Stonehill
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -10.9 330
Expected Predictive Rating -11.7 338
Pace 65.0 278
Improvement +2.1 101

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense F #363 F+ D F F+ C+
Defense C #151 C B- F B- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 165 50% 347 -2.9 284
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 202 36% 239 -0.8 224
Three Pointers 42% 163 28% 357 -3.3 291
1st FG Attempt 0.88 353 -7.0 353
Second Chance 27.8% 258 0.86 352 0.24 331
Turnovers 21.2% 354
Freethrows 0.23 355 70% 266 0.16 358
Total Offense -11.4 363

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 37 55% 90 -1.9 248
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 134 35% 71 +0.3 163
Three Pointers 34% 342 36% 292 +2.2 92
1st FG Attempt 1.01 163 +0.6 163
Second Chance 26.5% 49 1.07 260 0.28 95
Turnovers 11.6% 364
Freethrows 0.28 118 69% 41 0.20 88
Total Defense +0.5 151

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.2 172 +0.3 223
Shot Type Accuracy -7.0 359 -0.8 150
Possession Length 18.6 312 16.7 81
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 304 0.17 176
Improvement -1.2 #259 +3.3 #30

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7% 8% 5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 1% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 92% 98% 85%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 1%
First Four7% 8% 5%
First Round3% 3% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Chicago St. (Away) - 50.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 30 - 7
Quad 411 - 1311 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 98 @DePaul L 64 - 72 5% -8  6% 0 - 1 C +0 F -10 D- C D+ A +11 A+ A F
 Tue, Nov 11 116 @Rhode Island L 57 - 80 7% -12  11% 0 - 2 F+ -17 F -15 F C- F C- -2 C B- F+
 Fri, Nov 14 262 @Fairfield L 71 - 73 OT 22% -2  20% 0 - 3 C- -5 F -14 F+ F B A- +10 A A F
 Sat, Nov 15 312 Loyola Maryland L 63 - 74 43% -3  12% 0 - 4 F -20 F -13 C- F F D- -8 F D+ F
 Mon, Nov 17 8 @Iowa St. L 57 - 96 0% -18  0% 0 - 5 F+ -15 D- -6 A- F F D- -9 D- A F
 Fri, Nov 21 319 Lafayette W 74 - 70 58% +4  73% 1 - 5 D -9 D- -7 B F F C- -2 C+ C+ C
 Wed, Nov 26 318 Umass Lowell L 64 - 75 57% -5  3% 1 - 6 F -24 F -16 F D- C D- -8 C C F
 Sun, Nov 30 195 @Quinnipiac L 62 - 76 14% -8  17% 1 - 7 D- -13 F -10 F A F C- -3 F A+ D
 Tue, Dec 2 342 @Bryant L 65 - 77 43% -4  33% 1 - 8 F -21 D -5 D+ D- D+ F -18 F F F
 Wed, Dec 17 327 @New Hampshire L 58 - 59 37% -1  23% 1 - 9 D -8 F -17 F+ F F A- +9 A B F
 Mon, Dec 22 67 @Syracuse L 48 - 77 3% -12  0% 1 - 10 F -18 F -16 F B F D+ -5 C C+ F
 Fri, Jan 2 334 New Haven L 55 - 70 63% -5  42% 1 - 11 0 - 1 F -29 F -21 F C- D D- -9 F+ D+ F
 Sun, Jan 4 331 @Wagner W 69 - 60 39% +2  53% 2 - 11 1 - 1 C +1 C- -2 D+ D C+ B- +4 B- C D
 Thu, Jan 8 294 @Central Connecticut St. L 69 - 76 28% -6  0% 2 - 12 1 - 2 D- -12 D- -6 C+ F F D -6 D- F B
 Sat, Jan 10 353 Chicago St. W 85 - 82 OT 72% +3  65% 3 - 12 2 - 2 D- -14 D+ -3 C+ C+ F+ F -11 D F F
 Sat, Jan 17 304 @Mercyhurst W 62 - 57 OT 29% -2  11% 4 - 12 3 - 2 C -0 F -14 D- D- D- A+ +14 B A+ D-
 Mon, Jan 19 355 @St. Francis (PA) L 61 - 63 52% +3  70% 4 - 13 3 - 3 D- -13 F -19 F F F B +5 A C- F
 Fri, Jan 23 207 LIU Brooklyn L 63 - 66 31% +3  66% 4 - 14 3 - 4 D -9 F+ -9 C- C F C -0 B+ A F
 Mon, Jan 26 294 Central Connecticut St. W 61 - 59 49% -3  8% 5 - 14 4 - 4 D -9 F -17 D- F F A- +8 D+ A- B
 Thu, Jan 29 329 Fairleigh Dickinson W 58 - 57 61% +1  51% 6 - 14 5 - 4 D- -13 F -15 F C+ C- C+ +2 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 31 303 @Le Moyne W 65 - 54 29% +5  87% 7 - 14 6 - 4 B- +6 F -14 F F A- A+ +20 A+ A+ D-
 Thu, Feb 5 329 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 58 - 74 38% -10  0% 7 - 15 6 - 5 F -24 F -16 F D+ D- F+ -10 D F F
 Sat, Feb 7 207 @LIU Brooklyn L 54 - 61 15% +1  55% 7 - 16 6 - 6 D+ -7 F -12 F D- D- B +4 D+ A+ C-
 Thu, Feb 12 353 @Chicago St. W 66 - 65 51%
 Sat, Feb 14 331 Wagner W 67 - 64 61%
 Thu, Feb 19 334 @New Haven L 58 - 61 40%
 Sat, Feb 21 303 Le Moyne W 68 - 67 51%
 Thu, Feb 26 355 St. Francis (PA) W 72 - 66 72%
 Sat, Feb 28 304 Mercyhurst W 62 - 61 51%
Totals 10 - 19 9 - 9 -11 F -11 F+ D F C +1 C B- F



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings F D- C- F+ F+ 39% 19% 42% C+ F+ D+ F+ D F F+ D+ F+ C B- B- D C+ 44% 22% 34% C- C B C- B- F C+ B B-
0.92 50% 36% 28% -7 0 0.88 28% 0.9 .24 21% .23 70% .16 1.08 55% 35% 36% -1 0 1.01 26% 1.1 .28 12% .28 69% .16
Nov
7		 DePaul F F A- C- D- 35% 25% 40% C D- F A+ C D+ F+ F F A D+ A+ A+ A+ 42% 17% 41% D A+ A+ D+ A F F A+ F
0.84 33% 46% 33% -7 -1 0.87 16% 1.7 .27 21% .25 60% .15 0.95 64% 10% 21% -10 +1 0.83 20% 1.3 .25 9% .51 60% .30
Nov
11		 Rhode Island F F F F F 28% 14% 58% C- F C D C- F A- C+ A- C- D F A+ C+ 55% 14% 31% F+ C B C+ B- F+ C- F D-
0.80 42% 17% 28% -13 0 0.77 32% 0.9 .29 29% .42 71% .30 1.12 64% 57% 19% -1 +2 1.04 30% 0.9 .27 15% .37 82% .30
Nov
14		 Fairfield F F+ F A F+ 49% 16% 35% C F+ F F F B F C- F A- A+ A+ B A 34% 20% 46% C A A+ F A F F D- F
0.92 48% 10% 41% -6 +1 0.94 13% 0.8 .10 13% .16 73% .12 0.94 40% 25% 30% -12 0 0.78 17% 1.1 .19 8% .34 75% .25
Nov
15		 Loyola Maryland F C A+ F D+ 46% 15% 38% B C- C- F F F F C+ F D- B- F F+ F+ 55% 7% 38% F F A- F D+ F A+ A+ A+
0.96 63% 63% 25% +1 +1 1.06 31% 0.8 .25 26% .08 75% .06 1.12 53% 75% 38% +3 +3 1.13 21% 1.4 .30 11% .14 38% .05
Nov
17		 Iowa St. D- A+ B A- A+ 14% 39% 47% F A- F+ F F F F F F D- F+ F C- F+ 42% 23% 36% B- D- A+ B- A F F B+ F
0.81 71% 40% 38% +5 -4 1.04 19% 0.5 .09 28% .04 50% .02 1.36 73% 67% 37% +14 0 1.30 30% 1.0 .30 10% .47 63% .30
Nov
21		 Lafayette D- B B+ C+ B 45% 22% 33% B- B C+ F F F C+ F D C- A- A D B- 54% 17% 29% D C+ F A+ C+ C F B- F
1.04 65% 45% 35% +6 0 1.14 34% 0.6 .20 21% .30 59% .18 0.98 46% 25% 36% -8 +2 0.90 38% 0.6 .21 17% .49 66% .32
Nov
26		 Umass Lowell F F F D- F 34% 20% 46% D F C- F D- C F B F D- D+ A B+ C+ 42% 13% 45% D- C C- C C F F A+ C+
0.93 37% 27% 31% -11 0 0.79 31% 0.9 .27 13% .15 78% .12 1.09 59% 29% 29% -4 +1 0.96 32% 1.0 .32 10% .41 48% .19
Nov
30		 Quinnipiac F F B F+ F 26% 26% 48% F F B A A F F F F C- D- A F F 51% 22% 27% D- F A A+ A+ D A F B
0.90 38% 38% 29% -8 -2 0.82 39% 1.2 .47 22% .15 50% .07 1.10 64% 25% 53% +8 +1 1.20 23% 0.7 .17 14% .20 83% .17
Dec
2		 Bryant D D B+ C- D 57% 14% 29% B D+ C- F D- D+ F A- F F F D B- F 43% 10% 47% D F F F F F D- A+ C+
1.05 52% 43% 33% -3 +2 1.00 33% 0.7 .24 15% .17 78% .13 1.25 67% 40% 30% +1 +2 1.08 35% 1.5 .52 15% .32 59% .19
Dec
17		 New Hampshire F B- F F F 49% 21% 30% C+ F+ C- F F F B A A- A- A+ A F A 47% 15% 38% D+ A B B B F D+ B C
0.85 62% 11% 23% -9 +1 0.86 30% 0.6 .18 31% .38 83% .32 0.86 24% 25% 40% -15 +1 0.75 22% 0.9 .20 13% .29 65% .19
Dec
22		 Syracuse F F F D F 32% 23% 45% D+ F C+ B B F A- F C+ D+ C- A+ F C+ 45% 14% 41% D C C- B C+ F F A+ D+
0.78 14% 10% 30% -23 -1 0.55 33% 1.2 .40 24% .36 65% .23 1.24 64% 0% 45% +4 +1 1.12 33% 0.9 .31 8% .51 48% .25
Jan
2		 New Haven F F F F F 55% 10% 35% A- F C- C C- D D- C- D D- C+ A F F 36% 23% 42% C F+ A F D+ F A B A-
0.83 44% 20% 24% -15 +3 0.78 26% 1.1 .29 18% .22 75% .17 1.06 58% 25% 45% +4 0 1.09 13% 1.8 .23 12% .16 67% .10
Jan
4		 Wagner C- F A A- D+ 47% 17% 36% C+ D+ C- F+ D C+ D+ F F+ B- A B+ F B 52% 24% 24% D+ B- C- C C D A F C+
1.13 45% 50% 41% 0 +1 1.04 29% 0.9 .26 13% .36 63% .23 0.98 42% 33% 42% -6 +1 0.90 32% 1.1 .35 16% .18 100% .18
Jan
8		 Central Connecticut St. D- D- A+ A- C 55% 6% 39% A C+ C F F F D- F F D D- D+ F F 28% 40% 33% A- D- B- F F B F F+ F
1.04 50% 67% 40% +1 +3 1.10 32% 0.5 .18 20% .21 64% .13 1.15 67% 41% 43% +8 -3 1.12 24% 1.8 .44 20% .45 83% .38
Jan
10		 Chicago St. D+ A F B- C+ 33% 10% 58% C C+ A F+ C+ F+ B- D- C F B+ C- F D 39% 35% 26% D+ D A+ F F F D F+ F+
1.16 76% 20% 37% +7 +1 1.17 46% 0.9 .43 23% .37 71% .27 1.12 45% 40% 40% -2 -2 0.95 15% 2.6 .39 8% .31 81% .25
Jan
17		 Mercyhurst F C F F F 53% 13% 33% B D- F B- D- D- A- F D+ A+ C- A A+ B 41% 43% 16% B- B D+ A+ A+ D- C A+ B
0.89 58% 0% 27% -9 +2 0.89 25% 1.1 .28 21% .44 54% .24 0.82 57% 29% 22% -7 -3 0.82 28% 0.3 .09 13% .21 54% .12
Jan
19		 St. Francis (PA) F D- F D+ F 50% 5% 45% A- F F F+ F F A B A+ B A A+ C A+ 45% 25% 29% D A B- F C- F F A F
0.90 55% 0% 33% -4 +3 1.00 25% 1.0 .25 31% .45 76% .34 0.93 43% 15% 33% -13 0 0.76 23% 1.2 .28 10% .46 61% .28
Jan
23		 LIU Brooklyn F+ C A+ F D 55% 9% 36% A C- C- C+ C F F F F C B+ B+ C B+ 31% 29% 40% A- B+ A+ F A F C D- C-
0.97 58% 50% 24% -5 +3 0.98 32% 1.1 .35 23% .20 60% .12 1.02 50% 33% 33% -4 -2 0.90 19% 1.1 .22 9% .29 71% .20
Jan
26		 Central Connecticut St. F A+ A F F+ 47% 9% 44% B D- D+ F F F A+ F A+ A- B C F C- 47% 31% 22% D- D+ A+ C A- B A+ A+ A+
0.93 71% 50% 15% -5 +2 0.96 29% 0.6 .17 20% .46 67% .30 0.90 54% 38% 45% +2 -1 1.04 17% 1.0 .17 20% .08 50% .04
Jan
29		 Fairleigh Dickinson F F A+ F F 40% 29% 31% D F B D+ C+ C- F B+ D- C+ A+ C A+ A 36% 34% 30% A A+ D F F F A+ F A+
0.97 44% 54% 21% -7 -1 0.87 32% 0.9 .29 17% .26 77% .20 0.95 42% 39% 19% -12 -2 0.74 34% 1.2 .42 12% .04 100% .04
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Le Moyne F F A+ F+ F 45% 13% 42% B F F F F A- D B D+ A+ A+ F+ A A+ 43% 19% 38% C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D- A+ A+ A+
0.91 32% 71% 30% -10 +2 0.85 23% 0.4 .09 11% .28 78% .22 0.76 36% 45% 27% -12 +1 0.79 14% 0.5 .07 17% .22 62% .13
Feb
5		 Fairleigh Dickinson F D D- F F 26% 35% 40% F F D- C+ D+ D- A+ F A- F+ D+ C C- D- 37% 27% 37% B D D F F F D F F
0.91 55% 33% 24% -9 -3 0.79 22% 1.0 .22 19% .50 62% .31 1.16 61% 38% 33% +1 -1 1.02 34% 1.3 .44 13% .31 82% .25
Feb
7		 LIU Brooklyn F D F F F 43% 17% 39% C F B- F D- D- D- A+ B- B B- D- F D+ 57% 28% 15% D+ D+ D+ A+ A+ C- A- F B-
0.88 50% 25% 22% -13 +1 0.78 36% 0.8 .27 21% .27 92% .25 1.00 54% 46% 43% +2 0 1.07 38% 0.4 .15 20% .22 73% .16



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 2.6 7.7 2.7 13.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.8 13.6 5.4 0.3 21.1 3rd
4th 0.5 12.2 9.3 0.3 22.3 4th
5th 0.1 4.5 12.5 0.7 17.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 9.9 3.2 0.0 14.6 6th
7th 0.2 4.4 4.1 0.1 8.8 7th
8th 0.6 1.4 0.1 2.1 8th
9th 0.3 0.1 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 1.1 7.3 19.2 30.0 26.1 13.3 3.1 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 1.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-5 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 3.1% 11.7% 11.7% 16.0 0.4 2.7
11-5 13.3% 8.9% 8.9% 16.0 1.2 12.1
10-6 26.1% 8.6% 8.6% 16.0 2.3 23.9
9-7 30.0% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 1.9 28.1
8-8 19.2% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.7 18.4
7-9 7.3% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.2 7.1
6-10 1.1% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 1.1
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 16.0 93.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0%
Lose Out 0.6%