Central Connecticut St.
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.3#278
Expected Predictive Rating-2.0#192
Pace64.9#303
Improvement-2.4#318

Offense
Total Offense-4.3#288
First Shot-1.5#212
After Offensive Rebound-2.9#341
Layup/Dunks-3.2#287
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#35
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#185
Freethrows-1.6#284
Improvement+0.7#122

Defense
Total Defense-2.0#235
First Shot-4.1#316
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#39
Layups/Dunks-2.4#264
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#82
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#333
Freethrows+1.6#74
Improvement-3.1#342
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.3% 30.9% 20.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.3 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 78.0% 90.3% 73.4%
.500 or above in Conference 90.1% 93.1% 88.9%
Conference Champion 36.3% 56.3% 28.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.2% 1.4%
First Four12.6% 13.6% 12.2%
First Round16.3% 23.5% 13.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: LIU Brooklyn (Away) - 27.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 32 - 32 - 5
Quad 414 - 816 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Thu, Nov 6 160 @Quinnipiac L 49-71 19%     0 - 1 -19.0 -20.3 +0.9
  Tue, Nov 11 156 @Boston College W 60-59 18%     1 - 1 +4.3 -4.4 +8.8
  Sun, Nov 16 164 @Massachusetts L 77-84 20%     1 - 2 -4.4 -0.1 -3.6
  Fri, Nov 21 147 @Rutgers W 67-54 17%     2 - 2 +16.9 +5.5 +13.0
  Mon, Nov 24 250 Sacred Heart W 108-106 OT 57%     3 - 2 -6.1 +14.9 -21.3
  Wed, Dec 3 54 @Seton Hall L 61-77 5%     3 - 3 -3.5 +4.0 -9.2
  Sun, Dec 7 205 @Northeastern L 56-73 27%     3 - 4 -16.9 -15.2 -2.0
  Sat, Dec 13 363 @Binghamton W 84-67 74%     4 - 4 +4.1 +10.0 -4.7
  Thu, Dec 18 277 Fairfield L 70-84 61%     4 - 5 -23.3 -4.0 -20.1
  Fri, Jan 2 206 @LIU Brooklyn L 70-76 27%    
  Sun, Jan 4 340 New Haven W 68-60 77%    
  Thu, Jan 8 338 Stonehill W 69-61 77%    
  Sat, Jan 10 312 @Le Moyne L 74-75 48%    
  Sat, Jan 17 361 @St. Francis (PA) W 74-68 72%    
  Mon, Jan 19 318 @Mercyhurst W 66-65 50%    
  Fri, Jan 23 357 Fairleigh Dickinson W 77-66 85%    
  Sun, Jan 25 338 @Stonehill W 66-64 57%    
  Thu, Jan 29 295 @Wagner L 68-70 42%    
  Sat, Jan 31 206 LIU Brooklyn L 72-73 48%    
  Thu, Feb 5 336 Chicago St. W 75-68 75%    
  Sat, Feb 7 295 Wagner W 71-67 63%    
  Thu, Feb 12 340 @New Haven W 65-63 57%    
  Sat, Feb 14 357 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 74-69 68%    
  Thu, Feb 19 312 Le Moyne W 77-71 69%    
  Sat, Feb 21 336 @Chicago St. W 72-71 56%    
  Thu, Feb 26 318 Mercyhurst W 68-62 70%    
  Sat, Feb 28 361 St. Francis (PA) W 77-65 86%    
Projected Record 15 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.5 5.5 8.9 9.2 6.3 3.3 34.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.9 6.6 7.2 3.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 20.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 5.6 5.2 1.6 0.2 0.0 14.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.0 4.1 0.9 0.0 9.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.7 3.4 0.6 0.0 7.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.6 2.8 0.7 0.0 5.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 1.7 0.7 0.0 3.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 1.1 0.6 0.1 2.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.4 4.3 7.0 9.6 12.3 14.3 14.4 12.6 10.1 6.4 3.3 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 99.8% 3.3    3.3 0.0
15-1 97.7% 6.3    5.9 0.3 0.0
14-2 91.0% 9.2    7.5 1.7 0.0
13-3 70.8% 8.9    5.3 3.2 0.4 0.0
12-4 38.0% 5.5    1.9 2.6 1.0 0.1 0.0
11-5 10.5% 1.5    0.1 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0
10-6 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 34.8% 34.8 24.0 8.4 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 3.3% 48.8% 48.8% 15.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.4 1.7
15-1 6.4% 43.3% 43.3% 15.5 0.1 1.1 1.5 3.6
14-2 10.1% 37.6% 37.6% 15.8 0.0 0.7 3.1 6.3
13-3 12.6% 31.4% 31.4% 15.9 0.3 3.7 8.6
12-4 14.4% 25.1% 25.1% 16.0 0.1 3.5 10.8
11-5 14.3% 19.4% 19.4% 16.0 0.0 2.7 11.5
10-6 12.3% 13.8% 13.8% 16.0 0.0 1.7 10.6
9-7 9.6% 10.6% 10.6% 16.0 0.0 1.0 8.6
8-8 7.0% 8.4% 8.4% 16.0 0.6 6.4
7-9 4.3% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.2 4.1
6-10 2.4% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 0.2 2.2
5-11 1.1% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.0 1.1
4-12 0.5% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4
3-13 0.2% 0.2
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 22.3% 22.3% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.4 3.3 18.6 77.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 13.2 10.3 61.5 25.6 2.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%