Florida
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.8#15
Expected Predictive Rating+12.9#46
Pace75.3#46
Improvement+0.6#132

Offense
Total Offense+8.3#27
First Shot+4.1#70
After Offensive Rebound+4.2#17
Layup/Dunks+4.2#53
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#263
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#236
Freethrows+3.1#37
Improvement+0.4#151

Defense
Total Defense+9.5#9
First Shot+6.2#27
After Offensive Rebounds+3.3#17
Layups/Dunks-0.1#181
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#248
3 Pt Jumpshots+11.0#3
Freethrows-4.1#349
Improvement+0.2#162
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.0% 1.8% 0.5%
#1 Seed 6.4% 10.2% 3.8%
Top 2 Seed 17.8% 26.1% 12.2%
Top 4 Seed 48.6% 61.1% 40.3%
Top 6 Seed 72.7% 82.7% 66.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 92.7% 96.8% 89.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 91.5% 96.2% 88.6%
Average Seed 4.7 4.1 5.1
.500 or above 96.8% 98.8% 95.4%
.500 or above in Conference 88.0% 91.3% 85.8%
Conference Champion 21.6% 26.7% 18.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.2% 0.5%
First Four2.6% 1.4% 3.4%
First Round91.7% 96.2% 88.6%
Second Round76.5% 83.7% 71.8%
Sweet Sixteen44.7% 52.2% 39.6%
Elite Eight21.5% 26.5% 18.2%
Final Four10.1% 13.0% 8.2%
Championship Game4.4% 6.0% 3.4%
National Champion1.8% 2.5% 1.4%

Next Game: Connecticut (Neutral) - 40.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 74 - 7
Quad 1b5 - 39 - 9
Quad 25 - 114 - 11
Quad 33 - 017 - 11
Quad 45 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 9 Arizona L 87-93 44%     0 - 1 +13.3 +11.0 +3.1
  Thu, Nov 6 343 North Florida W 104-64 99%     1 - 1 +25.7 +9.0 +11.8
  Tue, Nov 11 100 Florida St. W 78-76 92%     2 - 1 +4.0 -3.5 +7.2
  Sun, Nov 16 34 Miami (FL) W 82-68 68%     3 - 1 +27.1 +9.4 +16.4
  Fri, Nov 21 277 Merrimack W 80-45 99%     4 - 1 +25.6 +8.8 +19.2
  Thu, Nov 27 48 TCU L 80-84 75%     4 - 2 +6.9 +7.5 -0.3
  Fri, Nov 28 72 Providence W 90-78 83%     5 - 2 +19.7 +14.3 +4.8
  Tue, Dec 2 3 @Duke L 66-67 25%     5 - 3 +23.9 +10.4 +13.5
  Tue, Dec 9 5 Connecticut L 71-74 40%    
  Sat, Dec 13 62 George Washington W 87-78 79%    
  Wed, Dec 17 356 St. Francis (PA) W 94-59 99.9%   
  Sun, Dec 21 176 Colgate W 86-64 98%    
  Mon, Dec 29 261 Dartmouth W 92-65 99%    
  Sat, Jan 3 37 @Missouri W 80-78 57%    
  Tue, Jan 6 19 Georgia W 88-83 68%    
  Sat, Jan 10 16 Tennessee W 77-73 63%    
  Tue, Jan 13 41 @Oklahoma W 81-78 61%    
  Sat, Jan 17 12 @Vanderbilt L 79-83 36%    
  Tue, Jan 20 29 LSU W 81-74 74%    
  Sat, Jan 24 20 Auburn W 81-76 68%    
  Wed, Jan 28 89 @South Carolina W 79-70 79%    
  Sun, Feb 1 11 Alabama W 89-87 57%    
  Sat, Feb 7 38 @Texas A&M W 82-79 60%    
  Wed, Feb 11 19 @Georgia L 85-86 48%    
  Sat, Feb 14 23 Kentucky W 82-76 70%    
  Tue, Feb 17 89 South Carolina W 82-67 91%    
  Sat, Feb 21 58 @Mississippi W 78-73 69%    
  Wed, Feb 25 50 @Texas W 80-76 64%    
  Sat, Feb 28 22 Arkansas W 82-76 70%    
  Tue, Mar 3 81 Mississippi St. W 84-70 89%    
  Sat, Mar 7 23 @Kentucky L 78-79 50%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.5 6.4 4.6 1.9 0.3 21.6 1st
2nd 0.1 2.6 6.4 5.3 1.7 0.2 0.0 16.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.5 5.3 4.2 1.0 0.1 12.2 3rd
4th 0.5 4.2 4.6 1.0 0.0 10.3 4th
5th 0.2 2.4 4.6 1.3 0.1 8.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 4.1 2.2 0.2 7.2 6th
7th 0.2 2.1 3.0 0.4 5.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.2 1.1 0.1 5.0 8th
9th 0.2 1.7 1.7 0.1 3.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 2.0 0.4 0.0 3.0 10th
11th 0.2 1.3 0.9 0.0 2.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.2 1.8 12th
13th 0.3 0.5 0.3 1.1 13th
14th 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 3.3 5.7 8.3 11.1 13.1 14.4 14.1 11.9 8.1 4.8 1.9 0.3 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 99.3% 1.9    1.8 0.1
16-2 95.3% 4.6    3.9 0.6 0.0
15-3 78.8% 6.4    4.4 1.7 0.3 0.0
14-4 46.7% 5.5    2.1 2.5 0.8 0.1
13-5 17.5% 2.5    0.4 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.1
12-6 2.6% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.6% 21.6 13.0 5.9 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 100.0% 49.0% 51.0% 1.2 0.3 0.1 100.0%
17-1 1.9% 100.0% 36.3% 63.7% 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.1 100.0%
16-2 4.8% 100.0% 33.0% 67.0% 1.8 2.0 2.0 0.7 0.1 100.0%
15-3 8.1% 100.0% 25.9% 74.1% 2.3 1.6 3.2 2.7 0.6 0.1 100.0%
14-4 11.9% 100.0% 24.0% 76.0% 2.9 1.0 3.3 4.3 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 14.1% 100.0% 18.0% 82.0% 3.7 0.3 1.7 4.4 4.6 2.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 14.4% 100.0% 12.3% 87.7% 4.5 0.1 0.4 2.5 4.3 4.3 2.0 0.6 0.1 100.0%
11-7 13.1% 99.8% 8.3% 91.5% 5.4 0.1 0.8 2.3 3.8 3.4 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
10-8 11.1% 98.7% 5.2% 93.4% 6.5 0.1 0.6 2.0 2.9 2.9 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.2 98.6%
9-9 8.3% 93.6% 3.3% 90.2% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 93.4%
8-10 5.7% 72.3% 2.9% 69.4% 9.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.1 0.0 1.6 71.4%
7-11 3.3% 35.6% 0.9% 34.7% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 2.1 35.0%
6-12 1.7% 5.6% 0.4% 5.2% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 5.2%
5-13 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 10.0 0.0 0.9 0.7%
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 92.7% 13.8% 78.8% 4.7 6.4 11.4 15.6 15.2 13.7 10.3 7.5 4.5 2.9 2.7 2.2 0.2 7.3 91.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 90.9 9.1