Umass Lowell
America East
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.4#147
Expected Predictive Rating+2.0#139
Pace74.6#54
Improvement+0.7#133

Offense
Total Offense+2.1#119
First Shot+4.8#58
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#322
Layup/Dunks+4.3#47
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#137
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#288
Freethrows+3.5#29
Improvement+0.0#174

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#223
First Shot-1.3#216
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#220
Layups/Dunks-4.9#339
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#122
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#131
Freethrows+1.3#88
Improvement+0.7#130
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.7% 28.8% 23.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.1 14.5
.500 or above 97.5% 98.6% 93.4%
.500 or above in Conference 94.1% 94.9% 91.0%
Conference Champion 39.4% 41.5% 31.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 1.1%
First Round27.5% 28.7% 23.0%
Second Round1.9% 2.0% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Boston University (Home) - 79.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 33 - 43 - 6
Quad 417 - 320 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 210   St. Peter's W 81-74 71%     1 - 0 +1.7 +7.3 -5.6
  Nov 15, 2024 4   @ Gonzaga L 54-113 3%     1 - 1 -35.9 -18.2 -8.7
  Nov 17, 2024 82   @ Washington L 69-74 19%     1 - 2 +4.8 +1.9 +2.9
  Nov 23, 2024 245   Quinnipiac W 80-70 78%     2 - 2 +2.2 +2.1 -0.2
  Nov 25, 2024 198   Merrimack W 81-74 69%     3 - 2 +2.4 +4.4 -2.4
  Nov 27, 2024 143   @ Saint Louis L 90-93 37%     3 - 3 +0.8 +19.2 -18.5
  Dec 01, 2024 221   @ Central Connecticut St. L 67-69 52%     3 - 4 -2.0 -3.3 +1.3
  Dec 07, 2024 191   @ Massachusetts W 96-83 45%     4 - 4 +14.7 +9.9 +2.8
  Dec 11, 2024 340   LIU Brooklyn W 69-62 91%     5 - 4 -7.4 -10.6 +3.1
  Dec 14, 2024 312   Dartmouth W 92-83 86%     6 - 4 -2.4 +13.4 -15.9
  Dec 18, 2024 322   Stonehill W 78-67 88%     7 - 4 -1.1 +2.6 -3.3
  Dec 21, 2024 256   Boston University W 77-68 79%    
  Jan 04, 2025 236   @ Albany W 81-80 55%    
  Jan 09, 2025 184   Vermont W 71-66 66%    
  Jan 11, 2025 352   NJIT W 80-64 93%    
  Jan 18, 2025 178   @ Bryant L 84-86 44%    
  Jan 23, 2025 212   Maine W 76-70 71%    
  Jan 25, 2025 356   New Hampshire W 83-67 93%    
  Jan 30, 2025 352   @ NJIT W 77-67 82%    
  Feb 01, 2025 249   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 87-85 59%    
  Feb 06, 2025 314   @ Binghamton W 77-71 71%    
  Feb 13, 2025 236   Albany W 84-77 75%    
  Feb 15, 2025 356   @ New Hampshire W 80-70 82%    
  Feb 20, 2025 249   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 90-82 77%    
  Feb 22, 2025 184   @ Vermont L 68-69 45%    
  Feb 27, 2025 178   Bryant W 87-83 65%    
  Mar 01, 2025 314   Binghamton W 80-68 86%    
  Mar 04, 2025 212   @ Maine L 73-74 50%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 3.2 9.1 12.1 9.3 4.4 0.9 39.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.6 9.2 7.3 2.2 0.2 22.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.9 7.1 4.4 0.7 0.0 15.3 3rd
4th 0.2 1.8 5.1 2.9 0.3 10.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.2 1.9 0.2 6.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 1.7 1.1 0.1 3.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.5 6.4 10.2 14.1 17.2 17.1 14.4 9.5 4.4 0.9 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
15-1 100.0% 4.4    4.3 0.0
14-2 98.1% 9.3    8.4 0.8
13-3 84.2% 12.1    8.7 3.1 0.3
12-4 53.6% 9.1    3.9 4.2 0.9 0.1
11-5 18.9% 3.2    0.6 1.4 1.0 0.3 0.0
10-6 2.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 39.4% 39.4 26.9 9.7 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.9% 59.9% 59.9% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4
15-1 4.4% 50.0% 50.0% 12.9 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.2
14-2 9.5% 45.9% 45.9% 13.4 0.0 0.3 2.1 1.7 0.2 5.1
13-3 14.4% 37.4% 37.4% 13.8 0.1 1.5 2.9 0.8 0.0 9.0
12-4 17.1% 30.8% 30.8% 14.3 0.0 0.7 2.5 1.9 0.1 11.8
11-5 17.2% 24.5% 24.5% 14.7 0.2 1.4 2.3 0.3 13.0
10-6 14.1% 20.3% 20.3% 15.0 0.0 0.5 1.7 0.5 11.3
9-7 10.2% 16.1% 16.1% 15.2 0.2 0.9 0.6 8.6
8-8 6.4% 12.9% 12.9% 15.4 0.0 0.4 0.4 5.5
7-9 3.5% 9.2% 9.2% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.2
6-10 1.5% 8.2% 8.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.4
5-11 0.6% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-12 0.2% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-13 0.1% 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 27.7% 27.7% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.2 1.4 5.7 9.8 8.4 2.3 72.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 11.9 0.4 23.9 65.2 10.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%