Central Connecticut St.
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.6#244
Expected Predictive Rating+3.4#129
Pace64.9#302
Improvement+1.5#78

Offense
Total Offense-4.2#281
First Shot-0.8#203
After Offensive Rebound-3.3#344
Layup/Dunks-2.7#270
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#25
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#250
Freethrows+0.3#161
Improvement+2.9#10

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#179
First Shot-3.0#277
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#49
Layups/Dunks-2.5#274
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#115
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#291
Freethrows+1.8#85
Improvement-1.5#310
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.0% 38.5% 30.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.8 15.2 15.6
.500 or above 89.3% 96.0% 85.4%
.500 or above in Conference 91.4% 91.8% 91.1%
Conference Champion 52.4% 59.2% 48.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.3% 0.8%
First Four12.2% 10.3% 13.3%
First Round27.3% 33.0% 23.9%
Second Round0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northeastern (Away) - 36.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 1
Quad 31 - 33 - 4
Quad 416 - 618 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Thu, Nov 6 154 @Quinnipiac L 49-71 23%     0 - 1 -18.9 -20.7 +1.5
  Tue, Nov 11 132 @Boston College W 60-59 19%     1 - 1 +5.9 -2.8 +8.8
  Sun, Nov 16 175 @Massachusetts L 77-84 27%     1 - 2 -5.2 -0.8 -3.7
  Fri, Nov 21 120 @Rutgers W 67-54 16%     2 - 2 +19.1 +6.5 +14.3
  Mon, Nov 24 255 Sacred Heart W 108-106 OT 64%     3 - 2 -6.4 +12.7 -19.4
  Wed, Dec 3 76 @Seton Hall L 61-77 9%     3 - 3 -5.5 +1.3 -8.5
  Sun, Dec 7 227 @Northeastern L 67-71 37%    
  Sat, Dec 13 349 @Binghamton W 69-65 66%    
  Thu, Dec 18 294 Fairfield W 72-66 71%    
  Fri, Jan 2 230 @LIU Brooklyn L 68-72 37%    
  Sun, Jan 4 346 New Haven W 69-59 82%    
  Thu, Jan 8 338 Stonehill W 70-60 81%    
  Sat, Jan 10 321 @Le Moyne W 75-73 56%    
  Sat, Jan 17 356 @St. Francis (PA) W 73-67 71%    
  Mon, Jan 19 328 @Mercyhurst W 66-64 57%    
  Fri, Jan 23 362 Fairleigh Dickinson W 78-65 89%    
  Sun, Jan 25 338 @Stonehill W 67-63 63%    
  Thu, Jan 29 297 @Wagner W 68-67 51%    
  Sat, Jan 31 230 LIU Brooklyn W 71-69 58%    
  Thu, Feb 5 350 Chicago St. W 76-66 82%    
  Sat, Feb 7 297 Wagner W 71-65 71%    
  Thu, Feb 12 346 @New Haven W 66-62 63%    
  Sat, Feb 14 362 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 75-68 74%    
  Thu, Feb 19 321 Le Moyne W 78-70 75%    
  Sat, Feb 21 350 @Chicago St. W 73-69 65%    
  Thu, Feb 26 328 Mercyhurst W 69-61 76%    
  Sat, Feb 28 356 St. Francis (PA) W 76-64 86%    
Projected Record 17 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.5 5.6 10.7 12.3 10.8 7.2 48.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 5.5 6.9 3.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 19.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.3 4.3 1.2 0.1 11.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.8 2.8 0.7 0.0 0.0 6.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 2.0 0.5 0.0 4.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.4 0.0 2.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.2 4.0 6.2 9.2 12.1 13.7 14.6 13.3 11.0 7.2 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 99.9% 7.2    7.1 0.1
15-1 97.8% 10.8    10.1 0.7
14-2 92.2% 12.3    10.1 2.2 0.0
13-3 72.8% 10.7    6.5 3.7 0.4 0.0
12-4 40.6% 5.6    2.0 2.6 0.9 0.1
11-5 12.4% 1.5    0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0
10-6 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 48.1% 48.1 36.0 9.8 1.8 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 7.2% 54.7% 54.7% 14.8 0.2 1.1 2.0 0.7 3.3
15-1 11.0% 49.8% 49.8% 15.3 0.1 0.6 2.7 2.1 5.5
14-2 13.3% 44.1% 44.1% 15.6 0.0 0.1 1.8 3.9 7.5
13-3 14.6% 37.5% 37.5% 15.8 0.0 0.9 4.6 9.1
12-4 13.7% 31.6% 31.6% 15.9 0.0 0.3 4.0 9.4
11-5 12.1% 22.9% 22.9% 16.0 0.1 2.6 9.3
10-6 9.2% 18.8% 18.8% 16.0 0.0 1.7 7.5
9-7 6.2% 11.5% 11.5% 16.0 0.0 0.7 5.5
8-8 4.0% 9.8% 9.8% 16.0 0.4 3.6
7-9 2.2% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.1 2.0
6-10 1.3% 6.8% 6.8% 16.0 0.1 1.2
5-11 0.5% 6.8% 6.8% 16.0 0.0 0.5
4-12 0.2% 9.1% 9.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-13 0.1% 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 31.0% 31.0% 0.0% 15.6 0.3 1.8 8.0 20.9 69.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 12.3 9.2 57.9 28.9 3.9