Xavier
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.4 #81
Expected Predictive Rating +8.3 #75
Pace 73.9 #61
Improvement +2.2 #87

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #90 B D A+ D- D
Defense #76 C A- B- B- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #337 1.28 #63 -2.3 #265
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #127 0.79 #125 +1.3 #107
Three Pointers 46% #77 1.10 #68 +4.5 #42
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #82 +3.4 #82
Freethrows 13.8 #336 73% #167 10.1 #320
Second Chance 28.2% #250 0.95 #300 0.27 #282
Turnovers 11.5% #1
Total Offense +3.7 #90

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #123 1.16 #183 -1.3 #222
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #65 0.74 #142 -1.3 #284
Three Pointers 35% #335 1.00 #165 +3.4 #57
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #154 +0.8 #154
Freethrows 15.9 #106 70% #64 11.1 #91
Second Chance 25.3% #24 0.95 #57 0.24 #24
Turnovers 17.7% #98
Total Defense +3.7 #76

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.6% #290 -0.7% #106
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 8.5% #57 -0.9% #166
Possession Length 15.6 #41 17.6 #238
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 #19 0.14 #72
Improvement +2.3 #67 -0.1 #195

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.4% 10.6% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.7% 9.7% 3.0%
Average Seed 10.4 10.3 10.6
.500 or above 50.3% 72.1% 42.6%
.500 or above in Conference 13.2% 26.8% 8.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 8.1% 2.5% 10.1%
First Four2.7% 5.1% 1.9%
First Round3.8% 7.8% 2.4%
Second Round1.2% 2.5% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. John's (Home) - 26.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 60 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 42 - 10
Quad 25 - 57 - 15
Quad 34 - 111 - 16
Quad 45 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 160 Marist W 66 - 62 84% -1  1 - 0 +1 -0 +1
 Thu, Nov 6 278 Le Moyne W 74 - 69 93% +4  2 - 0 -5 -2 B+ F C- -2 F A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 10 54 Santa Clara L 68 - 87 50% -15  2 - 1 -12 -3 F B- A- -8 C- D C
 Fri, Nov 14 23 @Iowa L 62 - 81 13% -10  2 - 2 +0 -1 F C A+ +2 D A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 240 Old Dominion W 99 - 69 91% +20  3 - 2 +23 +17 A A+ B+ +4 B C+ B+
 Fri, Nov 21 24 Georgia L 77 - 78 21% -4  3 - 3 +15 +8 C C+ A+ +7 A A B-
 Sun, Nov 23 52 West Virginia W 78 - 68 38% +3  4 - 3 +21 +14 A+ F A- +7 A+ A+ C+
 Fri, Nov 28 186 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 88 - 67 87% +12  5 - 3 +16 +11 B F A+ +4 B A+ F
 Mon, Dec 1 358 St. Francis (PA) W 96 - 74 98% +13  6 - 3 +4 +6 D D A+ -4 D B- C+
 Fri, Dec 5 49 Cincinnati W 79 - 74 48% +4  7 - 3 +13 +11 A F A+ +2 A+ F F
 Fri, Dec 12 179 Missouri St. W 75 - 57 86% +7  8 - 3 +14 +7 B F A+ +8 A- A+ A
 Wed, Dec 17 44 Creighton L 57 - 98 46% -21  8 - 4 0 - 1 -33 -17 F F F -13 F A+ A-
 Sat, Dec 20 93 @Georgetown W 80 - 77 45% -2  9 - 4 1 - 1 +12 +6 B+ D- D- +5 C A+ C
 Wed, Dec 31 7 Connecticut L 67 - 90 17% -18  9 - 5 1 - 2 -6 +2 B+ F A+ -6 D- B A-
 Sat, Jan 3 99 @DePaul L 77 - 86 46% -3  9 - 6 1 - 3 -1 +12 A C- A+ -13 F C D+
 Wed, Jan 7 102 @Marquette L 65 - 66 49% -5  9 - 7 1 - 4 +7 -4 C F F +11 A+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 65 Providence W 97 - 84 57% +11  10 - 7 2 - 4 +18 +11 A F A+ +6 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 59 Butler W 89 - 75 53% +11  11 - 7 3 - 4 +21 +15 A+ A+ A+ +5 A+ B- B
 Wed, Jan 21 44 @Creighton L 93 - 94 25% -1  11 - 8 3 - 5 +13 +22 A+ C A- -8 F A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 24 18 St. John's L 76 - 83 26%
 Wed, Jan 28 56 @Seton Hall L 67 - 73 29%
 Sat, Jan 31 99 DePaul W 77 - 72 68%
 Tue, Feb 3 7 @Connecticut L 65 - 81 7%
 Mon, Feb 9 18 @St. John's L 73 - 86 12%
 Sat, Feb 14 102 Marquette W 82 - 76 70%
 Tue, Feb 17 33 Villanova L 71 - 75 36%
 Sat, Feb 21 59 @Butler L 79 - 84 32%
 Tue, Feb 24 65 @Providence L 85 - 89 35%
 Sat, Feb 28 93 Georgetown W 79 - 74 67%
 Tue, Mar 3 56 Seton Hall W 70 - 69 51%
 Sat, Mar 7 33 @Villanova L 68 - 78 19%
Totals 16 - 15 8 - 12 +7 +4 B D A+ +4 C A- B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.5 0.5 0.0 3.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.1 4.4 1.6 0.1 9.5 5th
6th 0.5 5.2 7.6 2.5 0.2 0.0 16.1 6th
7th 0.5 6.0 10.5 3.9 0.3 21.1 7th
8th 0.4 5.6 11.4 4.4 0.3 22.1 8th
9th 0.2 3.1 8.4 3.9 0.4 15.9 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 4.2 2.5 0.2 8.2 10th
11th 0.3 1.5 1.0 0.1 2.9 11th
Total 0.4 2.8 8.8 17.1 21.9 20.8 15.1 8.3 3.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 84.4% 84.4% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 84.4%
12-8 1.0% 67.0% 2.4% 64.6% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 66.2%
11-9 3.6% 45.0% 1.7% 43.4% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.6 2.0 44.1%
10-10 8.3% 22.9% 2.0% 20.9% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 0.0 6.4 21.3%
9-11 15.1% 4.4% 1.1% 3.3% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 14.4 3.4%
8-12 20.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 20.6 0.3%
7-13 21.9% 0.3% 0.3% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.9
6-14 17.1% 0.4% 0.4% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.0
5-15 8.8% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 8.8
4-16 2.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.8
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.4% 0.7% 4.7% 10.4 94.6 4.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%