Umass Lowell
America East
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -8.5 #309
Expected Predictive Rating -9.8 #322
Pace 72.3 #90
Improvement +0.6 #149

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #287 C- C F D C
Defense #302 D D F C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #78 1.05 #302 +0.0 #177
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #121 0.79 #126 +1.4 #103
Three Pointers 34% #312 1.02 #184 -3.4 #299
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #237 -2.0 #236
Freethrows 17.2 #198 63% #362 10.9 #286
Second Chance 30.2% #197 1.06 #158 0.32 #174
Turnovers 20.3% #352
Total Offense -4.2 #287

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #22 1.18 #217 -4.8 #329
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #175 0.85 #311 -0.9 #258
Three Pointers 34% #348 1.13 #319 +1.9 #119
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #302 -3.9 #303
Freethrows 16.2 #129 73% #175 11.8 #138
Second Chance 33.6% #298 1.10 #264 0.37 #302
Turnovers 13.3% #337
Total Defense -4.3 #302

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.1% #204 1.1% #268
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.7% #232 6.5% #302
Possession Length 17.6 #202 15.9 #19
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #216 0.19 #252
Improvement -1.6 #278 +2.2 #57

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.4% 12.8% 9.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 5.6% 12.3% 2.7%
.500 or above in Conference 71.6% 88.2% 64.1%
Conference Champion 5.2% 11.0% 2.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.3% 1.5%
First Four9.6% 11.1% 8.9%
First Round5.5% 7.4% 4.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maryland Baltimore Co. (Away) - 31.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 50 - 9
Quad 411 - 911 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 7 @Connecticut L 47 - 110 1% -42  0 - 1 -40 -16 F D+ F -20 F F F
 Mon, Nov 10 331 New Haven L 67 - 73 69% +1  0 - 2 -20 -8 F A+ D+ -11 F F C
 Thu, Nov 13 180 @Columbia L 72 - 86 17% -1  0 - 3 -12 -0 B- D F -12 F F A
 Sun, Nov 16 63 @Wake Forest L 75 - 109 4% -15  0 - 4 -22 +3 B+ D- B- -22 F F F
 Wed, Nov 19 119 @Bradley L 77 - 87 10% +0  0 - 5 -4 +10 C C C+ -15 F F C+
 Sat, Nov 22 220 @St. Peter's L 66 - 68 22% -2  0 - 6 -3 -6 A+ D F +3 A+ F C
 Wed, Nov 26 339 @Stonehill W 75 - 64 49% +5  1 - 6 +3 +4 D+ C+ C+ -1 A C- F
 Sat, Dec 6 176 @Massachusetts L 60 - 80 17% -8  1 - 7 -18 -16 F D+ F -1 C- B+ D+
 Sat, Dec 13 175 @Quinnipiac L 71 - 75 17% +1  1 - 8 -2 -4 A+ F F +2 B F D-
 Tue, Dec 16 270 Sacred Heart W 87 - 82 52% -0  2 - 8 -4 +3 C C- B -8 F B- C-
 Sun, Dec 21 285 @Boston University L 76 - 88 33% -9  2 - 9 -16 +3 B- B- F -20 F F D+
 Mon, Dec 29 23 @Iowa L 62 - 90 1% -19  2 - 10 -9 +3 B+ C F -14 D B- F
 Sat, Jan 3 305 Albany W 83 - 71 60% +10  3 - 10 1 - 0 +1 +8 C- A+ C -7 B- F F
 Thu, Jan 8 343 @Bryant W 77 - 63 51% +6  4 - 10 2 - 0 +5 +8 B A F -2 C- C F
 Sat, Jan 10 362 @Binghamton W 73 - 68 66% +6  5 - 10 3 - 0 -8 -4 D D- F -4 D B- D
 Thu, Jan 15 336 NJIT L 64 - 73 71% -10  5 - 11 3 - 1 -23 -14 F D- F -9 D+ A+ F
 Thu, Jan 22 204 Vermont L 68 - 77 40% -5  5 - 12 3 - 2 -15 -7 F A F -9 D- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 275 @Maryland Baltimore Co. L 74 - 79 31%
 Thu, Jan 29 323 @New Hampshire L 72 - 74 45%
 Sat, Jan 31 341 @Maine W 67 - 66 50%
 Thu, Feb 5 336 @NJIT L 74 - 75 49%
 Sat, Feb 7 305 @Albany L 73 - 76 38%
 Thu, Feb 12 343 Bryant W 74 - 68 71%
 Thu, Feb 19 323 New Hampshire W 75 - 71 66%
 Sat, Feb 21 362 Binghamton W 77 - 67 83%
 Thu, Feb 26 204 @Vermont L 69 - 78 21%
 Sat, Feb 28 275 Maryland Baltimore Co. W 77 - 76 53%
 Tue, Mar 3 341 @Maine W 67 - 66 49%
Totals 11 - 17 9 - 7 -8 -4 C- C F -4 D D F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.5 1.7 2.1 0.8 0.2 5.2 1st
2nd 0.0 1.6 7.3 6.3 2.0 0.2 17.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 9.1 7.6 1.4 0.0 19.6 3rd
4th 0.9 8.6 8.2 1.2 0.0 18.9 4th
5th 0.3 4.9 8.3 1.3 0.0 14.7 5th
6th 0.1 2.2 6.9 1.9 0.0 11.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 4.8 2.3 0.1 8.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 2.2 1.6 0.1 4.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
Total 0.1 0.9 3.5 8.9 15.1 20.3 20.2 16.6 9.4 4.1 1.0 0.2 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
13-3 82.1% 0.8    0.6 0.2
12-4 50.9% 2.1    1.1 0.9 0.1
11-5 18.1% 1.7    0.4 0.8 0.4 0.0
10-6 2.7% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 5.2% 5.2 2.2 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 0.2% 48.4% 48.4% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
13-3 1.0% 25.6% 25.6% 15.9 0.0 0.2 0.7
12-4 4.1% 22.0% 22.0% 16.0 0.0 0.9 3.2
11-5 9.4% 17.6% 17.6% 16.0 0.0 1.6 7.7
10-6 16.6% 13.7% 13.7% 16.0 2.3 14.3
9-7 20.2% 10.0% 10.0% 16.0 2.0 18.2
8-8 20.3% 8.7% 8.7% 16.0 1.8 18.5
7-9 15.1% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 0.9 14.2
6-10 8.9% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.4 8.5
5-11 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.1 3.4
4-12 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.9
3-13 0.1% 0.1
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 10.4% 10.4% 0.0% 16.0 89.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%