Auburn
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +14.9 #27
Expected Predictive Rating +15.0 #33
Pace 69.6 #164
Improvement +0.8 #140

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #14 A- A A- A+ B-
Defense #56 C+ C B B+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #117 1.30 #48 +4.4 #46
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #251 0.85 #57 -0.6 #204
Three Pointers 42% #157 1.07 #99 +1.8 #117
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #43 +5.7 #43
Freethrows 23.4 #3 76% #65 17.9 #2
Second Chance 39.0% #12 1.08 #129 0.42 #32
Turnovers 13.8% #37
Total Offense +10.2 #14

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #246 1.05 #59 +3.3 #75
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #127 0.85 #310 -1.5 #298
Three Pointers 42% #155 0.99 #137 +0.2 #170
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #122 +2.0 #122
Freethrows 14.1 #36 72% #156 10.2 #38
Second Chance 29.5% #133 1.08 #232 0.32 #180
Turnovers 18.8% #60
Total Defense +4.7 #56

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.3% #99 -0.6% #111
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 9.7% #43 -3.3% #120
Possession Length 16.2 #72 18.2 #306
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 #42 0.15 #114
Improvement -1.2 #253 +2.0 #63

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 1.0% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 6.5% 14.9% 4.4%
Top 6 Seed 31.7% 52.2% 26.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 81.0% 93.9% 77.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 80.2% 93.5% 76.8%
Average Seed 7.3 6.4 7.6
.500 or above 92.9% 98.5% 91.4%
.500 or above in Conference 63.2% 83.4% 58.0%
Conference Champion 1.2% 4.6% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.1% 1.4%
First Four8.7% 4.3% 9.8%
First Round77.5% 92.2% 73.7%
Second Round49.5% 64.4% 45.7%
Sweet Sixteen17.0% 24.6% 15.0%
Elite Eight6.2% 9.6% 5.4%
Final Four2.3% 3.8% 1.9%
Championship Game0.7% 1.2% 0.5%
National Champion0.2% 0.4% 0.2%

Next Game: Florida (Away) - 20.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 93 - 9
Quad 1b4 - 37 - 12
Quad 25 - 212 - 14
Quad 31 - 014 - 14
Quad 45 - 019 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 269 Bethune-Cookman W 95 - 90 OT 98% +1  1 - 0 -4 +6 D B+ B- -11 F B+ C
 Thu, Nov 6 208 Merrimack W 95 - 57 96% +18  2 - 0 +32 +24 B A+ A+ +9 A+ C+ C+
 Tue, Nov 11 215 Wofford W 93 - 62 96% +19  3 - 0 +25 +13 B A+ C +11 A- A A-
 Sun, Nov 16 4 Houston L 72 - 73 26% -3  3 - 1 +21 +14 C+ B A+ +6 B- A+ B+
 Wed, Nov 19 325 Jackson St. W 112 - 66 99% +26  4 - 1 +33 +24 A+ C- A+ +6 C D A+
 Mon, Nov 24 68 Oregon W 84 - 73 74% +3  5 - 1 +19 +15 C A+ A+ +4 A+ F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 1 Michigan L 72 - 102 17% -21  5 - 2 -5 +11 B+ C A+ -16 A- F C-
 Wed, Nov 26 18 St. John's W 85 - 74 41% +2  6 - 2 +28 +25 A+ A+ A +4 A+ F A+
 Wed, Dec 3 26 North Carolina St. W 83 - 73 60% +5  7 - 2 +22 +15 A+ C F +7 A A+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 2 @Arizona L 68 - 97 14% -15  7 - 3 -3 +4 F A- D -5 F C A-
 Sat, Dec 13 247 Chattanooga W 92 - 78 96% +7  8 - 3 +9 +16 A+ A+ F -7 C D+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 5 Purdue L 60 - 88 27% -13  8 - 4 -7 -1 C F B -8 D F A+
 Mon, Dec 29 177 Queens W 106 - 65 95% +30  9 - 4 +37 +21 A+ B C +14 A+ C A
 Sat, Jan 3 24 @Georgia L 100 - 104 OT 35% -1  9 - 5 0 - 1 +15 +21 A+ B A- -5 F B+ C
 Tue, Jan 6 34 Texas A&M L 88 - 90 65% +0  9 - 6 0 - 2 +9 +16 C A+ B+ -7 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 20 Arkansas W 95 - 73 52% +15  10 - 6 1 - 2 +36 +24 A+ A+ A+ +12 A+ A+ B+
 Wed, Jan 14 50 @Missouri L 74 - 84 54% -4  10 - 7 1 - 3 +4 +8 C A- C+ -4 F A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 17 69 South Carolina W 71 - 67 82% +5  11 - 7 2 - 3 +9 +1 D+ F C- +8 A C A+
 Tue, Jan 20 62 @Mississippi W 78 - 66 61% +5  12 - 7 3 - 3 +24 +16 D- A+ A+ +9 A+ B- F
 Sat, Jan 24 10 @Florida L 75 - 84 21%
 Wed, Jan 28 38 Texas W 83 - 78 68%
 Sat, Jan 31 22 @Tennessee L 73 - 78 33%
 Sat, Feb 7 17 Alabama W 89 - 88 50%
 Tue, Feb 10 21 Vanderbilt W 83 - 82 52%
 Sat, Feb 14 20 @Arkansas L 82 - 87 30%
 Wed, Feb 18 76 @Mississippi St. W 79 - 75 65%
 Sat, Feb 21 25 Kentucky W 80 - 78 56%
 Tue, Feb 24 57 @Oklahoma W 80 - 78 57%
 Sat, Feb 28 62 Mississippi W 80 - 71 80%
 Tue, Mar 3 43 LSU W 82 - 76 71%
 Sat, Mar 7 17 @Alabama L 86 - 92 28%
Totals 18 - 13 9 - 9 +15 +10 A- A A- +5 C+ C B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.2 1st
2nd 0.2 1.7 1.4 0.2 3.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.6 3.0 0.6 0.0 5.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.3 1.8 0.1 6.9 4th
5th 0.1 3.6 4.6 0.3 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 7.0 1.9 0.0 10.3 6th
7th 0.3 5.4 5.5 0.2 11.4 7th
8th 0.0 2.3 8.1 1.7 0.0 12.2 8th
9th 0.6 5.8 5.0 0.2 11.6 9th
10th 0.1 2.7 6.3 1.1 0.0 10.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 4.6 2.0 0.0 7.3 11th
12th 0.1 1.9 2.9 0.3 0.0 5.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 2.1 0.7 0.0 3.3 13th
14th 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.1 1.7 14th
15th 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.9 15th
16th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 16th
Total 0.1 0.5 2.1 5.6 11.5 17.0 21.1 18.9 12.9 7.0 2.6 0.7 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-4 70.0% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 21.3% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.2% 1.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.7% 100.0% 20.0% 80.0% 3.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 100.0%
13-5 2.6% 100.0% 14.0% 86.0% 4.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-6 7.0% 100.0% 12.7% 87.3% 4.9 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.8 2.5 1.7 0.4 0.0 100.0%
11-7 12.9% 99.9% 7.8% 92.1% 5.7 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.7 4.9 2.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-8 18.9% 99.7% 4.2% 95.5% 6.6 0.1 0.3 2.3 5.8 6.5 3.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.7%
9-9 21.1% 96.7% 2.8% 93.9% 8.0 0.0 0.7 2.2 4.5 5.4 4.7 2.4 0.5 0.7 96.6%
8-10 17.0% 82.4% 1.8% 80.5% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.6 4.5 4.4 0.0 3.0 82.0%
7-11 11.5% 36.4% 1.1% 35.2% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 2.7 0.3 7.3 35.6%
6-12 5.6% 6.8% 0.6% 6.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 5.2 6.2%
5-13 2.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 11.0 0.0 2.1 0.2%
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 81.0% 4.3% 76.8% 7.3 19.0 80.2%