Vanderbilt
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +17.2 #21
Expected Predictive Rating +19.3 #15
Pace 73.8 #64
Improvement -6.1 #361

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #10 A+ B A+ B+ C
Defense #35 A- A- B D- B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #208 1.39 #6 +3.8 #62
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #217 0.80 #111 -0.4 #192
Three Pointers 44% #122 1.14 #39 +4.3 #48
1st FG Attempt 1.17 #20 +7.7 #20
Freethrows 18.5 #124 79% #14 14.7 #64
Second Chance 31.8% #148 1.19 #33 0.38 #63
Turnovers 12.5% #10
Total Offense +10.7 #10

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #302 1.05 #66 +4.3 #50
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #49 0.77 #201 -2.2 #328
Three Pointers 40% #208 0.86 #26 +3.5 #53
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #34 +5.6 #34
Freethrows 19.6 #296 75% #299 14.8 #315
Second Chance 25.6% #30 0.98 #89 0.25 #33
Turnovers 18.6% #65
Total Defense +6.5 #35

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.4% #166 -1.9% #46
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 14.6% #14 -9.3% #37
Possession Length 15.4 #31 17.8 #256
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #70 0.09 #12
Improvement -4.0 #350 -2.0 #295

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.6% 2.0% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 7.7% 9.5% 2.8%
Top 4 Seed 45.3% 51.1% 30.0%
Top 6 Seed 85.1% 89.1% 74.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.5% 99.7% 99.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.5% 99.7% 98.9%
Average Seed 4.8 4.5 5.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 88.3% 92.5% 77.1%
Conference Champion 5.0% 6.3% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.8%
First Round99.4% 99.7% 98.6%
Second Round82.9% 85.2% 76.6%
Sweet Sixteen42.5% 45.1% 35.3%
Elite Eight17.2% 18.6% 13.5%
Final Four7.0% 7.7% 5.1%
Championship Game2.8% 3.1% 2.0%
National Champion1.1% 1.1% 1.0%

Next Game: Mississippi St. (Away) - 72.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b7 - 310 - 7
Quad 27 - 117 - 8
Quad 32 - 019 - 8
Quad 46 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 174 Lipscomb W 105 - 61 97% +29  1 - 0 +40 +25 A+ F A+ +12 A+ C A+
 Sat, Nov 8 53 @Central Florida W 105 - 93 64% +12  2 - 0 +26 +32 A+ A+ A+ -7 D- B- C+
 Wed, Nov 12 254 Eastern Kentucky W 92 - 62 98% +19  3 - 0 +22 +9 A+ F C +12 A+ A+ B
 Sat, Nov 15 334 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 104 - 75 99% +16  4 - 0 +15 +18 C A+ A+ -5 B B+ C-
 Thu, Nov 20 335 Texas Southern W 109 - 74 99% +24  5 - 0 +21 +23 A+ A+ B+ -4 F A+ B-
 Wed, Nov 26 162 Western Kentucky W 83 - 78 94% +6  6 - 0 +5 -0 C D+ F +4 D+ A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 27 55 Virginia Commonwealth W 89 - 74 75% +10  7 - 0 +25 +14 A+ C F +10 A+ B B+
 Fri, Nov 28 42 St. Mary's W 96 - 71 69% +13  8 - 0 +37 +26 A+ A+ A+ +10 B A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 29 SMU W 88 - 69 71% +9  9 - 0 +30 +21 A+ C A+ +10 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 236 Central Arkansas W 83 - 72 98% +15  10 - 0 +4 +1 F A+ C +2 A C C
 Wed, Dec 17 92 @Memphis W 77 - 70 OT 79% +3  11 - 0 +16 -2 F D- F +17 A+ A+ A
 Sun, Dec 21 63 @Wake Forest W 98 - 67 70% +19  12 - 0 +43 +28 A+ D+ A+ +14 A+ A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 331 New Haven W 96 - 53 99% +24  13 - 0 +29 +21 A+ A A +9 A A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 3 69 @South Carolina W 83 - 71 72% +10  14 - 0 1 - 0 +23 +22 A+ B A+ +2 A+ A F
 Wed, Jan 7 17 Alabama W 96 - 90 59% +5  15 - 0 2 - 0 +21 +12 B- A- A+ +8 A+ F A
 Sat, Jan 10 43 LSU W 84 - 73 79% +11  16 - 0 3 - 0 +20 +13 A- D A+ +7 A- A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 14 38 @Texas L 64 - 80 54% -6  16 - 1 3 - 1 +0 -1 C F C -0 F A- A+
 Sat, Jan 17 10 Florida L 94 - 98 49% -2  16 - 2 3 - 2 +13 +26 A+ A- A+ -12 C F D
 Tue, Jan 20 20 @Arkansas L 68 - 93 38% -15  16 - 3 3 - 3 -5 +5 F A+ A- -11 F C+ D
 Sat, Jan 24 76 @Mississippi St. W 82 - 75 73%
 Tue, Jan 27 25 Kentucky W 82 - 78 66%
 Sat, Jan 31 62 @Mississippi W 79 - 74 69%
 Sat, Feb 7 57 Oklahoma W 86 - 76 83%
 Tue, Feb 10 27 @Auburn L 82 - 83 48%
 Sat, Feb 14 34 Texas A&M W 87 - 81 72%
 Wed, Feb 18 50 @Missouri W 81 - 78 62%
 Sat, Feb 21 22 Tennessee W 79 - 75 63%
 Wed, Feb 25 24 Georgia W 90 - 86 65%
 Sat, Feb 28 25 @Kentucky L 79 - 81 43%
 Wed, Mar 4 62 Mississippi W 82 - 71 85%
 Sat, Mar 7 22 @Tennessee L 76 - 78 42%
Totals 24 - 7 11 - 7 +17 +11 A+ B A+ +6 A- A- B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.3 0.8 5.0 1st
2nd 0.2 3.4 5.4 2.2 0.2 11.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.8 7.8 3.6 0.4 0.0 14.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 7.5 5.4 0.5 0.0 14.2 4th
5th 0.1 4.0 7.5 1.2 0.0 12.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 6.9 2.6 0.0 10.4 6th
7th 0.1 3.7 5.3 0.3 0.0 9.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 5.3 1.5 0.0 7.6 8th
9th 0.1 2.6 2.8 0.1 5.6 9th
10th 0.7 2.6 0.6 0.0 4.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.3 1.0 0.0 2.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.1 1.3 12th
13th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.0 3.2 7.2 13.5 18.7 21.0 18.1 11.0 4.9 1.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 74.6% 0.8    0.5 0.3 0.0
14-4 46.7% 2.3    0.9 1.0 0.4 0.0
13-5 14.4% 1.6    0.2 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.0% 5.0 1.5 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 1.0% 100.0% 25.4% 74.6% 1.9 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 4.9% 100.0% 23.4% 76.6% 2.4 0.7 1.9 1.8 0.5 0.0 100.0%
13-5 11.0% 100.0% 20.3% 79.7% 3.1 0.4 2.3 4.6 3.1 0.6 0.0 100.0%
12-6 18.1% 100.0% 14.0% 86.0% 3.8 0.2 1.1 5.5 7.3 3.7 0.5 0.0 100.0%
11-7 21.0% 100.0% 9.5% 90.5% 4.5 0.0 0.3 3.2 6.7 7.7 2.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
10-8 18.7% 100.0% 6.0% 94.0% 5.2 0.0 0.9 3.0 7.8 5.7 1.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
9-9 13.5% 99.9% 4.6% 95.3% 5.9 0.2 0.7 3.6 5.3 3.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
8-10 7.2% 99.7% 2.9% 96.7% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 2.4 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 99.6%
7-11 3.2% 97.4% 1.7% 95.7% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.1 97.3%
6-12 1.0% 81.6% 81.6% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 81.6%
5-13 0.3% 53.7% 53.7% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 53.7%
4-14 0.0% 0.0 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.5% 10.2% 89.4% 4.8 0.5 99.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.4 64.7 35.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.9 25.8 58.1 16.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 100.0% 2.2 9.1 63.6 27.3