Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
221 Southern 32.6%   16   2 - 5 0 - 0 16 - 12 13 - 5 -2.8      -4.4 296 +1.5 124 69.8 154 -1.9 194 0.0 1
264 Bethune-Cookman 17.4%   3 - 8 0 - 0 15 - 16 12 - 6 -5.5      -5.5 325 0.0 166 72.5 84 -3.2 223 0.0 1
284 Alabama St. 13.4%   3 - 7 0 - 0 15 - 15 12 - 6 -6.7      -2.9 251 -3.8 294 71.0 123 -4.2 238 0.0 1
305 Texas Southern 9.9%   0 - 9 0 - 0 11 - 17 11 - 7 -8.0      -4.9 311 -3.1 272 72.3 88 -8.1 301 0.0 1
307 Jackson St. 9.0%   0 - 10 0 - 0 11 - 19 11 - 7 -8.2      -6.5 343 -1.7 224 71.6 106 -6.3 278 0.0 1
310 Grambling St. 8.5%   0 - 8 0 - 0 10 - 18 10 - 8 -8.4      -5.1 319 -3.2 280 64.8 286 -16.6 356 0.0 1
338 Prairie View 3.2%   0 - 10 0 - 0 9 - 21 9 - 9 -11.3      -1.9 228 -9.3 363 78.6 14 -13.0 340 0.0 1
339 Alcorn St. 3.3%   0 - 11 0 - 0 9 - 21 9 - 9 -11.3      -5.6 326 -5.8 344 66.6 241 -10.1 321 0.0 1
357 Florida A&M 1.7%   1 - 6 0 - 0 8 - 19 7 - 11 -13.2      -9.1 359 -4.1 304 69.7 156 -2.5 208 0.0 1
361 Alabama A&M 0.8%   1 - 7 0 - 0 8 - 20 6 - 12 -15.0      -8.1 357 -6.9 352 74.6 54 -16.4 355 0.0 1
362 Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.2%   1 - 10 0 - 0 6 - 23 5 - 13 -17.3      -5.7 329 -11.6 364 78.9 12 -14.9 349 0.0 1
364 Mississippi Valley 0.0%   0 - 9 0 - 0 3 - 26 3 - 15 -21.2      -13.1 364 -8.1 361 62.9 328 -3.8 234 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Southern 2.4 47.7 19.5 11.9 7.7 5.2 3.5 2.1 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Bethune-Cookman 3.6 19.9 19.4 15.9 13.3 10.6 8.1 5.7 3.7 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.0
Alabama St. 3.7 18.4 18.8 16.3 13.6 10.9 8.5 5.9 3.7 2.2 1.2 0.4 0.1
Texas Southern 4.5 12.3 14.4 14.4 14.0 12.0 10.8 8.6 6.2 3.9 2.1 1.0 0.2
Jackson St. 4.4 11.5 15.4 15.0 14.0 12.6 10.6 8.2 5.8 3.9 2.0 0.8 0.2
Grambling St. 5.1 8.8 11.0 12.1 12.1 12.2 11.9 10.8 8.4 6.3 3.9 1.9 0.5
Prairie View 6.4 3.2 5.3 7.5 9.3 10.9 12.7 13.5 13.4 11.1 7.6 4.2 1.4
Alcorn St. 6.3 3.0 6.0 8.1 10.2 11.6 13.1 13.6 12.4 10.4 6.8 3.6 1.2
Florida A&M 8.1 1.0 2.0 3.2 4.5 6.2 8.1 10.5 13.6 16.2 17.2 12.7 4.7
Alabama A&M 8.6 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.2 4.9 7.0 10.1 13.8 16.9 17.9 15.2 7.4
Arkansas Pine Bluff 9.6 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.3 3.9 5.9 9.5 14.4 20.8 25.3 15.4
Mississippi Valley 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.6 3.3 6.2 12.3 24.2 50.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Southern 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.4 5.7 8.6 11.9 14.8 16.2 15.6 11.9 6.5 2.1
Bethune-Cookman 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.9 5.4 8.3 11.8 14.6 15.8 14.8 11.6 7.6 3.7 1.4 0.2
Alabama St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.2 5.8 9.0 12.1 14.8 15.7 14.2 11.2 7.0 3.5 1.1 0.2
Texas Southern 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.0 5.2 8.5 11.4 13.7 15.4 14.0 11.3 7.8 4.6 2.0 0.7 0.1
Jackson St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.8 5.2 8.0 11.3 14.2 15.4 14.3 11.7 8.2 4.5 2.0 0.6 0.1
Grambling St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.8 4.8 7.9 10.8 13.2 13.9 13.7 11.4 8.8 5.8 3.1 1.2 0.4 0.0
Prairie View 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.2 5.9 9.2 12.4 14.4 14.8 13.1 10.5 7.1 4.2 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Alcorn St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.6 5.3 8.3 11.9 14.2 15.0 14.1 11.0 7.8 4.7 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Florida A&M 7 - 11 0.1 0.8 2.6 5.7 9.4 12.5 14.5 14.4 12.7 10.5 7.2 4.7 2.8 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Alabama A&M 6 - 12 0.2 1.0 3.3 6.9 10.9 14.0 15.6 14.8 12.4 8.9 5.8 3.2 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 5 - 13 0.6 3.0 7.7 12.5 16.3 16.9 14.9 11.3 7.7 4.7 2.6 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mississippi Valley 3 - 15 5.6 14.1 19.4 20.0 16.2 11.0 6.9 3.6 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Southern 47.7% 34.9 10.1 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Bethune-Cookman 19.9% 11.8 5.9 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Alabama St. 18.4% 10.8 5.6 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0
Texas Southern 12.3% 6.7 4.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
Jackson St. 11.5% 6.1 3.8 1.3 0.3 0.0
Grambling St. 8.8% 4.7 2.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
Prairie View 3.2% 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Alcorn St. 3.0% 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Florida A&M 1.0% 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Alabama A&M 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Southern 32.6% 32.6% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.3 1.7 4.7 9.1 16.8 67.4 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 17.4% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.3 14.5 82.6 0.0%
Alabama St. 13.4% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 12.0 86.6 0.0%
Texas Southern 9.9% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 9.3 90.1 0.0%
Jackson St. 9.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 8.7 91.0 0.0%
Grambling St. 8.5% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.4 91.5 0.0%
Prairie View 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 3.2 96.8 0.0%
Alcorn St. 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0 3.3 96.7 0.0%
Florida A&M 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 1.7 98.3 0.0%
Alabama A&M 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.8 99.2 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Southern 32.6% 9.5% 27.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 17.4% 10.7% 11.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama St. 13.4% 9.6% 8.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Southern 9.9% 8.3% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jackson St. 9.0% 8.0% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Grambling St. 8.5% 7.9% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Prairie View 3.2% 3.2% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alcorn St. 3.3% 3.2% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida A&M 1.7% 1.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama A&M 0.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 67.3% 0.7 32.7 67.3
2nd Round 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0