Central Connecticut St.
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -7.7 294
Expected Predictive Rating -5.8 258
Pace 64.1 303
Improvement -2.9 298

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- #237 C- D+ C D+ F+
Defense D #320 D+ C F+ B- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 343 61% 105 -3.5 299
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% 18 37% 213 +3.7 33
Three Pointers 38% 249 35% 152 -1.3 228
1st FG Attempt 1.00 209 -1.1 210
Second Chance 26.8% 288 0.99 234 0.27 277
Turnovers 17.0% 185
Freethrows 0.26 315 77% 21 0.20 250
Total Offense -2.5 237

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 96 56% 141 -1.4 225
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 356 40% 268 +2.3 23
Three Pointers 44% 75 36% 295 -3.5 321
1st FG Attempt 1.07 264 -2.5 264
Second Chance 31.5% 228 0.97 97 0.31 163
Turnovers 12.6% 355
Freethrows 0.26 45 79% 363 0.20 91
Total Defense -5.2 320

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -1.9 352 +1.1 354
Shot Type Accuracy +0.9 143 +1.3 231
Possession Length 18.7 318 17.4 214
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 342 0.15 100
Improvement +1.0 #128 -3.9 #341

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17% 19% 15%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 88% 96% 79%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 99%
Conference Champion 1% 1% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four11% 11% 12%
First Round11% 13% 9%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: New Haven (Away) - 52.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 00 - 1
Quad 32 - 32 - 4
Quad 414 - 916 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 195 @Quinnipiac L 49 - 71 21% -12  2% 0 - 1 F -21 F -23 F D+ A C+ +2 C- A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 129 @Boston College W 60 - 59 12% -4  8% 1 - 1 B- +6 D -4 B F+ D- A +10 A A- C
 Sun, Nov 16 183 @Massachusetts L 77 - 84 19% -12  0% 1 - 2 D+ -5 D -6 D+ D+ C+ C+ +1 B- F B+
 Fri, Nov 21 122 @Rutgers W 67 - 54 11% +5  80% 2 - 2 A +19 C+ +2 C- F A+ A+ +18 A A+ C+
 Mon, Nov 24 287 Sacred Heart W 108 - 106 OT 60% +2  66% 3 - 2 D -8 A- +10 B+ A+ C+ F -18 F D- F+
 Wed, Dec 3 53 @Seton Hall L 61 - 77 4% -9  2% 3 - 3 C- -3 C+ +3 A+ F C D -7 F A+ D-
 Sun, Dec 7 269 @Northeastern L 56 - 73 33% -14  4% 3 - 4 F -20 F -22 F F A C+ +1 C C- D-
 Sat, Dec 13 361 @Binghamton W 84 - 67 72% +8  87% 4 - 4 C+ +3 B+ +8 A+ D- F D+ -4 D- D+ F+
 Thu, Dec 18 262 Fairfield L 70 - 84 54% -14  16% 4 - 5 F -23 D- -7 F B B+ F -16 F D+ D+
 Fri, Jan 2 207 @LIU Brooklyn L 78 - 84 22% -1  33% 4 - 6 0 - 1 D+ -6 A+ +19 A+ C A F -26 F F F
 Sun, Jan 4 334 New Haven W 72 - 61 73% +10  99% 5 - 6 1 - 1 C- -3 B +7 A- C C+ D- -8 C+ F C-
 Thu, Jan 8 330 Stonehill W 76 - 69 72% +6  98% 6 - 6 2 - 1 D+ -7 B- +4 B+ A F F+ -10 F B D+
 Sat, Jan 10 303 @Le Moyne W 69 - 59 40% +6  89% 7 - 6 3 - 1 B- +5 F -10 F D- D A+ +15 A+ C+ D+
 Sat, Jan 17 355 @St. Francis (PA) W 98 - 90 64% +7  98% 8 - 6 4 - 1 C- -3 A+ +19 A+ F A+ F -22 F F F
 Mon, Jan 19 304 @Mercyhurst L 61 - 79 41% -14  0% 8 - 7 4 - 2 F -23 D- -7 F B- B F -19 F C- D-
 Fri, Jan 23 329 Fairleigh Dickinson L 66 - 76 72% -4  42% 8 - 8 4 - 3 F -24 D+ -4 D B- D- F -22 F B F
 Mon, Jan 26 330 @Stonehill L 59 - 61 51% +3  79% 8 - 9 4 - 4 D -10 F -10 C+ F+ F C+ +0 D B+ D+
 Thu, Jan 29 331 @Wagner W 62 - 55 51% +2  63% 9 - 9 5 - 4 C -1 F+ -8 D F+ C- A- +8 A+ B- F
 Sat, Jan 31 207 LIU Brooklyn L 59 - 80 42% -2  40% 9 - 10 5 - 5 F -27 F -14 F F B- F -14 F+ D+ F
 Thu, Feb 5 353 Chicago St. W 78 - 67 81% +3  66% 10 - 10 6 - 5 D+ -6 B- +4 B A- F D- -8 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 331 Wagner W 84 - 67 73% +9  91% 11 - 10 7 - 5 C+ +3 B +6 B+ A+ D+ C- -2 A- C F
 Thu, Feb 12 334 @New Haven W 66 - 65 52%
 Sat, Feb 14 329 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 71 - 70 50%
 Thu, Feb 19 303 Le Moyne W 76 - 73 64%
 Sat, Feb 21 353 @Chicago St. W 74 - 71 62%
 Thu, Feb 26 304 Mercyhurst W 69 - 65 64%
 Sat, Feb 28 355 St. Francis (PA) W 81 - 71 82%
Totals 15 - 12 11 - 7 -8 C- -3 C- D+ C D -5 D+ C F+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- B- C- C+ C+ 31% 31% 38% F+ C- D+ C- D+ C D B+ D+ D C+ D+ D C- 42% 14% 44% D- D+ C- B- C F+ B F B-
1.05 61% 37% 35% +1 -2 1.00 27% 1.0 .27 17% .26 77% .20 1.16 56% 40% 36% +1 +1 1.07 32% 1.0 .31 13% .26 79% .21
Nov
6		 Quinnipiac F F D- F F 26% 34% 40% F F D C D+ A D- F+ F+ C+ B D D+ C 47% 17% 37% F C- B+ A+ A+ F A+ C- A+
0.71 36% 28% 19% -18 -3 0.60 28% 1.0 .28 13% .23 64% .15 1.03 50% 40% 36% -2 +1 1.00 26% 0.6 .16 7% .11 71% .08
Nov
11		 Boston College D F+ A- A A- 31% 33% 37% F+ B B F F+ D- F D- F A B+ D A+ A+ 33% 16% 51% D A D A+ A- C A+ F B+
0.92 47% 44% 39% +1 -2 1.00 32% 0.4 .14 18% .19 60% .11 0.90 50% 44% 21% -11 0 0.80 34% 0.6 .20 15% .16 89% .14
Nov
16		 Massachusetts D C+ F A- C- 43% 31% 27% D- D+ F A+ D+ C+ A+ D A- C+ A- C+ C- B 40% 19% 40% D+ B- F D F B+ F+ A+ B
0.99 62% 27% 38% 0 -1 1.00 16% 1.6 .25 17% .48 68% .32 1.08 48% 36% 35% -4 0 0.95 44% 1.3 .56 22% .41 48% .20
Nov
21		 Rutgers C+ C D A C+ 31% 37% 33% F C- C F F A+ C D C- A+ A- A A- A+ 35% 29% 37% D+ A A A+ A+ C+ A+ B- A+
1.08 56% 32% 41% +1 -3 0.98 33% 0.5 .18 11% .25 71% .18 0.87 47% 29% 28% -10 -1 0.80 26% 0.8 .21 16% .19 70% .13
Nov
24		 Sacred Heart A- A+ B A- A- 46% 28% 26% D- B+ D A+ A+ C+ A+ B- A+ F C- F F F 39% 16% 44% D F C- F D- F+ F F F
1.32 77% 44% 40% +13 0 1.26 28% 1.9 .52 13% .47 76% .35 1.30 58% 50% 44% +9 +1 1.21 27% 1.2 .33 15% .37 96% .36
Dec
3		 Seton Hall C+ B+ F A+ A+ 41% 18% 41% C+ A+ D+ F F C F B F D A C F F 49% 16% 35% D- F B A+ A+ D- B+ F B-
0.96 61% 25% 44% +5 0 1.14 26% 0.3 .06 24% .25 75% .19 1.21 44% 38% 61% +7 +1 1.20 32% 0.5 .18 13% .27 80% .22
Dec
7		 Northeastern F F+ F F F 44% 25% 31% D+ F F F F A D- F F C+ C+ D+ C C+ 44% 10% 46% D- C A F C- D- B F C-
0.82 50% 14% 24% -14 0 0.73 21% 0.7 .15 13% .29 59% .17 1.07 57% 40% 33% -1 +2 1.04 19% 1.5 .29 15% .24 86% .21
Dec
13		 Binghamton B+ A+ C A+ A+ 42% 19% 38% C- A+ D- D D- F F C+ F D+ D- A+ A- D+ 56% 9% 35% F D- C F D+ F+ F+ C F+
1.29 82% 40% 45% +17 0 1.37 25% 1.0 .25 18% .21 73% .15 1.03 63% 25% 27% -2 +3 1.02 19% 1.0 .19 17% .44 75% .33
Dec
18		 Fairfield D- F D C F 30% 22% 48% F F C- A+ B B+ F+ A+ D+ F D+ F F F 40% 15% 45% D- F B- F D+ D+ C+ F+ C
1.06 31% 33% 35% -8 -1 0.83 30% 1.3 .40 12% .22 85% .19 1.27 59% 50% 44% +9 +1 1.22 31% 1.1 .34 14% .23 77% .17
Jan
2		 LIU Brooklyn A+ B+ B A+ A+ 37% 30% 33% F A+ C+ C- C A C- B+ C+ F A F F F 42% 10% 48% F F F C F F F C F+
1.33 65% 43% 53% +13 -1 1.26 35% 1.0 .35 14% .32 75% .24 1.43 45% 60% 48% +7 +2 1.19 54% 0.9 .51 9% .37 65% .24
Jan
4		 New Haven B C- B+ A+ A+ 29% 23% 48% F+ A- D+ A- C C+ F D F D- B- B- B+ B 37% 12% 51% F C+ F F F C- A+ B A+
1.23 57% 45% 48% +11 -1 1.23 25% 1.3 .32 15% .14 71% .10 1.04 56% 33% 28% -6 +1 0.92 40% 1.1 .46 19% .06 67% .04
Jan
8		 Stonehill B- A- B A+ A 28% 40% 33% F B+ D+ A+ A F A+ A+ A+ F+ B- F F F 55% 6% 39% F F D- A+ B D+ B- A- B-
1.15 67% 41% 43% +8 -3 1.12 24% 1.8 .44 20% .45 83% .38 1.04 50% 67% 40% +1 +3 1.10 32% 0.5 .18 20% .21 64% .13
Jan
10		 Le Moyne F C+ A+ F F+ 24% 39% 37% F F C+ F D- D A+ A- A+ A+ A+ B A+ A+ 51% 6% 43% F A+ C C+ C+ D+ B+ F C
0.97 58% 47% 17% -6 -3 0.84 34% 0.8 .26 17% .44 81% .36 0.83 37% 33% 17% -22 +3 0.64 25% 1.0 .25 18% .28 88% .24
Jan
17		 St. Francis (PA) A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 28% 34% 38% F A+ F B- F A+ A+ A A+ F D+ D F F 18% 30% 52% A F F D F F F D+ F
1.43 85% 44% 56% +22 -3 1.40 16% 1.3 .20 10% .55 79% .44 1.32 60% 41% 41% +7 -3 1.11 41% 1.1 .44 9% .35 73% .26
Jan
19		 Mercyhurst D- D+ F F F 35% 25% 40% F+ F B- C+ B- B F+ A D F C+ F F F 37% 33% 29% C- F F A C- D- A+ F A
0.99 53% 25% 21% -13 -1 0.75 38% 1.1 .40 16% .29 80% .23 1.28 53% 59% 60% +16 -2 1.31 33% 0.9 .30 13% .07 100% .07
Jan
23		 Fairleigh Dickinson D+ F A+ F+ D+ 36% 34% 30% F D A- D+ B- D- F+ A+ C- F F A+ F F 40% 20% 40% C- F A+ D- B F B+ F B-
1.12 50% 60% 31% +3 -2 1.05 36% 0.9 .32 19% .27 85% .23 1.29 70% 20% 50% +11 0 1.24 21% 1.0 .21 9% .20 82% .17
Jan
26		 Stonehill F C- C+ A+ B- 47% 31% 22% D C+ F D+ F+ F F F F C+ F F A+ D+ 47% 9% 44% F D C- A+ B+ D+ F B- F
0.90 54% 38% 45% +2 -1 1.04 17% 1.0 .17 20% .08 50% .04 0.93 71% 50% 15% -5 +2 0.96 29% 0.6 .17 20% .46 67% .30
Jan
29		 Wagner F+ B+ F F+ D- 43% 13% 43% C+ D F B+ F+ C- F+ B- D- A- A F A+ A+ 40% 7% 53% F A+ C+ B B- F F C+ F
1.03 65% 17% 30% -2 +1 1.00 18% 1.2 .21 15% .31 75% .24 0.92 41% 67% 17% -18 +2 0.70 31% 1.0 .31 12% .41 68% .28
Jan
31		 LIU Brooklyn F C- F F+ F 25% 33% 41% F F D- F F B- D+ A+ B+ F D B+ F D- 51% 19% 30% F+ F+ B+ F D+ F F F F
0.89 54% 18% 29% -11 -3 0.75 27% 0.8 .22 17% .29 94% .27 1.21 63% 33% 43% +5 +1 1.15 31% 1.2 .38 14% .44 76% .33
Feb
5		 Chicago St. B- A+ A+ B A- 24% 17% 59% F+ B B- A A- F B+ A+ A+ D- F+ A+ C+ D+ 35% 24% 41% F D+ A+ A A+ F B- F C
1.25 80% 57% 38% +12 -1 1.24 39% 1.3 .52 24% .40 89% .36 1.07 63% 23% 32% -3 -1 0.94 17% 0.7 .11 5% .24 86% .20
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Wagner B A+ F A+ A+ 36% 43% 21% F B+ C+ A+ A+ D+ A+ B A+ C- A+ D- A A 41% 20% 39% C- A- C C- C F B- C- C+
1.28 87% 28% 56% +13 -3 1.21 32% 1.7 .55 15% .56 77% .43 1.02 39% 45% 27% -10 0 0.82 31% 1.2 .36 14% .25 71% .18



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 4.8 23.0 21.3 6.1 55.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.5 14.0 7.7 0.5 23.6 3rd
4th 0.1 4.8 5.4 0.1 10.3 4th
5th 0.7 4.7 0.4 5.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.7 1.2 3.0 6th
7th 0.3 0.9 0.1 1.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.4 3.4 12.3 24.6 30.8 22.0 6.5 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 5.7% 0.4    0.1 0.3
12-4 1.2% 0.3    0.0 0.2 0.0
11-5 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.1 0.5 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 6.5% 24.3% 24.3% 15.3 0.1 0.8 0.6 4.9
12-4 22.0% 21.1% 21.1% 15.9 0.3 4.3 17.3
11-5 30.8% 16.5% 16.5% 16.0 0.2 4.8 25.8
10-6 24.6% 15.9% 15.9% 16.0 0.1 3.9 20.7
9-7 12.3% 12.4% 12.4% 16.0 1.5 10.7
8-8 3.4% 8.7% 8.7% 16.0 0.3 3.1
7-9 0.4% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.0 0.4
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 17.1% 17.1% 0.0% 15.9 83.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.6% 100.0% 15.3 8.2 51.3 40.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.5%
Lose Out 0.2%