Youngstown St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.0#200
Expected Predictive Rating-0.8#172
Pace71.9#72
Improvement+3.8#38

Offense
Total Offense-3.0#250
First Shot-3.4#276
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#165
Layup/Dunks-4.4#328
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#293
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#178
Freethrows+2.8#37
Improvement+5.9#7

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#139
First Shot+1.8#114
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#248
Layups/Dunks-1.9#261
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#80
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#29
Freethrows-1.8#304
Improvement-2.1#285
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 39.1% 100.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% n/a 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.2 n/a
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.1% 2.8% 0.0%
First Round38.6% 98.8% 0.0%
Second Round0.4% 1.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 37 - 67 - 8
Quad 412 - 519 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 361   @ Chicago St. W 80-60 87%     1 - 0 +5.8 -1.3 +6.3
  Nov 11, 2024 37   @ Ohio St. L 47-81 6%     1 - 1 -17.9 -18.8 +0.7
  Nov 16, 2024 102   @ Syracuse L 95-104 2OT 20%     1 - 2 -1.9 +3.3 -3.3
  Nov 21, 2024 247   Monmouth W 72-62 61%     2 - 2 +5.3 -7.7 +12.5
  Nov 22, 2024 240   Presbyterian L 42-67 59%     2 - 3 -29.3 -31.7 +1.5
  Nov 23, 2024 282   @ Stephen F. Austin L 57-64 58%     2 - 4 -11.2 -10.2 -1.3
  Nov 27, 2024 296   Western Michigan L 62-73 79%     2 - 5 -21.5 -13.6 -8.3
  Dec 04, 2024 146   @ Robert Morris W 72-58 29%     3 - 5 1 - 0 +17.7 -1.9 +18.8
  Dec 07, 2024 185   Oakland W 66-50 58%     4 - 5 2 - 0 +11.9 -0.1 +14.4
  Dec 14, 2024 248   Toledo W 93-87 70%     5 - 5 -1.5 +8.5 -10.2
  Dec 18, 2024 229   @ Wright St. W 80-70 46%     6 - 5 3 - 0 +9.1 +3.6 +5.5
  Dec 21, 2024 349   @ South Carolina Upstate W 72-64 78%     7 - 5 -2.0 -15.9 +12.8
  Dec 29, 2024 337   Detroit Mercy W 73-64 87%     8 - 5 4 - 0 -5.3 -11.2 +5.2
  Jan 01, 2025 318   @ IU Indianapolis W 77-61 68%     9 - 5 5 - 0 +9.3 -0.1 +10.4
  Jan 04, 2025 164   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 81-90 33%     9 - 6 5 - 1 -6.5 -1.7 -3.7
  Jan 08, 2025 222   Northern Kentucky W 72-61 66%     10 - 6 6 - 1 +4.9 +0.4 +5.0
  Jan 11, 2025 171   Cleveland St. L 72-80 55%     10 - 7 6 - 2 -11.4 +0.3 -11.8
  Jan 17, 2025 144   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 64-79 29%     10 - 8 6 - 3 -11.3 -6.8 -4.4
  Jan 19, 2025 334   @ Green Bay W 73-69 73%     11 - 8 7 - 3 -4.5 -0.7 -3.6
  Jan 22, 2025 146   Robert Morris L 70-72 49%     11 - 9 7 - 4 -3.8 +1.7 -5.7
  Jan 30, 2025 229   Wright St. W 88-86 67%     12 - 9 8 - 4 -4.4 +0.6 -5.2
  Feb 01, 2025 318   IU Indianapolis L 79-84 83%     12 - 10 8 - 5 -17.2 -2.3 -15.2
  Feb 06, 2025 185   @ Oakland W 84-75 37%     13 - 10 9 - 5 +10.4 +5.4 +4.5
  Feb 08, 2025 337   @ Detroit Mercy W 87-72 74%     14 - 10 10 - 5 +6.2 +17.5 -10.3
  Feb 12, 2025 164   Purdue Fort Wayne W 93-71 54%     15 - 10 11 - 5 +19.0 +18.7 +0.5
  Feb 16, 2025 171   @ Cleveland St. W 68-60 35%     16 - 10 12 - 5 +10.1 +4.3 +6.6
  Feb 21, 2025 144   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 74-84 49%     16 - 11 12 - 6 -11.8 +0.8 -12.6
  Feb 23, 2025 334   Green Bay W 81-77 87%     17 - 11 13 - 6 -10.0 -3.7 -6.5
  Mar 01, 2025 222   @ Northern Kentucky L 79-88 45%     17 - 12 13 - 7 -9.6 +6.6 -16.3
  Mar 06, 2025 164   Purdue Fort Wayne W 72-67 54%     18 - 12 +2.0 -9.4 +11.0
  Mar 10, 2025 171   Cleveland St. W 56-54 45%     19 - 12 +1.4 -5.2 +6.9
  Mar 11, 2025 146   Robert Morris L 71-74 39%    
Projected Record 19 - 13 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 100.0 100.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 100.0% 39.1% 39.1% 15.2 0.0 3.5 23.6 12.0 60.9
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 39.1% 39.1% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 3.5 23.6 12.0 60.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 39.1% 100.0% 15.2 0.0 9.1 60.4 30.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 60.9%