Oregon St.
West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.3 #195
Expected Predictive Rating -1.0 #179
Pace 64.1 #309
Improvement -2.3 #287

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #180 C- C D+ A+ C
Defense #230 C C D D- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #293 1.05 #305 -4.3 #322
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #226 0.83 #77 -0.4 #194
Three Pointers 48% #55 1.02 #174 +3.5 #74
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #217 -1.1 #218
Freethrows 21.0 #21 78% #30 16.4 #10
Second Chance 24.5% #328 1.26 #11 0.31 #198
Turnovers 17.6% #259
Total Offense -0.5 #180

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #64 1.12 #131 -1.8 #241
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #295 0.74 #137 +1.6 #67
Three Pointers 40% #203 0.99 #144 +0.9 #144
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #161 +0.7 #160
Freethrows 19.5 #292 76% #329 14.8 #318
Second Chance 32.6% #261 0.95 #59 0.31 #153
Turnovers 14.4% #302
Total Defense -1.7 #230

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.1% #189 1.6% #322
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.3% #213 -2.9% #131
Possession Length 17.7 #211 17.4 #192
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #348 0.18 #210
Improvement -1.0 #239 -1.3 #269

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.5 n/a
.500 or above 5.3% 12.6% 2.1%
.500 or above in Conference 4.0% 10.2% 1.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 10.6% 2.8% 14.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Marymount (Away) - 30.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 7
Quad 37 - 88 - 15
Quad 46 - 314 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 147 North Dakota St. W 67 - 65 50% +1  1 - 0 -0 -3 C+ F C+ +3 B A+ F
 Fri, Nov 7 151 Illinois-Chicago W 76 - 73 51% +3  2 - 0 +1 +5 A+ A+ F -4 F A+ B+
 Wed, Nov 12 127 North Texas W 66 - 64 45% -6  3 - 0 +1 +5 C- D A+ -4 F C A
 Mon, Nov 17 68 @Oregon L 75 - 87 11% -7  3 - 1 -1 +9 C B D+ -10 D- C D-
 Fri, Nov 21 271 Evansville L 69 - 73 65% -4  3 - 2 -10 -1 F A+ D- -9 C F D
 Sat, Nov 22 227 Iona L 84 - 91 2OT 56% +5  3 - 3 -11 -4 C F D+ -5 C C+ D
 Mon, Nov 24 176 Massachusetts L 65 - 73 46% -2  3 - 4 -9 -4 B F F -6 A- F D-
 Sat, Nov 29 142 California Baptist L 69 - 75 49% -2  3 - 5 -8 -1 B+ F F -7 F A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 204 Vermont W 80 - 58 63% +16  4 - 5 +16 +13 A+ D+ D +6 A+ A- C
 Sat, Dec 6 284 Southern Utah W 81 - 70 77% +11  5 - 5 +1 +5 A D+ F -4 B- F C-
 Sat, Dec 13 152 Montana St. W 67 - 57 51% +4  6 - 5 +8 -1 F A+ D+ +9 A+ F B-
 Wed, Dec 17 124 Sam Houston St. L 75 - 85 43% -8  6 - 6 -11 -3 C F B+ -7 C+ C- C
 Sun, Dec 21 88 @Arizona St. W 78 - 75 14% -1  7 - 6 +12 +12 A- F B +1 A+ A+ D+
 Sun, Dec 28 54 Santa Clara L 64 - 102 18% -22  7 - 7 0 - 1 -31 -5 C D- D- -27 F A+ D-
 Tue, Dec 30 101 San Francisco W 70 - 62 35% +3  8 - 7 1 - 1 +10 +5 A+ F D- +5 A+ A+ D+
 Fri, Jan 2 132 @Pacific L 53 - 84 25% -17  8 - 8 1 - 2 -26 -12 F C+ F -19 F C- F
 Sun, Jan 4 141 @Washington St. L 67 - 81 27% -11  8 - 9 1 - 3 -10 -1 C- B- C- -10 C F C
 Thu, Jan 8 121 Seattle W 68 - 55 42% +2  9 - 9 2 - 3 +13 +2 F A+ C+ +11 A+ A+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 210 @Portland L 76 - 82 42% +2  9 - 10 2 - 4 -6 +9 B D- A -15 B- F F
 Wed, Jan 14 155 Loyola Marymount W 76 - 70 52% +1  10 - 10 3 - 4 +3 +5 F A+ A -1 A+ F A
 Sat, Jan 17 132 Pacific L 64 - 81 46% -6  10 - 11 3 - 5 -18 -2 D C C -19 F C+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 42 @St. Mary's L 51 - 81 6% -14  10 - 12 3 - 6 -15 -8 F F C -10 C D- F
 Wed, Jan 28 155 @Loyola Marymount L 66 - 72 30%
 Sat, Jan 31 209 @San Diego L 74 - 76 42%
 Wed, Feb 4 141 Washington St. L 73 - 74 49%
 Sat, Feb 7 6 Gonzaga L 65 - 85 3%
 Thu, Feb 12 101 @San Francisco L 65 - 75 17%
 Sun, Feb 15 121 @Seattle L 63 - 71 23%
 Sat, Feb 21 279 Pepperdine W 72 - 65 76%
 Wed, Feb 25 209 San Diego W 77 - 73 65%
 Sat, Feb 28 54 @Santa Clara L 66 - 82 7%
Totals 13 - 18 6 - 12 -2 -1 C- C D+ -2 C C D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.2 1.0 0.5 0.1 1.7 4th
5th 0.1 2.6 1.7 0.1 0.0 4.5 5th
6th 0.0 2.3 5.1 0.6 8.0 6th
7th 0.7 9.0 2.8 0.0 12.6 7th
8th 0.1 6.3 9.0 0.3 15.7 8th
9th 0.0 2.9 14.4 2.4 0.0 19.8 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 10.6 7.0 0.1 18.9 10th
11th 0.5 5.9 8.0 0.7 15.1 11th
12th 1.2 2.2 0.4 3.7 12th
Total 1.8 9.2 22.0 29.1 23.0 11.0 3.3 0.6 0.1 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.1% 0.1
10-8 0.6% 0.6
9-9 3.3% 0.2% 0.2% 12.0 0.0 3.3
8-10 11.0% 11.0
7-11 23.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 23.0
6-12 29.1% 29.1
5-13 22.0% 22.0
4-14 9.2% 9.2
3-15 1.8% 1.8
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.5 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.8%