Vanderbilt
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.8#57
Expected Predictive Rating+14.0#40
Pace73.8#52
Improvement-0.3#207

Offense
Total Offense+5.6#53
First Shot+4.3#64
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#107
Layup/Dunks+4.5#34
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#258
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#169
Freethrows+0.8#128
Improvement-1.5#279

Defense
Total Defense+4.2#66
First Shot+3.0#87
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#82
Layups/Dunks+0.4#153
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#57
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#203
Freethrows+1.0#108
Improvement+1.2#119
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 1.6% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 2.9% 7.9% 2.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 44.7% 70.4% 41.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 44.6% 70.2% 41.6%
Average Seed 9.3 8.6 9.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 14.9% 36.0% 12.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.0% 0.5%
First Four12.8% 10.6% 13.0%
First Round37.6% 65.5% 34.3%
Second Round15.1% 28.9% 13.5%
Sweet Sixteen3.3% 6.1% 3.0%
Elite Eight1.0% 1.9% 0.9%
Final Four0.2% 0.8% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida (Away) - 10.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 35 - 11
Quad 24 - 29 - 13
Quad 34 - 012 - 13
Quad 47 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 361   Maryland Eastern Shore W 102-63 99%     1 - 0 +19.8 +17.9 +0.9
  Nov 10, 2024 265   Southeast Missouri St. W 85-76 94%     2 - 0 +0.7 +5.3 -5.0
  Nov 13, 2024 116   California W 85-69 81%     3 - 0 +16.4 +3.6 +11.5
  Nov 16, 2024 284   Jackson St. W 94-81 95%     4 - 0 +3.8 +14.6 -11.4
  Nov 21, 2024 88   Nevada W 73-71 63%     5 - 0 +8.5 +5.3 +3.2
  Nov 22, 2024 147   Seton Hall W 76-60 80%     6 - 0 +17.0 +9.8 +8.0
  Nov 24, 2024 73   Drake L 70-81 59%     6 - 1 -3.4 -0.1 -3.2
  Nov 29, 2024 298   Tennessee Tech W 87-56 96%     7 - 1 +20.9 +7.3 +13.0
  Dec 04, 2024 118   @ Virginia Tech W 80-64 68%     8 - 1 +21.1 +12.2 +9.6
  Dec 08, 2024 68   TCU W 83-74 57%     9 - 1 +16.9 +12.3 +4.1
  Dec 18, 2024 358   The Citadel W 105-53 98%     10 - 1 +35.4 +32.5 +6.4
  Dec 21, 2024 296   Austin Peay W 85-55 96%     11 - 1 +20.1 +5.6 +13.4
  Dec 30, 2024 351   New Orleans W 100-56 98%     12 - 1 +28.7 +8.8 +15.4
  Jan 04, 2025 71   @ LSU W 80-72 48%     13 - 1 1 - 0 +18.3 +15.5 +3.0
  Jan 07, 2025 35   Mississippi St. L 64-76 47%     13 - 2 1 - 1 -1.3 -2.6 +0.9
  Jan 11, 2025 23   @ Missouri L 66-75 23%     13 - 3 1 - 2 +8.5 +3.9 +4.2
  Jan 15, 2025 79   South Carolina W 66-63 68%     14 - 3 2 - 2 +7.9 -3.1 +10.9
  Jan 18, 2025 6   Tennessee W 76-75 24%     15 - 3 3 - 2 +18.1 +23.1 -4.9
  Jan 21, 2025 5   @ Alabama L 87-103 13%     15 - 4 3 - 3 +6.2 +9.4 -1.0
  Jan 25, 2025 22   Kentucky W 74-69 37%     16 - 4 4 - 3 +18.2 +6.3 +12.1
  Feb 01, 2025 34   @ Oklahoma L 67-97 28%     16 - 5 4 - 4 -14.3 -3.8 -8.7
  Feb 04, 2025 4   @ Florida L 73-86 11%    
  Feb 08, 2025 30   Texas L 75-77 45%    
  Feb 11, 2025 1   Auburn L 75-86 16%    
  Feb 15, 2025 6   @ Tennessee L 63-75 11%    
  Feb 19, 2025 22   @ Kentucky L 81-89 20%    
  Feb 22, 2025 26   Mississippi L 74-76 43%    
  Feb 26, 2025 19   @ Texas A&M L 69-78 20%    
  Mar 01, 2025 23   Missouri L 76-79 42%    
  Mar 04, 2025 43   Arkansas W 77-76 54%    
  Mar 08, 2025 37   @ Georgia L 71-76 31%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 0.3 1.3 5th
6th 0.8 1.5 0.1 2.4 6th
7th 0.2 2.8 1.1 0.0 4.1 7th
8th 0.0 1.8 3.7 0.3 5.8 8th
9th 0.6 6.5 2.1 0.1 9.2 9th
10th 0.3 4.6 6.9 0.4 12.2 10th
11th 0.0 2.3 10.7 2.7 0.0 15.9 11th
12th 0.9 7.9 7.1 0.5 16.4 12th
13th 0.3 4.9 9.6 2.0 0.0 16.8 13th
14th 2.7 7.1 3.4 0.1 13.3 14th
15th 0.9 0.9 0.1 1.9 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 16th
Total 3.8 13.9 23.6 25.1 18.6 9.8 4.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.9% 100.0% 2.2% 97.8% 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-8 4.0% 99.8% 0.5% 99.3% 7.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 99.8%
9-9 9.8% 96.2% 0.3% 95.9% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 3.1 2.8 1.1 0.1 0.4 96.2%
8-10 18.6% 79.7% 0.2% 79.5% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 4.4 5.2 2.7 0.0 3.8 79.7%
7-11 25.1% 46.3% 0.3% 46.0% 10.4 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.3 6.4 0.3 13.5 46.2%
6-12 23.6% 14.6% 14.6% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.6 0.3 20.2 14.6%
5-13 13.9% 1.8% 1.8% 11.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 13.6 1.8%
4-14 3.8% 3.8
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 44.7% 0.2% 44.5% 9.3 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.0 3.7 6.4 9.0 10.1 11.9 0.7 55.3 44.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.3%