Oregon St.
West Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.7#65
Expected Predictive Rating+7.6#85
Pace63.6#313
Improvement+1.1#108

Offense
Total Offense+3.2#89
First Shot+3.3#86
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#187
Layup/Dunks-0.1#185
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#132
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#88
Freethrows-0.2#189
Improvement+0.1#166

Defense
Total Defense+5.5#44
First Shot+5.5#38
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#188
Layups/Dunks+4.1#50
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#252
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#264
Freethrows+3.9#8
Improvement+1.1#102
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.1% 12.8% 6.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.1% 6.2% 2.2%
Average Seed 10.3 10.2 10.8
.500 or above 99.3% 99.8% 98.2%
.500 or above in Conference 94.2% 95.2% 91.7%
Conference Champion 6.2% 7.0% 4.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.7% 3.2% 1.3%
First Round9.8% 11.3% 6.1%
Second Round4.1% 4.9% 2.1%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 1.6% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: College of Charleston (Neutral) - 72.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 5
Quad 23 - 34 - 8
Quad 34 - 18 - 9
Quad 412 - 021 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 287   Utah Tech W 80-57 95%     1 - 0 +13.2 +1.9 +11.3
  Nov 08, 2024 208   Weber St. W 76-48 90%     2 - 0 +22.8 +6.1 +19.2
  Nov 15, 2024 275   Cal St. Fullerton W 70-51 94%     3 - 0 +9.8 +3.6 +8.7
  Nov 21, 2024 23   Oregon L 75-78 41%     3 - 1 +8.0 +11.3 -3.5
  Nov 25, 2024 80   @ North Texas L 55-58 45%     3 - 2 +7.0 +0.9 +5.5
  Nov 30, 2024 185   UC Davis W 90-57 88%     4 - 2 +28.8 +25.5 +5.6
  Dec 07, 2024 279   Idaho W 78-62 95%     5 - 2 +6.4 +7.1 +1.2
  Dec 14, 2024 60   UC Irvine W 67-55 60%     6 - 2 +18.2 +0.0 +18.1
  Dec 17, 2024 335   Sacramento St. W 82-45 97%     7 - 2 +23.6 +8.7 +16.7
  Dec 22, 2024 121   College of Charleston W 74-68 72%    
  Dec 30, 2024 325   Portland W 79-58 98%    
  Jan 02, 2025 165   @ Loyola Marymount W 69-63 72%    
  Jan 04, 2025 319   San Diego W 79-58 97%    
  Jan 09, 2025 72   @ Santa Clara L 69-71 43%    
  Jan 11, 2025 277   @ Pacific W 73-61 87%    
  Jan 16, 2025 4   Gonzaga L 69-77 22%    
  Jan 18, 2025 59   @ San Francisco L 64-68 37%    
  Jan 23, 2025 237   Pepperdine W 77-61 93%    
  Jan 25, 2025 72   Santa Clara W 72-68 65%    
  Jan 28, 2025 4   @ Gonzaga L 66-80 10%    
  Feb 06, 2025 77   Washington St. W 73-68 66%    
  Feb 08, 2025 43   St. Mary's W 64-63 54%    
  Feb 13, 2025 325   @ Portland W 76-61 91%    
  Feb 15, 2025 277   Pacific W 76-58 95%    
  Feb 20, 2025 237   @ Pepperdine W 74-64 81%    
  Feb 22, 2025 319   @ San Diego W 76-61 90%    
  Feb 27, 2025 59   San Francisco W 67-65 59%    
  Mar 01, 2025 43   @ St. Mary's L 61-66 33%    
Projected Record 20 - 8 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.2 2.0 0.8 0.1 6.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 7.3 9.5 4.6 0.9 24.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.3 9.1 8.8 2.1 0.1 22.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.5 8.4 6.9 1.1 0.0 19.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.3 6.3 5.1 0.8 0.0 14.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.8 2.9 0.5 9.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.7 0.1 3.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.5 3.6 6.9 12.0 16.3 18.4 17.3 12.7 6.9 2.9 0.8 0.1 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.7 0.1
16-2 69.5% 2.0    1.2 0.8 0.0
15-3 31.7% 2.2    0.8 1.2 0.2 0.0
14-4 8.4% 1.1    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1
13-5 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.2% 6.2 2.9 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 23.5% 76.5% 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.8% 89.1% 27.6% 61.5% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 85.0%
16-2 2.9% 65.9% 21.3% 44.6% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.0 56.7%
15-3 6.9% 39.5% 17.8% 21.7% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 0.1 4.2 26.4%
14-4 12.7% 19.2% 11.6% 7.7% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 0.2 10.2 8.7%
13-5 17.3% 9.7% 7.8% 1.9% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.4 15.6 2.1%
12-6 18.4% 4.6% 4.1% 0.5% 11.3 0.0 0.5 0.3 17.5 0.5%
11-7 16.3% 2.8% 2.7% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 15.9 0.1%
10-8 12.0% 1.4% 1.4% 0.1% 11.7 0.1 0.1 11.8 0.1%
9-9 6.9% 0.8% 0.8% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.9
8-10 3.6% 0.8% 0.8% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5
7-11 1.5% 0.4% 0.4% 12.3 0.0 0.0 1.5
6-12 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 13.0 0.0 0.5
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.1% 6.3% 4.7% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.9 2.0 5.6 1.4 0.0 88.9 5.1%