Wagner
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-7.6#297
Expected Predictive Rating-7.5#280
Pace68.9#201
Improvement-2.7#335

Offense
Total Offense-5.1#308
First Shot-6.0#326
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#138
Layup/Dunks-4.3#310
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#131
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#222
Freethrows-1.2#247
Improvement-0.7#240

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#253
First Shot+0.5#152
After Offensive Rebounds-3.0#331
Layups/Dunks+2.1#101
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#228
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#130
Freethrows-2.9#325
Improvement-2.0#331
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.2% 18.2% 12.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.4 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 44.5% 51.5% 26.1%
.500 or above in Conference 83.6% 85.6% 78.0%
Conference Champion 22.6% 24.9% 16.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.7% 2.2% 3.9%
First Four13.0% 13.7% 11.1%
First Round10.0% 11.2% 6.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maryland Eastern Shore (Home) - 72.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 20 - 7
Quad 413 - 813 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 43 @Virginia Commonwealth L 74-103 3%     0 - 1 -14.4 +4.2 -16.3
  Fri, Nov 7 76 @Seton Hall L 61-68 6%     0 - 2 +3.5 +0.1 +2.7
  Tue, Nov 11 211 @Fordham L 61-63 24%     0 - 3 -2.1 -1.3 -1.1
  Sun, Nov 16 272 @Maryland Baltimore Co. L 70-71 OT 33%     0 - 4 -4.1 -11.0 +6.9
  Sat, Nov 22 85 @Georgetown L 75-92 7%     0 - 5 -7.7 +0.8 -7.4
  Wed, Nov 26 310 @Manhattan W 103-101 OT 41%     1 - 5 -3.2 +13.9 -17.3
  Tue, Dec 2 86 @Maryland L 63-89 7%     1 - 6 -16.9 -7.8 -7.7
  Wed, Dec 17 341 Maryland Eastern Shore W 67-60 73%    
  Fri, Jan 2 350 @Chicago St. W 74-73 55%    
  Sun, Jan 4 338 Stonehill W 71-65 72%    
  Thu, Jan 8 356 St. Francis (PA) W 77-68 80%    
  Sat, Jan 10 328 Mercyhurst W 70-65 68%    
  Sat, Jan 17 346 @New Haven W 67-66 52%    
  Mon, Jan 19 362 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 77-73 65%    
  Fri, Jan 23 321 @Le Moyne L 76-77 44%    
  Sun, Jan 25 230 @LIU Brooklyn L 69-76 27%    
  Thu, Jan 29 244 Central Connecticut St. L 67-68 49%    
  Sat, Jan 31 362 Fairleigh Dickinson W 80-70 82%    
  Thu, Feb 5 321 Le Moyne W 79-74 66%    
  Sat, Feb 7 244 @Central Connecticut St. L 65-71 29%    
  Thu, Feb 12 230 LIU Brooklyn L 72-73 47%    
  Sat, Feb 14 338 @Stonehill W 68-67 52%    
  Thu, Feb 19 328 @Mercyhurst L 67-68 47%    
  Sat, Feb 21 356 @St. Francis (PA) W 74-71 61%    
  Thu, Feb 26 346 New Haven W 70-63 72%    
  Sat, Feb 28 350 Chicago St. W 77-70 74%    
Projected Record 12 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 3.6 5.9 5.5 3.7 1.8 21.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.9 7.0 4.0 1.3 0.3 20.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 6.2 5.8 1.8 0.2 16.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 5.2 4.2 0.9 0.1 11.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.1 3.8 0.6 0.0 9.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.7 3.4 0.7 0.0 7.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.6 0.8 0.0 5.1 7th
8th 0.2 0.9 1.9 0.6 0.1 3.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.0 2.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.4 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.4 4.6 6.6 9.8 11.7 13.1 13.7 12.5 10.1 6.8 4.1 1.8 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.8    1.8 0.1
15-1 91.5% 3.7    3.3 0.5
14-2 81.1% 5.5    4.3 1.3 0.0
13-3 58.5% 5.9    3.2 2.4 0.4 0.0
12-4 28.8% 3.6    1.3 1.6 0.6 0.1
11-5 7.5% 1.0    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0
10-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 21.8% 21.8 13.9 6.2 1.4 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.8% 45.9% 45.9% 15.5 0.0 0.4 0.4 1.0
15-1 4.1% 41.3% 41.3% 15.9 0.2 1.4 2.4
14-2 6.8% 33.1% 33.1% 15.9 0.1 2.1 4.6
13-3 10.1% 28.6% 28.6% 16.0 0.0 2.9 7.2
12-4 12.5% 21.8% 21.8% 16.0 0.0 2.7 9.7
11-5 13.7% 15.8% 15.8% 16.0 2.2 11.5
10-6 13.1% 11.4% 11.4% 16.0 1.5 11.6
9-7 11.7% 8.8% 8.8% 16.0 1.0 10.7
8-8 9.8% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 0.5 9.2
7-9 6.6% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.3 6.3
6-10 4.6% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.2 4.4
5-11 2.4% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 2.3
4-12 1.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.3
3-13 0.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.5
2-14 0.2% 0.2
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 16.2% 16.2% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.8 15.4 83.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 13.0 25.0 50.0 25.0