Sam Houston St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.6#170
Expected Predictive Rating-1.5#182
Pace68.5#168
Improvement+1.2#148

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#110
First Shot+2.9#98
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#232
Layup/Dunks-0.2#187
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#51
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#145
Freethrows-0.2#184
Improvement-1.2#246

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#260
First Shot-0.4#192
After Offensive Rebounds-2.4#337
Layups/Dunks+0.9#135
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#179
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#266
Freethrows+0.2#173
Improvement+2.3#70
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 3.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.4% 2.9% 0.0%
First Round1.1% 2.3% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 20 - 60 - 11
Quad 36 - 76 - 17
Quad 45 - 211 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 83   @ Nevada L 75-91 17%     0 - 1 -6.6 +8.0 -14.8
  Nov 09, 2024 275   @ Tarleton St. W 91-62 62%     1 - 1 +25.4 +14.6 +8.5
  Nov 12, 2024 27   @ Baylor L 67-104 6%     1 - 2 -19.5 -1.8 -16.0
  Nov 17, 2024 181   @ Lamar W 85-72 42%     2 - 2 +14.5 +19.0 -3.9
  Nov 27, 2024 178   Appalachian St. L 63-66 52%     2 - 3 -4.1 -2.2 -2.0
  Nov 29, 2024 111   @ UNC Wilmington L 60-69 25%     2 - 4 -2.6 -6.5 +3.1
  Nov 30, 2024 256   Colgate W 82-78 67%     3 - 4 -1.1 +10.7 -11.6
  Dec 03, 2024 42   @ Indiana L 71-97 9%     3 - 5 -11.4 -0.4 -8.6
  Dec 07, 2024 279   Texas Southern W 87-71 80%     4 - 5 +6.6 +18.3 -10.9
  Dec 21, 2024 60   @ Pittsburgh L 78-110 12%     4 - 6 -19.8 +7.2 -25.8
  Jan 02, 2025 125   @ New Mexico St. L 71-75 30%     4 - 7 0 - 1 +0.9 +9.0 -8.4
  Jan 04, 2025 159   @ UTEP L 72-81 37%     4 - 8 0 - 2 -6.1 +4.4 -10.8
  Jan 09, 2025 71   Liberty L 68-76 29%     4 - 9 0 - 3 -3.0 -0.2 -2.8
  Jan 11, 2025 257   Florida International W 81-74 76%     5 - 9 1 - 3 -0.9 +5.3 -6.4
  Jan 16, 2025 137   @ Kennesaw St. L 69-75 OT 32%     5 - 10 1 - 4 -1.8 -8.9 +7.8
  Jan 18, 2025 124   @ Jacksonville St. L 62-70 29%     5 - 11 1 - 5 -3.0 -1.1 -2.8
  Jan 23, 2025 118   Middle Tennessee L 75-77 47%     5 - 12 1 - 6 -1.8 +11.8 -13.9
  Jan 25, 2025 154   Western Kentucky L 66-75 57%     5 - 13 1 - 7 -11.5 -4.3 -7.5
  Feb 01, 2025 119   @ Louisiana Tech L 61-66 OT 28%     5 - 14 1 - 8 +0.5 -11.5 +12.2
  Feb 06, 2025 257   @ Florida International L 82-85 OT 57%     5 - 15 1 - 9 -5.4 +1.1 -6.1
  Feb 08, 2025 71   @ Liberty L 61-64 15%     5 - 16 1 - 10 +7.6 +0.2 +7.1
  Feb 13, 2025 124   Jacksonville St. W 66-61 50%     6 - 16 2 - 10 +4.5 -3.9 +8.6
  Feb 15, 2025 137   Kennesaw St. W 78-76 53%     7 - 16 3 - 10 +0.7 +5.0 -4.3
  Feb 20, 2025 154   @ Western Kentucky W 78-62 36%     8 - 16 4 - 10 +19.0 +10.7 +8.7
  Feb 22, 2025 118   @ Middle Tennessee L 70-74 27%     8 - 17 4 - 11 +1.7 +8.9 -7.7
  Mar 01, 2025 119   Louisiana Tech L 66-90 48%     8 - 18 4 - 12 -24.0 -2.7 -22.8
  Mar 06, 2025 159   UTEP W 89-87 58%     9 - 18 5 - 12 -0.6 +9.1 -9.9
  Mar 08, 2025 125   New Mexico St. W 76-69 50%     10 - 18 6 - 12 +6.3 +18.0 -10.6
  Mar 11, 2025 159   UTEP L 75-76 47%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 100.0 100.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12 100.0% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 1.5 98.6
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 16.0 1.5 98.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.5% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.5%
Lose Out 53.2%