Florida
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+23.5#3
Expected Predictive Rating+23.5#2
Pace72.6#60
Improvement+2.3#96

Offense
Total Offense+13.7#4
First Shot+10.0#11
After Offensive Rebound+3.7#16
Layup/Dunks+6.8#10
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#289
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#39
Freethrows-0.1#181
Improvement+1.0#142

Defense
Total Defense+9.8#9
First Shot+10.3#4
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#227
Layups/Dunks+2.5#84
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#296
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.9#4
Freethrows+2.2#49
Improvement+1.3#115
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 12.1% 13.5% 6.9%
#1 Seed 61.2% 63.8% 51.3%
Top 2 Seed 98.5% 98.9% 96.9%
Top 4 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Top 6 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.4 1.4 1.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round99.3% 99.3% 99.4%
Sweet Sixteen81.0% 80.9% 81.3%
Elite Eight61.6% 61.5% 61.7%
Final Four40.4% 40.7% 39.2%
Championship Game23.2% 23.5% 22.2%
National Champion12.8% 12.9% 12.1%

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 46 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 110 - 5
Quad 29 - 019 - 5
Quad 33 - 022 - 5
Quad 47 - 029 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 189   South Florida W 98-83 98%     1 - 0 +13.5 +17.5 -5.4
  Nov 07, 2024 199   Jacksonville W 81-60 99%     2 - 0 +16.3 +12.1 +5.1
  Nov 11, 2024 330   Grambling St. W 86-62 99.7%    3 - 0 +10.6 +5.2 +4.4
  Nov 15, 2024 82   @ Florida St. W 87-74 90%     4 - 0 +22.5 +14.9 +6.7
  Nov 19, 2024 322   Florida A&M W 84-60 99.6%    5 - 0 +11.6 +5.6 +6.4
  Nov 22, 2024 195   Southern Illinois W 93-68 99%     6 - 0 +20.4 +14.8 +4.9
  Nov 28, 2024 61   Wake Forest W 75-58 90%     7 - 0 +26.3 +11.6 +15.3
  Nov 29, 2024 126   Wichita St. W 88-51 97%     8 - 0 +39.0 +18.9 +20.8
  Dec 04, 2024 99   Virginia W 87-69 97%     9 - 0 +20.0 +21.6 -0.1
  Dec 14, 2024 73   Arizona St. W 83-66 92%     10 - 0 +24.5 +7.9 +15.4
  Dec 17, 2024 36   North Carolina W 90-84 83%     11 - 0 +19.3 +12.0 +6.7
  Dec 21, 2024 276   North Florida W 99-45 99%     12 - 0 +44.8 +11.8 +29.9
  Dec 29, 2024 350   Stetson W 85-45 99.8%    13 - 0 +24.2 -3.2 +24.7
  Jan 04, 2025 14   @ Kentucky L 100-106 62%     13 - 1 0 - 1 +14.4 +31.5 -17.0
  Jan 07, 2025 6   Tennessee W 73-43 72%     14 - 1 1 - 1 +47.5 +13.6 +35.0
  Jan 11, 2025 38   @ Arkansas W 71-63 77%     15 - 1 2 - 1 +23.8 +9.5 +14.4
  Jan 14, 2025 19   Missouri L 82-83 82%     15 - 2 2 - 2 +12.9 +12.9 +0.0
  Jan 18, 2025 44   Texas W 84-60 91%     16 - 2 3 - 2 +32.8 +15.5 +17.4
  Jan 22, 2025 68   @ South Carolina W 70-69 88%     17 - 2 4 - 2 +11.7 +11.0 +0.8
  Jan 25, 2025 31   Georgia W 89-59 87%     18 - 2 5 - 2 +41.2 +25.3 +16.8
  Feb 01, 2025 6   @ Tennessee L 44-64 52%     18 - 3 5 - 3 +3.0 -10.9 +11.9
  Feb 04, 2025 48   Vanderbilt W 86-75 91%     19 - 3 6 - 3 +19.4 +19.2 +0.7
  Feb 08, 2025 2   @ Auburn W 90-81 37%     20 - 3 7 - 3 +36.0 +23.0 +12.5
  Feb 11, 2025 33   @ Mississippi St. W 81-68 75%     21 - 3 8 - 3 +29.4 +14.2 +15.1
  Feb 15, 2025 68   South Carolina W 88-67 95%     22 - 3 9 - 3 +26.2 +23.3 +3.9
  Feb 18, 2025 40   Oklahoma W 85-63 89%     23 - 3 10 - 3 +31.9 +16.6 +15.6
  Feb 22, 2025 80   @ LSU W 79-65 89%     24 - 3 11 - 3 +23.8 +21.0 +4.3
  Feb 25, 2025 31   @ Georgia L 83-88 74%     24 - 4 11 - 4 +11.7 +12.2 +0.0
  Mar 01, 2025 22   Texas A&M W 89-70 82%     25 - 4 12 - 4 +32.6 +22.2 +9.9
  Mar 05, 2025 5   @ Alabama W 99-94 49%     26 - 4 13 - 4 +28.8 +22.3 +5.8
  Mar 08, 2025 29   Mississippi W 90-71 87%     27 - 4 14 - 4 +30.5 +20.0 +10.0
Projected Record 27 - 4 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 100.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0%
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 100.0% 28.5% 71.5% 1.4 61.2 37.2 1.5 100.0%
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 28.5% 71.5% 1.4 61.2 37.2 1.5 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 28.5% 100.0% 1.3 74.6 25.2 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 22.6% 100.0% 1.4 60.8 38.0 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 28.1% 100.0% 1.5 55.4 42.6 2.1
Lose Out 20.7% 100.0% 1.5 51.3 45.6 3.1