Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
246 Grambling St. 22.9%   16   6 - 7 2 - 0 16 - 13 11 - 6 -4.8      -3.7 277 -1.1 209 67.4 233 -2.8 217 +2.6 2
256 Southern 18.6%   2 - 10 1 - 1 12 - 16 11 - 7 -5.5      -3.4 270 -2.1 234 76.0 38 -9.8 316 -12.7 6
278 Bethune-Cookman 14.3%   3 - 10 1 - 0 13 - 17 10 - 7 -6.7      -2.3 232 -4.3 314 71.4 117 -7.6 278 +0.4 3
301 Alabama St. 9.5%   3 - 11 1 - 1 12 - 18 10 - 7 -7.8      -2.1 220 -5.7 336 69.8 168 -9.9 317 -14.2 7
303 Alabama A&M 9.7%   5 - 7 1 - 1 14 - 14 10 - 8 -7.9      -4.6 298 -3.3 273 64.4 305 -6.3 260 -14.2 7
306 Prairie View 8.7%   2 - 9 1 - 1 12 - 15 10 - 7 -8.5      -4.5 294 -4.1 305 79.3 16 -8.1 290 -2.1 5
327 Arkansas Pine Bluff 4.9%   3 - 10 2 - 0 11 - 18 10 - 7 -10.4      -4.0 280 -6.5 345 79.1 17 -3.5 226 +4.3 1
335 Texas Southern 3.0%   0 - 11 0 - 2 8 - 19 7 - 10 -10.8      -6.7 333 -4.1 307 74.0 60 -16.3 352 -17.3 9
342 Jackson St. 3.3%   2 - 12 1 - 0 10 - 21 9 - 9 -11.6      -5.9 323 -5.7 334 72.8 82 -10.5 321 +0.1 4
345 Florida A&M 2.6%   1 - 9 0 - 1 8 - 19 7 - 10 -11.8      -6.8 336 -5.0 327 72.0 95 -14.1 342 -18.9 10
346 Alcorn St. 2.5%   1 - 12 0 - 1 9 - 21 8 - 10 -12.1      -6.0 326 -6.1 338 74.4 51 -11.3 325 -23.8 11
365 Mississippi Valley 0.0%   0 - 15 0 - 2 2 - 29 1 - 16 -24.0      -15.2 365 -8.8 362 69.8 171 -21.9 362 -26.1 12





Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Jan 10 278 Bethune-Cookman 74 246 Grambling St. 73 54%   
Sat, Jan 10 327 Arkansas Pine Bluff 80 335 Texas Southern 83 60%   
Sat, Jan 10 301 Alabama St. 81 342 Jackson St. 75 74%   
Sat, Jan 10 303 Alabama A&M 77 346 Alcorn St. 70 76%   
Sat, Jan 10 345 Florida A&M 76 256 Southern 79 62%   
Sat, Jan 10 365 Mississippi Valley 66 306 Prairie View 85 95%   
Mon, Jan 12 278 Bethune-Cookman 80 256 Southern 78 57%   
Mon, Jan 12 327 Arkansas Pine Bluff 83 306 Prairie View 88 68%   
Mon, Jan 12 303 Alabama A&M 76 342 Jackson St. 69 74%   
Mon, Jan 12 301 Alabama St. 83 346 Alcorn St. 75 76%   
Mon, Jan 12 345 Florida A&M 70 246 Grambling St. 74 65%   
Mon, Jan 12 365 Mississippi Valley 64 335 Texas Southern 80 93%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Grambling St. 3.2 33.3 18.2 13.1 10.0 7.9 6.1 4.6 3.1 2.2 1.3 0.4
Southern 3.8 24.7 17.1 13.2 10.5 8.9 7.5 6.0 5.0 3.6 2.3 1.1 0.0
Bethune-Cookman 4.3 19.3 15.4 12.6 11.3 10.0 8.7 7.4 6.1 4.7 3.1 1.5 0.0
Alabama St. 5.2 9.4 11.2 11.4 11.7 11.7 10.8 9.4 9.0 7.3 5.3 2.8 0.0
Alabama A&M 4.9 13.2 12.1 12.0 11.8 10.3 10.0 8.4 8.0 6.7 4.9 2.7 0.0
Prairie View 4.5 13.6 14.8 14.4 12.5 10.4 9.5 7.9 6.4 5.1 3.6 1.8 0.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 5.3 8.0 10.8 11.4 12.2 11.5 11.2 10.7 9.0 7.3 5.2 2.8 0.1
Texas Southern 7.8 1.8 3.3 4.7 5.9 6.6 8.3 9.7 11.5 13.6 16.6 17.4 0.6
Jackson St. 6.3 5.9 7.7 8.5 9.3 9.6 9.9 10.6 11.0 10.9 9.6 6.8 0.2
Florida A&M 8.0 1.7 3.1 3.8 5.2 6.0 7.5 8.9 10.9 13.1 17.1 21.4 1.4
Alcorn St. 7.4 2.7 4.4 5.2 6.4 7.5 8.7 10.0 11.6 13.1 14.6 15.1 0.8
Mississippi Valley 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 6.5 92.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Grambling St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.7 5.6 9.6 13.3 16.1 16.9 14.7 10.8 6.2 2.3 0.4
Southern 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.3 4.7 8.2 11.5 15.0 15.9 15.5 12.4 7.9 3.9 1.4 0.2
Bethune-Cookman 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 3.3 5.9 9.6 14.0 15.6 15.9 13.6 10.5 6.1 2.7 0.9 0.1
Alabama St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.5 5.4 9.3 13.7 16.9 17.4 14.6 10.3 5.7 2.6 0.7 0.1
Alabama A&M 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.4 4.7 8.4 12.3 15.1 16.3 14.9 11.0 7.8 4.0 1.4 0.5 0.1
Prairie View 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.4 6.6 10.9 14.9 16.9 16.7 13.8 8.7 4.3 1.5 0.3
Arkansas Pine Bluff 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 5.4 9.8 14.1 17.9 17.2 14.2 9.9 5.4 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0
Texas Southern 7 - 11 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.4 6.9 10.9 14.5 16.0 15.4 13.1 8.8 5.7 2.6 1.0 0.2 0.0
Jackson St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.2 5.6 9.5 13.1 15.8 15.3 13.9 10.3 7.1 3.6 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Florida A&M 7 - 11 0.1 0.5 1.9 4.6 8.4 12.0 14.5 15.5 14.6 11.3 8.0 4.8 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Alcorn St. 8 - 10 0.2 1.0 2.4 6.0 10.0 13.2 15.6 15.7 13.2 10.2 6.5 3.6 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.1
Mississippi Valley 1 - 17 27.7 34.1 22.1 10.6 4.0 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Grambling St. 33.3% 21.5 8.2 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Southern 24.7% 14.9 6.7 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Bethune-Cookman 19.3% 11.1 5.7 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Alabama St. 9.4% 4.4 3.1 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Alabama A&M 13.2% 7.1 4.1 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Prairie View 13.6% 6.5 4.6 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 8.0% 3.6 2.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Texas Southern 1.8% 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Jackson St. 5.9% 2.9 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0
Florida A&M 1.7% 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Alcorn St. 2.7% 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mississippi Valley


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Grambling St. 22.9% 22.9% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.2 1.1 5.0 16.5 77.1 0.0%
Southern 18.6% 18.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 17.0 81.4 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 14.3% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.8 13.4 85.7 0.0%
Alabama St. 9.5% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 9.2 90.5 0.0%
Alabama A&M 9.7% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.5 9.2 90.3 0.0%
Prairie View 8.7% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 8.3 91.3 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0.1 4.8 95.1 0.0%
Texas Southern 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 3.0 97.0 0.0%
Jackson St. 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0 3.3 96.7 0.0%
Florida A&M 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 2.6 97.4 0.0%
Alcorn St. 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 2.5 97.5 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Grambling St. 22.9% 9.8% 18.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern 18.6% 14.0% 12.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 14.3% 11.1% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama St. 9.5% 8.2% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama A&M 9.7% 7.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Prairie View 8.7% 7.2% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 4.9% 4.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Southern 3.0% 2.9% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jackson St. 3.3% 3.2% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida A&M 2.6% 2.5% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alcorn St. 2.5% 2.4% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 63.3% 0.6 36.7 63.3
2nd Round 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.3
Sweet Sixteen 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0