East Carolina
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.9 #267
Expected Predictive Rating -9.8 #324
Pace 70.9 #127
Improvement +2.2 #86

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #317 F C D+ C+ D+
Defense #176 C- D+ C+ B- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #114 1.06 #295 -0.6 #200
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #55 0.69 #279 +1.7 #93
Three Pointers 32% #343 0.84 #351 -7.6 #353
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #347 -6.6 #347
Freethrows 19.8 #64 68% #325 13.4 #137
Second Chance 32.7% #120 0.93 #319 0.31 #202
Turnovers 17.6% #256
Total Offense -5.7 #317

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #229 1.13 #142 +1.3 #132
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #144 0.82 #286 -1.0 #266
Three Pointers 41% #164 1.09 #281 -1.8 #267
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #228 -1.5 #229
Freethrows 15.1 #75 76% #311 11.5 #110
Second Chance 29.1% #116 1.23 #353 0.36 #269
Turnovers 17.1% #138
Total Defense -0.2 #176

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.4% #278 -0.4% #124
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -11.6% #342 3.4% #246
Possession Length 17.3 #173 16.6 #65
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #232 0.22 #316
Improvement +0.6 #151 +1.6 #87

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.5% 1.7% 0.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 21.5% 9.4% 23.6%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Texas (Away) - 15.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 60 - 9
Quad 32 - 82 - 17
Quad 47 - 68 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 251 Georgia Southern W 92 - 89 58% +2  1 - 0 -5 +2 F A+ A- -7 D F B
 Sat, Nov 8 120 @Richmond L 72 - 87 14% -10  1 - 1 -9 -2 D- D+ C -6 D B+ C
 Tue, Nov 18 125 @UNC Wilmington L 60 - 85 15% -12  1 - 2 -20 -7 F D+ C- -14 F C+ B
 Fri, Nov 21 234 Charleston Southern L 65 - 77 54% -7  1 - 3 -19 -11 F B- F -8 F B+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 11 Michigan St. L 56 - 89 2% -22  1 - 4 -13 -5 B- C F -7 F C- D
 Thu, Nov 27 136 St. Bonaventure L 58 - 67 24% -2  1 - 5 -7 -17 F F F +9 A- B+ A
 Tue, Dec 2 330 Maryland Eastern Shore W 68 - 56 77% +5  2 - 5 -2 +3 A D C- -3 D- B- F
 Sat, Dec 6 294 UNC Greensboro L 78 - 82 68% -2  2 - 6 -15 -2 F A+ F -13 C F C
 Thu, Dec 11 206 Appalachian St. L 54 - 67 50% -9  2 - 7 -19 -17 F D C -3 D F A+
 Sun, Dec 14 201 Buffalo W 73 - 70 49% -8  3 - 7 -3 -4 F A- A+ +2 A- D A
 Wed, Dec 17 266 Presbyterian W 74 - 53 61% +10  4 - 7 +12 -1 B D F +14 A+ C- A+
 Mon, Dec 22 31 @North Carolina L 51 - 99 3% -24  4 - 8 -31 -19 F D F -8 F C- B
 Wed, Dec 31 172 Tulane L 70 - 79 43% -1  4 - 9 0 - 1 -13 -1 D- F A+ -13 F F A+
 Wed, Jan 7 140 @Temple L 67 - 75 17% -9  4 - 10 0 - 2 -4 +0 B C- F -5 A+ F C+
 Sun, Jan 11 117 UAB L 85 - 87 OT 29% -2  4 - 11 0 - 3 -2 -2 D+ B F -0 C+ C D
 Wed, Jan 14 74 @South Florida L 71 - 82 7% -11  4 - 12 0 - 4 -0 -1 D- C A+ +1 C A+ F
 Sun, Jan 18 173 Charlotte L 70 - 73 43% -7  4 - 13 0 - 5 -7 -3 F C- A+ -5 F D+ A+
 Wed, Jan 21 103 @Wichita St. L 60 - 77 11% -14  4 - 14 0 - 6 -9 -5 F D- A+ -6 A F D
 Fri, Jan 23 127 @North Texas L 59 - 70 15%
 Wed, Jan 28 239 Rice W 71 - 70 55%
 Sun, Feb 1 95 @Florida Atlantic L 68 - 82 9%
 Sat, Feb 7 140 Temple L 70 - 74 34%
 Wed, Feb 11 345 Texas San Antonio W 78 - 69 80%
 Sat, Feb 14 239 @Rice L 68 - 73 34%
 Wed, Feb 18 103 Wichita St. L 67 - 75 23%
 Sat, Feb 21 173 @Charlotte L 67 - 75 23%
 Wed, Feb 25 345 @Texas San Antonio W 75 - 72 61%
 Sun, Mar 1 92 Memphis L 66 - 75 21%
 Thu, Mar 5 70 Tulsa L 71 - 82 15%
 Sun, Mar 8 117 @UAB L 69 - 81 14%
Totals 8 - 22 4 - 14 -6 -6 F C D+ +0 C- D+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.1 9th
10th 0.2 1.5 3.6 1.8 0.1 7.3 10th
11th 0.7 5.3 9.1 4.9 0.8 20.9 11th
12th 1.2 10.8 20.4 17.1 6.9 1.0 0.0 57.4 12th
13th 1.0 4.3 4.1 1.5 0.2 11.0 13th
Total 1.0 5.6 15.0 22.6 22.8 17.5 9.7 4.1 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9 0.4% 1.3% 1.3% 15.0 0.0 0.4
8-10 1.4% 1.4
7-11 4.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.0
6-12 9.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.7
5-13 17.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.5
4-14 22.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 22.8
3-15 22.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 22.6
2-16 15.0% 15.0
1-17 5.6% 5.6
0-18 1.0% 1.0
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.9 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%