Norfolk St.
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.8#243
Expected Predictive Rating-6.0#252
Pace67.2#247
Improvement-2.8#334

Offense
Total Offense-4.6#294
First Shot-3.6#283
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#248
Layup/Dunks-4.6#326
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#10
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#269
Freethrows-1.9#297
Improvement+1.6#75

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#170
First Shot+1.6#118
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#311
Layups/Dunks-0.4#192
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#55
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#151
Freethrows-0.6#228
Improvement-4.4#360
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 40.9% 43.3% 37.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 75.9% 84.9% 65.2%
.500 or above in Conference 97.8% 98.5% 97.0%
Conference Champion 54.8% 58.2% 50.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four26.9% 24.9% 29.2%
First Round27.9% 31.4% 23.6%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana (Away) - 54.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 41 - 8
Quad 415 - 616 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 118 William & Mary L 78-81 32%     0 - 1 -2.9 -1.6 -1.0
  Tue, Nov 11 217 @Old Dominion L 57-60 34%     0 - 2 -3.5 -6.2 +2.1
  Fri, Nov 14 128 @Towson L 41-51 17%     0 - 3 -4.8 -20.9 +14.3
  Fri, Nov 21 238 Hampton W 62-60 61%     1 - 3 -5.6 -6.1 +0.8
  Sun, Nov 23 103 @Wyoming L 67-75 12%     1 - 4 -0.3 +0.8 -1.5
  Sat, Nov 29 2 @Arizona L 61-98 1%     1 - 5 -10.7 -2.7 -5.3
  Sat, Dec 6 198 @James Madison L 67-68 30%     1 - 6 -0.4 -2.8 +2.3
  Wed, Dec 10 27 @Baylor L 67-97 3%     1 - 7 -12.2 -6.3 -3.5
  Thu, Dec 18 245 Grambling St. L 68-80 50%     1 - 8 -16.8 -9.6 -6.6
  Fri, Dec 19 324 Jackson St. W 82-72 69%     2 - 8 +0.2 +2.6 -2.8
  Sun, Dec 21 202 @UTEP W 72-71 31%     3 - 8 +1.3 +1.8 -0.5
  Mon, Dec 22 131 UC Irvine L 70-89 26%     3 - 9 -17.2 +4.3 -22.1
  Sun, Dec 28 314 @Louisiana W 64-63 54%    
  Sat, Jan 3 348 @NC Central W 70-65 66%    
  Sat, Jan 10 346 @Delaware St. W 69-65 66%    
  Mon, Jan 12 345 Maryland Eastern Shore W 70-60 83%    
  Sat, Jan 17 358 @South Carolina St. W 75-68 75%    
  Sat, Jan 24 364 Coppin St. W 79-62 95%    
  Mon, Jan 26 360 Morgan St. W 80-66 90%    
  Sat, Jan 31 265 @Howard L 68-70 42%    
  Sat, Feb 7 348 NC Central W 73-62 83%    
  Sat, Feb 14 346 Delaware St. W 72-62 83%    
  Mon, Feb 16 345 @Maryland Eastern Shore W 67-63 65%    
  Sat, Feb 21 358 South Carolina St. W 78-65 88%    
  Sat, Feb 28 364 @Coppin St. W 76-65 85%    
  Mon, Mar 2 360 @Morgan St. W 77-69 76%    
  Thu, Mar 5 265 Howard W 71-67 64%    
Projected Record 14 - 13 11 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 6.4 14.8 17.2 11.6 3.6 54.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 7.2 10.8 6.7 1.3 27.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.0 4.3 1.2 0.1 10.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.8 1.9 0.3 0.0 4.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.1 1.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.5 3.6 7.6 12.9 18.5 21.5 18.6 11.6 3.6 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 3.6    3.6
13-1 100.0% 11.6    11.0 0.5
12-2 92.7% 17.2    13.9 3.3 0.0
11-3 68.7% 14.8    8.7 5.6 0.4 0.0
10-4 34.9% 6.4    2.2 3.3 1.0 0.1
9-5 8.9% 1.1    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
8-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 54.8% 54.8 39.6 13.1 1.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 3.6% 65.4% 65.4% 14.5 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.4 1.3
13-1 11.6% 57.4% 57.4% 15.6 0.2 2.1 4.3 4.9
12-2 18.6% 52.0% 52.0% 15.9 0.0 0.8 8.8 8.9
11-3 21.5% 43.2% 43.2% 16.0 0.3 9.0 12.2
10-4 18.5% 36.3% 36.3% 16.0 0.1 6.7 11.8
9-5 12.9% 28.7% 28.7% 16.0 0.0 3.7 9.2
8-6 7.6% 21.8% 21.8% 16.0 1.7 6.0
7-7 3.6% 17.0% 17.0% 16.0 0.6 3.0
6-8 1.5% 12.9% 12.9% 16.0 0.2 1.3
5-9 0.5% 7.9% 7.9% 16.0 0.0 0.5
4-10 0.2% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-11 0.0% 0.0
2-12 0.0% 0.0
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 40.9% 40.9% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.3 1.1 4.1 35.4 59.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.6% 100.0% 14.0 1.9 19.4 53.9 24.6 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%