Oregon St.
West Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.5#76
Expected Predictive Rating+7.3#77
Pace63.0#318
Improvement-2.3#287

Offense
Total Offense+5.9#47
First Shot+5.6#46
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#165
Layup/Dunks+2.0#108
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#170
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#100
Freethrows+1.2#105
Improvement+2.3#63

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#132
First Shot+2.3#100
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#250
Layups/Dunks+1.2#124
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#104
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#231
Freethrows+1.1#105
Improvement-4.6#353
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.1% 6.0% 2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.8% 2.2% 0.8%
Average Seed 10.9 10.8 11.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.0% 99.9% 96.7%
Conference Champion 1.0% 1.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.5% 1.8% 0.8%
First Round4.2% 4.9% 2.4%
Second Round1.0% 1.2% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Washington St. (Home) - 70.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 6
Quad 22 - 34 - 9
Quad 34 - 18 - 10
Quad 414 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 292   Utah Tech W 80-57 93%     1 - 0 +13.4 +2.5 +11.0
  Nov 08, 2024 286   Weber St. W 76-48 93%     2 - 0 +18.7 +4.1 +17.2
  Nov 15, 2024 317   Cal St. Fullerton W 70-51 95%     3 - 0 +7.3 +2.0 +7.9
  Nov 21, 2024 45   Oregon L 75-78 44%     3 - 1 +6.1 +10.5 -4.5
  Nov 25, 2024 70   @ North Texas L 55-58 39%     3 - 2 +7.3 +1.1 +5.5
  Nov 30, 2024 216   UC Davis W 90-57 89%     4 - 2 +27.4 +25.0 +4.7
  Dec 07, 2024 249   Idaho W 78-62 91%     5 - 2 +8.3 +6.4 +3.7
  Dec 14, 2024 67   UC Irvine W 67-55 58%     6 - 2 +17.5 +0.1 +17.3
  Dec 17, 2024 337   Sacramento St. W 82-45 97%     7 - 2 +23.0 +8.1 +16.6
  Dec 22, 2024 131   College of Charleston W 74-65 71%     8 - 2 +10.7 -0.6 +11.1
  Dec 23, 2024 188   Oakland W 80-74 OT 80%     9 - 2 +4.7 +7.6 -2.8
  Dec 25, 2024 48   Nebraska L 66-78 38%     9 - 3 -1.4 +5.7 -8.3
  Dec 30, 2024 299   Portland W 89-79 94%     10 - 3 1 - 0 -0.2 +17.5 -16.8
  Jan 02, 2025 136   @ Loyola Marymount L 61-82 63%     10 - 4 1 - 1 -17.0 -3.0 -15.7
  Jan 04, 2025 311   San Diego W 81-54 95%     11 - 4 2 - 1 +15.9 +8.9 +8.5
  Jan 09, 2025 64   @ Santa Clara L 81-82 OT 37%     11 - 5 2 - 2 +10.0 +5.9 +4.1
  Jan 11, 2025 302   @ Pacific W 91-55 88%     12 - 5 3 - 2 +30.5 +21.9 +11.3
  Jan 16, 2025 11   Gonzaga W 97-89 OT 23%     13 - 5 4 - 2 +23.3 +20.1 +2.4
  Jan 18, 2025 72   @ San Francisco L 70-81 40%     13 - 6 4 - 3 -0.9 +7.5 -9.2
  Jan 23, 2025 217   Pepperdine W 83-63 89%     14 - 6 5 - 3 +14.4 +20.8 -3.3
  Jan 25, 2025 64   Santa Clara W 83-69 56%     15 - 6 6 - 3 +20.0 +16.8 +4.0
  Jan 28, 2025 11   @ Gonzaga L 60-98 12%     15 - 7 6 - 4 -17.8 -1.2 -19.5
  Feb 06, 2025 103   Washington St. W 77-72 71%    
  Feb 08, 2025 31   St. Mary's L 64-68 37%    
  Feb 13, 2025 299   @ Portland W 80-67 87%    
  Feb 15, 2025 302   Pacific W 80-62 96%    
  Feb 20, 2025 217   @ Pepperdine W 76-68 76%    
  Feb 22, 2025 311   @ San Diego W 80-66 89%    
  Feb 27, 2025 72   San Francisco W 72-70 60%    
  Mar 01, 2025 31   @ St. Mary's L 61-70 18%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 1.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 4.4 1.2 6.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 5.6 20.2 9.0 0.2 35.2 3rd
4th 0.0 2.0 15.1 7.8 0.1 25.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.6 11.4 10.4 0.7 24.1 5th
6th 0.3 2.5 3.1 0.2 6.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.2 1.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 1.0 5.1 16.8 31.4 29.8 13.7 2.3 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 37.8% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0
13-5 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 2.3% 32.2% 11.7% 20.4% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 1.6 23.2%
13-5 13.7% 11.3% 6.2% 5.1% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.2 0.1 12.1 5.4%
12-6 29.8% 5.5% 4.1% 1.4% 11.0 0.1 1.4 0.2 28.1 1.4%
11-7 31.4% 2.9% 2.5% 0.4% 11.2 0.0 0.7 0.2 30.5 0.4%
10-8 16.8% 1.1% 1.1% 0.1% 11.4 0.1 0.1 16.6 0.1%
9-9 5.1% 0.8% 0.8% 11.8 0.0 0.0 5.1
8-10 1.0% 1.0
7-11 0.1% 0.1
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.1% 3.3% 1.7% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 3.7 0.6 95.0 1.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 8.7 3.7 7.4 11.1 14.8 33.3 18.5 11.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6% 36.4% 10.5 20.0 16.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.4% 18.9% 10.9 3.5 14.7 0.7