Youngstown St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -2.7 205
Expected Predictive Rating -6.5 268
Pace 68.0 203
Improvement -0.3 199

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- #209 C+ C D D B-
Defense C- #212 C- C B- D- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 303 60% 123 -1.8 250
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% 330 37% 199 -3.2 328
Three Pointers 53% 7 34% 191 +6.1 23
1st FG Attempt 1.04 137 +1.1 137
Second Chance 30.2% 192 1.02 176 0.31 186
Turnovers 19.3% 315
Freethrows 0.26 318 70% 245 0.18 324
Total Offense -1.6 209

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 66 64% 319 -5.1 335
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 78 33% 24 +0.0 190
Three Pointers 33% 353 36% 263 +3.0 60
1st FG Attempt 1.06 243 -2.0 244
Second Chance 32.2% 254 0.98 115 0.32 203
Turnovers 18.9% 70
Freethrows 0.36 323 75% 330 0.27 337
Total Defense -1.2 212

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.7 94 -0.1 153
Shot Type Accuracy +0.4 159 +2.1 262
Possession Length 18.3 285 16.7 74
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 181 0.23 340
Improvement +1.7 #99 -2.0 #292

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6% 8% 6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.1 15.7
.500 or above 15% 33% 9%
.500 or above in Conference 13% 33% 6%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 1% 0% 2%
First Four3% 1% 3%
First Round5% 8% 4%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Oakland (Away) - 24.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 32 - 73 - 9
Quad 410 - 813 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 99 @Pittsburgh L 59 - 74 15% -3  35% 0 - 1 D+ -7 F+ -9 C F C- C+ +1 B F A+
 Fri, Nov 7 68 @Grand Canyon W 90 - 81 10% +3  65% 1 - 1 A +20 A+ +21 A+ A A+ C -1 B- F B-
 Sat, Nov 15 134 @St. Bonaventure L 80 - 84 24% -1  26% 1 - 2 C +1 B- +5 C- A+ C- D+ -4 F C A-
 Wed, Nov 19 165 @Toledo L 75 - 92 30% -8  6% 1 - 3 F+ -14 D- -6 C+ B F D -7 F+ C B-
 Sun, Nov 23 302 UNC Greensboro L 62 - 68 70% +9  93% 1 - 4 D- -14 F -22 F F F A- +8 C- A- A+
 Mon, Nov 24 274 Georgia Southern W 67 - 61 64% +4  83% 2 - 4 C -0 F -11 C- B- F A +11 B A+ B+
 Fri, Nov 28 353 Chicago St. W 87 - 64 90% +21  97% 3 - 4 B- +6 C+ +3 A F+ C+ B- +3 B C C+
 Wed, Dec 3 150 Wright St. W 69 - 68 49% +0  46% 4 - 4 1 - 0 C -1 D- -8 D A+ F B+ +6 D+ A- B
 Sat, Dec 6 332 @IU Indianapolis W 78 - 55 69% +13  96% 5 - 4 2 - 0 A- +15 C +1 B D+ F A+ +15 A+ A+ B-
 Wed, Dec 17 204 @Robert Morris L 77 - 80 OT 38% +3  76% 5 - 5 2 - 1 C- -3 B- +4 A+ A F D -7 C- C D-
 Sat, Dec 20 297 South Carolina Upstate W 74 - 65 78% +8  97% 6 - 5 C- -2 D -6 B- F D- B- +4 A- D+ B
 Mon, Dec 29 271 Detroit Mercy L 68 - 73 73% -7  20% 6 - 6 2 - 2 D- -14 F -13 F F+ B C -1 F+ A A-
 Thu, Jan 1 143 Oakland L 83 - 85 47% +4  70% 6 - 7 2 - 3 C- -4 B+ +8 D A+ A F -12 F C- C
 Sun, Jan 4 201 @Northern Kentucky L 79 - 94 38% -15  1% 6 - 8 2 - 4 F+ -15 D -5 F D- A+ D- -8 F F+ C+
 Wed, Jan 7 242 Purdue Fort Wayne L 69 - 71 68% -0  36% 6 - 9 2 - 5 D -10 D- -7 F A+ F+ C- -3 C- C+ B-
 Thu, Jan 15 150 @Wright St. L 83 - 93 27% -5  6% 6 - 10 2 - 6 D+ -6 A +14 C A+ B F -21 C- F F
 Sat, Jan 17 299 @Cleveland St. L 78 - 80 58% -1  33% 6 - 11 2 - 7 D+ -7 D+ -3 D F B D+ -4 F C B
 Thu, Jan 22 244 Green Bay W 88 - 81 68% +8  93% 7 - 11 3 - 7 C -1 A- +10 A B+ D+ F+ -10 F B B-
 Sat, Jan 24 268 Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 64 - 65 73% +1  47% 7 - 12 3 - 8 D -10 F -15 F+ F F B +4 C C+ C+
 Fri, Jan 30 332 IU Indianapolis W 85 - 76 85% -1  28% 8 - 12 4 - 8 D+ -5 D+ -3 A- F F+ C- -3 C F B
 Wed, Feb 4 242 @Purdue Fort Wayne W 90 - 61 45% +15  95% 9 - 12 5 - 8 A+ +27 A+ +23 A+ C B- B+ +8 D+ A+ C-
 Sat, Feb 7 204 Robert Morris L 66 - 72 61% -2  30% 9 - 13 5 - 9 D- -12 D- -7 C+ D- D D+ -5 B- F B-
 Thu, Feb 12 143 @Oakland L 77 - 84 25%
 Sun, Feb 15 271 @Detroit Mercy W 76 - 75 51%
 Wed, Feb 18 299 Cleveland St. W 83 - 75 78%
 Sat, Feb 21 201 Northern Kentucky W 77 - 74 60%
 Wed, Feb 25 268 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 75 - 74 51%
 Sat, Feb 28 244 @Green Bay L 72 - 73 45%
Totals 12 - 16 8 - 12 -3 C- -2 C+ C D C- -1 C- C B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C+ C- C C 34% 13% 53% B- C+ C C C D D C- D C- D B+ D+ D+ 43% 24% 33% C C- C- C+ C B- D- D D-
1.06 60% 37% 34% 0 +1 1.04 30% 1.0 .31 19% .26 70% .18 1.10 64% 33% 36% +2 0 1.06 32% 1.0 .32 19% .36 75% .20
Nov
3		 Pittsburgh F+ A+ F D+ C 29% 8% 63% B- C D F F C- F F F C+ C+ A+ D+ B 45% 21% 33% C B F D+ F A+ F F F
0.90 71% 0% 32% -1 +1 1.02 22% 0.5 .11 18% .17 56% .09 1.13 58% 22% 36% -3 0 0.98 52% 1.1 .55 27% .57 81% .46
Nov
7		 Grand Canyon A+ C+ C+ A A 42% 10% 48% A+ A+ C A+ A A+ A+ A A+ C F A+ A+ B- 53% 28% 19% B- B- F D F B- D A C
1.24 55% 40% 39% +3 +2 1.10 26% 1.6 .42 12% .47 80% .38 1.12 79% 20% 0% -4 0 0.94 44% 1.1 .50 18% .37 68% .25
Nov
15		 St. Bonaventure B- B F D- D+ 40% 8% 52% A- C- C+ A+ A+ C- B- F C- D+ F F+ F F 49% 26% 26% D+ F D+ B- C A- F A- D-
1.14 65% 25% 31% -1 +2 1.04 31% 1.8 .56 19% .32 67% .21 1.20 70% 50% 50% +15 0 1.32 38% 0.9 .35 21% .36 70% .25
Nov
19		 Toledo D- D+ D- A C+ 38% 6% 56% B C+ D+ A+ B F C- D- D+ D F A+ F F+ 56% 19% 26% F F+ F A C B- F F F
1.01 56% 33% 41% +5 +2 1.15 32% 1.2 .39 30% .23 67% .15 1.23 77% 10% 43% +9 +2 1.22 36% 0.8 .29 17% .42 85% .36
Nov
23		 UNC Greensboro F D D+ F+ F 23% 30% 47% F F D- F F F F C+ F+ A- F D A+ D- 22% 45% 33% A+ C- B- A+ A- A+ D+ C+ D+
0.86 54% 35% 30% -5 -2 0.88 24% 0.6 .14 18% .19 73% .13 0.94 82% 41% 25% +2 -4 0.98 24% 0.8 .19 24% .40 68% .27
Nov
24		 Georgia Southern F C- A C- C- 39% 10% 51% C+ C- C- B B- F C D+ C A B- F A+ B 41% 12% 47% C- B B A+ A+ B+ A- F C+
0.99 56% 50% 33% 0 +1 1.05 35% 1.2 .42 28% .37 72% .27 0.90 50% 67% 22% -8 +1 0.88 24% 0.6 .14 19% .27 87% .24
Nov
28		 Chicago St. C+ A A+ A+ A+ 24% 7% 69% C- A F A- F+ C+ F D- F B- D+ B+ A- C+ 27% 51% 22% A+ B D B+ C C+ D+ F D-
1.24 77% 75% 42% +16 +1 1.35 23% 1.3 .29 18% .24 71% .17 0.91 57% 31% 27% -6 -5 0.80 32% 0.8 .24 17% .29 82% .24
Dec
3		 Wright St. D- C- D- F D- 52% 14% 34% A- D A+ A- A+ F A F C+ B+ D+ F A+ C- 56% 19% 26% F+ D+ A+ F A- B F A+ D
1.00 57% 33% 27% -5 +2 0.95 44% 1.2 .53 25% .39 60% .23 0.99 63% 63% 18% +1 +2 1.07 17% 1.6 .27 19% .50 54% .27
Dec
6		 IU Indianapolis C B+ D+ A B 50% 13% 37% C+ B A- F D+ F D+ F F A+ C A- A+ A+ 33% 28% 39% B A+ D+ A+ A+ B- F C+ F
1.17 70% 33% 41% +9 +2 1.24 45% 0.9 .41 24% .35 61% .22 0.82 60% 31% 17% -11 -1 0.76 30% 0.5 .16 18% .35 68% .24
Dec
17		 Robert Morris B- A+ A+ A+ A+ 35% 5% 59% B A+ B+ A- A F A+ C+ A+ D A+ F+ F C- 46% 21% 33% D C- F A+ C D- F F F
1.15 77% 100% 45% +20 +2 1.46 37% 1.1 .42 33% .49 77% .38 1.19 42% 45% 47% 0 0 1.04 50% 0.8 .38 15% .37 76% .28
Dec
20		 South Carolina Upstate D C+ F+ B+ B- 39% 15% 46% C+ B- D+ F F D- A+ D+ A+ B- C+ A+ A- A- 36% 34% 30% A A- B+ F D+ B F F+ F
1.04 61% 29% 38% +3 +1 1.09 28% 0.6 .17 18% .50 69% .35 0.92 53% 25% 29% -9 -2 0.81 23% 1.3 .29 20% .44 76% .33
Dec
29		 Detroit Mercy F C F F+ F 22% 13% 65% D F C F F+ B D+ D+ D C C+ D F F 24% 42% 33% B+ F+ C- A+ A A- F B F
0.98 58% 14% 29% -8 0 0.85 33% 0.7 .24 11% .32 70% .23 1.05 55% 42% 47% +7 -4 1.09 33% 0.5 .17 20% .45 72% .32
Jan
1		 Oakland B+ A+ F D D- 31% 12% 58% B D A- A A+ A A+ B- A+ F F A+ F F 41% 24% 34% B F B- F+ C- C F C+ F
1.26 75% 0% 30% -3 +1 0.98 42% 1.2 .49 11% .34 75% .25 1.29 76% 20% 50% +12 0 1.24 28% 1.3 .36 14% .60 74% .44
Jan
4		 Northern Kentucky D F+ D- D- F 35% 15% 50% C+ F F+ C+ D- A+ C F D- D- B- D+ F F 54% 10% 37% F F C F F+ C+ F F+ F
1.01 48% 33% 30% -7 0 0.88 25% 1.2 .29 13% .34 57% .19 1.20 54% 40% 47% +5 +3 1.17 30% 1.3 .40 18% .50 78% .39
Jan
7		 Purdue Fort Wayne D- F F F F 44% 6% 50% B+ F B A+ A+ F+ C+ B- B- C- B- A F D 28% 23% 49% A C- D- A+ C+ B- F F+ F
1.04 48% 0% 25% -14 +2 0.79 41% 1.5 .62 24% .28 79% .22 1.07 54% 27% 43% +3 -1 1.06 26% 0.8 .20 17% .40 77% .31
Jan
15		 Wright St. A F A+ B- C- 39% 10% 51% B C B A+ A+ B D- A D+ F F A+ F D- 46% 42% 12% A+ C- F F F F F F F
1.27 47% 60% 36% 0 +1 1.04 36% 1.6 .58 15% .25 79% .20 1.42 74% 24% 50% +4 -2 1.06 52% 1.3 .69 11% .48 86% .41
Jan
17		 Cleveland St. D+ A+ A+ F D- 29% 7% 64% B- D A- F F B D+ A+ C D+ D+ B- F F 44% 9% 47% F F A+ F C B F C- F
1.13 81% 100% 22% 0 +1 1.04 44% 0.5 .20 13% .27 88% .23 1.16 60% 33% 50% +12 +2 1.29 18% 1.5 .27 22% .72 77% .55
Jan
22		 Green Bay A- C+ A+ A A 18% 11% 71% C A B B+ B+ D+ B+ A+ A F+ D- D F F 53% 18% 29% D F D A+ B B- C F D
1.33 63% 80% 41% +13 0 1.27 34% 1.3 .45 15% .39 82% .32 1.22 65% 44% 43% +9 +1 1.22 28% 0.7 .20 18% .35 84% .29
Jan
24		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee F D- A+ F F 47% 4% 49% A- F+ C+ F F F B+ C+ B+ B B F B+ B 56% 8% 36% F C A- F+ C+ C+ C- C- C-
0.95 52% 50% 27% -7 +3 0.93 32% 0.6 .21 24% .39 75% .29 0.96 50% 50% 28% -7 +3 0.94 26% 1.2 .31 16% .28 69% .19
Jan
30		 IU Indianapolis D+ A A+ A- A 35% 7% 58% C A- F+ F F F+ A+ A+ A+ C- C+ A+ F C 39% 24% 37% C- C C+ F F B C+ F D+
1.16 73% 67% 40% +13 +1 1.30 29% 0.9 .25 23% .52 86% .44 1.04 57% 23% 40% -1 0 1.00 26% 1.7 .43 19% .17 90% .15
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 Purdue Fort Wayne A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 43% 4% 53% A- A+ F A+ C B- F F F B+ F+ D+ B+ D+ 45% 20% 35% C D+ A+ A+ A+ C- B- C- B-
1.42 76% 50% 58% +27 +2 1.61 21% 1.8 .37 19% .12 67% .08 0.96 68% 40% 29% +3 0 1.08 10% 0.0 .00 14% .20 73% .15
Feb
7		 Robert Morris D- A+ F F C 50% 6% 44% A C+ D- D- D- D F C F D+ D A B B- 38% 23% 40% C B- F F F B- A+ F B+
1.02 72% 0% 27% 0 +3 1.08 23% 0.9 .20 19% .15 75% .11 1.12 61% 27% 32% -3 0 0.96 42% 1.5 .65 20% .14 86% .12



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.3 0.6 0.9 3rd
4th 0.0 2.0 1.0 3.0 4th
5th 1.0 4.7 0.4 6.0 5th
6th 0.4 8.0 3.5 0.0 11.9 6th
7th 5.3 11.4 0.6 17.3 7th
8th 2.8 16.8 3.8 23.4 8th
9th 0.8 10.1 8.2 0.1 19.2 9th
10th 1.2 7.7 8.4 0.8 18.1 10th
11th 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
Total 1.4 8.6 21.3 31.5 24.4 10.9 2.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 2.0% 18.3% 18.3% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.6
10-10 10.9% 11.1% 11.1% 14.8 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.1 9.7
9-11 24.4% 7.7% 7.7% 15.4 0.0 1.0 0.8 22.5
8-12 31.5% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.1 1.6 29.8
7-13 21.3% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.9 20.4
6-14 8.6% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.3 8.3
5-15 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 1.4
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 15.5 93.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 13.9 2.8 19.4 58.3 19.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%
Lose Out 0.7%