Wagner
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.9 331
Expected Predictive Rating -13.7 349
Pace 63.8 311
Improvement -5.0 348

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ #288 D+ C+ D D C
Defense D- #340 D C- D- F+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 128 49% 355 -2.6 273
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 153 41% 81 +1.1 115
Three Pointers 38% 247 34% 195 -1.8 246
1st FG Attempt 0.96 273 -3.2 273
Second Chance 31.4% 158 1.11 71 0.35 102
Turnovers 18.9% 299
Freethrows 0.27 292 70% 258 0.19 301
Total Offense -4.3 288

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 26 57% 168 -3.4 299
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 274 40% 263 +0.7 129
Three Pointers 38% 274 39% 353 -1.3 246
1st FG Attempt 1.10 305 -4.0 305
Second Chance 30.9% 198 1.07 259 0.33 237
Turnovers 14.1% 331
Freethrows 0.39 350 73% 236 0.28 351
Total Defense -6.7 340

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.0 198 +0.8 318
Shot Type Accuracy -3.1 295 +3.1 296
Possession Length 18.4 294 16.7 78
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 317 0.21 303
Improvement -2.2 #301 -2.8 #313

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6% 7% 5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 13% 29% 5%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 31% 16% 38%
First Four6% 7% 5%
First Round3% 4% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: LIU Brooklyn (Home) - 31.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 30 - 6
Quad 49 - 129 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 51 @Virginia Commonwealth L 74 - 103 2% -12  1% 0 - 1 F+ -15 C- -2 D+ C D F+ -11 C- F D
 Fri, Nov 7 53 @Seton Hall L 61 - 68 2% -3  23% 0 - 2 B- +6 C +1 A A- F B +4 B- C B-
 Tue, Nov 11 157 @Fordham L 61 - 63 10% +2  56% 0 - 3 C +1 C -0 D- A C- C+ +1 B+ C- F
 Sun, Nov 16 259 @Maryland Baltimore Co. L 70 - 71 OT 21% +1  51% 0 - 4 C- -4 F -12 F C F A- +9 A+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 76 @Georgetown L 75 - 92 3% -11  10% 0 - 5 D+ -6 C +0 B- C F D -6 D+ C- D+
 Wed, Nov 26 323 @Manhattan W 103 - 101 OT 36% -8  6% 1 - 5 D+ -5 A +11 A+ C+ D- F -16 F+ F F+
 Tue, Dec 2 104 @Maryland L 63 - 89 5% -9  9% 1 - 6 F -19 F -13 F F+ F D+ -5 B C+ F
 Wed, Dec 17 348 Maryland Eastern Shore W 78 - 64 67% +6  94% 2 - 6 C -1 B- +4 D A A+ D+ -4 F A+ C
 Fri, Jan 2 353 @Chicago St. W 79 - 72 50% +4  93% 3 - 6 1 - 0 C- -4 B +5 D- B+ A+ D- -9 C C+ F
 Sun, Jan 4 330 Stonehill L 60 - 69 61% -2  35% 3 - 7 1 - 1 F -23 D- -8 D- B F F -17 F C- F
 Thu, Jan 8 355 St. Francis (PA) L 69 - 71 73% +1  49% 3 - 8 1 - 2 F -19 F -10 F C+ D+ F+ -9 D- D D+
 Sat, Jan 10 304 Mercyhurst L 69 - 70 51% +1  57% 3 - 9 1 - 3 D- -12 D -5 C- C+ C D- -8 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 334 @New Haven L 74 - 80 40% -8  0% 3 - 10 1 - 4 D- -14 A- +9 A A F F -24 F A F
 Mon, Jan 19 329 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 61 - 68 38% -4  3% 3 - 11 1 - 5 F+ -15 D -6 F C B- F+ -10 D F A+
 Fri, Jan 23 303 @Le Moyne L 67 - 69 29% +2  65% 3 - 12 1 - 6 D+ -7 C- -1 B+ D+ F D -6 A F F
 Thu, Jan 29 294 Central Connecticut St. L 55 - 62 49% -2  29% 3 - 13 1 - 7 F -18 F -18 F C C+ C -1 C B D+
 Sat, Jan 31 329 Fairleigh Dickinson W 75 - 72 OT 61% +1  56% 4 - 13 2 - 7 D -11 D -6 F C+ B D+ -5 F A+ D
 Thu, Feb 5 303 Le Moyne W 79 - 78 51% +1  46% 5 - 13 3 - 7 D -10 C -0 A- B F F+ -10 F B C+
 Sat, Feb 7 294 @Central Connecticut St. L 67 - 84 27% -9  2% 5 - 14 3 - 8 F -22 D- -8 F B- D+ F -15 F F D+
 Thu, Feb 12 207 LIU Brooklyn L 69 - 74 31%
 Sat, Feb 14 330 @Stonehill L 64 - 67 39%
 Mon, Feb 16 207 @LIU Brooklyn L 66 - 77 15%
 Thu, Feb 19 304 @Mercyhurst L 64 - 70 30%
 Sat, Feb 21 355 @St. Francis (PA) W 76 - 75 51%
 Thu, Feb 26 334 New Haven W 67 - 64 62%
 Sat, Feb 28 353 Chicago St. W 75 - 69 71%
Totals 8 - 18 6 - 12 -11 D+ -4 D+ C+ D D- -7 D C- D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ F+ B- C D+ 40% 22% 38% C D+ C+ B- C+ D D D+ D D- C D+ F+ D 45% 18% 38% D D C C- C- D- F+ C- F+
1.03 49% 41% 34% -3 0 0.96 31% 1.1 .35 19% .27 70% .19 1.18 57% 40% 39% +3 +1 1.10 31% 1.1 .33 14% .39 73% .20
Nov
3		 Virginia Commonwealth C- F C- A+ D+ 48% 21% 31% C+ D+ B- D C D A C- A F+ C- A+ C- C 47% 2% 51% F C- F+ F F D F A- D
0.97 36% 36% 44% -6 +1 0.90 33% 0.9 .29 20% .39 71% .28 1.35 62% 0% 36% +2 +3 1.13 41% 1.5 .62 13% .47 68% .32
Nov
7		 Seton Hall C F A+ A+ A 33% 14% 53% C A C+ A+ A- F F F F B D+ A+ B B- 46% 17% 37% D B- F A+ C B- F A+ B-
0.95 29% 50% 48% +3 0 1.09 31% 1.2 .38 31% .27 42% .11 1.05 62% 13% 29% -5 +1 0.93 50% 0.8 .38 17% .45 50% .22
Nov
11		 Fordham C F B+ B- D- 27% 29% 45% D+ D- B+ A- A C- F F F C+ A+ F A- A- 48% 20% 33% D- B+ A+ F C- F F C F
1.02 23% 43% 36% -6 -2 0.86 34% 1.2 .42 17% .12 50% .06 1.05 36% 67% 27% -8 +1 0.87 26% 1.3 .34 12% .40 71% .28
Nov
16		 Maryland Baltimore Co. F F A+ F F 50% 24% 26% C F D+ B C F B D- C+ A- B C- A+ A+ 35% 27% 38% B A+ F F F A+ F B+ F
0.92 44% 54% 21% -8 0 0.87 27% 1.2 .32 20% .26 63% .16 0.94 53% 38% 17% -11 -1 0.77 32% 1.3 .42 24% .55 69% .38
Nov
22		 Georgetown C C- C- B- C+ 37% 21% 42% B- B- C- C+ C F B C+ B D D+ B- F+ D 42% 25% 33% C D+ B+ F C- D+ F F F
1.00 53% 36% 36% -1 0 1.00 28% 1.0 .28 21% .32 74% .24 1.23 61% 36% 39% +3 0 1.07 29% 1.4 .40 12% .43 89% .38
Nov
26		 Manhattan A B- A A+ A+ 60% 12% 29% A A+ A F+ C+ D- A+ C A+ F A+ F F F+ 37% 23% 40% C F+ F F+ F F+ F B- F
1.33 65% 50% 60% +17 +3 1.40 48% 0.9 .45 18% .42 74% .31 1.30 33% 54% 48% +3 0 1.07 36% 1.2 .43 12% .51 77% .39
Dec
2		 Maryland F F+ B F F 33% 23% 44% D+ F D+ F F+ F B A+ A D+ C A+ A+ A- 50% 12% 38% F B F+ A C+ F F C+ F
0.85 47% 42% 26% -8 -1 0.85 24% 0.7 .16 24% .32 83% .27 1.20 58% 17% 25% -8 +2 0.90 42% 0.9 .38 11% .68 71% .49
Dec
17		 Maryland Eastern Shore B- F+ A- D+ D 34% 19% 47% D+ D D- A+ A A+ A+ F B D+ F F B- F 42% 20% 38% D- F B- A+ A+ C D- A C-
1.20 50% 44% 32% -3 0 0.96 26% 2.0 .51 8% .47 61% .28 0.98 68% 67% 29% +8 0 1.18 27% 0.3 .07 23% .28 64% .18
Jan
2		 Chicago St. B F D+ A+ D 45% 23% 32% D D- C A B+ A+ A+ D+ A+ D- A+ A F C+ 47% 26% 26% F C C- B+ C+ F F F F
1.23 48% 36% 47% +1 0 1.04 36% 1.3 .48 12% .54 73% .39 1.12 36% 29% 50% -6 0 0.89 30% 0.8 .23 8% .46 85% .39
Jan
4		 Stonehill D- F D+ A D- 52% 24% 24% C+ D- B+ C B F F A+ D+ F B+ F F F 47% 17% 36% D F C- C- C- F F A- F
0.98 42% 33% 42% -6 +1 0.90 32% 1.1 .35 16% .18 100% .18 1.13 45% 50% 41% 0 +1 1.04 29% 0.9 .26 13% .36 63% .23
Jan
8		 St. Francis (PA) F A+ F F F 35% 26% 39% F+ F A- F+ C+ D+ C F D+ F+ D C- C D 40% 17% 44% F D- D+ D- D D+ F F F
1.06 88% 17% 22% -2 -1 0.96 42% 1.0 .42 20% .37 63% .23 1.09 63% 38% 33% +2 +1 1.06 28% 1.1 .31 17% .35 84% .30
Jan
10		 Mercyhurst D F A+ A+ D+ 53% 8% 39% A- C- D+ A C+ C D- F F D- C D F F+ 51% 22% 27% F F A+ A+ A+ F F F F
1.07 35% 50% 47% -4 +3 1.00 31% 1.3 .38 19% .30 56% .17 1.08 56% 45% 38% +2 +1 1.08 4% 0.0 .00 8% .35 81% .28
Jan
17		 New Haven A- A- B+ A+ A+ 36% 20% 44% D+ A A+ F+ A F F D F F F+ A+ F F 28% 15% 57% D+ F C A+ A F D+ F F
1.22 69% 44% 45% +13 0 1.27 50% 0.9 .46 28% .16 71% .11 1.32 69% 14% 58% +20 0 1.41 21% 0.4 .08 15% .27 93% .25
Jan
19		 Fairleigh Dickinson D D+ C- F+ F 36% 36% 29% F F F+ A+ C B- D+ A+ B F+ A+ F F F 19% 44% 36% A+ D F F F A+ F F+ F
1.05 56% 38% 31% -2 -2 0.93 19% 1.4 .27 14% .32 88% .28 1.17 43% 50% 38% +5 -4 1.03 41% 1.1 .45 24% .57 76% .43
Jan
23		 Le Moyne C- B- A- A- B+ 45% 16% 39% B- B+ C F+ D+ F F F F D A A+ B+ A+ 45% 14% 40% D+ A F D F F F C+ F
1.10 60% 43% 41% +6 +1 1.16 33% 0.9 .30 20% .25 58% .14 1.13 47% 17% 29% -11 +1 0.83 38% 1.1 .44 13% .64 71% .45
Jan
29		 Central Connecticut St. F F A+ F F 40% 7% 53% B- F C C+ C C+ A+ F A+ C D A+ B+ B 43% 13% 43% F C A+ F B D+ D- B- D
0.92 41% 67% 17% -18 +2 0.70 31% 1.0 .31 12% .41 68% .28 1.03 65% 17% 30% -2 +1 1.00 18% 1.2 .21 15% .31 75% .24
Jan
31		 Fairleigh Dickinson D F F B- F 46% 13% 40% B+ F C+ C+ C+ B B A+ A D+ B- F F F 52% 9% 39% F F A+ A+ A+ D A- A+ A+
1.09 42% 29% 38% -6 +1 0.92 30% 1.0 .30 13% .39 83% .32 1.05 54% 60% 48% +8 +2 1.22 21% 0.4 .09 16% .19 36% .07
Feb
5		 Le Moyne C A+ B+ B- A- 43% 22% 35% C- A- D A+ B F B A- B+ F+ F+ F A- F 54% 15% 30% D- F B+ C+ B C+ D+ D D
1.15 70% 40% 38% +8 0 1.17 27% 1.6 .42 20% .37 80% .29 1.14 68% 86% 29% +10 +2 1.26 21% 1.0 .21 20% .37 75% .28
Feb
7		 Central Connecticut St. D- F B+ F F 41% 20% 39% D+ F C A- B- D+ C- F D+ F F A F F 36% 43% 21% B+ F D- F F D+ F C F
1.02 39% 45% 27% -10 0 0.82 31% 1.2 .36 14% .25 71% .18 1.28 87% 28% 56% +13 -3 1.21 32% 1.7 .55 15% .56 77% .43



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 0.1 1.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.7 1.1 0.0 2.9 5th
6th 0.0 1.5 4.4 0.2 6.2 6th
7th 2.2 9.2 2.9 0.0 14.3 7th
8th 0.1 5.8 19.9 11.0 0.5 37.1 8th
9th 3.0 12.3 6.6 0.3 22.3 9th
10th 2.1 8.4 4.7 0.4 15.6 10th
Total 2.1 11.5 22.8 29.1 22.0 9.7 2.6 0.3 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.3% 15.6% 15.6% 16.0 0.1 0.3
9-7 2.6% 9.7% 9.7% 16.0 0.3 2.3
8-8 9.7% 9.8% 9.8% 16.0 1.0 8.7
7-9 22.0% 6.9% 6.9% 16.0 1.5 20.5
6-10 29.1% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 1.7 27.4
5-11 22.8% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 1.0 21.8
4-12 11.5% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.5 11.0
3-13 2.1% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 2.0
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 16.0 94.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.4%