William & Mary
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.3 #138
Expected Predictive Rating +3.7 #108
Pace 82.7 #5
Improvement -1.9 #265

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #174 B- C- D+ C+ B+
Defense #115 C C A C+ D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #105 1.26 #82 +3.8 #60
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #324 0.74 #195 -3.0 #321
Three Pointers 46% #88 0.99 #229 +1.7 #124
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #111 +2.5 #111
Freethrows 18.0 #147 75% #109 13.5 #123
Second Chance 25.9% #303 1.16 #53 0.30 #218
Turnovers 17.6% #258
Total Offense -0.4 #174

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #209 1.25 #290 -1.3 #225
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #353 0.80 #253 +2.3 #27
Three Pointers 49% #20 0.90 #50 -1.0 #220
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #181 +0.1 #179
Freethrows 16.3 #133 71% #115 11.6 #114
Second Chance 31.3% #215 0.99 #109 0.31 #160
Turnovers 20.0% #28
Total Defense +1.7 #115

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.4% #38 1.7% #324
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.4% #142 -1.8% #151
Possession Length 13.6 #2 18.3 #312
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 #38 0.16 #134
Improvement -1.1 #240 -0.8 #245

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.4% 18.0% 11.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 13.1 13.3
.500 or above 98.2% 99.3% 96.6%
.500 or above in Conference 90.7% 95.6% 83.9%
Conference Champion 15.6% 22.2% 6.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round15.4% 18.0% 11.8%
Second Round0.8% 1.0% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hofstra (Home) - 58.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 36 - 57 - 9
Quad 412 - 219 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 291 @Norfolk St. W 81 - 78 71% -4  1 - 0 -1 +1 C- A+ F -2 F A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 120 @Richmond L 86 - 90 34% -1  1 - 1 +2 +7 C- C A+ -5 A+ F A-
 Sat, Nov 15 18 @St. John's L 60 - 93 5% -13  1 - 2 -13 -10 F A+ F +2 C+ A- C
 Wed, Nov 19 129 @Bowling Green W 82 - 74 36% +9  2 - 2 +13 +4 B+ C F +8 A+ F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 256 UTEP W 74 - 63 73% +8  3 - 2 +6 -5 C F F +10 A+ D- A-
 Tue, Nov 25 258 Abilene Christian W 92 - 58 74% +12  4 - 2 +29 +13 A+ C+ C+ +14 B A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 30 240 Old Dominion W 88 - 75 80% +7  5 - 2 +6 +2 B+ F C- +2 C B+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 118 @Duquesne W 83 - 79 33% +8  6 - 2 +10 +5 A+ F F +4 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 72 @George Washington L 86 - 99 18% -4  6 - 3 -2 +7 B B- C+ -8 D- D+ D
 Thu, Dec 18 253 Radford W 96 - 83 81% +3  7 - 3 +5 +4 D- B- A -1 B- F B
 Mon, Dec 29 157 Towson W 84 - 70 66% +8  8 - 3 1 - 0 +11 +13 A+ F A -2 F A+ C
 Wed, Dec 31 242 Stony Brook W 76 - 57 80% +6  9 - 3 2 - 0 +12 +5 A+ F F +8 A A+ B
 Mon, Jan 5 164 @College of Charleston L 79 - 88 45% -6  9 - 4 2 - 1 -6 -5 F C A+ -0 F A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 202 @Monmouth L 70 - 81 54% -3  9 - 5 2 - 2 -11 -2 D+ A F -8 F F D+
 Sat, Jan 10 203 @Drexel L 58 - 64 54% -5  9 - 6 2 - 3 -6 -9 F F F +3 F A- A+
 Thu, Jan 15 304 N.C. A&T W 97 - 89 88% +7  10 - 6 3 - 3 -3 +10 A+ C D+ -14 F C+ A+
 Thu, Jan 22 125 UNC Wilmington W 77 - 70 58% +11  11 - 6 4 - 3 +6 +2 C D+ C +5 A A- A
 Sat, Jan 24 126 Hofstra W 79 - 77 58%
 Thu, Jan 29 184 @Elon W 84 - 83 50%
 Sat, Jan 31 190 Campbell W 87 - 81 72%
 Thu, Feb 5 125 @UNC Wilmington L 74 - 78 36%
 Sat, Feb 7 230 @Hampton W 76 - 74 59%
 Thu, Feb 12 259 @Northeastern W 87 - 83 63%
 Sat, Feb 14 184 Elon W 86 - 80 72%
 Thu, Feb 19 190 @Campbell W 85 - 84 51%
 Thu, Feb 26 259 Northeastern W 90 - 80 81%
 Sat, Feb 28 304 @N.C. A&T W 86 - 79 73%
 Tue, Mar 3 230 Hampton W 79 - 71 78%
Totals 18 - 10 11 - 7 +1 +0 B- C- D+ +2 C C A




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 3.2 6.3 4.7 1.1 15.6 1st
2nd 0.1 4.3 10.4 5.7 1.1 0.0 21.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.2 9.8 5.3 0.6 0.0 17.9 3rd
4th 0.4 6.2 6.0 0.5 13.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.8 6.8 1.0 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.2 4.3 2.8 0.1 7.3 6th
7th 1.2 4.1 0.4 5.6 7th
8th 0.2 2.3 1.4 0.0 4.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 2.0 0.1 2.8 9th
10th 0.1 1.1 0.4 1.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.3 6.1 12.1 18.4 21.4 19.3 12.6 5.8 1.2 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 98.7% 1.1    1.0 0.1
14-4 81.2% 4.7    3.1 1.5 0.1
13-5 50.2% 6.3    2.2 3.1 1.0 0.1
12-6 16.3% 3.2    0.3 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.1
11-7 1.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.6% 15.6 6.6 5.9 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 1.2% 30.7% 30.7% 11.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.8
14-4 5.8% 28.0% 28.0% 12.5 0.0 0.9 0.7 0.1 4.2
13-5 12.6% 24.1% 24.1% 12.8 0.0 0.9 1.8 0.4 0.0 9.6
12-6 19.3% 21.8% 21.8% 13.1 0.7 2.5 1.0 0.0 15.1
11-7 21.4% 15.0% 15.0% 13.3 0.3 1.6 1.2 0.1 18.1
10-8 18.4% 10.0% 10.0% 13.6 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.1 16.5
9-9 12.1% 6.5% 6.5% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 11.3
8-10 6.1% 4.6% 4.6% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.8
7-11 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3
6-12 0.6% 3.2% 3.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.6
5-13 0.2% 5.9% 5.9% 15.0 0.0 0.2
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 15.4% 15.4% 0.0% 13.1 84.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 11.9 23.9 62.0 14.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%