North Texas
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.8#70
Expected Predictive Rating+7.9#70
Pace56.2#362
Improvement-1.6#262

Offense
Total Offense+1.1#147
First Shot-1.0#209
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#60
Layup/Dunks-3.3#296
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#219
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#194
Freethrows+3.4#23
Improvement-1.0#247

Defense
Total Defense+6.7#34
First Shot+4.5#55
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#31
Layups/Dunks+6.4#22
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#96
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#232
Freethrows-1.9#308
Improvement-0.6#220
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.8% 22.7% 17.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Average Seed 11.7 11.6 11.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
Conference Champion 8.4% 9.8% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
First Round21.6% 22.5% 17.5%
Second Round5.2% 5.6% 3.3%
Sweet Sixteen1.2% 1.2% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tulane (Home) - 81.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 24 - 44 - 6
Quad 310 - 214 - 8
Quad 47 - 121 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 230   Evansville W 80-63 90%     1 - 0 +10.6 +14.1 -2.0
  Nov 13, 2024 92   @ Minnesota W 54-51 47%     2 - 0 +11.5 -2.0 +14.2
  Nov 18, 2024 87   @ McNeese St. L 61-68 45%     2 - 1 +2.0 -1.8 +3.3
  Nov 25, 2024 76   Oregon St. W 58-55 61%     3 - 1 +8.0 -2.8 +11.4
  Nov 28, 2024 108   Northern Iowa W 68-48 64%     4 - 1 +24.0 +1.9 +23.8
  Nov 29, 2024 49   Utah St. L 57-61 41%     4 - 2 +6.2 -6.4 +12.1
  Dec 06, 2024 107   @ High Point L 71-76 55%     4 - 3 +1.5 -3.5 +5.0
  Dec 18, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 83-42 99.6%    5 - 3 +13.4 +11.7 +8.3
  Dec 20, 2024 145   Appalachian St. W 68-64 81%     6 - 3 +2.7 +13.9 -10.2
  Dec 22, 2024 290   Houston Christian W 62-46 94%     7 - 3 +6.4 -0.3 +10.8
  Dec 31, 2024 96   UAB W 78-75 70%     8 - 3 1 - 0 +5.4 +10.2 -4.4
  Jan 05, 2025 41   @ Memphis L 64-68 27%     8 - 4 1 - 1 +10.1 +4.0 +5.9
  Jan 08, 2025 192   Rice W 81-59 86%     9 - 4 2 - 1 +18.0 +24.8 -1.7
  Jan 14, 2025 150   @ East Carolina W 69-60 67%     10 - 4 3 - 1 +12.3 +8.9 +4.8
  Jan 18, 2025 202   @ Texas San Antonio W 72-57 76%     11 - 4 4 - 1 +15.4 +10.0 +8.1
  Jan 22, 2025 125   Temple W 76-67 78%     12 - 4 5 - 1 +8.6 +6.2 +2.9
  Jan 26, 2025 106   Florida Atlantic W 77-64 72%     13 - 4 6 - 1 +14.7 +14.3 +2.5
  Jan 29, 2025 134   @ Wichita St. W 58-54 64%     14 - 4 7 - 1 +8.0 -1.3 +10.2
  Feb 01, 2025 202   Texas San Antonio L 50-54 87%     14 - 5 7 - 2 -8.5 -18.5 +9.3
  Feb 03, 2025 96   @ UAB L 61-64 51%     14 - 6 7 - 3 +4.4 -6.1 +10.2
  Feb 08, 2025 141   Tulane W 66-57 82%    
  Feb 11, 2025 192   @ Rice W 65-58 72%    
  Feb 19, 2025 238   Tulsa W 69-54 92%    
  Feb 23, 2025 177   @ South Florida W 66-60 70%    
  Feb 27, 2025 106   @ Florida Atlantic W 68-67 52%    
  Mar 03, 2025 134   Wichita St. W 69-60 80%    
  Mar 06, 2025 221   Charlotte W 68-54 91%    
  Mar 09, 2025 125   @ Temple W 67-64 60%    
Projected Record 20 - 8 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 3.3 4.3 8.4 1st
2nd 0.4 6.0 19.6 20.5 6.7 53.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.1 10.7 10.0 2.3 0.1 26.3 3rd
4th 0.6 3.9 2.9 0.2 7.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.6 0.3 3.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.1 1.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.1 0.5 2.8 9.1 19.9 30.5 26.1 11.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 38.7% 4.3    1.4 2.5 0.4
14-4 12.7% 3.3    0.7 1.8 0.8 0.0
13-5 2.5% 0.8    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.4% 8.4 2.2 4.6 1.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 11.0% 28.9% 26.3% 2.6% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.3 0.5 7.8 3.6%
14-4 26.1% 26.1% 25.5% 0.7% 11.5 0.0 3.3 3.4 0.1 19.3 0.9%
13-5 30.5% 22.7% 22.6% 0.1% 11.9 1.5 4.8 0.5 23.6 0.1%
12-6 19.9% 17.8% 17.8% 0.1% 12.1 0.4 2.5 0.6 0.0 16.4 0.1%
11-7 9.1% 10.9% 10.9% 12.3 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 8.1
10-8 2.8% 10.5% 10.5% 12.4 0.2 0.1 2.5
9-9 0.5% 8.3% 8.3% 12.0 0.0 0.4
8-10 0.1% 0.0 0.1
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 21.8% 21.3% 0.5% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 7.6 12.1 1.7 0.0 78.2 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.9% 100.0% 11.0 0.3 3.1 11.0 70.3 15.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.2% 5.3% 11.2 4.0 1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.6% 3.1% 11.1 2.7 0.4