Northeast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
221 Central Connecticut St. 43.4%   16   6 - 4 0 - 0 19 - 8 12 - 4 -3.0      -4.7 300 +1.7 120 64.5 291 +3.0 121 0.0 1
309 Wagner 14.1%   4 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 12 9 - 7 -8.2      -9.0 358 +0.8 145 57.0 363 -3.6 229 0.0 1
322 Stonehill 11.0%   4 - 7 0 - 0 14 - 15 9 - 7 -9.1      -5.0 313 -4.1 302 65.1 277 -6.3 275 0.0 1
332 Le Moyne 8.1%   3 - 8 0 - 0 11 - 18 8 - 8 -10.2      -5.7 331 -4.4 309 70.6 132 -8.6 310 0.0 1
334 Fairleigh Dickinson 8.1%   1 - 9 0 - 0 9 - 19 8 - 8 -10.2      -2.9 253 -7.3 356 77.2 21 -12.8 338 0.0 1
336 St. Francis (PA) 5.9%   2 - 8 0 - 0 10 - 17 7 - 9 -11.1      -5.8 333 -5.3 330 70.7 129 -7.5 293 0.0 1
340 LIU Brooklyn 5.2%   2 - 10 0 - 0 10 - 19 7 - 9 -11.4      -7.5 353 -3.8 293 70.2 147 -10.9 327 0.0 1
358 Mercyhurst 2.2%   3 - 8 0 - 0 9 - 19 6 - 10 -14.1      -7.9 356 -6.1 348 62.7 333 -9.0 315 0.0 1
360 Chicago St. 1.9%   0 - 13 0 - 0 6 - 25 6 - 10 -14.2      -9.8 361 -4.4 311 72.5 84 -15.7 352 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
Central Connecticut St. 1.7 65.3 18.2 8.1 4.1 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.1
Wagner 3.6 16.4 21.9 17.4 13.7 10.2 8.2 6.0 3.9 2.3
Stonehill 4.0 11.6 18.5 17.2 14.7 12.3 9.8 7.6 5.4 3.0
Le Moyne 4.6 7.9 14.1 14.8 14.6 13.6 12.1 10.1 7.8 5.1
Fairleigh Dickinson 4.6 7.7 13.5 15.0 14.2 13.5 12.1 10.2 8.7 5.2
St. Francis (PA) 5.0 5.7 10.8 12.7 13.9 13.8 13.2 12.0 10.3 7.5
LIU Brooklyn 5.2 4.6 9.6 12.4 13.5 13.7 14.0 12.9 11.3 7.9
Mercyhurst 6.6 1.3 3.5 5.8 8.1 10.2 12.9 15.8 19.5 22.8
Chicago St. 6.7 1.0 3.2 5.3 7.8 10.1 12.8 16.5 19.8 23.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Central Connecticut St. 12 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.5 3.2 5.9 9.5 14.5 17.6 18.1 15.4 10.0 3.2
Wagner 9 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 4.2 7.0 10.7 13.2 15.2 14.9 12.7 9.4 5.6 2.7 0.8 0.2
Stonehill 9 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.0 5.5 9.0 12.6 14.8 15.5 14.0 10.9 7.2 3.8 1.5 0.5 0.0
Le Moyne 8 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.3 4.8 8.0 11.7 14.2 15.6 14.2 11.5 8.5 4.9 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.0
Fairleigh Dickinson 8 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.4 5.3 8.4 11.6 14.3 15.1 14.3 11.4 8.0 4.6 2.3 0.8 0.3 0.0
St. Francis (PA) 7 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.5 6.5 10.1 13.4 15.2 15.1 12.8 9.6 6.2 3.5 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
LIU Brooklyn 7 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.9 7.0 11.0 14.1 15.9 14.7 12.6 9.0 5.5 2.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Mercyhurst 6 - 10 0.5 2.3 5.8 10.3 14.1 16.1 15.4 13.6 9.8 6.2 3.4 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Chicago St. 6 - 10 0.4 2.4 6.1 10.8 14.1 16.6 16.1 13.1 9.6 5.8 3.0 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Central Connecticut St. 65.3% 51.8 11.0 2.1 0.3 0.0
Wagner 16.4% 9.6 5.2 1.3 0.3 0.0
Stonehill 11.6% 6.5 3.8 1.1 0.2 0.0
Le Moyne 7.9% 4.1 2.7 0.9 0.2 0.0
Fairleigh Dickinson 7.7% 4.0 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.0
St. Francis (PA) 5.7% 2.9 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
LIU Brooklyn 4.6% 2.3 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
Mercyhurst 1.3% 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Chicago St. 1.0% 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Central Connecticut St. 43.4% 43.4% 0.0% 16   0.0 1.1 2.9 7.3 14.6 17.4 56.6 0.0%
Wagner 14.1% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 12.8 85.9 0.0%
Stonehill 11.0% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 10.7 89.0 0.0%
Le Moyne 8.1% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 8.0 91.9 0.0%
Fairleigh Dickinson 8.1% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 8.1 91.9 0.0%
St. Francis (PA) 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 5.9 94.1 0.0%
LIU Brooklyn 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 5.2 94.8 0.0%
Mercyhurst 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 2.2 97.8 0.0%
Chicago St. 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 1.9 98.1 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Central Connecticut St. 43.4% 8.7% 38.8% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wagner 14.1% 10.8% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stonehill 11.0% 9.7% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Le Moyne 8.1% 7.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairleigh Dickinson 8.1% 7.9% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Francis (PA) 5.9% 5.6% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
LIU Brooklyn 5.2% 5.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercyhurst 2.2% 2.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chicago St. 1.9% 1.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 65.0% 0.7 35.0 65.0
2nd Round 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0