Umass Lowell
America East
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.8 318
Expected Predictive Rating -10.1 322
Pace 72.6 75
Improvement -1.2 241

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D #302 D+ C F+ D+ C
Defense D #313 D D+ F+ C+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 63 52% 314 +0.2 170
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 131 41% 79 +1.6 94
Three Pointers 34% 319 32% 252 -4.5 324
1st FG Attempt 0.96 261 -2.7 261
Second Chance 31.0% 164 1.01 200 0.31 170
Turnovers 20.6% 346
Freethrows 0.31 166 64% 361 0.20 254
Total Offense -4.9 302

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% 8 61% 255 -6.2 353
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 211 40% 242 +0.1 177
Three Pointers 34% 350 37% 304 +2.4 84
1st FG Attempt 1.09 295 -3.6 295
Second Chance 31.6% 231 1.12 309 0.35 289
Turnovers 12.9% 352
Freethrows 0.28 104 74% 302 0.21 141
Total Defense -4.9 313

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.1 186 +0.8 305
Shot Type Accuracy -2.7 274 +2.8 286
Possession Length 17.6 209 15.8 11
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 194 0.22 319
Improvement -1.9 #292 +0.7 #138

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8% 8% 6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 74% 85% 49%
Conference Champion 1% 1% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 1%
First Four7% 8% 6%
First Round4% 4% 3%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Bryant (Home) - 69.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 50 - 9
Quad 411 - 1011 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 7 @Connecticut L 47 - 110 1% -42  0% 0 - 1 F -39 F -19 F D+ F F -16 F F D-
 Mon, Nov 10 334 New Haven L 67 - 73 67% +1  54% 0 - 2 F -20 F -11 F A+ D+ F+ -9 F+ F C+
 Thu, Nov 13 200 @Columbia L 72 - 86 17% -1  57% 0 - 3 D- -14 D+ -3 B- F+ F F+ -10 D- F+ B
 Sun, Nov 16 63 @Wake Forest L 75 - 109 3% -15  1% 0 - 4 F -23 C- -1 B- D- C+ F -19 F+ F F
 Wed, Nov 19 120 @Bradley L 77 - 87 8% +0  46% 0 - 5 C- -4 B +7 B- D C F -12 F F C
 Sat, Nov 22 228 @St. Peter's L 66 - 68 19% -2  22% 0 - 6 C- -3 F+ -9 A- D F B+ +6 A- F C-
 Wed, Nov 26 330 @Stonehill W 75 - 64 43% +5  91% 1 - 6 C+ +3 C+ +3 C- C+ B- C +0 B C- F
 Sat, Dec 6 183 @Massachusetts L 60 - 80 15% -8  11% 1 - 7 F -18 F -20 F+ D F B- +3 C- A D+
 Sat, Dec 13 195 @Quinnipiac L 71 - 75 16% +1  58% 1 - 8 C- -3 D- -7 A- F F B- +4 B F+ F+
 Tue, Dec 16 287 Sacred Heart W 87 - 82 52% -0  46% 2 - 8 D+ -5 C -0 C D+ B D -5 F C+ C
 Sun, Dec 21 275 @Boston University L 76 - 88 27% -9  0% 2 - 9 F+ -15 C +1 B- B- F F -17 F F D+
 Mon, Dec 29 25 @Iowa L 62 - 90 1% -19  0% 2 - 10 D -9 C- -1 B C- D+ F+ -10 D C+ F+
 Sat, Jan 3 325 Albany W 83 - 71 63% +10  88% 3 - 10 1 - 0 C -1 B- +4 D A+ B- D+ -5 C+ F D-
 Thu, Jan 8 342 @Bryant W 77 - 63 47% +6  86% 4 - 10 2 - 0 B- +5 B- +5 B- A F+ C+ +1 D+ C+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 361 @Binghamton W 73 - 68 65% +6  92% 5 - 10 3 - 0 D -9 D- -8 D D F C -1 D B- D+
 Thu, Jan 15 315 NJIT L 64 - 73 59% -10  2% 5 - 11 3 - 1 F -21 F -16 F D- D- D -6 C- A F
 Thu, Jan 22 224 Vermont L 68 - 77 37% -5  13% 5 - 12 3 - 2 F+ -15 F+ -9 F A- F D -7 D- A F
 Sat, Jan 24 259 @Maryland Baltimore Co. L 56 - 79 25% -12  0% 5 - 13 3 - 3 F -26 F -18 F F C- D- -9 D D D
 Thu, Jan 29 327 @New Hampshire L 61 - 66 41% -3  12% 5 - 14 3 - 4 D- -12 F -15 F C- C- B- +3 B- C+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 338 Maine W 91 - 77 68% +11  88% 6 - 14 4 - 4 C -1 A +11 A A+ F F -12 F A+ F
 Thu, Feb 5 315 @NJIT L 56 - 81 36% -19  3% 6 - 15 4 - 5 F -31 F -19 F D F F -13 F F F
 Sat, Feb 7 325 @Albany W 89 - 79 40% +5  74% 7 - 15 5 - 5 C+ +3 A- +10 B+ A+ D D- -7 C- F F
 Thu, Feb 12 342 Bryant W 74 - 69 70%
 Thu, Feb 19 327 New Hampshire W 76 - 72 64%
 Sat, Feb 21 361 Binghamton W 78 - 68 82%
 Thu, Feb 26 224 @Vermont L 69 - 78 19%
 Sat, Feb 28 259 Maryland Baltimore Co. L 74 - 75 46%
 Tue, Mar 3 338 @Maine L 69 - 70 47%
Totals 10 - 18 8 - 8 -10 D -5 D+ C F+ D -5 D D+ F+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D B- D+ D+ 43% 23% 34% C D+ C C- C F+ C F D+ D D+ C- D D+ 47% 19% 34% D D C- D D+ F+ B- D C+
1.02 52% 41% 32% -3 0 0.96 31% 1.0 .31 21% .31 64% .20 1.16 61% 40% 37% +3 +1 1.09 32% 1.1 .35 13% .28 74% .23
Nov
7		 Connecticut F F F C- F 43% 26% 31% C F D C- D+ F A+ C A+ F F F D- F 61% 7% 32% F F F B- F D- D+ F+ D-
0.63 22% 0% 31% -27 0 0.48 21% 0.9 .18 28% .59 72% .43 1.47 74% 75% 39% +15 +3 1.39 52% 1.1 .55 13% .34 77% .26
Nov
10		 New Haven F F B F F 35% 15% 50% C F B A+ A+ D+ A+ B- A+ F+ C D F F 45% 24% 31% D+ F+ F F F C+ D+ B D+
0.98 29% 43% 25% -16 +1 0.71 33% 1.5 .51 18% .48 78% .37 1.07 59% 42% 40% +4 0 1.10 30% 1.1 .33 20% .28 67% .18
Nov
13		 Columbia D+ D+ F A+ B- 55% 22% 24% B- B- C- F F+ F D- F F F+ B+ F F D 57% 14% 29% F+ D- F A F+ B F B F
1.04 53% 25% 54% +2 +1 1.07 29% 0.6 .17 20% .25 64% .16 1.24 50% 57% 50% +5 +2 1.16 61% 0.7 .42 24% .50 69% .34
Nov
16		 Wake Forest C- C A+ D- C+ 45% 15% 40% B B- D D- D- C+ C- D+ C- F D+ F D- F+ 41% 14% 45% D F+ C F F F D F+ F+
0.99 58% 50% 29% -1 +1 1.02 25% 0.9 .22 20% .30 72% .21 1.43 63% 63% 38% +8 +1 1.21 32% 2.0 .65 9% .35 83% .29
Nov
19		 Bradley B A+ A- C- A- 21% 47% 32% F B- C F D C A+ A+ A+ F F A+ F F 30% 36% 34% A+ F F F F C F B- F
1.14 80% 45% 33% +8 -5 1.09 31% 0.8 .24 19% .48 85% .40 1.29 79% 18% 56% +10 -3 1.17 39% 1.3 .48 15% .45 73% .33
Nov
22		 St. Peter's F+ A+ B+ F A- 58% 18% 24% B A- B F D F A+ F B B+ A+ D A+ A+ 35% 13% 53% D- A- A- F F C- A+ C A+
0.93 73% 43% 22% +5 +2 1.16 41% 0.8 .31 34% .61 55% .34 0.95 37% 43% 24% -14 +1 0.75 29% 1.6 .45 17% .20 75% .15
Nov
26		 Stonehill C+ C+ F+ F+ D+ 42% 13% 45% B C- B D+ C+ B- A+ F C C A+ A C+ B+ 34% 20% 46% C+ B D+ C C- F A F B
1.09 59% 29% 29% -4 +1 0.96 32% 1.0 .32 10% .41 48% .19 0.93 37% 27% 31% -11 0 0.79 31% 0.9 .27 13% .15 78% .12
Dec
6		 Massachusetts F F A+ F F 57% 20% 24% B F+ D C- D F A+ F D B- C+ F+ B C- 50% 28% 22% C C- D+ A+ A D+ A- D B
0.78 46% 67% 18% -7 +1 0.91 24% 1.0 .24 26% .48 48% .23 1.05 57% 47% 31% +1 0 1.03 34% 0.8 .26 17% .27 71% .19
Dec
13		 Quinnipiac D- D- B- A+ A- 50% 15% 35% B A- F F F F D- F F B- D- A- A+ B 43% 29% 27% C+ B D+ F+ F+ F+ F B+ F
0.95 50% 38% 56% +7 +2 1.19 22% 0.5 .11 25% .23 54% .13 1.00 64% 27% 21% -6 -1 0.88 34% 1.2 .42 13% .45 66% .29
Dec
16		 Sacred Heart C F A+ A+ C- 46% 11% 44% B C B- F D+ B D+ F F+ D C- F F F 22% 24% 55% A- F B D- C+ C A B A
1.19 46% 67% 44% +4 +2 1.14 36% 0.9 .31 12% .25 56% .14 1.12 58% 54% 43% +12 -2 1.22 22% 1.1 .25 19% .19 73% .13
Dec
21		 Boston University C C A+ B- B- 47% 19% 34% B- B- C A- B- F A F C- F F F F F 47% 20% 33% C- F D- F F D+ F+ C D-
1.16 59% 67% 38% +8 +1 1.19 30% 1.3 .37 17% .39 52% .20 1.35 76% 67% 47% +21 +1 1.44 30% 1.8 .55 17% .37 70% .26
Dec
29		 Iowa C- B- F A- B- 50% 20% 30% B B B- F+ C- D+ B+ F D- F+ F+ F B- D+ 60% 15% 25% F D C B- C+ F+ F+ F F
0.95 64% 22% 38% +2 +1 1.07 30% 0.8 .23 24% .36 50% .18 1.37 72% 57% 33% +11 +2 1.29 33% 1.0 .33 11% .41 92% .38
Jan
3		 Albany B- C- C- D- D 53% 22% 25% C+ D A+ B- A+ B- C- D- D D+ C+ A+ B B 54% 15% 31% F C+ C- F F D- C B C+
1.24 56% 36% 31% -3 +1 0.98 50% 1.3 .64 13% .29 71% .21 1.06 55% 25% 29% -6 +2 0.94 31% 1.3 .40 16% .23 62% .14
Jan
8		 Bryant B- A- B- C- B 50% 26% 24% D B- C+ A+ A F+ C+ C- C+ C+ B- D C D 31% 20% 49% B+ D+ B- C C+ F A+ A A+
1.19 68% 38% 33% +5 0 1.12 36% 1.3 .46 17% .32 71% .22 0.97 50% 40% 32% -4 0 0.94 24% 1.0 .24 14% .16 67% .11
Jan
10		 Binghamton D- F B A+ D 40% 24% 36% D D F A+ D F A+ D A+ C C A+ D D+ 57% 16% 27% F D C B+ B- D+ B- A B+
1.06 44% 45% 44% +2 0 1.04 19% 1.5 .28 16% .52 67% .34 0.98 55% 25% 36% -3 +2 1.00 19% 0.7 .13 19% .34 68% .23
Jan
15		 NJIT F F C- F F 47% 24% 29% C F D+ D- D- D- A- C A- D B+ F B+ C 44% 17% 39% F C- B+ A+ A F F+ F F
0.91 46% 33% 27% -10 0 0.82 30% 0.9 .28 17% .43 72% .31 1.04 46% 56% 29% -6 +1 0.93 22% 0.6 .12 10% .38 79% .30
Jan
22		 Vermont F+ F+ F C+ F+ 23% 35% 42% F F B- A A- F D- A- D+ D C+ F D- D- 46% 18% 37% D D- C A+ A F A+ F A+
1.01 50% 28% 36% -4 -3 0.88 31% 1.3 .38 21% .28 80% .22 1.14 58% 60% 38% +6 +1 1.16 24% 0.5 .12 10% .13 88% .12
Jan
24		 Maryland Baltimore Co. F F A+ F F 40% 19% 42% C F D+ F F C- F+ C- D- D- D+ C+ C D+ 50% 21% 29% D- D C- F+ D D F+ F F
0.84 43% 70% 18% -10 0 0.83 26% 0.7 .18 14% .16 67% .10 1.19 62% 36% 33% +1 +1 1.06 22% 1.2 .26 14% .35 95% .33
Jan
29		 New Hampshire F F A F F 47% 31% 22% D F D B C- C- F F F B- C- A+ A B 51% 13% 36% D- B- A- F+ C+ F D+ C- D+
0.88 46% 47% 17% -8 -1 0.84 26% 1.1 .29 16% .22 62% .14 0.95 56% 0% 26% -10 +2 0.85 20% 1.1 .22 14% .29 71% .20
Jan
31		 Maine A C A+ A- A- 66% 8% 26% A+ A A+ B+ A+ F D A+ B F F A+ B- F+ 61% 9% 30% F F A+ A+ A+ F C+ F C-
1.28 61% 75% 38% +6 +4 1.22 63% 1.2 .74 25% .28 93% .26 1.08 68% 20% 29% +2 +3 1.13 3% 0.0 .00 10% .30 74% .22
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 NJIT F F C F F 42% 29% 29% D- F B- F D F A+ F A- F F A+ B F+ 41% 16% 43% F F D F F F A+ A+ A+
0.82 30% 36% 14% -21 -1 0.58 37% 0.8 .28 21% .52 61% .31 1.19 78% 11% 29% +1 +1 1.05 31% 1.2 .36 7% .21 62% .13
Feb
7		 Albany A- B+ D- A+ A- 46% 28% 26% D B+ B- A+ A+ D A+ D- A+ D- B F C+ C 49% 20% 31% D C- A- F F F F B F
1.28 67% 31% 50% +8 0 1.17 38% 1.6 .62 17% .54 71% .38 1.14 52% 50% 31% -2 +1 1.00 25% 1.6 .41 10% .42 62% .26



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 1st
2nd 0.3 3.1 1.1 4.5 2nd
3rd 0.5 6.8 7.0 0.2 14.4 3rd
4th 2.0 18.4 20.1 3.0 43.4 4th
5th 0.4 8.5 11.3 1.2 21.3 5th
6th 0.0 2.0 7.1 0.7 9.8 6th
7th 0.2 2.8 1.2 4.2 7th
8th 0.6 0.9 0.0 1.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.8 6.0 18.8 30.8 28.3 13.2 2.1 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 34.9% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1
10-6 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 2.1% 12.9% 12.9% 16.0 0.3 1.8
10-6 13.2% 11.1% 11.1% 16.0 0.0 1.5 11.7
9-7 28.3% 9.1% 9.1% 16.0 2.6 25.7
8-8 30.8% 6.9% 6.9% 16.0 2.1 28.7
7-9 18.8% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.9 17.9
6-10 6.0% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.2 5.8
5-11 0.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.8
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 7.6% 7.6% 0.0% 16.0 92.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%
Lose Out 0.7%