Arizona
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+15.2#17
Expected Predictive Rating+5.5#97
Pace77.8#18
Improvement+2.4#46

Offense
Total Offense+7.7#27
First Shot+5.4#47
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#56
Layup/Dunks+8.7#3
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#268
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#306
Freethrows+2.3#61
Improvement+0.1#162

Defense
Total Defense+7.5#13
First Shot+6.5#20
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#95
Layups/Dunks+8.0#12
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#289
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#233
Freethrows+0.8#139
Improvement+2.3#30
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
#1 Seed 1.8% 1.8% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 5.3% 5.4% 0.9%
Top 4 Seed 18.9% 19.2% 7.3%
Top 6 Seed 36.7% 37.1% 17.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 70.0% 70.5% 47.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 67.3% 67.9% 45.5%
Average Seed 6.4 6.4 7.4
.500 or above 81.6% 82.3% 54.7%
.500 or above in Conference 80.3% 80.6% 67.3%
Conference Champion 7.9% 8.0% 3.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.5% 1.6%
First Four6.5% 6.5% 7.6%
First Round67.4% 68.0% 44.7%
Second Round49.6% 50.0% 31.6%
Sweet Sixteen25.7% 26.0% 14.3%
Elite Eight12.5% 12.7% 5.7%
Final Four5.8% 5.9% 2.8%
Championship Game2.6% 2.6% 0.9%
National Champion1.1% 1.1% 0.5%

Next Game: Central Michigan (Home) - 97.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 93 - 9
Quad 1b3 - 36 - 12
Quad 25 - 211 - 14
Quad 34 - 015 - 14
Quad 44 - 019 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 350   Canisius W 93-64 99%     1 - 0 +13.7 +8.2 +4.6
  Nov 09, 2024 315   Old Dominion W 102-44 99%     2 - 0 +46.3 +18.0 +25.3
  Nov 15, 2024 36   @ Wisconsin L 88-103 50%     2 - 1 +0.3 +7.2 -4.7
  Nov 22, 2024 2   Duke L 55-69 39%     2 - 2 +4.0 -6.0 +9.5
  Nov 27, 2024 122   Davidson W 104-71 88%     3 - 2 +35.5 +19.3 +12.6
  Nov 28, 2024 34   Oklahoma L 77-82 61%     3 - 3 +7.3 +9.1 -1.9
  Nov 29, 2024 39   West Virginia L 76-83 OT 63%     3 - 4 +4.7 +7.0 -2.1
  Dec 07, 2024 218   Southern Utah W 102-66 96%     4 - 4 +30.4 +16.7 +10.4
  Dec 14, 2024 14   UCLA L 54-57 50%     4 - 5 +12.3 -3.1 +15.2
  Dec 18, 2024 112   Samford W 96-64 91%     5 - 5 +32.4 +17.8 +13.9
  Dec 21, 2024 225   Central Michigan W 87-65 98%    
  Dec 30, 2024 88   TCU W 80-68 86%    
  Jan 04, 2025 26   @ Cincinnati L 73-75 44%    
  Jan 07, 2025 39   @ West Virginia W 75-74 52%    
  Jan 11, 2025 84   Central Florida W 82-71 86%    
  Jan 14, 2025 12   Baylor W 79-77 58%    
  Jan 18, 2025 24   @ Texas Tech L 76-78 44%    
  Jan 21, 2025 97   @ Oklahoma St. W 84-77 73%    
  Jan 25, 2025 75   Colorado W 82-71 83%    
  Jan 27, 2025 5   Iowa St. L 80-81 46%    
  Feb 01, 2025 62   @ Arizona St. W 79-76 61%    
  Feb 04, 2025 40   @ BYU W 81-80 53%    
  Feb 08, 2025 24   Texas Tech W 79-75 65%    
  Feb 11, 2025 68   @ Kansas St. W 78-74 64%    
  Feb 15, 2025 6   Houston L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 17, 2025 12   @ Baylor L 76-80 36%    
  Feb 22, 2025 40   BYU W 84-77 73%    
  Feb 26, 2025 66   Utah W 84-74 81%    
  Mar 01, 2025 5   @ Iowa St. L 77-84 26%    
  Mar 04, 2025 62   Arizona St. W 82-73 80%    
  Mar 08, 2025 10   @ Kansas L 76-81 33%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.5 2.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 7.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 2.7 3.9 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 10.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.1 5.0 2.5 0.4 0.0 11.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.8 5.2 3.0 0.4 0.0 11.7 4th
5th 0.1 2.0 5.2 3.4 0.5 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 4.5 3.9 0.8 0.0 10.5 6th
7th 0.5 3.4 4.3 1.2 0.1 9.4 7th
8th 0.2 1.9 3.9 1.5 0.1 7.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 3.0 1.9 0.2 0.0 5.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.0 0.3 0.0 4.6 10th
11th 0.1 1.0 1.6 0.6 0.0 3.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.7 0.0 2.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.2 5.4 8.1 10.9 12.9 13.8 13.3 11.5 8.4 5.2 2.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 98.3% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 95.0% 1.1    0.9 0.1 0.0
17-3 76.0% 2.1    1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0
16-4 46.9% 2.5    1.1 1.0 0.3 0.0
15-5 17.9% 1.5    0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.3% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.9% 7.9 4.1 2.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.3% 100.0% 31.0% 69.0% 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.1% 100.0% 26.8% 73.2% 1.8 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.8% 100.0% 28.6% 71.4% 2.4 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 5.2% 100.0% 18.6% 81.4% 3.2 0.4 1.1 1.7 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 8.4% 100.0% 16.4% 83.6% 4.2 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.6 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 11.5% 99.8% 13.6% 86.2% 5.3 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.2 3.2 2.7 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-7 13.3% 98.9% 9.4% 89.5% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.2 3.1 3.6 2.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.8%
12-8 13.8% 93.5% 5.7% 87.8% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.3 2.5 3.1 2.4 1.8 0.6 0.0 0.9 93.1%
11-9 12.9% 75.6% 3.5% 72.2% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.7 2.8 2.8 0.2 3.1 74.8%
10-10 10.9% 36.6% 2.1% 34.5% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 2.0 0.5 6.9 35.2%
9-11 8.1% 8.5% 1.9% 6.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 7.4 6.7%
8-12 5.4% 1.4% 0.8% 0.6% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.3 0.6%
7-13 3.2% 0.3% 0.3% 12.0 0.0 0.0 3.2
6-14 1.9% 0.3% 0.3% 14.7 0.0 0.0 1.9
5-15 0.8% 0.8
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 70.0% 8.1% 61.9% 6.4 1.8 3.5 5.7 7.9 9.1 8.6 8.9 6.9 5.3 5.3 5.9 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.0 67.3%