Central Connecticut St.
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -8.6 306
Results Rating -5.2 247
Consistency 0.18 307
Pace 64.0 300
Improvement -2.9 285

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 251 C- D C D+ F
Defense D 321 C- C F+ C+ D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 340 C+ 60% 118 -3.7 311
2 Pt. Jumpers 51% 43 C+ 39% 136 +4.8 15
Three Pointers 37% 277 C 34% 176 -2.2 258
Shot Selection/Accuracy F -2.0 354 C+ +1.0 126
1st FG Attempt C- 1.00 208
Second Chance D+ 26.3% 295 D+ 0.97 270 D 0.26 304
Opponents' Steals D+ 10.3% 270
Other Turnovers B- 6.7% 107
Turnovers C 17.0% 203
Freethrows D- 0.25 334 B+ 78% 18 D+ 0.20 266
Total Offense D+ -3.1 251

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C+ 51% 135 B- 9.0% 76
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 20% 253 B- 3.4% 67
Three Pointers D+ 80% 269 F 2.2% 355
Total D+ 50% 300 B- 4.7% 74


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 60 C+ 56% 126 +1.9 248
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 356 D+ 40% 267 -2.2 25
Three Pointers 43% 116 C- 35% 241 +1.7 268
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- +1.2 352 C +0.2 190
1st FG Attempt C- 1.05 226
Second Chance C- 31.6% 244 C 1.02 159 C 0.32 221
Turnovers from Steals D 7.6% 314
Other Turnovers F 5.0% 362
Turnovers F+ 12.7% 357
Freethrows B 0.27 71 F 80% 364 C+ 0.21 141
Total Defense D -5.5 321

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 48% 165 C 11.3% 155
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 27% 214 C+ 6.0% 102
Three Pointers D+ 87% 287 C+ 1.1% 118
Total C- 58% 246 C+ 6.2% 130

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.6 308 17.3 176
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 350 0.16 141
Consistency 0.16 357 0.16 352
Improvement -0.5 209 -2.5 305

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 313 306 289
Results Rating Rank 272 257 205
Conference Record 12 - 4 12 - 4 12 - 4
Conference Finish 2 2 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Four

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10% 19% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four8% 16% 0%
First Round5% 9% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 00 - 1
Quad 32 - 32 - 4
Quad 415 - 817 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 215 @Quinnipiac L 49 - 71 21% -12  2% 0 - 1 F -22 F -23 F D A- C+ +1 D+ A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 137 @Boston College W 60 - 59 12% -4  8% 1 - 1 B- +5 D -6 B- F+ D- A +11 A A C
 Sun, Nov 16 193 @Massachusetts L 77 - 84 18% -12  0% 1 - 2 D+ -6 D- -7 D+ D+ C C+ +1 B F B+
 Fri, Nov 21 109 @Rutgers W 67 - 54 9% +5  80% 2 - 2 A +20 C+ +3 C- F A+ A+ +18 A A+ B-
 Mon, Nov 24 287 Sacred Heart W 108 - 106 OT 56% +2  66% 3 - 2 D -8 A- +10 A- A+ C F -18 F D- F+
 Wed, Dec 3 53 @Seton Hall L 61 - 77 3% -9  2% 3 - 3 C- -2 B- +4 A+ F C D- -8 F A+ D-
 Sun, Dec 7 296 @Northeastern L 56 - 73 36% -14  4% 3 - 4 F -22 F -23 F F B+ C+ +1 C C D
 Sat, Dec 13 357 @Binghamton W 84 - 67 67% +8  87% 4 - 4 C+ +4 B+ +8 A+ D- F C- -3 D+ D+ F+
 Thu, Dec 18 264 Fairfield L 70 - 84 51% -14  16% 4 - 5 F -23 D- -7 F B A- F -17 F D+ D
 Fri, Jan 2 218 @LIU Brooklyn L 78 - 84 21% -1  33% 4 - 6 0 - 1 D+ -6 A+ +19 A+ C A F -27 F F F
 Sun, Jan 4 325 New Haven W 72 - 61 69% +10  99% 5 - 6 1 - 1 C- -3 B +7 A C+ C D- -8 C+ F C+
 Thu, Jan 8 335 Stonehill W 76 - 69 72% +6  98% 6 - 6 2 - 1 D+ -8 C+ +3 B+ A F F -11 F B+ C-
 Sat, Jan 10 298 @Le Moyne W 69 - 59 37% +6  89% 7 - 6 3 - 1 B- +5 F+ -8 F D D- A+ +13 A+ C- D+
 Sat, Jan 17 355 @St. Francis (PA) W 98 - 90 63% +7  98% 8 - 6 4 - 1 C- -4 A+ +18 A+ F A+ F -22 F+ F F
 Mon, Jan 19 291 @Mercyhurst L 61 - 79 35% -14  0% 8 - 7 4 - 2 F -22 D- -7 F B- B- F -18 F C- D
 Fri, Jan 23 336 Fairleigh Dickinson L 66 - 76 73% -4  42% 8 - 8 4 - 3 F -25 D -4 D- B- F+ F -22 F B+ F
 Mon, Jan 26 335 @Stonehill L 59 - 61 51% +3  79% 8 - 9 4 - 4 D -11 F -11 C+ F F C +0 D B+ C-
 Thu, Jan 29 317 @Wagner W 62 - 55 43% +2  63% 9 - 9 5 - 4 C +0 D- -6 D+ F+ D+ A- +8 A+ B- F
 Sat, Jan 31 218 LIU Brooklyn L 59 - 80 41% -2  40% 9 - 10 5 - 5 F -27 F -14 F F B- F -14 D- D F
 Thu, Feb 5 351 Chicago St. W 78 - 67 78% +3  66% 10 - 10 6 - 5 D+ -6 B- +4 B+ A F F+ -9 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 317 Wagner W 84 - 67 66% +9  91% 11 - 10 7 - 5 C+ +4 B+ +8 A- A+ D+ C- -2 A- C- F
 Thu, Feb 12 325 @New Haven W 81 - 76 46% +6  87% 12 - 10 8 - 5 C- -3 B +6 A+ F F F+ -9 C+ F D
 Sat, Feb 14 336 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 63 - 57 52% +5  93% 13 - 10 9 - 5 C- -3 C- -2 F C- B C+ +1 A+ F D
 Thu, Feb 19 298 Le Moyne W 78 - 77 60% +8  99% 14 - 10 10 - 5 D -10 D+ -2 A- F B- D- -8 F A D-
 Sat, Feb 21 351 @Chicago St. L 51 - 70 58% -5  23% 14 - 11 10 - 6 F -30 F -23 F C- F+ F+ -9 C F F
 Thu, Feb 26 291 Mercyhurst W 80 - 78 57% +0  51% 15 - 11 11 - 6 D -8 C+ +3 B- B+ A F -11 F C+ F
 Sat, Feb 28 355 St. Francis (PA) W 69 - 64 81% +1  61% 16 - 11 12 - 6 D- -13 F -11 C- F D C- -2 C C C+
 Wed, Mar 4 317 Wagner W 73 - 69 66%
Totals 17 - 11 12 - 6 -9 D+ -3 B C+ F D -6 C B+ D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C+ C+ C C+ 31% 51% 37% F C- D+ D+ D C D- B+ D+ D C+ D+ C- C 43% 14% 43% D- C- C- C C F+ B F C+
1.04 60% 39% 34% +1 -2 1.00 26% 1.0 .26 17% .25 78% .20 1.17 56% 40% 35% 0 +1 1.05 32% 1.0 .32 13% .27 80% .20
Nov
6		 Quinnipiac F F F+ F F 26% 34% 40% F F D C- D A- D- F F+ C+ B D- D+ C- 47% 17% 37% F D+ A- A+ A+ F A+ D+ A+
0.71 36% 28% 19% -18 -3 0.60 28% 1.0 .28 13% .23 64% .15 1.03 50% 40% 36% -2 +1 1.00 26% 0.6 .16 7% .11 71% .08
Nov
11		 Boston College D F+ A- A B+ 31% 33% 37% F+ B- B F F+ D- F F+ F A B+ D A+ A+ 33% 16% 51% D A D A+ A C A+ F B+
0.92 47% 44% 39% +1 -2 1.00 32% 0.4 .14 18% .19 60% .11 0.90 50% 44% 21% -11 0 0.80 34% 0.6 .20 15% .16 89% .14
Nov
16		 Massachusetts D- C+ F A- C- 43% 31% 27% D- D+ F A+ D+ C A D- B+ C+ A B- C- B+ 40% 19% 40% D+ B F D- F B+ F A+ B-
0.99 62% 27% 38% 0 -1 1.00 16% 1.6 .25 17% .48 68% .32 1.08 48% 36% 35% -4 0 0.95 44% 1.3 .56 22% .41 48% .20
Nov
21		 Rutgers C+ C- D A C+ 31% 37% 33% F C- C+ F F A+ C D+ C A+ A- A A- A+ 35% 29% 37% C- A A- A+ A+ B- A+ B A+
1.08 56% 32% 41% +1 -3 0.98 33% 0.5 .18 11% .25 71% .18 0.87 47% 29% 28% -10 -1 0.80 26% 0.8 .21 16% .19 70% .13
Nov
24		 Sacred Heart A- A+ B+ A- A 46% 28% 26% D- A- D A+ A+ C A+ B+ A+ F C- F F F 39% 16% 44% D F C- F D- F+ F F F
1.32 77% 44% 40% +13 0 1.26 28% 1.9 .52 13% .47 76% .35 1.30 58% 50% 44% +9 +1 1.21 27% 1.2 .33 15% .37 96% .36
Dec
3		 Seton Hall B- A- F A+ A+ 41% 18% 41% C+ A+ D F F C F B+ F+ D- A+ C F F 49% 16% 35% D- F B A+ A+ D- B+ F B-
0.96 61% 25% 44% +5 0 1.14 26% 0.3 .06 24% .25 75% .19 1.21 44% 38% 61% +7 +1 1.20 32% 0.5 .18 13% .27 80% .22
Dec
7		 Northeastern F F F F F 44% 25% 31% D F F F F B+ D- F F C+ C+ D+ C C+ 44% 10% 46% F+ C A F C D B- F D+
0.82 50% 14% 24% -14 0 0.73 21% 0.7 .15 13% .29 59% .17 1.07 57% 40% 33% -1 +2 1.04 19% 1.5 .29 15% .24 86% .21
Dec
13		 Binghamton B+ A+ C A+ A+ 42% 19% 38% C- A+ F+ C- D- F F C+ F C- D A+ A C+ 56% 9% 35% F D+ C F D+ F+ F C F
1.29 82% 40% 45% +17 0 1.37 25% 1.0 .25 18% .21 73% .15 1.03 63% 25% 27% -3 +3 1.02 19% 1.0 .19 17% .44 75% .33
Dec
18		 Fairfield D- F D+ C F 30% 22% 48% F F C A+ B A- F+ A+ D+ F D F F F 40% 15% 45% D- F B- F+ D+ D B- F C
1.06 31% 33% 35% -9 -1 0.83 30% 1.3 .40 12% .22 85% .19 1.27 59% 50% 44% +9 +1 1.22 31% 1.1 .34 14% .23 77% .17
Jan
2		 LIU Brooklyn A+ B+ B A+ A+ 37% 30% 33% F A+ C C- C A C- A- C+ F A F F F+ 42% 10% 48% F F F C F F F C+ F+
1.33 65% 43% 53% +13 -1 1.26 35% 1.0 .35 14% .32 75% .24 1.43 45% 60% 48% +7 +2 1.19 54% 0.9 .51 9% .37 65% .24
Jan
4		 New Haven B C- B+ A+ A+ 29% 23% 48% D- A C- A- C+ C F F+ F D- B- B- B+ B- 37% 12% 51% F+ C+ F F F C+ A+ B+ A+
1.23 57% 45% 48% +11 -1 1.23 25% 1.3 .32 15% .14 71% .10 1.04 56% 33% 28% -6 +1 0.92 40% 1.1 .46 19% .06 67% .04
Jan
8		 Stonehill C+ A- B A+ A 28% 40% 33% F B+ D A+ A F A+ A+ A+ F B- F F F 55% 6% 39% F F D- A+ B+ C- B- B+ B-
1.15 67% 41% 43% +8 -3 1.12 24% 1.8 .44 20% .45 83% .38 1.04 50% 67% 40% +1 +3 1.10 32% 0.5 .18 20% .21 64% .13
Jan
10		 Le Moyne F+ C+ A+ F D- 24% 39% 37% F F B- F D D- A+ A- A+ A+ A+ B A+ A+ 51% 6% 43% F A+ C- C- C- D+ B+ F C-
0.97 58% 47% 17% -6 -3 0.84 34% 0.8 .26 17% .44 81% .36 0.83 37% 33% 17% -22 +3 0.64 25% 1.0 .25 18% .28 88% .24
Jan
17		 St. Francis (PA) A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 28% 34% 38% F A+ F B- F A+ A+ A A+ F C- D- F F 18% 30% 52% A+ F+ F D- F F F D F
1.43 85% 44% 56% +22 -3 1.40 16% 1.3 .20 10% .55 79% .44 1.32 60% 41% 41% +7 -3 1.11 41% 1.1 .44 9% .35 73% .26
Jan
19		 Mercyhurst D- D F F F 35% 25% 40% F+ F B C+ B- B- F A D F B- F F F 37% 33% 29% D+ F F A C- D A+ F A+
0.99 53% 25% 21% -13 -1 0.75 38% 1.1 .40 16% .29 80% .23 1.28 53% 59% 60% +16 -2 1.31 33% 0.9 .30 13% .07 100% .07
Jan
23		 Fairleigh Dickinson D F A+ F+ D+ 36% 34% 30% F D- A- D B- F+ F+ A+ C- F F A+ F F 40% 20% 40% C- F A+ D B+ F A- F B-
1.12 50% 60% 31% +3 -2 1.05 36% 0.9 .32 19% .27 85% .23 1.29 70% 20% 50% +11 0 1.24 21% 1.0 .21 9% .20 82% .17
Jan
26		 Stonehill F C- C+ A+ B- 47% 31% 22% D C+ F D+ F F F F F C F F A+ C- 47% 9% 44% F D C- A+ B+ C- F B- F
0.90 54% 38% 45% +2 -1 1.04 17% 1.0 .17 20% .08 50% .04 0.93 71% 50% 15% -5 +2 0.96 29% 0.6 .17 20% .46 67% .30
Jan
29		 Wagner D- B+ F F+ D 43% 13% 43% C+ D+ F B+ F+ D+ D- B- D A- A F A+ A+ 40% 7% 53% F A+ C+ B- B- F F B- F
1.03 65% 17% 30% -2 +1 1.00 18% 1.2 .21 15% .31 75% .24 0.92 41% 67% 17% -18 +2 0.70 31% 1.0 .31 12% .41 68% .28
Jan
31		 LIU Brooklyn F D+ F F+ F 25% 33% 41% F F F+ F F B- D A+ B+ F D+ B+ F D- 51% 19% 30% F+ D- B- F D F F F F
0.89 54% 18% 29% -11 -3 0.75 27% 0.8 .22 17% .29 94% .27 1.21 63% 33% 43% +5 +1 1.15 31% 1.2 .38 14% .44 76% .33
Feb
5		 Chicago St. B- A+ A+ B A- 24% 17% 59% D- B+ B- A A F A- A+ A+ F+ F+ A+ C+ D+ 35% 24% 41% F D+ A+ A+ A+ F C+ F C-
1.25 80% 57% 38% +12 -1 1.24 39% 1.3 .52 24% .40 89% .36 1.07 63% 23% 32% -3 -1 0.94 17% 0.7 .11 5% .24 86% .20
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Wagner B+ A+ F A+ A+ 36% 43% 21% F A- C+ A+ A+ D+ A+ B+ A+ C- A+ D- A A 41% 20% 39% D A- C+ D C- F B- C B-
1.28 87% 28% 56% +13 -3 1.21 32% 1.7 .55 15% .56 77% .43 1.02 39% 45% 27% -10 0 0.82 31% 1.2 .36 14% .25 71% .18
Feb
12		 New Haven B A+ B A+ A+ 30% 35% 35% F A+ F+ F F F A+ D- A+ F+ A- F+ A B 50% 19% 31% F+ C+ D- F F D F F F
1.17 79% 44% 56% +20 -2 1.37 19% 0.6 .12 22% .41 73% .30 1.10 50% 44% 27% -6 +1 0.92 26% 1.6 .42 16% .38 95% .36
Feb
14		 Fairleigh Dickinson C- C+ B+ F D- 18% 49% 33% F F B+ F C- B C+ A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 14% 48% D- A+ F F F D F F F
1.12 63% 45% 27% +1 -5 0.93 34% 0.7 .25 12% .34 94% .32 1.01 44% 17% 10% -26 +1 0.52 44% 1.1 .49 16% .48 83% .40
Feb
19		 Le Moyne D+ A+ A+ D+ A+ 21% 32% 48% F A- F F F B- F A+ F D- A- F+ F F 42% 21% 37% C+ F B+ A+ A D- B D- C+
1.10 77% 55% 33% +9 -3 1.14 17% 0.8 .14 13% .02 100% .02 1.09 50% 45% 53% +8 0 1.19 19% 0.7 .13 17% .29 76% .22
Feb
21		 Chicago St. F F C F F 39% 17% 43% D+ F C D+ C- F+ D+ B C- F+ C- A- A B 38% 19% 43% F C C- F F F B F C+
0.82 33% 38% 20% -19 0 0.65 35% 1.1 .38 23% .31 80% .25 1.13 55% 30% 26% -8 0 0.87 30% 1.5 .43 8% .21 83% .18
Feb
26		 Mercyhurst C+ B+ B A A- 43% 36% 21% F B- F A+ B+ A A+ C A F C- F A- F 44% 29% 27% F F B D+ C+ F C- F D-
1.18 65% 41% 40% +6 -2 1.11 22% 2.0 .44 13% .47 71% .34 1.15 58% 63% 27% +4 -1 1.09 23% 1.1 .26 10% .23 86% .20
Feb
28		 St. Francis (PA) F C+ A+ C C 43% 28% 30% D- C- D F F D F A+ F C- F A+ A+ B- 51% 18% 31% F C D B+ C C+ F D+ F
1.06 65% 54% 36% +8 -1 1.17 29% 0.5 .14 20% .21 91% .19 0.99 70% 13% 21% -5 +1 0.96 31% 0.8 .25 20% .35 72% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.0%
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 100.0% 10.2% 10.2% 16.0 0.1 10.1 89.8
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 10.2% 10.2% 0.0% 16.0 89.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 10.2% 100.0% 16.0 1.2 98.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 17.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 25.9%
Lose Out 46.0%