St. Francis (PA)
Northeast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.8#326
Expected Predictive Rating-8.9#310
Pace67.7#192
Improvement+0.4#180

Offense
Total Offense-4.4#292
First Shot-1.7#228
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#326
Layup/Dunks-3.4#301
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#83
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#76
Freethrows-3.3#349
Improvement+1.4#115

Defense
Total Defense-5.5#324
First Shot-4.8#320
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#245
Layups/Dunks+0.6#146
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#271
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.1#353
Freethrows+1.6#77
Improvement-1.0#242
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.2% 100.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% n/a 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four22.2% 100.0% 0.0%
First Round8.2% 36.9% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 31 - 41 - 9
Quad 411 - 912 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 74   @ Dayton L 57-87 4%     0 - 1 -19.8 -13.3 -6.2
  Nov 08, 2024 21   @ Clemson L 62-88 1%     0 - 2 -6.8 -3.5 -2.7
  Nov 10, 2024 220   @ Campbell W 65-64 19%     1 - 2 +0.5 -4.6 +5.2
  Nov 12, 2024 58   @ Penn St. L 62-92 3%     1 - 3 -17.3 -13.3 +0.0
  Nov 16, 2024 259   @ Mount St. Mary's L 58-66 24%     1 - 4 -10.6 -12.7 +1.8
  Nov 23, 2024 81   @ Georgetown L 65-82 5%     1 - 5 -7.3 -2.4 -4.7
  Nov 26, 2024 280   Lehigh W 88-78 49%     2 - 5 +0.5 +12.2 -11.6
  Dec 01, 2024 169   Radford L 70-79 26%     2 - 6 -12.3 +0.4 -13.6
  Dec 14, 2024 311   @ Niagara L 66-69 36%     2 - 7 -9.3 -3.5 -6.1
  Dec 17, 2024 11   @ Maryland L 57-111 1%     2 - 8 -33.0 -4.7 -27.4
  Dec 21, 2024 146   @ Robert Morris L 77-90 11%     2 - 9 -9.3 +2.5 -11.1
  Jan 03, 2025 197   Central Connecticut St. L 59-74 31%     2 - 10 0 - 1 -19.7 -8.2 -12.7
  Jan 05, 2025 331   Stonehill L 60-64 64%     2 - 11 0 - 2 -17.4 -13.5 -4.4
  Jan 10, 2025 342   Mercyhurst W 73-59 69%     3 - 11 1 - 2 -0.9 +3.3 -2.1
  Jan 12, 2025 314   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 75-71 37%     4 - 11 2 - 2 -2.4 +1.8 -4.1
  Jan 18, 2025 301   @ LIU Brooklyn L 51-64 33%     4 - 12 2 - 3 -18.3 -12.2 -7.9
  Jan 20, 2025 345   @ Wagner L 68-70 2OT 49%     4 - 13 2 - 4 -11.6 -7.2 -4.3
  Jan 24, 2025 301   LIU Brooklyn W 74-64 54%     5 - 13 3 - 4 -0.8 +3.7 -4.2
  Jan 26, 2025 345   Wagner L 66-68 69%     5 - 14 3 - 5 -17.1 -0.4 -17.0
  Jan 30, 2025 342   @ Mercyhurst L 58-62 48%     5 - 15 3 - 6 -13.4 -17.3 +3.7
  Feb 06, 2025 355   Le Moyne W 86-78 75%     6 - 15 4 - 6 -9.0 -1.3 -7.9
  Feb 08, 2025 361   @ Chicago St. W 81-69 66%     7 - 15 5 - 6 -2.2 +5.0 -6.8
  Feb 13, 2025 331   @ Stonehill L 74-79 43%     7 - 16 5 - 7 -12.9 +5.1 -18.6
  Feb 15, 2025 197   @ Central Connecticut St. L 67-83 16%     7 - 17 5 - 8 -15.2 +1.3 -17.3
  Feb 20, 2025 355   @ Le Moyne W 81-76 OT 56%     8 - 17 6 - 8 -6.5 -1.9 -4.7
  Feb 22, 2025 314   Fairleigh Dickinson W 85-80 OT 58%     9 - 17 7 - 8 -6.9 +2.9 -10.1
  Mar 01, 2025 361   Chicago St. W 80-71 OT 82%     10 - 17 8 - 8 -10.7 -4.4 -6.6
  Mar 05, 2025 345   Wagner W 58-55 69%     11 - 17 -12.1 -12.1 +0.3
  Mar 08, 2025 301   @ LIU Brooklyn W 71-68 33%     12 - 17 -2.3 +7.6 -9.6
  Mar 11, 2025 197   @ Central Connecticut St. L 63-74 16%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 100.0 100.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 100.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 100.0% 22.2% 22.2% 16.0 22.2 77.8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 22.2% 22.2% 0.0% 16.0 22.2 77.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 22.2% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 77.8%