Oklahoma
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.3#34
Expected Predictive Rating+24.1#3
Pace67.9#215
Improvement+0.3#153

Offense
Total Offense+7.9#25
First Shot+7.0#25
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#127
Layup/Dunks+3.4#64
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#306
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#137
Freethrows+4.6#5
Improvement+1.0#108

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#67
First Shot+3.7#71
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#128
Layups/Dunks-1.8#249
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#89
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#154
Freethrows+3.5#13
Improvement-0.7#248
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
#1 Seed 1.1% 2.4% 0.7%
Top 2 Seed 4.9% 10.2% 3.6%
Top 4 Seed 24.4% 41.2% 20.3%
Top 6 Seed 48.6% 68.9% 43.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 86.4% 95.2% 84.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 86.2% 95.1% 84.0%
Average Seed 6.4 5.3 6.7
.500 or above 99.1% 99.9% 98.9%
.500 or above in Conference 43.1% 64.5% 37.8%
Conference Champion 0.8% 2.1% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 6.9% 2.6% 7.9%
First Four8.0% 3.4% 9.1%
First Round82.1% 93.4% 79.3%
Second Round52.6% 66.3% 49.2%
Sweet Sixteen22.2% 31.4% 19.9%
Elite Eight8.2% 12.9% 7.0%
Final Four3.0% 4.9% 2.5%
Championship Game1.0% 1.8% 0.8%
National Champion0.3% 0.5% 0.2%

Next Game: Alabama (Away) - 19.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 74 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 9
Quad 25 - 113 - 11
Quad 32 - 015 - 11
Quad 47 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 347   Lindenwood W 93-60 99%     1 - 0 +18.2 +9.9 +6.8
  Nov 11, 2024 292   Northwestern St. W 73-57 97%     2 - 0 +6.0 -2.5 +8.8
  Nov 16, 2024 350   Stetson W 85-64 99%     3 - 0 +5.9 +3.6 +2.4
  Nov 21, 2024 355   Texas A&M - Commerce W 84-56 99%     4 - 0 +12.1 +5.6 +6.8
  Nov 27, 2024 75   Providence W 79-77 67%     5 - 0 +9.6 +11.6 -2.0
  Nov 28, 2024 12   Arizona W 82-77 35%     6 - 0 +21.2 +17.9 +3.3
  Nov 29, 2024 54   Louisville W 69-64 59%     7 - 0 +14.9 +7.8 +7.7
  Dec 03, 2024 109   Georgia Tech W 76-61 86%     8 - 0 +15.9 +10.6 +6.4
  Dec 07, 2024 337   Alcorn St. W 94-78 98%     9 - 0 +1.9 +10.5 -9.0
  Dec 14, 2024 96   Oklahoma St. W 80-65 75%     10 - 0 +20.2 +8.9 +11.1
  Dec 18, 2024 11   Michigan W 87-86 34%     11 - 0 +17.4 +22.1 -4.7
  Dec 22, 2024 338   Central Arkansas W 89-66 98%     12 - 0 +8.8 +6.9 +1.0
  Dec 29, 2024 340   Prairie View W 89-67 98%     13 - 0 +7.7 +11.0 -2.1
  Jan 04, 2025 8   @ Alabama L 79-88 20%    
  Jan 08, 2025 23   Texas A&M W 71-70 52%    
  Jan 11, 2025 45   @ Georgia L 72-74 43%    
  Jan 15, 2025 32   Texas W 74-71 60%    
  Jan 18, 2025 63   South Carolina W 75-68 74%    
  Jan 25, 2025 30   @ Arkansas L 74-78 37%    
  Jan 28, 2025 23   @ Texas A&M L 68-73 31%    
  Feb 01, 2025 49   Vanderbilt W 81-76 67%    
  Feb 04, 2025 1   @ Auburn L 72-86 10%    
  Feb 08, 2025 3   Tennessee L 68-73 33%    
  Feb 12, 2025 52   @ Missouri L 76-77 48%    
  Feb 15, 2025 55   LSU W 78-72 70%    
  Feb 18, 2025 7   @ Florida L 73-83 18%    
  Feb 22, 2025 25   Mississippi St. W 75-74 53%    
  Feb 26, 2025 18   Kentucky W 82-81 50%    
  Mar 01, 2025 35   @ Mississippi L 73-76 39%    
  Mar 05, 2025 52   Missouri W 79-74 69%    
  Mar 08, 2025 32   @ Texas L 71-74 38%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 1.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.8 1.8 0.3 0.0 5.5 4th
5th 0.3 2.8 3.2 0.6 0.0 7.0 5th
6th 0.1 2.1 4.2 1.3 0.1 7.8 6th
7th 0.8 4.7 2.6 0.2 8.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 3.0 4.7 0.6 8.5 8th
9th 0.0 1.4 5.6 1.9 0.0 9.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 4.1 3.8 0.3 8.6 10th
11th 0.1 1.9 5.3 1.3 0.0 8.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 4.2 2.9 0.1 7.9 12th
13th 0.3 2.3 3.9 0.8 0.0 7.3 13th
14th 0.1 1.4 3.0 1.3 0.1 6.0 14th
15th 0.1 0.8 2.0 1.5 0.2 4.7 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 3.2 16th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.2 4.7 7.9 11.8 14.6 14.8 14.1 11.1 8.5 5.0 2.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 80.4% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 47.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1
14-4 30.1% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 5.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 100.0% 17.6% 82.4% 1.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 0.4% 100.0% 14.1% 85.9% 1.8 0.1 0.2 0.1 100.0%
14-4 1.2% 100.0% 6.5% 93.5% 2.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 2.6% 100.0% 6.2% 93.8% 2.6 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 100.0%
12-6 5.0% 100.0% 4.1% 95.9% 3.1 0.2 1.0 2.1 1.4 0.3 0.0 100.0%
11-7 8.5% 100.0% 2.8% 97.2% 3.8 0.1 0.7 2.8 3.0 1.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
10-8 11.1% 100.0% 1.7% 98.3% 4.5 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.6 3.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 100.0%
9-9 14.1% 100.0% 1.0% 99.0% 5.4 0.0 0.6 2.1 4.8 4.3 1.9 0.4 0.0 100.0%
8-10 14.8% 99.5% 0.4% 99.2% 6.8 0.1 0.4 1.7 4.2 3.9 2.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.1 99.5%
7-11 14.6% 96.6% 0.3% 96.3% 8.4 0.0 0.4 1.1 2.1 2.9 4.2 2.6 0.7 0.0 0.5 96.6%
6-12 11.8% 83.3% 0.1% 83.2% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.1 3.4 3.1 0.1 2.0 83.3%
5-13 7.9% 50.3% 0.1% 50.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.9 0.3 4.0 50.2%
4-14 4.7% 12.9% 12.9% 11.1 0.0 0.5 0.1 4.1 12.9%
3-15 2.2% 0.4% 0.4% 11.0 0.0 2.2 0.4%
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 86.4% 1.2% 85.2% 6.4 1.1 3.9 8.6 10.9 12.4 11.7 8.4 6.7 8.0 6.9 7.2 0.5 13.6 86.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%