Youngstown St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.2 #213
Expected Predictive Rating -6.2 #266
Pace 68.9 #180
Improvement -3.0 #310

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #207 C C+ D- D B-
Defense #234 C- C+ B F C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #316 1.17 #162 -2.9 #281
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #321 0.68 #287 -3.1 #326
Three Pointers 53% #11 1.00 #206 +5.8 #26
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #179 -0.2 #178
Freethrows 15.8 #262 69% #288 10.9 #283
Second Chance 32.5% #133 1.08 #134 0.35 #111
Turnovers 18.7% #315
Total Offense -1.4 #207

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #98 1.29 #327 -4.5 #325
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #60 0.65 #40 -0.3 #205
Three Pointers 34% #349 1.06 #238 +3.0 #69
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #239 -1.9 #241
Freethrows 22.1 #350 76% #327 16.9 #359
Second Chance 31.9% #246 0.96 #65 0.31 #142
Turnovers 18.4% #75
Total Defense -1.8 #234

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.1% #117 -0.6% #112
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.5% #204 4.3% #259
Possession Length 18.3 #277 16.7 #79
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #167 0.24 #347
Improvement +1.3 #112 -4.3 #351

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.9% 6.6% 4.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.2 15.7
.500 or above 27.9% 35.5% 12.7%
.500 or above in Conference 28.8% 37.2% 11.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.8% 1.4% 5.8%
First Four1.5% 1.2% 2.0%
First Round5.3% 6.1% 3.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Home) - 66.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 32 - 83 - 10
Quad 411 - 714 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 91 @Pittsburgh L 59 - 74 13% -3  0 - 1 -6 -7 C F D -1 A- F A+
 Fri, Nov 7 79 @Grand Canyon W 90 - 81 11% +3  1 - 1 +19 +22 A+ A+ A+ -3 B F B-
 Sat, Nov 15 136 @St. Bonaventure L 80 - 84 23% +5  1 - 2 +1 +8 C A+ D- -7 F B+ A+
 Wed, Nov 19 166 @Toledo L 75 - 92 29% -8  1 - 3 -15 -4 D A F -9 F D B
 Sun, Nov 23 294 UNC Greensboro L 62 - 68 66% +9  1 - 4 -14 -19 F F F +6 C- A A+
 Mon, Nov 24 251 Georgia Southern W 67 - 61 57% +4  2 - 4 +1 -8 D+ B F +9 B A+ A
 Fri, Nov 28 357 Chicago St. W 87 - 64 90% +21  3 - 4 +6 +6 A+ F C -0 B+ C+ C
 Wed, Dec 3 154 Wright St. W 69 - 68 48% +0  4 - 4 1 - 0 -2 -5 D+ A+ F +4 C- A B
 Sat, Dec 6 337 @IU Indianapolis W 78 - 55 69% +13  5 - 4 2 - 0 +15 +3 B D F +13 A+ A+ B-
 Wed, Dec 17 200 @Robert Morris L 77 - 80 OT 36% +3  5 - 5 2 - 1 -3 +6 A+ A+ F -9 D+ C+ D-
 Sat, Dec 20 303 South Carolina Upstate W 74 - 65 77% +8  6 - 5 -2 -3 C+ F F +1 A+ C B+
 Mon, Dec 29 286 Detroit Mercy L 68 - 73 75% -7  6 - 6 2 - 2 -15 -10 F F B+ -5 F A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 1 139 Oakland L 83 - 85 44% +4  6 - 7 2 - 3 -4 +10 D- A+ A+ -14 F C C
 Sun, Jan 4 178 @Northern Kentucky L 79 - 94 32% -15  6 - 8 2 - 4 -13 -2 F D- A+ -10 F D- C+
 Wed, Jan 7 212 Purdue Fort Wayne L 69 - 71 61% -0  6 - 9 2 - 5 -8 -4 F A+ F -5 C- B- B-
 Thu, Jan 15 154 @Wright St. L 83 - 93 26% -5  6 - 10 2 - 6 -7 +16 C+ A+ B -24 C- F F
 Sat, Jan 17 316 @Cleveland St. L 78 - 80 62% -1  6 - 11 2 - 7 -8 -0 D+ F B- -8 F C B+
 Thu, Jan 22 255 Green Bay W 88 - 81 68% +8  7 - 11 3 - 7 -1 +13 A+ A- D- -14 F B- B+
 Sat, Jan 24 248 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 79 - 74 67%
 Fri, Jan 30 337 IU Indianapolis W 89 - 78 85%
 Wed, Feb 4 212 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 74 - 77 39%
 Sat, Feb 7 200 Robert Morris W 75 - 73 60%
 Thu, Feb 12 139 @Oakland L 77 - 85 24%
 Sun, Feb 15 286 @Detroit Mercy W 77 - 76 54%
 Wed, Feb 18 316 Cleveland St. W 84 - 75 80%
 Sat, Feb 21 178 Northern Kentucky W 77 - 76 54%
 Wed, Feb 25 248 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 76 - 77 45%
 Sat, Feb 28 255 @Green Bay L 72 - 73 45%
Totals 13 - 15 9 - 11 -3 -1 C C+ D- -2 C- C+ B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 1.4 0.3 2.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 3.5 1.0 0.0 5.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 5.1 3.5 0.2 9.3 5th
6th 0.3 5.5 7.2 0.9 14.0 6th
7th 0.3 4.8 10.7 3.2 0.1 19.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 5.1 12.5 5.0 0.2 23.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 4.4 8.5 4.5 0.3 18.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.1 1.3 0.1 6.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 11th
Total 0.0 0.7 2.9 8.1 15.3 22.2 22.1 16.8 8.7 2.8 0.5 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 4.0% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.5% 16.2% 16.2% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
12-8 2.8% 19.9% 19.9% 14.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.2
11-9 8.7% 14.0% 14.0% 14.8 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.1 7.5
10-10 16.8% 8.2% 8.2% 15.2 0.1 0.9 0.4 15.4
9-11 22.1% 5.2% 5.2% 15.6 0.4 0.7 20.9
8-12 22.2% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.0 0.9 21.3
7-13 15.3% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.4 14.9
6-14 8.1% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.2 7.9
5-15 2.9% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 2.8
4-16 0.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.7
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 15.3 94.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%