% -11  0% 0 - 4 F -18 D+ -3 D- D B- F -14 F C- A
 Mon, Nov 24 300 East Texas A&M L 65 - 70 51% +5  71% 0 - 5 F+ -16 F+ -10 B- C- F D -7 F C+ C+
 Wed, Nov 26 341 Army L 73 - 81 66% -2  31% 0 - 6 F -23 D- -7 F A A+ F -16 D- D+ F
 Tue, Dec 2 60 @Providence L 64 - 94 3% -23  0% 0 - 7 F -18 D- -6 D+ C F F -14 F B- C+
 Wed, Dec 10 157 @Fordham L 54 - 75 11% -11  19% 0 - 8 F -18 F -14 C F D D -6 F C B
 Mon, Dec 22 129 @Boston College L 61 - 72 8% +2  59% 0 - 9 D+ -6 C+ +2 C C- A+ F+ -10 F+ F+ F+
 Mon, Dec 29 71 @Minnesota L 43 - 60 3% -7  6% 0 - 10 D+ -6 F -20 F F F A +12 A C+ B+
 Fri, Jan 2 304 @Mercyhurst W 74 - 67 30% -0  44% 1 - 10 1 - 0 C+ +2 B- +5 A+ F F C- -2 C- C+ B
 Sun, Jan 4 355 @St. Francis (PA) L 82 - 85 52% +0  46% 1 - 11 1 - 1 F+ -14 C- -2 F C- A+ F -12 D- F D-
 Thu, Jan 8 353 Chicago St. W 70 - 63 72% +9  94% 2 - 11 2 - 1 D -10 F -10 F+ F+ D C +0 F A+ A-
 Sat, Jan 10 334 @New Haven L 55 - 65 40% -10  1% 2 - 12 2 - 2 F -18 F -15 F F B- D+ -5 F C+ D+
 Sat, Jan 17 207 LIU Brooklyn L 59 - 66 31% -2  25% 2 - 13 2 - 3 D- -13 F -13 F F C- C -1 F+ B+ C+
 Mon, Jan 19 331 Wagner W 68 - 61 62% +4  82% 3 - 13 3 - 3 D+ -7 C- -2 D+ A- F D+ -4 C+ B+ F
 Fri, Jan 23 294 @Central Connecticut St. W 76 - 66 28% +4  50% 4 - 13 4 - 3 B- +5 A +12 A D- A- D+ -4 D+ D B-
 Mon, Jan 26 303 Le Moyne L 74 - 87 51% -13  0% 4 - 14 4 - 4 F -24 D+ -3 F A- A+ F -22 F A D+
 Thu, Jan 29 330 @Stonehill L 57 - 58 39% -1  41% 4 - 15 4 - 5 D -9 D- -7 F A C C- -2 C D F
 Sat, Jan 31 331 @Wagner L 72 - 75 OT 39% -1  37% 4 - 16 4 - 6 D -11 D- -7 B+ F D D+ -4 C+ B F
 Thu, Feb 5 330 Stonehill W 74 - 58 62% +10  98% 5 - 16 5 - 6 C+ +2 B- +5 C A C- C -1 B C+ D
 Sat, Feb 7 304 Mercyhurst W 55 - 52 52% +0  37% 6 - 16 6 - 6 D -8 F+ -8 D+ D F C+ +1 C A- F
 Thu, Feb 12 355 St. Francis (PA) W 78 - 71 74%
 Sat, Feb 14 294 Central Connecticut St. L 70 - 71 50%
 Thu, Feb 19 353 @Chicago St. W 72 - 71 50%
 Sat, Feb 21 334 New Haven W 66 - 63 62%
 Thu, Feb 26 303 @Le Moyne L 70 - 76 29%
 Sat, Feb 28 207 @LIU Brooklyn L 65 - 76 14%
Totals 9 - 19 9 - 9 -11 D -6 D D+ D+ D -5 F+ B- D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D C C+ F+ D 33% 18% 49% C D C F+ D+ D+ D D+ D D D D+ F+ F+ 38% 19% 43% C- F+ B- B- B- D+ D+ C D+
1.01 57% 39% 29% -4 0 0.94 31% 0.9 .26 18% .27 70% .19 1.16 64% 41% 39% +6 0 1.15 28% 1.0 .27 16% .34 72% .19
Nov
3		 Iowa St. F C+ F F F 22% 24% 54% C- F D- A+ C D A F B- C F B+ F F 34% 27% 39% A F A+ A+ A+ D A+ C+ A+
0.71 60% 18% 20% -16 -2 0.67 20% 1.4 .28 25% .32 59% .19 1.25 85% 31% 52% +18 -1 1.36 26% 0.3 .09 13% .15 67% .10
Nov
8		 St. Peter's B- A- A+ A A+ 38% 10% 52% B- A+ C- A+ A- F D F F F F A+ F F 37% 19% 44% D+ F B- B- B- D- F D F
1.12 67% 60% 40% +10 +1 1.25 33% 1.5 .48 24% .36 55% .20 1.25 79% 20% 43% +11 0 1.23 32% 0.9 .29 15% .43 78% .33
Nov
12		 Texas F F B F+ F 41% 17% 41% B+ F+ D+ F F B+ F F F C F F A+ D+ 50% 10% 40% F D C A+ A+ D F A+ C
0.79 38% 40% 29% -11 +1 0.81 21% 0.3 .06 12% .20 62% .12 1.27 81% 60% 24% +7 +2 1.21 39% 0.9 .34 12% .53 56% .30
Nov
15		 NJIT D+ C- B F F+ 30% 8% 62% B- D- C+ F D B- C- B- C F F F F F 31% 11% 58% F F C D+ C- A F B+ F
1.05 56% 40% 26% -8 +1 0.89 35% 0.8 .28 13% .34 74% .25 1.21 86% 60% 46% +22 +1 1.47 26% 1.0 .26 23% .64 66% .42
Nov
24		 East Texas A&M F+ B+ D+ C C+ 40% 7% 53% B- B- B F+ C- F C+ F D D F+ A+ F F 29% 17% 54% B- F D+ A- C+ C+ A- A+ A
0.97 65% 33% 35% +3 +2 1.12 37% 0.9 .33 30% .34 56% .19 1.05 67% 11% 43% +5 0 1.12 27% 0.7 .19 19% .17 56% .09
Nov
26		 Army D- C A- F F 29% 17% 54% C- F C+ A+ A A+ A- D- B- F F A+ D F+ 38% 10% 52% C- D- C+ F+ D+ F F D+ F
1.09 60% 44% 18% -11 0 0.79 33% 1.5 .50 9% .41 68% .28 1.21 67% 0% 36% +1 +1 1.06 28% 1.1 .31 12% .56 73% .41
Dec
2		 Providence D- F F A+ D- 42% 12% 46% A- D+ A+ F C F D A+ C- F D+ C- F F 40% 13% 46% C F D+ A- B- C+ A+ D- A+
0.97 29% 17% 48% -5 +1 0.94 46% 0.6 .29 27% .23 82% .19 1.43 67% 43% 58% +21 +1 1.46 38% 1.0 .38 15% .20 82% .16
Dec
10		 Fordham F C C D C- 32% 16% 52% B+ C F F F D F D F D B F F F 41% 15% 43% D- F C- C C B D+ B- C-
0.83 56% 38% 31% -3 0 0.96 17% 0.0 .00 18% .17 67% .11 1.15 53% 57% 45% +8 +1 1.20 36% 0.9 .33 20% .25 69% .17
Dec
22		 Boston College C+ F B- C+ C 26% 20% 54% C- C B F C- A+ F B+ F+ F+ F F B- F 23% 16% 60% C- F+ F C- F+ F+ F A+ F
1.01 38% 40% 33% -5 -1 0.90 32% 0.7 .22 10% .18 70% .13 1.19 70% 71% 31% +5 -1 1.12 38% 1.0 .38 12% .47 56% .26
Dec
29		 Minnesota F A- F F F 21% 21% 57% C- F B F F F B F C- A B- A+ B- A 26% 15% 60% B+ A D+ B+ C+ B+ A+ A+ A+
0.71 67% 11% 25% -12 -1 0.76 33% 0.3 .10 23% .30 57% .17 0.99 58% 14% 32% -5 0 0.91 33% 0.9 .31 20% .25 50% .12
Jan
2		 Mercyhurst B- C A+ A+ A+ 59% 9% 32% A A+ C+ F F F D B- D+ C- D- F A+ C- 35% 28% 37% D C- C B- C+ B F F F
1.16 58% 75% 50% +11 +3 1.30 36% 0.6 .23 23% .33 75% .24 1.05 63% 54% 18% -3 -1 0.93 26% 1.0 .26 19% .38 90% .35
Jan
4		 St. Francis (PA) C- B A+ F F+ 33% 24% 43% F+ F F A+ C- A+ A+ A- A+ F A F D- F+ 22% 24% 53% B- D- B- F F D- F F F
1.14 69% 50% 24% 0 -1 1.00 23% 1.6 .37 13% .52 79% .41 1.18 45% 50% 38% +4 -2 1.06 23% 1.7 .40 15% .49 83% .41
Jan
8		 Chicago St. F B A F+ F+ 24% 10% 67% D+ F+ C- F F+ D A+ D+ A+ C A+ F F D- 40% 11% 49% F F A+ A A+ A- D- F F
1.06 70% 50% 29% -1 0 1.00 34% 0.8 .29 21% .65 74% .48 0.95 39% 60% 41% 0 +1 1.04 10% 0.7 .07 20% .32 82% .26
Jan
10		 New Haven F D F F F 35% 6% 58% B F D+ F F B- A- D B D+ F A- D F 46% 18% 36% F+ F A F C+ D+ F A+ F
0.88 53% 0% 21% -15 +2 0.75 26% 0.6 .17 14% .34 72% .24 1.04 78% 29% 36% +8 +1 1.21 13% 1.3 .17 18% .51 54% .27
Jan
17		 LIU Brooklyn F C C F F 37% 19% 44% D+ F C- F F C- A+ F A- C F B- C F+ 57% 24% 20% D- F+ C- A B+ C+ A A+ A+
0.91 56% 38% 21% -9 0 0.84 33% 0.6 .21 19% .49 58% .29 1.02 69% 36% 33% +6 +1 1.15 37% 0.7 .27 22% .20 50% .10
Jan
19		 Wagner C- F A B C+ 19% 44% 36% F D+ A C A- F A+ B- A+ D+ C- C+ B C- 36% 36% 29% A+ C+ A+ F B+ F D F F
1.17 43% 50% 38% +5 -4 1.03 41% 1.1 .45 24% .57 76% .43 1.05 56% 38% 31% -2 -2 0.93 19% 1.4 .27 14% .32 88% .28
Jan
23		 Central Connecticut St. A A F A+ A 40% 20% 40% D A F C+ D- A- D- B- D D+ A- F B D+ 36% 34% 30% C D+ F B D B- C- F D+
1.29 70% 20% 50% +11 0 1.24 21% 1.0 .21 9% .20 82% .17 1.12 50% 60% 31% +3 -2 1.05 36% 0.9 .32 19% .27 85% .23
Jan
26		 Le Moyne D+ D+ D- F F 40% 13% 46% B- F B A- A- A+ A+ A+ A+ F D+ F F F 44% 10% 46% D- F A+ C+ A D+ F F F
1.11 52% 29% 8% -21 +1 0.62 37% 1.2 .46 8% .50 84% .42 1.31 61% 50% 63% +23 +2 1.51 14% 1.0 .14 18% .51 79% .40
Jan
29		 Stonehill D- F B- F F 36% 34% 30% F F A- B+ A C F A+ F C- A- F A+ C 40% 29% 31% B+ C D- C- D F D+ F D-
0.95 42% 39% 19% -12 -2 0.74 34% 1.2 .42 12% .04 100% .04 0.97 44% 54% 21% -7 -1 0.87 32% 0.9 .29 17% .26 77% .20
Jan
31		 Wagner D- D+ A+ A+ B 52% 9% 39% A- B+ F F F D F F F D+ A A D- B 46% 13% 40% F C+ C+ B B F F F F
1.05 54% 60% 48% +8 +2 1.22 21% 0.4 .09 16% .19 36% .07 1.09 42% 29% 38% -6 +1 0.92 30% 1.0 .30 13% .39 83% .32
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Stonehill B- B- C+ C- C+ 37% 27% 37% D C A- A A C- C+ A+ A- C C B- A+ C+ 26% 35% 40% A+ B A- D- C+ D F A F
1.16 61% 38% 33% +1 -1 1.02 34% 1.3 .44 13% .31 82% .25 0.91 55% 33% 24% -9 -3 0.79 22% 1.0 .22 19% .50 62% .31
Feb
7		 Mercyhurst F+ A+ F F C- 38% 15% 46% C- D+ B F D F D- A+ C C+ D- D A+ C- 24% 39% 37% A- C A- B- A- F B+ C B+
1.01 80% 17% 22% -3 +1 0.97 39% 0.7 .29 24% .32 85% .27 0.96 64% 44% 24% -2 -3 0.91 20% 1.0 .20 11% .15 71% .10



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 2.6 4.6 0.7 7.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.9 10.4 1.9 14.2 3rd
4th 0.5 11.4 6.6 0.1 18.6 4th
5th 0.1 6.2 15.1 0.8 22.2 5th
6th 0.0 2.1 13.2 3.7 19.0 6th
7th 0.5 8.0 5.9 0.2 14.7 7th
8th 1.1 1.9 0.1 3.1 8th
9th 0.4 0.1 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 2.0 12.2 25.8 32.3 20.4 6.6 0.7 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 5.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.7% 16.4% 16.4% 16.0 0.1 0.6
11-5 6.6% 10.5% 10.5% 16.0 0.7 5.9
10-6 20.4% 8.4% 8.4% 16.0 1.7 18.7
9-7 32.3% 6.5% 6.5% 16.0 2.1 30.2
8-8 25.8% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 1.2 24.6
7-9 12.2% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.5 11.7
6-10 2.0% 7.1% 7.1% 16.0 0.1 1.8
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 6.5% 6.5% 0.0% 16.0 93.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 1.1%