Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
201 Southern 26.5%   16   1 - 6 0 - 0 14 - 15 13 - 6 -2.8      -2.7 239 -0.1 171 80.2 11 -5.6 249 0.0 1
228 Bethune-Cookman 19.8%   2 - 7 0 - 0 14 - 16 11 - 6 -3.9      -1.9 218 -2.0 242 67.4 243 -6.7 264 0.0 1
265 Alabama St. 13.2%   2 - 7 0 - 0 13 - 17 11 - 6 -5.6      -1.0 193 -4.6 325 68.9 198 -7.6 280 0.0 1
280 Alabama A&M 10.5%   4 - 4 0 - 0 15 - 13 11 - 7 -6.5      -5.3 310 -1.2 215 66.3 269 -0.7 182 0.0 1
285 Grambling St. 9.7%   2 - 6 0 - 0 13 - 16 9 - 8 -6.7      -5.7 324 -1.0 205 65.8 281 -6.6 261 0.0 1
315 Jackson St. 4.9%   1 - 9 0 - 0 11 - 20 9 - 9 -9.1      -7.5 343 -1.7 230 71.0 145 -7.1 270 0.0 1
318 Texas Southern 4.4%   0 - 7 0 - 0 10 - 17 8 - 9 -9.3      -6.0 331 -3.3 282 74.2 61 -13.4 338 0.0 1
326 Prairie View 4.0%   1 - 6 0 - 0 10 - 17 8 - 9 -9.8      -5.7 327 -4.1 310 75.8 40 -11.3 321 0.0 1
330 Alcorn St. 3.4%   1 - 9 0 - 0 10 - 21 9 - 10 -10.4      -5.9 329 -4.5 323 72.9 84 -7.9 286 0.0 1
342 Florida A&M 2.3%   0 - 5 0 - 0 8 - 19 7 - 10 -11.5      -6.7 338 -4.8 328 71.5 130 -12.9 332 0.0 1
351 Arkansas Pine Bluff 1.0%   1 - 10 0 - 0 8 - 21 7 - 10 -12.7      -7.7 348 -5.0 332 80.0 12 -6.1 255 0.0 1
365 Mississippi Valley 0.0%   0 - 9 0 - 0 2 - 29 2 - 15 -22.7      -13.7 365 -9.0 363 70.7 155 -18.8 359 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Dec 13 326 Prairie View 85 277 South Dakota 97   
Sat, Dec 13 315 Jackson St. 53 58 Northwestern 93   
Sun, Dec 14 228 Bethune-Cookman 60 48 Missouri 82   
Sun, Dec 14 97 Minnesota 89 318 Texas Southern 53   
Mon, Dec 15 280 Alabama A&M 68 209 North Alabama 60   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Tue, Dec 16 126 California Baptist 79 201 Southern 71 78%   
Tue, Dec 16 365 Mississippi Valley 64 198 Tarleton St. 81 94%   
Wed, Dec 17 228 Bethune-Cookman 67 43 Saint Louis 86 95%   
Wed, Dec 17 265 Alabama St. 65 78 Cincinnati 81 92%   
Wed, Dec 17 342 Florida A&M 71 305 Jacksonville 72 52%   
Wed, Dec 17 280 Alabama A&M 60 60 Mississippi 76 92%   
Wed, Dec 17 29 North Carolina St. 92 318 Texas Southern 66 98%   
Thu, Dec 18 285 Grambling St. 63 232 Norfolk St. 66 60%   
Thu, Dec 18 230 Hampton 71 315 Jackson St. 65 69%   
Fri, Dec 19 285 Grambling St. 65 230 Hampton 67 60%   
Fri, Dec 19 315 Jackson St. 64 232 Norfolk St. 69 69%   
Fri, Dec 19 342 Florida A&M 68 198 Tarleton St. 80 87%   
Fri, Dec 19 330 Alcorn St. 67 32 Baylor 94 98%   
Fri, Dec 19 105 Florida St. 93 365 Mississippi Valley 63 99%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Southern 2.5 47.1 18.2 10.8 7.4 5.1 3.8 2.7 2.0 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.0
Bethune-Cookman 3.7 19.8 20.3 16.2 11.7 9.6 7.4 5.7 4.0 2.8 1.7 0.8 0.1
Alabama St. 4.1 15.2 16.9 15.6 13.6 10.8 9.2 6.7 5.1 3.5 2.2 1.1 0.1
Alabama A&M 4.4 14.2 15.9 13.8 12.4 10.9 9.6 7.9 6.1 4.2 3.2 1.7 0.1
Grambling St. 5.7 6.8 9.3 10.5 10.6 11.1 11.0 10.7 10.2 8.9 6.6 4.1 0.3
Jackson St. 5.5 6.9 10.5 11.4 12.0 11.1 11.0 10.3 9.3 7.4 5.9 3.8 0.3
Texas Southern 6.7 3.3 6.2 7.3 8.4 10.3 10.5 10.8 11.6 11.8 10.9 8.2 0.7
Prairie View 6.5 3.5 6.0 8.0 9.3 10.3 11.5 11.2 11.9 11.3 9.6 6.5 0.8
Alcorn St. 6.0 5.9 8.3 9.3 10.2 10.8 11.1 10.9 10.2 9.3 7.5 5.8 0.7
Florida A&M 8.2 1.4 2.8 3.6 5.0 5.9 7.1 8.9 11.0 14.1 16.6 20.2 3.5
Arkansas Pine Bluff 8.4 0.5 1.5 2.9 4.0 5.8 7.4 9.3 12.5 15.1 18.7 19.3 2.9
Mississippi Valley 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 3.8 12.9 81.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Southern 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 1.7 3.0 4.9 7.2 9.8 13.0 14.4 14.0 12.2 9.6 5.6 2.7
Bethune-Cookman 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 4.0 6.5 10.0 12.7 15.1 15.9 13.4 9.8 6.0 2.5 0.5
Alabama St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.7 5.3 8.4 11.4 14.6 15.5 14.8 11.7 8.0 4.1 1.4 0.2
Alabama A&M 11 - 7 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.7 6.1 9.5 12.6 14.0 14.5 13.1 9.8 7.3 3.9 1.7 0.6 0.1
Grambling St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.4 4.4 7.6 10.6 13.4 14.6 13.9 11.6 9.1 6.1 3.1 1.3 0.4 0.1
Jackson St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.8 4.2 6.7 9.8 12.7 14.3 14.2 12.6 10.0 6.4 3.9 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0
Texas Southern 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 4.7 7.6 10.9 13.4 14.2 13.6 12.0 8.8 5.8 3.5 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0
Prairie View 8 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 4.0 6.9 9.9 13.2 14.8 14.6 12.6 9.5 6.2 3.6 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
Alcorn St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.0 5.5 8.6 11.2 13.6 14.3 13.0 10.8 7.8 5.2 3.0 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
Florida A&M 7 - 11 0.3 1.4 3.5 7.1 10.2 12.3 13.9 13.8 11.8 9.6 6.8 4.6 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 7 - 11 0.1 0.7 2.4 6.0 10.5 14.4 15.9 15.6 12.6 9.7 6.0 3.5 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Mississippi Valley 2 - 16 20.9 28.8 23.4 14.3 7.1 3.5 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Southern 47.1% 35.7 8.8 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Bethune-Cookman 19.8% 12.0 5.8 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Alabama St. 15.2% 8.4 4.8 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Alabama A&M 14.2% 8.3 4.3 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Grambling St. 6.8% 3.6 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Jackson St. 6.9% 3.7 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Texas Southern 3.3% 1.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.1
Prairie View 3.5% 1.7 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Alcorn St. 5.9% 3.1 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Florida A&M 1.4% 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Mississippi Valley


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Southern 26.9% 26.9% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.1 0.7 2.4 7.2 16.5 73.1 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 19.8% 19.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.2 14.4 80.2 0.0%
Alabama St. 13.2% 13.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 1.6 11.2 86.8 0.0%
Alabama A&M 10.5% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.9 8.2 89.5 0.0%
Grambling St. 9.7% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 8.1 90.3 0.0%
Jackson St. 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 4.7 95.1 0.0%
Texas Southern 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 4.2 95.6 0.0%
Prairie View 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 3.9 96.0 0.0%
Alcorn St. 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 3.3 96.6 0.0%
Florida A&M 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.1 2.2 97.7 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 1.0 99.0 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Southern 26.9% 9.7% 22.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 19.8% 9.3% 15.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama St. 13.2% 8.1% 9.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama A&M 10.5% 5.3% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Grambling St. 9.7% 5.7% 6.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jackson St. 4.9% 4.2% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Southern 4.4% 3.7% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Prairie View 4.0% 3.4% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alcorn St. 3.4% 3.1% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida A&M 2.3% 2.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 73.2% 0.7 26.8 73.2
2nd Round 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0