Wisconsin
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+16.6#17
Expected Predictive Rating+17.3#15
Pace68.5#175
Improvement+2.3#80

Offense
Total Offense+10.9#8
First Shot+10.6#3
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#161
Layup/Dunks+1.7#121
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#338
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.5#24
Freethrows+5.6#1
Improvement+0.4#158

Defense
Total Defense+5.6#46
First Shot+5.0#42
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#127
Layups/Dunks+3.9#51
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#337
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#46
Freethrows+0.1#179
Improvement+1.9#84
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
#1 Seed 2.6% 3.0% 0.5%
Top 2 Seed 10.8% 12.6% 3.2%
Top 4 Seed 43.4% 47.3% 26.3%
Top 6 Seed 78.3% 81.5% 64.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.7% 99.8% 99.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.7% 99.8% 99.2%
Average Seed 4.9 4.7 5.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.0% 99.6% 96.5%
Conference Champion 8.6% 9.9% 2.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.4%
First Round99.7% 99.8% 99.2%
Second Round80.1% 81.6% 73.6%
Sweet Sixteen43.1% 45.2% 34.2%
Elite Eight19.3% 20.5% 14.1%
Final Four8.1% 8.8% 5.3%
Championship Game3.3% 3.6% 1.6%
National Champion1.2% 1.4% 0.5%

Next Game: Indiana (Home) - 81.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b5 - 18 - 8
Quad 28 - 116 - 9
Quad 33 - 019 - 9
Quad 45 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 319   Holy Cross W 85-61 99%     1 - 0 +12.2 +8.6 +4.6
  Nov 07, 2024 189   Montana St. W 79-67 96%     2 - 0 +8.2 +9.8 -0.8
  Nov 10, 2024 145   Appalachian St. W 87-56 94%     3 - 0 +29.7 +17.1 +12.8
  Nov 15, 2024 10   Arizona W 103-88 55%     4 - 0 +30.3 +21.8 +6.2
  Nov 18, 2024 264   UT Rio Grande Valley W 87-84 98%     5 - 0 -5.3 +9.9 -15.2
  Nov 22, 2024 62   Central Florida W 86-70 77%     6 - 0 +24.9 +8.2 +15.2
  Nov 24, 2024 47   Pittsburgh W 81-75 71%     7 - 0 +16.8 +13.3 +3.7
  Nov 30, 2024 359   Chicago St. W 74-53 99%     8 - 0 +4.3 +1.1 +4.5
  Dec 03, 2024 18   Michigan L 64-67 61%     8 - 1 0 - 1 +10.6 -0.3 +10.8
  Dec 07, 2024 21   @ Marquette L 74-88 43%     8 - 2 +4.2 +15.3 -12.0
  Dec 10, 2024 13   @ Illinois L 80-86 38%     8 - 3 0 - 2 +13.7 +12.6 +1.4
  Dec 14, 2024 75   Butler W 83-74 80%     9 - 3 +16.5 +14.4 +2.4
  Dec 22, 2024 323   Detroit Mercy W 76-53 99%     10 - 3 +10.6 +3.3 +8.3
  Jan 03, 2025 60   Iowa W 116-85 82%     11 - 3 1 - 2 +37.9 +33.8 +1.7
  Jan 06, 2025 63   @ Rutgers W 75-63 69%     12 - 3 2 - 2 +23.4 +8.1 +15.3
  Jan 10, 2025 92   Minnesota W 80-59 88%     13 - 3 3 - 2 +24.6 +15.0 +11.1
  Jan 14, 2025 25   Ohio St. W 70-68 67%     14 - 3 4 - 2 +14.2 +5.6 +8.6
  Jan 18, 2025 54   @ USC W 84-69 66%     15 - 3 5 - 2 +27.4 +17.0 +10.5
  Jan 21, 2025 29   @ UCLA L 83-85 49%     15 - 4 5 - 3 +14.8 +24.4 -9.7
  Jan 26, 2025 48   Nebraska W 83-55 79%     16 - 4 6 - 3 +36.1 +14.9 +21.0
  Jan 29, 2025 16   @ Maryland L 68-76 40%     16 - 5 6 - 4 +11.2 +6.8 +4.2
  Feb 01, 2025 56   @ Northwestern W 75-69 66%     17 - 5 7 - 4 +18.3 +18.9 +0.3
  Feb 04, 2025 53   Indiana W 81-72 81%    
  Feb 08, 2025 60   @ Iowa W 86-81 67%    
  Feb 15, 2025 9   @ Purdue L 73-77 34%    
  Feb 18, 2025 13   Illinois W 82-80 59%    
  Feb 22, 2025 45   Oregon W 79-72 77%    
  Feb 25, 2025 89   Washington W 82-69 89%    
  Mar 02, 2025 15   @ Michigan St. L 74-77 37%    
  Mar 05, 2025 92   @ Minnesota W 74-66 76%    
  Mar 08, 2025 50   Penn St. W 83-74 81%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 4.9 2.4 8.6 1st
2nd 1.0 7.7 6.1 0.3 15.1 2nd
3rd 0.5 7.3 10.2 1.3 19.3 3rd
4th 0.1 3.2 12.6 3.6 0.0 19.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 7.1 6.1 0.3 14.3 5th
6th 0.1 3.2 6.5 1.0 10.8 6th
7th 0.8 4.2 1.9 0.0 6.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 1.6 0.1 3.4 8th
9th 0.2 0.9 0.1 1.2 9th
10th 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.1 0.8 3.6 9.9 19.4 28.1 23.0 12.4 2.8 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 87.7% 2.4    1.5 0.9 0.1
15-5 39.8% 4.9    1.1 2.2 1.3 0.4 0.0
14-6 5.2% 1.2    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.1
13-7 0.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.6% 8.6 2.6 3.2 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 2.8% 100.0% 22.7% 77.3% 1.8 1.0 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 12.4% 100.0% 21.9% 78.1% 2.7 1.2 3.9 4.7 2.0 0.5 0.1 100.0%
14-6 23.0% 100.0% 17.1% 82.9% 3.9 0.3 2.3 6.8 6.8 4.9 1.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-7 28.1% 100.0% 10.9% 89.1% 5.0 0.1 0.7 2.9 5.8 8.2 7.1 2.8 0.5 0.0 100.0%
12-8 19.4% 99.8% 7.2% 92.6% 6.0 0.1 0.8 2.0 4.0 5.1 4.6 2.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 99.8%
11-9 9.9% 99.5% 4.2% 95.3% 7.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 2.9 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.1 99.5%
10-10 3.6% 98.1% 3.6% 94.5% 8.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.1 98.0%
9-11 0.8% 96.4% 96.4% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 96.4%
8-12 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.7% 12.3% 87.5% 4.9 2.6 8.3 15.6 16.9 18.6 16.4 11.4 6.1 2.8 1.1 0.1 0.3 99.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 1.4 63.5 36.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6% 100.0% 1.7 33.9 58.9 7.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8% 100.0% 1.9 31.0 48.8 19.0 1.2