Northeastern
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -8.0 296
Results Rating -9.4 314
Consistency 0.15 181
Pace 72.6 71
Improvement -4.4 334

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 206 C C- C D C+
Defense D- 340 F+ C C- D+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 75 C+ 59% 144 +2.9 76
2 Pt. Jumpers 38% 174 C- 37% 210 -0.8 226
Three Pointers 38% 236 C- 33% 226 -1.9 248
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.5 110 C -0.3 179
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 162
Second Chance D+ 26.6% 286 B- 1.09 95 C- 0.29 225
Opponents' Steals C- 9.9% 238
Other Turnovers C 7.2% 182
Turnovers C 17.1% 210
Freethrows D 0.27 297 D 69% 295 D 0.18 314
Total Offense C- -1.5 206

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C+ 50% 150 C 11.3% 200
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 33% 67 B- 3.3% 62
Three Pointers B 90% 46 C- 1.0% 232
Total C+ 59% 107 C- 5.9% 215


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 23 D- 65% 334 +6.8 356
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 231 F 48% 362 +1.2 290
Three Pointers 36% 320 D+ 36% 278 -1.5 125
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.7 295 F+ +5.7 355
1st FG Attempt F+ 1.15 354
Second Chance C 30.4% 184 C 1.02 153 C 0.31 178
Turnovers from Steals C 9.2% 200
Other Turnovers C- 7.0% 223
Turnovers C- 16.2% 213
Freethrows D+ 0.34 293 C- 73% 230 D+ 0.25 291
Total Defense D- -6.5 340

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 203 D 7.6% 313
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 22% 131 D+ 2.9% 298
Three Pointers C 83% 163 B+ 1.9% 34
Total C+ 53% 138 D+ 4.7% 249

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.8 117 16.7 72
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 108 0.18 207
Consistency 0.13 252 0.15 333
Improvement +1.3 128 -5.7 359

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 305 297 285
Results Rating Rank 323 318 290
Conference Record 2 - 16 2 - 16 2 - 16
Conference Finish 13 13 13
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 103 - 14
Quad 44 - 107 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 256 Boston University L 75 - 76 OT 51% +2  65% 0 - 1 D -9 F -13 F D+ F B +4 B C- B+
 Fri, Nov 7 252 @Colgate W 68 - 65 29% -1  33% 1 - 1 C +1 D- -7 D- F A A- +8 B- A- C
 Tue, Nov 11 153 @Harvard W 77 - 60 15% +9  73% 2 - 1 A +20 B+ +9 C+ C+ A A+ +12 A C+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 234 Vermont L 74 - 85 47% -0  60% 2 - 2 F -18 D -5 D A F F -13 F B B+
 Thu, Nov 20 239 @Princeton L 57 - 70 26% -10  0% 2 - 3 D- -14 F -17 F D F B- +2 A F A
 Sat, Nov 22 120 Duquesne W 93 - 86 15% +3  90% 3 - 3 B +10 C+ +3 A+ D- F B+ +6 D- A+ A
 Fri, Nov 28 70 @Wake Forest L 73 - 86 4% -7  2% 3 - 4 C -1 C- -1 A+ F F C+ +1 F D A+
 Wed, Dec 3 328 @Holy Cross L 59 - 76 50% -13  0% 3 - 5 F -25 F -18 F D F F+ -8 F B D+
 Sun, Dec 7 306 Central Connecticut St. W 73 - 56 64% +14  95% 4 - 5 B- +5 D- -8 C C- D A+ +13 A+ A F+
 Sat, Dec 20 76 @Syracuse L 83 - 91 5% -7  11% 4 - 6 C+ +3 A +12 A B+ C F+ -10 F C- C+
 Mon, Dec 22 135 @Rhode Island L 77 - 85 12% -6  5% 4 - 7 C- -3 A +13 A+ D- C+ F -17 F F D
 Mon, Dec 29 242 @Elon L 91 - 103 27% -5  0% 4 - 8 0 - 1 D- -14 A- +10 A+ D D F -23 F F B+
 Wed, Dec 31 281 @N.C. A&T W 85 - 74 34% +4  90% 5 - 8 1 - 1 B- +7 A +12 B+ C+ B D+ -4 C D D
 Sat, Jan 3 183 @Campbell L 82 - 97 19% -8  3% 5 - 9 1 - 2 D- -14 C+ +3 B- D+ B F -17 F A- F
 Thu, Jan 8 106 UNC Wilmington L 78 - 87 19% -1  36% 5 - 10 1 - 3 D+ -8 C +0 B D+ A D- -8 C+ D+ B
 Sat, Jan 10 167 Towson L 78 - 87 34% -6  30% 5 - 11 1 - 4 D- -13 B- +5 B+ D A- F -18 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 15 242 Elon W 85 - 78 48% +4  75% 6 - 11 2 - 4 C -1 D+ -3 D+ A+ B- C+ +2 F+ B+ A+
 Mon, Jan 19 179 @Monmouth L 68 - 81 18% -1  49% 6 - 12 2 - 5 D -11 D- -7 C F F D+ -4 D+ D- F
 Thu, Jan 22 226 Stony Brook L 80 - 95 45% -9  0% 6 - 13 2 - 6 F -22 C +1 D- A+ A F -22 F D+ B+
 Sat, Jan 24 214 @Drexel L 78 - 83 22% -6  7% 6 - 14 2 - 7 D+ -5 B +6 B- B A F -12 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 143 College of Charleston L 84 - 89 28% +2  66% 6 - 15 2 - 8 D+ -7 A- +10 A C- A+ F -17 F+ C- F
 Thu, Feb 5 103 @Hofstra L 63 - 80 8% -10  0% 6 - 16 2 - 9 D -10 D -5 A F F+ D -5 D+ D D+
 Sat, Feb 7 226 @Stony Brook L 55 - 69 24% -10  18% 6 - 17 2 - 10 F+ -15 F -17 F B D B- +2 D- B+ B-
 Thu, Feb 12 139 William & Mary L 67 - 94 28% -11  0% 6 - 18 2 - 11 F -29 F -10 F B+ B- F -19 F C F
 Thu, Feb 19 214 Drexel L 61 - 70 42% -3  12% 6 - 19 2 - 12 F+ -15 F -11 F+ D+ C- D+ -4 F A+ B+
 Sat, Feb 21 103 Hofstra L 68 - 82 19% -10  3% 6 - 20 2 - 13 D- -13 C -0 D B+ A+ F -14 F B+ F
 Thu, Feb 26 139 @William & Mary L 77 - 84 13% -3  30% 6 - 21 2 - 14 C- -3 D- -7 C+ C+ F B +5 B+ A+ F
 Sat, Feb 28 263 @Hampton L 65 - 76 31% -2  35% 6 - 22 2 - 15 D- -14 D- -6 F F A+ F+ -8 F+ A- F
 Tue, Mar 3 179 Monmouth L 83 - 89 36% -5  27% 6 - 23 2 - 16 D -10 A- +11 A A+ C+ F -21 F D+ F
 Fri, Mar 6 281 N.C. A&T L 81 - 82 45%
Totals 6 - 24 2 - 16 -8 C- -2 A- C C+ D- -6 C- D D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C+ C- C- C 43% 38% 38% C+ C D+ B- C- C D D D D- D- F D+ F+ 45% 19% 36% D F+ C C C C- D+ C- D+
1.06 59% 37% 33% 0 +1 1.02 27% 1.1 .29 17% .27 69% .18 1.18 65% 48% 36% +6 +1 1.15 30% 1.0 .31 16% .34 73% .20
Nov
3		 Boston University F D D F F 54% 15% 31% A- F C D- D+ F A+ D A+ B F+ F A+ B+ 38% 14% 48% D+ B F+ B C- B+ F+ B- D
1.01 52% 38% 24% -8 +2 0.89 30% 0.9 .27 17% .42 69% .29 1.02 68% 57% 25% 0 +1 1.04 31% 0.9 .29 21% .34 70% .24
Nov
7		 Colgate D- B F F F+ 51% 12% 37% A- D- D+ F F A A+ C A A- C+ F A+ B 41% 24% 35% D+ B- D+ A+ A- C C- F D
1.01 65% 17% 21% -6 +2 0.94 28% 0.4 .10 10% .42 72% .30 0.97 55% 58% 24% -2 0 0.98 29% 0.6 .18 16% .28 81% .23
Nov
11		 Harvard B+ C F A+ B- 41% 20% 39% C- C+ C B- C+ A A+ F B+ A+ C- A+ B A 36% 19% 45% C+ A C- B+ C+ A+ F D+ F
1.16 57% 10% 45% +1 0 1.04 30% 1.1 .33 12% .39 61% .24 0.90 60% 13% 32% -6 0 0.90 28% 0.8 .22 27% .49 83% .41
Nov
15		 Vermont D D+ F A+ D- 46% 27% 27% C+ D B- A+ A F A- B- A- F C+ B F F 55% 6% 39% F F C+ A- B B+ A- F B
1.06 55% 15% 46% -3 0 0.96 30% 1.4 .42 21% .38 76% .29 1.22 57% 33% 60% +14 +3 1.37 22% 0.8 .19 19% .21 83% .18
Nov
20		 Princeton F D F F F 52% 14% 34% B+ F B F D F B- F C- B- A+ A D+ A 35% 27% 38% B+ A F F F A F C- F
0.85 54% 29% 12% -15 +2 0.76 33% 0.8 .26 19% .33 61% .20 1.04 38% 30% 36% -8 -1 0.84 34% 1.5 .50 22% .71 76% .54
Nov
22		 Duquesne C+ A+ A+ F A+ 53% 16% 31% A A+ C F D- F A+ A A+ B+ C F F D 71% 7% 22% F D- A+ C+ A+ A D+ B C-
1.10 81% 50% 25% +10 +2 1.25 29% 0.7 .19 25% .47 80% .38 1.02 59% 50% 42% +4 +4 1.18 16% 1.0 .16 22% .38 68% .26
Nov
28		 Wake Forest C- C- D A+ A+ 48% 13% 39% B+ A+ F+ F F F C C C C+ F F C- F 45% 14% 41% D- F F A- D A+ D B- D+
1.00 55% 33% 56% +10 +2 1.26 21% 0.7 .14 30% .29 73% .21 1.17 82% 57% 35% +14 +1 1.33 43% 1.0 .43 23% .36 75% .27
Dec
3		 Holy Cross F D F F F 43% 8% 49% A- F C- F+ D F F F F F+ D- F D+ F 38% 34% 28% C+ F C- A+ B D+ B F C+
0.89 55% 0% 28% -9 +2 0.88 27% 1.0 .27 20% .15 38% .06 1.14 63% 65% 36% +12 -2 1.22 22% 0.7 .15 15% .23 85% .19
Dec
7		 Central Connecticut St. D- C C+ C- C- 44% 10% 46% B- C F A+ C- D D+ B+ C A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 44% 25% 31% F A+ B+ A+ A F+ D+ A+ B
1.07 57% 40% 33% -1 +2 1.04 19% 1.5 .29 15% .24 86% .21 0.82 50% 14% 24% -14 0 0.73 21% 0.7 .15 13% .29 59% .17
Dec
20		 Syracuse A D A+ C A- 51% 11% 38% A A A+ F B+ C A- F B- F+ A F F F 53% 29% 18% B- F F A+ C- C+ F D- F
1.19 50% 83% 33% 0 +2 1.07 46% 0.9 .43 19% .35 65% .23 1.31 50% 91% 43% +13 0 1.29 53% 0.7 .35 16% .82 71% .58
Dec
22		 Rhode Island A C F A+ A+ 49% 2% 49% A+ A+ C+ F D- C+ A+ A- A+ F C- F D+ F 36% 24% 40% A- F F D F D B+ B A-
1.19 55% 0% 50% +9 +3 1.27 32% 0.7 .21 20% .48 76% .37 1.31 61% 83% 35% +13 -1 1.26 47% 1.0 .47 17% .30 69% .20
Dec
29		 Elon A- C F A+ A+ 44% 19% 37% B- A+ D- C D D C F D+ F F F F F 49% 6% 45% D- F F F F B+ F D F
1.26 57% 30% 68% +17 +1 1.37 28% 1.1 .31 18% .29 65% .19 1.43 76% 67% 48% +20 +3 1.47 46% 1.3 .58 19% .43 76% .33
Dec
31		 N.C. A&T A C A+ A+ B+ 48% 24% 28% C+ B+ C B- C+ B A+ F+ A D+ D F A+ C 33% 28% 40% C C F B- D D F B- F
1.30 58% 58% 43% +9 0 1.20 28% 1.1 .31 11% .46 63% .29 1.13 64% 50% 24% -1 -1 0.98 38% 1.0 .38 17% .59 72% .42
Jan
3		 Campbell C+ C+ B+ A- B 39% 25% 36% C- B- F A+ D+ B F A+ D- F F F B- F 55% 14% 31% D+ F C+ A+ A- F F D- F
1.14 64% 43% 40% +7 -1 1.14 14% 2.3 .32 15% .20 92% .18 1.34 79% 57% 31% +13 +2 1.31 33% 0.8 .26 12% .49 77% .38
Jan
8		 UNC Wilmington C B F C- B- 51% 15% 35% A+ B D B- D+ A A+ F B- D- A A+ F+ B+ 50% 13% 38% F C+ D+ C D+ B F F F
1.07 64% 25% 32% 0 +2 1.05 22% 1.1 .24 10% .36 58% .21 1.20 46% 17% 39% -6 +2 0.94 36% 1.1 .39 18% .57 88% .50
Jan
10		 Towson B- B B C B+ 39% 17% 44% B- B+ F+ C+ D A- A A+ A+ F F F F F 52% 30% 18% F+ F F F F A+ D- D F+
1.13 62% 44% 33% +2 +1 1.07 20% 1.0 .20 12% .35 86% .30 1.27 70% 54% 50% +15 0 1.32 48% 1.3 .63 23% .34 72% .25
Jan
15		 Elon D+ C B+ D D 39% 19% 42% C+ D+ D A+ A+ B- F C F C+ C- A+ F F 44% 8% 48% C- F+ A- C B+ A+ C A+ B
1.13 57% 45% 32% -1 0 1.02 29% 1.9 .56 15% .17 73% .12 1.03 59% 0% 46% +6 +2 1.18 26% 1.0 .26 24% .31 61% .19
Jan
19		 Monmouth D- A+ A+ F C 47% 15% 38% B C B- F F F D+ C- D+ D+ B- F+ D D+ 36% 19% 46% D- D+ D+ D- D- F A+ A+ A+
0.95 72% 50% 20% 0 +1 1.06 35% 0.2 .05 25% .26 71% .19 1.13 52% 45% 37% +1 0 1.05 34% 1.1 .39 13% .19 58% .11
Jan
22		 Stony Brook C A+ F F D- 39% 18% 44% C+ D- D- A+ A+ A C F F F D- C F F 33% 10% 57% D+ F F B D+ B+ F D+ F
1.12 73% 20% 24% -4 0 0.95 26% 1.8 .46 11% .30 42% .13 1.33 63% 40% 57% +21 +1 1.47 37% 0.8 .30 21% .36 75% .27
Jan
24		 Drexel B F A+ A- B- 38% 24% 38% C B- D A+ B A C- F D F F F C F 35% 31% 35% A F B- A+ A+ F F C F
1.12 43% 54% 38% 0 0 1.02 26% 1.4 .38 12% .29 67% .20 1.20 71% 60% 35% +12 -2 1.22 26% 0.4 .12 10% .45 68% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 College of Charleston A- A C A+ A+ 40% 23% 37% B- A C+ D- C- A+ F F F F D- F A+ D 58% 13% 28% F F+ B- D- C- F D- D+ F+
1.22 71% 36% 41% +8 0 1.18 33% 0.8 .28 7% .08 40% .03 1.29 68% 57% 20% +2 +2 1.11 27% 1.2 .33 7% .41 77% .31
Feb
5		 Hofstra D C A+ B A 27% 27% 46% D+ A F C- F F+ D F D- D F D- B D 32% 26% 42% C+ D+ F+ C+ D D+ B- D- C+
0.95 54% 54% 36% +5 -2 1.08 10% 1.0 .10 18% .26 64% .17 1.21 71% 43% 32% +4 -1 1.08 40% 1.0 .40 15% .27 80% .21
Feb
7		 Stony Brook F F F F F 30% 26% 44% D- F D A+ B D C+ F C- B- F D+ A D- 38% 15% 47% D+ D- A+ F B+ B- F C- F
0.82 47% 23% 18% -18 -1 0.64 26% 1.4 .36 18% .31 65% .20 1.03 78% 43% 27% +4 +1 1.11 14% 1.3 .17 19% .35 74% .26
Feb
12		 William & Mary F B D- F F 34% 17% 49% C- F D A+ B+ B- F A- F F D- A+ F F 53% 13% 34% D+ F F A+ C F B A+ A
0.96 67% 33% 19% -9 0 0.85 24% 1.7 .41 17% .16 78% .12 1.35 68% 14% 61% +16 +2 1.38 33% 0.9 .30 11% .31 63% .19
Feb
19		 Drexel F F A F+ F+ 36% 28% 36% D+ F+ F A+ D+ C- D- B- D D+ F A+ D- F 48% 10% 43% F F A+ A+ A+ B+ F B+ F
0.91 33% 50% 28% -9 -1 0.82 19% 1.4 .27 16% .25 79% .20 1.04 85% 0% 39% +12 +2 1.31 4% 0.0 .00 22% .46 63% .29
Feb
21		 Hofstra C C C- F D 38% 26% 36% C D C A+ B+ A+ F D- F F C F F F 29% 22% 49% C F A+ F B+ F F A D
1.06 55% 36% 21% -9 -1 0.83 30% 1.3 .40 9% .21 67% .14 1.28 57% 55% 42% +9 -1 1.18 21% 1.3 .27 9% .38 68% .26
Feb
26		 William & Mary D- B D- B- B- 33% 16% 51% C- C+ F A+ C+ F F D F B D A+ A+ A 61% 7% 31% F B+ A+ A- A+ F F F+ F
0.96 67% 33% 36% +3 0 1.09 19% 1.8 .34 28% .16 67% .10 1.05 67% 25% 12% -6 +3 0.96 6% 1.0 .06 10% .54 82% .45
Feb
28		 Hampton D- D+ B+ F F 42% 26% 32% D+ F D+ F F A+ D C- D F+ D- F A+ D- 49% 24% 27% F+ F+ A+ F A- F D+ D- D
0.99 59% 43% 18% -6 -1 0.89 27% 0.6 .17 9% .35 67% .23 1.15 64% 50% 21% +1 0 1.04 10% 2.0 .20 6% .37 78% .29
Mar
3		 Monmouth A- A F A+ A 45% 24% 31% C- A C- A+ A+ C+ F C F+ F F F F F 38% 31% 31% B- F C D D+ F A C A
1.24 70% 25% 50% +10 0 1.22 30% 1.8 .52 18% .20 73% .15 1.33 67% 59% 41% +13 -1 1.25 31% 1.1 .34 9% .20 75% .15



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 100.0 100.0 13th
Total 100.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16 100.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.1 99.9
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.8%
Lose Out 55.1%