TX A&M Corpus Christi
Southland
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#186
Expected Predictive Rating-2.3#207
Pace70.7#112
Improvement-0.6#213

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#201
First Shot-0.5#192
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#214
Layup/Dunks+4.5#33
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#119
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#308
Freethrows-1.9#293
Improvement-2.8#322

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#183
First Shot-1.4#221
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#97
Layups/Dunks+0.7#141
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#127
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#200
Freethrows-2.9#344
Improvement+2.3#67
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.8% 10.4% 6.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.4 14.8
.500 or above 91.9% 97.2% 84.7%
.500 or above in Conference 99.3% 100.0% 98.5%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.7% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round8.8% 10.4% 6.6%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stephen F. Austin (Away) - 57.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 32 - 43 - 9
Quad 414 - 417 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 9   @ Purdue L 73-90 3%     0 - 1 +3.4 +5.6 -1.4
  Nov 12, 2024 40   @ New Mexico L 81-100 8%     0 - 2 -4.6 +3.4 -4.9
  Nov 14, 2024 166   @ New Mexico St. L 82-83 36%     0 - 3 +1.5 +6.9 -5.3
  Nov 21, 2024 307   Tennessee Martin W 81-77 82%     1 - 3 -6.9 +2.2 -9.1
  Nov 23, 2024 355   Le Moyne W 82-61 91%     2 - 3 +5.1 +1.3 +4.2
  Nov 30, 2024 348   Prairie View W 109-74 89%     3 - 3 +20.1 +24.0 -5.4
  Dec 05, 2024 218   Lamar L 61-65 67%     3 - 4 0 - 1 -9.7 -10.9 +1.0
  Dec 07, 2024 270   Stephen F. Austin W 67-48 76%     4 - 4 1 - 1 +10.4 +1.8 +10.4
  Dec 14, 2024 180   @ Hawaii L 62-71 39%     4 - 5 -7.4 -5.2 -2.8
  Dec 21, 2024 3   @ Houston L 51-87 2%     4 - 6 -10.8 +0.2 -17.3
  Jan 04, 2025 228   @ SE Louisiana W 80-71 50%     5 - 6 2 - 1 +7.8 +12.0 -3.8
  Jan 06, 2025 351   @ New Orleans W 97-83 80%     6 - 6 3 - 1 +3.6 +10.8 -8.3
  Jan 11, 2025 264   UT Rio Grande Valley W 79-74 75%     7 - 6 4 - 1 -3.3 +9.1 -11.9
  Jan 13, 2025 293   Northwestern St. W 73-64 79%     8 - 6 5 - 1 -0.6 +2.1 -2.1
  Jan 18, 2025 291   @ Incarnate Word W 69-63 63%     9 - 6 6 - 1 +1.4 -11.5 +12.6
  Jan 20, 2025 290   @ Houston Christian L 72-76 62%     9 - 7 6 - 2 -8.6 -5.9 -2.6
  Jan 25, 2025 197   Nicholls St. W 61-57 61%     10 - 7 7 - 2 -0.2 -11.9 +11.9
  Jan 27, 2025 87   McNeese St. L 73-74 30%     10 - 8 7 - 3 +3.1 +4.6 -1.5
  Feb 01, 2025 264   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 73-83 58%     10 - 9 7 - 4 -13.3 -8.0 -4.5
  Feb 03, 2025 343   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 78-66 78%     11 - 9 8 - 4 +2.7 +7.4 -3.9
  Feb 08, 2025 270   @ Stephen F. Austin W 68-66 57%    
  Feb 10, 2025 218   @ Lamar L 70-71 46%    
  Feb 15, 2025 291   Incarnate Word W 77-69 80%    
  Feb 17, 2025 290   Houston Christian W 76-68 79%    
  Feb 22, 2025 87   @ McNeese St. L 66-76 16%    
  Feb 24, 2025 197   @ Nicholls St. L 73-75 40%    
  Mar 01, 2025 228   SE Louisiana W 75-70 69%    
  Mar 03, 2025 351   New Orleans W 84-70 92%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 1st
2nd 0.6 8.5 16.6 7.8 0.8 34.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 6.5 15.1 4.6 0.2 26.6 3rd
4th 0.1 2.6 11.6 4.7 0.2 19.1 4th
5th 0.8 6.2 5.4 0.3 12.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 2.8 0.3 5.1 6th
7th 0.3 0.9 0.2 1.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 0.6 3.7 12.0 24.4 28.6 21.5 8.2 1.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 19.0% 0.2    0.1 0.1
15-5 2.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1
14-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 1.0% 26.0% 26.0% 13.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.7
15-5 8.2% 21.5% 21.5% 14.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.4 6.5
14-6 21.5% 12.7% 12.7% 14.5 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.4 0.1 18.7
13-7 28.6% 7.8% 7.8% 14.8 0.0 0.7 1.3 0.2 26.4
12-8 24.4% 5.8% 5.8% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.4 23.0
11-9 12.0% 3.3% 3.3% 15.3 0.0 0.3 0.1 11.6
10-10 3.7% 1.6% 1.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 3.6
9-11 0.6% 0.6
8-12 0.1% 0.1
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 8.8% 8.8% 0.0% 14.6 0.1 0.8 3.0 4.2 0.8 91.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 13.0 11.5 80.8 7.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%