Alabama A&M
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-15.0#361
Expected Predictive Rating-16.4#355
Pace74.6#54
Improvement-1.6#281

Offense
Total Offense-8.1#357
First Shot-11.0#364
After Offensive Rebound+3.0#30
Layup/Dunks-3.5#301
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#302
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#275
Freethrows-2.3#308
Improvement-0.4#207

Defense
Total Defense-6.9#352
First Shot-4.3#314
After Offensive Rebounds-2.6#338
Layups/Dunks+1.8#104
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#7
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#337
Freethrows-4.5#359
Improvement-1.2#278
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.3% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.1% 4.6% 0.9%
.500 or above in Conference 20.9% 31.6% 20.0%
Conference Champion 0.5% 1.2% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 13.3% 7.7% 13.7%
First Four0.7% 1.2% 0.7%
First Round0.2% 0.5% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Samford (Home) - 7.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 30 - 50 - 7
Quad 48 - 148 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 16, 2024 315   @ Tennessee St. L 71-81 19%     0 - 1 -15.7 -13.9 -0.4
  Nov 19, 2024 33   @ Georgia L 45-93 1%     0 - 2 -32.6 -20.1 -11.4
  Nov 22, 2024 245   South Carolina St. L 70-82 24%     0 - 3 -19.7 -5.4 -14.3
  Nov 23, 2024 270   Coastal Carolina W 77-70 27%     1 - 3 -1.7 +1.8 -3.3
  Nov 25, 2024 354   IU Indianapolis L 83-88 53%     1 - 4 -20.8 +2.0 -22.9
  Nov 30, 2024 107   Lipscomb L 44-82 8%     1 - 5 -37.0 -29.6 -5.8
  Dec 15, 2024 177   @ Chattanooga L 63-85 7%     1 - 6 -20.0 -2.5 -20.4
  Dec 18, 2024 130   @ UAB L 67-96 4%     1 - 7 -24.2 -10.3 -12.1
  Dec 21, 2024 113   Samford L 76-91 7%    
  Dec 28, 2024 111   @ Georgia Tech L 65-87 2%    
  Jan 04, 2025 362   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 86-81 69%    
  Jan 06, 2025 364   Mississippi Valley W 73-64 80%    
  Jan 11, 2025 339   @ Alcorn St. L 70-77 27%    
  Jan 13, 2025 307   @ Jackson St. L 69-79 18%    
  Jan 18, 2025 284   Alabama St. L 74-79 31%    
  Jan 25, 2025 305   Texas Southern L 74-78 36%    
  Jan 27, 2025 338   Prairie View L 83-84 47%    
  Feb 01, 2025 357   @ Florida A&M L 70-75 33%    
  Feb 03, 2025 264   @ Bethune-Cookman L 67-80 13%    
  Feb 08, 2025 221   Southern L 68-77 21%    
  Feb 10, 2025 310   Grambling St. L 69-73 37%    
  Feb 15, 2025 364   @ Mississippi Valley W 70-67 62%    
  Feb 17, 2025 362   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff L 83-84 48%    
  Feb 22, 2025 264   Bethune-Cookman L 70-77 28%    
  Feb 24, 2025 357   Florida A&M W 73-72 54%    
  Mar 01, 2025 284   @ Alabama St. L 71-82 15%    
  Mar 06, 2025 310   @ Grambling St. L 66-76 20%    
  Mar 08, 2025 221   @ Southern L 65-80 9%    
Projected Record 8 - 20 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.2 4th
5th 0.2 1.4 2.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 4.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.6 1.6 0.1 0.0 7.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.8 3.0 0.3 10.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.3 6.0 4.5 0.7 0.0 13.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.9 7.0 5.5 1.2 0.1 16.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 3.5 7.1 5.3 1.3 0.1 17.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.9 3.9 5.9 3.6 0.9 0.0 15.2 11th
12th 0.2 1.0 2.4 2.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 7.4 12th
Total 0.2 1.0 3.3 6.9 10.9 14.0 15.6 14.8 12.4 8.9 5.8 3.2 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 87.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-4 55.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 22.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 5.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 18.8% 18.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.3% 11.1% 11.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3
13-5 0.8% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.0 0.8
12-6 1.7% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.1 1.6
11-7 3.2% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.1 3.1
10-8 5.8% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.1 5.7
9-9 8.9% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.2 8.8
8-10 12.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 12.2
7-11 14.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.7
6-12 15.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.6
5-13 14.0% 14.0
4-14 10.9% 10.9
3-15 6.9% 6.9
2-16 3.3% 3.3
1-17 1.0% 1.0
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 16.0 0.8 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%