Norfolk St.
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#185
Expected Predictive Rating+0.7#158
Pace65.5#258
Improvement-1.4#252

Offense
Total Offense+0.4#173
First Shot+1.3#137
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#246
Layup/Dunks+2.8#83
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#103
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.8#341
Freethrows+3.1#29
Improvement-0.9#241

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#219
First Shot+0.7#155
After Offensive Rebounds-2.4#338
Layups/Dunks+3.8#52
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#67
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#306
Freethrows-1.2#271
Improvement-0.5#212
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 46.4% 47.1% 41.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.7 15.3
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.2%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.7%
Conference Champion 88.9% 91.3% 71.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.9% 1.5% 4.8%
First Round45.8% 46.6% 39.5%
Second Round1.2% 1.3% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maryland Eastern Shore (Away) - 88.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 11 - 4
Quad 32 - 23 - 6
Quad 417 - 420 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 137   James Madison W 83-69 49%     1 - 0 +12.9 +10.0 +3.1
  Nov 12, 2024 208   @ William & Mary L 73-84 44%     1 - 1 -10.9 -4.7 -5.9
  Nov 16, 2024 287   @ Hampton W 67-58 62%     2 - 1 +4.6 +2.2 +3.7
  Nov 20, 2024 78   @ Stanford L 63-70 15%     2 - 2 +2.9 +0.6 +1.6
  Nov 22, 2024 74   @ Grand Canyon L 73-91 15%     2 - 3 -8.0 +6.1 -13.9
  Nov 25, 2024 216   @ UC Davis W 76-55 47%     3 - 3 +20.3 +7.6 +12.8
  Dec 01, 2024 318   @ Stony Brook W 77-66 70%     4 - 3 +4.3 +5.9 -0.7
  Dec 09, 2024 174   Hofstra L 67-80 57%     4 - 4 -16.0 +2.7 -19.9
  Dec 11, 2024 20   @ Baylor L 69-94 4%     4 - 5 -6.7 +2.6 -9.3
  Dec 15, 2024 244   @ Northern Kentucky L 62-71 54%     4 - 6 -11.4 -5.7 -6.2
  Dec 19, 2024 308   Alabama St. W 71-54 75%     5 - 6 +8.5 -1.7 +11.3
  Dec 20, 2024 339   Grambling St. W 76-70 83%     6 - 6 -5.6 +7.3 -12.3
  Dec 29, 2024 107   @ High Point W 77-74 23%     7 - 6 +9.5 +11.0 -1.2
  Dec 31, 2024 6   @ Tennessee L 52-67 3%     7 - 7 +7.1 +2.3 +2.4
  Jan 04, 2025 361   Maryland Eastern Shore W 81-59 94%     8 - 7 1 - 0 +2.8 +3.0 +0.8
  Jan 06, 2025 314   @ Delaware St. W 73-64 69%     9 - 7 2 - 0 +2.7 -6.3 +8.5
  Jan 11, 2025 362   Coppin St. W 92-69 95%     10 - 7 3 - 0 +2.8 +11.0 -8.9
  Jan 13, 2025 329   @ Morgan St. L 74-78 74%     10 - 8 3 - 1 -12.1 -2.4 -9.8
  Jan 25, 2025 310   Howard W 92-75 82%     11 - 8 4 - 1 +5.9 +7.7 -2.1
  Feb 01, 2025 229   South Carolina St. W 67-65 OT 68%     12 - 8 5 - 1 -4.2 -10.1 +5.8
  Feb 03, 2025 295   NC Central W 81-78 79%     13 - 8 6 - 1 -6.8 +10.0 -16.5
  Feb 15, 2025 361   @ Maryland Eastern Shore W 77-64 88%    
  Feb 17, 2025 314   Delaware St. W 78-68 84%    
  Feb 22, 2025 362   @ Coppin St. W 75-61 90%    
  Feb 24, 2025 329   Morgan St. W 83-71 88%    
  Mar 01, 2025 229   @ South Carolina St. L 71-72 48%    
  Mar 03, 2025 295   @ NC Central W 74-70 62%    
  Mar 06, 2025 310   @ Howard W 80-75 66%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 11 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 1.0 12.4 30.7 31.4 13.4 88.9 1st
2nd 0.2 3.4 4.6 0.2 8.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.1 2.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
Total 0.0 0.1 1.3 5.8 17.1 30.9 31.4 13.4 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1 100.0% 13.4    13.4
12-2 100.0% 31.4    31.3 0.1
11-3 99.5% 30.7    23.9 6.8 0.0
10-4 72.8% 12.4    4.1 6.5 1.9 0.0
9-5 17.2% 1.0    0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 88.9% 88.9 72.7 13.6 2.3 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1 13.4% 55.1% 55.1% 13.6 0.5 2.8 3.5 0.6 6.0
12-2 31.4% 50.5% 50.5% 14.6 0.0 0.5 5.5 9.0 0.9 15.6
11-3 30.9% 45.6% 45.6% 15.1 0.1 1.7 8.9 3.4 16.8
10-4 17.1% 39.9% 39.9% 15.5 0.2 3.0 3.6 10.3
9-5 5.8% 34.3% 34.3% 15.7 0.5 1.5 3.8
8-6 1.3% 23.1% 23.1% 15.8 0.1 0.3 1.0
7-7 0.1% 0.0 0.1
6-8 0.0% 0.0
5-9
4-10
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 46.4% 46.4% 0.0% 14.8 0.5 3.4 10.9 22.1 9.6 53.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.4% 100.0% 13.6 6.5 37.8 47.6 8.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.8%