Northern Illinois
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.7 #318
Expected Predictive Rating -8.5 #307
Pace 71.0 #121
Improvement +0.5 #158

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #332 D+ D+ F B+ B+
Defense #269 D D- C+ D+ D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #128 1.04 #316 -1.3 #233
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #337 0.63 #332 -4.0 #347
Three Pointers 48% #56 0.98 #240 +2.5 #101
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #258 -2.8 #257
Freethrows 22.3 #7 66% #344 14.7 #62
Second Chance 33.9% #93 0.84 #355 0.29 #247
Turnovers 22.6% #365
Total Offense -6.7 #332

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #53 1.25 #296 -4.9 #331
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #298 0.80 #262 +1.1 #107
Three Pointers 40% #214 1.04 #218 +0.0 #183
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #298 -3.8 #298
Freethrows 18.9 #272 74% #238 14.0 #285
Second Chance 32.8% #273 1.16 #308 0.38 #317
Turnovers 17.6% #103
Total Defense -3.0 #269

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.5% #35 1.7% #329
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.9% #305 5.7% #285
Possession Length 17.8 #219 16.8 #89
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #260 0.22 #327
Improvement -4.6 #359 +5.1 #8

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.4% 3.5% 0.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 29.7% 13.2% 37.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ball St. (Away) - 31.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 31 - 81 - 15
Quad 46 - 67 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 361 Louisiana Monroe W 102 - 82 81% +10  1 - 0 +1 +13 D A+ F -13 F F C+
 Fri, Nov 7 35 @Wisconsin L 72 - 97 2% -19  1 - 1 -8 +2 A+ F F -9 B- F C
 Mon, Nov 10 79 @Grand Canyon L 59 - 88 4% -17  1 - 2 -19 -7 D- B+ F -10 F F A+
 Tue, Nov 18 110 @Northern Iowa L 57 - 70 7% -3  1 - 3 -6 +0 B+ D F -8 F C A+
 Fri, Nov 21 268 @Loyola Chicago W 76 - 59 26% +9  2 - 3 +14 +11 A- B F +5 C- A B+
 Tue, Nov 25 171 @Austin Peay L 59 - 77 14% -7  2 - 4 -16 -6 F D A -11 F F C
 Tue, Dec 2 237 Lindenwood L 64 - 99 40% -22  2 - 5 -42 -14 D+ F F -26 C F F
 Sat, Dec 6 119 @Bradley L 55 - 84 8% -14  2 - 6 -23 -17 F C+ F -5 F C+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 184 @Elon L 79 - 85 15% +4  2 - 7 -5 +2 D+ D+ F -7 C- A+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 322 Central Michigan W 74 - 73 63% -10  3 - 7 1 - 0 -12 -1 F A- F -11 D F B
 Wed, Dec 31 201 Buffalo L 67 - 81 35% -7  3 - 8 1 - 1 -20 -10 F F F -10 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 148 @Kent St. L 73 - 77 11% -9  3 - 9 1 - 2 -0 -4 B+ D+ F +4 B A C
 Tue, Jan 6 166 Toledo L 61 - 75 28% -11  3 - 10 1 - 3 -18 -18 F D- F +0 D A+ A-
 Tue, Jan 13 198 @Eastern Michigan L 59 - 77 17% -3  3 - 11 1 - 4 -18 -14 F F F -3 D+ A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 17 176 Massachusetts W 70 - 68 30% +3  4 - 11 2 - 4 -2 -7 F D+ D- +4 A- A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 20 196 @Ohio L 77 - 80 17% -5  4 - 12 2 - 5 -2 +1 B- F F -3 C- F B+
 Sat, Jan 24 296 @Ball St. L 67 - 72 32%
 Tue, Jan 27 260 Western Michigan L 75 - 76 45%
 Sat, Jan 31 89 @Miami (OH) L 69 - 88 4%
 Sat, Feb 7 273 @Georgia St. L 68 - 74 27%
 Wed, Feb 11 129 Bowling Green L 69 - 78 21%
 Sat, Feb 14 322 @Central Michigan L 71 - 74 40%
 Tue, Feb 17 201 @Buffalo L 70 - 80 17%
 Sat, Feb 21 196 Ohio L 75 - 79 35%
 Tue, Feb 24 166 @Toledo L 71 - 83 13%
 Sat, Feb 28 296 Ball St. W 70 - 69 54%
 Tue, Mar 3 148 Kent St. L 77 - 84 25%
 Fri, Mar 6 64 @Akron L 71 - 92 3%
Totals 7 - 21 5 - 13 -10 -7 D+ D+ F -3 D D- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 1.6 0.3 2.6 7th
8th 0.7 3.1 1.2 0.0 5.1 8th
9th 0.6 4.8 3.9 0.3 9.6 9th
10th 0.4 6.3 8.9 1.4 0.0 17.0 10th
11th 0.2 6.2 12.2 3.3 0.1 22.0 11th
12th 0.5 6.9 14.2 5.0 0.3 26.9 12th
13th 4.1 7.8 2.9 0.2 0.0 15.0 13th
Total 4.5 15.0 23.6 24.3 18.1 9.2 3.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.3% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3
9-9 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.1
8-10 3.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.9
7-11 9.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.2
6-12 18.1% 18.1
5-13 24.3% 24.3
4-14 23.6% 23.6
3-15 15.0% 15.0
2-16 4.5% 4.5
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.6%