Texas Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.1 #335
Expected Predictive Rating -17.4 #356
Pace 73.2 #69
Improvement -0.5 #215

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #321 D- D+ C- D- D+
Defense #323 D- F D+ F F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #134 1.13 #207 +0.5 #157
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #53 0.70 #264 +1.9 #86
Three Pointers 32% #337 0.85 #342 -7.1 #348
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #315 -4.8 #315
Freethrows 15.2 #289 68% #317 10.3 #315
Second Chance 25.7% #310 1.11 #99 0.29 #248
Turnovers 17.3% #241
Total Offense -5.8 #321

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #166 1.29 #326 -3.0 #281
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #362 0.81 #273 +2.6 #21
Three Pointers 48% #31 1.03 #206 -3.8 #319
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #310 -4.3 #310
Freethrows 22.2 #351 72% #147 16.0 #342
Second Chance 33.1% #286 1.29 #359 0.43 #353
Turnovers 14.9% #276
Total Defense -5.3 #323

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.5% #286 2.1% #346
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.0% #309 6.1% #293
Possession Length 17.5 #189 16.4 #38
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #129 0.22 #323
Improvement -0.3 #198 -0.1 #197

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 3.3% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.5% 0.9% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 20.5% 30.7% 10.5%
Conference Champion 0.5% 1.0% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.7%
First Four2.4% 3.3% 1.5%
First Round1.2% 1.6% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama A&M (Home) - 49.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 30 - 20 - 7
Quad 48 - 138 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 6 @Gonzaga L 43 - 98 0% -20  0 - 1 -31 -20 F C F -9 C+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 6 34 @Texas A&M L 70 - 104 1% -12  0 - 2 -17 -2 B C+ F -12 F D F
 Wed, Nov 12 249 Samford L 90 - 93 OT 38% +1  0 - 3 -11 +2 A F A+ -13 C- F C
 Sat, Nov 15 263 @Texas St. L 67 - 77 21% -12  0 - 4 -13 -6 D- D- F -6 D+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 21 @Vanderbilt L 74 - 109 1% -24  0 - 5 -15 +5 A+ F C -17 D- F C
 Sat, Dec 6 124 Sam Houston St. L 70 - 82 16% -6  0 - 6 -13 -12 F C D+ +1 A+ B- C+
 Sun, Dec 14 71 @Minnesota L 53 - 89 3% -20  0 - 7 -25 -14 F F F -11 F B- C
 Wed, Dec 17 26 @North Carolina St. L 72 - 108 1% -24  0 - 8 -18 +6 F A+ A -23 F F D-
 Mon, Dec 22 258 Abilene Christian L 68 - 75 39% +2  0 - 9 -15 -7 D D C -9 D+ D- C+
 Sat, Jan 3 246 @Southern L 73 - 84 19% -8  0 - 10 0 - 1 -13 -6 F C- F -5 F C D
 Mon, Jan 5 287 @Grambling St. L 67 - 84 26% -9  0 - 11 0 - 2 -21 -6 F A+ D- -16 F F F
 Sat, Jan 10 334 Arkansas Pine Bluff L 66 - 74 61% -8  0 - 12 0 - 3 -22 -13 F F C- -9 F B F
 Mon, Jan 12 365 Mississippi Valley W 84 - 51 92% +19  1 - 12 1 - 3 +6 +4 A- D F +3 A+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 347 @Alcorn St. W 72 - 71 43% +1  2 - 12 2 - 3 -8 +1 F D- A- -9 C+ D+ D-
 Mon, Jan 19 325 @Jackson St. L 89 - 94 35% -5  2 - 13 2 - 4 -12 +8 B- F C+ -21 F D F
 Sat, Jan 24 301 Alabama A&M L 73 - 74 50%
 Mon, Jan 26 311 Alabama St. W 78 - 77 52%
 Sat, Jan 31 317 @Prairie View L 77 - 81 33%
 Sat, Feb 7 313 @Florida A&M L 73 - 78 32%
 Mon, Feb 9 269 @Bethune-Cookman L 73 - 81 24%
 Sat, Feb 14 287 Grambling St. L 74 - 75 47%
 Mon, Feb 16 246 Southern L 76 - 79 37%
 Sat, Feb 21 334 @Arkansas Pine Bluff L 79 - 82 39%
 Sat, Feb 21 365 @Mississippi Valley W 77 - 67 82%
 Thu, Feb 26 347 Alcorn St. W 79 - 75 65%
 Sat, Feb 28 325 Jackson St. W 81 - 79 58%
 Thu, Mar 5 317 Prairie View W 80 - 78 55%
Totals 8 - 19 7 - 10 -11 -6 D- D+ C- -5 D- F D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5 1st
2nd 0.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 0.9 0.1 2.5 3rd
4th 0.9 2.6 0.3 0.0 3.8 4th
5th 0.2 3.6 1.4 0.0 5.2 5th
6th 1.9 4.7 0.3 6.8 6th
7th 0.6 6.0 2.1 8.7 7th
8th 0.2 4.3 6.7 0.3 11.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.9 8.3 2.5 0.0 13.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.6 9.0 5.9 0.3 18.2 10th
11th 0.4 2.4 6.6 9.9 7.0 1.2 0.0 27.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.5 2.4 7.1 12.8 19.0 20.2 17.5 11.5 6.0 2.2 0.7 0.1 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 78.9% 0.1    0.1 0.0
12-6 43.0% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 7.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.7% 13.3% 13.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.6
11-7 2.2% 10.3% 10.3% 16.0 0.2 2.0
10-8 6.0% 7.9% 7.9% 16.0 0.5 5.6
9-9 11.5% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 0.8 10.7
8-10 17.5% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.7 16.9
7-11 20.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 20.0
6-12 19.0% 19.0
5-13 12.8% 12.8
4-14 7.1% 7.1
3-15 2.4% 2.4
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 16.0 97.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%