Northeastern
Colonial Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.2#206
Expected Predictive Rating-1.3#190
Pace69.5#147
Improvement-4.2#332

Offense
Total Offense-1.8#224
First Shot-2.7#253
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#126
Layup/Dunks+5.5#25
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#260
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#321
Freethrows-2.2#307
Improvement-0.9#245

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#185
First Shot+0.2#172
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#246
Layups/Dunks-1.7#244
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#133
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#155
Freethrows+0.3#164
Improvement-3.3#332
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.8% 5.0% 3.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.7 15.2
.500 or above 83.8% 95.0% 78.4%
.500 or above in Conference 56.1% 78.1% 45.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round3.7% 5.0% 3.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hofstra (Away) - 32.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 34 - 84 - 10
Quad 414 - 518 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 294   @ Boston University W 80-72 60%     1 - 0 +3.2 +12.4 -8.7
  Nov 10, 2024 129   Princeton L 76-79 44%     1 - 1 -3.6 +1.2 -4.8
  Nov 13, 2024 241   Harvard W 78-56 68%     2 - 1 +14.9 +2.3 +12.4
  Nov 16, 2024 209   Central Connecticut St. W 80-62 51%     3 - 1 +15.5 +10.2 +5.5
  Nov 22, 2024 243   Florida International W 60-58 60%     4 - 1 -2.9 -7.5 +4.8
  Nov 23, 2024 164   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 59-55 32%     5 - 1 +6.6 -6.3 +13.4
  Nov 24, 2024 258   Cal St. Bakersfield L 60-68 63%     5 - 2 -13.6 -9.6 -4.9
  Nov 30, 2024 240   @ Vermont L 64-68 49%     5 - 3 -6.1 -4.0 -2.2
  Dec 03, 2024 193   La Salle W 82-68 57%     6 - 3 +10.0 -0.5 +9.0
  Dec 08, 2024 239   Colgate W 78-75 68%     7 - 3 -4.1 -0.5 -3.6
  Dec 15, 2024 275   @ Old Dominion W 75-71 56%     8 - 3 +0.2 -0.5 +0.6
  Dec 18, 2024 152   @ Massachusetts L 72-77 30%     8 - 4 -1.8 -5.2 +3.9
  Dec 29, 2024 56   @ Northwestern L 60-85 9%     8 - 5 -12.7 +0.2 -15.5
  Jan 02, 2025 232   Delaware W 80-77 66%     9 - 5 1 - 0 -3.6 +0.6 -4.2
  Jan 04, 2025 174   Hofstra L 37-55 53%     9 - 6 1 - 1 -21.0 -30.3 +7.8
  Jan 09, 2025 160   @ Towson L 73-80 31%     9 - 7 1 - 2 -4.1 +12.7 -17.7
  Jan 11, 2025 318   @ Stony Brook W 70-66 67%     10 - 7 2 - 2 -2.7 -6.2 +3.6
  Jan 16, 2025 117   @ UNC Wilmington L 72-80 24%     10 - 8 2 - 3 -2.7 +4.6 -7.8
  Jan 18, 2025 131   @ College of Charleston L 85-87 27%     10 - 9 2 - 4 +2.2 +11.0 -8.7
  Jan 23, 2025 195   Drexel W 70-61 57%     11 - 9 3 - 4 +4.9 +6.4 -0.2
  Jan 27, 2025 160   Towson L 65-75 49%     11 - 10 3 - 5 -12.1 -3.3 -9.4
  Jan 30, 2025 287   @ Hampton W 78-69 58%     12 - 10 4 - 5 +4.6 +3.7 +0.9
  Feb 01, 2025 175   @ Elon L 60-71 35%     12 - 11 4 - 6 -9.2 -5.4 -5.2
  Feb 06, 2025 174   @ Hofstra L 63-67 33%    
  Feb 08, 2025 287   Hampton W 73-66 76%    
  Feb 13, 2025 178   Campbell W 69-68 56%    
  Feb 15, 2025 318   Stony Brook W 76-67 82%    
  Feb 20, 2025 131   College of Charleston L 76-77 46%    
  Feb 22, 2025 253   @ Monmouth W 73-72 51%    
  Feb 27, 2025 333   N.C. A&T W 83-72 86%    
  Mar 01, 2025 208   @ William & Mary L 78-80 39%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 0.7 1.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.0 0.4 4.1 4th
5th 0.2 4.3 3.0 0.0 7.5 5th
6th 0.1 2.6 8.6 1.1 12.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 9.5 5.3 0.0 16.1 7th
8th 0.4 6.6 10.8 1.0 18.8 8th
9th 0.2 3.4 10.8 3.5 0.0 17.9 9th
10th 0.1 1.4 7.1 4.9 0.3 13.7 10th
11th 0.2 2.4 2.7 0.5 5.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 0.9 0.2 1.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 1.0 4.9 13.9 24.1 26.9 19.9 7.9 1.3 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 1.3% 15.0% 15.0% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.1
11-7 7.9% 7.8% 7.8% 14.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 7.3
10-8 19.9% 5.1% 5.1% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.1 18.9
9-9 26.9% 3.9% 3.9% 15.0 0.2 0.7 0.2 25.9
8-10 24.1% 2.5% 2.5% 15.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 23.5
7-11 13.9% 1.7% 1.7% 15.8 0.0 0.2 13.6
6-12 4.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.9
5-13 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.0
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.0 0.9 96.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 13.4 10.0 45.0 45.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%