Auburn
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+23.2#1
Expected Predictive Rating+31.0#1
Pace70.8#110
Improvement-2.7#303

Offense
Total Offense+14.9#1
First Shot+12.0#2
After Offensive Rebound+2.9#30
Layup/Dunks+6.1#15
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#111
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#55
Freethrows+0.4#152
Improvement-3.7#341

Defense
Total Defense+8.3#14
First Shot+6.7#23
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#59
Layups/Dunks+2.2#88
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#286
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#15
Freethrows+0.4#159
Improvement+1.0#130
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 49.1% 50.0% 41.3%
#1 Seed 91.1% 91.6% 87.2%
Top 2 Seed 99.9% 99.9% 99.6%
Top 4 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Top 6 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.1 1.1 1.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 87.4% 89.2% 72.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round99.5% 99.5% 99.3%
Sweet Sixteen81.7% 81.9% 79.4%
Elite Eight61.5% 61.8% 59.8%
Final Four43.2% 43.4% 41.1%
Championship Game28.3% 28.4% 27.0%
National Champion17.4% 17.7% 14.9%

Next Game: Oklahoma (Home) - 88.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a12 - 312 - 3
Quad 1b6 - 017 - 4
Quad 26 - 023 - 4
Quad 32 - 025 - 4
Quad 45 - 029 - 4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 240   Vermont W 94-43 99%     1 - 0 +43.9 +21.9 +22.3
  Nov 09, 2024 3   Houston W 74-69 52%     2 - 0 +27.7 +22.5 +5.8
  Nov 13, 2024 148   Kent St. W 79-56 98%     3 - 0 +21.5 +17.4 +6.5
  Nov 18, 2024 155   North Alabama W 102-69 98%     4 - 0 +31.1 +20.8 +8.4
  Nov 25, 2024 8   Iowa St. W 83-81 69%     5 - 0 +20.0 +18.9 +1.1
  Nov 26, 2024 36   North Carolina W 85-72 84%     6 - 0 +25.7 +13.4 +11.6
  Nov 27, 2024 41   Memphis W 90-76 86%     7 - 0 +25.7 +27.7 -1.4
  Dec 04, 2024 2   @ Duke L 78-84 41%     7 - 1 +19.5 +26.9 -8.1
  Dec 08, 2024 220   Richmond W 98-54 99%     8 - 1 +38.3 +19.1 +17.1
  Dec 14, 2024 25   Ohio St. W 91-53 79%     9 - 1 +52.6 +32.0 +23.4
  Dec 17, 2024 278   Georgia St. W 100-59 99%     10 - 1 +32.0 +14.8 +14.8
  Dec 21, 2024 9   Purdue W 87-69 69%     11 - 1 +36.0 +24.5 +12.1
  Dec 30, 2024 253   Monmouth W 87-58 99%     12 - 1 +21.2 +12.0 +9.7
  Jan 04, 2025 23   Missouri W 84-68 84%     13 - 1 1 - 0 +28.6 +15.1 +13.3
  Jan 07, 2025 30   @ Texas W 87-82 74%     14 - 1 2 - 0 +21.6 +20.3 +1.2
  Jan 11, 2025 79   @ South Carolina W 66-63 89%     15 - 1 3 - 0 +12.8 +10.7 +2.7
  Jan 14, 2025 35   Mississippi St. W 88-66 88%     16 - 1 4 - 0 +32.7 +18.1 +14.3
  Jan 18, 2025 37   @ Georgia W 70-68 79%     17 - 1 5 - 0 +16.5 +10.4 +6.3
  Jan 25, 2025 6   Tennessee W 53-51 72%     18 - 1 6 - 0 +19.1 -2.1 +21.4
  Jan 29, 2025 71   @ LSU W 87-74 88%     19 - 1 7 - 0 +23.3 +16.6 +6.1
  Feb 01, 2025 26   @ Mississippi W 92-82 72%     20 - 1 8 - 0 +27.1 +28.0 -1.0
  Feb 04, 2025 34   Oklahoma W 84-72 89%    
  Feb 08, 2025 4   Florida W 84-78 73%    
  Feb 11, 2025 57   @ Vanderbilt W 86-75 84%    
  Feb 15, 2025 5   @ Alabama W 89-88 52%    
  Feb 19, 2025 43   Arkansas W 85-71 91%    
  Feb 22, 2025 37   Georgia W 81-67 90%    
  Feb 26, 2025 26   Mississippi W 82-71 86%    
  Mar 01, 2025 22   @ Kentucky W 88-83 66%    
  Mar 04, 2025 19   @ Texas A&M W 77-72 65%    
  Mar 08, 2025 5   Alabama W 91-85 73%    
Projected Record 28 - 3 16 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1.0 7.7 20.4 27.8 22.6 7.9 87.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.9 4.5 1.9 0.2 9.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.2 2.1 3rd
4th 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 5.2 12.3 22.3 28.0 22.6 7.9 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 7.9    7.9
17-1 100.0% 22.6    22.6
16-2 99.4% 27.8    26.8 1.1
15-3 91.6% 20.4    15.4 4.9 0.2
14-4 62.5% 7.7    2.9 3.7 1.0 0.1
13-5 19.6% 1.0    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 87.4% 87.4 75.6 10.0 1.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 7.9% 100.0% 46.8% 53.2% 1.0 7.7 0.2 100.0%
17-1 22.6% 100.0% 41.6% 58.4% 1.0 21.6 0.9 100.0%
16-2 28.0% 100.0% 39.2% 60.8% 1.1 26.0 2.0 100.0%
15-3 22.3% 100.0% 34.1% 65.9% 1.1 20.1 2.2 100.0%
14-4 12.3% 100.0% 30.2% 69.8% 1.1 10.6 1.7 100.0%
13-5 5.2% 100.0% 26.0% 74.0% 1.2 4.1 1.1 0.1 100.0%
12-6 1.5% 100.0% 19.9% 80.1% 1.3 1.0 0.5 100.0%
11-7 0.3% 100.0% 28.1% 71.9% 1.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
10-8 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0% 0.0 0.0
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 37.1% 62.9% 1.1 91.1 8.8 0.1 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.7% 100.0% 1.0 96.5 3.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.3% 100.0% 1.0 99.2 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.7% 100.0% 1.0 96.4 3.6