East Carolina
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.8#150
Expected Predictive Rating-0.4#172
Pace65.5#257
Improvement+0.8#154

Offense
Total Offense+0.4#172
First Shot-1.0#211
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#102
Layup/Dunks+1.4#128
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#164
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.2#327
Freethrows+2.6#43
Improvement+1.4#111

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#157
First Shot+0.5#164
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#200
Layups/Dunks+0.0#166
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#18
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#309
Freethrows+1.5#83
Improvement-0.6#216
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 2.0% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.5 14.2
.500 or above 61.8% 70.9% 41.2%
.500 or above in Conference 59.7% 69.1% 38.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.1% 1.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.7% 2.0% 1.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rice (Home) - 69.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 35 - 87 - 13
Quad 49 - 216 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 309   Coastal Carolina W 63-59 86%     1 - 0 -7.0 -4.0 -2.2
  Nov 16, 2024 81   George Mason W 78-77 2OT 35%     2 - 0 +5.8 +3.8 +2.0
  Nov 21, 2024 130   Jacksonville St. L 78-86 46%     2 - 1 -6.2 +6.5 -12.8
  Nov 22, 2024 334   Stetson W 71-64 87%     3 - 1 -4.2 -7.2 +3.2
  Nov 23, 2024 123   Illinois-Chicago W 72-55 45%     4 - 1 +19.1 +5.0 +15.6
  Nov 29, 2024 333   N.C. A&T W 93-69 90%     5 - 1 +10.6 +14.5 -3.4
  Dec 03, 2024 117   UNC Wilmington L 53-67 52%     5 - 2 -13.7 -19.5 +5.2
  Dec 07, 2024 79   @ South Carolina L 68-75 20%     5 - 3 +2.8 +14.0 -12.5
  Dec 11, 2024 155   North Alabama L 67-74 61%     5 - 4 -8.9 -8.2 -0.7
  Dec 17, 2024 243   Florida International W 75-64 78%     6 - 4 +3.6 +1.1 +2.4
  Dec 21, 2024 236   Gardner-Webb L 79-84 77%     6 - 5 -11.9 +0.5 -12.3
  Dec 31, 2024 177   @ South Florida L 69-75 47%     6 - 6 0 - 1 -4.3 -4.9 +0.8
  Jan 05, 2025 106   Florida Atlantic L 76-78 47%     6 - 7 0 - 2 -0.3 -2.4 +2.2
  Jan 08, 2025 125   Temple W 80-79 55%     7 - 7 1 - 2 +0.6 +3.8 -3.3
  Jan 11, 2025 41   @ Memphis L 70-74 11%     7 - 8 1 - 3 +10.1 +0.0 +10.5
  Jan 14, 2025 70   North Texas L 60-69 33%     7 - 9 1 - 4 -3.7 +2.3 -7.4
  Jan 18, 2025 134   @ Wichita St. W 75-72 38%     8 - 9 2 - 4 +7.0 +8.4 -1.2
  Jan 21, 2025 238   @ Tulsa W 85-76 OT 61%     9 - 9 3 - 4 +7.0 +11.2 -4.4
  Jan 25, 2025 177   South Florida W 64-55 66%     10 - 9 4 - 4 +5.7 -2.5 +9.2
  Feb 01, 2025 125   @ Temple L 94-98 OT 36%     10 - 10 4 - 5 +0.6 +11.8 -10.7
  Feb 05, 2025 192   Rice W 72-67 69%    
  Feb 08, 2025 202   @ Texas San Antonio W 77-76 50%    
  Feb 11, 2025 96   UAB L 76-78 47%    
  Feb 15, 2025 221   @ Charlotte W 69-67 54%    
  Feb 19, 2025 141   @ Tulane L 68-71 38%    
  Feb 23, 2025 202   Texas San Antonio W 79-74 70%    
  Mar 02, 2025 221   Charlotte W 72-65 74%    
  Mar 06, 2025 141   Tulane W 71-69 59%    
  Mar 09, 2025 106   @ Florida Atlantic L 73-79 27%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 0.4 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 1.8 0.2 3.6 3rd
4th 0.3 3.4 5.9 1.3 0.0 10.9 4th
5th 0.1 3.1 8.4 3.4 0.2 15.1 5th
6th 0.0 2.1 9.8 6.9 0.5 19.3 6th
7th 1.6 10.2 9.4 1.4 22.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 6.0 7.2 1.2 0.0 15.0 8th
9th 0.1 2.0 4.4 1.1 0.0 7.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.9 0.7 0.0 3.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.0 1.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 13th
Total 0.2 1.5 5.3 12.7 20.7 23.8 20.2 11.4 3.7 0.6 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.6% 6.3% 6.3% 12.0 0.0 0.6
12-6 3.7% 5.4% 5.4% 12.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.5
11-7 11.4% 3.3% 3.3% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 11.0
10-8 20.2% 2.2% 2.2% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 19.8
9-9 23.8% 1.9% 1.9% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 23.3
8-10 20.7% 0.8% 0.8% 14.9 0.0 0.2 20.5
7-11 12.7% 0.3% 0.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 12.7
6-12 5.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 5.3
5-13 1.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.5
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 13.7 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 98.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%