Umass Lowell
America East
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.1#203
Expected Predictive Rating-1.5#191
Pace72.9#69
Improvement-4.7#339

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#125
First Shot+4.0#72
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#306
Layup/Dunks+3.6#61
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#122
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#263
Freethrows+2.2#61
Improvement-2.8#321

Defense
Total Defense-3.9#289
First Shot-3.1#277
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#254
Layups/Dunks-6.2#357
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#120
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#133
Freethrows+1.0#112
Improvement-1.9#283
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.5% 17.8% 14.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.6
.500 or above 97.6% 99.5% 94.3%
.500 or above in Conference 86.3% 93.7% 73.6%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.0% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four2.7% 2.2% 3.5%
First Round15.3% 17.0% 12.4%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Binghamton (Away) - 63.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 33 - 7
Quad 415 - 518 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 272   St. Peter's W 81-74 74%     1 - 0 -1.7 +8.2 -9.9
  Nov 15, 2024 11   @ Gonzaga L 54-113 3%     1 - 1 -38.8 -20.2 -9.6
  Nov 17, 2024 89   @ Washington L 69-74 16%     1 - 2 +3.7 +1.5 +2.2
  Nov 23, 2024 187   Quinnipiac W 80-70 57%     2 - 2 +6.2 +5.1 +0.8
  Nov 25, 2024 198   Merrimack W 81-74 58%     3 - 2 +2.8 +6.1 -3.6
  Nov 27, 2024 105   @ Saint Louis L 90-93 20%     3 - 3 +3.8 +24.6 -20.9
  Dec 01, 2024 209   @ Central Connecticut St. L 67-69 42%     3 - 4 -2.0 -3.1 +1.1
  Dec 07, 2024 152   @ Massachusetts W 96-83 31%     4 - 4 +16.2 +11.8 +2.4
  Dec 11, 2024 327   LIU Brooklyn W 69-62 84%     5 - 4 -5.7 -7.6 +1.7
  Dec 14, 2024 257   Dartmouth W 92-83 72%     6 - 4 +1.0 +15.0 -14.1
  Dec 18, 2024 321   Stonehill W 78-67 83%     7 - 4 -1.2 +2.2 -3.0
  Dec 21, 2024 294   Boston University W 83-71 77%     8 - 4 +2.2 +16.1 -12.6
  Jan 04, 2025 280   @ Albany W 73-69 58%     9 - 4 1 - 0 -0.1 +1.9 -1.8
  Jan 09, 2025 240   Vermont L 63-67 69%     9 - 5 1 - 1 -11.1 -5.9 -5.4
  Jan 11, 2025 344   NJIT W 70-62 87%     10 - 5 2 - 1 -6.3 -0.2 -5.4
  Jan 18, 2025 144   @ Bryant L 62-85 29%     10 - 6 2 - 2 -19.3 -14.8 -2.7
  Jan 23, 2025 199   Maine L 85-86 OT 58%     10 - 7 2 - 3 -5.2 +7.5 -12.6
  Jan 25, 2025 357   New Hampshire W 97-80 90%     11 - 7 3 - 3 +0.7 +18.4 -17.7
  Jan 30, 2025 344   @ NJIT L 62-83 76%     11 - 8 3 - 4 -30.3 -6.2 -26.1
  Feb 01, 2025 261   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 83-67 54%     12 - 8 4 - 4 +12.8 +6.0 +7.0
  Feb 06, 2025 313   @ Binghamton W 78-74 63%    
  Feb 13, 2025 280   Albany W 82-75 77%    
  Feb 15, 2025 357   @ New Hampshire W 80-71 79%    
  Feb 20, 2025 261   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 88-82 73%    
  Feb 22, 2025 240   @ Vermont W 69-68 48%    
  Feb 27, 2025 144   Bryant L 85-86 50%    
  Mar 01, 2025 313   Binghamton W 80-71 81%    
  Mar 04, 2025 199   @ Maine L 71-74 37%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.9 7.3 2.4 15.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.7 13.3 16.3 5.6 0.2 38.1 3rd
4th 0.0 2.0 12.3 11.8 3.1 0.1 29.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.9 4.4 0.4 10.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 2.6 0.2 4.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.2 1.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.1 0.7 3.1 9.8 19.7 26.1 24.3 13.1 3.1 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 14.9% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2
11-5 1.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 3.1% 30.4% 30.4% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 2.2
11-5 13.1% 22.9% 22.9% 15.0 0.0 0.5 2.1 0.5 10.1
10-6 24.3% 20.7% 20.7% 15.4 0.2 2.5 2.3 19.3
9-7 26.1% 15.3% 15.3% 15.7 0.1 1.2 2.7 22.1
8-8 19.7% 12.2% 12.2% 15.8 0.0 0.5 1.9 17.3
7-9 9.8% 8.6% 8.6% 15.9 0.1 0.8 9.0
6-10 3.1% 7.0% 7.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2 2.9
5-11 0.7% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-12 0.1% 0.1
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 16.5% 16.5% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.2 1.4 6.5 8.4 83.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 13.9 2.1 19.1 62.8 16.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9%