Stonehill
Northeast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.1#322
Expected Predictive Rating-6.3#277
Pace65.1#275
Improvement+1.6#79

Offense
Total Offense-5.0#314
First Shot-2.1#235
After Offensive Rebound-3.0#329
Layup/Dunks-5.9#344
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#205
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.0#25
Freethrows-1.5#267
Improvement+3.1#16

Defense
Total Defense-4.1#305
First Shot-2.9#278
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#277
Layups/Dunks-1.8#241
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#250
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#150
Freethrows-1.5#283
Improvement-1.5#297
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.5% 11.4% 8.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 42.3% 48.3% 25.3%
.500 or above in Conference 67.9% 70.3% 61.1%
Conference Champion 11.6% 12.8% 8.4%
Last Place in Conference 6.4% 5.4% 9.1%
First Four9.5% 10.0% 7.8%
First Round5.0% 5.5% 3.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Hampshire (Home) - 74.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 30 - 7
Quad 414 - 915 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 82   @ Notre Dame L 60-89 5%     0 - 1 -19.2 -6.6 -13.5
  Nov 09, 2024 77   @ Providence L 49-76 5%     0 - 2 -16.8 -19.1 +3.2
  Nov 14, 2024 258   @ Robert Morris L 51-63 26%     0 - 3 -14.3 -18.9 +4.3
  Nov 15, 2024 345   New Orleans W 80-54 61%     1 - 3 +14.1 +0.2 +13.5
  Nov 17, 2024 351   Lindenwood L 74-75 63%     1 - 4 -13.4 -1.0 -12.5
  Nov 21, 2024 172   Bryant W 67-66 30%     2 - 4 -2.8 -6.8 +4.0
  Nov 25, 2024 353   Texas A&M - Commerce W 67-65 73%     3 - 4 -13.6 -2.8 -10.5
  Nov 27, 2024 17   @ Marquette L 59-94 1%     3 - 5 -16.9 -4.1 -13.7
  Dec 01, 2024 248   Quinnipiac W 88-74 45%     4 - 5 +6.2 +17.4 -10.5
  Dec 15, 2024 154   @ Boston College L 69-73 13%     4 - 6 -0.8 +7.3 -8.6
  Dec 18, 2024 152   @ Umass Lowell L 67-78 13%     4 - 7 -7.7 -3.4 -4.7
  Dec 22, 2024 356   New Hampshire W 71-64 74%    
  Dec 29, 2024 247   @ Lafayette L 63-70 25%    
  Jan 03, 2025 358   @ Mercyhurst W 67-65 57%    
  Jan 05, 2025 336   @ St. Francis (PA) L 70-71 46%    
  Jan 10, 2025 342   LIU Brooklyn W 71-66 69%    
  Jan 12, 2025 360   @ Chicago St. W 70-68 57%    
  Jan 20, 2025 332   @ Le Moyne L 69-71 43%    
  Jan 24, 2025 360   Chicago St. W 73-65 77%    
  Jan 26, 2025 333   Fairleigh Dickinson W 78-74 65%    
  Jan 30, 2025 308   Wagner W 60-58 58%    
  Feb 01, 2025 223   Central Connecticut St. L 63-66 39%    
  Feb 08, 2025 342   @ LIU Brooklyn L 68-69 47%    
  Feb 13, 2025 336   St. Francis (PA) W 73-68 67%    
  Feb 15, 2025 358   Mercyhurst W 70-62 77%    
  Feb 20, 2025 308   @ Wagner L 57-61 36%    
  Feb 22, 2025 223   @ Central Connecticut St. L 60-69 21%    
  Feb 27, 2025 333   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 75-77 44%    
  Mar 01, 2025 332   Le Moyne W 72-68 64%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.4 3.5 3.1 1.5 0.4 0.1 11.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 5.9 6.3 3.2 0.8 0.1 18.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.8 7.1 6.2 1.8 0.2 0.0 17.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 6.5 5.7 1.1 0.0 14.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 5.1 5.6 0.9 0.0 12.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.5 5.0 1.0 0.0 9.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.8 1.1 0.0 7.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.5 0.9 0.0 5.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.3 0.5 0.0 3.3 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.1 5.6 9.0 12.5 15.0 15.6 13.9 10.6 6.8 4.0 1.6 0.4 0.1 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
14-2 95.2% 1.5    1.4 0.2
13-3 78.9% 3.1    2.3 0.8 0.1
12-4 51.1% 3.5    1.7 1.5 0.3 0.0
11-5 22.5% 2.4    0.6 1.2 0.6 0.1
10-6 4.3% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 11.6% 11.6 6.4 3.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 41.7% 41.7% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.4% 29.7% 29.7% 15.5 0.1 0.1 0.3
14-2 1.6% 30.5% 30.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1
13-3 4.0% 24.5% 24.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.0
12-4 6.8% 20.6% 20.6% 16.0 0.0 1.4 5.4
11-5 10.6% 16.6% 16.6% 16.0 0.0 1.8 8.8
10-6 13.9% 13.3% 13.3% 16.0 0.0 1.8 12.0
9-7 15.6% 9.8% 9.8% 16.0 1.5 14.1
8-8 15.0% 7.3% 7.3% 16.0 1.1 13.9
7-9 12.5% 6.0% 6.0% 16.0 0.7 11.7
6-10 9.0% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.4 8.7
5-11 5.6% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.1 5.5
4-12 3.1% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 3.1
3-13 1.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.3
2-14 0.4% 0.4
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 10.5% 10.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 10.2 89.5 0.0%