Illinois
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +20.4 #9
Expected Predictive Rating +20.5 #13
Pace 67.6 #221
Improvement +0.0 #186

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #3 A- A+ A C+ B-
Defense #21 A+ A- F A+ A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #282 1.36 #16 +1.6 #123
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #303 0.92 #26 -1.1 #232
Three Pointers 51% #23 1.06 #117 +6.0 #24
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #31 +6.4 #31
Freethrows 16.7 #224 80% #5 13.4 #132
Second Chance 41.4% #4 1.23 #17 0.51 #2
Turnovers 13.3% #20
Total Offense +12.7 #3

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 25% #361 1.00 #22 +9.7 #3
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% #4 0.62 #18 -2.0 #325
Three Pointers 43% #116 0.91 #60 +1.3 #132
1st FG Attempt 0.84 #5 +9.0 #5
Freethrows 9.2 #2 73% #194 6.7 #2
Second Chance 25.1% #21 0.99 #110 0.25 #31
Turnovers 12.6% #351
Total Defense +7.7 #21

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.0% #119 -4.7% #3
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 11.5% #28 -13.5% #12
Possession Length 17.3 #172 18.3 #311
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #297 0.11 #27
Improvement +0.4 #157 -0.4 #213

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.8% 3.3% 0.9%
#1 Seed 13.5% 21.6% 8.8%
Top 2 Seed 36.6% 51.4% 28.1%
Top 4 Seed 84.5% 92.7% 79.8%
Top 6 Seed 98.6% 99.7% 98.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 3.1 2.6 3.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 20.4% 34.8% 12.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round95.4% 96.8% 94.6%
Sweet Sixteen65.3% 69.3% 63.0%
Elite Eight35.8% 40.1% 33.3%
Final Four18.4% 21.2% 16.7%
Championship Game9.2% 11.4% 8.0%
National Champion4.3% 5.6% 3.5%

Next Game: Purdue (Away) - 36.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 66 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 110 - 7
Quad 26 - 116 - 8
Quad 34 - 020 - 8
Quad 46 - 026 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 325 Jackson St. W 113 - 55 99% +33  1 - 0 +45 +25 A+ A+ C+ +16 A+ A+ F
 Fri, Nov 7 225 Florida Gulf Coast W 113 - 70 99% +31  2 - 0 +36 +27 A+ A+ A+ +6 A+ A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 15 Texas Tech W 81 - 77 70% +4  3 - 0 +19 +12 A- A+ D+ +7 C+ A+ A
 Fri, Nov 14 199 Colgate W 84 - 65 98% +11  4 - 0 +13 +11 F A+ A+ +3 A A- F
 Wed, Nov 19 17 Alabama L 86 - 90 60% -1  4 - 1 +14 +9 A- A+ C+ +6 B+ C+ C+
 Sat, Nov 22 222 LIU Brooklyn W 98 - 58 99% +26  5 - 1 +33 +21 A+ A+ C+ +12 B A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 218 UT Rio Grande Valley W 87 - 73 99% +8  6 - 1 +8 +12 A+ B- C+ -5 A- C F
 Fri, Nov 28 7 Connecticut L 61 - 74 50% -10  6 - 2 +7 +3 D+ C A+ +4 B+ A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 6 22 Tennessee W 75 - 62 65% +4  7 - 2 +30 +21 A+ A+ A+ +10 A+ C- A-
 Tue, Dec 9 30 @Ohio St. W 88 - 80 62% +4  8 - 2 1 - 0 +25 +22 A+ C A- +3 A+ C F
 Sat, Dec 13 14 Nebraska L 80 - 83 70% -6  8 - 3 1 - 1 +12 +23 A+ A+ A+ -12 C- C F
 Mon, Dec 22 50 Missouri W 91 - 48 82% +17  9 - 3 +54 +33 A A+ C +26 A+ A+ D+
 Mon, Dec 29 246 Southern W 90 - 55 99% +20  10 - 3 +27 +23 A+ A+ F +7 A+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 3 116 @Penn St. W 73 - 65 90% +10  11 - 3 2 - 1 +14 +4 F D+ A+ +11 A+ B- F
 Thu, Jan 8 115 Rutgers W 81 - 55 96% +17  12 - 3 3 - 1 +26 +16 A+ F A+ +13 A+ A+ F
 Sun, Jan 11 23 @Iowa W 75 - 69 54% +10  13 - 3 4 - 1 +25 +17 A C+ A +9 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 60 @Northwestern W 79 - 68 79% +5  14 - 3 5 - 1 +23 +25 A+ A+ A +0 A+ F C
 Sat, Jan 17 71 Minnesota W 77 - 67 92% +2  15 - 3 6 - 1 +15 +17 A- A+ B -1 A F F
 Wed, Jan 21 100 Maryland W 89 - 70 95% +12  16 - 3 7 - 1 +21 +20 C A+ A+ +1 B+ B+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 5 @Purdue L 74 - 78 37%
 Thu, Jan 29 47 Washington W 83 - 71 88%
 Sun, Feb 1 14 @Nebraska L 75 - 76 47%
 Wed, Feb 4 60 Northwestern W 82 - 68 91%
 Sat, Feb 7 11 @Michigan St. L 70 - 73 40%
 Tue, Feb 10 35 Wisconsin W 85 - 75 82%
 Sun, Feb 15 37 Indiana W 83 - 73 82%
 Wed, Feb 18 48 @USC W 81 - 74 73%
 Sat, Feb 21 36 @UCLA W 76 - 72 64%
 Fri, Feb 27 1 Michigan L 80 - 82 45%
 Tue, Mar 3 68 Oregon W 83 - 68 92%
 Sun, Mar 8 100 @Maryland W 82 - 70 87%
Totals 24 - 7 15 - 5 +20 +13 A- A+ A +8 A+ A- F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 3.3 9.3 6.3 1.3 20.4 1st
2nd 0.1 2.9 11.0 5.7 0.4 20.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 9.9 7.6 0.6 20.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 7.1 8.2 1.1 0.0 17.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.7 6.6 1.7 0.0 13.7 5th
6th 0.2 1.6 2.7 0.8 0.0 5.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.4 0.0 1.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.7 9.0 16.5 22.9 23.1 15.7 6.7 1.3 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 1.3    1.3 0.0
18-2 94.0% 6.3    4.6 1.6 0.1
17-3 59.7% 9.3    3.2 4.3 1.7 0.2
16-4 14.3% 3.3    0.2 1.2 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
15-5 0.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 20.4% 20.4 9.3 7.1 3.1 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 1.3% 100.0% 33.7% 66.3% 1.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 100.0%
18-2 6.7% 100.0% 23.6% 76.4% 1.6 3.3 2.8 0.5 0.1 100.0%
17-3 15.7% 100.0% 21.7% 78.3% 2.0 4.8 6.8 3.5 0.6 0.0 100.0%
16-4 23.1% 100.0% 16.3% 83.7% 2.6 3.1 7.8 8.3 3.4 0.4 100.0%
15-5 22.9% 100.0% 11.8% 88.2% 3.2 1.1 4.2 8.6 7.0 1.8 0.2 100.0%
14-6 16.5% 100.0% 8.9% 91.1% 3.8 0.2 1.2 4.5 6.5 3.2 0.8 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 9.0% 100.0% 5.0% 95.0% 4.6 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.9 3.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-8 3.7% 100.0% 4.0% 96.0% 5.2 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.0 100.0%
11-9 1.0% 99.0% 2.4% 96.6% 6.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.0%
10-10 0.2% 100.0% 2.6% 97.4% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 100.0%
9-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 14.0% 86.0% 3.1 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.2 83.9 16.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 100.0% 1.3 71.9 28.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 100.0% 1.3 69.1 27.9 2.9