Detroit Mercy
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.2 #286
Expected Predictive Rating -6.6 #272
Pace 71.6 #102
Improvement +2.7 #58

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #260 D- C- B- C- F
Defense #300 D+ D+ D- D+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #340 1.11 #244 -5.3 #339
2 Pt. Jumpers 36% #4 0.75 #184 +5.9 #7
Three Pointers 33% #334 0.94 #268 -5.5 #333
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #314 -4.8 #316
Freethrows 15.2 #286 78% #27 11.9 #216
Second Chance 31.7% #151 0.95 #295 0.30 #213
Turnovers 15.2% #101
Total Offense -3.1 #260

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #151 1.20 #235 -1.5 #231
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #328 0.67 #56 +2.6 #18
Three Pointers 45% #71 1.07 #264 -3.3 #312
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #248 -2.2 #249
Freethrows 19.7 #303 70% #69 13.8 #274
Second Chance 31.4% #218 1.14 #295 0.36 #270
Turnovers 13.7% #330
Total Defense -4.2 #300

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -5.2% #361 1.6% #313
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.4% #247 2.7% #227
Possession Length 17.2 #159 16.4 #41
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #178 0.21 #292
Improvement +1.0 #125 +1.7 #81

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 2.2% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 1.7% 4.1% 0.6%
.500 or above in Conference 24.5% 43.9% 16.2%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 0.3% 2.2%
First Four1.0% 1.4% 0.8%
First Round1.0% 1.6% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oakland (Home) - 29.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 82 - 12
Quad 48 - 610 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 151 @Illinois-Chicago L 71 - 91 16% -6  0 - 1 -16 -7 F F C -7 D- F B+
 Fri, Nov 7 84 @Notre Dame L 70 - 102 6% -17  0 - 2 -22 -3 B- D+ F -17 D- F F
 Sat, Nov 15 166 @Toledo L 83 - 90 18% -4  0 - 3 -5 +2 D D+ B -6 F C A-
 Tue, Nov 18 198 Eastern Michigan L 62 - 72 43% +1  0 - 4 -16 -12 F C- C- -4 D+ C B+
 Fri, Nov 21 11 @Michigan St. L 56 - 84 1% -16  0 - 5 -5 -1 B- C F -5 B+ F C
 Sun, Nov 23 99 @DePaul L 75 - 95 8% -6  0 - 6 -12 +11 A- C C+ -24 F F F
 Sat, Nov 29 352 @Niagara W 70 - 66 60% +6  1 - 6 -6 -2 F C B -4 D C- F
 Wed, Dec 3 337 IU Indianapolis W 92 - 78 75% +10  2 - 6 1 - 0 -0 +9 F A+ A+ -9 C C- D
 Sat, Dec 6 316 @Cleveland St. W 71 - 59 47% +4  3 - 6 2 - 0 +6 -1 F F A+ +8 A+ F B-
 Sun, Dec 14 212 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 77 - 81 25% -2  3 - 7 2 - 1 -4 +6 F C- A+ -10 C- C F
 Mon, Dec 29 213 @Youngstown St. W 73 - 68 25% +7  4 - 7 3 - 1 +5 +0 C+ F D+ +5 A+ A+ F
 Fri, Jan 2 200 Robert Morris L 77 - 85 44% -0  4 - 8 3 - 2 -14 +2 B- B F -16 C+ F C+
 Fri, Jan 9 154 Wright St. L 82 - 84 33% -6  4 - 9 3 - 3 -5 +6 D A+ A- -11 F A- C
 Sun, Jan 11 316 Cleveland St. W 94 - 84 69% +11  5 - 9 4 - 3 -2 +5 B- B F -8 F A+ C-
 Thu, Jan 15 178 @Northern Kentucky L 71 - 96 20% -12  5 - 10 4 - 4 -23 -6 F B A+ -16 F C F
 Sat, Jan 17 337 @IU Indianapolis W 80 - 77 54% -1  6 - 10 5 - 4 -5 -4 F F C -1 B F B-
 Wed, Jan 21 212 Purdue Fort Wayne L 76 - 83 46% -2  6 - 11 5 - 5 -13 -2 F F B+ -11 D+ B- F
 Sat, Jan 24 139 Oakland L 80 - 86 30%
 Fri, Jan 30 178 Northern Kentucky L 77 - 80 39%
 Wed, Feb 4 248 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 76 - 81 31%
 Sat, Feb 7 255 @Green Bay L 72 - 77 31%
 Thu, Feb 12 154 @Wright St. L 70 - 81 16%
 Sun, Feb 15 213 Youngstown St. L 76 - 77 46%
 Fri, Feb 20 248 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 79 - 78 52%
 Sun, Feb 22 255 Green Bay W 75 - 74 53%
 Wed, Feb 25 200 @Robert Morris L 72 - 80 24%
 Sat, Feb 28 139 @Oakland L 77 - 89 15%
Totals 9 - 18 8 - 12 -7 -3 D- C- B- -4 D+ D+ D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 2.9 1.0 0.0 4.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 4.3 2.9 0.2 0.0 8.0 5th
6th 0.4 5.0 5.9 0.7 12.0 6th
7th 0.3 4.7 9.9 2.4 0.1 17.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 5.4 13.1 4.7 0.2 23.9 8th
9th 1.0 6.7 11.7 5.0 0.2 24.5 9th
10th 1.3 3.1 1.6 0.1 6.0 10th
11th 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
Total 2.5 10.4 18.9 23.3 20.4 13.7 7.3 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-6 57.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 11.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.1% 19.0% 19.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.8% 8.3% 8.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.7
12-8 2.5% 7.4% 7.4% 15.4 0.1 0.1 2.3
11-9 7.3% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.0 0.3 7.0
10-10 13.7% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.3 13.4
9-11 20.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 20.2
8-12 23.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.2 23.1
7-13 18.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 18.8
6-14 10.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 10.4
5-15 2.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.5
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 15.9 98.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.8%