Florida
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +20.4 #10
Expected Predictive Rating +17.7 #19
Pace 73.2 #70
Improvement +3.7 #37

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #11 B A+ B- B+ A
Defense #9 A+ A+ C- B- A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #43 1.35 #18 +7.8 #8
2 Pt. Jumpers 11% #343 0.97 #12 -2.3 #296
Three Pointers 44% #118 0.86 #341 -1.9 #251
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #77 +3.6 #77
Freethrows 20.1 #47 73% #172 14.8 #61
Second Chance 44.1% #2 1.11 #100 0.49 #4
Turnovers 15.4% #114
Total Offense +10.5 #11

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #257 0.92 #5 +5.8 #27
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% #2 0.69 #83 -3.6 #359
Three Pointers 31% #361 1.01 #182 +5.0 #23
1st FG Attempt 0.87 #14 +7.2 #16
Freethrows 16.3 #134 70% #56 11.4 #101
Second Chance 20.6% #2 0.74 #2 0.15 #2
Turnovers 15.7% #229
Total Defense +9.9 #9

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.2% #18 -3.5% #13
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.8% #116 -11.1% #26
Possession Length 15.6 #42 18.0 #296
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.27 #12 0.10 #19
Improvement +4.3 #11 -0.6 #227

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.6% 1.9% 0.4%
#1 Seed 10.8% 12.4% 4.6%
Top 2 Seed 31.9% 35.6% 17.9%
Top 4 Seed 80.4% 84.0% 66.5%
Top 6 Seed 97.1% 98.1% 93.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.9% 100.0% 99.6%
Average Seed 3.3 3.1 3.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 99.9% 99.3%
Conference Champion 60.4% 65.6% 40.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
Second Round94.9% 95.5% 92.3%
Sweet Sixteen64.2% 65.7% 58.4%
Elite Eight34.5% 36.0% 28.8%
Final Four17.7% 18.5% 14.9%
Championship Game8.6% 9.1% 6.9%
National Champion4.0% 4.3% 2.9%

Next Game: Auburn (Home) - 79.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 64 - 6
Quad 1b7 - 211 - 8
Quad 26 - 117 - 9
Quad 33 - 019 - 9
Quad 45 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 2 Arizona L 87 - 93 39% -1  0 - 1 +17 +13 A A C +5 B+ A+ B+
 Thu, Nov 6 350 North Florida W 104 - 64 100% +21  1 - 1 +25 +6 F A+ F +14 A+ C+ B-
 Tue, Nov 11 111 Florida St. W 78 - 76 96% +1  2 - 1 +3 -6 D F D +8 A+ A+ D-
 Sun, Nov 16 40 Miami (FL) W 82 - 68 78% +7  3 - 1 +26 +8 B+ B B +17 A+ A+ D
 Fri, Nov 21 208 Merrimack W 80 - 45 98% +24  4 - 1 +29 +11 D A+ C +20 A+ A+ C+
 Thu, Nov 27 45 TCU L 80 - 84 81% +2  4 - 2 +7 +8 C- A+ F -1 B B F
 Fri, Nov 28 65 Providence W 90 - 78 87% +9  5 - 2 +20 +13 D+ A+ A+ +7 A- A+ C-
 Tue, Dec 2 3 @Duke L 66 - 67 32% -5  5 - 3 +24 +11 C+ A+ C +13 A A+ B
 Tue, Dec 9 7 Connecticut L 73 - 77 50% -2  5 - 4 +16 +14 A+ D B +2 C+ A+ D-
 Sat, Dec 13 72 George Washington W 80 - 70 88% +8  6 - 4 +18 +6 A+ D C +11 A+ A+ C
 Wed, Dec 17 358 St. Francis (PA) W 102 - 61 100% +25  7 - 4 +23 +18 A+ A+ D- +4 B- A+ D+
 Sun, Dec 21 199 Colgate W 90 - 60 98% +17  8 - 4 +24 +20 A A+ C+ +7 C A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 221 Dartmouth W 94 - 72 99% +21  9 - 4 +15 +12 B- A+ F +2 C A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 50 @Missouri L 74 - 76 74% -1  9 - 5 0 - 1 +12 +8 C C- A+ +3 B- A+ F
 Tue, Jan 6 24 Georgia W 92 - 77 76% +6  10 - 5 1 - 1 +28 +15 A A+ B+ +11 A+ A+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 22 Tennessee W 91 - 67 75% +10  11 - 5 2 - 1 +38 +20 A+ A+ A+ +16 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 13 57 @Oklahoma W 96 - 79 76% +16  12 - 5 3 - 1 +30 +26 A A+ A+ +3 C+ A- B+
 Sat, Jan 17 21 @Vanderbilt W 98 - 94 51% +2  13 - 5 4 - 1 +24 +29 A+ A+ A+ -5 B- A+ F
 Tue, Jan 20 43 LSU W 79 - 61 86% +10  14 - 5 5 - 1 +27 +13 B- A+ C +15 A+ A+ B
 Sat, Jan 24 27 Auburn W 84 - 75 79%
 Wed, Jan 28 69 @South Carolina W 79 - 70 81%
 Sun, Feb 1 17 Alabama W 91 - 85 70%
 Sat, Feb 7 34 @Texas A&M W 84 - 80 63%
 Wed, Feb 11 24 @Georgia W 86 - 85 56%
 Sat, Feb 14 25 Kentucky W 82 - 75 75%
 Tue, Feb 17 69 South Carolina W 82 - 67 92%
 Sat, Feb 21 62 @Mississippi W 79 - 70 78%
 Wed, Feb 25 38 @Texas W 82 - 78 65%
 Sat, Feb 28 20 Arkansas W 87 - 81 71%
 Tue, Mar 3 76 Mississippi St. W 85 - 69 93%
 Sat, Mar 7 25 @Kentucky W 79 - 78 55%
Totals 23 - 8 14 - 4 +20 +11 B A+ B- +10 A+ A+ C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 6.8 17.3 19.8 12.3 3.5 60.4 1st
2nd 0.2 3.4 9.0 5.4 1.0 0.0 19.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.7 3.0 0.3 0.0 9.0 3rd
4th 0.1 2.1 2.4 0.2 0.0 4.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.1 0.4 0.0 3.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 0.8 0.0 1.7 6th
7th 0.2 0.8 0.1 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.5 6.2 11.7 18.9 23.1 20.8 12.3 3.5 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 3.5    3.5
16-2 99.6% 12.3    11.9 0.4
15-3 95.0% 19.8    16.3 3.4 0.1
14-4 75.0% 17.3    9.1 6.9 1.2 0.1
13-5 35.7% 6.8    1.5 2.8 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 6.2% 0.7    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 60.4% 60.4 42.2 13.6 3.4 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 3.5% 100.0% 41.3% 58.7% 1.5 2.0 1.3 0.2 100.0%
16-2 12.3% 100.0% 37.3% 62.7% 1.9 4.3 5.4 2.3 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-3 20.8% 100.0% 32.9% 67.1% 2.5 3.0 7.5 7.6 2.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 23.1% 100.0% 29.8% 70.2% 3.1 1.2 4.7 9.3 6.2 1.5 0.2 100.0%
13-5 18.9% 100.0% 26.6% 73.4% 3.7 0.3 1.9 5.8 6.8 3.5 0.6 0.1 100.0%
12-6 11.7% 100.0% 20.5% 79.4% 4.5 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.8 3.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-7 6.2% 99.9% 13.5% 86.4% 5.3 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.1 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-8 2.5% 99.6% 14.2% 85.4% 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 99.5%
9-9 0.7% 98.6% 7.6% 91.0% 7.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.5%
8-10 0.2% 93.3% 13.3% 80.0% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.3%
7-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.9% 28.5% 71.5% 3.3 0.1 99.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.4% 100.0% 1.2 77.2 22.5 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6% 100.0% 1.5 53.9 39.1 7.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8% 100.0% 1.7 43.5 47.4 9.1