St. Francis (PA)
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-13.8#356
Expected Predictive Rating-16.3#353
Pace75.5#45
Improvement+1.3#91

Offense
Total Offense-9.1#362
First Shot-6.4#337
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#321
Layup/Dunks-0.8#207
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#157
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#245
Freethrows-4.0#345
Improvement+0.3#155

Defense
Total Defense-4.8#329
First Shot-6.3#348
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#92
Layups/Dunks-5.2#336
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#49
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#277
Freethrows-0.4#212
Improvement+1.0#93
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.5% 3.8% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.9% 3.1% 0.5%
.500 or above in Conference 21.3% 29.5% 19.5%
Conference Champion 0.6% 1.0% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 34.0% 25.8% 35.8%
First Four2.4% 3.7% 2.2%
First Round0.9% 1.7% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Radford (Away) - 18.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 30 - 8
Quad 46 - 136 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 41 @Oklahoma L 66-102 1%     0 - 1 -21.2 -6.6 -12.6
  Thu, Nov 6 48 @TCU L 63-104 1%     0 - 2 -27.1 -7.6 -15.5
  Tue, Nov 11 307 Mount St. Mary's L 66-74 39%     0 - 3 -19.1 -11.1 -8.1
  Tue, Nov 18 299 @Lehigh L 62-79 19%     0 - 4 -21.7 -15.0 -5.9
  Mon, Nov 24 88 Belmont L 57-94 4%     0 - 5 -31.2 -14.0 -16.2
  Wed, Nov 26 146 Troy L 64-74 9%     0 - 6 -9.2 -10.6 +1.9
  Mon, Dec 1 77 @Xavier L 74-96 2%     0 - 7 -11.6 -0.7 -8.8
  Sun, Dec 7 290 @Radford L 74-84 18%    
  Sun, Dec 14 157 @Temple L 70-87 6%    
  Wed, Dec 17 15 @Florida L 59-94 0.1%   
  Sat, Dec 20 183 Robert Morris L 68-77 20%    
  Fri, Jan 2 321 Le Moyne L 78-80 44%    
  Sun, Jan 4 362 Fairleigh Dickinson W 79-75 65%    
  Thu, Jan 8 297 @Wagner L 68-77 20%    
  Sat, Jan 17 244 Central Connecticut St. L 67-73 29%    
  Mon, Jan 19 338 Stonehill W 71-70 51%    
  Fri, Jan 23 350 Chicago St. W 77-76 54%    
  Sun, Jan 25 346 @New Haven L 66-71 32%    
  Thu, Jan 29 350 @Chicago St. L 74-79 32%    
  Sat, Jan 31 346 New Haven W 69-68 52%    
  Thu, Feb 5 328 @Mercyhurst L 66-73 26%    
  Thu, Feb 12 362 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 76-78 44%    
  Thu, Feb 19 230 LIU Brooklyn L 72-79 27%    
  Sat, Feb 21 297 Wagner L 71-74 39%    
  Thu, Feb 26 338 @Stonehill L 67-73 30%    
  Sat, Feb 28 244 @Central Connecticut St. L 64-76 14%    
Projected Record 6 - 20 6 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 1.6 0.7 0.1 3.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 2.6 1.1 0.1 5.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 3.9 2.0 0.2 0.0 7.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 5.0 3.3 0.3 0.0 9.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 5.5 5.1 0.8 0.0 12.9 7th
8th 0.2 2.1 6.1 6.3 1.6 0.0 16.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.4 7.4 6.8 1.9 0.1 20.2 9th
10th 0.6 2.6 5.9 7.2 4.7 1.5 0.1 22.5 10th
Total 0.6 2.6 6.6 10.7 14.3 15.7 15.1 13.1 9.4 6.0 3.5 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 91.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
13-3 69.8% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0
12-4 41.0% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-5 9.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 0.1% 16.7% 16.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1
13-3 0.2% 22.6% 22.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1
12-4 0.7% 14.9% 14.9% 16.0 0.1 0.6
11-5 1.6% 11.9% 11.9% 16.0 0.2 1.4
10-6 3.5% 7.5% 7.5% 16.0 0.3 3.2
9-7 6.0% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.3 5.6
8-8 9.4% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.4 8.9
7-9 13.1% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.4 12.7
6-10 15.1% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 14.9
5-11 15.7% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 15.5
4-12 14.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 14.2
3-13 10.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 10.6
2-14 6.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 6.5
1-15 2.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.6
0-16 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 16.0 2.5 97.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%