St. Francis (PA)
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -14.7 #358
Expected Predictive Rating -13.4 #343
Pace 71.8 #100
Improvement +3.3 #42

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #351 D- D D F D-
Defense #345 F D- B- D+ D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #324 1.07 #281 -4.9 #332
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #76 0.66 #309 +0.8 #127
Three Pointers 42% #170 0.96 #254 -0.9 #208
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #320 -5.0 #321
Freethrows 11.7 #362 70% #253 8.3 #362
Second Chance 25.8% #306 1.00 #248 0.26 #305
Turnovers 18.2% #289
Total Offense -8.1 #351

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #118 1.34 #352 -5.3 #341
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #327 0.81 #271 +1.8 #61
Three Pointers 44% #103 1.17 #348 -4.9 #341
1st FG Attempt 1.19 #361 -8.4 #361
Freethrows 18.7 #256 73% #190 13.6 #257
Second Chance 32.9% #280 1.18 #328 0.39 #325
Turnovers 17.7% #93
Total Defense -6.6 #345

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.2% #316 1.7% #328
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.7% #301 14.8% #359
Possession Length 17.9 #231 16.1 #20
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #250 0.22 #317
Improvement +2.7 #45 +0.6 #145

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 2.0% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 25.6% 34.8% 12.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 17.9% 6.9% 34.1%
First Four1.8% 2.0% 1.4%
First Round0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chicago St. (Home) - 59.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 30 - 30 - 9
Quad 47 - 147 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 57 @Oklahoma L 66 - 102 1% -11  0 - 1 -23 -6 D- D F -15 F F B-
 Thu, Nov 6 45 @TCU L 63 - 104 1% -23  0 - 2 -27 -7 C F C -16 F F A
 Tue, Nov 11 288 Mount St. Mary's L 66 - 74 33% -5  0 - 3 -18 -8 F F D- -10 F B B
 Tue, Nov 18 307 @Lehigh L 62 - 79 19% -9  0 - 4 -22 -16 F C F -6 F F A-
 Mon, Nov 24 82 Belmont L 57 - 94 3% -16  0 - 5 -30 -15 F F F -14 F C- C
 Wed, Nov 26 112 Troy L 64 - 74 6% +2  0 - 6 -7 -11 C- F F +4 C C A+
 Mon, Dec 1 81 @Xavier L 74 - 96 2% -13  0 - 7 -12 -1 C C D+ -9 C- D- D+
 Sun, Dec 7 253 @Radford L 56 - 89 12% -17  0 - 8 -35 -20 F F F -16 F F C
 Sun, Dec 14 140 @Temple L 67 - 95 5% -17  0 - 9 -24 -4 D+ C F -20 F A C
 Wed, Dec 17 10 @Florida L 61 - 102 0% -25  0 - 10 -18 -2 C C- C- -14 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 200 Robert Morris L 70 - 79 19% -2  0 - 11 -15 -0 D+ A A+ -15 F A+ C
 Fri, Jan 2 278 Le Moyne L 58 - 84 31% -9  0 - 12 0 - 1 -36 -17 F F C -19 F F B+
 Sun, Jan 4 348 Fairleigh Dickinson W 85 - 82 52% -0  1 - 12 1 - 1 -12 +3 F A+ B- -15 F F F
 Thu, Jan 8 326 @Wagner W 71 - 69 24% -1  2 - 12 2 - 1 -5 -2 C C- F -4 C D B-
 Sat, Jan 10 222 @LIU Brooklyn L 63 - 67 10% -1  2 - 13 2 - 2 -5 -11 C F F +6 A+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 277 Central Connecticut St. L 90 - 98 31% -7  2 - 14 2 - 3 -18 +13 C B A+ -31 F B+ F
 Mon, Jan 19 339 Stonehill W 63 - 61 48% -3  3 - 14 3 - 3 -12 -10 F C- B- -2 F C A+
 Fri, Jan 23 357 Chicago St. W 75 - 73 60%
 Sun, Jan 25 331 @New Haven L 64 - 71 26%
 Thu, Jan 29 357 @Chicago St. L 72 - 76 37%
 Sat, Jan 31 331 New Haven L 67 - 68 46%
 Thu, Feb 5 306 @Mercyhurst L 64 - 73 19%
 Sat, Feb 7 278 @Le Moyne L 71 - 82 15%
 Thu, Feb 12 348 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 71 - 76 31%
 Thu, Feb 19 222 LIU Brooklyn L 71 - 79 22%
 Sat, Feb 21 326 Wagner L 73 - 74 44%
 Thu, Feb 26 339 @Stonehill L 66 - 72 28%
 Sat, Feb 28 277 @Central Connecticut St. L 69 - 80 15%
Totals 6 - 22 6 - 11 -15 -8 D- D D -7 F D- B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 1.5 3rd
4th 0.3 1.8 1.6 0.2 3.9 4th
5th 0.3 3.3 3.4 0.6 0.0 7.6 5th
6th 0.3 4.0 6.6 1.6 0.0 12.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 4.9 9.4 3.6 0.2 18.6 7th
8th 0.6 5.7 11.8 5.8 0.5 24.4 8th
9th 0.4 5.0 10.7 5.6 0.7 22.3 9th
10th 2.1 4.4 2.1 0.3 8.8 10th
Total 2.5 9.9 19.0 22.9 20.1 14.2 7.2 3.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 50.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-4 12.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-5 1.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.0% 0.0
12-4 0.2% 15.2% 15.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1
11-5 0.8% 7.1% 7.1% 16.0 0.1 0.8
10-6 3.1% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.1 2.9
9-7 7.2% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.2 7.0
8-8 14.2% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.3 13.9
7-9 20.1% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.4 19.8
6-10 22.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.3 22.6
5-11 19.0% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 18.8
4-12 9.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 9.8
3-13 2.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.5
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 16.0 98.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.1%