Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
231 Southern 30.5%   16   17 - 11 15 - 3 18 - 11 15 - 3 -3.9      -5.0 303 +1.1 135 70.3 117 -2.4 200 -1.7 1
269 Jackson St. 18.4%   14 - 17 14 - 4 14 - 17 14 - 4 -5.9      -4.6 294 -1.4 214 70.7 105 -5.5 259 -3.7 2
279 Texas Southern 14.0%   12 - 16 12 - 6 13 - 16 12 - 6 -6.6      -7.8 344 +1.2 132 72.5 63 -8.5 307 -7.3 5
288 Alabama St. 9.7%   15 - 15 12 - 6 15 - 16 12 - 6 -7.3      -4.8 300 -2.6 252 68.8 155 -6.5 278 -7.1 4
289 Bethune-Cookman 12.5%   16 - 15 13 - 5 17 - 15 13 - 5 -7.4      -5.8 321 -1.6 221 71.7 77 -3.8 231 -4.0 3
322 Florida A&M 5.9%   11 - 16 10 - 8 12 - 16 11 - 8 -9.6      -4.0 279 -5.6 331 68.1 183 -8.2 302 -8.5 6
327 Alcorn St. 5.6%   11 - 19 11 - 7 11 - 20 11 - 7 -9.9      -5.9 323 -3.9 290 63.2 312 -9.3 312 -8.5 7
330 Grambling St. 3.5%   8 - 21 8 - 11 8 - 22 8 - 11 -10.6      -7.7 343 -2.9 263 61.8 337 -14.1 349 -13.1 8
358 Prairie View 0.0%   4 - 26 4 - 14 4 - 27 4 - 15 -15.9      -8.2 349 -7.8 353 74.8 35 -20.4 360 -20.1 10
359 Alabama A&M 0.0%   7 - 22 6 - 13 7 - 22 6 - 13 -16.0      -10.5 362 -5.5 325 75.5 26 -16.4 356 -16.5 9
363 Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.0%   4 - 25 3 - 15 4 - 25 3 - 15 -18.5      -8.7 353 -9.8 360 77.4 13 -21.4 362 -23.0 11
364 Mississippi Valley 0.0%   1 - 28 1 - 17 1 - 28 1 - 17 -28.3      -16.4 364 -11.9 364 63.1 313 -27.9 364 -27.9 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Southern 1.0 100.0
Jackson St. 2.0 100.0
Texas Southern 4.0 100.0
Alabama St. 4.0 100.0
Bethune-Cookman 3.0 100.0
Florida A&M 6.3 72.4 27.6
Alcorn St. 6.0 100.0
Grambling St. 8.0 100.0
Prairie View 10.0 100.0
Alabama A&M 9.0 100.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 11.0 100.0
Mississippi Valley 12.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Southern 15 - 3 100.0
Jackson St. 14 - 4 100.0
Texas Southern 12 - 6 100.0
Alabama St. 12 - 6 100.0
Bethune-Cookman 13 - 5 100.0
Florida A&M 11 - 7 27.6 72.4
Alcorn St. 11 - 7 100.0
Grambling St. 8 - 10 100.0
Prairie View 4 - 14 72.4 27.6
Alabama A&M 6 - 12 100.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 3 - 15 100.0
Mississippi Valley 1 - 17 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Southern 100.0% 100.0
Jackson St.
Texas Southern
Alabama St.
Bethune-Cookman
Florida A&M
Alcorn St.
Grambling St.
Prairie View
Alabama A&M
Arkansas Pine Bluff
Mississippi Valley


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Southern 30.5% 30.5% 0.0% 16   0.1 6.4 23.9 69.5 0.0%
Jackson St. 18.4% 18.4% 0.0% 18.4 81.6 0.0%
Texas Southern 14.0% 14.0% 0.0% 14.0 86.0 0.0%
Alabama St. 9.7% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0 9.7 90.3 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 12.5% 12.5% 0.0% 0.2 12.3 87.5 0.0%
Florida A&M 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 5.9 94.1 0.0%
Alcorn St. 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 5.6 94.4 0.0%
Grambling St. 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 3.5 96.5 0.0%
Prairie View 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Alabama A&M 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Southern 30.5% 9.2% 25.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jackson St. 18.4% 18.1% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Southern 14.0% 13.8% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama St. 9.7% 9.3% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 12.5% 10.0% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida A&M 5.9% 5.9% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alcorn St. 5.6% 5.6% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Grambling St. 3.5% 3.5% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Prairie View 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama A&M 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 55.9% 0.6 44.1 55.9
2nd Round 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0