Stonehill
Northeast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.7#321
Expected Predictive Rating-8.3#300
Pace64.6#277
Improvement-2.9#309

Offense
Total Offense-5.0#305
First Shot-2.1#238
After Offensive Rebound-2.8#329
Layup/Dunks-4.7#336
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#242
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#52
Freethrows-1.0#252
Improvement-1.0#252

Defense
Total Defense-4.8#309
First Shot-4.3#308
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#225
Layups/Dunks-2.0#263
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#242
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#179
Freethrows-2.2#321
Improvement-1.8#280
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.9% 11.6% 8.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 31.3% 49.5% 18.6%
.500 or above in Conference 50.9% 72.4% 35.9%
Conference Champion 0.5% 1.0% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 6.1% 1.8% 9.0%
First Four9.3% 10.6% 8.4%
First Round4.2% 5.2% 3.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: LIU Brooklyn (Away) - 41.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 42 - 7
Quad 413 - 914 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 83   @ Notre Dame L 60-89 5%     0 - 1 -19.2 -8.3 -11.8
  Nov 09, 2024 66   @ Providence L 49-76 4%     0 - 2 -16.4 -20.6 +5.0
  Nov 14, 2024 194   @ Robert Morris L 51-63 16%     0 - 3 -11.1 -19.2 +7.7
  Nov 15, 2024 351   New Orleans W 80-54 62%     1 - 3 +13.2 -0.8 +13.6
  Nov 17, 2024 349   Lindenwood L 74-75 60%     1 - 4 -13.4 +0.5 -14.0
  Nov 21, 2024 144   Bryant W 67-66 21%     2 - 4 -0.3 -5.6 +5.3
  Nov 25, 2024 343   Texas A&M - Commerce W 67-65 67%     3 - 4 -12.3 -2.1 -10.0
  Nov 27, 2024 21   @ Marquette L 59-94 1%     3 - 5 -16.8 -2.9 -14.8
  Dec 01, 2024 187   Quinnipiac W 88-74 28%     4 - 5 +10.2 +20.5 -9.5
  Dec 15, 2024 176   @ Boston College L 69-73 14%     4 - 6 -2.3 +4.8 -7.7
  Dec 18, 2024 203   @ Umass Lowell L 67-78 17%     4 - 7 -10.6 -5.8 -5.2
  Dec 22, 2024 357   New Hampshire W 90-83 74%     5 - 7 -9.3 +13.0 -22.2
  Dec 29, 2024 281   @ Lafayette W 70-65 30%     6 - 7 +0.8 -1.9 +2.8
  Jan 03, 2025 353   @ Mercyhurst L 69-76 54%     6 - 8 0 - 1 -17.6 -7.2 -10.5
  Jan 05, 2025 336   @ St. Francis (PA) W 64-60 47%     7 - 8 1 - 1 -5.0 -5.2 +0.7
  Jan 10, 2025 327   LIU Brooklyn L 60-70 61%     7 - 9 1 - 2 -22.7 -8.4 -15.4
  Jan 12, 2025 359   @ Chicago St. W 68-52 58%     8 - 9 2 - 2 +4.3 +1.0 +5.2
  Jan 20, 2025 355   @ Le Moyne L 72-73 55%     8 - 10 2 - 3 -12.0 -4.2 -7.8
  Jan 24, 2025 359   Chicago St. W 75-73 75%     9 - 10 3 - 3 -14.7 +1.9 -16.5
  Jan 26, 2025 322   Fairleigh Dickinson L 54-65 60%     9 - 11 3 - 4 -23.4 -18.5 -6.1
  Jan 30, 2025 335   Wagner W 73-61 65%     10 - 11 4 - 4 -1.8 +8.5 -8.2
  Feb 01, 2025 209   Central Connecticut St. L 63-71 32%     10 - 12 4 - 5 -13.0 -10.4 -2.4
  Feb 08, 2025 327   @ LIU Brooklyn L 64-66 41%    
  Feb 13, 2025 336   St. Francis (PA) W 72-68 67%    
  Feb 15, 2025 353   Mercyhurst W 69-63 73%    
  Feb 20, 2025 335   @ Wagner L 61-62 45%    
  Feb 22, 2025 209   @ Central Connecticut St. L 60-70 17%    
  Feb 27, 2025 322   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 71-73 39%    
  Mar 01, 2025 355   Le Moyne W 76-70 73%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 1st
2nd 0.2 4.9 4.3 0.7 10.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 5.9 9.3 1.1 16.2 3rd
4th 2.3 14.2 2.3 18.8 4th
5th 0.5 12.3 7.2 0.2 20.1 5th
6th 0.0 4.4 11.3 0.4 16.2 6th
7th 1.1 8.0 2.1 11.2 7th
8th 0.2 2.5 2.5 0.1 5.2 8th
9th 0.6 1.1 0.1 1.8 9th
Total 0.8 4.7 15.5 28.1 27.8 16.7 5.6 0.9 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 25.3% 0.2    0.1 0.2 0.0
10-6 4.3% 0.2    0.1 0.2 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.9% 20.7% 20.7% 15.8 0.0 0.2 0.7
10-6 5.6% 16.5% 16.5% 16.0 0.9 4.7
9-7 16.7% 13.8% 13.8% 16.0 2.3 14.4
8-8 27.8% 10.3% 10.3% 16.0 0.0 2.8 24.9
7-9 28.1% 8.7% 8.7% 16.0 2.5 25.6
6-10 15.5% 6.8% 6.8% 16.0 1.1 14.5
5-11 4.7% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.1 4.6
4-12 0.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.8
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 9.9% 9.9% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.8 90.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 0.7%