Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
201 Southern 25.7%   16   1 - 4 0 - 0 15 - 14 13 - 6 -2.5      -3.0 247 +0.5 157 78.1 23 -3.3 217 0.0 1
218 Bethune-Cookman 19.5%   2 - 6 0 - 0 14 - 16 11 - 6 -3.5      -1.3 201 -2.2 241 68.0 222 -6.3 264 0.0 1
266 Alabama A&M 11.9%   3 - 3 0 - 0 15 - 13 11 - 7 -5.8      -5.2 311 -0.7 187 67.6 231 -1.4 193 0.0 1
268 Alabama St. 11.3%   2 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 17 10 - 7 -6.0      -2.0 224 -3.9 308 69.1 194 -5.6 250 0.0 1
284 Grambling St. 8.5%   2 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 16 9 - 8 -6.7      -5.0 306 -1.7 223 65.4 288 -6.0 258 0.0 1
296 Texas Southern 7.4%   0 - 5 0 - 0 11 - 16 9 - 8 -7.6      -4.3 285 -3.3 280 73.2 96 -13.2 341 0.0 1
312 Jackson St. 5.6%   1 - 7 0 - 0 11 - 20 10 - 8 -8.4      -6.6 341 -1.8 229 70.3 164 -6.6 272 0.0 1
322 Prairie View 4.3%   1 - 5 0 - 0 10 - 17 9 - 8 -9.2      -5.9 328 -3.3 276 74.5 61 -9.3 298 0.0 1
333 Alcorn St. 2.7%   1 - 9 0 - 0 10 - 21 9 - 10 -10.5      -5.9 330 -4.6 326 72.4 111 -8.3 291 0.0 1
345 Florida A&M 2.1%   0 - 5 0 - 0 8 - 19 7 - 10 -11.4      -6.6 340 -4.8 331 71.9 125 -12.3 329 0.0 1
358 Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.5%   1 - 8 0 - 0 7 - 22 6 - 11 -14.1      -8.7 358 -5.5 338 78.2 22 -6.3 265 0.0 1
365 Mississippi Valley 0.0%   0 - 8 0 - 0 2 - 29 2 - 15 -22.1      -13.2 365 -8.9 364 70.3 166 -18.5 359 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Dec 2 284 Grambling St. 63 172 Tulane 65   
Tue, Dec 2 345 Florida A&M 82 275 Jacksonville 85   
Tue, Dec 2 312 Jackson St. 73 162 Kennesaw St. 88   
Wed, Dec 3 358 Arkansas Pine Bluff 63 204 Illinois-Chicago 62   
Wed, Dec 3 266 Alabama A&M 80 249 Tennessee St. 53   
Wed, Dec 3 365 Mississippi Valley 52 357 Louisiana Monroe 66   
Wed, Dec 3 333 Alcorn St. 68 6 Iowa St. 132   
Fri, Dec 5 218 Bethune-Cookman 80 352 South Carolina St. 59   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Dec 6 133 Sam Houston St. 81 296 Texas Southern 75 73%   
Sat, Dec 6 358 Arkansas Pine Bluff 66 121 DePaul 86 96%   
Sun, Dec 7 268 Alabama St. 69 239 Tennessee Martin 73 67%   
Sun, Dec 7 266 Alabama A&M 67 164 Lipscomb 75 78%   
Mon, Dec 8 284 Grambling St. 67 219 Southern Miss 74 72%   
Mon, Dec 8 201 Southern 70 50 Texas 87 93%   
Mon, Dec 8 71 Kansas St. 95 365 Mississippi Valley 62 99%   
Wed, Dec 10 201 Southern 71 232 Texas St. 73 55%   
Wed, Dec 10 7 Houston 81 312 Jackson St. 50 99%   
Wed, Dec 10 358 Arkansas Pine Bluff 65 91 Tulsa 87 97%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Southern 2.6 45.6 17.2 11.2 7.6 5.8 4.2 3.0 2.2 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.0
Bethune-Cookman 3.8 19.6 19.3 15.7 12.5 9.8 7.5 5.8 4.3 2.9 1.8 0.6 0.0
Alabama A&M 4.2 17.1 16.5 13.9 12.6 10.5 9.0 7.5 5.5 3.6 2.5 1.3 0.1
Alabama St. 4.5 12.3 15.0 15.0 12.8 11.5 9.6 8.7 6.4 4.4 2.8 1.4 0.2
Grambling St. 5.9 5.5 7.9 9.9 10.3 10.7 11.6 11.7 11.2 9.6 7.3 4.0 0.4
Texas Southern 5.7 6.9 9.7 10.5 10.9 11.2 10.9 10.4 9.3 8.6 6.8 4.3 0.5
Jackson St. 5.3 8.3 11.7 12.0 11.9 11.7 10.7 9.6 8.9 6.9 5.1 2.9 0.3
Prairie View 6.4 3.9 6.3 8.1 9.8 10.6 11.2 12.1 11.6 11.6 9.0 5.1 0.7
Alcorn St. 6.3 4.9 6.7 8.8 9.5 10.2 11.2 11.5 11.4 10.2 8.6 6.0 0.9
Florida A&M 8.2 1.3 2.4 3.6 4.9 6.2 7.4 8.7 11.8 14.9 17.4 17.3 4.2
Arkansas Pine Bluff 9.2 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.2 3.2 4.7 6.8 10.8 15.0 21.6 26.8 6.8
Mississippi Valley 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 2.0 5.7 16.8 74.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Southern 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.0 1.8 3.3 5.1 7.8 10.0 12.2 13.4 13.9 12.3 9.3 5.7 2.9
Bethune-Cookman 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 4.2 6.5 9.9 12.6 14.7 15.3 13.6 10.2 6.2 2.6 0.6
Alabama A&M 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.2 5.3 8.4 11.5 13.3 14.3 13.4 11.5 8.2 5.0 2.4 0.9 0.2
Alabama St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.9 6.1 9.9 12.3 14.3 14.6 13.7 10.6 6.5 3.6 1.2 0.2
Grambling St. 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.7 5.6 8.3 11.0 13.9 13.9 13.8 11.5 8.1 5.0 2.6 1.3 0.3 0.1
Texas Southern 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.8 4.7 7.4 10.3 12.3 13.4 13.5 11.8 9.5 6.7 3.6 1.6 0.5 0.1
Jackson St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 3.4 6.3 8.8 11.5 13.6 14.1 13.0 10.5 7.9 4.7 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.0
Prairie View 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.5 6.6 9.9 12.5 14.3 14.6 12.6 10.2 6.7 3.8 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.0
Alcorn St. 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.7 6.7 9.3 12.2 13.5 13.8 12.8 9.9 7.0 4.7 2.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Florida A&M 7 - 11 0.4 1.4 3.7 7.1 10.0 12.4 14.2 13.7 11.7 9.2 7.1 4.4 2.6 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 6 - 12 0.4 2.0 5.4 10.7 14.8 16.8 16.0 13.2 9.2 5.8 3.1 1.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Mississippi Valley 2 - 16 17.7 26.1 24.0 16.2 8.8 4.3 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Southern 45.6% 34.0 8.8 2.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Bethune-Cookman 19.6% 11.3 5.9 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0
Alabama A&M 17.1% 10.1 5.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
Alabama St. 12.3% 6.8 3.7 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
Grambling St. 5.5% 2.7 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Texas Southern 6.9% 3.6 2.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Jackson St. 8.3% 4.4 2.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
Prairie View 3.9% 1.9 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Alcorn St. 4.9% 2.6 1.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Florida A&M 1.3% 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Mississippi Valley


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Southern 26.1% 26.1% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.2 1.2 4.0 8.4 12.4 73.9 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 19.5% 19.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 5.0 13.0 80.5 0.0%
Alabama A&M 11.9% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.4 8.5 88.1 0.0%
Alabama St. 11.3% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.0 8.8 88.7 0.0%
Grambling St. 8.5% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.1 7.0 91.5 0.0%
Texas Southern 7.4% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 6.6 92.6 0.0%
Jackson St. 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 5.2 94.4 0.0%
Prairie View 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 4.1 95.7 0.0%
Alcorn St. 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.1 2.6 97.3 0.0%
Florida A&M 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.1 2.0 97.9 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Southern 26.1% 6.8% 23.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bethune-Cookman 19.5% 8.2% 16.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama A&M 11.9% 5.1% 9.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alabama St. 11.3% 5.9% 8.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Grambling St. 8.5% 5.0% 6.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Southern 7.4% 5.1% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jackson St. 5.6% 4.3% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Prairie View 4.3% 3.4% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alcorn St. 2.7% 2.5% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida A&M 2.1% 1.9% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississippi Valley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 76.1% 0.8 23.9 76.1
2nd Round 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0