Central Connecticut St.
Northeast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.5#209
Expected Predictive Rating+0.3#164
Pace64.8#274
Improvement+0.5#165

Offense
Total Offense-4.7#300
First Shot-1.0#212
After Offensive Rebound-3.6#346
Layup/Dunks+1.2#133
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#27
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#276
Freethrows-2.7#328
Improvement+0.6#152

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#112
First Shot+0.7#153
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#67
Layups/Dunks-3.5#309
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#68
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#191
Freethrows+2.6#32
Improvement-0.1#188
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 52.5% 53.9% 45.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.8 15.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 97.5% 99.2% 88.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.2% 2.4% 7.3%
First Round51.0% 52.7% 42.1%
Second Round1.0% 1.0% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fairleigh Dickinson (Home) - 83.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 31 - 12 - 3
Quad 420 - 522 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 66   @ Providence L 55-59 12%     0 - 1 +6.6 -7.2 +13.3
  Nov 08, 2024 86   @ Saint Joseph's W 73-67 14%     1 - 1 +15.2 +7.1 +8.2
  Nov 16, 2024 206   Northeastern L 62-80 49%     1 - 2 -20.2 -10.6 -9.8
  Nov 21, 2024 288   @ Sacred Heart L 54-67 58%     1 - 3 -17.5 -20.5 +2.5
  Nov 24, 2024 313   Binghamton W 64-56 80%     2 - 3 -3.2 -1.0 -0.4
  Dec 01, 2024 203   Umass Lowell W 69-67 58%     3 - 3 -2.6 -9.7 +7.1
  Dec 04, 2024 152   @ Massachusetts W 73-69 29%     4 - 3 +7.2 +4.7 +2.6
  Dec 07, 2024 319   @ Holy Cross W 69-56 66%     5 - 3 +6.2 +0.1 +7.7
  Dec 15, 2024 121   @ Rhode Island L 69-77 24%     5 - 4 -3.2 -1.5 -1.6
  Dec 18, 2024 326   @ Fairfield W 64-63 69%     6 - 4 -6.7 -8.2 +1.6
  Dec 21, 2024 187   Quinnipiac W 84-80 55%     7 - 4 +0.2 +8.6 -8.6
  Jan 03, 2025 336   @ St. Francis (PA) W 74-59 73%     8 - 4 1 - 0 +6.0 +3.3 +3.9
  Jan 05, 2025 353   @ Mercyhurst W 62-50 78%     9 - 4 2 - 0 +1.4 -4.3 +7.8
  Jan 10, 2025 335   Wagner L 57-62 85%     9 - 5 2 - 1 -18.8 -10.9 -8.8
  Jan 12, 2025 327   LIU Brooklyn L 52-54 83%     9 - 6 2 - 2 -14.7 -12.2 -2.9
  Jan 18, 2025 322   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 71-60 68%     10 - 6 3 - 2 +3.6 -5.0 +8.6
  Jan 24, 2025 355   @ Le Moyne W 93-70 79%     11 - 6 4 - 2 +12.0 +17.3 -4.2
  Jan 26, 2025 359   Chicago St. W 81-64 90%     12 - 6 5 - 2 +0.3 +4.6 -4.0
  Jan 30, 2025 327   @ LIU Brooklyn W 63-50 69%     13 - 6 6 - 2 +5.3 -6.0 +12.0
  Feb 01, 2025 321   @ Stonehill W 71-63 68%     14 - 6 7 - 2 +0.8 -7.0 +7.6
  Feb 06, 2025 322   Fairleigh Dickinson W 74-64 84%    
  Feb 13, 2025 353   Mercyhurst W 70-57 90%    
  Feb 15, 2025 336   St. Francis (PA) W 72-61 87%    
  Feb 20, 2025 359   @ Chicago St. W 69-60 80%    
  Feb 22, 2025 321   Stonehill W 70-60 83%    
  Feb 27, 2025 355   Le Moyne W 76-63 90%    
  Mar 01, 2025 335   @ Wagner W 62-56 71%    
Projected Record 20 - 7 13 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 6.9 22.0 37.8 29.8 97.5 1st
2nd 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.2 2.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.1 0.3 2.0 7.8 22.3 37.8 29.8 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 29.8    29.8
13-3 100.0% 37.8    37.6 0.2
12-4 99.0% 22.0    20.2 1.9 0.0
11-5 88.2% 6.9    4.2 2.5 0.2
10-6 47.5% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0
9-7 3.8% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 97.5% 97.5 91.9 5.0 0.6 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 29.8% 59.2% 59.2% 14.0 0.2 3.4 9.7 4.3 0.1 12.2
13-3 37.8% 53.2% 53.2% 15.0 0.1 3.0 13.2 3.8 17.7
12-4 22.3% 48.0% 48.0% 15.5 0.3 5.0 5.4 11.6
11-5 7.8% 41.5% 41.5% 15.8 0.0 0.7 2.5 4.6
10-6 2.0% 36.8% 36.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.3
9-7 0.3% 38.5% 38.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.2
8-8 0.1% 0.0 0.1
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 52.5% 52.5% 0.0% 14.8 0.2 3.5 13.1 23.2 12.6 47.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 17.6% 100.0% 14.0 0.9 19.2 55.1 24.5 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.3%