Central Connecticut St.
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.5 #277
Expected Predictive Rating -2.9 #217
Pace 64.9 #285
Improvement -2.3 #286

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #213 C D B- C- F
Defense #318 D+ C F B+ F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #351 1.21 #117 -4.2 #321
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #18 0.77 #150 +4.0 #27
Three Pointers 39% #232 1.06 #123 -0.4 #192
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #180 -0.6 #198
Freethrows 15.3 #283 76% #69 11.7 #234
Second Chance 27.1% #280 0.96 #291 0.26 #303
Turnovers 15.1% #94
Total Offense -1.5 #213

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #91 1.06 #68 +0.2 #170
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #352 0.90 #345 +1.6 #74
Three Pointers 45% #81 1.14 #329 -4.6 #337
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #269 -2.8 #270
Freethrows 12.6 #11 83% #365 10.4 #35
Second Chance 32.6% #262 0.99 #112 0.32 #198
Turnovers 12.9% #348
Total Defense -5.0 #318

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -4.0% #354 2.3% #349
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.7% #119 3.1% #237
Possession Length 18.7 #312 17.5 #207
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #283 0.12 #43
Improvement +3.9 #18 -6.2 #364

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.8% 28.2% 21.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 92.1% 95.0% 80.4%
.500 or above in Conference 98.8% 99.5% 95.9%
Conference Champion 25.5% 28.9% 11.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four12.2% 12.0% 12.9%
First Round20.4% 21.8% 14.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fairleigh Dickinson (Home) - 80.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 01 - 1
Quad 31 - 32 - 4
Quad 415 - 717 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 175 @Quinnipiac L 49 - 71 21% -12  0 - 1 -20 -21 F D- A +0 C A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 134 @Boston College W 60 - 59 15% -4  1 - 1 +6 -3 A- F F +8 A+ B- C
 Sun, Nov 16 176 @Massachusetts L 77 - 84 21% -12  1 - 2 -5 -2 C- C- C- -3 B- F A-
 Fri, Nov 21 115 @Rutgers W 67 - 54 12% +5  2 - 2 +19 +6 C F A+ +15 A+ A+ C
 Mon, Nov 24 270 Sacred Heart W 108 - 106 OT 60% +2  3 - 2 -7 +13 A- A+ C+ -20 F D F
 Wed, Dec 3 56 @Seton Hall L 61 - 77 4% -9  3 - 3 -3 +6 A+ F D+ -10 F A+ D-
 Sun, Dec 7 259 @Northeastern L 56 - 73 34% -14  3 - 4 -19 -19 F F A+ -1 C C D-
 Sat, Dec 13 362 @Binghamton W 84 - 67 73% +8  4 - 4 +4 +12 A+ F F -6 D- D+ F
 Thu, Dec 18 274 Fairfield L 70 - 84 60% -14  4 - 5 -23 -5 F A- B+ -19 F C- D+
 Fri, Jan 2 222 @LIU Brooklyn L 78 - 84 28% -1  4 - 6 0 - 1 -7 +21 A+ C- A+ -28 F F F
 Sun, Jan 4 331 New Haven W 72 - 61 75% +10  5 - 6 1 - 1 -3 +9 A C B- -10 C+ F D+
 Thu, Jan 8 339 Stonehill W 76 - 69 77% +6  6 - 6 2 - 1 -7 +5 B+ A+ F -11 F A- D+
 Sat, Jan 10 278 @Le Moyne W 69 - 59 39% +6  7 - 6 3 - 1 +6 -7 F F D +13 A+ B C-
 Sat, Jan 17 358 @St. Francis (PA) W 98 - 90 69% +7  8 - 6 4 - 1 -4 +23 A+ F A+ -26 F F F
 Mon, Jan 19 306 @Mercyhurst L 61 - 79 45% -14  8 - 7 4 - 2 -23 -4 F B- B -22 F C F
 Fri, Jan 23 348 Fairleigh Dickinson W 76 - 67 80%
 Sun, Jan 25 339 @Stonehill W 69 - 67 57%
 Thu, Jan 29 326 @Wagner W 73 - 72 53%
 Sat, Jan 31 222 LIU Brooklyn W 74 - 73 51%
 Thu, Feb 5 357 Chicago St. W 78 - 67 85%
 Sat, Feb 7 326 Wagner W 76 - 69 74%
 Thu, Feb 12 331 @New Haven W 67 - 66 54%
 Sat, Feb 14 348 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 73 - 70 61%
 Thu, Feb 19 278 Le Moyne W 76 - 73 61%
 Sat, Feb 21 357 @Chicago St. W 75 - 70 67%
 Thu, Feb 26 306 Mercyhurst W 70 - 65 67%
 Sat, Feb 28 358 St. Francis (PA) W 80 - 69 85%
Totals 16 - 11 12 - 6 -7 -2 C D B- -5 D+ C F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.2 6.9 8.8 5.8 1.5 25.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 5.1 11.6 11.0 4.5 0.6 33.3 2nd
3rd 0.4 4.3 9.4 5.8 1.4 0.1 21.4 3rd
4th 0.1 2.0 5.2 2.7 0.4 10.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 2.8 1.4 0.1 5.3 5th
6th 0.2 1.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 2.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.8 6.4 11.5 17.5 20.0 19.3 13.4 6.5 1.5 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.5    1.4 0.1
15-1 90.2% 5.8    4.6 1.2 0.0
14-2 65.8% 8.8    5.1 3.4 0.3 0.0
13-3 35.7% 6.9    2.5 3.3 1.0 0.1
12-4 11.1% 2.2    0.3 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
11-5 1.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 25.5% 25.5 14.0 9.0 2.1 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.5% 51.5% 51.5% 14.2 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.7
15-1 6.5% 47.5% 47.5% 15.3 0.2 1.7 1.1 3.4
14-2 13.4% 37.9% 37.9% 15.7 0.0 0.0 1.4 3.6 8.3
13-3 19.3% 31.3% 31.3% 15.9 0.0 0.8 5.2 13.2
12-4 20.0% 25.6% 25.6% 15.9 0.3 4.8 14.9
11-5 17.5% 20.6% 20.6% 16.0 0.1 3.5 13.9
10-6 11.5% 17.3% 17.3% 16.0 0.0 2.0 9.5
9-7 6.4% 12.6% 12.6% 16.0 0.0 0.8 5.6
8-8 2.8% 11.4% 11.4% 16.0 0.3 2.5
7-9 1.0% 6.6% 6.6% 16.0 0.1 0.9
6-10 0.2% 0.2
5-11 0.0% 0.0
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 26.8% 26.8% 0.0% 15.8 73.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 14.2 12.5 59.9 27.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%