East Carolina
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.1 252
Expected Predictive Rating -7.4 286
Pace 70.3 134
Improvement +3.7 48

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ #280 D- C+ C- B- C-
Defense C #206 C- D+ C B- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 109 52% 306 -0.7 206
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% 76 35% 277 +1.3 106
Three Pointers 33% 335 29% 351 -6.8 349
1st FG Attempt 0.89 344 -6.2 343
Second Chance 32.6% 118 1.00 208 0.33 140
Turnovers 17.4% 209
Freethrows 0.34 67 71% 233 0.24 100
Total Offense -4.1 280

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 239 57% 145 +1.5 125
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 141 39% 223 -0.6 240
Three Pointers 42% 153 36% 284 -1.9 282
1st FG Attempt 1.04 215 -1.1 215
Second Chance 30.8% 194 1.15 327 0.35 286
Turnovers 17.2% 169
Freethrows 0.27 60 74% 260 0.19 78
Total Defense -1.0 206

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.5 252 -0.2 121
Shot Type Accuracy -5.7 343 +1.3 229
Possession Length 17.2 160 16.8 100
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 195 0.20 291
Improvement +4.0 #21 -0.3 #208

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 1% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 1% 0% 1%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Rice (Away) - 32.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 8
Quad 32 - 84 - 15
Quad 46 - 710 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 274 Georgia Southern W 92 - 89 66% +2  62% 1 - 0 D+ -6 C- -2 F+ A B D+ -5 D F B-
 Sat, Nov 8 128 @Richmond L 72 - 87 17% -10  18% 1 - 1 D -10 D- -6 D D C- C- -3 D B+ C
 Tue, Nov 18 113 @UNC Wilmington L 60 - 85 15% -12  7% 1 - 2 F -19 F -10 F D+ C- F+ -9 F C+ B+
 Fri, Nov 21 256 Charleston Southern L 65 - 77 63% -7  0% 1 - 3 F -20 F -14 F+ B- D D -6 F+ A F
 Tue, Nov 25 10 Michigan St. L 56 - 89 2% -22  0% 1 - 4 D- -13 F+ -9 C+ C F C- -3 D C- D
 Thu, Nov 27 134 St. Bonaventure L 58 - 67 26% -3  8% 1 - 5 D+ -7 F -19 F F+ F A +12 A+ B- B
 Tue, Dec 2 348 Maryland Eastern Shore W 68 - 56 83% +5  60% 2 - 5 C- -3 C +0 B D+ C- C -1 D- C+ F+
 Sat, Dec 6 302 UNC Greensboro L 78 - 82 72% -2  24% 2 - 6 F+ -15 D -5 F A+ F F+ -10 C+ F C
 Thu, Dec 11 161 Appalachian St. L 54 - 67 43% -9  0% 2 - 7 F+ -16 F -17 F C- C+ C -1 D F A+
 Sun, Dec 14 202 Buffalo W 73 - 70 52% -8  21% 3 - 7 C- -3 D- -6 F A- A+ B- +4 A D- B
 Wed, Dec 17 272 Presbyterian W 74 - 53 66% +10  98% 4 - 7 B+ +12 D+ -4 B+ D+ F A+ +16 A+ D A+
 Mon, Dec 22 26 @North Carolina L 51 - 99 3% -24  1% 4 - 8 F -30 F -21 F D F D+ -5 F D+ B+
 Wed, Dec 31 174 Tulane L 70 - 79 46% -1  32% 4 - 9 0 - 1 D- -13 D+ -3 D D A+ F+ -11 D- F B+
 Wed, Jan 7 148 @Temple L 67 - 75 20% -9  0% 4 - 10 0 - 2 C- -4 D+ -3 B- C- D- C- -2 A- F B-
 Sun, Jan 11 118 UAB L 85 - 87 OT 32% -2  26% 4 - 11 0 - 3 C- -2 D+ -4 D+ B F+ C+ +2 B- C- D
 Wed, Jan 14 62 @South Florida L 71 - 82 7% -11  1% 4 - 12 0 - 4 C +1 D+ -3 D C- A B +5 C A+ F
 Sun, Jan 18 168 Charlotte L 70 - 73 44% -7  6% 4 - 13 0 - 5 D+ -7 D -5 D- D+ A+ C -1 F D+ A+
 Wed, Jan 21 96 @Wichita St. L 60 - 77 11% -14  0% 4 - 14 0 - 6 D -9 D -5 F D A+ D+ -5 A- F D
 Fri, Jan 23 144 @North Texas W 63 - 59 19% +3  86% 5 - 14 1 - 6 B +8 C +0 D A+ F A- +8 A+ C- F
 Wed, Jan 28 220 Rice L 77 - 83 54% -7  2% 5 - 15 1 - 7 D- -12 D+ -3 F+ B- B+ D- -9 F D- C+
 Sun, Feb 1 114 @Florida Atlantic W 76 - 75 15% -1  24% 6 - 15 2 - 7 B- +7 B +7 D+ A- B- C +0 D- C A+
 Sat, Feb 7 148 Temple L 73 - 81 39% -5  19% 6 - 16 2 - 8 D -10 C+ +2 C- C+ A+ F -13 C D+ F
 Wed, Feb 11 350 Texas San Antonio W 88 - 72 84% +12  89% 7 - 16 3 - 8 C +0 B- +4 F A+ A D+ -4 C D+ D-
 Sat, Feb 14 220 @Rice L 70 - 75 32%
 Wed, Feb 18 96 Wichita St. L 67 - 74 24%
 Sat, Feb 21 168 @Charlotte L 68 - 76 24%
 Wed, Feb 25 350 @Texas San Antonio W 77 - 72 67%
 Sun, Mar 1 86 Memphis L 68 - 76 22%
 Thu, Mar 5 70 Tulsa L 72 - 82 17%
 Sun, Mar 8 118 @UAB L 70 - 81 15%
Totals 9 - 21 5 - 13 -5 D+ -4 D- C+ C- C -1 C- D+ C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D D+ F+ D- 41% 26% 33% C- D- C+ C- C+ C- B C- B- C C+ C- D+ C- 37% 22% 42% C+ C- C D- D+ C B D+ B-
1.03 52% 35% 29% -6 0 0.89 33% 1.0 .33 17% .34 71% .24 1.10 57% 39% 36% +1 0 1.04 31% 1.2 .35 17% .27 74% .25
Nov
4		 Georgia Southern C- B- D- F D- 45% 22% 33% D+ F+ A- A- A B A+ F A+ D+ C+ A D- D 55% 11% 35% F+ D F F F B- F A+ D+
1.14 64% 33% 22% -4 0 0.95 44% 1.2 .54 16% .61 63% .39 1.11 53% 33% 37% -2 +2 1.04 35% 1.3 .45 17% .45 60% .27
Nov
8		 Richmond D- C+ A- F D+ 28% 32% 40% D D F A D C- A+ C A+ C- F F A+ D+ 37% 18% 45% F D A+ F B+ C F D F
0.97 62% 47% 21% -4 -2 0.89 22% 1.4 .30 18% .51 71% .36 1.18 78% 56% 27% +6 0 1.14 15% 1.3 .19 15% .57 81% .46
Nov
18		 UNC Wilmington F F+ C F D- 15% 43% 43% F F C F+ D+ C- C B C+ F+ F B+ F F 23% 23% 53% B- F B C- C+ B+ F D F
0.90 50% 39% 26% -6 -5 0.81 27% 0.9 .24 15% .25 79% .19 1.27 80% 30% 48% +14 -1 1.28 31% 1.1 .34 18% .51 75% .38
Nov
21		 Charleston Southern F C C- F F+ 47% 33% 20% C- F+ D+ A+ B- D B- F D- D C A+ F F 22% 22% 56% A+ F+ A+ B- A F B+ F C+
0.92 54% 35% 10% -10 -1 0.80 26% 1.3 .34 14% .40 54% .22 1.10 58% 25% 48% +10 -1 1.18 15% 0.8 .12 13% .21 77% .16
Nov
25		 Michigan St. F+ F B A+ C+ 48% 25% 28% B C+ A+ F C F A+ D+ A+ C- D+ C+ F D- 32% 29% 39% B D B+ F C- D A+ A A+
0.78 26% 40% 55% -6 0 0.90 31% 0.5 .14 33% .54 69% .37 1.24 67% 38% 45% +9 -1 1.18 36% 1.3 .47 15% .20 67% .13
Nov
27		 St. Bonaventure F F D C- F 40% 27% 33% D+ F C+ F F+ F A+ A- A+ A C A- A A 23% 38% 40% A+ A+ A+ F B- B B- F C
0.82 22% 33% 33% -16 -1 0.69 30% 0.6 .19 24% .47 84% .39 0.95 58% 35% 29% -4 -3 0.87 25% 1.2 .31 20% .25 86% .21
Dec
2		 Maryland Eastern Shore C C F A+ B 43% 20% 38% C B B- F D+ C- A+ D A C F F A F 22% 42% 36% A+ D- B+ D C+ F+ A A+ A
1.15 59% 25% 47% +5 0 1.13 36% 0.9 .32 17% .47 70% .33 0.95 70% 53% 25% +4 -4 1.02 24% 1.0 .24 19% .15 57% .08
Dec
6		 UNC Greensboro D B F F F 42% 14% 44% B F A+ A+ A+ F B- F C F+ C- F A+ C 35% 31% 35% B C+ F F F C D F F
1.12 67% 29% 23% -5 +1 0.94 53% 1.3 .71 22% .29 63% .18 1.18 59% 47% 24% -2 -2 0.94 38% 1.6 .59 16% .41 88% .36
Dec
11		 Appalachian St. F F A- F F 43% 22% 35% C F C D C- C+ D- F F C F+ C- B+ D 46% 17% 38% D D F D F A+ A- D B
0.83 41% 45% 17% -15 0 0.73 31% 0.8 .26 14% .21 50% .11 1.03 68% 38% 28% +1 +1 1.06 39% 1.1 .42 25% .24 67% .16
Dec
14		 Buffalo D- F D+ F F 42% 21% 37% C- F B- A A- A+ A+ B- A+ B- A+ F C A+ 39% 16% 45% C- A F B- D- B D+ D+ D
1.06 41% 36% 21% -15 0 0.73 37% 1.2 .44 10% .49 77% .37 1.02 35% 50% 35% -7 +1 0.90 36% 1.0 .36 19% .38 76% .29
Dec
17		 Presbyterian D+ C- A+ B- B 56% 17% 27% B B+ F A D+ F A+ A+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 63% 17% 20% F A+ B- F D A+ B+ D B-
1.08 57% 71% 36% +6 +2 1.17 20% 1.3 .25 23% .50 85% .42 0.77 48% 25% 11% -15 +2 0.76 30% 1.2 .36 28% .28 71% .20
Dec
22		 North Carolina F D- F F F 39% 33% 28% C F A+ F D F A D- B+ D+ C F F F 41% 16% 43% C- F F+ B- D+ B+ F A- F+
0.67 45% 16% 13% -21 -2 0.56 38% 0.4 .15 22% .29 65% .19 1.30 62% 50% 50% +14 +1 1.31 41% 1.1 .43 16% .47 63% .30
Dec
31		 Tulane D+ B- F C- D- 43% 24% 33% C D C+ F D A+ C F+ C- F+ A- B- F F 28% 28% 44% A D- F D F B+ F A+ D
1.06 61% 15% 33% -5 0 0.93 35% 0.8 .28 12% .33 63% .21 1.20 50% 33% 47% +5 -2 1.09 38% 1.2 .47 18% .50 67% .33
Jan
7		 Temple D+ D A+ A+ B+ 44% 40% 16% F B- B F C- D- A F C+ C- A+ A+ F+ A 41% 9% 50% F A- D+ F F B- F D F
1.03 53% 53% 43% +6 -2 1.09 34% 0.8 .28 18% .40 57% .23 1.15 32% 25% 39% -8 +2 0.89 31% 1.5 .49 15% .47 81% .38
Jan
11		 UAB D+ C+ F B- C- 33% 32% 35% D- D+ A- D+ B F+ A F B C+ A- D- A+ B 55% 25% 20% D B- A- F C- D B B B
1.02 62% 25% 36% -2 -2 0.95 35% 0.9 .30 20% .35 65% .23 1.04 49% 44% 23% -7 +1 0.89 27% 1.3 .36 10% .28 67% .19
Jan
14		 South Florida D+ C F+ D- D 35% 30% 35% D+ D D- A C- A A- F C+ B A- A+ F C 40% 11% 49% B C A+ A+ A+ F C D C-
0.96 55% 29% 30% -6 -1 0.88 23% 1.2 .28 15% .40 60% .24 1.11 48% 17% 39% -2 +1 1.00 26% 0.5 .14 9% .39 77% .30
Jan
18		 Charlotte D D+ D+ F+ D- 44% 31% 25% D+ D- F+ A D+ A+ D+ D D C B F F F 51% 5% 44% F F B F D+ A+ A- F C+
1.06 54% 35% 29% -5 -1 0.91 23% 1.3 .30 8% .30 67% .20 1.11 55% 100% 47% +10 +3 1.28 30% 1.2 .35 27% .27 85% .23
Jan
21		 Wichita St. D C- F F F 33% 35% 31% D F C- F D A+ B F+ C+ D+ F F A+ A- 26% 20% 54% B+ A- D F F D D+ F+ D
0.92 56% 21% 24% -12 -2 0.74 27% 0.8 .20 9% .32 63% .20 1.18 69% 60% 15% -8 -1 0.84 43% 1.3 .55 12% .33 74% .25
Jan
23		 North Texas C F F A D+ 33% 30% 38% D- D A+ A A+ F A+ B- A+ A- C+ A+ A+ A+ 41% 26% 33% A- A+ B+ F C- F B+ C+ B+
0.98 38% 25% 40% -7 -2 0.85 45% 1.2 .55 28% .50 74% .37 0.92 55% 21% 17% -14 -1 0.72 29% 1.2 .33 11% .28 69% .19
Jan
28		 Rice D+ B- F F F 43% 24% 33% B+ F+ C- A- B- B+ A A+ A+ D- F C- F F 21% 28% 51% C+ F C+ F D- C+ F A F+
1.10 65% 23% 22% -6 0 0.89 31% 1.2 .37 13% .43 88% .38 1.18 70% 38% 42% +9 -2 1.15 34% 1.2 .40 19% .44 60% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Florida Atlantic B F+ C B+ D+ 52% 22% 26% C D+ A- B- A- B- A- C A- C D C F F+ 40% 19% 42% C D- D B C A+ A+ F A-
1.13 46% 36% 38% -5 +1 0.94 35% 1.1 .38 15% .39 73% .28 1.12 63% 44% 40% +7 0 1.17 38% 1.0 .38 24% .20 80% .16
Feb
7		 Temple C+ C D+ F D+ 55% 22% 22% B- C- D+ A C+ A+ A+ B- A+ F B- D- D D+ 29% 35% 37% A+ C F A D+ F B D B-
1.15 59% 36% 27% -2 +1 1.00 26% 1.3 .32 9% .47 74% .35 1.27 53% 44% 37% +3 -2 1.02 43% 0.8 .33 6% .34 80% .27
Feb
11		 Texas San Antonio B- D A+ F F 31% 19% 50% D F C A+ A+ A B A+ A+ D+ B- A+ C- C 39% 18% 43% D+ C F B- D+ D- C A+ B+
1.24 53% 60% 22% -6 0 0.89 37% 1.6 .58 11% .32 90% .29 1.01 50% 20% 33% -7 0 0.89 38% 0.8 .30 14% .26 50% .13



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 1.3 1.1 0.0 2.4 9th
10th 0.1 2.0 4.0 0.5 6.6 10th
11th 0.1 4.4 10.4 2.8 0.1 17.8 11th
12th 8.3 27.1 27.9 8.6 0.4 72.2 12th
13th 0.1 0.1 13th
Total 8.4 27.2 32.4 21.1 8.5 2.2 0.3 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9 0.3% 3.4% 3.4% 15.0 0.0 0.3
8-10 2.2% 2.2
7-11 8.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.5
6-12 21.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 21.0
5-13 32.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 32.4
4-14 27.2% 27.2
3-15 8.4% 8.4
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.8 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.4%