IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Michigan
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	+14.2	#30
Expected Predictive Rating	+16.2	#21

Pace	72.5	#62
Improvement	-7.0	#358

Offense
Total Offense	+6.2	#48

First Shot	+5.0	#59
After Offensive Rebound	+1.2	#106

Layup/Dunks	+7.1	#7
2 Pt Jumpshots	-3.6	#350
3 Pt Jumpshots	+1.7	#121
Freethrows	-0.1	#182

Improvement	-5.4	#354

Defense
Total Defense	+8.0	#20

First Shot	+7.7	#15
After Offensive Rebounds	+0.3	#154

Layups/Dunks	+5.5	#28
2 Pt Jumpshots	-1.6	#306
3 Pt Jumpshots	+1.3	#128
Freethrows	+2.4	#42

Improvement	-1.6	#268

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.4%	0.8%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	20.9%	42.8%	3.8%
Top 6 Seed	80.3%	94.9%	68.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Average Seed	5.4	4.7	6.0

.500 or above	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
.500 or above in Conference	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Conference Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Last Place in Conference	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

First Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
First Round	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Second Round	68.7%	76.3%	62.8%
Sweet Sixteen	27.3%	32.7%	23.1%
Elite Eight	8.0%	8.8%	7.3%
Final Four	2.0%	2.3%	1.8%
Championship Game	0.5%	0.6%	0.4%
National Champion	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected Seeding

5 seed

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	4 - 5	4 - 5
Quad 1b	6 - 3	10 - 8
Quad 2	5 - 2	14 - 10
Quad 3	6 - 0	20 - 10
Quad 4	3 - 0	23 - 10

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf	Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	171	Cleveland St.	W	101-53	94%	1 - 0		+44.6	+21.9	+19.7
Nov 10, 2024	61	Wake Forest	L	70-72	68%	1 - 1		+7.3	+5.3	+1.9
Nov 15, 2024	77	TCU	W	76-64	82%	2 - 1		+16.6	+5.9	+10.3
Nov 18, 2024	160	Miami (OH)	W	94-67	93%	3 - 1		+24.3	+15.9	+7.3
Nov 21, 2024	275	Tarleton St.	W	72-49	97%	4 - 1		+13.9	+5.7	+10.0
Nov 25, 2024	134	Virginia Tech	W	75-63	88%	5 - 1		+13.5	+3.3	+10.1
Nov 27, 2024	39	Xavier	W	78-53	55%	6 - 1		+37.8	+11.0	+26.4
Dec 03, 2024	15	@ Wisconsin	W	67-64	28%	7 - 1	1 - 0	+23.1	+4.7	+18.5
Dec 07, 2024	63	Iowa	W	85-83	77%	8 - 1	2 - 0	+8.4	+6.2	+2.1
Dec 10, 2024	38	Arkansas	L	87-89	55%	8 - 2		+11.0	+14.2	-3.0
Dec 18, 2024	40	Oklahoma	L	86-87	56%	8 - 3		+11.6	+17.8	-6.1
Dec 22, 2024	164	Purdue Fort Wayne	W	89-58	94%	9 - 3		+28.0	+13.7	+14.3
Dec 29, 2024	154	Western Kentucky	W	112-64	93%	10 - 3		+45.5	+21.4	+16.3
Jan 04, 2025	62	@ USC	W	85-74	58%	11 - 3	3 - 0	+23.0	+13.7	+9.0
Jan 07, 2025	24	@ UCLA	W	94-75	34%	12 - 3	4 - 0	+37.3	+28.4	+8.4
Jan 12, 2025	104	Washington	W	91-75	88%	13 - 3	5 - 0	+17.2	+15.0	+1.6
Jan 16, 2025	86	@ Minnesota	L	81-84 OT	68%	13 - 4	5 - 1	+6.4	+13.8	-7.4
Jan 19, 2025	51	Northwestern	W	80-76 OT	72%	14 - 4	6 - 1	+12.1	+5.1	+6.7
Jan 24, 2025	16	@ Purdue	L	64-91	29%	14 - 5	6 - 2	-7.0	-3.7	-2.7
Jan 27, 2025	58	Penn St.	W	76-72	75%	15 - 5	7 - 2	+11.2	+7.4	+3.9
Feb 01, 2025	65	@ Rutgers	W	66-63	61%	16 - 5	8 - 2	+14.4	-2.1	+16.5
Feb 05, 2025	34	Oregon	W	80-76	63%	17 - 5	9 - 2	+14.8	+7.5	+7.1
Feb 08, 2025	42	@ Indiana	W	70-67	48%	18 - 5	10 - 2	+17.6	+8.5	+9.3
Feb 11, 2025	16	Purdue	W	75-73	49%	19 - 5	11 - 2	+16.5	+7.4	+9.1
Feb 16, 2025	37	@ Ohio St.	W	86-83	43%	20 - 5	12 - 2	+19.1	+20.1	-1.1
Feb 21, 2025	8	Michigan St.	L	62-75	40%	20 - 6	12 - 3	+3.7	+3.4	-0.4
Feb 24, 2025	57	@ Nebraska	W	49-46	56%	21 - 6	13 - 3	+15.8	-16.2	+32.0
Feb 27, 2025	65	Rutgers	W	84-82	79%	22 - 6	14 - 3	+7.9	+7.3	+0.4
Mar 02, 2025	17	Illinois	L	73-93	50%	22 - 7	14 - 4	-5.9	+5.8	-11.9
Mar 05, 2025	11	Maryland	L	65-71	45%	22 - 8	14 - 5	+9.5	+0.9	+8.6
Mar 09, 2025	8	@ Michigan St.	L	62-79	22%	22 - 9	14 - 6	+5.2	+1.2	+4.3
Projected Record						22 - 9	14 - 6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big Ten Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0	Total
1st																							1st
2nd															100.0							100.0	2nd
3rd																							3rd
4th																							4th
5th																							5th
6th																							6th
7th																							7th
8th																							8th
9th																							9th
10th																							10th
11th																							11th
12th																							12th
13th																							13th
14th																							14th
15th																							15th
16th																						16th
17th																						17th
18th																						18th

Total															100.0							Total

Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6	0.0%
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10

Total

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6	100.0%	100.0%	6.3%	93.7%	5.4		0.4	6.8	13.8	27.6	31.8	17.8	1.9	0.0								0.0	100.0%
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20

Total	100%	100.0%	6.3%	93.7%	5.4		0.4	6.8	13.8	27.6	31.8	17.8	1.9	0.0								0.0	100.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
Win Out	6.3%	100.0%	3.4	5.1	58.5	32.1	4.0	0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	10.5%	100.0%	4.3	0.4	18.4	40.9	31.5	7.9	0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	27.2%	100.0%	5.2		3.6	20.3	41.2	26.9	7.7	0.2
Lose Out	56.1%	100.0%	6.0		0.3	3.4	22.9	42.2	27.9	3.2	0.0