Wagner
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.3 #326
Expected Predictive Rating -14.9 #349
Pace 64.5 #294
Improvement -5.3 #356

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #273 D+ B- D D- C-
Defense #347 D C F F D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #167 0.96 #356 -3.7 #302
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #118 0.81 #92 +1.8 #90
Three Pointers 38% #250 1.09 #82 -0.2 #187
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #242 -2.2 #242
Freethrows 14.7 #303 70% #268 10.3 #314
Second Chance 32.4% #134 1.14 #64 0.37 #77
Turnovers 18.1% #282
Total Offense -3.6 #273

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #68 1.11 #120 -1.5 #228
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #260 0.83 #289 +0.3 #169
Three Pointers 39% #236 1.17 #345 -2.1 #278
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #283 -3.3 #284
Freethrows 21.8 #343 75% #285 16.4 #350
Second Chance 31.4% #221 1.06 #211 0.33 #217
Turnovers 13.2% #343
Total Defense -6.7 #347

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.7% #233 1.3% #285
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.6% #231 5.1% #271
Possession Length 18.3 #271 14.9 #1
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #318 0.23 #337
Improvement -0.3 #195 -5.0 #359

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.0% 9.5% 7.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 2.1% 5.4% 0.9%
.500 or above in Conference 27.3% 47.9% 19.8%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 18.9% 8.1% 22.8%
First Four7.7% 8.9% 7.3%
First Round3.9% 5.0% 3.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Le Moyne (Away) - 26.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 20 - 6
Quad 49 - 129 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 55 @Virginia Commonwealth L 74 - 103 2% -12  0 - 1 -16 +1 D C+ D- -14 C- F D
 Fri, Nov 7 56 @Seton Hall L 61 - 68 2% -3  0 - 2 +6 +4 A+ A+ F +1 B- C C+
 Tue, Nov 11 193 @Fordham L 61 - 63 15% +2  0 - 3 -1 +1 F A+ D- -2 B+ C- F
 Sun, Nov 16 275 @Maryland Baltimore Co. L 70 - 71 OT 25% +1  0 - 4 -4 -12 F C- F +7 A+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 93 @Georgetown L 75 - 92 5% -11  0 - 5 -8 +2 C+ D+ F -9 F C D+
 Wed, Nov 26 327 @Manhattan W 103 - 101 OT 39% -8  1 - 5 -5 +14 A+ A- D -19 D- F F
 Tue, Dec 2 100 @Maryland L 63 - 89 5% -9  1 - 6 -18 -9 F F F -8 B C F
 Wed, Dec 17 330 Maryland Eastern Shore W 78 - 64 62% +6  2 - 6 +0 +7 C- A+ A+ -5 F A+ C+
 Fri, Jan 2 357 @Chicago St. W 79 - 72 53% +4  3 - 6 1 - 0 -4 +9 D B+ A+ -12 C B- F
 Sun, Jan 4 339 Stonehill L 60 - 69 65% -2  3 - 7 1 - 1 -23 -7 F B F -18 F C F
 Thu, Jan 8 358 St. Francis (PA) L 69 - 71 76% +1  3 - 8 1 - 2 -20 -7 F C+ D -13 F D- D
 Sat, Jan 10 306 Mercyhurst L 69 - 70 54% +1  3 - 9 1 - 3 -12 -1 C C+ C -11 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 331 @New Haven L 74 - 80 40% -8  3 - 10 1 - 4 -14 +12 A+ A+ F -26 F A+ F
 Mon, Jan 19 348 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 61 - 68 46% -4  3 - 11 1 - 5 -16 -3 F C B -14 D- F A+
 Fri, Jan 23 278 @Le Moyne L 71 - 78 27%
 Sun, Jan 25 222 @LIU Brooklyn L 68 - 78 18%
 Thu, Jan 29 277 Central Connecticut St. L 72 - 73 47%
 Sat, Jan 31 348 Fairleigh Dickinson W 74 - 69 68%
 Thu, Feb 5 278 Le Moyne L 74 - 75 47%
 Sat, Feb 7 277 @Central Connecticut St. L 69 - 76 26%
 Thu, Feb 12 222 LIU Brooklyn L 71 - 75 36%
 Sat, Feb 14 339 @Stonehill L 66 - 68 42%
 Thu, Feb 19 306 @Mercyhurst L 65 - 70 32%
 Sat, Feb 21 358 @St. Francis (PA) W 74 - 73 56%
 Thu, Feb 26 331 New Haven W 68 - 65 62%
 Sat, Feb 28 357 Chicago St. W 76 - 69 73%
Totals 8 - 18 6 - 12 -10 -4 D+ B- D -7 D C F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.7 0.0 2.2 3rd
4th 0.3 2.1 1.9 0.1 4.4 4th
5th 0.3 2.8 3.9 0.7 7.8 5th
6th 0.3 4.0 6.2 2.0 0.0 12.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 4.5 8.9 3.6 0.2 17.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 5.1 10.1 5.2 0.4 0.0 21.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.7 6.6 9.7 4.5 0.7 0.0 23.4 9th
10th 0.2 1.4 3.3 3.5 1.3 0.2 9.8 10th
Total 0.2 1.6 5.0 10.7 16.6 19.5 19.1 13.3 8.4 3.9 1.4 0.3 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 50.0% 0.0    0.0
12-4 31.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-5 1.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-4 0.3% 24.1% 24.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.2
11-5 1.4% 26.6% 26.6% 16.0 0.4 1.0
10-6 3.9% 16.8% 16.8% 16.0 0.7 3.3
9-7 8.4% 14.5% 14.5% 16.0 1.2 7.2
8-8 13.3% 10.8% 10.8% 16.0 1.4 11.9
7-9 19.1% 7.7% 7.7% 16.0 1.5 17.6
6-10 19.5% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 1.3 18.2
5-11 16.6% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.9 15.7
4-12 10.7% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.4 10.3
3-13 5.0% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.1 4.9
2-14 1.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.6
1-15 0.2% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
0-16
Total 100% 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 16.0 92.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%