Central Connecticut St.
Northeast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.9#197
Expected Predictive Rating+1.0#151
Pace65.1#264
Improvement+0.7#169

Offense
Total Offense-4.2#284
First Shot-0.6#189
After Offensive Rebound-3.6#345
Layup/Dunks+1.5#126
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#27
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#271
Freethrows-2.7#324
Improvement+1.3#122

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#103
First Shot+0.8#153
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#68
Layups/Dunks-3.4#303
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#67
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#194
Freethrows+2.6#34
Improvement-0.6#222
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 77.8% 100.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% n/a 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.8 n/a
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round77.8% 99.9% 0.0%
Second Round1.2% 1.6% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 0
Quad 20 - 11 - 1
Quad 31 - 12 - 2
Quad 422 - 424 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 87   @ Providence L 55-59 16%     0 - 1 +4.7 -9.0 +13.2
  Nov 08, 2024 76   @ Saint Joseph's W 73-67 13%     1 - 1 +16.2 +6.7 +9.6
  Nov 16, 2024 209   Northeastern L 62-80 53%     1 - 2 -20.7 -10.6 -10.3
  Nov 21, 2024 266   @ Sacred Heart L 54-67 54%     1 - 3 -16.0 -20.7 +4.2
  Nov 24, 2024 308   Binghamton W 64-56 82%     2 - 3 -3.5 +0.3 -2.1
  Dec 01, 2024 237   Umass Lowell W 69-67 68%     3 - 3 -4.9 -10.8 +5.9
  Dec 04, 2024 190   @ Massachusetts W 73-69 38%     4 - 3 +5.2 +3.9 +1.4
  Dec 07, 2024 319   @ Holy Cross W 69-56 68%     5 - 3 +6.2 +0.7 +7.2
  Dec 15, 2024 138   @ Rhode Island L 69-77 28%     5 - 4 -3.9 -3.2 -0.6
  Dec 18, 2024 325   @ Fairfield W 64-63 69%     6 - 4 -6.0 -5.8 -0.2
  Dec 21, 2024 204   Quinnipiac W 84-80 62%     7 - 4 -1.2 +8.4 -9.7
  Jan 03, 2025 326   @ St. Francis (PA) W 74-59 69%     8 - 4 1 - 0 +7.9 +3.1 +6.0
  Jan 05, 2025 342   @ Mercyhurst W 62-50 76%     9 - 4 2 - 0 +2.6 -5.2 +9.9
  Jan 10, 2025 345   Wagner L 57-62 89%     9 - 5 2 - 1 -20.1 -9.8 -11.1
  Jan 12, 2025 301   LIU Brooklyn L 52-54 80%     9 - 6 2 - 2 -12.8 -10.4 -2.9
  Jan 18, 2025 314   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 71-60 67%     10 - 6 3 - 2 +4.6 -3.0 +7.6
  Jan 24, 2025 355   @ Le Moyne W 93-70 82%     11 - 6 4 - 2 +11.5 +15.3 -2.8
  Jan 26, 2025 361   Chicago St. W 81-64 94%     12 - 6 5 - 2 -2.7 +0.8 -3.3
  Jan 30, 2025 301   @ LIU Brooklyn W 63-50 63%     13 - 6 6 - 2 +7.7 -3.9 +12.3
  Feb 01, 2025 331   @ Stonehill W 71-63 72%     14 - 6 7 - 2 +0.1 -8.4 +8.3
  Feb 06, 2025 314   Fairleigh Dickinson W 87-66 83%     15 - 6 8 - 2 +9.1 +10.1 -1.0
  Feb 13, 2025 342   Mercyhurst W 73-63 88%     16 - 6 9 - 2 -4.9 -4.3 -0.1
  Feb 15, 2025 326   St. Francis (PA) W 83-67 84%     17 - 6 10 - 2 +3.4 +7.7 -3.4
  Feb 20, 2025 361   @ Chicago St. W 81-75 87%     18 - 6 11 - 2 -8.2 +1.6 -9.9
  Feb 22, 2025 331   Stonehill W 67-41 86%     19 - 6 12 - 2 +12.6 -7.2 +22.2
  Feb 27, 2025 355   Le Moyne W 84-75 91%     20 - 6 13 - 2 -8.0 -2.1 -6.1
  Mar 01, 2025 345   @ Wagner W 55-48 77%     21 - 6 14 - 2 -2.6 -4.3 +3.6
  Mar 05, 2025 355   Le Moyne W 86-67 91%     22 - 6 +2.0 +6.2 -3.1
  Mar 08, 2025 314   Fairleigh Dickinson W 76-72 OT 83%     23 - 6 -7.9 -4.8 -3.3
  Mar 11, 2025 326   St. Francis (PA) W 74-63 84%    
Projected Record 24 - 6 14 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 100.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 100.0    100.0
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 77.8% 77.8% 14.8 0.3 19.1 51.9 6.5 22.2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 77.8% 77.8% 0.0% 14.8 0.3 19.1 51.9 6.5 22.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 77.8% 100.0% 14.8 0.3 24.5 66.7 8.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 22.2%