Auburn
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+24.2#2
Expected Predictive Rating+26.0#1
Pace70.0#123
Improvement-2.5#282

Offense
Total Offense+15.3#1
First Shot+12.3#3
After Offensive Rebound+3.0#24
Layup/Dunks+6.2#18
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#110
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#55
Freethrows+0.5#145
Improvement-3.0#313

Defense
Total Defense+9.0#12
First Shot+7.2#18
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#57
Layups/Dunks+2.4#87
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#279
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#14
Freethrows+0.5#144
Improvement+0.5#163
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 41.2% 42.6% 32.9%
#1 Seed 89.3% 90.0% 85.3%
Top 2 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Top 4 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Top 6 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.1 1.1 1.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round99.6% 99.6% 99.7%
Sweet Sixteen83.1% 83.1% 83.1%
Elite Eight64.7% 64.5% 65.4%
Final Four45.9% 45.5% 48.0%
Championship Game28.4% 28.3% 28.5%
National Champion16.3% 16.2% 17.1%

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a10 - 510 - 5
Quad 1b7 - 017 - 5
Quad 26 - 023 - 5
Quad 32 - 025 - 5
Quad 44 - 029 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 213   Vermont W 94-43 99%     1 - 0 +45.3 +21.1 +24.4
  Nov 09, 2024 4   Houston W 74-69 56%     2 - 0 +27.8 +22.0 +6.4
  Nov 13, 2024 133   Kent St. W 79-56 98%     3 - 0 +22.0 +14.7 +9.7
  Nov 18, 2024 121   North Alabama W 102-69 98%     4 - 0 +32.6 +21.5 +9.2
  Nov 25, 2024 10   Iowa St. W 83-81 70%     5 - 0 +20.7 +19.9 +0.7
  Nov 26, 2024 36   North Carolina W 85-72 85%     6 - 0 +26.3 +12.0 +13.6
  Nov 27, 2024 50   Memphis W 90-76 89%     7 - 0 +25.0 +27.8 -2.2
  Dec 04, 2024 1   @ Duke L 78-84 31%     7 - 1 +23.4 +27.0 -4.3
  Dec 08, 2024 226   Richmond W 98-54 99%     8 - 1 +37.8 +17.9 +17.8
  Dec 14, 2024 37   Ohio St. W 91-53 85%     9 - 1 +51.3 +30.2 +23.8
  Dec 17, 2024 252   Georgia St. W 100-59 99%     10 - 1 +33.3 +14.6 +16.2
  Dec 21, 2024 16   Purdue W 87-69 75%     11 - 1 +35.3 +22.3 +13.6
  Dec 30, 2024 247   Monmouth W 87-58 99%     12 - 1 +21.5 +11.2 +10.9
  Jan 04, 2025 19   Missouri W 84-68 83%     13 - 1 1 - 0 +29.9 +13.0 +16.9
  Jan 07, 2025 44   @ Texas W 87-82 82%     14 - 1 2 - 0 +19.3 +18.9 +0.3
  Jan 11, 2025 68   @ South Carolina W 66-63 89%     15 - 1 3 - 0 +13.7 +10.7 +3.5
  Jan 14, 2025 33   Mississippi St. W 88-66 89%     16 - 1 4 - 0 +32.9 +17.9 +14.7
  Jan 18, 2025 31   @ Georgia W 70-68 76%     17 - 1 5 - 0 +18.7 +10.2 +8.6
  Jan 25, 2025 6   Tennessee W 53-51 74%     18 - 1 6 - 0 +19.5 -3.5 +23.2
  Jan 29, 2025 80   @ LSU W 87-74 90%     19 - 1 7 - 0 +22.8 +16.7 +5.5
  Feb 01, 2025 29   @ Mississippi W 92-82 75%     20 - 1 8 - 0 +27.0 +26.8 +0.2
  Feb 04, 2025 40   Oklahoma W 98-70 90%     21 - 1 9 - 0 +37.9 +23.3 +13.2
  Feb 08, 2025 3   Florida L 81-90 63%     21 - 2 9 - 1 +11.7 +12.5 -0.4
  Feb 11, 2025 48   @ Vanderbilt W 80-68 83%     22 - 2 10 - 1 +25.9 +19.5 +7.5
  Feb 15, 2025 5   @ Alabama W 94-85 52%     23 - 2 11 - 1 +32.8 +19.4 +12.4
  Feb 19, 2025 38   Arkansas W 67-60 90%     24 - 2 12 - 1 +17.3 +2.4 +15.0
  Feb 22, 2025 31   Georgia W 82-70 88%     25 - 2 13 - 1 +23.2 +18.7 +4.9
  Feb 26, 2025 29   Mississippi W 106-76 88%     26 - 2 14 - 1 +41.5 +36.7 +4.4
  Mar 01, 2025 14   @ Kentucky W 94-78 65%     27 - 2 15 - 1 +36.4 +22.6 +12.9
  Mar 04, 2025 22   @ Texas A&M L 72-83 69%     27 - 3 15 - 2 +8.1 +19.0 -12.2
  Mar 08, 2025 5   Alabama L 91-93 OT 72%     27 - 4 15 - 3 +16.3 +10.2 +6.3
Projected Record 27 - 4 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 100.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 100.0    100.0
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 100.0% 36.3% 63.7% 1.1 89.3 10.7 100.0%
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 36.3% 63.7% 1.1 89.3 10.7 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 36.3% 100.0% 1.1 92.4 7.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 23.6% 100.0% 1.1 89.9 10.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 25.5% 100.0% 1.1 86.5 13.5
Lose Out 14.7% 100.0% 1.1 85.3 14.7