Michigan
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+14.2#21
Expected Predictive Rating+12.2#45
Pace71.6#104
Improvement-0.6#225

Offense
Total Offense+7.6#28
First Shot+5.6#43
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#74
Layup/Dunks+8.3#6
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#335
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#171
Freethrows+0.2#172
Improvement+0.5#133

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#27
First Shot+6.8#17
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#206
Layups/Dunks+5.8#29
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#269
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#188
Freethrows+1.9#62
Improvement-1.1#273
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
#1 Seed 2.4% 2.5% 0.9%
Top 2 Seed 7.6% 7.9% 2.8%
Top 4 Seed 26.5% 27.4% 12.2%
Top 6 Seed 50.0% 51.1% 32.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 86.9% 87.8% 72.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 85.4% 86.4% 70.7%
Average Seed 6.0 5.9 6.9
.500 or above 96.3% 96.9% 87.3%
.500 or above in Conference 87.6% 88.1% 78.5%
Conference Champion 17.5% 17.8% 11.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
First Four3.3% 3.1% 5.7%
First Round85.3% 86.3% 69.6%
Second Round60.1% 61.2% 42.0%
Sweet Sixteen28.7% 29.3% 18.2%
Elite Eight12.6% 12.9% 6.8%
Final Four5.2% 5.4% 2.3%
Championship Game2.1% 2.2% 0.8%
National Champion0.8% 0.9% 0.2%

Next Game: Purdue Fort Wayne (Home) - 94.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 47 - 9
Quad 26 - 214 - 11
Quad 34 - 018 - 11
Quad 43 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 224   Cleveland St. W 101-53 96%     1 - 0 +41.8 +19.9 +18.8
  Nov 10, 2024 86   Wake Forest L 70-72 77%     1 - 1 +4.5 +4.0 +0.5
  Nov 15, 2024 88   TCU W 76-64 84%     2 - 1 +15.4 +5.4 +9.5
  Nov 18, 2024 209   Miami (OH) W 94-67 95%     3 - 1 +21.7 +15.6 +5.0
  Nov 21, 2024 286   Tarleton St. W 72-49 98%     4 - 1 +13.2 +3.2 +11.9
  Nov 25, 2024 126   Virginia Tech W 75-63 87%     5 - 1 +14.3 +4.0 +10.3
  Nov 27, 2024 47   Xavier W 78-53 64%     6 - 1 +35.5 +8.9 +26.3
  Dec 03, 2024 36   @ Wisconsin W 67-64 46%     7 - 1 1 - 0 +18.3 +1.7 +16.7
  Dec 07, 2024 42   Iowa W 85-83 73%     8 - 1 2 - 0 +9.8 +8.5 +1.2
  Dec 10, 2024 29   Arkansas L 87-89 56%     8 - 2 +10.8 +12.5 -1.4
  Dec 18, 2024 34   Oklahoma L 86-87 58%     8 - 3 +11.3 +17.7 -6.4
  Dec 22, 2024 144   Purdue Fort Wayne W 89-72 94%    
  Dec 29, 2024 105   Western Kentucky W 85-72 88%    
  Jan 04, 2025 76   @ USC W 77-73 64%    
  Jan 07, 2025 14   @ UCLA L 67-71 35%    
  Jan 12, 2025 82   Washington W 80-70 83%    
  Jan 16, 2025 114   @ Minnesota W 72-64 77%    
  Jan 19, 2025 61   Northwestern W 73-65 77%    
  Jan 24, 2025 20   @ Purdue L 73-76 39%    
  Jan 27, 2025 30   Penn St. W 81-76 67%    
  Feb 01, 2025 64   @ Rutgers W 77-75 59%    
  Feb 05, 2025 23   Oregon W 77-74 61%    
  Feb 08, 2025 45   @ Indiana W 78-77 52%    
  Feb 11, 2025 20   Purdue W 76-73 60%    
  Feb 16, 2025 38   @ Ohio St. L 74-75 49%    
  Feb 21, 2025 15   Michigan St. W 75-73 58%    
  Feb 24, 2025 53   @ Nebraska W 75-74 55%    
  Feb 27, 2025 64   Rutgers W 80-72 78%    
  Mar 02, 2025 16   Illinois W 79-77 57%    
  Mar 05, 2025 19   Maryland W 77-75 57%    
  Mar 09, 2025 15   @ Michigan St. L 72-76 36%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.5 4.1 5.3 3.8 1.9 0.6 0.1 17.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 4.6 4.9 2.1 0.3 0.0 13.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.3 5.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 11.6 3rd
4th 0.1 2.5 5.1 1.9 0.2 9.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.8 2.9 0.3 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 2.8 3.9 0.7 0.0 7.5 6th
7th 0.9 3.9 1.7 0.1 6.7 7th
8th 0.1 2.2 2.8 0.3 0.0 5.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 3.1 1.0 0.0 4.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.7 2.0 0.2 4.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 2.1 0.6 0.0 3.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.1 0.1 2.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 1.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.7 3.5 6.0 9.0 11.7 13.9 14.6 13.3 10.7 7.5 4.1 2.0 0.6 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
18-2 98.9% 1.9    1.8 0.1
17-3 92.9% 3.8    3.2 0.6 0.0
16-4 69.9% 5.3    3.1 1.8 0.3 0.0
15-5 38.1% 4.1    1.3 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 11.1% 1.5    0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 17.4% 17.4 10.3 4.8 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 41.2% 58.8% 1.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.6% 100.0% 35.3% 64.7% 1.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.0% 100.0% 28.4% 71.6% 1.9 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.0 100.0%
17-3 4.1% 100.0% 28.0% 72.0% 2.4 0.8 1.5 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 7.5% 100.0% 21.0% 79.0% 3.2 0.4 1.5 2.7 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 10.7% 100.0% 17.0% 83.0% 4.1 0.2 0.8 2.5 3.5 2.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-6 13.3% 99.9% 13.0% 86.9% 5.1 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.6 4.0 3.3 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 14.6% 99.6% 10.3% 89.2% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.8 4.0 3.8 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.5%
12-8 13.9% 97.6% 5.2% 92.4% 7.2 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.5 4.1 3.5 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.3 97.4%
11-9 11.7% 92.4% 3.0% 89.4% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 3.2 2.4 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.9 92.2%
10-10 9.0% 76.7% 2.2% 74.4% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.5 1.9 1.4 0.1 2.1 76.2%
9-11 6.0% 39.8% 1.2% 38.5% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 0.2 3.6 39.0%
8-12 3.5% 9.0% 1.1% 7.9% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 3.2 7.9%
7-13 1.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.6% 11.3 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.6%
6-14 0.9% 0.9
5-15 0.2% 0.2
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 86.9% 10.0% 76.9% 6.0 2.4 5.2 8.6 10.3 11.3 12.1 12.6 10.2 6.3 4.4 3.2 0.3 13.1 85.4%