Wagner
Northeast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.2#308
Expected Predictive Rating-3.6#232
Pace57.0#363
Improvement-0.6#227

Offense
Total Offense-9.0#358
First Shot-9.0#358
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#183
Layup/Dunks-7.8#357
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#51
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#232
Freethrows-1.9#285
Improvement+0.5#138

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#147
First Shot-1.6#227
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#33
Layups/Dunks+1.0#132
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#103
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#266
Freethrows-1.6#288
Improvement-1.1#266
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.1% 15.1% 10.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 65.4% 70.8% 43.8%
.500 or above in Conference 75.2% 80.1% 55.6%
Conference Champion 16.9% 19.3% 7.2%
Last Place in Conference 4.6% 2.8% 11.6%
First Four10.8% 11.3% 9.2%
First Round7.8% 8.6% 4.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chicago St. (Home) - 80.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 10 - 5
Quad 414 - 814 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 65   @ Rutgers L 52-75 4%     0 - 1 -11.3 -13.9 +2.2
  Nov 13, 2024 12   @ St. John's L 45-66 1%     0 - 2 -1.8 -14.7 +11.0
  Nov 16, 2024 116   @ Seton Hall L 28-54 10%     0 - 3 -20.2 -28.7 +0.3
  Nov 19, 2024 256   @ Boston University W 60-58 28%     1 - 3 -0.2 -3.5 +3.6
  Nov 26, 2024 71   @ Georgetown L 41-66 5%     1 - 4 -14.0 -19.3 +1.4
  Dec 04, 2024 363   Coppin St. W 65-52 88%     2 - 4 -8.2 +0.1 -5.3
  Dec 08, 2024 359   @ Maryland Eastern Shore W 63-61 61%     3 - 4 -9.2 -5.6 -3.3
  Dec 14, 2024 352   @ NJIT W 50-43 55%     4 - 4 -2.5 -19.5 +17.7
  Dec 18, 2024 298   Manhattan L 66-80 57%     4 - 5 -24.1 -7.4 -18.3
  Jan 03, 2025 360   Chicago St. W 65-56 80%    
  Jan 05, 2025 333   Fairleigh Dickinson W 69-64 69%    
  Jan 10, 2025 223   @ Central Connecticut St. L 53-61 23%    
  Jan 18, 2025 358   Mercyhurst W 62-53 79%    
  Jan 20, 2025 336   St. Francis (PA) W 65-59 70%    
  Jan 24, 2025 358   @ Mercyhurst W 59-56 60%    
  Jan 26, 2025 336   @ St. Francis (PA) L 61-62 49%    
  Jan 30, 2025 322   @ Stonehill L 58-60 42%    
  Feb 01, 2025 332   Le Moyne W 64-59 68%    
  Feb 06, 2025 342   LIU Brooklyn W 63-57 71%    
  Feb 08, 2025 333   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 66-67 46%    
  Feb 13, 2025 332   @ Le Moyne L 61-62 46%    
  Feb 20, 2025 322   Stonehill W 61-57 64%    
  Feb 22, 2025 360   @ Chicago St. W 62-59 61%    
  Feb 27, 2025 342   @ LIU Brooklyn W 61-60 50%    
  Mar 01, 2025 223   Central Connecticut St. L 56-58 42%    
Projected Record 13 - 12 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.0 4.9 4.6 2.6 0.9 0.2 16.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 6.7 7.8 4.2 1.3 0.1 22.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.6 6.9 6.5 1.9 0.3 0.0 17.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 5.9 5.3 1.1 0.0 13.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 4.0 4.9 1.0 0.0 10.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.8 4.1 0.9 0.0 8.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.9 0.9 0.0 5.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.9 0.7 0.0 3.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.3 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 4.2 7.1 10.2 13.3 15.1 15.1 12.8 9.3 5.9 2.7 0.9 0.2 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
15-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
14-2 95.0% 2.6    2.3 0.3
13-3 78.6% 4.6    3.3 1.2 0.1
12-4 52.2% 4.9    2.4 2.1 0.3 0.0
11-5 23.6% 3.0    0.8 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
10-6 4.6% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 16.9% 16.9 10.0 5.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.2% 45.1% 45.1% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-1 0.9% 42.7% 42.7% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.5
14-2 2.7% 37.2% 37.2% 15.5 0.1 0.4 0.5 1.7
13-3 5.9% 29.0% 29.0% 15.9 0.2 1.5 4.2
12-4 9.3% 24.0% 24.0% 15.9 0.1 2.1 7.1
11-5 12.8% 18.5% 18.5% 16.0 0.0 2.3 10.4
10-6 15.1% 15.3% 15.3% 16.0 0.0 2.3 12.8
9-7 15.1% 10.8% 10.8% 16.0 1.6 13.5
8-8 13.3% 9.1% 9.1% 16.0 1.2 12.1
7-9 10.2% 7.0% 7.0% 16.0 0.7 9.5
6-10 7.1% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.4 6.7
5-11 4.2% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.1 4.1
4-12 2.1% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 2.1
3-13 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.9
2-14 0.3% 0.3
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.1% 14.1% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 12.8 85.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 13.3 10.8 54.1 32.4 2.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0%