Oklahoma
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.2#34
Expected Predictive Rating+16.1#20
Pace68.1#189
Improvement+1.2#129

Offense
Total Offense+8.4#21
First Shot+7.3#23
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#121
Layup/Dunks+3.8#55
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#275
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#133
Freethrows+4.1#11
Improvement+0.1#181

Defense
Total Defense+4.8#56
First Shot+4.5#54
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#142
Layups/Dunks-1.0#213
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#118
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#123
Freethrows+3.2#15
Improvement+1.1#125
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 1.2% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 4.1% 13.0% 3.0%
Top 6 Seed 18.8% 41.8% 15.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 81.6% 95.3% 79.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 81.5% 95.2% 79.8%
Average Seed 8.1 7.0 8.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 20.0% 45.3% 16.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.0% 0.9%
First Four11.6% 5.0% 12.5%
First Round76.4% 93.3% 74.3%
Second Round42.4% 59.4% 40.2%
Sweet Sixteen14.0% 22.9% 12.9%
Elite Eight5.5% 8.9% 5.0%
Final Four1.8% 2.3% 1.7%
Championship Game0.5% 0.6% 0.5%
National Champion0.2% 0.0% 0.2%

Next Game: Auburn (Away) - 11.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 85 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 38 - 11
Quad 23 - 111 - 12
Quad 33 - 014 - 12
Quad 47 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 349   Lindenwood W 93-60 99%     1 - 0 +18.1 +11.0 +5.6
  Nov 11, 2024 293   Northwestern St. W 73-57 97%     2 - 0 +6.4 -1.1 +7.8
  Nov 16, 2024 334   Stetson W 85-64 99%     3 - 0 +7.3 +3.2 +4.1
  Nov 21, 2024 343   Texas A&M - Commerce W 84-56 99%     4 - 0 +13.7 +6.5 +7.5
  Nov 27, 2024 66   Providence W 79-77 69%     5 - 0 +10.1 +9.8 +0.2
  Nov 28, 2024 10   Arizona W 82-77 33%     6 - 0 +22.8 +17.9 +4.9
  Nov 29, 2024 27   Louisville W 69-64 45%     7 - 0 +19.4 +10.3 +9.7
  Dec 03, 2024 99   Georgia Tech W 76-61 84%     8 - 0 +17.4 +11.6 +6.9
  Dec 07, 2024 320   Alcorn St. W 94-78 98%     9 - 0 +4.1 +13.9 -10.3
  Dec 14, 2024 102   Oklahoma St. W 80-65 79%     10 - 0 +19.6 +9.6 +9.8
  Dec 18, 2024 18   Michigan W 87-86 39%     11 - 0 +17.1 +21.8 -4.6
  Dec 22, 2024 341   Central Arkansas W 89-66 99%     12 - 0 +8.7 +6.1 +1.7
  Dec 29, 2024 348   Prairie View W 89-67 99%     13 - 0 +7.1 +13.2 -5.0
  Jan 04, 2025 5   @ Alabama L 79-107 20%     13 - 1 0 - 1 -5.8 +6.5 -9.6
  Jan 08, 2025 19   Texas A&M L 78-80 49%     13 - 2 0 - 2 +11.5 +20.2 -8.9
  Jan 11, 2025 37   @ Georgia L 62-72 45%     13 - 3 0 - 3 +4.5 +0.1 +4.2
  Jan 15, 2025 30   Texas L 73-77 56%     13 - 4 0 - 4 +7.6 +1.8 +6.0
  Jan 18, 2025 79   South Carolina W 82-62 79%     14 - 4 1 - 4 +24.9 +16.4 +9.2
  Jan 25, 2025 43   @ Arkansas W 65-62 46%     15 - 4 2 - 4 +17.1 +5.9 +11.5
  Jan 28, 2025 19   @ Texas A&M L 68-75 31%     15 - 5 2 - 5 +11.4 +11.4 -0.6
  Feb 01, 2025 57   Vanderbilt W 97-67 72%     16 - 5 3 - 5 +37.3 +21.3 +14.2
  Feb 04, 2025 1   @ Auburn L 72-84 11%    
  Feb 08, 2025 6   Tennessee L 65-69 37%    
  Feb 12, 2025 23   @ Missouri L 74-78 32%    
  Feb 15, 2025 71   LSU W 79-71 78%    
  Feb 18, 2025 4   @ Florida L 73-82 19%    
  Feb 22, 2025 35   Mississippi St. W 76-73 62%    
  Feb 26, 2025 22   Kentucky L 82-83 52%    
  Mar 01, 2025 26   @ Mississippi L 71-75 34%    
  Mar 05, 2025 23   Missouri W 76-75 54%    
  Mar 08, 2025 30   @ Texas L 72-75 35%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 3rd
4th 0.2 0.7 0.1 1.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 0.6 0.0 2.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 2.2 0.1 3.3 6th
7th 0.3 3.0 1.3 0.0 4.7 7th
8th 0.0 2.1 4.9 0.4 7.4 8th
9th 0.7 6.9 3.0 0.1 10.6 9th
10th 0.3 4.4 8.0 0.5 13.2 10th
11th 0.0 2.2 10.6 3.1 0.0 15.9 11th
12th 1.1 7.7 6.5 0.3 15.6 12th
13th 0.4 4.4 7.2 1.6 0.0 13.6 13th
14th 0.1 2.2 5.1 2.1 0.1 9.6 14th
15th 0.3 1.3 0.7 0.0 2.4 15th
16th 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
Total 0.5 4.0 11.4 19.5 23.8 20.8 12.5 5.5 1.6 0.4 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.4% 100.0% 8.6% 91.4% 3.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 1.6% 100.0% 2.5% 97.5% 4.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-8 5.5% 100.0% 2.0% 98.0% 5.1 0.4 1.2 2.0 1.4 0.5 0.0 100.0%
9-9 12.5% 99.9% 1.2% 98.7% 6.1 0.2 0.8 2.8 3.9 3.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
8-10 20.8% 99.1% 0.7% 98.4% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.6 5.2 6.6 4.2 0.9 0.0 0.2 99.1%
7-11 23.8% 94.0% 0.5% 93.5% 9.1 0.1 0.4 1.4 4.2 8.0 6.5 1.8 1.4 94.0%
6-12 19.5% 75.0% 0.4% 74.7% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.5 5.5 5.9 0.1 4.9 74.9%
5-13 11.4% 33.4% 0.3% 33.1% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.7 0.4 7.6 33.2%
4-14 4.0% 5.3% 5.3% 11.1 0.2 0.0 3.8 5.3%
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 81.6% 0.7% 80.9% 8.1 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.7 6.3 8.5 10.9 12.4 14.9 13.5 10.6 0.5 18.4 81.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%