Indiana
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.9#42
Expected Predictive Rating+12.8#43
Pace69.4#134
Improvement+2.1#104

Offense
Total Offense+5.3#60
First Shot+1.6#120
After Offensive Rebound+3.7#17
Layup/Dunks+6.1#19
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#169
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.0#343
Freethrows+1.4#94
Improvement-0.1#192

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#39
First Shot+4.5#56
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#41
Layups/Dunks+0.2#161
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#159
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#132
Freethrows+2.5#36
Improvement+2.2#73
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 64.5% 79.6% 52.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 64.2% 79.2% 52.9%
Average Seed 10.1 9.7 10.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four21.8% 12.4% 29.1%
First Round53.5% 72.9% 38.5%
Second Round19.9% 27.7% 13.9%
Sweet Sixteen4.6% 5.5% 3.9%
Elite Eight1.4% 1.8% 1.1%
Final Four0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 65 - 13
Quad 25 - 09 - 13
Quad 36 - 015 - 13
Quad 44 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 233   SIU Edwardsville W 80-61 95%     1 - 0 +12.3 +2.7 +9.0
  Nov 10, 2024 320   Eastern Illinois W 90-55 98%     2 - 0 +22.7 +13.1 +8.6
  Nov 16, 2024 68   South Carolina W 87-71 74%     3 - 0 +21.2 +15.9 +4.9
  Nov 21, 2024 158   UNC Greensboro W 69-58 90%     4 - 0 +8.5 -2.6 +11.4
  Nov 27, 2024 23   Louisville L 61-89 35%     4 - 1 -12.1 -5.8 -5.4
  Nov 28, 2024 9   Gonzaga L 73-89 25%     4 - 2 +2.8 +2.5 +1.2
  Nov 29, 2024 87   Providence W 89-73 72%     5 - 2 +21.9 +22.8 +0.0
  Dec 03, 2024 170   Sam Houston St. W 97-71 91%     6 - 2 +22.7 +11.1 +9.2
  Dec 06, 2024 160   Miami (OH) W 76-57 91%     7 - 2 +16.3 +4.9 +12.1
  Dec 09, 2024 86   Minnesota W 82-67 78%     8 - 2 1 - 0 +18.9 +13.7 +5.5
  Dec 13, 2024 57   @ Nebraska L 68-85 46%     8 - 3 1 - 1 -4.2 +3.1 -7.6
  Dec 21, 2024 117   Chattanooga W 74-65 86%     9 - 3 +9.2 -0.3 +9.8
  Dec 29, 2024 161   Winthrop W 77-68 91%     10 - 3 +6.2 -0.5 +6.5
  Jan 02, 2025 65   Rutgers W 84-74 72%     11 - 3 2 - 1 +15.9 +6.8 +8.4
  Jan 05, 2025 58   @ Penn St. W 77-71 47%     12 - 3 3 - 1 +18.7 +10.3 +8.5
  Jan 08, 2025 62   USC W 82-69 70%     13 - 3 4 - 1 +19.5 +8.6 +10.7
  Jan 11, 2025 63   @ Iowa L 60-85 50%     13 - 4 4 - 2 -13.1 -12.7 +0.3
  Jan 14, 2025 17   Illinois L 69-94 41%     13 - 5 4 - 3 -10.9 -4.8 -3.8
  Jan 17, 2025 37   @ Ohio St. W 77-76 OT 34%     14 - 5 5 - 3 +17.1 +10.0 +7.1
  Jan 22, 2025 51   @ Northwestern L 70-79 43%     14 - 6 5 - 4 +4.6 +7.3 -3.1
  Jan 26, 2025 11   Maryland L 78-79 36%     14 - 7 5 - 5 +14.5 +23.0 -8.6
  Jan 31, 2025 16   @ Purdue L 76-81 22%     14 - 8 5 - 6 +15.0 +11.3 +3.6
  Feb 04, 2025 15   @ Wisconsin L 64-76 22%     14 - 9 5 - 7 +8.1 +3.0 +4.4
  Feb 08, 2025 30   Michigan L 67-70 52%     14 - 10 5 - 8 +8.5 +4.0 +4.3
  Feb 11, 2025 8   @ Michigan St. W 71-67 17%     15 - 10 6 - 8 +26.2 +16.0 +10.5
  Feb 14, 2025 24   UCLA L 68-72 46%     15 - 11 6 - 9 +8.8 +8.5 -0.1
  Feb 23, 2025 16   Purdue W 73-58 40%     16 - 11 7 - 9 +29.5 +10.3 +20.5
  Feb 26, 2025 58   Penn St. W 83-78 67%     17 - 11 8 - 9 +12.2 +14.2 -2.0
  Mar 01, 2025 104   @ Washington W 78-62 69%     18 - 11 9 - 9 +22.7 +7.9 +14.7
  Mar 04, 2025 34   @ Oregon L 64-73 33%     18 - 12 9 - 10 +7.4 +3.9 +2.8
  Mar 08, 2025 37   Ohio St. W 66-60 55%     19 - 12 10 - 10 +16.5 +3.6 +13.5
  Mar 13, 2025 34   Oregon L 72-74 43%    
Projected Record 19 - 13 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 100.0 100.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 100.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 100.0% 64.5% 0.9% 63.7% 10.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 2.6 10.2 24.3 25.9 0.7 35.5 64.2%
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 64.5% 0.9% 63.7% 10.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 2.6 10.2 24.3 25.9 0.7 35.5 64.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 7.1 3.5 19.8 41.9 30.2 4.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.2% 97.7% 8.6 0.5 4.7 35.3 47.0 10.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 6.5% 90.5% 9.3 0.8 13.1 42.7 29.7 4.3
Lose Out 56.3% 52.9% 10.6 0.2 2.3 16.4 32.9 1.2