Youngstown St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.5#195
Expected Predictive Rating-1.0#182
Pace71.2#116
Improvement+4.8#11

Offense
Total Offense-3.7#279
First Shot-3.8#293
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#171
Layup/Dunks-4.1#317
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#277
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#193
Freethrows+2.4#58
Improvement+4.0#4

Defense
Total Defense+2.1#111
First Shot+2.9#90
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#251
Layups/Dunks-0.9#204
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#89
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#39
Freethrows-1.2#267
Improvement+0.9#119
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.2% 13.1% 9.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.5 14.9
.500 or above 85.9% 90.0% 74.6%
.500 or above in Conference 93.8% 94.6% 91.7%
Conference Champion 26.8% 28.6% 21.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 0.8%
First Round11.9% 12.9% 9.3%
Second Round0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina Upstate (Away) - 73.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 34 - 54 - 7
Quad 414 - 618 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 360   @ Chicago St. W 80-60 82%     1 - 0 +8.8 +1.2 +6.8
  Nov 11, 2024 38   @ Ohio St. L 47-81 7%     1 - 1 -19.3 -19.2 -0.2
  Nov 16, 2024 95   @ Syracuse L 95-104 2OT 17%     1 - 2 -0.3 +4.2 -2.5
  Nov 21, 2024 272   Monmouth W 72-62 67%     2 - 2 +4.0 -7.2 +10.7
  Nov 22, 2024 250   Presbyterian L 42-67 63%     2 - 3 -29.9 -32.3 +1.5
  Nov 23, 2024 217   @ Stephen F. Austin L 57-64 42%     2 - 4 -6.6 -7.0 +0.1
  Nov 27, 2024 296   Western Michigan L 62-73 79%     2 - 5 -21.2 -14.1 -7.5
  Dec 04, 2024 259   @ Robert Morris W 72-58 53%     3 - 5 1 - 0 +11.7 -3.1 +14.1
  Dec 07, 2024 206   Oakland W 66-50 63%     4 - 5 2 - 0 +10.9 +0.0 +13.3
  Dec 14, 2024 211   Toledo W 93-87 65%     5 - 5 +0.5 +11.4 -11.1
  Dec 18, 2024 154   @ Wright St. W 80-70 33%     6 - 5 3 - 0 +13.1 +6.3 +6.8
  Dec 21, 2024 338   @ South Carolina Upstate W 79-72 74%    
  Dec 29, 2024 323   Detroit Mercy W 75-64 84%    
  Jan 01, 2025 354   @ IU Indianapolis W 74-66 78%    
  Jan 04, 2025 144   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 75-80 32%    
  Jan 08, 2025 214   Northern Kentucky W 69-65 65%    
  Jan 11, 2025 224   Cleveland St. W 71-66 68%    
  Jan 17, 2025 137   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 72-78 30%    
  Jan 19, 2025 333   @ Green Bay W 78-72 70%    
  Jan 22, 2025 259   Robert Morris W 72-65 73%    
  Jan 30, 2025 154   Wright St. W 74-73 56%    
  Feb 01, 2025 354   IU Indianapolis W 77-63 90%    
  Feb 06, 2025 206   @ Oakland L 65-67 41%    
  Feb 08, 2025 323   @ Detroit Mercy W 72-67 66%    
  Feb 12, 2025 144   Purdue Fort Wayne W 78-77 54%    
  Feb 16, 2025 224   @ Cleveland St. L 68-69 45%    
  Feb 21, 2025 137   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 75-74 51%    
  Feb 23, 2025 333   Green Bay W 81-69 86%    
  Mar 01, 2025 214   @ Northern Kentucky L 66-68 43%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 3.0 6.8 7.6 5.3 2.7 0.8 0.1 26.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 4.0 8.2 6.2 2.1 0.4 0.0 21.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.6 7.6 4.0 0.6 0.1 16.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.7 5.9 3.3 0.5 0.0 12.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.5 2.9 0.3 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.1 2.4 0.4 0.0 7.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 4.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.6 6.5 10.2 13.2 15.6 15.7 13.6 9.7 5.7 2.7 0.8 0.1 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
18-2 99.5% 2.7    2.6 0.1
17-3 93.7% 5.3    4.6 0.7 0.0
16-4 78.1% 7.6    5.2 2.2 0.2
15-5 49.9% 6.8    3.1 3.0 0.7 0.1
14-6 19.1% 3.0    0.5 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.0
13-7 2.8% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 26.8% 26.8 16.9 7.3 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 42.4% 42.4% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
19-1 0.8% 37.3% 37.3% 13.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5
18-2 2.7% 27.0% 27.0% 13.4 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 2.0
17-3 5.7% 24.8% 24.8% 13.8 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 4.3
16-4 9.7% 20.7% 20.7% 14.2 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.6 0.0 7.7
15-5 13.6% 17.1% 17.1% 14.6 0.1 0.9 1.1 0.2 11.3
14-6 15.7% 13.1% 13.1% 15.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.4 13.6
13-7 15.6% 9.9% 9.9% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.5 14.1
12-8 13.2% 7.3% 7.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.5 12.2
11-9 10.2% 4.9% 4.9% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 9.7
10-10 6.5% 2.8% 2.8% 15.8 0.0 0.2 6.3
9-11 3.6% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 3.6
8-12 1.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.6
7-13 0.6% 0.6
6-14 0.2% 0.2
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 12.2% 12.2% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.7 4.7 2.2 87.9 0.0%