Michigan
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +25.0 #1
Expected Predictive Rating +25.7 #6
Pace 79.8 #10
Improvement -5.6 #360

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #4 A+ A+ A- A A+
Defense #2 A+ B+ B- A+ A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% #11 1.38 #11 +10.5 #2
2 Pt. Jumpers 8% #356 0.84 #67 -4.3 #353
Three Pointers 44% #124 1.09 #81 +3.1 #83
1st FG Attempt 1.20 #6 +9.4 #6
Freethrows 21.7 #13 73% #177 15.8 #20
Second Chance 36.6% #36 1.45 #1 0.53 #1
Turnovers 13.5% #29
Total Offense +12.1 #4

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 24% #362 0.79 #1 +12.8 #1
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #5 0.61 #16 -1.8 #317
Three Pointers 45% #78 0.83 #10 +2.3 #104
1st FG Attempt 0.75 #1 +13.2 #1
Freethrows 12.6 #12 69% #37 8.6 #10
Second Chance 23.5% #10 1.08 #242 0.25 #40
Turnovers 17.8% #91
Total Defense +12.9 #2

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 4.4% #4 -4.7% #2
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 13.3% #17 -22.2% #1
Possession Length 13.4 #1 18.8 #347
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.27 #11 0.06 #1
Improvement -1.8 #286 -3.8 #344

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 23.4% 24.4% 14.3%
#1 Seed 67.3% 68.8% 53.2%
Top 2 Seed 94.1% 94.9% 86.7%
Top 4 Seed 99.8% 99.9% 99.2%
Top 6 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.4 1.4 1.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 44.7% 47.1% 21.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round99.6% 99.6% 99.5%
Sweet Sixteen84.9% 85.1% 82.9%
Elite Eight63.7% 64.3% 58.0%
Final Four44.5% 45.1% 38.2%
Championship Game30.1% 30.7% 24.5%
National Champion19.9% 20.4% 15.5%

Next Game: Ohio St. (Home) - 90.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a8 - 38 - 3
Quad 1b6 - 114 - 4
Quad 29 - 122 - 5
Quad 35 - 028 - 5
Quad 41 - 029 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 139 Oakland W 121 - 78 98% +27  1 - 0 +41 +31 A+ A+ A+ +6 C A+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 63 Wake Forest W 85 - 84 OT 93% +2  2 - 0 +10 +1 D A+ B +8 A+ D+ C
 Fri, Nov 14 45 @TCU W 67 - 63 84% -2  3 - 0 +18 +4 C- A+ F +15 A+ A+ C
 Wed, Nov 19 128 Middle Tennessee W 86 - 61 98% +13  4 - 0 +24 +5 C A+ D+ +17 A+ C A-
 Mon, Nov 24 46 San Diego St. W 94 - 54 90% +18  5 - 0 +51 +22 A+ A+ A+ +26 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 27 Auburn W 102 - 72 83% +21  6 - 0 +45 +32 B+ A+ A+ +12 A+ A+ D-
 Wed, Nov 26 6 Gonzaga W 101 - 61 67% +25  7 - 0 +61 +24 A+ B+ A +31 A+ A+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 115 Rutgers W 101 - 60 98% +22  8 - 0 1 - 0 +41 +25 A+ A+ B+ +15 A+ C- A+
 Tue, Dec 9 33 Villanova W 89 - 61 90% +23  9 - 0 +39 +12 C+ A+ A+ +24 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 100 @Maryland W 101 - 83 93% +3  10 - 0 2 - 0 +26 +33 A+ C+ A+ -7 D- F C
 Sun, Dec 21 197 La Salle W 102 - 50 99% +24  11 - 0 +46 +20 A+ F A +23 A+ B+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 87 McNeese St. W 112 - 71 96% +30  12 - 0 +45 +22 A+ A+ A+ +16 A+ A+ D+
 Fri, Jan 2 48 USC W 96 - 66 94% +16  13 - 0 3 - 0 +38 +12 A- A A+ +21 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 6 116 @Penn St. W 74 - 72 95% +5  14 - 0 4 - 0 +8 +0 D+ F B+ +8 A+ F C
 Sat, Jan 10 35 Wisconsin L 88 - 91 90% +2  14 - 1 4 - 1 +8 +16 A+ B- A -8 D+ F B-
 Wed, Jan 14 47 @Washington W 82 - 72 85% +8  15 - 1 5 - 1 +24 +14 D+ A+ A+ +10 A+ F A-
 Sat, Jan 17 68 @Oregon W 81 - 71 90% +6  16 - 1 6 - 1 +21 +16 A+ A+ F +5 A+ F C-
 Tue, Jan 20 37 Indiana W 86 - 72 91% +14  17 - 1 7 - 1 +24 +17 A+ A+ C- +8 A+ A+ C-
 Fri, Jan 23 30 Ohio St. W 88 - 74 90%
 Tue, Jan 27 14 Nebraska W 84 - 74 82%
 Fri, Jan 30 11 @Michigan St. W 75 - 73 58%
 Thu, Feb 5 116 Penn St. W 94 - 69 99%
 Sun, Feb 8 30 @Ohio St. W 85 - 77 76%
 Wed, Feb 11 60 @Northwestern W 85 - 72 89%
 Sat, Feb 14 36 UCLA W 84 - 69 91%
 Tue, Feb 17 5 @Purdue W 79 - 78 53%
 Sat, Feb 21 3 Duke W 81 - 78 60%
 Tue, Feb 24 71 Minnesota W 83 - 63 97%
 Fri, Feb 27 9 @Illinois W 82 - 80 55%
 Thu, Mar 5 23 @Iowa W 77 - 71 70%
 Sun, Mar 8 11 Michigan St. W 78 - 70 77%
Totals 27 - 4 16 - 4 +25 +12 A+ A+ A- +13 A+ B+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 4.6 17.0 17.0 5.8 44.7 1st
2nd 0.1 2.4 11.6 8.4 0.9 23.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 6.7 6.3 0.6 14.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.2 5.4 1.0 9.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 2.9 0.9 0.0 5.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.6 7.5 15.7 23.5 26.0 17.9 5.8 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 5.8    5.6 0.2
18-2 95.0% 17.0    12.9 4.0 0.2
17-3 65.4% 17.0    6.6 7.8 2.5 0.2
16-4 19.6% 4.6    0.5 1.8 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
15-5 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 44.7% 44.7 25.6 13.8 4.4 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 5.8% 100.0% 57.2% 42.8% 1.1 5.4 0.4 100.0%
18-2 17.9% 100.0% 50.9% 49.1% 1.1 15.7 2.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 26.0% 100.0% 45.6% 54.4% 1.2 20.6 5.3 0.2 100.0%
16-4 23.5% 100.0% 38.7% 61.3% 1.4 15.4 7.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 15.7% 100.0% 31.7% 68.3% 1.6 7.4 6.8 1.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 7.5% 100.0% 26.3% 73.7% 2.0 2.3 3.5 1.4 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-7 2.6% 100.0% 20.0% 80.0% 2.4 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 100.0%
12-8 0.8% 100.0% 15.6% 84.4% 3.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-9 0.2% 100.0% 12.1% 87.9% 4.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-10 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-11 0.0% 0.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 41.0% 59.0% 1.4 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.2% 100.0% 1.0 96.3 3.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6% 100.0% 1.1 92.6 7.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7% 100.0% 1.1 90.5 9.5