Alabama A&M
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.0 #301
Expected Predictive Rating -7.0 #275
Pace 66.2 #258
Improvement -2.7 #303

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #309 F D+ C B D
Defense #257 D C- C C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #248 1.02 #326 -3.9 #307
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #67 0.69 #272 +1.5 #99
Three Pointers 37% #266 0.90 #317 -4.1 #313
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #345 -6.4 #346
Freethrows 19.1 #104 74% #137 14.2 #91
Second Chance 25.8% #305 1.07 #150 0.28 #271
Turnovers 16.7% #197
Total Offense -5.4 #309

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #157 1.28 #318 -3.1 #283
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #239 0.78 #215 +0.5 #156
Three Pointers 42% #150 1.04 #216 -1.0 #225
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #289 -3.6 #292
Freethrows 18.6 #253 68% #29 12.7 #193
Second Chance 30.6% #185 1.10 #263 0.34 #229
Turnovers 16.0% #209
Total Defense -2.6 #257

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.9% #299 0.7% #234
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -10.9% #339 6.1% #294
Possession Length 18.4 #284 16.8 #84
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #215 0.21 #297
Improvement -0.2 #189 -2.5 #315

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.6% 12.5% 8.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 49.7% 62.4% 36.9%
.500 or above in Conference 75.1% 85.8% 64.2%
Conference Champion 13.5% 19.4% 7.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four8.3% 9.2% 7.3%
First Round6.0% 7.3% 4.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Southern (Away) - 50.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 20 - 5
Quad 414 - 1015 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 37 @Indiana L 51 - 98 2% -31  0 - 1 -31 -16 F F B -15 F C+ C+
 Thu, Nov 13 234 Charleston Southern W 68 - 64 46% +5  1 - 1 -3 -7 F A+ F +4 B- D A+
 Sun, Nov 16 237 Lindenwood W 74 - 65 47% +2  2 - 1 +2 +2 B C D- -0 C B B-
 Fri, Nov 28 32 @Clemson L 56 - 92 2% -25  2 - 2 -19 -7 C- F B+ -12 D- F B
 Sun, Nov 30 252 @Coastal Carolina L 60 - 67 28% -6  2 - 3 -9 -11 F F F +2 A C+ B-
 Wed, Dec 3 241 Tennessee St. W 80 - 53 48% +9  3 - 3 +20 +9 A+ B- F +13 A+ C- A+
 Sun, Dec 7 174 @Lipscomb L 58 - 92 18% -13  3 - 4 -32 -9 F F C- -26 F F F
 Mon, Dec 15 328 North Alabama W 68 - 60 70% +0  4 - 4 -5 -8 F D+ A- +3 F A+ C+
 Wed, Dec 17 62 Mississippi L 66 - 80 7% -13  4 - 5 -5 +3 B- C C+ -10 F C- C
 Sun, Dec 21 247 Chattanooga L 66 - 73 49% -4  4 - 6 -15 -5 F F B -11 F D- D-
 Sat, Jan 3 334 @Arkansas Pine Bluff L 83 - 95 50% -4  4 - 7 0 - 1 -20 +14 D- A+ C- -35 F F F
 Mon, Jan 5 365 @Mississippi Valley W 71 - 51 89% +12  5 - 7 1 - 1 -1 -9 F D F +7 B B A+
 Sat, Jan 10 347 Alcorn St. L 62 - 64 76% +4  5 - 8 1 - 2 -17 -13 F F D+ -5 C B F
 Mon, Jan 12 325 Jackson St. W 100 - 91 69% +6  6 - 8 2 - 2 -4 +6 C C C -11 D C F
 Mon, Jan 19 311 Alabama St. W 73 - 69 53% +0  7 - 8 3 - 2 -5 -6 F F C+ +1 D F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 335 @Texas Southern W 74 - 73 50%
 Mon, Jan 26 317 @Prairie View L 74 - 75 45%
 Sat, Jan 31 313 Florida A&M W 72 - 68 65%
 Mon, Feb 2 269 Bethune-Cookman W 73 - 72 54%
 Sat, Feb 7 246 @Southern L 69 - 75 27%
 Mon, Feb 9 287 @Grambling St. L 67 - 71 36%
 Sat, Feb 14 365 Mississippi Valley W 76 - 57 96%
 Mon, Feb 16 334 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 78 - 72 71%
 Thu, Feb 19 313 @Florida A&M L 69 - 71 43%
 Sat, Feb 21 269 @Bethune-Cookman L 70 - 75 33%
 Sat, Feb 28 311 Alabama St. W 75 - 71 63%
 Tue, Mar 3 287 Grambling St. W 70 - 68 58%
 Thu, Mar 5 246 Southern L 72 - 73 49%
Totals 14 - 14 10 - 8 -8 -5 F D+ C -3 D C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 4.1 5.2 2.5 0.7 0.1 13.5 1st
2nd 0.5 5.3 5.7 1.5 0.1 0.0 13.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 4.0 7.6 1.8 0.1 13.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 8.0 2.7 0.1 12.0 4th
5th 0.1 5.3 5.4 0.2 11.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.6 7.4 1.0 0.0 10.0 6th
7th 0.4 4.7 3.1 0.1 8.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.8 4.9 0.4 7.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.2 1.5 0.0 5.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.6 1.8 0.2 3.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.2 2.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.3 7.4 13.1 17.3 19.0 16.8 11.7 6.8 2.6 0.7 0.1 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-3 98.6% 0.7    0.7 0.0
14-4 95.2% 2.5    2.1 0.4 0.0
13-5 76.8% 5.2    2.9 2.0 0.3 0.0
12-6 34.6% 4.1    0.8 1.8 1.2 0.2 0.0
11-7 5.4% 0.9    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.5% 13.5 6.6 4.3 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.1% 35.0% 35.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.7% 32.2% 32.2% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5
14-4 2.6% 24.0% 24.0% 15.9 0.1 0.5 2.0
13-5 6.8% 21.6% 21.6% 15.9 0.1 1.4 5.3
12-6 11.7% 17.5% 17.5% 16.0 0.1 2.0 9.7
11-7 16.8% 13.7% 13.7% 16.0 0.0 2.3 14.5
10-8 19.0% 10.5% 10.5% 16.0 0.0 2.0 17.0
9-9 17.3% 7.7% 7.7% 16.0 1.3 16.0
8-10 13.1% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.5 12.6
7-11 7.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.4
6-12 3.3% 3.3
5-13 0.9% 0.9
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 10.6% 10.6% 0.0% 16.0 89.4 0.0%