East Texas A&M
Southland
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.4 #308
Expected Predictive Rating -5.4 #252
Pace 71.6 #105
Improvement +0.9 #134

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #336 D+ D- D- F C+
Defense #221 D+ D+ C C F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #253 1.14 #195 -1.9 #250
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #253 0.68 #289 -2.0 #283
Three Pointers 47% #61 0.94 #272 +1.4 #135
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #248 -2.5 #247
Freethrows 14.6 #313 66% #342 9.7 #334
Second Chance 25.3% #318 0.97 #280 0.24 #321
Turnovers 18.9% #321
Total Offense -6.8 #336

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #23 1.14 #152 -3.7 #306
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #321 0.75 #156 +1.9 #45
Three Pointers 39% #248 1.12 #310 -0.8 #211
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #263 -2.6 #263
Freethrows 18.4 #236 69% #53 12.7 #197
Second Chance 32.8% #274 1.09 #251 0.36 #274
Turnovers 17.1% #141
Total Defense -1.5 #221

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.6% #148 2.3% #351
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.4% #262 2.7% #228
Possession Length 17.1 #148 16.6 #64
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #230 0.19 #250
Improvement +0.0 #178 +1.0 #119

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.4 16.0
.500 or above 0.7% 1.7% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 3.3% 7.6% 1.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 32.5% 17.2% 39.9%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northwestern St. (Away) - 32.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 31 - 61 - 12
Quad 49 - 810 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 51 @New Mexico L 54 - 76 3% -16  0 - 1 -8 -15 F F F +9 A+ F A+
 Sun, Nov 9 106 @Hawaii L 74 - 100 8% -17  0 - 2 -19 +2 B+ D- D -18 F F C
 Fri, Nov 14 239 @Rice L 64 - 71 25% -2  0 - 3 -8 -7 C- F F -2 F D+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 348 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 70 - 65 54% -5  1 - 3 -4 -4 D+ D- F -1 F F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 333 Army W 84 - 67 59% +10  2 - 3 +6 +5 A F F +2 C B- B-
 Fri, Dec 5 7 @Connecticut L 59 - 83 1% -13  2 - 4 -1 +3 A+ F C- -5 B- C+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 236 Central Arkansas W 75 - 68 45% +1  3 - 4 -0 -6 F B D+ +5 C- A+ C
 Fri, Dec 12 87 @McNeese St. L 66 - 102 5% -26  3 - 5 0 - 1 -26 -11 D+ F F -11 F F A+
 Mon, Dec 15 272 @SE Louisiana W 70 - 69 31% -1  4 - 5 1 - 1 -2 +5 C+ F C+ -7 F B F
 Sun, Dec 21 34 @Texas A&M L 77 - 118 2% -22  4 - 6 -24 -1 F D- B- -17 F F B
 Mon, Dec 29 105 Stephen F. Austin L 48 - 75 18% -6  4 - 7 1 - 2 -26 -18 D+ F F -10 C- D C
 Wed, Dec 31 211 Lamar L 62 - 69 42% +0  4 - 8 1 - 3 -13 -8 F A+ F -6 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 3 232 @Nicholls St. L 58 - 80 24% -12  4 - 9 1 - 4 -23 -19 F F F -3 C D- A-
 Mon, Jan 5 235 @New Orleans L 73 - 83 24% -8  4 - 10 1 - 5 -11 -5 D F C- -6 C A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 218 UT Rio Grande Valley W 77 - 69 42% +9  5 - 10 2 - 5 +2 +7 A+ A+ D -5 F C+ C+
 Mon, Jan 12 186 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 50 - 61 36% -5  5 - 11 2 - 6 -16 -19 F D- D+ +3 B+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 298 @Houston Christian L 70 - 81 36% +3  5 - 12 2 - 7 -16 -6 D- F F -10 F F A
 Mon, Jan 19 223 @Incarnate Word W 80 - 58 23% +11  6 - 12 3 - 7 +21 +20 A+ A+ A+ +5 A+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 24 276 @Northwestern St. L 70 - 75 33%
 Mon, Jan 26 211 @Lamar L 64 - 72 22%
 Sat, Jan 31 232 Nicholls St. L 74 - 75 45%
 Mon, Feb 2 235 New Orleans L 78 - 79 45%
 Sat, Feb 7 276 Northwestern St. W 73 - 72 54%
 Mon, Feb 9 105 @Stephen F. Austin L 61 - 77 7%
 Sat, Feb 14 87 McNeese St. L 66 - 78 13%
 Mon, Feb 16 272 SE Louisiana W 69 - 68 53%
 Sat, Feb 21 223 Incarnate Word L 69 - 71 44%
 Mon, Feb 23 298 Houston Christian W 73 - 71 58%
 Sat, Feb 28 218 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 68 - 76 23%
 Mon, Mar 2 186 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 63 - 73 19%
Totals 10 - 20 7 - 15 -8 -7 D+ D- D- -2 D+ D+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 2.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 2.7 0.6 0.0 4.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 4.2 2.2 0.1 7.0 7th
8th 0.2 4.4 5.0 0.5 10.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 3.7 8.8 1.9 0.1 14.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 4.0 10.6 4.7 0.2 19.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 4.2 10.1 6.2 0.6 0.0 21.6 11th
12th 1.1 4.5 7.5 5.0 0.8 0.0 18.9 12th
Total 1.1 4.9 12.0 19.4 21.6 19.1 12.3 6.3 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.1% 0.1
12-10 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 15.0 0.0 0.7
11-11 2.4% 1.0% 1.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 2.4
10-12 6.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.3
9-13 12.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.3
8-14 19.1% 19.1
7-15 21.6% 21.6
6-16 19.4% 19.4
5-17 12.0% 12.0
4-18 4.9% 4.9
3-19 1.1% 1.1
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.6 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.1%