Vanderbilt
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.1#48
Expected Predictive Rating+14.4#34
Pace72.3#65
Improvement+0.5#175

Offense
Total Offense+7.8#27
First Shot+6.1#43
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#83
Layup/Dunks+5.4#26
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#254
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#147
Freethrows+1.1#110
Improvement+1.5#112

Defense
Total Defense+3.3#86
First Shot+2.2#103
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#94
Layups/Dunks+0.1#165
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#60
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#211
Freethrows+0.9#112
Improvement-0.9#238
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.8% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 84.1% 93.1% 75.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 84.1% 93.1% 75.7%
Average Seed 9.5 9.1 10.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four10.5% 3.3% 17.2%
First Round78.4% 91.3% 66.5%
Second Round27.8% 33.3% 22.7%
Sweet Sixteen4.6% 4.8% 4.5%
Elite Eight1.3% 1.3% 1.3%
Final Four0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 83 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 26 - 9
Quad 24 - 310 - 12
Quad 33 - 013 - 12
Quad 48 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 360   Maryland Eastern Shore W 102-63 99%     1 - 0 +19.8 +17.6 +1.1
  Nov 10, 2024 212   Southeast Missouri St. W 85-76 93%     2 - 0 +3.3 +7.8 -4.8
  Nov 13, 2024 105   California W 85-69 83%     3 - 0 +17.2 +5.1 +10.8
  Nov 16, 2024 269   Jackson St. W 94-81 96%     4 - 0 +4.3 +14.4 -10.7
  Nov 21, 2024 83   Nevada W 73-71 67%     5 - 0 +8.7 +5.3 +3.4
  Nov 22, 2024 166   Seton Hall W 76-60 86%     6 - 0 +15.5 +11.0 +5.4
  Nov 24, 2024 66   Drake L 70-81 61%     6 - 1 -2.8 +0.7 -3.3
  Nov 29, 2024 313   Tennessee Tech W 87-56 97%     7 - 1 +19.1 +6.9 +11.7
  Dec 04, 2024 134   @ Virginia Tech W 80-64 75%     8 - 1 +20.2 +13.4 +7.6
  Dec 08, 2024 77   TCU W 83-74 64%     9 - 1 +16.4 +12.6 +3.3
  Dec 18, 2024 357   The Citadel W 105-53 99%     10 - 1 +34.4 +31.3 +6.7
  Dec 21, 2024 277   Austin Peay W 85-55 96%     11 - 1 +20.7 +4.4 +15.2
  Dec 30, 2024 354   New Orleans W 100-56 99%     12 - 1 +27.5 +7.3 +15.6
  Jan 04, 2025 80   @ LSU W 80-72 55%     13 - 1 1 - 0 +17.8 +15.6 +2.4
  Jan 07, 2025 33   Mississippi St. L 64-76 51%     13 - 2 1 - 1 -1.1 -2.8 +1.3
  Jan 11, 2025 19   @ Missouri L 66-75 21%     13 - 3 1 - 2 +10.5 +2.0 +8.0
  Jan 15, 2025 68   South Carolina W 66-63 72%     14 - 3 2 - 2 +8.2 -3.3 +11.5
  Jan 18, 2025 6   Tennessee W 76-75 27%     15 - 3 3 - 2 +18.5 +21.6 -3.1
  Jan 21, 2025 5   @ Alabama L 87-103 12%     15 - 4 3 - 3 +7.8 +9.9 +0.2
  Jan 25, 2025 14   Kentucky W 74-69 36%     16 - 4 4 - 3 +19.9 +7.9 +12.1
  Feb 01, 2025 40   @ Oklahoma L 67-97 34%     16 - 5 4 - 4 -14.6 -4.1 -8.7
  Feb 04, 2025 3   @ Florida L 75-86 9%     16 - 6 4 - 5 +15.2 +17.0 -2.3
  Feb 08, 2025 44   Texas W 86-78 59%     17 - 6 5 - 5 +16.8 +16.9 -0.1
  Feb 11, 2025 2   Auburn L 68-80 17%     17 - 7 5 - 6 +9.5 +9.3 -1.0
  Feb 15, 2025 6   @ Tennessee L 76-81 14%     17 - 8 5 - 7 +18.0 +23.7 -6.2
  Feb 19, 2025 14   @ Kentucky L 61-82 19%     17 - 9 5 - 8 -0.6 -2.4 +0.7
  Feb 22, 2025 29   Mississippi W 77-72 48%     18 - 9 6 - 8 +16.5 +11.8 +4.9
  Feb 26, 2025 22   @ Texas A&M W 86-84 22%     19 - 9 7 - 8 +21.1 +19.9 +1.1
  Mar 01, 2025 19   Missouri W 97-93 OT 39%     20 - 9 8 - 8 +17.9 +19.9 -2.3
  Mar 04, 2025 38   Arkansas L 77-90 53%     20 - 10 8 - 9 -2.7 +2.8 -4.1
  Mar 08, 2025 31   @ Georgia L 68-79 29%     20 - 11 8 - 10 +5.7 +5.8 -0.2
  Mar 12, 2025 44   Texas L 77-78 48%    
Projected Record 20 - 12 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 100.0 100.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 100.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 100.0% 84.1% 0.0% 84.1% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 11.1 25.8 31.4 13.7 0.1 15.9 84.1%
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 84.1% 0.0% 84.1% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 11.1 25.8 31.4 13.7 0.1 15.9 84.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 100.0% 7.1 8.6 20.0 34.3 28.6 8.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.2% 100.0% 7.7 9.8 25.9 52.7 11.2 0.4
Lose Out 52.0% 75.7% 10.0 0.0 2.4 15.1 36.2 21.8 0.3