Xavier
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.8#39
Expected Predictive Rating+12.7#45
Pace71.7#76
Improvement+4.1#31

Offense
Total Offense+6.0#53
First Shot+6.6#38
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#227
Layup/Dunks+3.0#78
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#276
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#101
Freethrows+3.0#36
Improvement+1.3#124

Defense
Total Defense+6.9#31
First Shot+5.7#37
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#82
Layups/Dunks+0.6#148
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#91
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#43
Freethrows+0.4#157
Improvement+2.8#53
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 1.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 62.5% 83.4% 48.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 59.6% 79.7% 48.6%
Average Seed 10.1 9.5 10.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four26.3% 15.8% 33.3%
First Round50.1% 75.9% 32.8%
Second Round20.6% 33.2% 12.1%
Sweet Sixteen5.3% 7.8% 3.6%
Elite Eight1.5% 2.4% 0.9%
Final Four0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 52 - 9
Quad 28 - 210 - 11
Quad 35 - 015 - 11
Quad 47 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 279   Texas Southern W 78-69 97%     1 - 0 -0.4 +2.0 -2.7
  Nov 08, 2024 318   IU Indianapolis W 94-80 98%     2 - 0 +1.8 +12.4 -10.1
  Nov 12, 2024 269   Jackson St. W 94-57 97%     3 - 0 +28.3 +14.8 +12.0
  Nov 16, 2024 61   Wake Forest W 75-60 73%     4 - 0 +21.5 +11.7 +10.7
  Nov 20, 2024 251   Siena W 80-55 96%     5 - 0 +17.4 +8.1 +10.6
  Nov 25, 2024 68   South Carolina W 75-66 68%     6 - 0 +17.0 +6.2 +10.6
  Nov 27, 2024 30   Michigan L 53-78 45%     6 - 1 -10.8 -12.6 +2.1
  Dec 01, 2024 193   South Carolina St. W 71-68 94%     7 - 1 -1.4 -4.7 +3.2
  Dec 05, 2024 74   @ TCU L 72-76 60%     7 - 2 +6.3 +10.9 -4.9
  Dec 10, 2024 333   Morgan St. W 119-58 98%     8 - 2 +47.2 +30.7 +13.3
  Dec 14, 2024 49   @ Cincinnati L 65-68 46%     8 - 3 +10.8 +1.6 +9.2
  Dec 18, 2024 28   @ Connecticut L 89-94 OT 33%     8 - 4 0 - 1 +12.2 +19.6 -7.2
  Dec 21, 2024 25   Marquette L 70-72 51%     8 - 5 0 - 2 +10.6 +4.3 +6.2
  Dec 31, 2024 166   Seton Hall W 94-72 92%     9 - 5 1 - 2 +18.8 +24.0 -5.1
  Jan 03, 2025 81   @ Georgetown L 63-69 62%     9 - 6 1 - 3 +3.7 -3.2 +6.9
  Jan 07, 2025 13   St. John's L 72-82 41%     9 - 7 1 - 4 +5.0 +4.8 +1.0
  Jan 11, 2025 116   @ DePaul W 77-63 75%     10 - 7 2 - 4 +19.9 +8.9 +11.5
  Jan 14, 2025 45   Villanova W 69-63 66%     11 - 7 3 - 4 +14.7 +3.8 +11.5
  Jan 18, 2025 25   @ Marquette W 59-57 31%     12 - 7 4 - 4 +20.1 -1.9 +22.0
  Jan 22, 2025 13   @ St. John's L 71-79 OT 23%     12 - 8 4 - 5 +12.5 +7.8 +5.2
  Jan 25, 2025 28   Connecticut W 76-72 54%     13 - 8 5 - 5 +15.7 +9.4 +6.6
  Jan 29, 2025 32   @ Creighton L 77-86 36%     13 - 9 5 - 6 +7.6 +14.4 -7.1
  Feb 04, 2025 81   Georgetown W 74-69 79%     14 - 9 6 - 6 +9.2 +4.3 +4.9
  Feb 09, 2025 45   @ Villanova L 68-80 45%     14 - 10 6 - 7 +2.2 +5.7 -4.6
  Feb 12, 2025 88   @ Providence W 91-82 66%     15 - 10 7 - 7 +17.7 +16.5 +0.7
  Feb 15, 2025 116   DePaul W 85-68 87%     16 - 10 8 - 7 +17.4 +13.4 +4.3
  Feb 18, 2025 72   Butler W 76-63 77%     17 - 10 9 - 7 +18.0 -5.1 +21.8
  Feb 23, 2025 166   @ Seton Hall W 73-66 84%     18 - 10 10 - 7 +9.3 +4.2 +5.0
  Mar 01, 2025 32   Creighton W 83-61 57%     19 - 10 11 - 7 +33.1 +21.1 +13.5
  Mar 05, 2025 72   @ Butler W 91-78 59%     20 - 10 12 - 7 +23.5 +19.1 +4.3
  Mar 08, 2025 88   Providence W 76-68 82%     21 - 10 13 - 7 +11.2 +5.5 +5.9
  Mar 13, 2025 25   Marquette L 73-75 40%    
Projected Record 21 - 11 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 100.0 100.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 100.0% 62.5% 7.2% 55.3% 10.1 0.1 0.5 1.7 4.1 8.7 18.4 27.3 1.9 37.5 59.6%
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 62.5% 7.2% 55.3% 10.1 0.1 0.5 1.7 4.1 8.7 18.4 27.3 1.9 37.5 59.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.2% 100.0% 8.1 1.2 6.1 21.5 34.8 28.4 7.3 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 7.7% 89.8% 9.5 0.3 1.3 10.8 31.4 34.4 11.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 25.1% 76.7% 10.1 0.2 2.7 13.1 34.5 25.6 0.6
Lose Out 60.0% 48.6% 10.8 0.1 1.5 11.0 33.2 2.9