Northeast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
209 Central Connecticut St. 52.5%   16   14 - 6 7 - 2 20 - 7 13 - 3 -2.5      -4.7 300 +2.2 112 64.8 274 +0.3 164 -3.4 1
321 Stonehill 9.9%   10 - 12 4 - 5 14 - 15 8 - 8 -9.7      -5.0 305 -4.8 309 64.6 277 -8.3 300 -12.7 5
322 Fairleigh Dickinson 9.9%   6 - 14 5 - 3 10 - 18 9 - 7 -9.9      -5.4 318 -4.5 304 72.6 76 -10.6 328 -8.1 3
327 LIU Brooklyn 9.5%   8 - 15 6 - 4 11 - 18 9 - 7 -10.2      -9.2 359 -1.0 208 65.6 254 -10.4 326 -8.1 4
335 Wagner 6.0%   8 - 10 4 - 5 11 - 14 7 - 9 -11.3      -7.8 349 -3.6 278 56.5 361 -9.8 320 -13.1 7
336 St. Francis (PA) 4.6%   5 - 15 3 - 6 8 - 19 6 - 10 -11.5      -6.4 336 -5.1 318 68.5 174 -12.1 336 -14.5 8
353 Mercyhurst 3.4%   9 - 13 6 - 4 12 - 16 9 - 7 -13.1      -7.7 347 -5.4 329 62.3 334 -8.7 307 -7.9 2
355 Le Moyne 2.0%   5 - 16 2 - 6 8 - 21 5 - 11 -13.5      -5.2 312 -8.3 357 70.2 128 -12.8 337 -16.3 9
359 Chicago St. 2.2%   3 - 20 3 - 5 6 - 25 6 - 10 -14.2      -11.0 362 -3.2 268 70.7 114 -15.1 353 -13.0 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
Central Connecticut St. 1.0 97.5 2.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Stonehill 4.8 0.5 10.0 16.2 18.8 20.1 16.2 11.2 5.2 1.8
Fairleigh Dickinson 3.1 4.8 42.2 21.9 15.0 8.1 4.9 2.2 0.7 0.1
LIU Brooklyn 3.0 2.1 45.0 25.1 14.4 7.5 4.3 1.4 0.2
Wagner 5.4 0.2 7.8 11.6 14.2 16.9 18.2 16.6 10.5 4.0
St. Francis (PA) 6.4 0.0 1.5 4.9 10.4 14.8 18.3 19.5 17.5 13.2
Mercyhurst 3.6 1.3 23.9 29.5 23.0 12.2 6.6 2.5 1.0 0.0
Le Moyne 7.5 0.6 2.0 4.0 7.0 11.2 16.3 23.1 35.8
Chicago St. 6.7 0.0 2.0 4.7 8.1 10.9 15.3 18.9 22.7 17.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Central Connecticut St. 13 - 3 0.1 0.3 2.0 7.8 22.3 37.8 29.8
Stonehill 8 - 8 0.8 4.7 15.5 28.1 27.8 16.7 5.6 0.9
Fairleigh Dickinson 9 - 7 0.4 2.6 9.6 20.1 26.5 22.7 13.2 4.4 0.6
LIU Brooklyn 9 - 7 1.4 8.9 20.3 28.8 25.2 12.6 2.8
Wagner 7 - 9 2.5 11.1 21.8 27.0 21.7 11.6 3.8 0.5
St. Francis (PA) 6 - 10 1.4 7.0 18.8 27.5 25.4 15.1 4.5 0.4
Mercyhurst 9 - 7 3.6 15.3 29.3 30.2 16.6 4.6 0.4
Le Moyne 5 - 11 1.8 9.1 19.5 26.3 23.6 13.1 5.3 1.1 0.1
Chicago St. 6 - 10 2.9 11.7 21.7 27.0 21.0 10.9 3.7 1.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Central Connecticut St. 97.5% 91.9 5.0 0.6 0.0 0.0
Stonehill 0.5% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Fairleigh Dickinson 4.8% 1.6 2.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
LIU Brooklyn 2.1% 0.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
Wagner 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
St. Francis (PA) 0.0% 0.0
Mercyhurst 1.3% 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Le Moyne
Chicago St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Central Connecticut St. 52.5% 52.5% 0.0% 16   0.2 3.5 13.1 23.2 12.6 47.5 0.0%
Stonehill 9.9% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0 9.8 90.1 0.0%
Fairleigh Dickinson 9.9% 9.9% 0.0% 0.1 9.9 90.1 0.0%
LIU Brooklyn 9.5% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0 9.4 90.6 0.0%
Wagner 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 6.0 94.0 0.0%
St. Francis (PA) 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 4.6 95.4 0.0%
Mercyhurst 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 3.4 96.6 0.0%
Le Moyne 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0 98.1 0.0%
Chicago St. 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 2.2 97.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Central Connecticut St. 52.5% 3.2% 51.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stonehill 9.9% 9.3% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairleigh Dickinson 9.9% 9.8% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
LIU Brooklyn 9.5% 9.3% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wagner 6.0% 5.9% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Francis (PA) 4.6% 4.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercyhurst 3.4% 3.4% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Le Moyne 2.0% 2.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chicago St. 2.2% 2.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 68.7% 0.7 31.3 68.7
2nd Round 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0
Sweet Sixteen 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0