Maryland
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.3#11
Expected Predictive Rating+16.9#16
Pace73.5#54
Improvement+0.2#189

Offense
Total Offense+7.5#33
First Shot+5.5#49
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#70
Layup/Dunks+5.2#30
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#181
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#136
Freethrows-0.8#240
Improvement-3.0#312

Defense
Total Defense+10.7#7
First Shot+9.1#10
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#60
Layups/Dunks+2.5#86
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#307
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#21
Freethrows+3.5#9
Improvement+3.2#38
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.3% 2.1% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 13.8% 21.2% 2.6%
Top 4 Seed 81.9% 92.5% 65.9%
Top 6 Seed 99.6% 100.0% 98.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 3.6 3.2 4.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round92.6% 93.8% 90.8%
Sweet Sixteen58.6% 59.5% 57.1%
Elite Eight24.9% 26.3% 22.8%
Final Four10.8% 10.8% 10.8%
Championship Game4.1% 4.3% 3.9%
National Champion1.5% 1.4% 1.6%

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 28 - 7
Quad 26 - 115 - 8
Quad 33 - 017 - 8
Quad 48 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 235   Manhattan W 79-49 98%     1 - 0 +23.2 -2.0 +24.5
  Nov 08, 2024 259   Mount St. Mary's W 86-52 98%     2 - 0 +25.9 +10.3 +15.4
  Nov 11, 2024 322   Florida A&M W 84-53 99%     3 - 0 +18.6 +2.4 +15.5
  Nov 15, 2024 25   Marquette L 74-78 71%     3 - 1 +8.6 +10.4 -2.0
  Nov 19, 2024 356   Canisius W 108-37 99.6%    4 - 1 +53.6 +15.2 +32.4
  Nov 24, 2024 46   Villanova W 76-75 74%     5 - 1 +12.5 +15.9 -3.3
  Nov 27, 2024 224   Bucknell W 91-67 98%     6 - 1 +17.8 +10.0 +6.3
  Dec 01, 2024 327   Alcorn St. W 96-58 99%     7 - 1 +25.4 +14.3 +9.7
  Dec 04, 2024 37   Ohio St. W 83-59 77%     8 - 1 1 - 0 +34.5 +9.3 +23.8
  Dec 08, 2024 16   @ Purdue L 78-83 43%     8 - 2 1 - 1 +15.0 +11.9 +3.1
  Dec 17, 2024 326   St. Francis (PA) W 111-57 99%     9 - 2 +41.4 +29.4 +11.0
  Dec 21, 2024 102   Syracuse W 87-60 90%     10 - 2 +31.3 +9.6 +20.1
  Dec 28, 2024 360   Maryland Eastern Shore W 81-66 99.7%    11 - 2 -4.2 -0.3 -3.9
  Jan 02, 2025 104   @ Washington L 69-75 86%     11 - 3 1 - 2 +0.7 -1.4 +2.1
  Jan 05, 2025 34   @ Oregon L 79-83 57%     11 - 4 1 - 3 +12.4 +18.8 -6.7
  Jan 10, 2025 24   UCLA W 79-61 70%     12 - 4 2 - 3 +30.8 +17.1 +14.6
  Jan 13, 2025 86   Minnesota W 77-71 90%     13 - 4 3 - 3 +9.9 +5.6 +4.2
  Jan 16, 2025 51   @ Northwestern L 74-76 OT 67%     13 - 5 3 - 4 +11.6 +3.6 +8.2
  Jan 19, 2025 57   Nebraska W 69-66 85%     14 - 5 4 - 4 +10.3 +2.9 +7.5
  Jan 23, 2025 17   @ Illinois W 91-70 45%     15 - 5 5 - 4 +40.6 +15.1 +22.9
  Jan 26, 2025 42   @ Indiana W 79-78 64%     16 - 5 6 - 4 +15.6 +22.7 -6.9
  Jan 29, 2025 15   Wisconsin W 76-68 64%     17 - 5 7 - 4 +22.6 +10.7 +12.1
  Feb 06, 2025 37   @ Ohio St. L 70-73 59%     17 - 6 7 - 5 +13.1 +4.7 +8.3
  Feb 09, 2025 65   Rutgers W 90-81 87%     18 - 6 8 - 5 +14.9 +10.2 +3.9
  Feb 13, 2025 57   @ Nebraska W 83-75 70%     19 - 6 9 - 5 +20.8 +21.7 -0.5
  Feb 16, 2025 63   Iowa W 101-75 86%     20 - 6 10 - 5 +32.4 +17.9 +12.2
  Feb 20, 2025 62   USC W 88-71 86%     21 - 6 11 - 5 +23.5 +11.4 +11.2
  Feb 26, 2025 8   Michigan St. L 55-58 56%     21 - 7 11 - 6 +13.7 -6.4 +20.1
  Mar 01, 2025 58   @ Penn St. W 68-64 70%     22 - 7 12 - 6 +16.7 -0.3 +17.0
  Mar 05, 2025 30   @ Michigan W 71-65 55%     23 - 7 13 - 6 +23.0 +6.9 +16.0
  Mar 08, 2025 51   Northwestern W 74-61 83%     24 - 7 14 - 6 +21.1 +6.2 +15.1
Projected Record 24 - 7 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 100.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 100.0% 100.0% 19.3% 80.7% 3.6 1.3 12.5 36.2 31.9 13.8 3.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 19.3% 80.7% 3.6 1.3 12.5 36.2 31.9 13.8 3.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 19.3% 100.0% 2.6 5.0 40.2 48.6 6.1 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 17.2% 100.0% 3.1 1.5 15.6 54.3 25.6 2.9 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 23.7% 100.0% 3.7 0.3 4.4 35.8 42.8 14.4 2.1 0.1
Lose Out 39.8% 100.0% 4.2 0.1 2.5 22.6 40.6 24.7 8.3 1.0 0.0