Bradley
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.8 120
Expected Predictive Rating +3.4 108
Pace 68.3 196
Improvement +1.0 139

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ #122 C C- B B- C-
Defense C+ #136 C C B C- A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 291 58% 164 -2.2 260
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 137 33% 332 -0.4 203
Three Pointers 43% 143 36% 75 +2.7 93
1st FG Attempt 1.02 169 +0.0 170
Second Chance 26.9% 280 1.06 130 0.29 235
Turnovers 14.5% 39
Freethrows 0.33 121 75% 92 0.25 98
Total Offense +1.8 122

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 338 59% 202 +4.1 51
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 19 38% 190 -3.0 351
Three Pointers 41% 181 36% 259 -1.0 233
1st FG Attempt 1.02 174 +0.1 174
Second Chance 31.2% 211 0.99 129 0.31 180
Turnovers 19.4% 50
Freethrows 0.32 247 72% 201 0.24 246
Total Defense +1.0 136

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.5 260 -1.5 17
Shot Type Accuracy +0.6 151 +1.4 233
Possession Length 17.0 141 17.3 194
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 211 0.16 137
Improvement +2.8 #53 -1.8 #288

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10% 11% 9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.5 12.8
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 4% 8% 1%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round10% 11% 9%
Second Round1% 1% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Southern Illinois (Away) - 42.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 23 - 53 - 7
Quad 38 - 511 - 11
Quad 49 - 119 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 134 St. Bonaventure L 63 - 69 54% -4  10% 0 - 1 C- -4 F -10 C F A B +5 A- B B
 Sat, Nov 8 296 Central Michigan W 85 - 54 89% +14  98% 1 - 1 A +20 B- +5 A F B- A+ +16 A+ A- A-
 Wed, Nov 12 219 Tennessee Martin L 67 - 78 80% -2  27% 1 - 2 F+ -17 F -11 F C+ C- D -5 F F+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 107 @San Francisco L 64 - 75 33% -2  24% 1 - 3 C- -4 D- -7 F D C B- +3 F A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 19 318 Umass Lowell W 87 - 77 92% -0  43% 2 - 3 C- -3 B+ +9 B A D F+ -11 D- B+ D+
 Mon, Nov 24 221 Princeton W 88 - 64 71% +8  76% 3 - 3 A +21 A +12 A+ F B- A- +9 D+ F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 139 UC San Diego L 77 - 87 56% -3  30% 3 - 4 D -9 B- +4 C A+ F+ F -13 C+ F D-
 Wed, Nov 26 95 Liberty W 74 - 64 40% +10  98% 4 - 4 A- +15 B- +5 B A+ F A +11 B+ B A
 Tue, Dec 2 125 Washington St. W 64 - 60 64% -3  10% 5 - 4 C+ +3 F -13 F C+ A A+ +16 B+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 314 Northern Illinois W 84 - 55 91% +14  88% 6 - 4 A- +17 C+ +2 B D A- A+ +14 A+ D B
 Thu, Dec 18 197 @Indiana St. W 108 - 99 3OT 59% +1  44% 7 - 4 1 - 0 B +10 B +5 C- C+ A+ C+ +2 B- A- F+
 Sun, Dec 21 127 Southern Illinois W 73 - 69 64% +4  81% 8 - 4 2 - 0 C+ +3 C- -0 C B- D B- +3 B+ C- B-
 Mon, Dec 29 273 Evansville W 76 - 68 87% -2  32% 9 - 4 3 - 0 C -1 C- -1 D F A+ C +0 B D- D-
 Thu, Jan 1 78 @Belmont L 78 - 88 23% -3  8% 9 - 5 3 - 1 C +0 B +6 A C F D+ -5 C- F A
 Sun, Jan 4 112 @Murray St. L 66 - 86 36% -14  1% 9 - 6 3 - 2 D- -14 F+ -8 F C- A+ D -5 F B B-
 Wed, Jan 7 177 Drake W 93 - 66 74% +20  94% 10 - 6 4 - 2 A+ +23 B+ +9 B+ C+ A A +13 B A+ A
 Sat, Jan 10 100 Northern Iowa W 75 - 69 52% +2  63% 11 - 6 5 - 2 B +8 B+ +9 B+ C+ A+ C -1 B C+ F
 Tue, Jan 13 273 @Evansville W 94 - 90 OT 72% -3  35% 12 - 6 6 - 2 C +1 A- +11 B- D- A+ F+ -11 F D+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 94 @Illinois St. L 62 - 88 30% -13  5% 12 - 7 6 - 3 F -18 D -5 F C- D+ F -14 F+ F+ F+
 Wed, Jan 21 197 Indiana St. W 75 - 68 78% -3  6% 13 - 7 7 - 3 C +2 D+ -4 F C A+ B +5 D- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 137 Illinois-Chicago L 70 - 85 66% -8  22% 13 - 8 7 - 4 F+ -17 C +0 B- D A+ F -18 F B D-
 Sat, Jan 31 177 @Drake W 87 - 73 53% +8  82% 14 - 8 8 - 4 A- +16 A+ +18 A+ B+ C+ C -1 B D+ D+
 Tue, Feb 3 155 Valparaiso W 72 - 65 71% +5  83% 15 - 8 9 - 4 C+ +4 C+ +2 B+ F+ C+ B- +2 C F+ B
 Fri, Feb 6 100 @Northern Iowa L 49 - 61 30% -7  7% 15 - 9 9 - 5 C- -4 F+ -9 C- F+ F B- +3 B+ F C+
 Mon, Feb 9 78 Belmont W 95 - 84 OT 44% +2  63% 16 - 9 10 - 5 A- +15 A- +10 A- D- A+ B +4 A+ F B+
 Sun, Feb 15 127 @Southern Illinois L 71 - 73 42%
 Wed, Feb 18 155 @Valparaiso L 70 - 71 49%
 Sat, Feb 21 94 Illinois St. W 73 - 72 51%
 Tue, Feb 24 137 @Illinois-Chicago L 70 - 72 43%
 Sun, Mar 1 112 Murray St. W 84 - 82 59%
Totals 18 - 12 12 - 8 +3 C+ +2 C C- B C+ +1 C C B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C D B- C 35% 23% 43% C- C D+ C+ C- B C+ B- B- C+ C C D+ C- 31% 28% 41% A- C C- C+ C B C- C C-
1.11 58% 33% 36% +1 -1 1.02 27% 1.1 .29 14% .33 75% .25 1.07 59% 38% 36% +1 -1 1.02 31% 1.0 .31 19% .32 72% .24
Nov
3		 St. Bonaventure F A A- F C+ 33% 25% 41% D C F F F A F+ F F B A+ D C A- 30% 30% 40% A- A- D+ A+ B B D C- D
0.95 71% 46% 29% +3 -1 1.06 15% 0.0 .00 14% .23 69% .16 1.04 40% 47% 35% -2 -2 0.94 38% 0.7 .28 20% .32 76% .24
Nov
8		 Central Michigan B- A+ F A A+ 36% 13% 51% C A D+ F F B- A D+ B+ A+ A+ C- A+ A- 23% 55% 21% A+ A+ A- B A- A- C F D
1.24 82% 17% 42% +12 +1 1.28 32% 0.9 .29 15% .43 68% .29 0.79 36% 42% 20% -7 -6 0.77 22% 1.0 .22 22% .28 80% .22
Nov
12		 Tennessee Martin F C+ F F F 42% 18% 40% B+ F F+ A+ C+ C- A+ A+ A+ D D- F F F 39% 9% 52% F F A+ F F+ A+ C- C+ C-
0.91 63% 13% 6% -19 +1 0.64 26% 1.3 .33 19% .62 81% .51 1.06 65% 50% 43% +11 +1 1.27 27% 1.6 .42 31% .34 65% .22
Nov
15		 San Francisco D- F A+ F F 31% 12% 58% B- F D C- D C A A+ A+ B- C+ F F F 43% 17% 40% D+ F F A+ A+ A+ F C+ F
0.94 38% 50% 23% -14 +1 0.75 21% 1.0 .21 13% .36 86% .31 1.10 56% 57% 53% +14 +1 1.31 45% 0.5 .21 26% .46 70% .32
Nov
19		 Umass Lowell B+ A+ F A+ A 30% 36% 34% F B B+ B+ A D A+ C- A+ F+ F D- C F 21% 47% 32% A+ D- C A B+ D+ F F F
1.29 79% 18% 56% +10 -3 1.17 39% 1.3 .48 15% .45 73% .33 1.14 80% 45% 33% +8 -5 1.09 31% 0.8 .24 19% .48 85% .40
Nov
24		 Princeton A A+ C- A+ A+ 30% 15% 55% C- A+ F F F B- B- D+ C+ A- D- F A- D 28% 18% 54% B- D+ D- F+ F A+ F A+ F+
1.26 81% 38% 45% +16 0 1.34 14% 0.8 .10 13% .33 70% .23 0.92 64% 57% 29% +1 0 1.03 31% 1.2 .38 34% .46 62% .28
Nov
25		 UC San Diego B- F+ B C C 31% 14% 55% C+ C A- A+ A+ F+ C B C+ F B+ B- F+ C+ 41% 12% 47% C C+ C F F D- F F+ F
1.10 47% 43% 33% -3 0 0.96 37% 1.5 .55 20% .27 73% .20 1.24 50% 33% 39% 0 +1 1.04 27% 1.7 .45 13% .51 74% .38
Nov
26		 Liberty B- B+ C- A B+ 35% 28% 37% D B A B+ A+ F B+ A+ A A B F C- B+ 43% 9% 48% B- B+ B- A B A F A+ D
1.15 63% 38% 41% +6 -1 1.11 42% 1.4 .58 23% .28 86% .24 1.00 55% 50% 36% +2 +2 1.09 17% 0.8 .13 19% .40 52% .21
Dec
2		 Washington St. F C+ D+ F F 33% 21% 46% C F D+ A+ C+ A B+ F C- A+ D- A+ F C+ 23% 41% 36% A+ B+ B+ A+ A+ A+ B+ F C+
0.93 59% 36% 13% -15 0 0.71 23% 1.4 .32 10% .36 59% .21 0.87 70% 22% 50% +5 -4 1.05 25% 0.6 .14 29% .25 83% .21
Dec
6		 Northern Illinois C+ B+ C B+ B 41% 15% 44% C B F A+ D A- D A C- A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 36% 17% 47% B A+ F C+ D B F A+ B-
1.16 68% 38% 38% +6 +1 1.17 20% 1.3 .27 14% .30 79% .24 0.76 47% 13% 18% -19 0 0.64 40% 0.8 .33 25% .44 46% .20
Dec
18		 Indiana St. B C- A- D- C 29% 34% 37% F C- D A C+ A+ B+ F C+ C+ C A+ D B- 36% 11% 53% B+ B- B+ A+ A- F+ F C- F
1.14 55% 50% 29% 0 -2 0.97 28% 1.2 .33 8% .31 63% .20 1.05 61% 0% 35% -2 +1 1.00 20% 0.8 .16 15% .53 70% .37
Dec
21		 Southern Illinois C- C- F A+ C 43% 27% 29% C- C B- B- B- D B+ A+ A+ B- C F A+ B+ 33% 35% 31% A- B+ C C- C- B- C C C+
1.02 55% 14% 47% -2 -1 0.96 31% 1.1 .34 21% .35 90% .32 0.96 59% 56% 13% -4 -2 0.90 30% 1.0 .30 18% .31 67% .21
Dec
29		 Evansville C- A+ F B- C- 26% 39% 35% F D D F F A+ B A A- C B- C- B- C+ 17% 47% 36% A+ B D+ F D- D- B+ C+ B
1.10 79% 24% 37% +1 -3 0.98 28% 0.6 .18 7% .33 81% .27 0.99 56% 40% 32% -1 -5 0.91 25% 1.3 .33 16% .24 71% .17
Jan
1		 Belmont B D C- A+ A 24% 18% 58% C- A A- F C F B+ F C D+ C- A+ F C 50% 2% 48% F C- F A- F A F F+ F
1.12 50% 33% 45% +7 -1 1.14 41% 0.8 .32 23% .32 65% .20 1.26 64% 0% 43% +8 +3 1.25 43% 1.1 .46 23% .56 73% .41
Jan
4		 Murray St. F+ F F A+ F 41% 32% 27% D F D B C- A+ D A C- D F A- F F 29% 17% 54% B F C+ B+ B B- A F B-
0.96 33% 11% 44% -15 -1 0.69 27% 1.2 .31 6% .25 81% .20 1.25 80% 33% 43% +13 0 1.27 31% 1.0 .31 17% .25 93% .23
Jan
7		 Drake B+ C- A+ B B+ 33% 21% 46% C+ B+ F+ A+ C+ A A+ C A A A+ A+ F+ B- 24% 22% 55% B- B A+ A+ A+ A F A+ F+
1.25 58% 58% 38% +7 0 1.16 22% 1.4 .31 11% .42 68% .29 0.89 42% 27% 39% -2 -1 0.96 15% 0.5 .08 19% .46 61% .28
Jan
10		 Northern Iowa B+ A B+ C- A 26% 28% 46% F+ B+ C- B C+ A+ A+ F A+ C B C D+ C+ 24% 33% 43% A+ B A- F C+ F D A- C-
1.12 69% 43% 30% +2 -2 1.02 23% 1.0 .23 7% .45 64% .29 1.03 54% 39% 35% 0 -3 0.96 16% 1.3 .21 7% .29 61% .18
Jan
13		 Evansville A- B- A+ D B 40% 28% 32% C- B- D+ F D- A+ A B A F+ F+ D- F F 20% 36% 44% A F D+ D+ D+ C+ F C- F
1.24 63% 59% 32% +7 -1 1.13 29% 0.8 .24 8% .37 77% .29 1.18 70% 44% 45% +12 -3 1.20 25% 1.1 .28 20% .51 74% .38
Jan
17		 Illinois St. D F F+ D F 43% 30% 28% C F B- F C- D+ A+ B A+ F F A F F 37% 26% 37% B- F+ F B F+ F+ A- F B
0.93 40% 29% 31% -12 -1 0.77 29% 0.8 .22 18% .42 74% .31 1.32 75% 29% 45% +10 -1 1.20 41% 1.0 .41 12% .22 77% .17
Jan
21		 Indiana St. D+ F+ F F F 38% 22% 40% C F D- A C A+ A+ A+ A+ B F D- C- F 40% 18% 42% A D- A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ C- B
1.05 48% 25% 23% -13 0 0.75 26% 1.2 .31 4% .45 84% .38 0.95 75% 44% 33% +8 0 1.18 11% 0.7 .07 27% .19 70% .13
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
24		 Illinois-Chicago C A A- F B- 34% 19% 47% C- B- F A+ D A+ A- C- B+ F F D F F 20% 43% 37% A+ F C+ B+ B D- B F C
1.07 69% 44% 27% 0 0 1.02 21% 1.3 .27 14% .39 73% .28 1.30 70% 43% 56% +16 -4 1.27 34% 0.9 .31 15% .29 81% .23
Jan
31		 Drake A+ F F A+ A+ 27% 29% 44% D A+ A C B+ C+ D- B D+ C F F A+ C+ 17% 38% 45% A+ B F A D+ D+ F F F
1.34 43% 20% 70% +14 -2 1.27 40% 0.9 .37 14% .25 71% .18 1.12 75% 56% 19% 0 -4 0.94 35% 0.9 .32 12% .46 81% .37
Feb
3		 Valparaiso C+ C A+ B- A- 33% 29% 38% D- B+ D F F+ C+ C- C- C- B- D D+ A C- 33% 37% 31% B C B- F F+ B A+ A+ A+
1.10 59% 53% 35% +5 -1 1.10 27% 0.6 .17 17% .30 69% .20 1.00 63% 39% 27% -2 -2 0.94 29% 1.5 .43 18% .19 40% .08
Feb
6		 Northern Iowa F+ F F A D+ 33% 13% 54% B- C- F D- F+ F B A+ A+ B- B D A+ A- 50% 20% 30% C B+ F D- F C+ D- F+ F+
0.82 31% 20% 38% -8 +1 0.87 14% 0.8 .11 27% .30 92% .27 1.02 55% 44% 23% -5 +1 0.93 29% 1.2 .35 15% .30 73% .22
Feb
9		 Belmont A- F+ F A+ A- 29% 15% 56% C+ A- F+ C D- A+ A+ C+ A+ B F A+ A A+ 25% 19% 57% A+ A+ F F+ F B+ F F F
1.23 47% 11% 48% +5 0 1.12 24% 1.0 .24 10% .37 77% .29 1.09 85% 20% 30% 0 -1 1.00 37% 1.4 .53 22% .40 75% .30



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.3 2.1 1.5 4.0 1st
2nd 0.0 4.4 20.6 13.1 1.8 39.9 2nd
3rd 0.5 14.4 7.7 0.1 22.7 3rd
4th 0.0 5.1 10.2 0.6 16.0 4th
5th 0.4 8.2 1.9 10.5 5th
6th 2.1 3.2 0.1 5.3 6th
7th 1.4 0.2 1.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 4.0 17.1 31.0 29.2 15.3 3.4 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 45.4% 1.5    0.6 1.0
14-6 14.0% 2.1    0.1 1.4 0.5 0.1
13-7 1.0% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.0% 4.0 0.7 2.4 0.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 3.4% 13.9% 13.9% 12.0 0.0 0.4 0.1 2.9
14-6 15.3% 14.0% 14.0% 12.4 0.1 1.3 0.8 0.0 13.2
13-7 29.2% 11.8% 11.8% 12.6 1.5 1.8 0.1 25.7
12-8 31.0% 9.5% 9.5% 12.9 0.0 0.8 1.7 0.4 28.0
11-9 17.1% 5.3% 5.3% 13.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 16.2
10-10 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.9
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 10.0% 10.0% 0.0% 12.7 90.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 12.0 8.5 80.9 10.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0%
Lose Out 1.6%