LSU
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.6#56
Expected Predictive Rating+12.0#48
Pace73.0#74
Improvement+0.2#165

Offense
Total Offense+4.4#68
First Shot+1.0#151
After Offensive Rebound+3.4#21
Layup/Dunks+2.5#97
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#263
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#262
Freethrows+2.5#51
Improvement-0.2#187

Defense
Total Defense+5.2#49
First Shot+4.2#60
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#98
Layups/Dunks+1.8#101
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#316
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#56
Freethrows+0.9#125
Improvement+0.4#154
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.6% 1.6% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 6.8% 6.9% 1.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 34.5% 34.8% 12.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 34.3% 34.6% 12.3%
Average Seed 8.3 8.3 8.8
.500 or above 73.9% 74.3% 39.6%
.500 or above in Conference 18.8% 19.0% 5.4%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 21.2% 21.1% 32.6%
First Four6.3% 6.3% 3.3%
First Round31.3% 31.5% 10.2%
Second Round15.7% 15.8% 3.9%
Sweet Sixteen4.6% 4.7% 1.1%
Elite Eight1.6% 1.6% 0.7%
Final Four0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Orleans (Home) - 98.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 93 - 9
Quad 1b2 - 35 - 12
Quad 24 - 29 - 14
Quad 31 - 010 - 14
Quad 48 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 329   Louisiana Monroe W 95-60 97%     1 - 0 +22.1 +12.9 +7.4
  Nov 10, 2024 297   Alabama St. W 74-61 96%     2 - 0 +2.8 -7.6 +9.9
  Nov 14, 2024 68   @ Kansas St. W 76-65 43%     3 - 0 +22.3 +10.8 +11.8
  Nov 19, 2024 301   Charleston Southern W 77-68 96%     4 - 0 -1.7 +1.7 -3.0
  Nov 22, 2024 33   Pittsburgh L 63-74 39%     4 - 1 +1.4 -1.6 +2.7
  Nov 24, 2024 84   Central Florida W 109-102 3OT 61%     5 - 1 +13.7 +9.9 +1.9
  Nov 29, 2024 292   Northwestern St. W 77-53 95%     6 - 1 +14.1 +0.4 +13.8
  Dec 03, 2024 63   Florida St. W 85-75 64%     7 - 1 +15.8 +12.6 +2.8
  Dec 08, 2024 192   Florida Gulf Coast W 80-71 90%     8 - 1 +4.7 +6.5 -1.6
  Dec 14, 2024 49   SMU L 64-74 47%     8 - 2 +0.3 -7.3 +7.9
  Dec 17, 2024 344   Stetson W 99-53 98%     9 - 2 +31.2 +17.2 +13.9
  Dec 22, 2024 345   New Orleans W 89-65 99%    
  Dec 29, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 85-51 99.9%   
  Jan 04, 2025 50   Vanderbilt W 80-78 58%    
  Jan 07, 2025 55   @ Missouri L 75-78 38%    
  Jan 11, 2025 27   @ Mississippi L 71-78 27%    
  Jan 14, 2025 29   Arkansas L 76-77 49%    
  Jan 18, 2025 25   @ Texas A&M L 68-75 24%    
  Jan 25, 2025 8   @ Alabama L 78-89 16%    
  Jan 29, 2025 1   Auburn L 74-84 17%    
  Feb 01, 2025 31   Texas W 74-73 50%    
  Feb 05, 2025 32   @ Georgia L 70-76 29%    
  Feb 08, 2025 27   Mississippi L 74-75 47%    
  Feb 12, 2025 29   @ Arkansas L 74-80 28%    
  Feb 15, 2025 34   @ Oklahoma L 72-78 30%    
  Feb 18, 2025 69   South Carolina W 74-70 65%    
  Feb 22, 2025 7   Florida L 77-83 31%    
  Feb 25, 2025 3   Tennessee L 67-75 23%    
  Mar 01, 2025 28   @ Mississippi St. L 72-79 27%    
  Mar 04, 2025 9   @ Kentucky L 77-88 17%    
  Mar 08, 2025 25   Texas A&M L 71-72 46%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.5 0.1 2.0 4th
5th 0.2 1.4 1.0 0.1 2.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 1.9 0.4 0.0 3.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.7 1.2 0.1 4.5 7th
8th 0.1 2.2 2.8 0.3 5.4 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 4.0 1.2 0.0 6.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 3.4 3.2 0.2 0.0 7.1 10th
11th 0.1 2.2 5.2 1.1 0.0 8.5 11th
12th 0.0 1.0 5.1 3.1 0.1 9.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 3.9 5.1 0.9 0.0 10.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.5 3.2 6.2 2.3 0.1 12.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.8 3.2 5.7 3.0 0.4 13.1 15th
16th 0.3 1.4 3.4 4.4 2.4 0.4 0.0 12.4 16th
Total 0.3 1.4 4.2 8.2 11.9 14.7 15.3 13.9 11.2 8.4 5.2 2.9 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 77.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 51.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 35.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 11.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 100.0% 21.6% 78.4% 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 0.3% 100.0% 7.8% 92.2% 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 0.6% 100.0% 2.2% 97.8% 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 1.3% 100.0% 4.5% 95.5% 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 2.9% 99.9% 1.2% 98.6% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-8 5.2% 99.0% 1.2% 97.8% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.7 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.0%
9-9 8.4% 95.4% 0.4% 95.0% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 2.6 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.4 95.4%
8-10 11.2% 77.4% 0.2% 77.2% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.5 2.7 1.4 0.0 2.5 77.3%
7-11 13.9% 40.2% 0.1% 40.1% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.9 0.3 8.3 40.1%
6-12 15.3% 11.3% 0.1% 11.2% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 13.6 11.2%
5-13 14.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.9% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 14.6 0.9%
4-14 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 11.9 0.0%
3-15 8.2% 8.2
2-16 4.2% 4.2
1-17 1.4% 1.4
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 34.5% 0.3% 34.2% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 2.0 3.3 4.7 5.7 5.6 5.3 5.7 0.7 0.0 65.5 34.3%