Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
224 Southern 34.0%   16   11 - 8 9 - 0 17 - 11 15 - 3 -3.5      -5.2 315 +1.8 127 70.9 106 +0.4 161 +4.8 1
274 Texas Southern 16.5%   7 - 11 7 - 1 14 - 14 14 - 4 -6.3      -6.0 328 -0.3 182 73.0 65 -6.0 264 -0.6 2
279 Bethune-Cookman 14.4%   9 - 13 6 - 3 14 - 17 11 - 7 -6.5      -7.0 342 +0.5 155 72.0 83 -4.5 240 -6.0 4
284 Jackson St. 15.0%   6 - 16 6 - 3 13 - 18 13 - 5 -6.7      -5.4 319 -1.3 214 71.6 90 -6.8 278 -4.8 3
308 Alabama St. 8.4%   8 - 13 5 - 4 14 - 16 11 - 7 -8.5      -4.1 287 -4.4 302 68.5 173 -7.8 294 -9.6 7
320 Alcorn St. 5.7%   5 - 16 5 - 4 11 - 19 11 - 7 -9.4      -6.2 333 -3.3 271 64.6 281 -9.5 317 -8.1 5
339 Grambling St. 1.4%   3 - 16 3 - 6 7 - 21 7 - 11 -11.6      -7.9 352 -3.7 285 63.0 316 -16.9 357 -15.4 8
340 Florida A&M 2.7%   6 - 12 5 - 4 9 - 18 8 - 10 -11.7      -6.3 334 -5.4 327 69.7 139 -9.0 312 -9.6 6
348 Prairie View 1.4%   3 - 18 3 - 6 7 - 23 7 - 11 -12.4      -6.0 327 -6.5 346 76.2 24 -16.5 356 -15.6 9
360 Alabama A&M 0.6%   4 - 15 3 - 6 8 - 20 7 - 11 -14.4      -8.3 354 -6.1 340 75.8 32 -16.4 355 -16.6 10
363 Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.0%   1 - 18 0 - 8 3 - 26 2 - 16 -18.8      -6.9 341 -11.9 364 79.4 9 -27.0 364 -32.6 12
364 Mississippi Valley 0.0%   1 - 19 1 - 8 2 - 27 2 - 16 -25.1      -14.5 364 -10.6 363 62.9 322 -22.3 362 -22.1 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Southern 1.2 83.8 12.1 2.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Texas Southern 2.3 23.4 44.2 19.4 8.5 3.2 1.1 0.2 0.0
Bethune-Cookman 4.0 3.4 14.9 22.9 24.6 16.7 12.0 4.2 1.1 0.3 0.1
Jackson St. 2.9 7.1 34.0 33.8 15.3 6.9 2.4 0.5 0.1
Alabama St. 4.8 1.0 4.4 12.6 22.9 25.5 22.0 8.2 2.6 0.8 0.1
Alcorn St. 4.7 0.5 6.4 14.0 21.8 26.6 21.1 7.5 1.8 0.3 0.0
Grambling St. 8.3 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.6 7.1 18.0 25.0 22.3 23.0 0.9
Florida A&M 6.9 0.0 0.5 2.2 5.5 9.9 17.1 32.5 18.4 10.0 4.0 0.0
Prairie View 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.6 6.5 19.1 29.0 27.4 13.8 0.8 0.0
Alabama A&M 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 4.4 13.6 22.2 27.0 29.4 1.8 0.1
Arkansas Pine Bluff 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 6.7 60.1 31.3
Mississippi Valley 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.9 48.0 48.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Southern 15 - 3 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.2 6.4 14.7 23.6 27.2 18.7 6.6
Texas Southern 14 - 4 0.0 0.3 1.8 7.1 15.5 23.3 25.2 17.8 7.6 1.4
Bethune-Cookman 11 - 7 0.0 0.5 2.5 7.3 16.0 21.9 25.5 16.8 7.9 1.6
Jackson St. 13 - 5 0.1 1.0 4.0 13.2 24.4 30.6 20.4 6.3
Alabama St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.3 1.6 6.0 14.0 24.5 26.4 18.5 7.5 1.3
Alcorn St. 11 - 7 0.1 0.9 4.9 13.2 24.2 28.1 19.4 8.0 1.4
Grambling St. 7 - 11 0.8 5.2 12.7 21.6 24.0 19.2 11.1 4.1 1.2 0.2
Florida A&M 8 - 10 1.9 7.9 17.7 23.7 23.0 15.2 7.7 2.5 0.5 0.0
Prairie View 7 - 11 0.2 2.2 10.1 21.4 27.9 22.0 11.3 4.0 0.8 0.1
Alabama A&M 7 - 11 1.4 6.9 17.0 24.8 24.7 15.6 7.0 2.2 0.3 0.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 2 - 16 6.5 19.8 28.0 24.0 13.8 5.7 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Mississippi Valley 2 - 16 32.7 39.3 20.6 5.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Southern 83.8% 69.2 12.1 2.1 0.3 0.1
Texas Southern 23.4% 11.9 9.4 1.8 0.2 0.1
Bethune-Cookman 3.4% 0.8 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.0
Jackson St. 7.1% 1.7 3.6 1.6 0.2 0.1
Alabama St. 1.0% 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1
Alcorn St. 0.5% 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
Grambling St.
Florida A&M 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Prairie View
Alabama A&M
Arkansas Pine Bluff
Mississippi Valley


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Southern 34.0% 34.0% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.8 3.4 12.3 17.5 66.0 0.0%
Texas Southern 16.5% 16.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.8 15.6 83.5 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 14.4% 14.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.8 13.5 85.6 0.0%
Jackson St. 15.0% 15.0% 0.0% 0.5 14.5 85.0 0.0%
Alabama St. 8.4% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 8.2 91.6 0.0%
Alcorn St. 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 5.7 94.3 0.0%
Grambling St. 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 1.4 98.7 0.0%
Florida A&M 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 2.7 97.3 0.0%
Prairie View 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 1.4 98.7 0.0%
Alabama A&M 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6 99.4 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Southern 34.0% 6.7% 30.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Southern 16.5% 13.0% 10.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 14.4% 11.1% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jackson St. 15.0% 13.7% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama St. 8.4% 7.4% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alcorn St. 5.7% 5.7% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Grambling St. 1.4% 1.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida A&M 2.7% 2.7% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Prairie View 1.4% 1.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama A&M 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 66.7% 0.7 33.3 66.7
2nd Round 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Sweet Sixteen 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0