Vanderbilt
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.3#50
Expected Predictive Rating+14.7#32
Pace73.9#61
Improvement+2.1#51

Offense
Total Offense+7.0#35
First Shot+4.8#57
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#59
Layup/Dunks+4.7#37
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#203
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#206
Freethrows+1.7#84
Improvement+1.5#68

Defense
Total Defense+3.3#91
First Shot+2.6#101
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#118
Layups/Dunks+0.9#132
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#111
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#216
Freethrows+1.3#94
Improvement+0.6#139
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 3.7% 3.8% 1.3%
Top 6 Seed 12.4% 12.7% 4.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 45.2% 45.8% 27.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 44.9% 45.5% 27.0%
Average Seed 8.0 8.0 8.6
.500 or above 87.9% 88.7% 66.7%
.500 or above in Conference 21.7% 22.0% 11.7%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 18.1% 17.8% 26.7%
First Four7.8% 7.8% 6.4%
First Round41.1% 41.7% 23.4%
Second Round21.6% 22.0% 10.8%
Sweet Sixteen7.2% 7.3% 3.9%
Elite Eight2.5% 2.5% 1.5%
Final Four0.8% 0.8% 0.2%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Austin Peay (Home) - 96.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 92 - 9
Quad 1b2 - 25 - 11
Quad 24 - 29 - 13
Quad 33 - 012 - 13
Quad 47 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 359   Maryland Eastern Shore W 102-63 99%     1 - 0 +21.9 +17.9 +3.0
  Nov 10, 2024 289   Southeast Missouri St. W 85-76 96%     2 - 0 -0.8 +5.1 -6.4
  Nov 13, 2024 118   California W 85-69 84%     3 - 0 +15.7 +2.0 +12.4
  Nov 16, 2024 303   Jackson St. W 94-81 96%     4 - 0 +2.3 +14.6 -12.8
  Nov 21, 2024 52   Nevada W 73-71 51%     5 - 0 +12.0 +6.5 +5.6
  Nov 22, 2024 116   Seton Hall W 76-60 76%     6 - 0 +18.8 +13.2 +6.5
  Nov 24, 2024 67   Drake L 70-81 57%     6 - 1 -2.5 +1.7 -4.0
  Nov 29, 2024 328   Tennessee Tech W 87-56 97%     7 - 1 +18.5 +5.6 +12.4
  Dec 04, 2024 126   @ Virginia Tech W 80-64 69%     8 - 1 +21.3 +14.2 +7.8
  Dec 08, 2024 88   TCU W 83-74 65%     9 - 1 +15.4 +12.3 +2.7
  Dec 18, 2024 355   The Citadel W 105-53 98%     10 - 1 +36.1 +32.2 +7.5
  Dec 21, 2024 273   Austin Peay W 79-60 97%    
  Dec 30, 2024 345   New Orleans W 92-67 99%    
  Jan 04, 2025 56   @ LSU L 78-80 42%    
  Jan 07, 2025 28   Mississippi St. W 78-77 50%    
  Jan 11, 2025 55   @ Missouri L 78-81 41%    
  Jan 15, 2025 69   South Carolina W 77-72 68%    
  Jan 18, 2025 3   Tennessee L 70-77 25%    
  Jan 21, 2025 8   @ Alabama L 82-92 17%    
  Jan 25, 2025 9   Kentucky L 83-87 36%    
  Feb 01, 2025 34   @ Oklahoma L 76-81 33%    
  Feb 04, 2025 7   @ Florida L 77-88 16%    
  Feb 08, 2025 31   Texas W 76-75 53%    
  Feb 11, 2025 1   Auburn L 77-87 19%    
  Feb 15, 2025 3   @ Tennessee L 67-80 11%    
  Feb 19, 2025 9   @ Kentucky L 80-90 18%    
  Feb 22, 2025 27   Mississippi L 77-78 50%    
  Feb 26, 2025 25   @ Texas A&M L 70-77 27%    
  Mar 01, 2025 55   Missouri W 81-78 62%    
  Mar 04, 2025 29   Arkansas W 80-79 52%    
  Mar 08, 2025 32   @ Georgia L 74-79 32%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.5 0.1 2.4 4th
5th 0.2 1.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 2.3 0.5 4.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.2 1.4 0.1 5.2 7th
8th 0.1 2.4 3.0 0.4 5.9 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 4.5 1.3 0.0 7.0 9th
10th 0.4 3.7 3.6 0.3 0.0 7.8 10th
11th 0.1 2.1 5.5 1.2 0.0 8.9 11th
12th 0.0 1.1 5.2 3.5 0.1 9.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.6 3.9 5.3 0.9 0.0 10.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.4 2.1 0.1 10.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.6 2.6 5.0 2.7 0.3 11.2 15th
16th 0.2 1.1 2.7 3.7 2.1 0.4 0.0 10.3 16th
Total 0.2 1.2 3.3 6.8 10.6 13.6 15.3 15.0 12.3 9.3 6.1 3.5 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 60.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 27.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 11.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 100.0% 15.8% 84.2% 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 0.3% 100.0% 16.4% 83.6% 2.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 0.7% 100.0% 9.4% 90.6% 3.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 1.7% 100.0% 4.2% 95.8% 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 100.0%
11-7 3.5% 100.0% 1.9% 98.1% 5.2 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-8 6.1% 99.6% 1.5% 98.1% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.8 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
9-9 9.3% 97.7% 0.9% 96.8% 7.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.4 2.4 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.2 97.7%
8-10 12.3% 87.3% 0.5% 86.8% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.4 3.2 2.3 1.0 0.0 1.6 87.2%
7-11 15.0% 58.8% 0.3% 58.5% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.9 3.4 0.2 6.2 58.7%
6-12 15.3% 24.3% 0.2% 24.1% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 2.4 0.5 11.6 24.1%
5-13 13.6% 3.0% 0.0% 2.9% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 13.2 2.9%
4-14 10.6% 0.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 10.6 0.1%
3-15 6.8% 6.8
2-16 3.3% 3.3
1-17 1.2% 1.2
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 45.2% 0.6% 44.6% 8.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.1 3.8 4.9 5.9 6.2 6.4 6.2 7.2 0.9 54.8 44.9%