UNC Greensboro
Southern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.1#157
Expected Predictive Rating-1.1#185
Pace63.1#324
Improvement-3.0#331

Offense
Total Offense-1.3#205
First Shot-2.8#257
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#106
Layup/Dunks-4.9#332
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#195
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#71
Freethrows-0.9#241
Improvement-1.6#306

Defense
Total Defense+1.2#134
First Shot+1.1#134
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#171
Layups/Dunks+4.0#54
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#346
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#221
Freethrows+1.1#108
Improvement-1.5#294
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.7% 14.1% 9.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.8 14.3
.500 or above 68.5% 82.1% 58.7%
.500 or above in Conference 81.3% 85.8% 78.1%
Conference Champion 13.3% 16.6% 10.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.2% 0.6%
First Four0.5% 0.2% 0.6%
First Round11.5% 14.0% 9.7%
Second Round0.8% 1.0% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Elon (Away) - 41.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 35 - 75 - 11
Quad 411 - 316 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 192   Florida Gulf Coast W 73-64 66%     1 - 0 +4.7 +3.5 +1.9
  Nov 11, 2024 49   @ SMU L 68-81 11%     1 - 1 +0.3 -2.5 +3.4
  Nov 21, 2024 45   @ Indiana L 58-69 11%     1 - 2 +2.6 -7.1 +9.4
  Nov 25, 2024 261   Long Beach St. W 71-48 70%     2 - 2 +17.5 +1.9 +18.0
  Nov 26, 2024 189   San Jose St. L 64-69 55%     2 - 3 -6.3 -6.8 +0.1
  Nov 27, 2024 140   UTEP L 58-64 46%     2 - 4 -5.0 -3.5 -2.4
  Dec 03, 2024 135   High Point W 72-68 56%     3 - 4 +2.4 +8.0 -4.9
  Dec 07, 2024 321   @ N.C. A&T W 67-55 72%     4 - 4 +6.0 -2.8 +9.9
  Dec 14, 2024 188   @ North Florida L 77-89 43%     4 - 5 -10.3 -0.9 -9.1
  Dec 21, 2024 179   @ Elon L 66-68 42%    
  Jan 01, 2025 155   @ Wofford L 65-68 39%    
  Jan 04, 2025 128   Furman W 66-65 53%    
  Jan 09, 2025 183   @ Chattanooga L 68-70 42%    
  Jan 11, 2025 112   @ Samford L 72-78 27%    
  Jan 15, 2025 355   The Citadel W 73-57 93%    
  Jan 18, 2025 311   @ Western Carolina W 71-66 69%    
  Jan 22, 2025 239   Mercer W 73-66 74%    
  Jan 25, 2025 347   @ VMI W 73-64 80%    
  Jan 29, 2025 132   East Tennessee St. W 68-67 54%    
  Feb 01, 2025 155   Wofford W 68-65 60%    
  Feb 05, 2025 355   @ The Citadel W 70-60 81%    
  Feb 08, 2025 311   Western Carolina W 74-63 85%    
  Feb 12, 2025 347   VMI W 76-61 91%    
  Feb 15, 2025 128   @ Furman L 63-68 32%    
  Feb 19, 2025 132   @ East Tennessee St. L 65-70 34%    
  Feb 22, 2025 239   @ Mercer W 70-69 55%    
  Feb 27, 2025 183   Chattanooga W 71-67 64%    
  Mar 01, 2025 112   Samford L 75-76 48%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.4 3.6 1.9 0.7 0.1 13.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.0 6.1 3.2 0.7 0.0 14.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.6 7.0 2.8 0.3 15.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 4.9 7.0 2.7 0.2 15.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 4.7 6.7 2.3 0.1 15.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.3 5.0 1.9 0.1 13.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.8 2.9 1.0 0.1 8.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.7 5.3 8.7 11.7 14.4 14.8 14.2 11.4 7.8 4.3 1.9 0.7 0.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
16-2 97.6% 1.9    1.7 0.2
15-3 83.9% 3.6    2.7 0.9 0.1
14-4 55.9% 4.4    2.0 1.9 0.5 0.0
13-5 19.9% 2.3    0.5 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.7% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.3% 13.3 7.6 4.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 45.1% 45.1% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.7% 32.6% 32.6% 12.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5
16-2 1.9% 35.5% 35.5% 12.7 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2
15-3 4.3% 29.0% 29.0% 13.2 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 3.1
14-4 7.8% 24.0% 24.0% 13.5 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.1 5.9
13-5 11.4% 17.9% 17.9% 13.8 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 9.4
12-6 14.2% 13.3% 13.3% 14.2 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.0 12.3
11-7 14.8% 10.5% 10.5% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.1 13.3
10-8 14.4% 7.0% 7.0% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 13.4
9-9 11.7% 5.0% 5.0% 15.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 11.1
8-10 8.7% 3.7% 3.7% 15.8 0.1 0.3 8.3
7-11 5.3% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.1 5.1
6-12 2.7% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 2.6
5-13 1.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.4
4-14 0.5% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-15 0.2% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 11.7% 11.7% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 2.9 4.0 2.9 1.0 88.3 0.0%