Norfolk St.
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.7 307
Expected Predictive Rating -10.7 327
Pace 70.0 138
Improvement -5.0 350

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D #331 D C- D C D+
Defense C- #243 D C- C D D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 130 49% 357 -2.7 277
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 45 38% 173 +2.8 54
Three Pointers 32% 344 34% 168 -4.6 325
1st FG Attempt 0.93 317 -4.5 317
Second Chance 29.6% 209 0.97 268 0.29 230
Turnovers 19.1% 311
Freethrows 0.34 81 67% 341 0.23 162
Total Offense -6.5 331

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 178 68% 362 -3.9 313
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% 361 40% 255 +2.7 9
Three Pointers 48% 17 33% 118 -2.9 306
1st FG Attempt 1.10 308 -4.1 307
Second Chance 33.0% 287 1.00 135 0.33 235
Turnovers 17.1% 172
Freethrows 0.36 318 71% 92 0.25 300
Total Defense -2.2 243

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.8 291 +1.0 347
Shot Type Accuracy -3.7 307 +2.9 291
Possession Length 17.4 192 17.1 153
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 97 0.24 343
Improvement -0.1 #187 -4.9 #357

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18% 18% 16%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 9% 10% 2%
.500 or above in Conference 89% 93% 68%
Conference Champion 11% 13% 2%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 1%
First Four17% 17% 16%
First Round9% 9% 8%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Delaware St. (Home) - 81.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 40 - 8
Quad 412 - 912 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 145 William & Mary L 78 - 81 26% +4  75% 0 - 1 D+ -5 D- -6 B+ F F C+ +2 B- F A
 Tue, Nov 11 253 @Old Dominion L 57 - 60 26% -1  34% 0 - 2 D+ -5 F+ -9 F B+ F B- +4 B- B- C-
 Fri, Nov 14 172 @Towson L 41 - 51 15% +1  52% 0 - 3 D+ -8 F -24 F B+ A+ A+ +14 A+ A+ D-
 Fri, Nov 21 248 Hampton W 62 - 60 46% +2  74% 1 - 3 D+ -6 D- -7 D D B C+ +1 F B C+
 Sun, Nov 23 106 @Wyoming L 67 - 75 8% -11  4% 1 - 4 C -1 D+ -2 D+ C D+ C+ +1 A+ F A-
 Sat, Nov 29 2 @Arizona L 61 - 98 0% -17  7% 1 - 5 D -9 D -4 B- B- C+ C- -2 C+ C- D+
 Sat, Dec 6 222 @James Madison L 67 - 68 21% -4  6% 1 - 6 C -1 D -5 B+ C F B- +4 B+ D F
 Wed, Dec 10 42 @Baylor L 67 - 97 2% -16  1% 1 - 7 F+ -14 F+ -9 F D C+ C- -3 D+ B- B-
 Thu, Dec 18 285 Grambling St. L 68 - 80 44% -14  0% 1 - 8 F -19 F -11 F C B- D- -7 F A+ F
 Fri, Dec 19 343 Jackson St. W 82 - 72 63% +11  83% 2 - 8 C- -2 D+ -4 B- F F+ C+ +1 D C- B+
 Sun, Dec 21 239 @UTEP W 72 - 71 24% +3  66% 3 - 8 C -0 C- -2 B- F D- C+ +2 D- D- A+
 Mon, Dec 22 119 UC Irvine L 70 - 89 14% -16  0% 3 - 9 F+ -16 C+ +3 B A F F -19 F F D
 Sun, Dec 28 290 @Louisiana L 54 - 63 34% -9  0% 3 - 10 D- -13 F -12 F D- C+ C- -3 F A F
 Sat, Jan 3 339 @NC Central L 67 - 69 50% -3  16% 3 - 11 0 - 1 D -11 F -10 F F C+ C -0 D+ A B-
 Sat, Jan 10 359 @Delaware St. W 66 - 64 64% -1  34% 4 - 11 1 - 1 D -10 F -11 C F+ F C+ +1 F F A+
 Mon, Jan 12 348 Maryland Eastern Shore L 70 - 74 74% -0  38% 4 - 12 1 - 2 F -19 D+ -3 F A+ B- F -16 D- D+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 358 @South Carolina St. W 89 - 82 63% -0  39% 5 - 12 2 - 2 D+ -5 B +7 C A+ F F -12 F D+ C-
 Sat, Jan 24 364 Coppin St. W 103 - 76 90% +15  96% 6 - 12 3 - 2 C+ +4 B- +4 A+ F F C- -3 F D+ C+
 Mon, Jan 26 352 Morgan St. L 78 - 79 78% +3  60% 6 - 13 3 - 3 F -18 F -13 F C+ B+ D+ -5 F B+ C-
 Sat, Jan 31 237 @Howard L 60 - 88 24% -15  0% 6 - 14 3 - 4 F -29 F -13 F F C- F -17 F F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 339 NC Central W 75 - 68 72% +3  70% 7 - 14 4 - 4 D+ -8 F -10 D+ C F B- +2 D- B+ A-
 Sat, Feb 14 359 Delaware St. W 72 - 62 82%
 Mon, Feb 16 348 @Maryland Eastern Shore W 66 - 65 52%
 Sat, Feb 21 358 South Carolina St. W 77 - 68 81%
 Sat, Feb 28 364 @Coppin St. W 77 - 69 76%
 Mon, Mar 2 352 @Morgan St. W 78 - 76 57%
 Thu, Mar 5 237 Howard L 70 - 71 45%
Totals 11 - 16 8 - 6 -9 D -6 D C- D C- -2 D C- C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D F+ C C D 40% 28% 32% D+ D C- D+ C- D B- D- C C- F C- C+ D 39% 13% 48% D- D D+ C+ C- C D B- D
0.99 49% 38% 34% -4 -1 0.93 30% 1.0 .29 19% .34 67% .23 1.12 68% 40% 33% +3 +1 1.10 33% 1.0 .33 17% .36 71% .24
Nov
8		 William & Mary D- D D A+ B+ 40% 12% 48% C+ B+ C+ F F F A+ F A+ C+ B+ F C+ B 42% 2% 56% D- B- D F F A F B+ F
1.01 55% 33% 46% +7 +1 1.18 33% 0.4 .12 25% .54 55% .29 1.05 53% 100% 32% -2 +3 1.02 30% 1.7 .52 22% .57 71% .40
Nov
11		 Old Dominion F+ F B F F 42% 27% 31% D F A D+ B+ F F+ A+ D+ B- F C- A+ B 35% 19% 47% D- B- D- A+ B- C- F C- F
0.96 42% 42% 21% -12 -1 0.78 42% 0.9 .39 20% .27 85% .23 1.01 80% 38% 15% -6 0 0.91 30% 0.8 .23 15% .38 74% .28
Nov
14		 Towson F F F+ F F 33% 37% 29% F F A- C+ B+ A+ F+ F F A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 22% 16% 61% D A+ B- A+ A+ D- F+ A D+
0.69 6% 32% 13% -29 -3 0.39 33% 1.1 .35 10% .21 27% .06 0.86 55% 25% 20% -16 -1 0.69 34% 0.4 .15 13% .35 61% .21
Nov
21		 Hampton D- F C+ A+ D+ 43% 30% 27% D D C- F D B B- F F+ C+ F B- D F 21% 28% 51% B F B+ C+ B C+ B A+ A+
1.00 47% 38% 42% -1 -1 0.98 28% 0.8 .22 15% .42 50% .21 0.97 78% 33% 36% +5 -2 1.07 29% 0.9 .26 19% .30 53% .16
Nov
23		 Wyoming D+ F B+ B D+ 43% 25% 32% D D+ B F+ C D+ A+ B- A+ C+ A+ F A- A+ 49% 2% 49% F A+ F F F A- F C- F
1.00 42% 45% 36% -4 0 0.93 31% 0.7 .22 18% .53 72% .38 1.12 38% 100% 29% -12 +3 0.84 46% 1.3 .60 21% .59 77% .45
Nov
29		 Arizona D B B F B+ 29% 49% 22% F B- D+ A+ B- C+ F F F C- D- D A+ B- 57% 25% 18% D- C+ B- D C- D+ F B F
0.81 56% 41% 25% -2 -4 0.89 20% 1.3 .25 19% .15 22% .03 1.30 72% 46% 22% +7 +1 1.18 39% 1.1 .42 13% .70 70% .49
Dec
6		 James Madison D A+ C+ B A 42% 40% 18% F B+ C C- C F C- F F B- F B+ A+ B+ 31% 15% 54% C+ B+ A- F D F F A+ C
1.03 74% 39% 38% +8 -2 1.13 31% 1.0 .31 23% .34 47% .16 1.05 73% 29% 23% -5 0 0.92 22% 1.6 .36 12% .39 55% .21
Dec
10		 Baylor F+ A+ D+ F D+ 8% 72% 21% F F D C- D C+ A+ D A+ C- F B F+ D- 29% 37% 34% B D+ C B- B- B- C F D+
0.88 100% 37% 18% -3 -9 0.79 24% 0.9 .21 16% .41 69% .28 1.27 88% 36% 40% +11 -3 1.19 38% 1.1 .41 16% .33 81% .26
Dec
18		 Grambling St. F C- F F F 46% 26% 28% D F C C C B- A- F F D- F A+ F F 41% 19% 41% C- F A+ D+ A+ F C D C-
0.92 57% 23% 21% -10 0 0.82 34% 1.0 .34 18% .41 44% .18 1.08 73% 10% 41% +5 0 1.13 7% 1.0 .07 12% .34 77% .26
Dec
19		 Jackson St. D+ B+ B- A+ A 20% 37% 43% F B- D+ F F F+ A- A+ A+ C+ D+ A+ F F+ 24% 34% 42% A- D D C C- B+ C- C+ C-
1.12 70% 39% 48% +12 -3 1.18 32% 0.7 .24 19% .41 83% .34 0.99 58% 24% 43% +1 -3 0.98 29% 1.0 .29 22% .28 75% .21
Dec
21		 UTEP C- F A+ A B- 38% 24% 38% C B- D+ F F D- A+ F A C+ F A+ B D 36% 18% 46% F D- F B+ D- A+ F A+ D
1.04 41% 64% 41% +4 -1 1.09 30% 0.7 .21 22% .55 63% .35 1.02 78% 22% 30% +2 0 1.06 39% 0.9 .34 23% .50 44% .22
Dec
22		 UC Irvine C+ D D- A+ A- 28% 41% 30% F B F A+ A F A+ A A+ F F F B F 44% 16% 40% F F F F F D D+ F F
1.03 46% 32% 50% +1 -3 0.98 23% 1.9 .43 22% .38 80% .30 1.31 73% 50% 30% +6 +1 1.16 41% 1.3 .55 15% .34 85% .29
Dec
28		 Louisiana F F F B F 41% 18% 41% D+ F D+ F D- C+ D D D- C- C D- F F 24% 24% 52% D F C A+ A F D- D F+
0.92 33% 13% 39% -12 0 0.80 30% 0.8 .24 17% .33 69% .23 1.07 55% 45% 42% +7 -1 1.13 26% 0.4 .10 12% .29 73% .21
Jan
3		 NC Central F F A F F 43% 26% 32% D+ F B- F F C+ B F C C F A- A+ C- 50% 14% 36% F D+ F A+ A B- F A F
1.00 50% 50% 27% -4 0 0.94 40% 0.6 .24 18% .36 65% .24 1.03 68% 29% 22% -3 +2 1.00 45% 0.3 .14 19% .46 68% .31
Jan
10		 Delaware St. F C- A+ C C 49% 22% 29% C- C F+ D- F+ F A D B+ C+ C+ F A+ F 42% 15% 44% F F F F F A+ A- F C+
0.93 60% 56% 33% +5 +1 1.12 24% 1.0 .24 28% .42 67% .28 0.91 50% 100% 24% -1 +1 1.02 32% 1.0 .32 27% .21 82% .17
Jan
12		 Maryland Eastern Shore D+ D D- F F 44% 26% 31% D+ F B- A+ A+ B- A+ D A+ F F A+ C- D 44% 14% 42% F D- F+ B D+ F F D+ F
1.10 53% 30% 17% -12 0 0.77 34% 2.0 .69 14% .60 70% .42 1.16 68% 0% 33% -1 +1 1.02 35% 0.8 .29 14% .68 76% .51
Jan
17		 South Carolina St. B C- F+ B C- 62% 8% 30% A- C C- A+ A+ F A+ A- A+ F F B- D+ F 31% 18% 51% F F F A D+ C- F+ F F
1.24 61% 33% 36% +2 +3 1.14 38% 1.8 .67 21% .83 79% .65 1.14 67% 33% 36% +3 0 1.08 42% 0.8 .33 21% .39 82% .32
Jan
24		 Coppin St. B- A- F A+ A+ 39% 7% 54% B+ A+ C- F F F A+ C+ A+ C- F A B+ F 37% 17% 46% F+ F C- D- D+ C+ F A+ F
1.28 72% 0% 56% +21 +2 1.48 35% 0.8 .27 24% .70 77% .54 0.95 76% 25% 29% +1 0 1.04 30% 1.1 .33 24% .62 47% .29
Jan
26		 Morgan St. F F A+ F F 62% 9% 29% A- F C- B C+ B+ D F F D+ F+ D+ D+ F 34% 20% 46% F+ F A+ F B+ C- F+ D+ F
1.03 47% 60% 12% -15 +3 0.79 34% 1.3 .45 12% .40 59% .24 1.04 65% 40% 35% +3 0 1.08 12% 1.5 .18 18% .42 77% .32
Jan
31		 Howard F F F B+ F 51% 16% 33% C+ F F F F C- B+ C+ B+ F D A F F 50% 9% 41% F+ F F F F A+ F F F
0.86 40% 13% 38% -12 +1 0.82 24% 0.8 .18 20% .39 73% .29 1.26 59% 25% 44% +6 +2 1.18 59% 1.3 .77 27% .57 86% .49
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 NC Central F D A+ D F+ 55% 7% 38% A+ D+ C+ C- C F A+ B+ A+ B- B+ F C+ D- 45% 24% 31% C- D- A- B- B+ A- A- D+ B+
1.05 57% 67% 31% 0 +3 1.07 39% 1.0 .39 28% .52 78% .41 0.95 48% 67% 31% +1 0 1.04 21% 0.8 .18 22% .25 79% .20



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 3.9 7.3 11.2 1st
2nd 0.0 2.7 14.2 1.1 17.9 2nd
3rd 1.0 14.1 6.5 0.0 21.6 3rd
4th 0.2 8.8 13.6 0.3 23.0 4th
5th 0.2 3.8 11.6 1.5 17.0 5th
6th 0.2 1.7 5.0 2.2 9.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 8th
Total 0.3 2.0 9.0 23.5 31.9 24.9 8.4 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4 87.0% 7.3    2.2 3.8 1.3 0.0
9-5 15.6% 3.9    0.1 0.8 1.8 1.1 0.1
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 11.2% 11.2 2.3 4.7 3.0 1.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4 8.4% 31.2% 31.2% 16.0 0.1 2.5 5.8
9-5 24.9% 22.4% 22.4% 16.0 0.0 5.6 19.3
8-6 31.9% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0 5.1 26.8
7-7 23.5% 13.5% 13.5% 16.0 3.2 20.3
6-8 9.0% 13.4% 13.4% 16.0 1.2 7.8
5-9 2.0% 10.8% 10.8% 16.0 0.2 1.8
4-10 0.3% 17.9% 17.9% 16.0 0.1 0.2
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 18.0% 18.0% 0.0% 16.0 82.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.6% 100.0% 16.0 4.2 95.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.9%