East Carolina
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.2#163
Expected Predictive Rating+0.5#156
Pace66.1#229
Improvement-0.2#202

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#154
First Shot-0.8#200
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#91
Layup/Dunks+1.5#127
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#163
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.2#330
Freethrows+2.7#42
Improvement+1.2#127

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#196
First Shot-0.6#199
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#216
Layups/Dunks-0.4#182
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#18
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#319
Freethrows+1.3#90
Improvement-1.4#262
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 2.5% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.6 n/a
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.4% 2.5% 0.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 36 - 87 - 12
Quad 410 - 217 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 317   Coastal Carolina W 63-59 87%     1 - 0 -8.1 -4.7 -2.6
  Nov 16, 2024 90   George Mason W 78-77 2OT 38%     2 - 0 +4.0 +3.2 +0.7
  Nov 21, 2024 124   Jacksonville St. L 78-86 41%     2 - 1 -5.7 +7.7 -13.6
  Nov 22, 2024 350   Stetson W 71-64 88%     3 - 1 -6.1 -7.8 +2.0
  Nov 23, 2024 173   Illinois-Chicago W 72-55 52%     4 - 1 +16.3 +5.2 +12.7
  Nov 29, 2024 328   N.C. A&T W 93-69 89%     5 - 1 +10.7 +16.4 -5.2
  Dec 03, 2024 111   UNC Wilmington L 53-67 46%     5 - 2 -13.1 -19.5 +5.9
  Dec 07, 2024 68   @ South Carolina L 68-75 15%     5 - 3 +3.7 +14.1 -11.6
  Dec 11, 2024 121   North Alabama L 67-74 51%     5 - 4 -7.4 -7.6 +0.1
  Dec 17, 2024 257   Florida International W 75-64 77%     6 - 4 +3.1 +1.6 +1.5
  Dec 21, 2024 272   Gardner-Webb L 79-84 80%     6 - 5 -13.9 -0.3 -13.5
  Dec 31, 2024 189   @ South Florida L 69-75 45%     6 - 6 0 - 1 -4.8 -3.9 -0.7
  Jan 05, 2025 107   Florida Atlantic L 76-78 45%     6 - 7 0 - 2 -0.9 -2.1 +1.3
  Jan 08, 2025 155   Temple W 80-79 59%     7 - 7 1 - 2 -1.5 +1.7 -3.2
  Jan 11, 2025 50   @ Memphis L 70-74 10%     7 - 8 1 - 3 +9.8 +0.2 +9.9
  Jan 14, 2025 79   North Texas L 60-69 32%     7 - 9 1 - 4 -4.5 +0.9 -6.8
  Jan 18, 2025 126   @ Wichita St. W 75-72 32%     8 - 9 2 - 4 +7.8 +10.0 -2.0
  Jan 21, 2025 250   @ Tulsa W 85-76 OT 57%     9 - 9 3 - 4 +6.9 +11.2 -4.3
  Jan 25, 2025 189   South Florida W 64-55 66%     10 - 9 4 - 4 +4.7 -1.8 +7.6
  Feb 01, 2025 155   @ Temple L 94-98 OT 38%     10 - 10 4 - 5 -1.0 +9.8 -10.4
  Feb 05, 2025 191   Rice L 60-73 66%     10 - 11 4 - 6 -17.4 -15.7 -1.7
  Feb 08, 2025 184   @ Texas San Antonio W 80-79 44%     11 - 11 5 - 6 +2.4 +10.5 -8.0
  Feb 11, 2025 108   UAB W 82-75 45%     12 - 11 6 - 6 +8.0 +12.4 -3.7
  Feb 15, 2025 243   @ Charlotte W 75-59 56%     13 - 11 7 - 6 +14.2 +14.4 +3.0
  Feb 19, 2025 141   @ Tulane L 81-86 35%     13 - 12 7 - 7 -1.2 +8.6 -9.8
  Feb 23, 2025 184   Texas San Antonio W 96-89 OT 65%     14 - 12 8 - 7 +2.9 +11.2 -8.9
  Mar 02, 2025 243   Charlotte W 78-76 75%     15 - 12 9 - 7 -5.3 +0.1 -5.3
  Mar 06, 2025 141   Tulane W 73-64 56%     16 - 12 10 - 7 +7.3 +3.3 +4.5
  Mar 09, 2025 107   @ Florida Atlantic L 53-81 26%     16 - 13 10 - 8 -21.4 -15.9 -7.0
  Mar 13, 2025 184   Texas San Antonio W 77-76 55%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 100.0 100.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 100.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 100.0% 1.4% 1.4% 13.6 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.0 98.6
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 13.6 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.0 98.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.4% 100.0% 13.6 3.6 32.9 60.7 2.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 13.2%
Lose Out 44.9%