Florida
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.0#12
Expected Predictive Rating+13.5#40
Pace73.3#75
Improvement+0.3#158

Offense
Total Offense+8.5#27
First Shot+4.5#68
After Offensive Rebound+3.9#15
Layup/Dunks+4.5#43
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#221
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#242
Freethrows+2.4#53
Improvement+0.7#124

Defense
Total Defense+9.5#9
First Shot+6.4#26
After Offensive Rebounds+3.2#14
Layups/Dunks+2.5#92
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#313
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.4#12
Freethrows-0.5#217
Improvement-0.3#206
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.2% 3.2% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 10.9% 11.0% 3.0%
Top 4 Seed 42.3% 42.5% 17.7%
Top 6 Seed 70.9% 71.1% 45.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 94.6% 94.6% 83.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 93.6% 93.7% 82.0%
Average Seed 5.1 5.1 6.4
.500 or above 98.5% 98.5% 90.9%
.500 or above in Conference 91.3% 91.4% 84.1%
Conference Champion 21.3% 21.4% 10.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
First Four2.1% 2.1% 4.7%
First Round93.8% 93.9% 81.9%
Second Round77.4% 77.5% 59.1%
Sweet Sixteen43.1% 43.2% 28.9%
Elite Eight19.4% 19.5% 10.3%
Final Four8.7% 8.7% 3.4%
Championship Game3.6% 3.6% 1.3%
National Champion1.4% 1.4% 0.4%

Next Game: Dartmouth (Home) - 99.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b6 - 39 - 9
Quad 26 - 114 - 11
Quad 33 - 017 - 11
Quad 45 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 2 Arizona L 87-93 30%     0 - 1 +17.3 +13.9 +4.3
  Thu, Nov 6 350 North Florida W 104-64 99%     1 - 1 +24.4 +7.5 +12.0
  Tue, Nov 11 113 Florida St. W 78-76 94%     2 - 1 +2.5 -5.4 +7.6
  Sun, Nov 16 35 Miami (FL) W 82-68 68%     3 - 1 +27.2 +8.8 +17.2
  Fri, Nov 21 263 Merrimack W 80-45 98%     4 - 1 +26.3 +9.6 +19.1
  Thu, Nov 27 53 TCU L 80-84 78%     4 - 2 +5.9 +7.9 -1.7
  Fri, Nov 28 78 Providence W 90-78 85%     5 - 2 +19.1 +13.1 +5.4
  Tue, Dec 2 4 @Duke L 66-67 25%     5 - 3 +23.9 +10.7 +13.1
  Tue, Dec 9 7 Connecticut L 73-77 37%     5 - 4 +17.4 +14.3 +3.1
  Sat, Dec 13 77 George Washington W 80-70 84%     6 - 4 +17.2 +5.9 +11.1
  Wed, Dec 17 361 St. Francis (PA) W 102-61 99.7%    7 - 4 +22.5 +17.9 +3.3
  Sun, Dec 21 181 Colgate W 90-60 97%     8 - 4 +25.5 +21.5 +6.4
  Mon, Dec 29 247 Dartmouth W 91-65 99%    
  Sat, Jan 3 60 @Missouri W 81-75 72%    
  Tue, Jan 6 22 Georgia W 88-83 68%    
  Sat, Jan 10 14 Tennessee W 74-71 62%    
  Tue, Jan 13 45 @Oklahoma W 80-76 63%    
  Sat, Jan 17 9 @Vanderbilt L 77-82 31%    
  Tue, Jan 20 39 LSU W 82-73 78%    
  Sat, Jan 24 34 Auburn W 82-74 76%    
  Wed, Jan 28 90 @South Carolina W 77-68 79%    
  Sun, Feb 1 15 Alabama W 89-85 63%    
  Sat, Feb 7 43 @Texas A&M W 83-80 62%    
  Wed, Feb 11 22 @Georgia L 85-86 46%    
  Sat, Feb 14 20 Kentucky W 79-74 67%    
  Tue, Feb 17 90 South Carolina W 80-65 91%    
  Sat, Feb 21 63 @Mississippi W 76-69 72%    
  Wed, Feb 25 41 @Texas W 79-76 60%    
  Sat, Feb 28 23 Arkansas W 84-78 70%    
  Tue, Mar 3 80 Mississippi St. W 83-69 90%    
  Sat, Mar 7 20 @Kentucky L 76-77 45%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.8 6.8 4.1 1.7 0.3 21.3 1st
2nd 0.2 2.7 6.8 5.6 2.0 0.3 0.0 17.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 6.1 4.9 1.1 0.1 13.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 4.1 5.1 1.0 0.0 10.7 4th
5th 0.1 2.2 5.1 1.6 0.1 9.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 4.0 2.4 0.2 7.4 6th
7th 0.1 2.2 3.1 0.4 5.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.6 1.0 0.0 4.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 1.5 0.1 3.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 2.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 1.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.4 4.5 7.5 11.0 13.9 15.9 15.3 12.6 8.8 4.4 1.7 0.3 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 99.0% 1.7    1.6 0.1
16-2 93.7% 4.1    3.5 0.7 0.0
15-3 76.8% 6.8    4.4 2.1 0.3 0.0
14-4 45.7% 5.8    2.2 2.6 0.9 0.1 0.0
13-5 15.9% 2.4    0.4 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.3% 21.3 12.3 6.3 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 100.0% 36.0% 64.0% 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.7% 100.0% 35.9% 64.1% 1.7 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 4.4% 100.0% 32.0% 68.0% 2.2 1.1 1.8 1.2 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-3 8.8% 100.0% 27.0% 73.0% 2.8 0.7 2.5 3.6 1.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 12.6% 100.0% 23.8% 76.2% 3.4 0.3 1.7 4.7 4.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 15.3% 100.0% 18.2% 81.8% 4.2 0.1 0.7 3.4 5.1 4.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-6 15.9% 100.0% 12.8% 87.1% 5.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.8 5.3 3.7 1.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 13.9% 99.8% 9.2% 90.6% 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.4 4.2 3.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.8%
10-8 11.0% 98.7% 5.7% 93.0% 6.9 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.4 3.4 2.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.1 98.7%
9-9 7.5% 93.3% 4.1% 89.3% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.8 1.8 1.2 0.4 0.5 93.0%
8-10 4.5% 70.5% 2.7% 67.8% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.1 0.0 1.3 69.7%
7-11 2.4% 28.6% 1.9% 26.7% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 1.7 27.2%
6-12 1.2% 5.1% 0.3% 4.8% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.1 4.8%
5-13 0.4% 0.4
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 94.6% 14.7% 79.9% 5.1 3.2 7.7 14.8 16.6 16.0 12.6 9.6 6.0 3.5 2.6 1.9 0.1 5.4 93.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 80.6 19.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.5 50.0 45.5 4.5