Norfolk St.
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.4 #291
Expected Predictive Rating -9.4 #315
Pace 67.3 #227
Improvement -5.2 #355

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #316 D- C- D C F
Defense #233 D C C D+ F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #205 0.96 #354 -4.3 #323
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% #17 0.77 #151 +4.5 #20
Three Pointers 31% #349 1.03 #166 -5.0 #326
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #317 -4.8 #318
Freethrows 19.5 #83 65% #356 12.7 #180
Second Chance 30.3% #193 0.97 #277 0.29 #233
Turnovers 18.3% #292
Total Offense -5.7 #316

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #190 1.35 #356 -3.8 #307
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #363 0.76 #195 +2.9 #9
Three Pointers 49% #18 0.95 #101 -2.4 #288
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #282 -3.2 #282
Freethrows 19.2 #281 73% #174 13.9 #279
Second Chance 33.8% #304 0.98 #93 0.33 #214
Turnovers 16.1% #203
Total Defense -1.8 #233

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.0% #332 2.0% #344
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.7% #285 4.3% #260
Possession Length 18.2 #265 17.5 #216
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #121 0.24 #346
Improvement +0.6 #149 -5.9 #362

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.0% 27.5% 21.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 34.3% 36.1% 13.0%
.500 or above in Conference 94.9% 96.1% 81.4%
Conference Champion 30.5% 32.0% 12.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 1.7%
First Four23.2% 23.4% 20.9%
First Round15.1% 15.5% 10.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Coppin St. (Home) - 92.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 40 - 7
Quad 413 - 913 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 138 William & Mary L 78 - 81 29% +4  0 - 1 -5 -2 A+ F F -3 C+ F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 240 @Old Dominion L 57 - 60 28% -1  0 - 2 -4 -6 F B F +1 B B- D+
 Fri, Nov 14 157 @Towson L 41 - 51 16% +1  0 - 3 -7 -20 F B+ A+ +12 A+ A+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 230 Hampton W 62 - 60 48% +2  1 - 3 -5 -4 D F B -1 F B+ B
 Sun, Nov 23 108 @Wyoming L 67 - 75 9% -11  1 - 4 -1 -0 D- C- D+ -1 A+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 29 2 @Arizona L 61 - 98 1% -17  1 - 5 -11 -3 C+ B- C- -5 C C C
 Sat, Dec 6 231 @James Madison L 67 - 68 27% -4  1 - 6 -2 -3 B+ C F +1 B+ D- F
 Wed, Dec 10 41 @Baylor L 67 - 97 3% -16  1 - 7 -15 -7 F D- C -6 D- B- B
 Thu, Dec 18 287 Grambling St. L 68 - 80 49% -14  1 - 8 -19 -10 F D+ B -8 F A+ F
 Fri, Dec 19 325 Jackson St. W 82 - 72 61% +11  2 - 8 -0 +0 B F F -1 C- D- A-
 Sun, Dec 21 256 @UTEP W 72 - 71 30% +3  3 - 8 -1 -1 C+ F F -0 F D- A+
 Mon, Dec 22 123 UC Irvine L 70 - 89 18% -16  3 - 9 -17 +4 B A+ F -22 F F D-
 Sun, Dec 28 312 @Louisiana L 54 - 63 45% -9  3 - 10 -15 -9 F F C -8 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 346 @NC Central L 67 - 69 56% -3  3 - 11 0 - 1 -11 -7 F F D+ -4 F A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 355 @Delaware St. W 66 - 64 64% -1  4 - 11 1 - 1 -9 -8 C- F F -1 F F A+
 Mon, Jan 12 330 Maryland Eastern Shore L 70 - 74 72% -0  4 - 12 1 - 2 -18 -0 F A+ B+ -18 F C- F
 Sat, Jan 17 359 @South Carolina St. W 89 - 82 68% -0  5 - 12 2 - 2 -5 +9 C+ A+ F -14 F C C
 Sat, Jan 24 364 Coppin St. W 79 - 64 92%
 Mon, Jan 26 360 Morgan St. W 79 - 68 85%
 Sat, Jan 31 265 @Howard L 67 - 72 33%
 Sat, Feb 7 346 NC Central W 74 - 67 76%
 Sat, Feb 14 355 Delaware St. W 72 - 62 82%
 Mon, Feb 16 330 @Maryland Eastern Shore W 66 - 65 51%
 Sat, Feb 21 359 South Carolina St. W 77 - 66 84%
 Sat, Feb 28 364 @Coppin St. W 76 - 67 80%
 Mon, Mar 2 360 @Morgan St. W 76 - 71 69%
 Thu, Mar 5 265 Howard W 70 - 69 55%
Totals 12 - 15 9 - 5 -7 -6 D- C- D -2 D C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.6 11.7 12.3 3.7 30.5 1st
2nd 0.1 2.5 12.4 10.8 1.3 0.0 27.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.3 11.2 9.9 1.4 24.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 5.5 4.9 0.5 11.9 4th
5th 0.3 2.0 1.7 0.1 4.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 1.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.8 9.5 18.8 25.3 23.8 13.7 3.8 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2 99.1% 3.7    3.5 0.2
11-3 90.2% 12.3    8.5 3.7 0.2
10-4 49.2% 11.7    3.7 5.9 2.1 0.1
9-5 10.2% 2.6    0.2 0.9 1.1 0.3 0.0
8-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 30.5% 30.5 15.9 10.7 3.4 0.5 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2 3.8% 48.5% 48.5% 15.5 0.0 0.9 0.9 1.9
11-3 13.7% 42.8% 42.8% 16.0 0.1 5.8 7.8
10-4 23.8% 32.7% 32.7% 16.0 0.1 7.7 16.0
9-5 25.3% 23.8% 23.8% 16.0 6.0 19.3
8-6 18.8% 18.6% 18.6% 16.0 3.5 15.3
7-7 9.5% 15.5% 15.5% 16.0 1.5 8.1
6-8 3.8% 10.6% 10.6% 16.0 0.4 3.4
5-9 1.1% 11.6% 11.6% 16.0 0.1 1.0
4-10 0.2% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 27.0% 27.0% 0.0% 16.0 73.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.8% 100.0% 15.5 2.2 46.8 51.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9%