Xavier
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +6.7 83
Expected Predictive Rating +7.6 77
Pace 74.6 39
Improvement +0.5 166

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- #91 B- D+ A D D
Defense B- #82 C A- C+ B- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% 348 64% 58 -2.9 286
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 102 39% 136 +1.7 89
Three Pointers 45% 90 36% 81 +3.8 60
1st FG Attempt 1.07 97 +2.6 98
Second Chance 26.9% 282 0.98 243 0.26 278
Turnovers 12.3% 7
Freethrows 0.25 327 71% 218 0.18 326
Total Offense +3.2 91

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 122 58% 188 -1.5 231
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 51 39% 221 -2.1 328
Three Pointers 34% 346 34% 188 +3.6 46
1st FG Attempt 1.02 175 +0.0 177
Second Chance 26.6% 53 0.84 9 0.22 17
Turnovers 17.9% 120
Freethrows 0.28 115 69% 36 0.20 83
Total Defense +3.4 82

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -1.0 310 -0.4 97
Shot Type Accuracy +3.7 67 +0.4 201
Possession Length 15.3 27 17.9 274
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 33 0.16 126
Improvement +1.2 #120 -0.7 #237

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 1% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 11.5 11.3 12.1
.500 or above 32% 42% 14%
.500 or above in Conference 3% 4% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 28% 13% 51%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round1% 1% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Marquette (Home) - 61.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 50 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 51 - 10
Quad 25 - 66 - 15
Quad 34 - 210 - 17
Quad 45 - 015 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 163 Marist W 66 - 62 83% +4  55% 1 - 0 C +1 D+ -3 F C- B+ B +4 F+ A- A+
 Thu, Nov 6 303 Le Moyne W 74 - 69 94% +4  74% 2 - 0 D+ -6 D -6 B F D+ C -0 F A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 10 44 Santa Clara L 68 - 87 41% -15  0% 2 - 1 D -10 D- -6 F B B+ C- -3 C+ F+ C
 Fri, Nov 14 25 @Iowa L 62 - 81 13% -10  9% 2 - 2 C -0 D -6 F+ C- A+ B +6 D+ A+ A
 Tue, Nov 18 253 Old Dominion W 99 - 69 91% +20  92% 3 - 2 A +22 A +14 B A+ B B+ +6 B C+ B+
 Fri, Nov 21 36 Georgia L 77 - 78 23% -4  23% 3 - 3 B+ +13 B- +4 C C+ A+ A- +9 A- B+ C+
 Sun, Nov 23 56 West Virginia W 78 - 68 37% +3  67% 4 - 3 A +20 A +13 A+ D- A- B+ +8 A- A C
 Fri, Nov 28 198 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 88 - 67 87% +12  84% 5 - 3 A- +15 B+ +7 B- D- A+ B+ +7 B+ A F+
 Mon, Dec 1 355 St. Francis (PA) W 96 - 74 98% +13  94% 6 - 3 C+ +5 C+ +2 D D A+ C+ +1 C- C+ C+
 Fri, Dec 5 45 Cincinnati W 79 - 74 42% +4  75% 7 - 3 B+ +14 B+ +9 A- F A+ B +5 A+ D F+
 Fri, Dec 12 179 Missouri St. W 75 - 57 84% +7  69% 8 - 3 B+ +14 B- +5 B D- A+ A +10 B+ A+ B+
 Wed, Dec 17 61 Creighton L 57 - 98 54% -21  5% 8 - 4 0 - 1 F -35 F -21 F+ F D- F -12 F A B-
 Sat, Dec 20 76 @Georgetown W 80 - 77 35% -2  20% 9 - 4 1 - 1 B+ +14 B- +5 B+ D+ D+ A- +8 C+ A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 31 7 Connecticut L 67 - 90 15% -18  0% 9 - 5 1 - 2 D+ -5 C- -2 B F A C- -3 D- B+ B+
 Sat, Jan 3 98 @DePaul L 77 - 86 44% -3  5% 9 - 6 1 - 3 C -1 A- +9 B+ C A+ F+ -10 D- B- D
 Wed, Jan 7 85 @Marquette L 65 - 66 39% -5  3% 9 - 7 1 - 4 B +9 D -5 C F D A+ +14 A+ F+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 60 Providence W 97 - 84 53% +11  97% 10 - 7 2 - 4 A +19 B+ +7 B+ D A+ A +10 A A+ D-
 Wed, Jan 14 75 Butler W 89 - 75 58% +11  99% 11 - 7 3 - 4 A +19 A- +11 B- A A B+ +7 A C- B+
 Wed, Jan 21 61 @Creighton L 93 - 94 31% -1  21% 11 - 8 3 - 5 B +11 A+ +18 A+ C- A- D -7 F A+ D
 Sat, Jan 24 20 St. John's L 83 - 88 22% +3  59% 11 - 9 3 - 6 B +10 B+ +8 A+ F A+ B- +2 C+ B C-
 Wed, Jan 28 53 @Seton Hall L 68 - 86 26% +2  57% 11 - 10 3 - 7 C- -5 C +1 B B- D D+ -5 C C+ D+
 Sat, Jan 31 98 DePaul W 68 - 66 67% -7  2% 12 - 10 4 - 7 C+ +4 C+ +2 A- F A- C+ +2 D+ B+ C
 Tue, Feb 3 7 @Connecticut L 60 - 92 6% -23  0% 12 - 11 4 - 8 D -8 C- -2 C+ D C+ D -7 F A+ B
 Mon, Feb 9 20 @St. John's L 82 - 87 OT 10% -0  32% 12 - 12 4 - 9 A- +16 B- +4 C C+ A+ A +12 C+ A+ D+
 Sat, Feb 14 85 Marquette W 80 - 77 62%
 Tue, Feb 17 32 Villanova L 71 - 76 33%
 Sat, Feb 21 75 @Butler L 78 - 82 35%
 Tue, Feb 24 60 @Providence L 85 - 90 31%
 Sat, Feb 28 76 Georgetown W 77 - 75 58%
 Tue, Mar 3 53 Seton Hall L 70 - 71 48%
 Sat, Mar 7 32 @Villanova L 68 - 79 16%
Totals 15 - 16 7 - 13 +7 B- +3 B- D+ A B- +3 C A- C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- B C+ B- B 30% 24% 45% D B- D+ C- D+ A D- C- D B- C C- C C 41% 25% 34% B- C B A A- C+ C+ B+ B-
1.13 64% 39% 36% +4 -1 1.07 27% 1.0 .26 12% .25 71% .18 1.04 58% 39% 34% 0 0 1.02 27% 0.8 .22 18% .28 69% .18
Nov
3		 Marist D+ A F F F+ 16% 29% 56% F F C D+ C- B+ A+ C+ A+ B F F+ B- F 31% 44% 26% A+ F+ C+ A+ A- A+ F A+ F
0.98 71% 23% 24% -10 -3 0.76 31% 0.9 .28 16% .57 72% .41 0.92 75% 47% 30% +8 -4 1.10 24% 0.8 .20 27% .50 68% .34
Nov
6		 Le Moyne D D F A+ B+ 31% 25% 44% D- B D- F F D+ D- D- F+ C F D F F 45% 14% 41% D+ F A- A+ A+ A+ A A+ A+
1.08 50% 23% 52% +6 -1 1.12 26% 0.6 .16 16% .28 69% .19 1.01 73% 43% 40% +11 +1 1.27 19% 0.0 .00 26% .24 58% .14
Nov
10		 Santa Clara D- B- F F F 39% 35% 26% F F C A B B+ A+ C+ A+ C- C F B+ C 52% 30% 18% B C+ C F F+ C D C+ D+
0.95 61% 13% 8% -18 -2 0.63 30% 1.2 .37 18% .58 74% .43 1.21 62% 53% 30% +6 0 1.13 38% 1.3 .50 15% .28 71% .20
Nov
14		 Iowa D C+ A+ F F 28% 11% 60% B- F+ F A+ C- A+ F+ F F B F A B- D 54% 26% 20% C+ D+ C+ A+ A+ A F B- F
0.88 60% 50% 22% -9 0 0.85 18% 1.3 .23 17% .24 57% .14 1.15 84% 33% 33% +13 0 1.28 32% 0.5 .16 20% .48 74% .36
Nov
18		 Old Dominion A C+ C+ A B+ 29% 15% 56% C- B A+ A- A+ B C+ D C B+ D- B+ A+ B 37% 31% 31% C+ B C+ B- C+ B+ C- A- C+
1.33 63% 38% 39% +5 0 1.13 50% 1.2 .61 12% .37 71% .26 0.93 65% 29% 24% -5 -1 0.89 24% 1.0 .24 19% .30 67% .20
Nov
21		 Georgia B- D+ C C- C+ 25% 29% 45% F C C B- C+ A+ B F+ C+ A- F A- A B+ 28% 26% 46% A+ A- A+ D- B+ C+ B B- B+
1.06 50% 38% 32% -3 -2 0.91 31% 1.0 .31 11% .29 63% .19 1.07 75% 33% 27% -1 -1 0.96 27% 1.2 .32 15% .29 72% .21
Nov
23		 West Virginia A D+ F A+ A+ 20% 33% 47% F A+ F A D- A- D+ A+ B B+ D B A- B 27% 33% 40% A+ A- A+ D A C A- F C+
1.15 50% 18% 63% +12 -3 1.20 13% 1.3 .17 15% .21 100% .21 1.00 64% 35% 29% -2 -2 0.92 21% 1.3 .26 16% .26 80% .21
Nov
28		 TX A&M Corpus Christi B+ D+ F A+ B 36% 20% 44% C- B- D F D- A+ D- F F B+ B B- A+ B+ 48% 30% 22% B- B+ B A+ A F+ B A+ A-
1.17 55% 25% 44% +3 0 1.08 25% 0.8 .20 7% .34 58% .20 0.89 48% 33% 23% -10 0 0.82 26% 0.6 .16 13% .31 55% .17
Dec
1		 St. Francis (PA) C+ B A+ F D 43% 12% 46% C+ D C F+ D A+ F D- F C+ C B+ D+ C- 37% 25% 39% C- C- A+ F C+ C+ C+ F D+
1.24 69% 50% 29% +3 +1 1.10 33% 1.0 .33 10% .22 67% .14 0.95 57% 29% 36% -1 -1 0.98 17% 1.3 .23 19% .24 80% .19
Dec
5		 Cincinnati B+ A A+ F A 28% 30% 43% D- A- F F F A+ A- F C+ B A+ A- A A+ 32% 23% 46% B- A+ C+ F+ D F+ D- A+ B-
1.07 65% 67% 23% +3 -2 1.05 12% 0.8 .10 5% .33 57% .19 1.00 44% 31% 27% -11 -1 0.79 32% 1.2 .38 12% .34 50% .17
Dec
12		 Missouri St. B- D F A+ B- 30% 21% 49% B+ B C F D- A+ F F F A C A+ A A 52% 24% 24% F B+ B- A+ A+ B+ B+ F C-
1.18 56% 27% 46% +6 -1 1.13 33% 0.8 .26 9% .21 58% .12 0.90 63% 9% 27% -7 +1 0.89 29% 0.6 .18 21% .30 80% .24
Dec
17		 Creighton F D B- F D- 24% 34% 41% F F+ F+ F F D- F F F F F F F F 37% 12% 52% D F B+ A A B- A+ A+ A+
0.77 50% 40% 25% -7 -3 0.83 20% 0.7 .13 19% .10 50% .05 1.33 77% 57% 48% +21 +1 1.45 24% 0.8 .20 16% .16 60% .10
Dec
20		 Georgetown B- C+ A+ C A- 31% 34% 36% D B+ A- F D+ D+ D- A- D+ A- A+ F F C+ 48% 29% 23% C C+ A- A+ A+ C- F A+ F
1.07 56% 55% 33% +5 -2 1.07 37% 0.6 .24 19% .23 79% .18 1.03 39% 50% 45% -2 0 0.98 28% 0.7 .19 13% .67 58% .39
Dec
31		 Connecticut C- A+ F F B+ 38% 28% 34% D+ B F D F A B- D+ C C- C+ C- F F+ 36% 16% 47% B- D- B+ C+ B+ B+ A- F B-
0.92 70% 27% 22% -5 -1 0.91 14% 0.8 .11 15% .36 68% .24 1.24 60% 44% 50% +13 0 1.29 32% 1.1 .35 19% .24 79% .19
Jan
3		 DePaul A- C- A+ B+ B+ 31% 22% 47% C B+ B+ F+ C A+ F C+ F+ F+ C F C- F+ 32% 19% 49% C D- C+ B- B- D F F F
1.12 53% 50% 38% +4 -1 1.09 36% 0.7 .26 12% .23 71% .16 1.25 60% 67% 35% +7 0 1.15 30% 1.1 .33 15% .53 81% .43
Jan
7		 Marquette D F C- A+ C+ 28% 30% 42% F C D F F D C- D+ C- A+ B+ B A+ A+ 54% 12% 35% C A+ F B- F+ A+ C- A+ A-
0.92 43% 33% 43% 0 -2 0.98 26% 0.6 .16 23% .26 71% .18 0.93 50% 33% 22% -11 +2 0.85 44% 0.9 .40 21% .32 50% .16
Jan
10		 Providence B+ C+ B A A- 38% 20% 42% C+ B+ F A+ D A+ F C+ F+ A F+ C- A+ A 33% 22% 44% A A A+ D A+ D- B+ A+ A
1.21 58% 43% 41% +6 0 1.13 15% 1.3 .21 5% .20 73% .14 1.05 71% 43% 25% 0 -1 1.00 20% 1.3 .25 11% .30 67% .20
Jan
14		 Butler A- A+ D D B 41% 21% 38% C+ B- A B- A A D+ A+ C B+ B+ F A+ A 39% 16% 45% B- A A+ F C- B+ B F C+
1.22 72% 31% 30% +2 0 1.07 39% 1.0 .39 12% .19 83% .16 1.03 50% 50% 26% -7 +1 0.90 26% 1.7 .43 18% .32 79% .25
Jan
21		 Creighton A+ A+ A A+ A+ 31% 32% 37% D A+ F+ A+ C- A- F A+ D D D+ A+ F F 43% 14% 43% D- F A+ A+ A+ D F B F
1.28 83% 47% 45% +17 -2 1.32 21% 1.3 .28 12% .13 88% .11 1.29 67% 25% 54% +15 +1 1.34 20% 0.7 .13 12% .38 71% .27
Jan
24		 St. John's B+ C B+ A+ A+ 38% 29% 34% D A+ F D- F A+ C+ A+ B+ B- B D- D C- 40% 32% 28% A+ C+ A- C- B C- B A A
1.09 52% 44% 47% +6 -1 1.13 16% 0.8 .13 16% .29 84% .25 1.15 52% 44% 38% +1 -1 1.02 33% 1.2 .40 13% .35 65% .23
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Seton Hall C A+ A D- A- 25% 21% 54% D- B D+ A+ B- D F A F D+ A+ F F C+ 64% 18% 18% F C F A+ C+ D+ F D+ F
0.94 69% 45% 29% 0 -1 1.00 26% 1.3 .32 26% .19 80% .15 1.19 43% 60% 40% -4 +2 0.98 49% 0.7 .35 14% .45 75% .34
Jan
31		 DePaul C+ A- A+ B A+ 24% 40% 36% F A- F D F A- B A+ A C+ B- F C D 34% 26% 40% B D+ A D B+ C A+ A+ A+
1.07 64% 50% 38% +8 -3 1.11 17% 0.8 .14 16% .35 84% .30 1.04 56% 57% 33% +4 -1 1.08 23% 1.3 .29 17% .02 0% .00
Feb
3		 Connecticut C- B- F A B 26% 36% 38% F C+ D+ F+ D C+ A+ F A+ D F D- F F 48% 12% 40% D F D- A+ A+ B C- F+ D
0.88 55% 20% 38% -5 -3 0.86 22% 0.8 .16 19% .51 64% .32 1.34 83% 50% 45% +20 +2 1.46 43% 0.5 .21 19% .32 78% .25
Feb
9		 St. John's B- F A+ D+ C+ 45% 35% 20% D- C D- A+ C+ A+ D- F F A D A+ A C+ 57% 22% 20% C+ C+ A A+ A+ D+ F B+ F
0.99 40% 52% 31% -4 -1 0.91 22% 1.3 .29 11% .23 53% .12 1.05 65% 25% 27% -1 +1 1.02 30% 0.4 .12 12% .56 68% .38



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 0.2 1.9 1.7 0.1 3.9 4th
5th 0.0 2.8 3.8 0.6 7.2 5th
6th 2.1 11.0 2.3 0.0 15.4 6th
7th 0.2 11.6 4.9 0.1 16.8 7th
8th 0.0 3.9 11.8 0.4 16.1 8th
9th 0.5 11.9 3.3 0.0 15.7 9th
10th 5.2 8.1 0.3 13.6 10th
11th 3.0 7.2 1.0 11.2 11th
Total 3.0 13.0 25.1 29.0 19.2 8.2 2.3 0.2 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1
10-10 2.3% 7.3% 1.3% 6.0% 10.9 0.0 0.2 2.2 6.1%
9-11 8.2% 2.2% 1.5% 0.7% 11.0 0.2 8.0 0.7%
8-12 19.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 11.2 0.1 0.0 19.1 0.1%
7-13 29.0% 0.4% 0.4% 12.1 0.1 0.0 28.9
6-14 25.1% 0.3% 0.3% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.1
5-15 13.0% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 13.0
4-16 3.0% 3.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 11.5 99.3 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.9%