Wisconsin
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +13.7 #35
Expected Predictive Rating +15.3 #28
Pace 73.9 #60
Improvement +2.2 #81

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #29 A- C+ A+ A- B
Defense #51 B- A- C B- B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #263 1.31 #44 +1.0 #145
2 Pt. Jumpers 11% #341 0.92 #25 -2.5 #300
Three Pointers 53% #13 1.09 #83 +8.0 #9
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #30 +6.5 #30
Freethrows 20.3 #43 76% #76 15.4 #30
Second Chance 29.9% #205 1.16 #45 0.35 #113
Turnovers 12.4% #8
Total Offense +8.7 #29

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #269 1.03 #38 +4.1 #58
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #50 0.90 #343 -3.8 #361
Three Pointers 39% #241 0.93 #77 +2.6 #84
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #84 +2.9 #85
Freethrows 16.4 #137 70% #84 11.5 #112
Second Chance 22.7% #7 1.06 #213 0.24 #26
Turnovers 16.2% #196
Total Defense +5.0 #51

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.9% #59 -1.7% #55
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 10.6% #35 -4.1% #101
Possession Length 15.0 #17 17.9 #277
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #52 0.12 #38
Improvement +2.5 #59 -0.2 #205

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.7% 3.4% 1.0%
Top 6 Seed 19.9% 23.5% 11.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 84.1% 88.1% 74.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 83.9% 87.9% 74.2%
Average Seed 7.8 7.6 8.3
.500 or above 99.5% 99.9% 98.6%
.500 or above in Conference 91.9% 95.8% 82.2%
Conference Champion 0.6% 0.8% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four6.9% 5.9% 9.3%
First Round80.8% 85.3% 69.7%
Second Round44.4% 48.0% 35.6%
Sweet Sixteen12.5% 13.9% 9.2%
Elite Eight4.2% 4.7% 3.0%
Final Four1.3% 1.4% 0.9%
Championship Game0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: USC (Home) - 71.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 10
Quad 26 - 211 - 12
Quad 34 - 015 - 12
Quad 46 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 190 Campbell W 96 - 64 95% +8  1 - 0 +27 +18 B+ A+ A+ +9 B+ C A+
 Fri, Nov 7 318 Northern Illinois W 97 - 72 98% +19  2 - 0 +12 +15 C A+ A+ -4 F A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 11 296 Ball St. W 86 - 55 98% +19  3 - 0 +20 +10 A- A F +11 B+ B- A+
 Mon, Nov 17 257 SIU Edwardsville W 94 - 69 97% +12  4 - 0 +17 +26 A+ C A+ -7 C F D+
 Fri, Nov 21 12 BYU L 70 - 98 31% -12  4 - 1 -9 +1 C+ D+ B -9 B- A F
 Thu, Nov 27 65 Providence W 104 - 83 69% +14  5 - 1 +29 +16 A B A+ +10 B+ A+ B+
 Fri, Nov 28 45 TCU L 63 - 74 60% -11  5 - 2 +0 -6 F D+ F +6 C- A+ B+
 Wed, Dec 3 60 Northwestern W 85 - 73 77% +16  6 - 2 1 - 0 +18 +14 A+ D- A+ +4 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 102 Marquette W 96 - 76 87% +12  7 - 2 +22 +14 A+ F A+ +6 C- A+ D-
 Wed, Dec 10 14 @Nebraska L 60 - 90 24% -14  7 - 3 1 - 1 -9 -2 C- D+ A -7 D D+ B
 Fri, Dec 19 33 Villanova L 66 - 76 OT 49% -7  7 - 4 +4 +0 C+ A- D +3 A+ C F
 Mon, Dec 22 322 Central Michigan W 88 - 61 98% +15  8 - 4 +14 +12 A+ F B+ +3 B A+ F
 Tue, Dec 30 248 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 80 - 60 97% +14  9 - 4 +12 -3 C F A +14 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 5 Purdue L 73 - 89 33% -8  9 - 5 1 - 2 +2 +5 D+ A+ B -2 A+ B+ D-
 Tue, Jan 6 36 UCLA W 80 - 72 62% +12  10 - 5 2 - 2 +18 +10 B+ A- A+ +8 A+ B+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 1 @Michigan W 91 - 88 10% -2  11 - 5 3 - 2 +31 +30 A+ A+ A+ +1 B A+ C-
 Tue, Jan 13 71 @Minnesota W 78 - 75 60% -1  12 - 5 4 - 2 +14 +18 A+ C+ A+ -3 D- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 115 Rutgers W 96 - 87 89% +13  13 - 5 5 - 2 +9 +20 B A+ A+ -11 F C+ D
 Thu, Jan 22 116 @Penn St. W 98 - 71 76% +20  14 - 5 6 - 2 +33 +25 A+ F A+ +8 A+ A- F
 Sun, Jan 25 48 USC W 84 - 78 71%
 Wed, Jan 28 71 Minnesota W 77 - 68 79%
 Sat, Jan 31 30 Ohio St. W 81 - 79 58%
 Sat, Feb 7 37 @Indiana L 79 - 82 40%
 Tue, Feb 10 9 @Illinois L 75 - 85 18%
 Fri, Feb 13 11 Michigan St. L 72 - 75 38%
 Tue, Feb 17 30 @Ohio St. L 78 - 82 36%
 Sun, Feb 22 23 Iowa W 75 - 74 51%
 Wed, Feb 25 68 @Oregon W 79 - 76 59%
 Sat, Feb 28 47 @Washington L 79 - 80 49%
 Wed, Mar 4 100 Maryland W 85 - 73 86%
 Sat, Mar 7 5 @Purdue L 73 - 84 16%
Totals 20 - 11 12 - 8 +14 +9 A- C+ A+ +5 B- A- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 2.0 0.8 0.0 3.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.0 2.6 0.1 7.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 6.1 5.3 0.6 0.0 13.3 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 8.7 9.8 1.9 0.1 22.5 6th
7th 1.0 6.4 8.6 2.2 0.1 18.3 7th
8th 0.3 3.8 7.2 2.6 0.1 14.0 8th
9th 0.0 1.4 5.0 2.6 0.2 9.3 9th
10th 0.3 2.7 2.1 0.2 5.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 1.3 0.3 2.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.5 1.8 5.9 12.2 18.5 21.3 19.2 12.1 5.9 2.1 0.5 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 88.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 59.3% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
16-4 12.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.5% 100.0% 6.6% 93.4% 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.1% 100.0% 5.1% 94.9% 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 100.0%
15-5 5.9% 100.0% 3.5% 96.5% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 2.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 12.1% 99.7% 2.1% 97.6% 6.4 0.1 0.4 1.9 4.0 4.0 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.7%
13-7 19.2% 98.4% 1.2% 97.2% 7.3 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.3 6.0 5.4 2.5 0.6 0.0 0.3 98.4%
12-8 21.3% 94.1% 0.7% 93.4% 8.2 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.1 6.4 5.4 2.3 0.4 1.3 94.1%
11-9 18.5% 83.4% 0.5% 82.9% 9.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.8 4.6 3.8 1.7 3.1 83.3%
10-10 12.2% 60.7% 0.2% 60.5% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.5 2.9 0.0 4.8 60.6%
9-11 5.9% 27.8% 0.2% 27.6% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 0.1 4.2 27.6%
8-12 1.8% 4.2% 4.2% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.7 4.2%
7-13 0.5% 0.5
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 84.1% 1.1% 83.0% 7.8 15.9 83.9%