Northeastern
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.3 #259
Expected Predictive Rating -6.1 #262
Pace 73.2 #72
Improvement -3.0 #311

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #175 C+ D+ D+ C- B
Defense #315 F C- B- D- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #31 1.20 #131 +4.8 #40
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #257 0.69 #278 -2.0 #281
Three Pointers 38% #245 1.02 #185 -1.5 #236
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #137 +1.3 #136
Freethrows 17.1 #201 70% #257 12.0 #210
Second Chance 27.8% #259 1.02 #205 0.28 #253
Turnovers 17.6% #254
Total Offense -0.4 #175

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #32 1.22 #257 -5.0 #334
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #203 0.94 #360 -1.5 #295
Three Pointers 36% #318 1.12 #314 +0.9 #146
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #333 -5.6 #334
Freethrows 19.7 #300 77% #333 15.1 #323
Second Chance 34.6% #319 0.99 #111 0.34 #245
Turnovers 18.1% #81
Total Defense -4.9 #315

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.0% #57 1.2% #280
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.6% #166 9.6% #334
Possession Length 16.9 #126 16.6 #59
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #82 0.17 #186
Improvement +4.6 #8 -7.6 #365

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.0% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 0.5% 1.1% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 4.3% 10.3% 1.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 25.8% 13.2% 31.2%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 0.6%
First Round0.6% 0.8% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drexel (Away) - 29.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 35 - 105 - 13
Quad 45 - 710 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 285 Boston University L 75 - 76 OT 68% +2  0 - 1 -11 -11 F D F -0 B- C A-
 Fri, Nov 7 199 @Colgate W 68 - 65 29% -1  1 - 1 +3 -3 D- F A+ +7 A- B+ C+
 Tue, Nov 11 168 @Harvard W 77 - 60 24% +9  2 - 1 +19 +9 C C A+ +11 A+ B A+
 Sat, Nov 15 204 Vermont L 74 - 85 52% -0  2 - 2 -17 -3 F A+ F -14 F B A-
 Thu, Nov 20 214 @Princeton L 57 - 70 32% -10  2 - 3 -13 -13 F D F -1 A+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 118 Duquesne W 93 - 86 22% +3  3 - 3 +10 +5 A+ F F +3 D- A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 63 @Wake Forest L 73 - 86 7% -7  3 - 4 -1 +3 A+ F F -4 F D+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 320 @Holy Cross L 59 - 76 56% -13  3 - 5 -24 -14 F D+ F -11 F B D-
 Sun, Dec 7 277 Central Connecticut St. W 73 - 56 66% +14  4 - 5 +7 -5 C- D+ D- +12 A+ A+ D
 Sat, Dec 20 67 @Syracuse L 83 - 91 7% -7  4 - 6 +3 +16 A+ B+ C -13 F C C
 Mon, Dec 22 122 @Rhode Island L 77 - 85 16% -6  4 - 7 -2 +15 A+ F C+ -18 F F F
 Mon, Dec 29 184 @Elon L 91 - 103 26% -5  4 - 8 0 - 1 -11 +12 A+ D- F -23 F F A
 Wed, Dec 31 304 @N.C. A&T W 85 - 74 50% +4  5 - 8 1 - 1 +6 +15 A- B- B- -8 D+ D+ D+
 Sat, Jan 3 190 @Campbell L 82 - 97 27% -8  5 - 9 1 - 2 -14 +6 B D B -19 F A+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 125 UNC Wilmington L 78 - 87 33% -1  5 - 10 1 - 3 -10 +2 B D+ A+ -12 C C- B+
 Sat, Jan 10 157 Towson L 78 - 87 41% -6  5 - 11 1 - 4 -12 +8 A- F A+ -20 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 15 184 Elon W 85 - 78 48% +4  6 - 11 2 - 4 +2 -0 D+ A+ C +2 D+ A- A+
 Mon, Jan 19 202 @Monmouth L 68 - 81 29% -1  6 - 12 2 - 5 -13 -4 C F F -8 F D- F
 Thu, Jan 22 242 Stony Brook L 80 - 95 59% -9  6 - 13 2 - 6 -22 +2 F A+ A+ -24 F F A
 Sat, Jan 24 203 @Drexel L 68 - 74 30%
 Sat, Jan 31 164 College of Charleston L 79 - 81 43%
 Thu, Feb 5 126 @Hofstra L 72 - 82 16%
 Sat, Feb 7 242 @Stony Brook L 73 - 77 36%
 Thu, Feb 12 138 William & Mary L 83 - 87 37%
 Thu, Feb 19 203 Drexel W 72 - 71 52%
 Sat, Feb 21 126 Hofstra L 75 - 79 34%
 Thu, Feb 26 138 @William & Mary L 80 - 90 19%
 Sat, Feb 28 230 @Hampton L 72 - 76 35%
 Tue, Mar 3 202 Monmouth W 75 - 74 51%
Totals 10 - 19 6 - 12 -5 +0 C+ D+ D+ -5 F C- B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.9 5th
6th 0.2 1.3 0.1 1.6 6th
7th 1.5 1.0 0.0 2.5 7th
8th 0.6 2.9 0.3 3.8 8th
9th 0.3 3.4 2.5 0.0 6.2 9th
10th 0.1 3.2 6.6 0.8 10.6 10th
11th 0.4 3.9 9.8 3.7 0.0 17.8 11th
12th 0.5 4.2 12.5 16.2 8.2 0.7 42.3 12th
13th 1.8 4.3 5.0 2.3 0.3 0.0 13.6 13th
Total 2.3 8.5 17.8 22.5 21.7 14.9 7.9 3.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.2% 9.1% 9.1% 14.0 0.0 0.2
10-8 0.8% 6.5% 6.5% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.8
9-9 3.3% 3.1% 3.1% 15.5 0.1 0.0 3.2
8-10 7.9% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 7.8
7-11 14.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.2 14.8
6-12 21.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.2 21.5
5-13 22.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 22.4
4-14 17.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.8
3-15 8.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.5
2-16 2.3% 2.3
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 15.8 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.1%