Arizona
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.0#12
Expected Predictive Rating+15.8#25
Pace73.5#53
Improvement-0.1#200

Offense
Total Offense+10.5#14
First Shot+7.8#22
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#35
Layup/Dunks+9.8#1
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#225
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#272
Freethrows+1.8#79
Improvement+1.9#96

Defense
Total Defense+7.5#25
First Shot+6.2#25
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#77
Layups/Dunks+7.6#12
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#282
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#246
Freethrows+0.8#119
Improvement-2.0#280
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.7% 1.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 7.3% 11.9% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 57.9% 79.3% 25.0%
Top 6 Seed 94.1% 99.6% 85.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 4.3 3.7 5.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round87.8% 91.4% 82.2%
Sweet Sixteen52.3% 56.5% 45.7%
Elite Eight21.8% 23.7% 18.9%
Final Four9.6% 10.4% 8.4%
Championship Game3.3% 3.4% 3.1%
National Champion1.2% 1.3% 1.2%

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 85 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 48 - 11
Quad 24 - 112 - 12
Quad 35 - 017 - 12
Quad 44 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 356   Canisius W 93-64 99.6%    1 - 0 +11.6 +6.7 +4.1
  Nov 09, 2024 278   Old Dominion W 102-44 99%     2 - 0 +48.7 +20.0 +25.7
  Nov 15, 2024 15   @ Wisconsin L 88-103 42%     2 - 1 +5.1 +10.2 -2.8
  Nov 22, 2024 1   Duke L 55-69 28%     2 - 2 +9.9 -5.8 +15.3
  Nov 27, 2024 140   Davidson W 104-71 93%     3 - 2 +34.1 +19.1 +11.4
  Nov 28, 2024 40   Oklahoma L 77-82 70%     3 - 3 +7.6 +9.2 -1.6
  Nov 29, 2024 43   West Virginia L 76-83 OT 72%     3 - 4 +4.8 +9.7 -4.7
  Dec 07, 2024 304   Southern Utah W 102-66 99%     4 - 4 +25.0 +16.6 +5.1
  Dec 14, 2024 24   UCLA L 54-57 59%     4 - 5 +12.6 -5.5 +17.8
  Dec 18, 2024 123   Samford W 96-64 95%     5 - 5 +31.5 +18.9 +12.0
  Dec 21, 2024 219   Central Michigan W 94-41 98%     6 - 5 +47.1 +18.3 +28.9
  Dec 30, 2024 77   TCU W 90-81 89%     7 - 5 1 - 0 +13.6 +29.3 -15.0
  Jan 04, 2025 45   @ Cincinnati W 72-67 64%     8 - 5 2 - 0 +19.3 +9.2 +10.1
  Jan 07, 2025 43   @ West Virginia W 75-56 63%     9 - 5 3 - 0 +33.5 +20.3 +15.0
  Jan 11, 2025 78   Central Florida W 88-80 89%     10 - 5 4 - 0 +12.6 +8.9 +3.1
  Jan 14, 2025 27   Baylor W 81-70 72%     11 - 5 5 - 0 +23.0 +15.4 +8.0
  Jan 18, 2025 7   @ Texas Tech L 54-70 33%     11 - 6 5 - 1 +6.5 -7.6 +13.5
  Jan 21, 2025 91   @ Oklahoma St. W 92-78 82%     12 - 6 6 - 1 +22.4 +27.6 -4.9
  Jan 25, 2025 85   Colorado W 78-63 90%     13 - 6 7 - 1 +18.9 +13.2 +6.4
  Jan 27, 2025 10   Iowa St. W 86-75 OT 58%     14 - 6 8 - 1 +26.9 +13.1 +12.6
  Feb 01, 2025 73   @ Arizona St. W 81-72 77%     15 - 6 9 - 1 +19.3 +7.8 +10.9
  Feb 04, 2025 20   @ BYU W 85-74 45%     16 - 6 10 - 1 +30.2 +15.8 +14.1
  Feb 08, 2025 7   Texas Tech W 82-73 54%     17 - 6 11 - 1 +26.0 +13.9 +11.9
  Feb 11, 2025 59   @ Kansas St. L 70-73 70%     17 - 7 11 - 2 +9.5 -0.3 +10.1
  Feb 15, 2025 4   Houston L 58-62 42%     17 - 8 11 - 3 +16.1 +2.2 +13.4
  Feb 17, 2025 27   @ Baylor W 74-67 52%     18 - 8 12 - 3 +24.5 +10.1 +14.6
  Feb 22, 2025 20   BYU L 95-96 66%     18 - 9 12 - 4 +12.7 +26.1 -13.4
  Feb 26, 2025 64   Utah W 83-66 87%     19 - 9 13 - 4 +23.0 +14.0 +9.2
  Mar 01, 2025 10   @ Iowa St. L 67-84 37%     19 - 10 13 - 5 +4.4 +4.0 +1.1
  Mar 04, 2025 73   Arizona St. W 113-100 89%     20 - 10 14 - 5 +17.8 +36.9 -19.7
  Mar 08, 2025 18   @ Kansas L 76-83 44%     20 - 11 14 - 6 +12.6 +19.6 -7.5
Projected Record 20 - 11 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 100.0 100.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 100.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 100.0% 100.0% 11.9% 88.1% 4.3 0.7 6.5 22.2 28.5 22.6 13.7 5.5 0.4 0.0 100.0%
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 11.9% 88.1% 4.3 0.7 6.5 22.2 28.5 22.6 13.7 5.5 0.4 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 11.9% 100.0% 2.7 4.6 34.8 49.2 10.9 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 17.7% 100.0% 3.5 0.9 10.4 42.4 36.0 9.5 0.7 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 31.0% 100.0% 4.2 0.1 1.6 22.0 41.8 26.2 7.4 0.8 0.0
Lose Out 39.5% 100.0% 5.3 0.1 5.0 19.9 32.3 28.5 13.3 0.9