Wisconsin
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.4#15
Expected Predictive Rating+16.8#17
Pace68.5#166
Improvement+0.2#190

Offense
Total Offense+10.7#12
First Shot+10.4#5
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#169
Layup/Dunks+1.6#122
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#338
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.4#26
Freethrows+5.6#2
Improvement-1.9#277

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#35
First Shot+5.9#31
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#115
Layups/Dunks+4.1#50
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#328
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#41
Freethrows+0.3#163
Improvement+2.1#80
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 3.9% 4.9% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 45.1% 53.8% 11.9%
Top 6 Seed 87.7% 93.1% 67.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 4.7 4.4 5.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round83.9% 85.8% 76.4%
Sweet Sixteen46.5% 48.5% 38.9%
Elite Eight17.8% 18.4% 15.7%
Final Four7.4% 7.6% 6.4%
Championship Game2.8% 2.8% 2.7%
National Champion0.8% 0.9% 0.8%

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b5 - 27 - 7
Quad 29 - 117 - 9
Quad 32 - 019 - 9
Quad 46 - 025 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 319   Holy Cross W 85-61 99%     1 - 0 +11.7 +8.9 +3.9
  Nov 07, 2024 175   Montana St. W 79-67 96%     2 - 0 +8.4 +9.9 -0.7
  Nov 10, 2024 178   Appalachian St. W 87-56 96%     3 - 0 +27.2 +16.9 +10.6
  Nov 15, 2024 12   Arizona W 103-88 58%     4 - 0 +30.2 +21.0 +6.9
  Nov 18, 2024 268   UT Rio Grande Valley W 87-84 98%     5 - 0 -5.6 +9.6 -15.3
  Nov 22, 2024 78   Central Florida W 86-70 83%     6 - 0 +23.3 +6.7 +15.1
  Nov 24, 2024 60   Pittsburgh W 81-75 78%     7 - 0 +15.4 +13.7 +1.9
  Nov 30, 2024 361   Chicago St. W 74-53 99.7%    8 - 0 +1.3 -2.6 +5.2
  Dec 03, 2024 30   Michigan L 64-67 72%     8 - 1 0 - 1 +8.5 +0.2 +8.2
  Dec 07, 2024 25   @ Marquette L 74-88 47%     8 - 2 +4.1 +15.2 -12.1
  Dec 10, 2024 17   @ Illinois L 80-86 41%     8 - 3 0 - 2 +13.6 +10.9 +3.0
  Dec 14, 2024 72   Butler W 83-74 82%     9 - 3 +16.8 +13.4 +3.7
  Dec 22, 2024 337   Detroit Mercy W 76-53 99%     10 - 3 +8.7 +1.6 +8.1
  Jan 03, 2025 63   Iowa W 116-85 85%     11 - 3 1 - 2 +37.4 +33.2 +1.9
  Jan 06, 2025 65   @ Rutgers W 75-63 72%     12 - 3 2 - 2 +23.4 +6.6 +16.9
  Jan 10, 2025 86   Minnesota W 80-59 89%     13 - 3 3 - 2 +24.9 +15.6 +10.8
  Jan 14, 2025 37   Ohio St. W 70-68 74%     14 - 3 4 - 2 +12.5 +3.7 +8.9
  Jan 18, 2025 62   @ USC W 84-69 70%     15 - 3 5 - 2 +27.0 +15.3 +11.8
  Jan 21, 2025 24   @ UCLA L 83-85 46%     15 - 4 5 - 3 +16.3 +24.9 -8.7
  Jan 26, 2025 57   Nebraska W 83-55 83%     16 - 4 6 - 3 +35.3 +14.0 +21.2
  Jan 29, 2025 11   @ Maryland L 68-76 36%     16 - 5 6 - 4 +13.0 +9.3 +3.4
  Feb 01, 2025 51   @ Northwestern W 75-69 64%     17 - 5 7 - 4 +19.6 +19.5 +1.0
  Feb 04, 2025 42   Indiana W 76-64 78%     18 - 5 8 - 4 +21.1 +12.9 +8.9
  Feb 08, 2025 63   @ Iowa W 74-63 70%     19 - 5 9 - 4 +22.9 +7.7 +15.9
  Feb 15, 2025 16   @ Purdue W 94-84 40%     20 - 5 10 - 4 +30.0 +34.5 -3.8
  Feb 18, 2025 17   Illinois W 95-74 62%     21 - 5 11 - 4 +35.1 +24.7 +9.8
  Feb 22, 2025 34   Oregon L 73-77 OT 73%     21 - 6 11 - 5 +6.8 -1.0 +8.2
  Feb 25, 2025 104   Washington W 88-62 93%     22 - 6 12 - 5 +27.2 +23.5 +6.0
  Mar 02, 2025 8   @ Michigan St. L 62-71 32%     22 - 7 12 - 6 +13.2 -0.7 +14.3
  Mar 05, 2025 86   @ Minnesota W 74-67 78%     23 - 7 13 - 6 +16.4 +13.8 +3.2
  Mar 08, 2025 58   Penn St. L 75-86 83%     23 - 8 13 - 7 -3.8 +1.6 -4.9
Projected Record 23 - 8 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 100.0 100.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 100.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 100.0% 100.0% 11.2% 88.8% 4.7 0.3 3.6 17.2 24.0 24.3 18.3 10.8 1.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 11.2% 88.8% 4.7 0.3 3.6 17.2 24.0 24.3 18.3 10.8 1.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 11.2% 100.0% 2.9 2.0 25.3 57.2 15.0 0.5 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 10.1% 100.0% 3.9 0.2 4.1 31.2 40.8 20.6 2.9 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 23.6% 100.0% 4.2 0.0 1.4 23.1 39.3 26.8 8.4 1.1
Lose Out 21.0% 100.0% 5.9 1.7 10.2 24.2 31.2 27.5 4.8 0.2