Wagner
Northeast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.3#335
Expected Predictive Rating-9.8#320
Pace56.5#361
Improvement-0.1#200

Offense
Total Offense-7.8#349
First Shot-7.3#348
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#217
Layup/Dunks-7.7#359
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#22
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#228
Freethrows-1.7#284
Improvement+3.9#20

Defense
Total Defense-3.6#278
First Shot-5.7#339
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#36
Layups/Dunks-0.8#204
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#147
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#311
Freethrows-2.0#310
Improvement-4.0#345
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.0% 6.9% 4.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 21.6% 30.3% 9.7%
.500 or above in Conference 37.6% 51.0% 19.3%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 12.6% 5.9% 21.6%
First Four5.9% 6.8% 4.7%
First Round2.0% 2.2% 1.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: LIU Brooklyn (Home) - 57.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 21 - 5
Quad 411 - 1012 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 63   @ Rutgers L 52-75 3%     0 - 1 -11.6 -14.3 +2.2
  Nov 13, 2024 14   @ St. John's L 45-66 1%     0 - 2 -1.4 -10.1 +6.8
  Nov 16, 2024 147   @ Seton Hall L 28-54 9%     0 - 3 -22.5 -32.3 +1.6
  Nov 19, 2024 294   @ Boston University W 60-58 26%     1 - 3 -2.8 -3.6 +1.1
  Nov 26, 2024 85   @ Georgetown L 41-66 4%     1 - 4 -15.5 -17.8 -1.6
  Dec 04, 2024 362   Coppin St. W 65-52 80%     2 - 4 -7.2 +1.6 -5.8
  Dec 08, 2024 361   @ Maryland Eastern Shore W 63-61 61%     3 - 4 -12.2 -6.0 -5.9
  Dec 14, 2024 344   @ NJIT W 50-43 42%     4 - 4 -2.3 -18.9 +17.2
  Dec 18, 2024 271   Manhattan L 66-80 40%     4 - 5 -22.7 -6.3 -17.8
  Jan 03, 2025 359   Chicago St. L 52-64 70%     4 - 6 0 - 1 -28.7 -16.4 -14.2
  Jan 05, 2025 322   Fairleigh Dickinson L 59-71 54%     4 - 7 0 - 2 -24.4 -19.4 -5.1
  Jan 10, 2025 209   @ Central Connecticut St. W 62-57 15%     5 - 7 1 - 2 +5.0 +3.2 +2.6
  Jan 18, 2025 353   Mercyhurst L 65-69 66%     5 - 8 1 - 3 -19.6 -5.2 -14.9
  Jan 20, 2025 336   St. Francis (PA) W 70-68 2OT 60%     6 - 8 2 - 3 -12.0 -10.6 -1.4
  Jan 24, 2025 353   @ Mercyhurst L 66-71 47%     6 - 9 2 - 4 -15.6 +1.2 -17.7
  Jan 26, 2025 336   @ St. Francis (PA) W 68-66 41%     7 - 9 3 - 4 -7.0 +1.8 -8.5
  Jan 30, 2025 321   @ Stonehill L 61-73 35%     7 - 10 3 - 5 -19.2 -4.4 -17.0
  Feb 01, 2025 355   Le Moyne W 73-61 67%     8 - 10 4 - 5 -3.9 +1.3 -3.5
  Feb 06, 2025 327   LIU Brooklyn W 59-58 58%    
  Feb 08, 2025 322   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 63-67 34%    
  Feb 13, 2025 355   @ Le Moyne L 65-66 46%    
  Feb 20, 2025 321   Stonehill W 62-61 55%    
  Feb 22, 2025 359   @ Chicago St. W 62-61 50%    
  Feb 27, 2025 327   @ LIU Brooklyn L 57-61 35%    
  Mar 01, 2025 209   Central Connecticut St. L 56-62 29%    
Projected Record 11 - 14 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1st
2nd 0.3 3.9 3.2 0.4 7.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 4.8 6.2 0.5 11.6 3rd
4th 2.2 10.6 1.5 0.0 14.2 4th
5th 0.4 11.0 5.4 0.1 16.9 5th
6th 0.1 6.2 11.4 0.6 18.2 6th
7th 0.0 2.7 11.6 2.4 16.6 7th
8th 0.8 6.2 3.5 0.0 10.5 8th
9th 1.8 2.2 0.1 4.0 9th
Total 2.5 11.1 21.8 27.0 21.7 11.6 3.8 0.5 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 21.6% 0.1    0.0 0.1
10-6 2.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.5% 17.6% 17.6% 16.0 0.1 0.4
10-6 3.8% 13.8% 13.8% 16.0 0.5 3.3
9-7 11.6% 9.6% 9.6% 16.0 1.1 10.5
8-8 21.7% 7.5% 7.5% 16.0 1.6 20.1
7-9 27.0% 6.2% 6.2% 16.0 1.7 25.3
6-10 21.8% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.8 21.0
5-11 11.1% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 11.0
4-12 2.5% 2.5
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 16.0 6.0 94.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.4%